市场资讯及洞察

The Inside Bar breakout is a price action setup that indicates a short-term consolidation within the broader context of an existing trend — and a potential confirmation that the trend may be continuing.It is a candle that forms entirely within the outer points of wicks that formed from the previous candle. This previous candle, often referred to as the mother bar, is critical in the formation of this price pattern.This setup indicates a pause in market momentum (the market “catching its breath”) during the course of a trend before choosing whether to continue its move in that direction.When price compresses into an inside bar, buyers and sellers are in temporary balance. The eventual breakout from this pause is where the potential opportunity lies for traders, when aligned with the prevailing trend.As with all chart patterns, the setup is not complete until a breakout and confirmation candle are seen in the chosen direction.

Bearish Inside Bar Breakout

A bearish breakout occurs when the price breaks below the low of the mother bar following the formation of an inside bar. This shows that sellers have regained or confirmed control after a period of consolidation.

• A: Mother bar → a candle within a trend that sets the boundaries of the setup based on the high and low of its range
• B: Inside bar → a smaller candle that is contained entirely within the mother bar, showing indecision or temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
• C: Breakout and confirmation → price breaks below the low of the mother bar, confirmed by a bearish candle close, showing sellers taking control.

On occasion, you may see a double inside bar where two bars trade within the range of the mother bar before finally breaking out.Although some people may see this as not a pure inside bar, the market psychology behind the move has not changed.You can see a real chart example of this on the 4-hourly Nasdaq futures (NDX100) CFD chart, where there was a one-candle pause before continuation of the prevailing downtrend following a reversal to the downside.

Bullish Inside Bar Breakout

A bullish breakout occurs when the price breaks above the high of the mother bar following an inside bar. This demonstrates that buyers have reasserted control after the pause.

• A: Mother bar → an initial large candle showing a defined range.
• B: Inside bar → a small consolidation candle within the mother bar, often reflecting hesitation or equilibrium.
• C: Breakout and confirmation → a bullish candle closes above the high of the mother bar, showing buyers are ready to push higher.

This reflects the market psychology where selling pressure was absorbed during the consolidation for one candle before renewed buying momentum.You can see a real chart example of this on the 30-minute EURJPY, where a strong move to the upside on the mother bar was temporarily halted, followed by the confirmation bar resulting in a 50 pip move upwards.

Stop Placement and Exits

Risk management is central to the inside bar strategy:

• For bearish setups, stops are often placed above the high of the mother bar.
• For bullish setups, stops are typically placed below the low of the mother bar.

Profit management exit strategies vary depending on the risk profile of the trader and should be articulated in a trading plan. These can include:

• Setting a fixed risk-to-reward level (e.g., 2:1).
• Using trailing stops as price moves continue to move in your desired direction, locking in profits during the life of the trade.
• From a profit target perspective, approaches that target logical chart levels, such as recent swing highs/lows or nearby support/resistance zones, can be considered.

Final Thoughts

The Inside Bar breakout is a flexible strategy that can be seen across different markets and timeframes.Its strength lies in recognising that markets often pause and compress before a potential move in the same direction as the prevailing trend.Its popularity is based on the fact that it can provide both an opportunity for entry when an initial trend move has been missed or an indication that accumulation into an existing position could be worth looking at.By identifying the presence and the range of mother bar, the inside bar, and exercising patience for a decisive breakout, traders aim to capitalise on this temporary contraction and expansion in volatility.As always, practising this setup and making notes on what happens next is crucial to determining your specific approach and developing testable, unambiguous criteria for action.

Last year was the year of the split. Tech titans like Nvidia, Broadcom, and MicroStrategy all executed 10-for-1 stock splits that sent retail investors (rightly or wrongly) into a buying frenzy. But despite multiple major stocks climbing to record-high levels this year — Netflix $1,200, Meta $760, and AutoZone $4,200 — we have yet to see any significant split action in 2025.[caption id="attachment_713144" align="aligncenter" width="668"]

Top stock splits 2024[/caption]

Why Companies Split Their Stock

A stock split is financial engineering. It makes individual shares more affordable without changing the company's underlying value.When a company executes a 4-for-1 split, shareholders receive four shares for every one they previously owned, while the stock price drops to one-quarter of its pre-split level.It doesn’t change the overall market capitalisation of the company or anything from a foundational value perspective.However, it can have some psychological benefits and add flexibility for the company, which can often be enough for markets to rally around it.

Companies typically split their stock for a few key reasons:

Accessibility: High stock prices can deter smaller investors who prefer to buy full shares rather than fractions. A $1,000 stock becomes more psychologically appealing at $100 after a 10-for-1 split.Liquidity: For the same psychological reasons, lower prices often increase trading volume, and the higher liquidity makes the stock even more appealing for further retail investments and lower-risk traders.Employee compensation: Splits give greater flexibility when granting employees shares through stock option programs.Market inclusion: Some indices, particularly the Dow Jones, favour companies with more moderate share prices.

Stock Splits So Far in 2025

Although at a far more measured pace than we saw in 2024, this year has seen some split activity, especially from outside the tech sector.Four prominent non-tech companies have completed forward splits so far in 2025:

• Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE): Announced a 10-for-1 split
• O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): Completed a 15-for-1 split
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR): Executed a 4-for-1 split in June
• Fastenal (FAST): Implemented a 2-for-1 split

However, the tech sector, which dominated split headlines in 2024, has been notably quiet this year.

Next Top Stock Split Candidates

1. Netflix (NFLX) - $1,200+ Per Share

Netflix is the most likely candidate for a 2025 stock split. The company's share price pushed through the $1,200 barrier for the first time following the release of positive financial results for H1 2025.Netflix has conducted two stock splits in the past: a 2-for-1 stock split in 2004, and a 7-for-1 stock split in 2015 when its price hit $650 per share — almost half of what it is currently.Netflix reported 18.9 million new subscribers during Q4 2024 (significantly more than the 8.2 million Wall Street forecast), and its advertising revenue is also expected to double by the end of 2025.If its momentum continues, Netflix executing a split before the end of the year is highly likely.

2. Meta Platforms (META) - $760+ Per Share

Meta is the only member of the Magnificent Seven stocks to never carry out a split. META currency trades at over $760 — a threshold where many companies regularly consider splitting.Meta's winning streak over the past year drove its shares to an all-time high of $790 in August, and it is the top performer in 2025 among the Magnificent Seven.Meta posted earnings beats of $47.5 billion in revenue in July, well above the $44.83 billion expectation, with earnings per share hitting $7.14 compared to the expected $5.89.[caption id="attachment_713146" align="aligncenter" width="946"]

YTD relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks[/caption]There is high speculation that the company could announce its first-ever split before the end of 2025. Its heavy AI spending, including raising 2025 AI expenditures to $66-72 billion, shows Meta’s confidence in its trajectory and would justify a stock split within the next few months.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) - $510 + Per Share

Microsoft currently trades around $510 per share. Its all-time high of $555.45 per share came in July 2025, driven by AI growth and cloud dominance.Microsoft has executed nine stock splits since going public in 1986, with the most recent occurring in 2003, when shares traded around $48.The 22-year gap since the last split is the longest drought in the company's history, with all previous splits occurring below $200 per share.[caption id="attachment_713145" align="aligncenter" width="710"]

History of Microsoft stock splits[/caption]Microsoft is one of only two stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average trading above $500, alongside Goldman Sachs.The Dow's price-weighted structure means higher-priced stocks have disproportionate influence on the index, creating pressure from S&P Dow Jones Indices to maintain balance.There is also a competitive precedent for Microsoft to split. Its long-time rival, Apple, executed a split in 2020 when its stock was in the $450 range. And other tech giants, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have also recently split their stocks, setting a strong precedent for Microsoft to follow.

4. Costco Wholesale (COST) - $960+ Per Share

Costco's consistent growth and near $1000 per share price make it a likely split candidate in the next 6-12 months. The company has split its stock multiple times in the past, but its last split was over 25 years ago in 2000. The stock is up 2,780% since then.Costco’s reported Membership fee revenue increased 10% to $5.3 billion from June 2024 to May 2025, and its overall revenue of $268.78 billion is up 5.94% during the same period.[caption id="attachment_713147" align="aligncenter" width="742"]

Costco’s Operating Income 2015-2024[/caption]Despite the positive numbers, Costco’s management has remained noncommittal when asked about split plans, making timing uncertain despite the strong financial case.

5. AutoZone (AZO) - $4,230+ Per Share

AutoZone's current stock price ironically exceeds the cost of many used cars for which it sells parts.Despite its massive per-share price, AutoZone has avoided splitting since 1994. The company's share buyback programs have nearly halved the share count in the past ten years, pushing the price higher. This massive share price alone puts it firmly on the upcoming split candidate list. However, its history shows that they often delay and defy the split norm.[caption id="attachment_713148" align="aligncenter" width="712"]

Top stock split candidates 2025-2026[/caption]

Stock Splits Are a Result, Not a Cause

Stock splits generate excitement, but they don’t change a business's fundamental value or the total value of the shares owned by shareholders.Although research suggests split stocks often outperform broader markets in the 12 months following the announcement, this is generally a correlation, not a causation.It is the strong business fundamentals that justified the split in the first place that usually lead to market outperformance, rather than the split itself.Anyone considering these stocks should focus on business fundamentals rather than split speculation.That said, stock splits can generate hype and serve as catalysts for broader market attention. If the marketing strategy around the split is done well, it can help the company generate more interest from retail investors than otherwise anticipated.

Looking Ahead

2025 has seen fewer tech company stock splits than 2024, setting the stage for major announcements in the coming months. Companies like Netflix and Meta face increasing pressure to make their shares more accessible as prices reach new highs.The next wave of stock splits will likely come from these established leaders whose strong business performance has driven their share prices to split-warranting levels.Whether these companies ultimately decide to split their stocks remains to be seen, but the fundamental case for each remains strong regardless of corporate actions.

What Is a Bollinger Band Reversal?

The Bollinger Band reversal is a mean-reversion strategy that looks for the price to temporarily overextend beyond its typical range before snapping back inside.It consists of three lines:

1. An upper band
2. A lower band
3. A 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the middle.

The Upper band and Lower band are set at a default level two standard deviations from the SMA.When the price closes outside one of the bands, it often signals significant price momentum. This level of momentum is often followed by "move exhaustion” and subsequently pulls back to a more usual state. If the next move returns price inside the bands, this may offer a possible reversal opportunity. This setup can happen on any timeframe on any asset.As always with any chart pattern, the pattern can only be thought of as complete when there is a confirmation candle. Confluence factors such as where the candle sits in relation to the range (e.g., in the top half for a bullish trade) and increased volume are often considered part of a complete trading plan in the Bollinger Band reversal setup.

Bearish Bollinger Band Reversal

A bearish reversal occurs when the price moves sharply above the upper band, showing extreme buying pressure, but then closes back inside the band. This can suggest the price may have become overextended, and sellers are attempting to regain control.

• A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong upward momentum pushing price above the upper Bollinger Band.
• B: Over-extension → a candle closes outside the band, showing unsustainable momentum.
• C: Re-entry with confirmation → a subsequent bearish candle closes back inside the band, confirming the reversal.

The EURJPY 30-minute chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Bullish Bollinger Band Reversal

A bullish reversal can be seen on a chart when the price falls below the lower band, showing extreme selling pressure, but then closes back inside the lower band. This suggests that the downward trend in price is becoming exhausted, and buyers are stepping in.

• A: Prior decline (bear candles) → strong downward momentum pushing price below the lower Bollinger Band.
• B: Over-extension → a candle closes outside the band, showing unsustainable downside pressure.
• C: Re-entry with confirmation → a subsequent bullish candle closes back inside the band, validating the reversal.

The Gold Futures CFD 1-hourly chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Stop Placement and Exits

Initial risk management stops are generally placed just beyond the candle that closed outside the band:

• In bearish setups: the stop goes above the high of the candle that closed outside the upper band.
• In bullish setups: the stop goes below the low of the candle that closed outside the lower band.

Exit strategies often include:

• Using the 20-period SMA (the “mean” in the mean reversion) as a potential profit target or signal to trail the initial stop level.
• Using a set risk-to-reward ratio, such as 2:1.

Final Thoughts

The Bollinger Band reversal is a popular mean reversion strategy that takes advantage of price extremes. Traders who are developing a formal trading plan with this setup wait for a close outside the bands, a re-entry of price inside the bands (in the opposite direction), and a confirmation candle.In essence, traders are attempting to capitalise on the pullback.It is important to note that price can “walk the bands” for an extended time, so risk management with stop placements should be part of any plan using this setup.Practicing across different market conditions, asset classes, and timeframes will help identify where Bollinger Band reversals are most effective and how best to integrate them into your trading toolbox.

The outside bar is a powerful price action pattern that often signals a potential reversal. Unlike single-wick setups such as a pinbar strategy, the outside bar forms when a candle’s high and low both exceed those of the prior candle, effectively “engulfing” it completely.This wide-ranging bar represents a change in buying or selling pressure and illustrates the decisive battle, with one side clearly emerging stronger by the close. For traders looking at reversal setups, this pattern may provide a clear structural clue that market sentiment has shifted significantly.

Bearish Outside Bar

A bearish outside bar occurs at the end of a bullish upswing in price and sellers move in to overwhelm any buyer volume that is left in the market. The outside bar pushes above the prior candle’s high but then collapses through its low, closing below the low of the previous candle.This sudden failure at higher prices can often signal price move exhaustion of the uptrend and may be the start of a bearish reversal.

• A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong upward movement into resistance.
• B: Outside bar (bearish close) → candle exceeds both high and low of previous candle, closing down.
• C: Confirmation candle (bearish close) → follow-through selling that validates the reversal.

The NZDUSD 1-hourly chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Bullish Outside Bar

A bullish outside bar appears after a decline when buyers step in aggressively. The candle drives below the prior low but then rallies strongly, closing higher and engulfing the prior candle.This shift signals that selling pressure has been absorbed, and buyers are likely taking control.

• A: Prior decline (bear candles) → downside momentum into support.
• B: Outside bar (bullish close) → candle exceeds both high and low of previous candle, closing up.
• C: Confirmation candle (bullish close) → follow-through buying that confirms the reversal.

The AUDJPY daily chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Stop Placement and Exits

A logical stop placement that indicates your trading idea may not have gone as you had hoped it might, and may be a placement beyond the extreme of the outside bar. Therefore:

• In bearish setups, a stop is placed above the high of the outside bar.
• In bullish setups, a stop is placed below the low of the outside bar.

Common additional exit approaches may include:

• Targeting the next key support/resistance zone,
• Using a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1),
• Or trailing stops behind subsequent highs/lows as the price moves in your desired direction to capture extended moves whilst locking in profit,

Final Thoughts

The outside bar is a clear visual signal that suggests a change in the balance of buyers versus sellers, where one side overwhelms the other. It may often offer a high probability of follow-through when it appears at significant levels of support or resistance.Like all setups, outside bars are fallible. For example, choppy markets can generate multiple false signals, so combining the pattern with context trend alignment, confirmation candles, and other confluence factors such as increased volume may help improve signal reliability.As always, it is worth reinforcing that an entry set alone will rarely be successful unless you have robust and unambiguous rules around the primary price action of an outside bar.Testing what these factors are and which confluence factors may work for you across different markets and timeframes is critical in creating a complete trading strategy. Only then should traders add the outside bar to their price action toolbox.

Rather than looking for a reversal, fractal breakouts use the last fractal high (in an uptrend) or last fractal low (in a downtrend) as confirmation of a trend after a retracement in priceIt is a continuation strategy designed to capture momentum once the price has confirmed direction. When price breaks beyond the most recent fractal, it signals that the prevailing trend has the strength to continue.

Bullish Fractal Breakout

A bullish fractal breakout occurs when price pushes above the last swing high (marked by a fractal). This indicates buyers have overcome the previous barrier, and the uptrend may continue after a small pullback in price.Confirmation is strengthened when the breakout candle also closes above both the 14 EMA and the 200 EMA, showing alignment of short-term momentum with long-term trend direction.

A: Prior uptrend (bull candles) → sustained buying pressure pushing toward resistance.B: Fractal high → the last swing high marked by a fractal, acting as a breakout trigger.C: Breakout candle → strong bullish candle closing ABOVE the fractal high (and ideally above both 14 EMA and 200 EMA).You can see a real chart example of this on the 1-hourly Gold (XAUUSD) CFD chart:[caption id="attachment_713057" align="aligncenter" width="722"]

Red squares show the last fractal of note. “E” shows where the entry points could be placed[/caption]

Bearish Fractal Breakout

A bearish fractal breakout occurs when price pushes below the last swing low (marked by a fractal). This shows that sellers have reconfirmed control after a small retracement, and the downtrend is likely to continue.As with the bullish version, the signal is considered stronger if the breakout candle also closes below both the 14 EMA and the 200 EMA.

A: Prior downtrend (bear candles) → sustained selling pressure pushing toward support.B: Fractal low → the last swing low marked by a fractal, acting as a breakout trigger.C: Breakout candle → strong bearish candle closing BELOW the fractal low (and ideally below both 14 EMA and 200 EMA).You can see a real-world example of this on the 1-hourly EURUSD chart: [caption id="attachment_713059" align="aligncenter" width="793"]

Red squares show the last fractal of note. “E” shows where the entry points could be place[/caption]

Stop Placement and Exits for Fractal Breakouts

Stops are logically placed on the opposite side of the breakout fractal:

• For bullish breakouts: The stop goes below the breakout candle or below the prior swing low.
• For bearish breakouts: The stop goes above the breakout candle or above the prior swing high.

Exits can be managed by:

• Targeting the next logical resistance (bullish) or support (bearish) level
• Using a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 2 or 3:1)
• Trailing stops along a moving average (e.g., the 14 EMA).
• Variation: Some suggest a close beneath this (rather than just a touch) may be worth exploring as a variation.

The combination of fractals with moving averages can assist in avoiding weaker signals, but a failure to follow through on this concept is at the basis of exit approaches.

Final Thoughts

The fractal breakout setup is a clean and structured way to trade with the trend. It provides confirmation that buying pressure still exists, even after a recent pullback in price. By waiting for price to confirm beyond the last fractal point, rather than the common “buy on the dip,” you can avoid premature entries and align with the story that price action is telling you.Adding moving average filters, such as the 14 EMA for momentum and the 200 EMA for long-term bias, can significantly improve reliability, though different combinations may suit different market types and timeframes.Like all strategies, it will not always go in your favour, and even if it does, you should endeavour to reduce the amount of “give-back” of potential profit. Breakout ideas can fail, especially in choppy conditions. Risk management and unambiguous pre-defined exit criteria are essential — the only real failure is when you fail to have these in place or fail to execute your risk management.

说到 Hims & Hers（简称 HIMS），很多人第一反应可能是广告里的夫妻健康保健品。但这家公司可不仅仅是卖药的这么简单，而是把线上诊疗、处方药和订阅模式揉到了一起，活生生变成了一个“互联网药房房东”。本文就带你轻松看懂 HIMS 的生意逻辑、护城河，以及它和竞争对手的暗战。一、HIMS 卖的是什么？线上诊所 + 药柜订阅如果把 HIMS 比作一家便利店，它有三个柜台：

• 线上诊所：用户通过 App 就能和医生沟通，常见科室包括脱发、性健康、心理健康、皮肤科。
• 药品订阅：诊断完直接寄药到家门口，常见的防脱发药、ED 仿制药、抗抑郁药、护肤配方都是长期需求。
• 自有品牌：除了处方药，还有洗发水、保健品、护肤品，像是便利店自营的“自有商品区”。

一句话总结：HIMS 卖的不是单次买卖，而是把“看病 + 拿药”打包成一个持续订阅服务。二、钱从哪来？订阅就是收租HIMS 的商业模式和 Adobe 有点神似，都是收租户：

• 订阅收入是绝对大头：根据公司2024 年年报，年底活跃订阅用户接近 170 万，年营收 12 亿美元，大多数来自处方药订阅。
• 根据公司 2024 年年报，HIMS 年营收约 12 亿美元，其中大多数来自处方药订阅。截至 2024 年底，活跃订阅用户接近 170 万。
• 复购率高：用户一旦开药，就会长期续方。比如防脱发和性健康，这些几乎是“刚需 + 长期需求”。
• 毛利率高：靠仿制药和自有品牌，根据往年财报，毛利率稳定在 70% 左右。
• ARR 稳定增长：据公司公告，每季度都能新增 10–15 万订阅用户，相当于租客越来越多，租金自然水涨船高。

所以说，HIMS 就是“药品房东”，用户要长期吃药，就必须持续交租。三、AI 怎么玩？HIMS 的“虚拟小药师”别家 AI 可能主打画画写文案，HIMS 的 AI 更像一个 虚拟药剂师：

• 分诊助手：先帮用户收集症状，降低医生工作量。
• 个性化推荐：根据用药历史和症状反馈，推荐治疗方案。
• 自动续方：让处方管理和复购一键完成，提升留存率。

未来潜力：如果 AI 能真正合规完成“第一诊断”，那就是 HIMS 招到的一个 24 小时不下班的药师。四、护城河：便利、隐私与品牌

• 便利性：不用挂号排队，药送到家。
• 隐私性：尤其是敏感的性健康、心理健康，用户更愿意线上解决。
• 品牌调性：Hims & Hers 把医疗做得“轻松、时尚”，广告更像生活方式品牌，而不是冷冰冰的药企。
• 规模优势：订阅用户多，采购成本低，形成良性循环。

五、对手们：Ro 与传统药店

• Ro（Roman Health）：打法几乎一样，也是互联网医疗新贵。但 Ro 没上市，融资压力大。
• 传统药店（CVS、Walgreens）：巨头也在做数字医疗，但体验笨重，和 HIMS 的轻量 App 差距大。
• 细分专科 App：比如 Talkspace 专注心理健康，但 HIMS 胜在“药 + 服务 + 品牌”的一体化模式。

六、近期关注点

• 订阅增长：市场关注 HIMS 是否能继续保持每季度 10–15 万的新增用户节奏（来源：公司公告）。
• 盈利表现：2024 Q4，HIMS 实现 GAAP 盈利，这是互联网医疗领域的少见案例。能否延续成为行业观察重点。
• AI 应用落地：AI 药剂师能否进一步提升效率与留存率，是投资者和分析师跟进的方向。
• 新药品类拓展：公司在公告和公开采访中提及，正在探索 GLP-1 减肥药和慢病管理市场。

一句话总结HIMS 就像“互联网药房的房东”，靠药品订阅稳定收租；AI 则是新请来的“虚拟药剂师”，帮忙分诊、续方、提升复购；Ro 是隔壁竞争药铺，但融资吃紧；传统药店像老旧百货，转型不利。最终谁能笑到最后，要看年轻人愿意在哪家“药店”长期续租健康。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部