市场资讯及洞察

热门话题最近马斯克开始为3月1号即将公布的Master Plan3造势，令市场颇为关注，也足以令特斯拉极其本人保持热度不减，更是特斯拉股价的兴奋剂。那么什么是Master Plan呢？很多人对这个3.0版本的来袭没什么准备，今天就让我们来了解下马斯克为特斯拉打造的整个Master Plan。Master Plan概念的最早阶段也就是第一阶段是在2006年发布的，其内容包括：先制造一款产量少，价格高的电动车，将赚到的钱用于开发相对亲民的价格较低的电动车，这也是特斯拉先发展电动跑车Roadster而后逐步转往开发入门级电动车Model3的战略主线。第一阶段还涉及了想方设法利用可再生能源比如太阳能电力为电动车充电。

第一阶段花了十年时间真的基本布局完成，特斯拉也逐渐为大众所接受，于是马斯克在2016年公布了Master Plan的2.0版本，也就是计划的第二阶段，提出要创造高效且美观的太阳能板，扩大电动车产品线以满足细分市场需求，包括但不限于大型卡车，轻型卡车和公共运输系统，还强调了人工智能与自动驾驶的价值，并宣称在实现特斯拉全自动驾驶后达成Tesla Network。就当前的实际情况看，第二阶段已经略有雏形但并未完成，电动卡车还未量产，全自动驾驶正在路上，人工智能时不时火爆一下，但缺乏持续性。但不可否认的是，马斯克为特斯拉制定的Master Plan的第一部分和第二部分思路清晰，目标明确，过去近二十年特斯拉一直在为实现计划而努力，这也是是该公司的重要纲领战略，在许多方面为特斯拉的成功铺平了道路，也引领了整个产业的变革。那么对于其Master plan 的3.0版本 ，自然成为了全世界的焦点。其实在 2022 年 3 月，也就是Master plan 2 发布六年后，马斯克就在推特上宣布他正在制定特斯拉总体规划第 3 部分，如今一年过去，3月1号终于要到揭开其神秘面纱的时候了。今天我们就一起来预测下，Master Plan的第三阶段可能会包含哪些概念。根据马斯克去年的推文，他曾预告第三阶段将涉及扩大Tesla至巨大规模，带领人类走出化石能源，大力发展人工智能，计划会包含马斯克的另外两家公司，包括Space X和The Boring Company。

马斯克之前表示，在下一个十年也就是2030年左右，会建立12个年产量在150－200万台特斯拉的工厂，并表示年产2000万台电动车是可实现的。所以Master Plan 3肯定包含巨大规模化，例如如何规模化获取电池材料，按照一台车100Kwh的平均电池来算，特斯拉2000万台就是需要2Twh，这是一个天文数字，要知道中国电池生产霸主宁德时代2021年的电池年产量仅170.39Gwh，而整个中国的产量也只有219.7Gwh，2Twh这个量级的电池如何实现，让我们拭目以待。另外，马斯克在回答员工问题的全公司会议上提到过，为了转移地球的整个能源基础设施和交通基础设施，必须有一个非常高的电池规模，他必须要从大约 300Twh 的车辆和储能装机容量向后推算，那么如果从采矿供能的角度来看，又需要多少能量去开采矿？相关的矿股又能受到多久的暴涨周期？举个例子，最近马斯克和印度尼西亚眉来眼去，据说接近达成50亿美元的镍材料交易订单，当然这些消息在官方公布前都是不能作为参考的，仅仅是折射出了一个可能的信号。还有一点就是机器人领域，这其实在Master plan 2中已经触及了，Optimus机器人可以解决劳动力短缺问题，并大大降低成本，那么自然也能为特斯拉生产制造的规模化贡献力量。特斯拉计划让机器人随着时间的推移逐步改进，最终能够执行更广泛的任务，使其在商业和消费应用领域都有用武之地。因此机器人领域也很可能是马斯克会在Master Plan中涉及的话题。

第三个方面是人工智能。随着最近ChatGPT爆火，马斯克始终也处于AI风口中心，其脑机对接的理念在很早就已经提出，他本人也在采访中表达过亲测后的感受。因此Master Plan的第三阶段引入人工智能并不新奇，而这也是本文上面提及的机器人计划中可以提高效能的必要选项。结合人工智能的机器人，才是真正意义的机器人，而非单纯人为控制的劳动力。最后一个方面就是近期马斯克推特宣称的，Master Plan第三阶段将为地球发展完全可持续能源提供思路。这可是全人类的福音，因为任何文明的分级定义其实就是按照对能源的利用能力而划分的，当人类能够发展出完全可持续能源的技术时，人类文明或将上升到一个全新的高度。总的来说，马斯克的Master plan 是特斯拉汽车的专属战略，虽然他没有像其他传统主机厂一样喊新能源智能电动车战略，但仔细看他的计划有远景和目标，有节奏和策略，有时间和节点。远景目标可以归纳为：改变能源结构实现可持续的能源驱动，规模化把复杂的问题简单化，利用人工智能解决执行简单且重复的任务。例如太阳能产能，电池储能使用；一体冲压；人工智能驾驶标记简单重复场景进行执行应对。节奏和策略可以理解为：新技术导入期高价炫酷吸引高端价格不敏感客户，之后每一步都有符合节奏的创新保持品牌，接下来通过规模化做低价格实现价格壁垒，确保品牌优势。有时间和节点是最明显的，Master Plan可以清晰地看到马斯克每个阶段都有重心，环环相扣，在正确的时间打出正确的牌。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) announced Q4 2022 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US company posted better-than-expected results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Uber reported revenue of $8.607 billion (up by 47% year-over-year or 59% in constant currency) vs. $8.513 billion estimate.

EPS reported at $0.29 per share for the quarter. Analysts were expecting a loss per share of -$0.154. It’s the first time since Q4 2021 that the company has reported higher-than-expected EPS.

CEO and CFO commentary ''We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever, with robust demand and record margins,'' Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. ''Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum into 2023.'' "In 2022, we significantly exceeded our profitability outlook, with an incremental margin of 10%,'' Nelson Chai, CFO of the company added. ''Our outlook for a Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA step up in Q1 builds on that progress, and sets us up for yet another record year." Stock reaction Share price of Uber rose by around 2% on Wednesday and was trading at around $35.91 a share – the highest level since April 2022. Stock performance 1 month: +26.77% 3 months: +35.37% Year-to-date: +45.33% 1 year: -10.57% Uber stock price targets Wedbush: $38 Needham: $54 Wolfe Research: $42 Wells Fargo: $46 Piper Sandler: $33 Truist Securities: $60 Cowen & Co.: $70 Morgan Stanley: $54 Mizuho: $46 UBS: $36 Barclays: $54 Uber is the 204 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $71.61 billion. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

‘Trading the news’, is a phrase that is often said, but to new traders it can be a confusing statement without much context. What does it mean to trade the news? Is it simply trading a News Company, or is it trading based on a news report, this article will explain some of the intricacies of the famous strategy of ‘trading news’.

What is it? Trading the news is simply using an event, whether it be a global news event relating to a stock or sector news or an announcement from a company as a reason to enter a trade of a on a security or a derivative. A trader can only make money on a trade if the price of the chosen asset is moving.

If the price is stagnant then there is no use trying to trade it as there will be no money to be made. This is also known as volatility. In addition, traders and investors like to trade when there is a high level of liquidity as this allows for larger position sizes and easier movement in and out of a trade.

Why do some traders ‘trade the news’? There is multiple reason that trader will trade the new, but it is largely as news events act as catalyst for a shift in share price and increase in volatility. A general rule of the efficient market is that all information that is available is priced into the share price.

However, when news/announcements are first announced, the market must evaluate the worth of the news to the share price and this can happen quickly, or it can take a few days to assess. This is where money can be made when ‘trading the news’. Example In this example we have a company ABC.

ABC is a publicly listed company listed on the ASX and it share price is currently $1.00. with a market capitalisation of $1,000,000 ABC is company that creates and sells bicycles. Now imagine that this company signs a contract to sell 1000 bikes to Company DEF for $100,000 Immediately the news will be announced and the market including traders’ investors and others will have to assess how to value the contract. This will see a rush of volatility and buying/selling of the company’s shares.

Similarly, traders can trade the news relating Foreign exchange. Specifically, news from relating to the economy or an announcement from a countries Central Bank can provide a shift to the currency which triggers traders on corresponding currency pairs. In the example below, the Reserve Bank of Australia had just announced an increase in the interest rate for the cash rate largely in line with analyst expectation.

Some notable observation about the chart includes an initial influx of volume and increase in range for the candles relative to average levels. What is ‘Selling the news?’ It has been established that trading the news is when traders will try and use news catalysts as a signal for volatility when trading, however sometimes a seemingly good news event creates a sell off that can often lead to confusion on the part of the trader who taken a buy position. The reason for much of this selling goes back to the first question.

Why do traders trade the news? The market is trying to put a value on the announcement. Furthermore, this can be compounded by what are known as ‘trapped sellers.

The concept of trapped seller is that when a stock creates a gap above a previous closing price based and that gap is above previous long terms resistance zones, sellers who have been stuck in the stock long term will sell their holding at the first opportunity. This of course creates downward pressure on the price. The downward pressure incentivises short sellers and more selling occur thus causing a ‘sell the news’ type of event.

Take the following example of ASX listed company BUB. The news events were that the company had signed a contract to supply the USA with baby formular at a time when the country was dealing with a massive shortage of the formula. As we discussed above, in this chart we can see that as the market opened.

The price gapped form the previous close of $0.485 to $0.780 as the market opened. As the day wore on it became apparent that there was a great deal of long-term sellers who were using the opportunity to either take profits or cover to cover a loss. Subsequently the stock price kept falling for consecutive days as sellers continued to ‘sell the news’ Risks ‘Trading the news’ can be an inherently risky strategy, as an influx of volume comes into a stock the volatility often increases in volatility.

This means that the momentum of. If a trader is on the wrong side of the move it can be a dangerous as the price can move very quickly. Therefore, traders should be weary and have clear stops and exits points for when a trade goes the wrong way.

US indices were down today as Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates at a higher and faster rate than currently in place. US equities dropped after Powell’s speech. Ultimately the major indices ended relatively flat by the close of trading.

The Nasdaq closed down 0.40% after taking a breather from its recent buying momentum. The Dow Jones was dragged down by Boeing after a 737-plane crash in the mountainous Guangxi region in China. The Boeing share price saw a 5.74% drop on the opening before recovering a little to close the day down by 3.60%.

The S&P500 was also choppy as it reacted the Jerome Powell’s speech but finished flat. The FTSE 100 showed gains as an uplift in commodities supported the index with oil spiking. This provided strength for the UK’s biggest oil companies BP and Shell with both rising by 3%.

The FTSE ended the day up 0.51% whilst the DAX was down 0.60%. Commodities Brent Crude Oil made a powerful move overnight rising 7.91% to 116.33 USD. This came as European Union officials debated whether to place sanctions on Russia's lucrative energy sector to pressure the country over its invasion of Ukraine.

An embargo on Russian oil similar to what the USA and the UK have done may have drastic implications for the EU in which 40% of its gas is imported from Russia. Natural gas prices also continue to remain in the upper end of their recent price range. Gold remains near its recent support levels ending the day at 1929 USD per ounce.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as BTC/USD ended flat overall. Ethereum was the better performer closing the day with a 1.87% rise. The ETH/USD continues to hold just below the $3000 resistance level.

FOREX The EUR/USD continued to be rejected at the $1.08 level after the speech from the Federal Reserve spurred USD strength. The AUD/USD has not been able to break through its recent highs of $0.74 as it proved a flat day for the pair after the previous day’s strong moves. The USD has continued its strong move against the JPY as it climbed another 0.27%.

The JPY has continued to struggle against most other currencies. The GBP/JPY has closed in on its recent area of support 157.00-158.00 JPY as seen below as it looks to potentially break out.

热门话题在我们生活中，或者是很多影视作品中，都会看得到一句经典名言“看着我的眼睛说。”那么由此而来的就是，当人们在盯着眼睛交流的时候，从眼神中就可以看出这个人是否在说谎。而有这么一个人，用水汪汪的大眼睛盯着你，一步步的造就了近代最大的商业欺诈之一。她真挚的大眼睛骗过了自己的老师，同学，投资方，全世界，甚至，骗过了她自己本人。她就是伊丽莎白·霍姆斯(Elizabeth Holmes)。

霍姆斯 1984年出生于华盛顿特区，在得克萨斯州休斯敦长大。她是一个安静好学的孩子，对科学技术很着迷，很早就对医疗器械产生了兴趣。在某一天的参观中，发现了现阶段验血总是抽出一大管的血液，不仅仅是耗费大量的时间，对于病人来说也会造成很大的心理压力，于是在当时，年轻的霍姆斯就萌生出了改变这个世界的想法。于是在回到学校后她退出了同一领域的研究课程，从斯坦福大学化学工程学位肄业后，并于2003 年创立了Theranos，旨在开发一种比任何东西都更快、更便宜、更准确的血液检测技术，目标是为了改变目前的血检行业。

该公司的标志性产品是一种名为爱迪生的设备，据说只需一滴血就可以进行数百次血液测试，使用的专有技术比传统方法更快、更便宜、更准确。这项技术作为医疗保健行业的游戏规则改变者被推向市场，因为它可以进行更快、侵入性更小的测试，使患者更容易监测自己的健康状况并接受治疗。首先霍姆斯说服了斯坦福工程院院长钱宁罗宾逊，并使其加入了董事会。在一年内融资了超过600万美元。但是其中她想要说服一些医学界权威的人士却给她泼了冷水，这个想法在目前技术上，是无法实现的。然而这并没有阻挡霍姆斯的追梦之路。起码在当时是在追梦。在科技行业，从3DFX的年轻小伙子们开始，有一句著名名言“fake it until make it”。并做出了90年代闻名世界的“巫毒”Voodoo显卡。虽然后来因为战略管理等等倒闭了，但是这种精神，却流传了下来。于是在“原型机”的噱头，和改变世界梦想的驱使下。当时年仅19 岁的霍姆斯使得包括鲁伯特·默多克、贝琪·德维斯和沃尔顿家族在内的众多知名投资者向公司注资数百万美元，很快Theranos 的估值就超过了90亿美元。但是，现实的残酷让霍姆斯有些“措手不及”，首先就是技术上达不到，目前现有技术条件，无法让如此小的一个机器在一个恒定温度进行稳定运转。第二就是医疗方面巨大挑战，如此少量的血液根本无法提供完整的信息。2014 年，该公司与美国最大的连锁药店Walgreens 签署了合作伙伴关系，在其所在地提供血液检测，进一步提高了知名度和声誉。霍姆斯被誉为一位正在改变医疗保健的有远见的领导者，她甚至与史蒂夫乔布斯相提并论，后者同样以iPhone 颠覆了科技行业。

时间过去了许久，但是这个研究毫无进展。从这个时候起，各种方面的压力使得霍姆斯走上了造假之路。这个时候起，爱迪生验血机器开始上限，血量不够，就选择稀释，然后用西门子验血机进行检验。那不用说，准确度肯定差了十万八千米。因此，霍姆斯更是在自家员工身上严防死守，各种保密协议接踵而来。然而，尽管围绕着Theranos 的炒作和承诺，其技术的准确性和有效性仍存在严重问题。2015年，记者John Carreyrou 在《华尔街日报》上发表了一系列文章，对该公司的血液检测提出质疑，报道称Theranos 在绝大多数检测中使用的是传统血液检测设备，而非其专有设备，并且由于不准确，它已经作废了数以千计的测试结果。这些指控引发了美国证券交易委员会和司法部的刑事调查，并且很快发现Theranos 在其技术和能力方面误导了投资者、合作伙伴和公众。该公司被美国证券交易委员会指控“大规模欺诈”，名誉扫地。Theranos 和Elizabeth Holmes 的垮台是迅速而戏剧性的，自此成为无数书籍、文章和纪录片的主题。2018年，Holmes与 SEC 达成和解，她同意支付50 万美元的罚款，返还1890 万股股票，并交出对Theranos 的控制权。她还被禁止在10 年内担任上市公司的高级职员或董事。2022年11月裁定罪名成立，判刑11年零三个月。

也许在开始，霍姆斯真的想要改变这个世界，但是当技术，时间等等不站在她这一方面后，她没有选择承认失败，而是选择了欺骗。到最后，可能连她自己都骗过了自己。虽然Theranos 丑闻对伊丽莎白霍姆斯及其声誉产生了深远影响，但它也对创新和创业领域产生了更广泛的影响。围绕Theranos 的炒作是由一种重视颠覆而不是科学和证据的文化推动的，它可以作为一个警示故事，告诉人们当科技行业相信一位有魅力的领导者而不是科学方法时会发生什么。“信任”投资，再次推上风口浪尖。这起丑闻还引发了关于政府监管和监督在科技行业中的作用的重要问题，以及面对大胆的说法和炒作时是否需要怀疑和审查。它强调了医疗保健行业透明度和问责制的重要性，以及患者和消费者了解和了解她们用于管理健康的产品和服务的有效性和可靠性的必要性。Elizabeth Holmes 的故事证明了美国梦的诱惑力、颠覆性创新的吸引力以及创业精神的诱惑力。但这也提醒我们批判的重要性，信任投资也许并不一定可行，你的直觉可能会欺骗你。美丽的水汪汪的大眼睛也许能骗得你倾家荡产。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师

热门话题今年1月以来，比特币价格已经回升至2022年8月份以来的最高水平，上涨41%至23000美元左右。这是机构对加密货币投资卷土重来的迹象吗? 数据显示，1月份比特币的大部分涨幅可能来自机构买入。谁是加密货币反弹的幕后推手?从历史上看，“一月效应”是一种被广泛观察到的现象，即小盘股的表现往往优于大盘股。这通常归因于年终奖金的再投资和新年伊始的整体乐观情绪。不仅有“一月效应”，还有“头五天”规则。《股票交易员年鉴》(Stock Trader’s Almanac)自1950年以来一直在跟踪股市，发现1月份的前五天可以表明股市到年底是否会保持上涨。这个规则，可能也适合用来观察加密货币。

经过相关性分析，可以看出通常加密货币与股票市场存在强正相关关系，主要是因为机构投资者带来了更大的流动性。上图是比特币与纳指的走势图与相关性测试，较多时候相关系数超过0.8。

截至本周一，CoinShares的报告显示本年距今已经有达2.3亿美元的数字资产流入，特别是1月最后一周数据更是为自2022年7月(Terra (LUNA)崩盘两个月后)以来最大的数字资产流入，为1.16亿美元，其中90%的配置在比特币上。同样乐观的是，资产管理总规模(AuM)持续增加，目前较11月的低点增长了54%，达到302亿美元。

随着比特币成为一种决定性商品的可能性越来越大，而其他数字资产在未来可能被归类为证券，对比特币的投资关注也就不足为奇了。此外，平台Matrixport 1月27日的研究显示，大多数比特币的上涨都发生在美国的交易时段内。因为比特币可以全天候交易，但在美国交易时间内，其交易量占比特币交易总量的85%，这表明主要是美国的机构投资者参与。因此，自今年1月中旬开始他们的流动性注入将市场情绪从之前的恐惧推到了现值58的“贪婪”。

*加密货币恐惧贪婪指数最后，根据美银回购专家Cabana表示，自去年5月底量化紧缩启动至1月初，美联储的资产负债表缩减了4060亿美元，TGA减少了4220亿美元，缩表的效果被TGA泄洪对冲。TGA（treasury General Account）账户为美国财政部的主要支付账户。截止今年1月末，TGA账户中余额约5700亿美元，而预计至今年8月底，美联储缩表金额约在5000亿美元。TGA的现金似乎仍然足够冲抵美联储的缩表，可以理解为美国财政部将继续为市场注入流动性，是不是也是利多加密货币呢？技术分析：目前比特币价格为23325，似乎前期已经在15000左右位置完成筑底。虽然近期录得40%涨幅，但是整体仍处于25000-18400的盘整区间。区间上沿的25000左右也是年均线的压力位。弱势反弹抑或反转都将是一项长期工程，贵在高风险回报率，却无法避免低成功率规律。假如突破25000，上方阻力为33000左右。反之，下方支撑位在20400-20000区间以及18400附近。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jack Lin | GO Markets 新锐分析师