市场资讯及洞察

What is going on with Tesla’s share price? Tesla is now one of the world’s most recognisable brands and companies. A leader in technology and pioneer of the electric vehicle space.

The company has become a beacon of hope for the charge against climate change and move towards a more a carbon friendly future. At the centre of the company is its CEO, South African born billionaire, and visionary Elon Musk. Musk, who famously took over Twitter last year and has a list of other ventures including SpaceX, the Boring project and Starlink is a polarising figure with his controversial tweet comments and stances.

This at times has hurt Tesla’s share price and reputation. However, he has been bold and aggressive in his plans and hopes for Tesla. However, the company’s share price has taken a massive hit in the prior 18 month after peaking at $414.

The price has now fallen back to $117 and is down 71.5% from those highs. The reason for the drop is due to various reason, Musk’s own hubris, a tough environment for growth company’s and missed deadlines. However, is the current state a once in a lifetime opportunity to enter a generational company at a heavy discount or a sign of big change in fortunes for the company.

The numbers The company’s share price has been dropping rapidly as production has slowed worries over the company’s ability to keep up with demand or worse the slowing of demand has spooked the market to the ability for the company to continue to grow. Furthermore, concern has developed over whether its first mover advantage is starting to fall away. Other car manufacturers are beginning to develop and get to market their own electric vehicles threatening Tesla’s market share.

In saying this, Tesla still managed to sell 1.3 million vehicles last year short of the Musk’s 50% growth target. The company also manufactured 1.37 million cars for the 2022 calendar year. The company also increased its revenue to 74.836 billion dollars from 53.823 billion for the prior financial year.

Tesla also has a notoriously high Price/Earnings ratio even when compared to most other car manufacturers. Top car manufacturers such as Toyota, Volkswagen and Ford have much more modest PE ratios then Tesla has. Therefore, it is possible that the market is just valuing the company alongside the industry standard.

In addition, the company still has a market capitalisation of almost double that of Toyota and significantly higher than other manufacturers. Company PE Ratio BMW 3.11 Volkswagen 4.14 Toyota 9.19 Ford 5.70 Tesla 31.3 Price Action analysis The price chart for Tesla is not particularly encouraging. The price is at levels not seen in more than 2 and a half years.

The price is currently at $120 USD and has not yet made a bottom. In fact, the price has fallen below its 200-week moving average a bearish sign. It is resting on a support region at 110-120 dollars and if it fails its next support is at $65.

The volume of selling has been quite aggressive. At this stage until, there is some sort of support or buying volume it remains a more favorable short then long. However, if the price can find support at $110 it may bounce and begin a reversal.

Ultimately, Tesla remains an intriguing opportunity for traders and investors. With high volatility and a high growth runway, Tesla may provide a rare opportunity for a long time.

The Aussie dollar has been on a tear in recent weeks as a weaker USD and thoughts of a pivot in US interest rate hikes has seen the Aussie bounce from its lows near $0.62. The Australian dollar and economy have benefited from the improved strength in commodity prices such as Gold and Iron ore which are important players in Australia’s economy. In addition, a potential reopening of China and improved economic prospects for the country means that it may be protected in the case of a global recession.

The long-term price action of the AUSUSD is that of a ranging pattern. Since 2015 there has been no consistent trend. The price dropped to near $0.60 during the initial stages of Covid 19 and in October last year.

The price has now recovered almost 12% from this October bottom and has shown a strong rejection of the $0.62 zone. The strength of the support can be seen by the weekly buying candle. This is almost identical to the pattern that occurred when the price bounced in 2020 categorised by a long green body and short wick.

In 2020, the price then rose to $0.79. This is a reasonable longer-term target especially if the USD continues to weaken. The one concern is the resistance level at $0.70.

This level is middle of the range of the pair’s price and could act as a difficult area to profit on the price action. Therefore, it would be best to wait for a confirmation candle either short or long before entering into a position. On the daily time frame, the price has just risen above the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average has begun to trend back upward and potentially cross back above the longer time moving average.

This may provide a buy signal if it occurs. The RSI is also consolidating and if it breaks out of its wedge, it may provide an indication of a further move to the upside. With so much more data to come still relating to inflation data and broader economic data, there may still be some volatility in the direction of the AUDUSD.

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美联储2023年整体目标以控制通涨为主，待通涨回落到2%才可能考虑降息等货币宽松政策。这是鲍威尔发言中透露给市场的一个明确信号。那么事实真的会和鲍威尔说的一致吗?我们需要分析的点有很多。

首先我们需要回顾一下鲍威尔为首的美联储过去几年传递给市场的信号，真的都兑现了吗?之前也分析过，每年杰克逊霍尔年会中鲍威尔的前瞻性发言都随着时间的推进被证实为预判错误，妥妥的反向指标。从预判美国需要超低利率刺激经济，到预判美国通涨非常合理，到2022年最近一次极力推进货币紧缩政策挽救失控的通涨，每一次都是比市场慢了不止一拍，也没见追责的和道歉的。目前消息面已经开始担忧过度紧缩对实体经济造成的长时间深远危害，这一点在上周的会议纪要中也被提及，连“鹰王”布拉德都改口唱“鸽”。因此从近些年劣迹斑斑的美联储言论历史来看，鲍威尔的话可信度是需要打折扣的，因为每次发言中他都会加上政策实施的条件，那就是以市场数据为重要参考，说白了就是没有一个确定的预案。

那么市场数据主要有哪些呢？众所周知的就有美联储看重的PPI和核心PPI，上周刚刚公布的非农就业数据，本周要公布的CPI以及核心CPI，以及我们之前提到的PCE，失业率等等。这里需要解答一个周五刚刚发生的非农数据问题，本次非农预测20万，前值26.3万，公布数值22.3万，失业率3.5%低于前值和预期的3.7%，常规思路就是非农好于预期，失业率降低，利空股市，那么为何周五美股全面上扬呢？从市场走势以及各方分析师解读的理由，主要有以下一些原因。非农数据预期值摆的太低以至于好于预期似乎是机构提前布的局，而22.3万刷新了2020年8月以来的最差值，显然该数据是不支持美联储大规模货币紧缩的，因此反而利多了股市。另外一个失业率比预期多下降了0.2%也不足以利空股市是因为美国的失业率现阶段一直在3.5%至3.7%震荡，并没有超出市场接受区间，对股市的影响也可以忽略。还有，工资增长意外放缓也是导致股市利多的重要原因。

有了以上的了解，加上目前美联储官员表态后拼凑出的信息，美联储大概率会在2023年初加紧提升至利率上限，然后保持高利率等待通涨回落到目标区间。但加息上限在哪呢？目前官方数据预期在5.1%，近期又有官员说是5.25%，无论最终数值是什么，美联储下一次加息25个基点的可能性在大大增加。当前美联储给出的利率决议时间表如下：

可见2月1号公布的利率决议肯定不会是最后一次加息，如果这一次加息25个基点，那么离预估的上限至少还需要加息两次（不包括2月），这样5月的加息将会是本轮加息的终点。然而从前面分析的美联储应该是希望尽快达到加息上限的出发点判断，如果2月1号继续加息50个基点，那么3月份将成为本轮最后一次加息，而且市场目前对2月加息50个基点或许是不会有多度解读的。目前市场最关心的是美联储能否避免美国经济衰退，实现软着陆。而公布的GDP数据和预测GDP以及就业市场数据均显示美国经济并没有衰退，因此美联储手上的牌应该还是没那么差的。

关心股市的朋友或许会问，美联储政策的这些预判会怎样体现到股市呢?有一点是可以肯定的，美联储不希望股市大涨，也不会允许股市在当前走出熊市恢复生机。如果股市任由自己一意孤行，大幅反弹，那么经济衰退将越来越不可避免，股市后面的痛苦其将因为美联储不得不加大的紧缩政策而大大延长时间。为什么这么说呢？上周的会议纪要明确指出，由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用，所以金融环境不合理的放松，特别是公众因误读FOME反应功能而导致的放松，会使委员会试图恢复价格稳定的努力变得更加艰难和复杂。换言之，FOMC当前是不希望股市上涨的，因为他们担心股市上涨会导致潜在的消费者支出通涨，从而使FOMC不得不延长紧缩政策的时间以等待无法回落到目标区间的通涨缓慢回落。

综上所述，美联储自身对年初加息力度本身就存在很大的分歧，对市场定价拿不定主意，一方面需要抓紧压低通涨，一方面要担心紧缩过度伤害实体经济，毕竟加息效果需要3至7个月的时间才能逐渐在市场体现出来。从股市角度看，每一轮的反弹持续性都是打上问号的，反弹有限几乎是可以肯定的，在美联储达到加息上限以及通涨回到合理区间前，美联储基本不会希望股市入牛。曾有消息传出美联储或将不得不接受市场长时间高于2%的通涨，以鲍威尔的传统做派，这种可能性还是很低的，那样的猜测只会短时间助推股市，反而长时间拖累股市。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

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特斯拉（Tesla，以下称“特斯拉”）位于美国帕洛阿托（Palo Alto），设计、开发、制造、销售和租赁高性能全电动汽车和能源发电及储存系统，并提供与销售产品有关的服务。汽车业务包括电动汽车的设计、开发、制造、销售和租赁等。能源与储能部门主要负责太阳能发电和能源存储产品的设计、制造、安装、销售和租赁以及相关服务。

股价表现回顾：迄今为止，特斯拉今年股价下跌近75%，其市值从高峰期缩水了约8000亿美元（约合人民币5.57万亿元），几乎高于传统汽车制造商的总估值。在2020年7月，特斯拉市值达到了2100亿美元（约合人民币14633亿元），成为彼时全球市值最高的汽车公司，相当于5.5个通用汽车和8.3个福特汽车市值之和。此后，特斯拉便在海外积极扩建业务，不断扩大生产，然而自2022年以来多重因素的影响导致了特斯拉表现每况日下。最近一个季度以来，特斯拉股价加速下跌，明显被美国市场主要指数超越，最近三个月、一个月分别下跌约 50%、23%。

全球市场：新能源汽车市场蓬勃发展，高销量增长趋势或将持续。根据国际能源署（IEA）发表的《2022年全球电动汽车展望》，当前大约有40个国家（地区）制定了全面的电动化时间计划表或发布了燃油车禁令。政策因素持续驱动全球新能源汽车销量空间膨胀。特斯拉最大主营业务为新能源汽车，因此新能源车的全球销量将成为主导其业绩的一个重要因素。近年来，全球范围内各种新车型的密集发布刺激了消费需求。根据历史数据以及普遍的市场预期，我们认为2025年全球新能源汽车渗透率将达到30%左右。从全球及各地区、国家的渗透率来看，目前新能源汽车行业整体处于增长的前中期阶段，仍有较大的市场空间。

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免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yiduo Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师

The JPY had seen some renewed strength after the Bank of Japan finally intervened late in 2022 to widen its target band on its 10-year band to -0.5-0.5% from -0.25-0.25%. This was seen as an overall positive catalyst for the currency and a sign that the Bank may be ready to increase rates. The question that remains is will the market trust the BOJ and continue buying the JPY or is the buying just an opportunity for shorters to enter.

Whilst potential trades exist on most of the JPY pairs, the most promising trade is on the CHFJPY. Technical Analysis The weekly price chart shows an interesting pattern forming. The price initially sold down quite heavily when the BOJ announced its intervention.

The price sold down aggressively but has not been able to pass through the 139.00 level. This support level acts as both the 50-week moving average and a long-term support level. This explains the initial price rejection.

The bounce was emphasised by the candlestick and the length of its wick. The body of the candle is very small and the wick long, highlighting how buyers immediately soaked up the selling potentially creating a pivot point. The daily chart is less encouraging, it still shows the price in a down trend.

Although, there was a strong day of buying, the price has been unable to break through the 142 level. The last few days of trading have shown the price to be selling down consistently after it has opened. Moving forward if the price can break out above the 142 level, it may indicate that the price will be ready for its next move higher.

In the short term, a target near the top of the weekly trend line near 145/146. From a longer-term perspective, a significant reversal may see a potential target of 150.

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《吕氏春秋·博志》：“全则必缺，极则必反。”上回说到，日本昭和幻梦的辉煌，在上个世纪80年代，卖掉日本，买下美国的梦想。 我们先来回顾一下，日本经济如何从战败国迅速腾飞的。 二战战后，美国占领管制，经济开始重组，但是内需不足。却因为朝鲜战争，外需开始急速扩大。低廉的物价和劳动力，使得日本成为世界工厂。

第一第二次石油危机，日本车迅速走向全世界。而此时的美国因为，黄金脱钩，石油危机，高通胀，滞涨等问题，开始大刀阔斧的加息，然后签订了广场协议，逼迫日本抛售美元，以达到转移自身矛盾的目的。 广场协议之后，日元快速升值，日本出口受创，开始了衰退期。于是在经济低迷，日元高位，稳定通胀情况下，日本央行开始降息。降息刺激了经济，消费，日元贬值，也刺激了出口。但是低利率太久后，导致借钱变得容易，钱跑去了房市股市。加上大量的房屋抵押贷款，钱兜兜转转，再次回到了房市股市。因此房价，股价一路攀升，造成了全球最大的资产泡沫，今天的故事就从这里开始。

开始之前，先要说一说日本独有的一个经济体系，就是财阀（财团体系），我们一听首先想到的就是韩国财阀。那么韩国财阀是家族化的企业管理模式，就是围绕着龙头企业进行调配，就像三星集团，企业经营权一直掌握在李氏家族的手中。而当时日本财团体系不一样，是一个权利不集中的模式，是诸多企业围绕着银行和保险公司来运作的一个模式。大家背靠银行，保险公司抱团取暖，进行互帮互助，形成了独有的产业链，从上游到中游再至下游，都在一个财团进行循环，也就是类似于俄罗斯的裙带资本主义。其中有好处，也一定有坏处。那么这里先说好处。在蓬勃发展时期，大家共同推进，共同发展，可以更有效率，发展速度更快。那么在上世纪80年代，金融市场的开放，大多数公司选择发债融资，造成的后果就是银行贷款压力巨大。那么银行方面，每年的贷款是有指标的，当指标完不成之后，就开始寻找信用等级较差的个人和公司进行放贷。当时贷款基本上都是抵押贷款，那个年代，谁没套房子呀，管你还的上还不上，只要抵押，就放贷。这就造成了信用膨胀。是不是有点像08年美国次贷危机的感觉？

而信用膨胀，成为了昭和幻梦，崩塌最为关键的一环。在1990年，日本央行开始意识的持续低利率问题的严重性了，开始瞬间加息，直接从2.5%的低利率给干到了6%。顺应而下的就是股市和楼市的大跌。全球最大的资产泡沫开始被刺破。这次加息造成的就是很多人的失业。当然这个问题还不是很严重，毕竟只是钱开始变得是钱了，那么继续正常运转，也不会出现什么大问题。但是接下来发生的事却是又给了日本经济一记重拳。在加息开始之后，信用膨胀的问题就开始凸显，房子开始越来越不值钱了，抵押贷款的危机来临，银行和各个公司间的坏账成为了一颗逐渐进入倒计时的定时炸弹。

在92左右，通过维持正常运转，似乎已经看到一些回复的希望，无论是GDP还是其他各种数据。然而，财团效应就带来了巨大的蝴蝶效应后果。这就说到了财团两面性的坏处，在大环境不好的时候，大家被一起拉下水。在90年代，日本政府给银行注入了大量资金，希望银行这个定海神针不会倒下。但是呢，银行方面，因为财团间的“互帮互助”，用很多资金救活了大量本应该倒闭，或者淘汰的公司。直接造成了垃圾公司数量上升，好公司数量下降，逐渐的大家就开始了一起摆烂。这时候，实体经济开始出现巨大问题。1997年4月，以日本寿险资产规模排名第16位的日产生命保险公司（Nissan Mutual Life）宣布破产为伊始，拉开了1997-2001年四年间连续7家寿险公司接连倒闭的序幕。在1997年11月26日，是日本经济“最危险的一天”，当天大量民众去银行排队进行取款，风控团队就警告说，银行可能会出现大规模挤兑事件。还好在当天那些排队取款民众及时得到安抚，日本媒体也没有声张，才使得这次危机的没有发生。

虽然没有崩坏，但是日子也不好过，大量的失业率，自杀率，使得日本国民一度是去信心，这也是造成了之后经济停滞的30年的开端。那么再下期，将和大家聊聊，近30年，日本经济为何还在停滞不前，是天灾？还是人祸？或者有着其他更重要的因素？免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师