市场资讯及洞察

热门话题每当一个概念变得炙手可热，资本市场总是会剧烈波动，掀起疯狂的炒作盛宴。随着OpenAI旗下聊天机器人ChatGPT爆红，美股投资者迅速开始狂热炒作，在该赛道有所布局的企业无一例外受到了热捧。百度美股一度大涨逾10%，“美版头条”BuzzFeed两天暴涨300%，C3.ai股价翻了一番多......这股热潮不禁让人回想起了20世纪90年代末的大麻热潮和加密热潮，甚至是网络泡沫。投资者们纷纷涌入股市，随后提出问题。那么经典的争论来了，这波ChatGPT炒作热潮是投机泡沫还是追求长期价值？

ChatGPT是 OpenAI 于 11 月 30 日推出的一款聊天机器人，可以免费测试，能根据用户的提示，模仿类似人类的对话。它是GPT-3模型的变体，GPT-3经过训练，可以在对话中生成类似人类的文本响应。ChatGPT 旨在用作聊天机器人，我们可以对其进行微调，以完成各种任务。ChatGPT不仅会聊天，写得了代码，修复得了bug，还能帮你写工作周报、写小说、进行考试答题，绘画，看病，甚至你还可以诱骗它规划如何毁灭人类，许多人认为，ChatGPT不仅仅是一个聊天机器人，而可能是现有搜索引擎的颠覆者。细分来说，ChatGPT的亮点如下：1）新增代码理解和生成能力，对输入的理解能力和包容度高，能在绝大部分知识领域给出专业回答。2）加入道德原则。即ChatGPT能够识别恶意信息，识别后拒绝给出有效回答。3）支持连续对话。ChatGPT具有记忆能力，提高了模型的交互体验。ChatGPT背后的算法基于Transformer架构，这是一种使用自注意力机制处理输入数据的深度神经网络。Transformer架构广泛应用于语言翻译、文本摘要、问答等自然语言处理任务。以ChatGPT为例，该模型在大量文本对话数据集上进行训练，并使用自我注意机制来学习类人对话的模式和结构。这使它能够生成与它所接收的输入相适应且相关的响应。从投资者角度看，大家更为关注的是ChatGPT的商业化道路是怎样的。从GPT进化到GPT 3，参数量从1.17亿增加到1750亿，预训练数据量从5GB增加到45TB，其中GPT 3训练一次的费用是460万美元，总训练成本达1200万美元。高额投入使得B端变现更具可行性。而如今很多C端应用均为免费版，在C端付费形式刺激度较低的情况下，未来B端或将成为AI绘画软件的核心客户。由于ChatGPT不限于普通聊天，还可解决具体难题，部分用户在社交媒体上表达了对ChatGPT的付费意愿。在商业化道路上，版权问题是生成式AI绕不开的一道坎，绝大多数原创作品的版权拥有者会介意AI提取自身作品的部分元素，但毫无疑问，人工智能将继续发展，并带来各领域一些根本性的变化。就目前而言，相关股票价值真的如当前股价所体现的吗？部分分析师认为这项技术还不成熟，其落地应用仍然不稳定，投资仍然具有高度投机性。

让我们看看近期AI概念股的走势，有美版头条之称的数字媒体公司BuzzFeed，在过去一年股价大跌，但有消息称该公司计划采用人工智能程序 ChatGPT 协助内容创作，股价近期连续大涨，曾在两天内暴涨300%。人工智能软件提供商C3.AI Inc也备受关注，自两年多前上市以来，C3.ai的股价大幅下跌，然而自1月底C3.ai宣布将ChatGPT集成到其产品中，该股股价大幅飙升，自1月5日以来翻了一番多。纵然是其芯片供应商英伟达，在刚刚过去的1月大涨33%，这也是其近6年来涨幅最高的一个月。然而，投机泡沫的迹象似乎也正显现，BuzzFeed的股价已从上周的盘中高点抹去40%，有分析师认为BuzzFeed在短视频内容货币化方面存在不确定性，以及在消费者支出环境疲软的情况下，其易受数字广告支出减少的影响。那么AI概念是否有长期价值呢？基于GPT-3.5的ChatGPT具备更出色的表现和更高的关注度，能够进一步帮助企业、个人节省时间和资源，其背后的的应用空间更为广阔。根据瑞银预计，ChatGPT的月活跃用户已在今年1月份突破1亿，且瑞银称整个生成式人工智能应用程序的市场规模或高达1万亿美元，潜在的发展空间正吸引投资者涌入。Meta CEO扎克伯格最近表示，其主要目标之一是成为生成式人工智能领域的领导者。Alphabet CEO皮查伊在本周的电话财报会议上表示，人工智能之旅才刚刚开始，Snap首席执行官埃文·斯皮格则认为，生成式人工智能是一个“巨大的机会”，并已经投入大量资金。我想这也是近期热炒AI主题股的主要原因。其实我们在筛选投资板块的时候，所谓的追求长期价值需要自己定义一个时间期限，是现在开始的一年？三年？五年？还是十年或许更久？在我看来，AI概念股当下是炒作气势，但缺乏上涨稳定性，不宜追高，至少在3至5年的周期内，AI题材并非首要的热门板块，而这恰恰是大部分散户投资者投资股票的一个临界期，极少数人愿意为3至5年后有可能爆发的股票做等待，很多投资者连一年都持有不了，更不用说AI的时间线或许在十年以上了。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

Market response to any specific economic data release is far from standard even if actual numbers differ greatly from consensus expectations. Rather the market response is based on context of the current economic situation. This week’s non-farm payrolls, being one of the major data points in the month, is a great case in point.

There are many factors and of course the key one for you as an individual trader is your chosen vehicle you are trading (and of course direction i.e. long or short for open positions). The context of today’s impending non-farm payrolls from a market perspective is interest rate expectations going forward. This week the Fed gave the market the expected.25% cut that was already priced into currency, bond and equity market pricing.

The market response however, as this was already priced in, was as a result of the accompanying statement which was not as dovish as perhaps anticipated and a reduction in expectations of a further imminent cut. From an equity market point of view the result, despite the interest rate cut, was to sell off, whereas from the USD perspective this lessening expectation of further rate cuts was bullish. Perhaps this could be viewed as contrary to what the textbooks would suggest is a standard response.

So, onto today's non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure… Logic would suggest that a strong number is good news for the economy, and so should be positive for equities and perhaps bearish for USD. However, as this may be a critical number in the Feds decision making re. interest rate decisions, a strong NFP is likely to have the opposite effect. A weaker number is likely to be perceived as potentially contributory to thinking that another rate cut may be prudent sooner and so despite on the surface being “bad news”, it would not be surprising to see equities stronger and USD weaker.

It remains to be seen of course what the number is and the actual response but is perhaps a lesson in seeing new market information within the potential context of the current economic circumstances and of course incorporate this in your risk assessment and trading decision making. Mike Smith Educator Go Markets [email protected] Disclaimer The articles are from GO Markets analysts based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of the their own and of a ‘general’ nature.

Advice (if any) are not based on the readers personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should therefore consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.

We frequently refer both in the articles we publish and the weekly “Inner Circle” sessions we present, to the benefits of a trading journal. However, the reality is that many traders make the choice not to measure trading despite the logical benefits of doing so. Whether you do or don’t currently, the bottom-line decision you are making is not only whether you do or don’t but how that positions yourself with your trading development.

We would suggest that this overall choice can be broken down into the following three sub-choices. You can make the decisions that are right for you subsequently. Sub-choice 1 – Measuring your system You are either making the choice to: Have certainty on not only whether your trading plan as a whole can create positive outcomes but have evidence to know which component parts of your plan are e.g. indicators you use for entry and exit, comparing strategies you trade, timeframes that work best for you, (and which are not) contributing to such outcomes.

Additionally, it allows you to compare what would happen if you change some of the perimeters on your potential results. OR You have no evidence as to whether your system as a whole and its components parts are working well to serve you in getting the results you desire. Nor do you can test and gather evidence as to what the impact of nay changes you may make to that system, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

Sub-choice 2 – Measuring you as a trader You are either making the choice to: Know the degree to which you are following your plan or otherwise so you can ultimately make a judgement on: a. Whether your system is working for you (all the points in sub-choice 1 above CANNOT be made unless you are following your plan religiously). b. What you need to work on in terms of tightening your behaviour e.g. on exits or entry c.

Whether there are certain market conditions which you find difficult or are ill-prepared for (so you can fill any knowledge gaps or avoid in the future). OR You can continue to trade as you do, avoiding any self-assessment and growth, and the refinement of your behaviour that may contribute to more positive trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

Sub-choice 3 – Improving your trading (closing the circle) (let’s assume you are keeping a journal for this one) You are either making the choice to: Measure with purpose that has clear follow through into further development and refinement of your trading plan and subsequently your actions. This facilitates the development of you as a trader based on your individual character and trading style. In practical terms, you ‘close the circle’ with a defined review and develop an action plan based on your review to test and change parts of your plan.

This is evidence-based trading! OR You can measure for measurements sake to on the surface appear to be “doing a right thing” but in reality, failing to unleash the real power of journaling, that is to make an on-going and continuous positive difference to your trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

In summary, if you have made the choice to read this article to its end you are left with one ultimate choice…to journal or not to journal including the three sub-choices that dependent on which you are making can impact on your trading. So, for one last time, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results what should my actions be with what I have read in this article? Our next steps and Share CFD education programme both have indicative trading journal templates to help get you started, and we would be delighted if you could join us.

Mike Smith Educator GO Markets Disclaimer The articles are from GO Markets analysts based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Find additional Forex trading education resources here. Next: 5-point checklist for using chart patterns within your tradin

Success leaves clues, and over the years as an educator and coach, I can confidently say that there are several things that traders who achieve positive trading outcomes appear to do, that less successful traders are not doing. One of these is to have a daily agenda or habits that go alongside direct trading activities with the aims of getting and staying in the optimum “state” to trade and to facilitate consistency in action. Here are 5 observations to consider… #1 – Check in on your potential “trading state” before you look at the market We have discussed in previous articles the advantages of making decisions when you are in an optimum state to do this.

I highly recommend you read my 10 Ways to Manage Your Trading Psychology – a Blueprint for Development post if you haven't already. If one constantly interacts with the market, consistent and constructive action may be more difficult. Therefore, logically "checking in" where you are before you start your trading day becomes even more necessary.

It may be there are things going on in your non-trading world that are significant enough to be a justifiable distraction and require attention, or you are not in the best of health. However, it's important to realise that the markets WILL always be there. There are times when it is good to trade and times when you should give yourself permission not to. #2 – Re-align with trading purpose and plan at the start of your trading day Your trading purpose, or your reason for trading, is your start point for developing strategies that are consistent with your trading objectives.

Your trading plan is your “guiding light” in making this purpose happen. Every trading decision should relate to these, and without it, traders have a lower chance of creating the trading outcomes they desire. In the “heat of the market”, it is easy to get “sucked in” to the price action of open trades as you see your trading capital moving up and down.

Without the explicit instruction of a pre-prepared plan, it becomes more difficult to maintain the consistency and clarity that it is already characteristic of experienced traders. Touching base, or re-aligning with these at the start of your trading day offers a reminder as to the why and how you will think, decide and act in the hours to come. #3 – Make a judgment on what to expect Every day the market throws up different challenges, different price movements, volatility, and new economic information, influencing overall market sentiment. Advanced traders take the time to make an overview judgment on what is happening and adjust decisions on time-frames traded, risk level or chosen strategies, accordingly.

For example, one of the possibilities we have discussed in a previous article and in Inner Circle sessions is the concept of adjusting risk level according to the strength of the signal or underlying market conditions. What we mean by this is that if our normal tolerable risk level is 2% of our trading account capital on each trade as a standard and we note increased market uncertainty indicated by higher price volatility, but identify a potential opportunity for entry, we may adjust that risk level to 1% in light of this observation. Having a system to make a judgment prior to trading allows this sort of approach to be taken, making it an unquestionable attribute of an experienced trader. #4 – Check in with yourself at key points during your trading day Your emotional state can, and often will change throughout your trading day, primarily dependent on either the results you are getting or your judgment on performance.

We are all familiar with the concept of ‘revenge trading’ if a trade, or series of trades move against you. This is at the extreme end of capital damaging emotional state. Equally and more insidiously dangerous is a succession of wins or losses where your consistency may waver, either originating from a belief that you can perhaps “feel the market” or begin to doubt yourself as a trader.

A potential solution is to have it written in your plan that if either of these scenarios is the case, then you could move away from the market for a period of time, enabling you to reset, re-align and revisit the market later on with a refreshed sense of purpose and plan. #5 – Review your day including completion of journaling tasks Formal review of performance is a critical part of on-going trading development. We have discussed many times the benefits of keeping a journal record of your trades, within not only measure outcomes, but the decisions that were taken to create these. Completing your journal daily may identify common threads of both things that went well (and you can mirror going forward) as well as potential areas for development.

Experienced traders who do this give themselves that important chance of sustainable growth which appears to be a key factor in long term trading outcomes. To summarise, you always have a choice as to whether you integrate what you read into your trading. In this case, it is the choice of having a daily agenda that can contribute positively to your long term trading strategy.

Every week I run education webinars offering innovative and comprehensive learning across all aspects of trading knowledge and practice. If you would like to expand your knowledge and build your confidence as a trader while also connecting with other Forex and CFD traders, register here.

One of the most common questions we are asked on some of the webinar sessions we run is “What timeframe might be best for me to trade?”. This slightly longer article than we would usually write, seemed merited to provide some detailed “food for thought” as it appears to be an important issue for many. This is not something we can answer for you as an individual, as which timeframe(s) you choose to trade is a personal choice, but the purpose of this article is to put forward some of the considerations that you should contemplate as you make this decision for yourself.

Generally speaking, and to offer up some sort of definition for the purposes of this article, traders choose to trade: Shorter (fast) timeframes intraday (1-15 mins) Medium timeframes intraday (30mins-4 hourly) Longer (slow timeframes) daily (4-hourly-daily) There are usually two common motivations that may lead the trader to consider a change in the timeframes they are currently trading: a. Having difficulties “fitting” trading around other life activities. b. Believe that changing timeframes may produce improved results (or same results with less impact on lifestyle).

Before moving on further, and particularly if in the “b” group ask yourself this key question: Should I be considering a timeframe change at all or are there other priorities I should have? Before considering a timeframe change, we assume that you have the following in place: You have a written trading plan/system that specifies entry, exit and position sizing criteria AND the timeframe(s) you are currently trading. You look at the market before making any decision related to entry (including pending orders), initial risk minimising exit (stop loss), profit targets, and any trailing of your initial stop.

You consider economic data/announcements as part of your decision-making processes and understand the different impact that different types of “news” can create. You have a method through which you can determine the success or otherwise of the decisions you make including that of timeframes traded (e.g. a trading journal). If you do not have ALL the above in place, then perhaps your priority may NOT be deciding whether to change timeframes.

So, with a tick placed by the above, if it is right to consider a change in time-frame, there are commonly three overview factors to consider. 1. Your access to the market (screen-time – how much and when). 2. Flexibility (how frequently you can touch base with the live market). 3.

Competence and understanding relating to the practical trading implications of any timeframe including trading set ups and risk management including position sizing. Let’s explore these in a little more detail with FOUR key considerations: 1. Technical considerations Here is the good news…The following are relevant in ANY and MULTIPLE timeframes: Chart patterns Candle information Indicator usage in entry and exit systems If you are moving to a longer time-frame consider: Differences in key chart values (e.g. volatility).

You need to adjust your thinking in terms of what is the norm for the timeframe you are looking at. So, for example a 40 pip move in a 4-hourly chart may be the normal value whereas on a 15-minute chart this would be a massive move. Key data times.

There are critical points in the day where there may be several economic data releases in a relatively short time-span. These usually coincide with the opening of relevant equity market open. So, for example most of the significant data out of the US will be released within a two-hour window straddling the US stock market open (8.30-10.30 US EST).

Hence price action seen on charts, will usually be at its most active during these times. Get to know these if you are trading longer term timeframes. 2. Risk and position size considerations: With faster timeframes, traders generally: • Open larger positions with the trading idea of a smaller Pip move. • Have a tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Are aware the even “less significant data” can create more relative market “noise” and need to have this factored into trading entry and exits decisions.

With slower timeframes, traders generally: • Open smaller positions with the aim of a larger Pip move. Tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Have a wider stop-loss as smaller movements irrelevant and so there is less chance of being taken out by price movement “noise” within a longer price move. • Are aware that relative major movements are from major data points (and therefore need to learn what these are). 3. Practical considerations Firstly, look at the time you have to invest in your trading (and this may be subject to negotiation with partners etc., and of course with what else is going on in your life).

If you are planning ring-fencing screen time, for example a couple of hours per day, then giving the attention to trading shorter timeframes may be more viable. If it difficult to access larger amount of “block” time but short frequent touch base with the market is possible, then longer timeframes may be more suitable. Generally speaking, to give an example of how the latter may work in practical terms, you may have a trail stop strategy that you wish to adjust at the close of each candle/bar.

If this is the case, then if you can check in hourly, an hourly timeframe may work for you. Four other things to consider: Even if trading longer timeframes some trader choose to use a shorter timeframe to ‘refine’ entry, if trading a daily chart. After entry, as stated previously you should subsequently stick to the longer timeframe for decisions.

If trading shorter timeframes, many traders use a daily chart for the “big picture” to identify long term trends (to avoid trading against these) or to identify longer term key price points (e.g. well-established support and resistance). There are some trading approaches that are promoted as being daily approaches e.g. Inside bar.

Holding costs are associated with daily chart trading and of course you can touch base with your account manager for further clarity). 4. Mindset Considerations: Any article on just about anything to do with trading would not be complete without some reference to the psychological and subsequent behavioural aspects of the topic. Here are some of the common mindset issues to consider: With shorter timeframes: • It is easier to get sucked in to watching price movements (i.e. ‘staring’ at the P/L column continuously) that may evoke emotional decision making rather than be based on your trading system and CHART price action. • Short term trading is perceived as being more “exciting”.

If you find this resonates ask yourself are you really trading for excitement or for profit? • Your business is “done for the day” when you are finished trading which means you are not “distracted” by the market when other life things should have your focus. With longer timeframes: • Not generally “peddled” as an advantage of FX trading by the “gurus” out there. Therefore, it may feel that to trade daily charts is going ‘against the norm’ and may feel uncomfortably strange at first. • If you have traded shorter timeframes previously, it is a habit you may have to work at breaking and resist the temptation to take a “sneak peek” at shorter timeframe charts, and alter your decision-making. • There are many “experts” you will see wheeled on to give an opinion on CNBC, Bloomberg etc that have a prediction about what may happen in the future to any currency (or index/commodity if trading CFDs).

Remember: a. These “experts” are not your ticket to riches but are there to make interesting TV as well as provide some insight. Indeed, you will often find contrary experts brought on at different times in the day.

Their opinions should be viewed as you would with any “hot tip” i.e. thank you ‘Mr Expert’, but does it fit my trading plan? b. There is a greater temptation to move away from one of the golden rules of system trading i.e. “Trading what you see rather than what you think” (or what the experts think)”. • May occupy thinking throughout the day and so may be more difficult to “let go” and give the focus to the rest of your world outside trading. And to finish….

What happens next is down to you! If you haven’t tried to trade longer/shorter timeframes why don’t you test it out (but see point re, should it be your priority). Trade as you do now LIVE and trade different timeframe on demo.

Compare not only the results but the impact on the rest of your life activities. Journaling may help. You may make the choice to trade multiple timeframes.

If you do then you should make sure this is reflected in your trading plan/system and what market circumstances would lead you to trade which timeframes. We trust that this has been useful, even if the outcome is that you make the decision to continue to trade your current chosen timeframes and of course please feel free to share this article if you think it would benefit others (it’s easy just click on one of the social media links to make it happen). Finally, if you are not part of the growing GO Markets ‘Inner Circle’ community, where you can access weekly education sessions, you are invited to join our Facebook group "Time For a Change?

Considering Longer or Shorter Timeframe FX and CFD Trading " is written by Mike Smith - an external Analyst and is based on his independent analysis. He remains fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

For more information on trading, check out our forex trading webinar.

Using profits targets in trading, irrespective of trading vehicle chosen (e.g. Forex, Index/commodity CFDs, Share CFDs), is commonly discussed as potential exit strategy. The reality however is that these are often executed with a lack of consistency with ambiguity in trading plan statements.

This article revisits profit targets and outlines some key issues to consider in your trading plan. The terms “take profit” (or T/P on your trading platform) and “profit target” are interchangeable. What do we mean a profit target?

Like a stop loss, (though obviously related to taken a profit rather than a loss), a profit target is a pre-set price point (decided on entry) at which you have chosen to exit. The main two considerations as a trader are: When do I use a profit target? Where do a place it?

When do I use a profit target? Essentially there are three choices namely never, always or intermittently. These invariably tend to match three distinct trading styles of the individual trader.

Those who NEVER use a profit target tend to be shorter term traders (less than 30 mins time-frame) who are “in the market” for a set period of time during the day and will close all positions at the end of their ring-fenced time. Ideally there with associated use of a trail stop system. Those who ALWAYS use a profit target go across multiple time-frames, still using an initial and trail stop but often either use: Key price points i.e. placed above the next support if in a short trade or below the next resistance if in a long trade.

A multiple of risk e.g. if using a 2:1 ratio then x2 the risk level. Using this ratio as an example if your initial stop is placed 10 pips below entry in a long trade then the profit target is placed 20 pips above entry. Even if one is using key price points as your norm, this may be useful in those situations where no previous technical landmark exists e.g. when a price hits a new price high.

Those who PARTIALLY use a profit are commonly those who will trade without one whilst watching the market but when they move away will put one in place e.g. when holding a position overnight. So, your first choice is simple, which of these three is a ‘fit’ for you. Where do I place it?

We have spoken previously about the need to be specific in your plan to facilitate consistency and measurement. As with any other component part of your trading plan, your profit target is no different. Here are some suggestions: If you are choosing a key price point as your guide to placing your profit the be specific regarding how far away.

Please note: to use ‘Pips”/Cents/Points may not translate across time-frames e.g. in technical terms 10 Pips above a support in a 5 minute time-frame is very different relatively speaking to 10 Pips on an hourly chart. Therefore, it may be worth considering something like an ATR (or fraction of) which takes into account the standard movement in a particular time-frame e.g. 0.5 ATR above an identified support level. If you are choosing to use the concept of risk/reward ratio as previous discussed, then your placement of profit target is dependent on the initial stop level you set.

Then this becomes a simple maths calculation. So, absolutely clarity about how you are placing this initial stop e.g. technical landmark is the specificity that you need to work on. And finally… Bear in mind of course that: Other exit strategies that are part of your plan for open trades such as your initial and trail stop or your approach when there is an imminent economic announcement are still part of your decision-making, even if you have a profit target in place.

These need equal unambiguity when articulated in your trading plan as with your profit target. Once you have ‘planted your flag’ and of course traded your specific plan with a critical mass of trades, you are then in a position to test different parameters e.g. alternative distances away from a key price point. Your mission from here is to decide whether and how you are going to use profit targets and subsequent to write placement details in your plan...and then of course follow through with the discipline to trade it.

Mike Smith Educator and course facilitator GO Markets Disclaimer The article from GO Markets analysts is based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.