市场资讯及洞察

Markets are navigating a familiar mix of macro and event risk with China growth signals, US inflation updates, central-bank guidance and earnings that will help confirm whether the growth narrative is broadening or narrowing.
At a glance
- China: Q4 GDP + December activity + PBOC decision
- US: PCE inflation (date per current BEA schedule)
- Japan: BOJ decision (JPY/carry sensitivity)
- Earnings: tech, industrials, energy, materials in focus
- Gold: near record highs (yields/USD/geopolitics watch)
Geopolitics remain fluid. Any escalation could shift risk sentiment quickly and produce price action that diverges from current baselines.
China
- China Q4 GDP: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- Retail sales: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- PBOC policy decision: Monday, 19 January at 12.30 pm (AEDT)
China’s Q4 GDP and December activity data, together with the PBOC decision, will shape expectations for China's growth momentum and the durability of policy support.
Market impact
- Commodity-linked FX: AUD and NZD may react if growth expectations or the policy tone shifts.
- Equities: The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and ASX 200 could respond to any change in how investors view demand and stimulus traction.
- Commodities: Industrial metals and oil may move on any reassessment of China-linked demand.
US
- PCE Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- PSI: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- S&P Flash (PMI): Saturday, 24 January at 1:45 am (AEDT)
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and a key input for rate expectations and (by extension) Treasury yields, the USD, and growth stocks. Markets are likely to focus on whether the reading changes the inflation path that is currently priced, rather than simply matching consensus.
Market impact
- USD: May move if rate expectations shift, particularly against JPY and EUR.
- US equities: Growth and small caps, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, may be sensitive if the data or interpretation challenge the current rate outlook.
- Gold futures: May be influenced indirectly via moves in Treasury yields and the USD.
Japan
Key reports
- Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 10:30 am (AEDT)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Meeting: Friday, 23 January at ~2:00 pm (AEDT)
Markets will focus on what the BOJ signals about inflation, wages and the policy path. A shift in tone can move JPY quickly and flow through to broader risk via carry positioning.
Market impact:
- JPY/USD pairs and crosses: Pairs are sensitive to any guidance change and the USD/JPY has broken above 158, but the move could reverse if the BOJ strikes a more hawkish tone.
- Japan equities and global sentiment: Could react if the dynamics shift.
- Broader risk assets: May be influenced via moves in the USD and volatility conditions.
US earnings
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
- Johnson & Johnson: Wednesday, 21 January at 10:20 pm (AEDT)
- Intel Corporation: Thursday, 22 January at 8:00 am (AEDT)
A busy week of US earnings is expected with large-cap names across multiple sectors reporting. Early results and, importantly, forward guidance may help clarify whether growth is broadening or becoming more selective.
With the S&P 500 close to the psychological 7,000 level, earnings could be a catalyst for a fresh test of highs or a pullback if guidance disappoints.
Market impact
- Upside scenario: Results that exceed expectations and are supported by steady guidance could support sector and broader market sentiment.
- Downside scenario: Cautious guidance, particularly on margins and capex, could weigh on individual names and spill into broader indices if it becomes a repeated message.
- Read-through: Early reporters in each sector may influence expectations for related stocks, especially where peers have not yet provided updated guidance.
- Bottom line: This is a week where the market may trade the forward picture more than the rear-view numbers. The key is whether guidance supports the idea of broad, durable growth, or whether it points to a more selective backdrop as 2026 unfolds.
Gold
Continued strength in gold may support gold equities and gold-linked ETFs relative to the broader market but geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty may influence demand for defensive assets.
A sustained reversal in gold could be interpreted by some market participants as a sign of improved risk confidence. The driver set matters, especially whether the move is led by yields, USD strength, or a fade in event risk.


Few traders would suggest that effective risk management is highly critical to ongoing trading success. But there remains an ongoing debate about the optimal risk management method to use, and whether a system stop loss is something that is needed at all. There are a lot of traders who remain unconfident about what is best for their individual trading style. If you get it wrong, the likely scenarios are either you are stopped out too early by market noise only to see price subsequently move in your desired direction, or that placement means that you take a larger loss than planned. This is especially true in leveraged trading, where even small moves can have a significant impact. The potential for a catastrophic candle subsequent to a black swan event or even a sudden unplanned news item coming across the wires can do major damage to your account balance if you are not effectively protected.
Do You Need a Stop at All?
There are traders who argue against hard stops, preferring mental stops or flexible exits based on evolving price action. On the surface, this can sound appealing as it is price action that invariably dictates entry, so using the same logic for exit appears to be congruent.
What does this mean in reality?
The emotional pressure of not having a safety net can be significant and may shift during the life of a trade, particularly when a trade is not moving in your desired direction. The challenge of discipline in execution is difficult enough when a trade has moved into profit, but if you are in a losing position, this is amplifiedA catastrophic candle can occur at any time. Even if many events are predictable, some are not. A terrorist attack, a major environmental event, or a change in government policy can send prices spiralling in a heartbeat. Unless you are prepared to take on this risk, you need to be in front of a computer screen at all times. Even then, price movement may be exceedingly quick, causing major losses before you have a chance to take action.
Why Standard Stop Methods Often Fall Short
Fixed Pip or Percentage Stops
The idea of a fixed-size stop, whether it’s 50 pips or a 1% move from entry, appeals because it’s simple and clear-cut.However, markets don’t move in uniform increments. A 20-pip move on EURUSD might be normal activity in Asia on an hourly chart, but can be significantly different at the start of the European session.On the AUDNZD, a 1% move in price could take several hours to happen, but on a gold trade, it could happen in minutes.These stops lack sensitivity to volatility, timeframe, and market context. They may work on a single instrument in a single timeframe, but are likely not transferable to any other context.
The Problem with Round Numbers
The human mind is automatically drawn to round numbers.Traders often cluster buy and sell pending orders and stop orders around these levels, creating self-fulfilling reaction points for the market.If you have identified that your desired stop is near a round number, consider the “spacing” option, perhaps a buffer of 10-20$ ATR to take it away from the wicks we often see around these levels as stops are taken out. For example, if ATR is 30 pips and price is at a round number, consider setting your stop to 3-6 pips beyond the round number, giving your trade a fighting chance to survive the typical round number fake-out.
Key Level Stops
Similar to round numbers, key levels based on previous price action are logical places for prices to test and bounce, and trigger your stop.The same buffer principle described above could also be applied in this scenario. Looking at what a typical test and failure of levels in price distance on specific instruments may have some value, but this is the next level after a system is already in place, and does not account for volatility changes during a day.
The Case for the ATR Multiple Stop
The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging recent price ranges.When you multiply ATR by a specific factor, you create a volatility-adjusted stop that scales with the current instrument and timeframe you are trading.There are three main reasons that a multiple of ATR-based stops may overcome some of the challenges outlined earlier:
- They are flexible with and responsive to the underlying instrument character
- They provide consistency and the required automatic adjustment across instruments and on different timeframes
- They go some way to help avoid stops that are too tight in volatile markets or too loose in quiet ones
For example, on your chosen instrument, the ATR on a 15-minute chart may be 12 pips. If you were to have in your plan that stops will be placed 1.5x ATR away from the signal for entry, then you would place the stop 18 pips away.However, if you were trading a longer timeframe where the expectation is a great movement per candle, the ATR may be 20 pips; hence, your stop would be placed 30 pips away. You can then calculate the position size based on the difference between entry and stop compared with your risk tolerance. This is important not to miss; the key here is to keep risk within a tolerable limit while also making sure you are giving your trade a chance to breathe.
The ATR challenges
Let’s say that you have made the decision to explore an ATR stop further; there are additional decisions to make as to how you use this in your trading.
Challenge #1 - How Big Should Your ATR Multiple Be?
The “right” multiple depends on:
- Your trading style
- The market you trade
- Your timeframe
Here is a practical approach to get you started.
- Review your last 20 trades
- Check where your “undesirable” stops were hit. Record whether they were inside your chosen ATR multiple times. (Remember you are looking for probabilities here, not an “every time” solution.)
- Adjust and test until you find a range that minimises premature stop-outs without giving away too much profit potential.
1.5 ATR may be a good starting point to try, as this is a commonly used level by some traders.
Challenge #2 - Static ATR vs. Dynamic ATR Stops
Static ATR Stops are calculated at entry and remain fixed throughout the life of the trade, are simple, and require no adjustment.Dynamic ATR Stops are adjusted with changing volatility, which may be most relevant for trades held over multiple sessions, but does require regular monitoring.Ultimately, you need to make a choice that is right for you, and this may be a hybrid approach where there are defined times to adjust. Of course, this may be negated to a large degree, dependent on what point your initial stop begins to trail with the direction of the trade.
Challenge #3 Entry Signal Level vs. Entry Price — Where Should You Anchor Your Stop?
This is a nuance many may overlook. You need to plant your flag on how you are going to calculate your ATR-based stop. From your actual entry price, or from the signal level?Logically, the trade idea is proven to have moved against you when the reason for entry is no longer valid. However, there may be some price distance between these two levels, so one approach I have seen used is if the entry candle is more than X ATR above the signal line, then use this as your point.Again, if you need to find out what is right for you and your trading style, start with the simple first and then add the variation to see if there is a difference in outcomes.
This is Only Step One
Placing your stop is only the beginning of trade management. The next phase is knowing how and when to trail your stop so you can lock in profit as a trade moves in your direction.This is a story for another day, but worth mentioning as part of your “grand exit plan”. We have done both videos and articles on this, so it would be worth it once you have mastered this element to move on to the next.
Summary
The ATR multiple stop is one of the most adaptable and logical ways to set your initial risk level.It offers a structured way to try and avoid some of the classic stop placement pitfalls by accommodating market conditions, instrument volatility, and adaptability to the timeframe.But like any method, it has challenges that you need to be aware of in your decision-making:
- Choosing the right ATR multiple
- Deciding between static and dynamic approaches
- Aligning your stop with your entry price
All require planning, testing, and execution discipline. Your starting point is to test this out, ideally on trades you have taken previously, and incrementally build on a relatively simple approach.


本周伊始,美股三大指数表现趋于疲弱,尽管整体尚未出现显著回调,但技术面已显现压力迹象。纳斯达克和标普500昨晚冲高后回落,连续两日收盘形成“倒T”形态,显示短线上涨动能趋弱。包括AI、稳定币、核电等前期热门板块纷纷高位震荡,盘中交易量显著放大,资金获利了结迹象明显。随着七月进入下旬,叠加关税政策观察期临近、三季度季节性弱势特征,市场避险情绪升温。近期启动的美股财报季表现平淡,未能带动市场情绪。本周谷歌和特斯拉财报将登场,市场预期较为保守。短线操作上建议适当收缩仓位,锁定收益,静待八月初更多政策与基本面信号。对于中长线持仓,仍可重点关注具备稳定现金流的价值型个股。消息面上,白宫方面释放稳定信号,表示不会更换美联储主席;欧美之间讨论进一步对俄经济措施,但贸易政策方面暂无突破。地缘紧张背景下,黄金价格大幅拉升,一度突破3400美元,相关金矿股集体走强。与此同时,AI板块仍具波段机会,英伟达、PLTR走势稳定,而CRCL和部分AI医疗个股动能不足。

币圈方面,前期大涨的稳定币概念明显出现获利回吐,Circle走势疲弱,市场对其后续估值预期下调。部分小盘币种波动剧烈,短线风险升高。值得留意的是,特朗普预计于本月23日公布其AI发展政策,相关基础技术与应用型公司或再迎一波关注。外汇方面,美元指数受压调整,澳元兑美元站稳0.65,美日跌破148大关,美元兑人民币稳定于7.17附近,澳元兑人民币回升至4.68。原油价格维持区间震荡,美油主力合约围绕66美元运行,整体波动较温和,市场正在寻找新的推动方向。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师


今日澳洲股市整体走弱,ASX 200指数下跌1.02%,11大板块悉数下挫,其中金融板块跌幅最大,成为市场主要拖累。由于澳洲央行迟迟未释放降息信号,叠加银行类股前期涨幅较大,回调压力逐步释放,市场情绪趋于谨慎。在普遍下行的环境中,能源与原材料板块逆势上涨成为亮点。核电主题继续受到关注,澳洲铀矿相关个股集体回暖,即便在国际铀价横盘的背景下依旧稳中有升;锂电池制造商NVX受益于美国对华石墨限制,今日上涨超10%。大型矿商方面走势稳健,FMG上涨逾1%,BHP小幅收红,MIN上涨超3%。相对地,金融与地产股承压,CBA下跌超过2.5%,GMG下跌近1%。隔夜美股走势依旧强势,主要股指期货小幅上扬。近期表现抢眼的AI、稳定币及核电等题材仍有资金持续流入。美元指数继续回调,日内跌近98关口,推动金价一度上涨至每盎司3370美元附近,涨幅近0.6%。地缘因素方面,以色列周末空袭叙利亚令中东局势再度升温,避险情绪有所升温。恐慌指数小幅下行,油价震荡不大,美油期货围绕66美元运行。外汇方面,美元整体承压带动非美货币短线反弹,美元兑日元跌破148关口,澳元兑美元上涨0.2%,重新站上0.65,美元兑人民币被压制在7.18之下,澳元兑人民币也进一步回升至4.68附近。免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。 联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师


Most traders follow a familiar routine when planning trades:They scan for a setup — a candlestick pattern, a moving average crossover, or a favourite indicator alignment. When they find one, they take the trade, set a stop somewhere "logical," and target a multiple of their risk.And, there is nothing wrong with this! It is systematic and structured, and if it is based on a specific set of unambiguous criteria within your trading plan, it can work to your advantage. But, perhaps there is another way to achieve improved trading outcomes?The potential flaw in the “every trader does it” approach is subtle but can be critical. It assumes that the setup itself automatically means the market will move as far as you expect, and be clean enough for the trade not to be impacted by market noise.However, without a logical, higher probability exit point, your supposed great entry could quickly turn into the wrong trade.This is where reverse engineering your trade (starting with the exit) comes in.
What Is Reverse Engineering in Trading?
Instead of beginning with the entry, you start with a different question: "Where is price most likely to go — and is there a logical reason for it to get there?"You look for the destination or a ‘zone’ where the price has a high probability of pausing or even reversing. Current price action is often dictated by previous price action to some degree. This could be a support or resistance area, a previous swing high or low, or a volatility cluster that you may expect the market to seek out and price to hit.Once you have identified this likely exit point, you work backwards:
- Is there enough space between the current price and this target for the trade to offer a meaningful reward compared to the risk you are taking?
- Where would a logical stop be to make this trade viable from the perspective of my own risk/reward profile?
- Do current conditions make this trade worth entering now, or would it be prudent to wait?
Instead of forcing entries every time a setup appears, you filter opportunities through a forward-looking lens of probability based on what could happen based on price action.
Why the Exit-First Approach May Give You an Edge
When your focus is primarily on entry patterns, your risk-reward may suffer without you realising it. You may end up chasing trades where price has little room to move, ignoring close potential pause points in order to justify the trade, so squeezing risk-to-reward into the desire to simply get in, or worse, jumping in right before price reverses on you.The exit-first mindset, although perhaps seeming a little pedantic, may encourage you to engage more frequently in trades where:
- The market context supports a move in your favour.
- The price destination, and so reward, offers both logical and likely potential.
- The risk-to-reward is completely justified, without letting some of the “force a trade” demons take hold, resulting in you pressing the entry button without checking this.
This alternative approach in how you view trade decisions does not mitigate the necessity to place meaningful stops or trail positions, but it could have the ability to force you to trade with the bigger picture in mind, not just the immediate momentary signal.
How to Reverse Engineer a Trade
Step 1 — Define a High-Probability Exit Zone
Study the chart and identify where and why the market has a reason to go to a particular price point.This is not about predicting the future per se, but about recognising where price may be naturally drawn based on observable market structure and previous price behaviour.These zones often include areas like:
- A price level that has respected a support or resistance level on multiple occasions.
- A prior (and usually relatively recent) swing high or low that acted as a turning point.
- Major round numbers that commonly attract stop positioning.
These zones often act like magnets; they can be points where market participants have historically placed orders (and may have more pending orders) or reacted strongly in the past.With the focus on these likely destinations first, you force yourself to consider the broader market context before setups. Even if we like to think we will take this into account in any entry decision, to make it your thinking start point, rather than the excitement of a new set-up, is a logical way to keep those emotions channelled correctly.
Step 2 — Assess the Trade Space Between Price and Target
With your potential price destination mapped out with clear reasoning, the next step is to examine the space between the current price and your identified target zone.Make the decision as to whether the market offers a meaningful opportunity, or if it is already too late to enter to justify the risk.This is where you assess your reward potential relative to your probable stop-loss size.For example, if the price is only a few pips or points away from your exit target, it may not be worth entering, even if the setup appears to meet your planned entry criteria. Conversely, if price is a defined distance away from your end point, with enough space to move and few hurdles to negotiate (e.g., previous pause points), that could be the opportunity you are looking for.
Step 3 — Identify a Low-Risk Entry Within That Trade Space
Now you look for your familiar entry triggers — within a clearly defined context where you already know:
- The price you are targeting.
- How much room price could move before it hits your identified zone
- Where a stop could be placed logically whilst still retaining a desirable risk/reward ratio.
You may choose to wait for a pullback to a previous key level and confirmation of a bounce, evidence of increasing momentum, or look for confirmation of a continued directional move in price action patterns.So, you are entering with a plan built around where price is going and not just reacting to where price may be right now.Once you have practiced this a few times, this is an approach you can pre-plan, perhaps even prior to market open. Identifying your top 3 could provide clear guidance for the session ahead.
What This Approach Changes About Your Trading Psychology
Trading with the end in mind can help shift your focus from one of reacting to one of improved planning. The aim is to more naturally:
- Take fewer, higher-quality trades.
- Avoiding emotional decisions based on the ‘heat-of-the-moment’ setups and considering context more fully
- Managing your trades with more clarity as you understand the complete structure you are trading
Summary
We are not suggesting for one moment that you should abandon what you are doing now, particularly if it is yielding great results. This is an alternative that may be worth adding to your trading toolbox to potentially harness the power of trading with the end in mind. Reverse engineering your trades is a different way of looking at things, and probably a very new way of thinking about the market that differs from what is traditionally taught.It will by default force you to look at and respect structure, context, and reward potential before you ever consider pulling the trigger.By starting with the exit in mind, you naturally filter out lower-quality trades, focus on logical market movement, and step away from the emotional pull of “setup chasing.”It is also worth re-emphasising that there is no difference in the need for a carefully crafted and tested trading plan between this and any other strategy.


美国稀土板块近期迎来了 显著上涨周期 ——尤其是MP Materials因两大重磅合作推动下股价暴涨,同时USA Rare Earth作为受益者也跟随大幅上扬。稀土龙头抬起,引领行业爆发7月16日美国国防部斥资4–6亿美元入股MP Materials,持股超15%,并签署长期高价采购协议,正式将其定位为战略级资源企业;与此同时,苹果也于同日宣布追加5亿美元投资,用于稀土磁体生产与回收设施建设,推动稀土进入高科技核心供应链、加速去中国化。受此双重利好推动,MP股价两日内(7月15–16日)暴涨超80%,市值从50亿美元跃升至近130亿美元,投行上调目标价至60~64美元以上。强势龙头效应引爆整个稀土概念板块,市场资金集中涌入,稀土成为当前热点投资主线。为何美国突然重视稀土?在化学元素的江湖里,有一群被叫做“稀土”的家伙,总共17位,包括镧、铈、钕、镨、钐、铕、钆……名字听着冷门,但个个身怀绝技,是现代科技的“幕后英雄”。虽然叫“稀土”,其实它们并不稀少,只是提取困难、分离复杂,就像从一大碗沙子里精准抓出17种颜色的米粒。稀土就像现代科技的“调味料”和“维生素”,少量但关键——没有它,飞机飞不了,手机亮不了,新能源车跑不了,导弹也瞄不准。目前,中国掌握了全球约60%-70%的稀土生产与提炼能力,就像“炼丹炉”级别的顶级厨师,全世界的高科技公司都在排队订货。4月4日,中国商务部将七类中重稀土元素及稀土磁体纳入出口许可管理,限制对美出口,以回应美方关税,5月日内瓦谈判后,中美达成初步谅解,中国承诺缓解对稀土出口的非关税限制,稀土可以说就是中国贸易谈判的王牌,不管美国出什么招,中国只要亮出稀土,美方就要谨慎考虑。中国以“示牌不出牌”的方式,让稀土成为博弈中的象征武器;而美国则以国家安全为由,加速构建非中国稀土产业链,所以才有前面对美国本地稀土的一系列利好政策。稀土板块的暴涨能否持续?政策上是绝对的利好,美国要摆脱中国稀土卡脖子,大力发展自己的稀土产业。需求方面,清洁能源与高科技产业对稀土的需求持续增长。但替代技术和循环利用可能在中长期减缓稀土需求增速。特斯拉宣布下一代电机将不使用稀土永磁体,苹果公司则计划2025年实现其产品中磁体100%使用回收稀土。新材料、提炼技术和稀土回收的发展未来或降低对原生稀土的依赖。我们对此进行一个小总结:短期来看,在政策扶持、供应安全考量及需求增长的推动下,美国稀土板块的涨势短期内具有一定可持续性。中期来看,随着本土产能逐步释放、技术替代开始涌现,稀土板块涨势可能趋于放缓。但考虑到稀土在新能源和国防领域的战略地位,中期仍将获得一定支撑。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部


Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) on July 14, rising to $122k for the first time in its history. On this same day in 2010, a single Bitcoin was worth… $0.07.This incredible rise from a near-worthless digital experiment to a $2.5 trillion asset class begs the question: What is it exactly that makes Bitcoin so valuable?[caption id="attachment_712157" align="alignnone" width="1835"]

Bitcoin price 2012-2022[/caption]
What Gives Any Currency Its Value?
Since the dawn of organized trade, humans have searched for what economists call "sound money" — a currency that facilitates transactions while still maintaining value over time.

After centuries of trial and error, gold eventually emerged as the universally accepted currency. Its scarcity, durability, and divisibility made it great for storing and transferring value. But physical gold wasn’t able to satisfy all the traits of sound money — it was heavy, difficult to transport, and vulnerable to theft during long-distance trade.To address these limitations, a new solution was found — countries began issuing paper currency guaranteed by the government, backed by gold reserves.This paper currency is (more or less) the currency we know today. And for the past few hundred years, it was the currency that satisfied the most requirements for sound money.However, as we entered the digital age, the idea that a “digital currency” could be created to satisfy all sound money criteria began to gain traction.This is where Bitcoin comes in.
The Bitcoin Breakthrough
Multiple attempts to create a digital version of sound money were made throughout the 1990s and 2000s. But they all ran into the same problem: double spending.The inherent issue with anything digital is that it can be easily copied. There needed to be a way to prevent people from simply copying a digital currency file and “double-spending” it in multiple places.This created a situation where the last two traits of sound money — Censorship Resistance and Counterfeit Resistance — could not be satisfied simultaneously.To satisfy Counterfeit Resistance, double spending had to be prevented. To prevent double spending, a central authority was needed to verify transactions, which opened up the currency to censorship.It wasn’t until 2008, when a paper named “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System“ was innocuously sent to a cryptography mailing list, that a solution was discovered.Instead of relying on a central authority, Bitcoin proposed a distributed network where every participant keeps a copy of every transaction that has ever occurred.This shared ledger (now better known as “the blockchain”) is maintained by a network of thousands of computers (nodes) around the world. When someone wants to send Bitcoin, they need to broadcast their transaction to the network. The computers then work together to verify that the sender actually owns the Bitcoin and hasn't already spent it elsewhere.If everyone has a complete record of all transactions, double spending becomes impossible. You can't spend the same Bitcoin twice because the entire network can see your complete transaction history.This breakthrough meant, for the first time, a form of currency existed that could (theoretically) satisfy all the traits of sound money.

However, the fact that Bitcoin satisfies these traits does not automatically make it valuable.Bitcoin’s “sound money” breakthrough was just a novelty; it still needs practicality with a clear fundamental value add to justify having any worth.
What Gives Bitcoin Its Fundamental Value?
It created a new technology. The blockchain solution was far more reaching than just preventing double-spending. Blockchain introduced a way to create permanent, tamper-proof records without requiring a central authority to maintain them.This unlocked possibilities across virtually every industry. Everything that previously required a trusted middleman to verify, record, or enforce agreements could now be rebuilt on this trustless infrastructure.It has absolute scarcity. Bitcoin's supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins, written into its code and enforced by the network. This creates predictable, verifiable scarcity. Unlike gold, where new deposits can be discovered, Bitcoin's scarcity is mathematically guaranteed.It is censorship-resistant. Bitcoin transactions cannot be blocked, reversed, or frozen by governments or financial institutions. This makes it valuable for those living in countries where traditional money systems might be unreliable or compromised.It is globally accessible. Anyone with internet access can send or receive Bitcoin anywhere in the world, 24/7. This makes it particularly valuable in regions with limited banking infrastructure or restrictive governments.Bitcoin is decentralized and secure. Because the Bitcoin network operates through thousands of nodes worldwide, it means no single entity can control, manipulate, or shut down the network.It is transparent and auditable. Every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on its public ledger that anyone can verify. This ledger has been running with 100% uptime for over 12 years, with its only two minor downtime events occurring early in its formative years.

How Much of Bitcoin’s Value is Speculative?
So, Bitcoin has a good fundamental value proposition, but does it justify its nearly $2.5 trillion market valuation?The short answer is no. Just like gold, if you valued it only on its practical usability, its market cap would be significantly lower.Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron all have a far superior tech stack, yet Bitcoin has a valuation over five times these assets combined.

However, like gold, if you start to derive Bitcoin's value from beyond its core functionality, its huge market cap begins to make more sense.Bitcoin has achieved institutional adoption well beyond any of its counterparts. Major corporations, hedge funds, and even nation-states have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The most notable of which is MicroStrategy, with current holdings of 597,325 BTC.US Spot Bitcoin ETFs went live in January 2024, the first-ever crypto spot ETF in the US. They have seen over USD$50 billion in combined inflows since launch and generated the biggest first-year inflows on record (beating out Gold ETFs' long-standing record).And Donald Trump has signed an executive order to create a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — turning Bitcoin into a national stockpile asset alongside Gold and Oil to help prop up the US Dollar.More nuanced value can also be derived from things like Bitcoin’s 15-yeartrack record of resilience, its community network effects, and the anonymity of its creator — Satoshi Nakamoto.[caption id="attachment_712156" align="alignnone" width="968"]

Sculpture of Satoshi in Switzerland that vanishes from certain angles[/caption]All these factors, combined with its fundamentals, make a strong case for a high Bitcoin valuation. Whether that valuation is as enormous as $2.5 trillion is up for debate. Still, we can be confident that Bitcoin is not a purely speculative asset, like many critics have touted in the past.
Summary
Bitcoin has legitimate technical and economic properties that create genuine value. It is the first form of truly sound money, and it has introduced fundamental innovation that is revolutionary in many ways.However, like many new technologies, the market is still feeling out what it's actually worth. The $2.5 trillion valuation could be justified, or it could be a bubble, or both at different times.What is clear is that Bitcoin isn't going away. Whether it becomes a major part of the global financial system or remains a niche asset, it has established itself as a permanent fixture in financial markets that can't be ignored.Start trading Bitcoin and 38 other Cryptocurrency CFDs on GO Markets today.