市场资讯及洞察

US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis A hard-fought tug-of-war between bulls and bears played out on the DXY Index after U.S. inflation data crossed the wires. A knee-jerk reaction caused the greenback to plunge, but eventually it was able to recover and move into positive territory due to higher Treasury yields (DXY +0.10% to 103.41). However, a bearish USD outlook is held by economists at Bank of America Global Research, who see a mild recession in the USA for this year as fed cuts to begin only in March 2024. “We expect a mild recession starting mid-2023 and Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024.

For 2023, the market expects a much milder recession, with the Fed still hiking rate 1-2 more times before slightly cutting rates in second half of the year.” “For now, we still hold a bearish USD view for the medium term; 2023 playing out in line with leading indicator historical precedents would increase the upside risk to our bearish USD outlook.” US Dollar Index Technical Analysis The US Dollar index has been trading in a range between $102.6 to $104 for the last 7 days. At the time of writing, Dollar Index is currently trading at $103.93, which is a major level of resistance where price has fallen significantly from in the past (Jan 2017). As seen in the photo below, it shows that price has come up to test this trend line that can be clearly seen on the daily time frame, paired with the consolidation, if this daily candlestick closes below $104 there could be a high probability of the US dollar continuing with its higher time frame downtrend.

A break above this trend line however could indicate a move to the upside.

The EURJPY has been trading under the 142.70 resistance area since the end of December 2022. With the price failing to break through over several occasions, the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen has seen the EURJPY trade beyond the resistance level, signaling the potential for a significant move to the upside. The recent weakness in the Japanese Yen comes not only because of the strength of the DXY but from the announcement of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor.

Kazuo Ueda stated that the BoJ’s current monetary policy is appropriate and that should continue. A sustained move to the upside would not only be dependent on the weakness of the Japanese Yen. A recovery in the strength of the Euro could provide the additional push, to drive the EURJPY higher.

ECB President Lagarde has continued to maintain her hawkish view by commenting that she intends to raise rates by 50bps at the next ECB meeting in March. Looking at the technical analysis, the EURJPY is likely to retrace briefly down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the resistance turned support level, before trading higher toward the key resistance at 145.60, formed by the previous swing high level. However, if the EURJPY trades significantly lower, past the previous swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, this breakout potential could be invalidated.

热门话题昨晚美国劳工部公布了美国本次的CPI数据，作为主导宏观经济的重要指标，这一数据会给市场带来哪些影响，又会有哪些投资机会？事件：昨晚美国通胀数据公布，总体通胀率继续按年下降， 1 月份从 12 月份的 6.5% 和 11 月份的7.1%降至 6.4% ；在四个主要分项中，核心服务价格仍是推动通胀的主要原因，贡献了4.19%；食品和核心商品进一步回落，分别贡献1.37和0.30%；能源小幅回升，贡献0.60%。总体通胀月度读数为 0.5%，高于 12 月的 0.1% 和11 月的 0.2%；消除波动的食品和能源成本的核心通胀率为5.6%，略高于经济学家预测的 5.5%，且仍远高于美联储2% 的年度通胀目标。对美联储货币政策的影响：在本次公布通胀数据之前，市场普遍预期6.2-6.3%，而数据公布之后，高于市场预期，通胀压力犹在，这也产生了一些对美联储此后利率政策轨迹的推导。整体来说，此前对于美联储货币政策乐观的情绪也产生了一些回落，未来几次会继续加息，降息时间也要推后。美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，将通胀率降低至美联储2%目标的过程可能需要相当长的时间。美股开盘转涨，市场仍在反应：开盘半小时集体转涨，纳指涨幅居前。开盘45分钟，纳斯达克100指数涨幅1%，成分股格芯涨7.7%领跑，其中CDNS涨6.8%， SNPS涨4.3%，英伟达涨4.1%，特斯拉涨4.0%。整日来看，美股周二涨跌不一，道指与标普指数收跌，纳指小幅上扬， 道指跌156.66点，跌幅为0.46%，报34089.27点；纳指涨68.36点，涨幅为0.57%，报11960.15点；标普500指数跌1.16点，跌幅为0.03%，报4136.13点。当前市场对通胀看法不一，市场也在持续反应本次的通胀数据， 整体来看，本次通胀数据的公布对美股还是利空的影响一直持续到下次通胀数据公布。下图为截至澳大利亚东部时间9：30am的欧美市场股市的走势，可以看到市场对本次通胀数据反应不一，涨跌互动。

（来源：Choice）黄金短期下行风险，中长线看好。我们可以看到，本次CPI数值虽然没有达到预期的那么低，但还是有所回落，这对黄金来说还是一个利好的信号。因为只要通胀处于下行的趋势，美联储政策轨迹就会跟随，停止加息只是时间问题。我们也可以看到黄金市场对最新通胀数据的初步反应出现了一些波动，当日上涨0.75%。然而，对比黄金此前的跌幅，本次的上涨幅度也仅仅可以算是震荡。我们也可以看到当前不断有美联储官员发表鹰派讲话，重申支持继续加息，这帮助美元反弹，令金价承压，因此短期内黄金仍然有下行的风险。

（来源：Tradingview）以上就是我对本次美国通胀数据的浅析，后续利率政策如何走，我们还需要持续跟踪。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yiduo Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) released the latest financial results for Q4 2022 on Wednesday. The Canadian mining company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for a second consecutive quarter. Barrick Gold reported revenue of $2.726 billion for the quarter vs. $2.674 billion expected.

EPS reported at $0.128 per share vs. $0.111 EPS estimate. The company also announced a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q4 2022. ''Our continued success in not only replenishing but also unlocking significant value in our asset base shows the unmatched potential of our organic growth pipeline,'' CEO of Barrick, Mark Bristow said in a press release. ''A stronger Q4 operational performance, notably from Cortez and Carlin in Nevada, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and Tongon in Côte d’Ivoire, contributed to annual gold production of more than 4.1 million ounces in a year impacted by infrastructural issues at Turquoise Ridge in Nevada and the replacement of the rock winder at Kibali in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper production from Lumwana in Zambia and Jabal Sayid in Saudi Arabia was well within guidance.'' The company also announced another share buyback program: ''Barrick returned a record $1.6 billion to shareholders in 2022 through dividends and share buybacks and has announced a further share buyback program of up to $1 billion for the next twelve months.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% at the open in the US at $17.22 as share.

Stock performance 1 month: -3.10% 3 months: +12.79% Year-to-date: +3.67% 1 year: -19.88% Barrick Gold stock price targets BNP Paribas: $19 Barclays: $26 RBC Capital: $20 Goldman Sachs: $18 BMO Capital: $28 Barrick Gold is the 572 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $31.38 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) announced Q4 2022 and 2022 full year financial results after the market close in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest travel company reported revenue of $1.902 billion (up by 24% year-over-year), beating analyst estimate of $1.861 billion. The revenue reported was the highest for a Q4 in Airbnb’s history.

Earnings per share also topped analyst estimate at $0.48 per share vs. $0.256 earnings per share expected. Revenue in 2022 reported at $8.4 billion, up by 40% vs. 2021. CEO commentary ''2022 was another incredible year for Airbnb.

We made almost 100 upgrades to our core service, saw record guest demand, and ended the year with our highest-ever number of active listings globally,'' co-founder and CEO, Brian Chesky said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares of Airbnb closed at $120.49 a share on Tuesday, up by 3.28%. The stock rose by around 9% in the after-hours as Q4 results came in above estimates.

Stock performance 1 month: +19.35% 3 months: +12.95% Year-to-date: +41.37% 1 year: -32.88% Airbnb stock price targets B of A Securities: $130 Barclays: $105 UBS: $114 Wells Fargo: $130 Goldman Sachs: $87 Mizuho: $110 Morgan Stanley: $80 Baird: $100 Airbnb is the 188 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $76.53 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题毫无疑问，在过去一周整个科技行业和金融行业里最火的话题，已经不再是特斯拉，也不是马斯克，而是一款叫做Chat GPT的软件。这个软件的全称是Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer，翻译成中文大概就是：生成型经过预先训练的变换模型式软件。虽然翻译非常拗口，但是基本上就是一款非常先进的聊天机器人。这个聊天机器人是由美国OPEN AI公司研制，微软集团主要投资的创新型软件。和之前绝大部分的传统聊天机器人所不同的是，这款软件并不是简单的通过搜索大量资料从而形成问题答案，它做的更多的是依靠无数逻辑中的某些逻辑，对自己搜索到的答案结果进行编排和校对，并且根据客户的情况给出针对性，并不一定客观正确，但是却又适合这个客户的回答。我来举一个非常能说明问题的案例：某美国英文用户问GPT软件: 你好，请问7+2等于几GPT说：按照数学逻辑来说是等于9.（这里软件还无法确认客户背景情况，因此按照标准化答案来回答）用户说：但是我太太说7+2 明明就等于8.（这里软件已经知道客户有家庭，并且在家庭中为丈夫角色）GPT回答：您的太太是对的，7+2就等于8.（GPT非常聪明的模拟了真实社会中有利于丈夫的答案）然后这个客户再次重启软件，转换语气问：请问8+1等于几GPT回答：按照数学逻辑等于9.用户回答：但是我丈夫说8+1等于10GPT这时回答：您的丈夫说错了，8+1就是等于9.（GPT根据提问者是妻子的角色而给出了完全不同的答案）在以上两个不同的场景中，GPT软件并不是简单的收集信息，给出答案，而是非常聪明的根据客户的提问，预判客户的背景和模拟真实环境，给出适合这个客户的回答。类似上述回答网上还有很多案例，这让我对研发团队无比佩服。想必一定是在涉及当初，加入了一条：如果丈夫和妻子发生矛盾时，一定是女人说的对。这样类似的逻辑。这其实就是真实模拟了人们在日常生活中的聊天场景，这也是GPT软件能在短时间内让无数人喜欢的原因，因为当你和它对话时，感觉它不是一个软件或机器，而是一个聪明而又高情商的人。虽然说还不能完全和人的回答类似，但是这一小步的变化，却是聊天软件发展的一大步。在短短3个月内囊获7亿注册用之后，Chat GPT软件的母公司Open AI的市值也直接逼近到了千亿美金级别。毕竟，在7亿用户的庞大基础内，即便只有10%的人最后成为了付费用户，也直接可以获得几十亿美元的收益。更别说未来的商业用途了。也正是因为这样，微软在被谷歌打压了十几年之后，这次终于研发出一款目前看来超越谷歌和其他竞争对手的产品了。并且微软也非常及时的发布了和Chat GPT绑定功能的浏览器和搜索引擎，以此进一步企图从谷歌手里抢回丢失的市场份额。从微软去年12月到现在的股价反弹我们不难看出，220到最高280，这30%的上涨，就是靠着CHAT GPT的热潮。

而其直接对手谷歌，则因为在公开展示的人工智能软件Bard所回答的答案出现了纰漏而使得股价出现了10%以上的大跌。

相比于前2年那些虚无缥缈的元宇宙和VR技术，这次Chat GPT所带来的在我看来却是实实在在可以落实在商业领域，是可以直接变现的技术。网上最近也纷纷出现各种博眼球的文章说什么未来将会有几百万人因为GPT软件的面世而失业等等。但是其实稍微有些真实工作经验的朋友们就应该知道。也许Chat GPT可以替代很多传统岗位例如在线客服，在线教育，或者网上银行等不用见面就可以搞定的业务。但是真正遇到需要人和人面对面来解决的问题，需要建立的关系来维护的商业往来这些领域，几乎任何的人工智能都很难替代人。也有很多朋友问我，这个Chat GPT对哪些公司或者行业板块有利呢？如果说最直接的受益者，那自然就是创立这款软件的母公司Open AI最大的投资人，微软集团了。但是虽然微软在科技和IT领域，但是并非意味着所有的科技公司都将会因此收益，谷歌股价的下跌就说明了一个例子。但是总体而言，微软的股价如果未来可以因为GPT一直上涨，那对于整个纳斯达克指数的帮助是巨大的，而如果未来微软可以和苹果手机绑定使用GPT功能，或者特斯拉的电动车界面使用GPT类似的功能和技术，在我看来，这就将会是美国科技企业的另一次大幅领先的时代开始。这款软件未来的商业用途非常广泛，从手机到汽车界面，从家庭智能系统到公司的在线客服，几乎只要有电脑的地方，就可以用得到这个软件。那问题来了，其他竞争者未来会不会超越GPT？如果明显超越，那市场中前三名的人工智能软件将会是谁？如果你也看好Chat GPT, 可以直接在GO Markets MT5平台交易微软的股票，或者，如果你觉得有其他科技公司的产品未来有潜力可以超越Chat GPT的，也可以通过我们的平台在线购买。在未来1-2周，我们会为发布更加详细的Chat GPT研究报告，供我们内部客户阅读。欢迎关注我们的公众号。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监