市场资讯及洞察

在使用 TradingView 的 Pine Script 进行策略或指标开发时，operators（运算符）是最基础却也最关键的组成部分。无论是数据计算、条件判断，还是逻辑组合，都离不开这些运算符的参与。理解并熟练掌握 operators 的运作方式，不仅能提高脚本编写的效率，也能让策略逻辑更加清晰严谨。本文将对 TradingView 中常见的运算符类型做一个简明介绍，以帮助读者快速建立完整的概念框架。

‍1. Arithmetic operators（算术运算符）：主要用于数值计算，是构建指标公式的核心。例如 +、-、*、/ 用来执行加减乘除；% 则用于取余数。在编写移动平均、价差、振幅等计算时，这类运算符是最常见的基础工具。

‍2. Comparison operators（比较运算符）：用于比较两个值的大小或相等性，如 >、<、>=、<=、== 和 !=。这些运算符通常出现在条件语句中，例如判断价格是否突破均线、成交量是否高于过去均值等。比较运算的结果为布尔值（true/false），为策略信号的触发提供依据。

‍3. Logical operators（逻辑运算符）：则负责将多个条件组合在一起，例如 and、or、not。通过逻辑运算符，可以形成更复杂的交易规则，例如“价格突破阻力位 且 成交量放大”或“满足任意一个指标信号即触发”等。

‍4. Ternary operators: 在 Pine Script 中，?: 三元运算符（Ternary Operator）是一种紧凑而强大的条件表达方式。通常在编写脚本时，我们需要根据某个条件返回不同的结果，而最常见的方式是使用 if…else 条件结构。然而，当你希望在一行中表达逻辑、或在表达式内根据条件动态赋值时，传统的条件语句显得冗长，这时三元运算符就成为更优雅的选择。三元运算符的语法结构如下：condition ? valueWhenConditionIsTrue : valueWhenConditionIsFalse它的工作方式非常直观：如果 condition 为 true，则返回 valueWhenConditionIsTrue；若为 false，则返回 valueWhenConditionIsFalse。正因如此，它常用于快速返回基于条件判断的结果，而无需展开完整的条件语句。举例如下：timeframe.isintraday ? color.red :timeFrame.isdaily ? color.green :timeframe.ismonthly ? color.blue : na这个表达式会从左到右依序判断条件：首先检查 timeframe.isintraday，若成立则返回 color.red；否则继续判断 timeframe.isdaily。如为 true，则返回 color.green；否则进入下一层判断 timeframe.ismonthly。如果此条件成立，则返回 color.blue，若不成立，最终返回 na。

‍5. History – referencing operators:在 Pine Script 中，可以使用 [] 历史引用运算符（history-referencing operator）来引用时间序列的过去数值。过去的数值指的是脚本在当前柱（current bar）执行时，变量在之前的柱（past bars）中所具有的值。[] 运算符被放置在变量、表达式或函数调用之后。方括号中的数值代表我们希望引用的过去的偏移量。例如，如果想引用当前柱之前第 2 根柱的 volume（成交量）值，可以写作：volume[2]由于时间序列会随着脚本在每一根新柱上运行而动态增长，因此固定的历史偏移量在不同柱上会对应不同的实际数据。下面我们来看看为什么同一个偏移量会得到动态变化的结果，也了解时间序列为何与数组（arrays）截然不同。在 Pine Script 中，变量 close（或等价写法 close[0]）表示当前柱的收盘价。如果脚本正在数据集（dataset，即图表上的所有柱）中的第 3 根柱上运行：

• close 保存的是第 3 根柱的收盘价
• close[1] 保存的是第 2 根柱的收盘价
• close[2] 保存的是第 1 根柱的收盘价
• close[3] 将返回 na，因为该位置不存在柱，因此没有可用数值

当相同的代码运行到下一根柱（数据集中的第 4 根柱）时：

• close 变为第 4 根柱的收盘价
• close[1] 现在指向第 3 根柱的收盘价
• 第 1 根柱的收盘价现在变为 close[3] 所对应
• close[4] 此时返回 na

在 Pine Script 的运行环境中，脚本会从图表最左侧开始，对数据集中每一根历史柱执行一次。当计算进入下一根柱时，Pine Script 会在序列（series）的索引 0 处加入一个新元素，并将已有元素的索引依序向后移动。相比之下，数组（arrays）可以具有固定或可变大小，但其数据内容与索引结构不会被运行环境自动改变。因此，Pine Script 的时间序列（series）与数组本质上非常不同，它们唯一相似之处仅在于都使用索引语法。当图表所对应的市场处于开盘状态，并且脚本在图表的最后一根柱（实时柱，realtime bar）上运行时，close 返回的是当前价格。只有在该实时柱最终收盘、脚本最后一次在此柱执行时，close 才会包含该柱实际的收盘价。Pine Script 提供了一个变量 bar_index 来指示脚本当前正在执行的柱号：

• 在第一根柱上，bar_index = 0
• 每当脚本在下一根柱执行时，其值会加 1
• 在最后一根柱上，bar_index 等于数据集中的柱数减一

在 Pine Script 中使用 [] 运算符时有另一项重要注意事项：历史引用可能会返回 na。na 表示一个非数字值，任何表达式只要使用到 na，最终结果也会变成 na（类似 NaN 的概念）。这种情况常见于脚本在数据集前几根柱执行时，但在某些条件下也可能出现在后面的柱中。如果你的代码未使用 na() 或 nz() 等函数明确处理这些特殊情况，na 值可能会导致错误的计算结果，并影响一直到实时柱为止的所有计算。6. Assignment and reassignment operators:= 运算符用于为已声明的变量赋予初始值或引用。它表示这是一个新的变量，并且以这个值开始。:= 则用于为已经存在的变量重新赋值。它的含义是：使用脚本中先前声明过的这个变量，并为它赋予一个新值。那些先声明、然后再使用 := 进行重新赋值的变量，被称为可变变量（mutable variables）。以下所有示例都是有效的变量重新赋值方式。举例如下：var float pHi = napHi := nz(ta.pivothigh(5, 5), pHi)var 关键字告诉 Pine Script：我们只希望这个变量在数据集的第一根柱上被初始化为na。float 关键字则告诉编译器我们正在声明一个浮点类型（float） 的变量。虽然变量声明由于使用了 var 只会在第一根柱上执行，但下面这行代码：pHi := nz(ta.pivothigh(5, 5), pHi)会在图表上的每一根柱上执行。在每根柱上，该语句首先检查 ta.pivothigh() 是否返回 na —— 因为当函数没有找到新的枢轴点（pivot）时，它确实会返回 na。nz() 函数负责执行“检查 na”这个动作：

• 当 nz() 的第一个参数（ta.pivothigh(5, 5)）为 na 时，它会返回第二个参数 pHi；
• 当 ta.pivothigh() 找到新的枢轴点并返回其价格时，这个值就会被赋给 pHi。

因此，当找到新枢轴点时，我们更新 pHi；而当没有新枢轴出现、函数返回 na 时，我们再次将原来的 pHi 赋值给自己，从而保持先前的数值不变。7. Compound assignment operators:复合赋值运算符（compound assignment operator）将算术运算符与重新赋值运算符组合在一起。它提供了一种简写方式，用于对变量执行算术运算并将结果重新赋值给同一个变量。例如，counter += 1 会在 counter 当前值的基础上加 1，并将加过之后的新值重新赋给 counter。这与写成 counter := counter + 1 的效果完全相同。需要注意的是，变量必须在使用复合赋值运算符之前已被声明。通过以上内容，我们系统地梳理了 Pine Script 中最常用的几类运算符，包括三元运算符、历史引用运算符 []、变量的声明与重新赋值方式，以及更便捷的复合赋值运算符。这些看似基础的语法结构，实际上构成了 Pine Script 在处理时间序列数据、编写策略逻辑与构建指标时的核心基础。

Markets found support last Friday after what was the worst week for global markets since Liberation Day.

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Shortened Thanksgiving Week

‍This week, Thanksgiving Day impacts the US trading schedule, affecting both liquidity and data timing. Despite the shortened week, it's still packed with key releases. The PCE index, US PPI, retail sales, GDP, and weekly jobs figures are set for a concentrated release on Wednesday, before the Thursday holiday.

‍Australian CPI in Focus

‍Australian CPI data also drops on Wednesday, and it's shaping up to be a crucial number. With strong signals from the RBA indicating a Christmas interest rate cut is unlikely, this inflation reading could either reinforce or challenge the RBA's stance — a must-watch for any surprises that might move rate expectations.

‍Gold Coiling

‍Gold has established a strong base above $4,000. The chart shows six consecutive weekly candles testing support around $4,065, with clear rejection of downside moves. This pattern suggests insufficient selling pressure to push prices lower, potentially setting the stage for a move back toward $4,200-$4,250 if buyers step in.

‍Bitcoin Under Pressure

‍Bitcoin is experiencing another wave of selling. The weekend brought some respite with a bounce off $84,000, but the current support level sits at $82,000—a level we haven't seen since April. While there may be short-covering opportunities toward $92,000, the buyer momentum looks weak, and another test of $82,000 support appears equally likely.

Market Insights

Watch Mike Smith's analysis for the week ahead in markets.

Key Economic Events

Stay up to date with the key economic events of the week.

作为AI算力领域的绝对龙头，英伟达2026财年第三季度财报亮点密集，用实打实的数据印证了行业热度，也直接回应了市场核心疑问，成为科技产业的“强心剂”。

财报核心数据表现尤为强劲：收入环比增长22%、同比飙升62%，单季收入净增100亿美元，第四季度收入指引高达650亿美元，按此节奏全年收入有望冲击2000亿美元规模，增长势头迅猛。盈利端同样亮眼，本季度毛利率达到73.4%，虽同比略有波动但环比持续提升，公司更明确给出未来毛利率迈向75%的目标；运营收入与净利润均实现65%的同比增幅，每股收益年化增长67%，盈利质量与增长速度双双在线。

现金流与股东回报形成良性循环，第三季度自由现金流高达220亿美元，充沛资金既支撑了公司在AI芯片研发、产能扩张上的持续投入，上季度还拿出120亿美元用于分红和股票回购，实现了“研发扩产-利润增长-股东回馈”的正向循环。

针对市场最关心的两大问题，答案清晰明了：AI绝非短期泡沫，而是万亿级平台型产业变革——全球AI基础设施年投入已达3-4万亿美元，英伟达2026年在Blackwell和Ruby两大核心业务板块已锁定5000亿确定性收入，英国、德国、韩国等多国还在加速建设国家级AI基础设施，产业投入的真实性与持续性毋庸置疑；而电力、内存等潜在发展瓶颈，公司也已提前完成规划部署，无需过度担忧。

投资者反应积极，财报发布后盘后股价涨幅超5%。从长期来看，AI技术渗透各行各业的过程中，算力需求将持续释放，英伟达在GPU领域的技术壁垒和市场份额优势短期内难以撼动，有观点认为，若保持当前发展态势，明年年底其股价突破300美元是大概率事件。

英伟达的亮眼业绩，本质是全球AI产业爆发式增长的缩影。随着AI技术深度融入实体经济，算力作为核心支撑的需求将持续扩大，英伟达也将继续成为观察科技产业变革的重要风向标。

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随着 2025 年行情接近尾声，市场开始将注意力投向 2026 年。利率周期处于尾段，AI 投资进入应用扩张期，而全球主要经济体都在重新权衡增长与通胀，投资者关心的问题回到最核心的一点：美股在明年上半年会怎么走？

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从大摩最新的宏观预测来看，2026 年上半年更可能呈现温和放缓的走势。不是大幅冲高，也不像见顶式下跌，更像是进入了一个“换挡阶段”。市场在消化上一轮快速上涨后的累积增量，同时为下半年可能出现的重新提速做准备。

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美国经济：略有降温，但基本面依旧稳固

各机构的预测普遍认为，2026 年上半年美国经济会略有放缓。关税、移民政策调整带来的滞后影响开始显现，消费增速可能有所回落，一些行业也会进入自然的景气消化期。但更大的背景是，美国经济的底层韧性仍在，尤其是 AI 投资带来的支撑。

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过去几年，AI 投资主要集中在大型科技公司、云服务商和芯片企业。而到 2026 年，这类投入将逐步扩展至制造业、能源、医疗、零售、物流等更广泛的传统行业，意味着固定资产投资不会快速下滑，企业生产率有望继续提升。这将成为拖住经济下限的关键力量。

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经济不强但也不弱的状态，对股市有两个直接影响：不会有明显的下行压力，但也不会出现强刺激驱动的大幅上涨。

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美联储：利率进入平稳区间，不急也不紧

政策环境将成为 2026 年影响市场节奏的重要因素。预期显示，美联储会在明年初把联邦基金利率降到 3.5% 至 3.75% 区间，之后进入为期3个月的静观期。

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这意味着几个变化：

• 货币政策不会继续明显收紧
• 降息节奏也不会特别激进
• 市场对流动性的预期更趋稳定

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这样的利率环境对科技行业尤为有利。一旦长期利率不再上行，大型科技公司的估值压力明显缓解，加上 AI 投资还在继续推进，科技板块仍是支撑大盘的核心力量。从伯克希尔 2025 年 Q3 的持仓变化来看，巴菲特体系首次新增 GOOGL（Alphabet A 类股），虽然仓位占比仅 1.62%，但因为这是“第一次买入”，这意味着巴菲特体系对“AI 必需基础设施”的认可。虽然巴菲特本人多次说“我不懂科技”，但过去几年伯克希尔对科技公司的态度明显软化，尤其是苹果（AAPL）成为伯克希尔最大重仓后，科技类资产的占比逐年上升。本次买进谷歌意味着，谷歌已从“科技成长股”变成伯克希尔眼中的“稳定型现金流企业”，AI 基础设施（尤其是 Google Cloud）被认为有长期稳定价值。

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整体来看，2026 年是政策逐步转为中性的一年，既没有紧货币的紧迫感，也缺乏进一步大规模降息带来的强刺激。因此，市场更可能进入一种稳中偏暖的节奏。

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企业盈利：保持增长，但节奏从快速转向正常

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美股过去两年的强势表现很大程度上来自企业盈利的持续提升。据FactSet统计，2025年第三季度，标普 500 指数的净利润率创下了自 2009 年（FactSet可取得该指标历史数据的起始时间）以来的最高水平，达到 13.0%，超过此前 2021 年第二季度创下的历史高点。本季度也实现了净利润率的连续增长。到 2026 年，这一逻辑仍在延续，只是增速会比 2025 年略有下降。

分析师预测，标普 500 全年盈利增速预计在 15% 左右，而增幅主要来自 2026 年下半年。上半年更像是盈利维持高位、科技板块持续贡献、其他行业稳中略慢的格局。

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从行业表现看，科技、半导体、云计算、网络安全等与 AI 相关的板块仍将是增长主力。医疗健康行业的稳定性也会在明年进一步显现，在高波动的外部环境下，更容易赢得资金的青睐。相较之下，房地产、原材料等行业仍较弱，难以对指数形成直接推动。

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这意味着美股大盘的结构不会出现明显破裂，但上涨动力会比今年柔和一些。

2026 年上半年，美股的走势大概率以震荡上行为主。

第一季度可能表现平平，市场等待降息落地，同时观察经济放缓的幅度。

进入第二季度，盈利预期更加明确之后，指数可能重新启动，向全年目标区间靠拢。

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按照目前机构预测，标普 500 在 2026 年底有望上涨至 7800 点。但上半年不会走得太快，整体呈现平稳攀升的节奏。科技板块依旧是带动大盘的决定性力量。AI 的渗透速度在提升，从服务器和芯片扩展到能源、制造和医疗等实际应用场景，这将使科技行业在经济放缓期依然保持高景气。

对投资者而言，上半年科技板块依旧是最值得关注的方向。即使市场短期出现波动，也更多属于估值消化阶段。要真正引发系统性大跌，通常需要利率重新上行、企业盈利出现断崖式下滑，或发生超预期的重大负面事件，而当前并没有看到这些信号。即使市场出现调整，更可能是结构性回调，例如部分涨幅过大的科技公司短期消化估值，而不是整个市场的趋势反转。

2026 上半年需要的不是激情，而是耐心

如果把 2025 年视为一轮强劲上涨，那么 2026 年上半年更像一段调整节奏的过渡期。经济略有降温、政策逐渐中性、企业盈利保持增长，在这样的组合下，市场不太可能走出暴涨行情，但持续向上的趋势仍然清晰。

对投资者而言，明年上半年更重要的不是追求短期行情，而是稳住仓位、优化配置、在震荡中提前布局下半年的机会。

市场在慢下来，但方向依旧向上。

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NVIDIA delivered a resounding answer to AI bubble concerns this morning, reporting third-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations and signalling sustained momentum in AI infrastructure spending.

The chip giant posted adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $57.01 billion, beating analyst estimates of $1.26 EPS on $54.92 billion.

Revenue surged 62% year-over-year, with the critical data centre segment delivering $51.2 billion against expectations of $49 billion.

More importantly, NVIDIA projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $65 billion, significantly above the $61.66 billion consensus, indicating demand for AI accelerators shows no signs of cooling.

The company's next-generation Blackwell architecture is seeing unprecedented demand from cloud providers building out massive AI infrastructure. CEO Jensen Huang simply stated: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out."

NVIDIA shares had declined nearly 8% in November as prominent investors raised concerns about AI valuations. Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro completely exited its approximately $100 million position, while SoftBank divested $5.8 billion in holdings.

However, the continued capital expenditure by Big Tech customers — Microsoft alone spent nearly $35 billion in its most recent quarter, with roughly half allocated to chips — suggests the buildout phase is far from complete.

Beyond data centres, NVIDIA’s gaming revenue reached $4.3 billion (up 30% year-over-year), professional visualisation generated $760 million (up 56%), and automotive/robotics sales hit $592 million (up 32%).

The near-term trajectory remains strong, with the company continuing to capture the lion's share of AI chip demand in a market showing no signs of saturation.

Experts Split on Bitcoin's Trajectory

Bitcoin is at a vital inflection point, trading around $92,300 after briefly dipping below $90,000 for the first time in seven months.

The pressure stems from retail selling, leveraged trading liquidations, and institutional positioning, creating an environment where experts are split as to whether this is the end of the cycle or just a healthy pullback.

Glassnode data show approximately 65,200 BTC—valued at roughly $6.08 billion—was sold at a loss within 24 hours, indicating capitulation among short-term holders who bought near recent highs.

Yet, while retail investors panic-sell, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased to 1,384, a four-month high. Over 102,000 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 transactions over $1 million have been made this week, potentially making this the most active whale week of 2025.

This accumulation pattern during fear-driven selloffs has historically preceded medium-term recoveries (though past performance offers no guarantees).

For now, the market remains on a knife's edge, with high volatility seemingly the only certainty.

Fed Still Faces Divide as Data Starts Flowing

The Federal Reserve stands at a crossroads heading into its December 9-10 meeting, with internal divisions threatening to derail what was considered a near-certain third consecutive rate cut.

The released minutes of the October FOMC exposed strongly differing views within the Fed about the December policy decision, with many suggesting no more cuts are needed through the end of 2025.

Complicating things further is the data pause from the recent 44-day government shutdown. The Labor Department announced that October and November employment data won't be released until December 16 — six days after the FOMC meeting concludes — depriving the Fed of crucial labor market information.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion," and there is "a growing chorus" among officials to "at least wait a cycle" before cutting again.

This represents the highest level of internal discord during Powell's tenure, with predictions of potentially four or five dissents at the December meeting — the most since 1992.

The December meeting will reveal whether the Fed can maintain the credibility needed to navigate a U.S. economy caught between stubborn inflation and (seemingly) weak labour market.

Every data release and Fed official comment between now and then will move markets as investors search for clues about the Fed’s next move.

A market bubble occurs when asset prices rise far beyond any reasonable valuation.

It is driven by speculation, emotion, and the belief that prices will continue rising indefinitely. 

For traders, the challenge is more about finding a way to manage a bubble, rather than just identifying that one exists.

By their very nature, bubbles can persist far longer than any logical analysis suggests. There are opportunities as they develop, but timing their peak is virtually impossible. 

Understanding their characteristics and having a systematic way of managing bubbles in your trading strategy is worth considering for any trader.

What is a Bubble?

Market bubbles have distinct features that separate them from normal bull markets or even overvalued conditions for a particular asset:

Dramatic Price Appreciation Disconnected From Fundamentals

In a bubble, traditional valuation metrics become meaningless. 

Company or asset fundamentals that usually matter to market participants are ignored in the hope of what might be.

Cash flow, profit margins, competitive positioning, and (in some cases) producing revenue may be dismissed. 

Widespread Participation And "This Time Is Different" Narratives

Bubbles require mass market participation. 

When every headline you see or article you read references "this time is different," or "the old rules don't apply anymore," it is a sign that the collective psychology has shifted from normal caution.

Social media may begin to explode with ever more frequent success stories, and for the individual trader, the fear of missing out becomes increasingly overwhelming.

Credit and Leverage Fuelling Demand

Bubbles are typically accompanied by easier credit conditions. 

When interest rates are lowered and investors are confident in general economic conditions, any spare cash is put to work.

In stock or other market bubbles, you may see retail traders maxing out credit cards to buy call options, with the put/call ratio becoming increasingly distorted.

This leverage often amplifies the rise and the eventual fall, making the risk even more acute and potentially damaging to trader capital.

Vertical Price Charts in Final Stages

One of the telltale signs of a bubble's final phase is a parabolic price chart.

Prices seem to go up daily, and every minor pullback is short-lived (creating more buying pressure). 

This is the euphoria stage. It is where the greatest danger is.

The fear of missing out on further moves is at its highest, and a logical willingness to take profit off the table diminishes in the minds of ever more excited traders.

New participants may continue to enter solely for the way the price is appreciating. Entering into the move only understanding that what they are buying is going up, so they want to join in too.

Bubble vs. Overvalued: Key Differences

Not every expensive market is a bubble. Several characteristics distinguish a bubble from a simpler and far less dangerous overvaluation:

Elevated Valuations With Reasoned Fundamental Justification

An overvalued market has stretched valuations, but can point to real supporting factors (at least to some degree). 

Examples include strong earnings growth, low interest rates, disruption in service or productivity, and providing genuine temporary value.

Even if prices respond to less obvious immediate influencing factors, such as international events, policy changes, and supply issues, the fact that some factors justify continued positive sentiment (even if somewhat unfulfilled) is a positive sign.

Linear or Steady Uptrend

Overvalued markets tend to grind higher with a more sustainable trend rather than a vertical spike. There are normal corrections along the way, even if the highs and lows of a fluctuation are higher. 

Reasonable Participation Levels

There is evidence of institutional investors buying on any dips, but common retracements last days or even weeks.

Retail participation exists but isn't frenzied and plastered all over social media every day or referenced in mainstream media consistently.

Some Scepticism Still Exists

There will be some legitimate and contrary opinions about valuations. Major financial media will present both bearish and bullish cases when a stock is discussed.

Trading Strategies for Potential Bubble Management

Here is the scenario: You bought early in the up move, you are now in profit, but some of the bubble signs are beginning to show up in your thinking.

Tiered Profit-Taking Strategies

Don't try to pick the top. As an alternative approach, begin to scale out systematically with partial closes. This will alleviate the potential for FOMO creeping in. 

You could stage this with set points, e.g. sell 30% when you've doubled, another 30% when you've tripled, 20% when conditions clearly show evidence of entering bubble territory and, having banked a substantial profit already, you keep the final 20% with a trailing stop for the final run if it happens.

Trailing Stops With Wider Bands to Accommodate Volatility

Let’s assume you see the merit in some form of trial stop. In bubble conditions, normal stop distances will get you whipsawed out. Use percentage-based trailing stops or ATR multiples with enough room to accommodate bigger intraday moves.

For example, if your norm is to trail your stop 1.5 x ATR behind price at the end of every candle, then in increasingly volatile conditions during a parabolic move, consider 2,5 x ATR to allow room to move while still offering protection against price collapse.

Reduce Position Sizing and Leverage

The temptation in bubbles is to maximise gains by increasing your margin and entering more and more positions in one asset. 

High leverage and significant single asset exposure in bubble conditions is a potential death sentence to trading capital. 

Recognising the added risks you are contemplating before entry is critical. Combining this with an approach that reduces position sizing and increases margin requirements is consistent with good trading practice as risk increases.

Planned and Rigid Exits

Before buying, you should have already made decisions on what exit approaches you should take and the parameters at which they will be executed, 

Having the exit plan as you enter can limit the chance of getting trapped by greed. Neglecting this and focusing on the opportunity alone can be disastrous.

Never Assume You Can Time the Top

It is usually a big mistake if you believe you will recognise the exact top and exit perfectly. Let’s be frank, even if you hit it lucky once, you won't be able to every time — no one does.

Recognise Behavioural Biases That May Affect Your Judgment

Bubbles can create powerful psychological forces.

Anchoring bias may mean that you fixate on peak prices. Confirmation bias makes you seek information supporting your bullish view and ignore opposing evidence. Recency bias makes you believe the recent trend will continue indefinitely. 

The indisputable key to any bias management is awareness and honesty that some markets may just not be for you (or if they are, to proceed with extreme and continuous caution).

Psychological Preparation for Rapid Reversals

Mentally rehearse the worst scenario and clarity of planned action, e.g., “if it drops 10% in three days, I will ….”.

Having thought through your response and armed with unambiguous exits in advance will make execution easier when emotions run high and begin to dominate. 

Final Thoughts

Extreme valuations, little fundamental underpinning, parabolic price action, and universal bullishness should be part of your bubble identification checklist and flag that your bubble action plan should be implemented.

If you are already in, or tempted to be so, then approach bubbles with honesty, awareness of your trading self and extraordinary discipline to follow through, as predicting what and when things may dramatically turn is close to impossible. 

Never forget you are not smarter than the market, but you can (potentially) be smarter than many traders by planning and doing the right thing.