市场资讯及洞察

热门话题

对于日本经济乃至全球经济而言，日本央行的此次行动可能只是一个开始。本周或整个2022年最黑天鹅的事件也许就是周二日本央行修改收益率曲线控制(YCC)的行动了。当日日币升值，血洗全球债市和股市，让所有投资者猝不及防。其可能意味着是日本退出2016年开始实行的YCC计划和货币宽松的开端，后续将对全球金融市场造成深远影响。

首先我们要了解下何谓收益率曲线控制（YCC），英文Yield Curve Control(YCC),是央行控制国债收益率的手段。通过购买目标期限的国债（一般为10年期），央行会将该期限国债收益率压低至目标水平，使得无风险收益率水平下降，进而推动信贷利率下行，刺激经济增长。要知道日本是全球发达经济体中为数不多的温和通胀国家，相比欧美，日本物价水平长期在2%以下。新冠肺炎疫情期间，消费物价水平甚至连续数月低于0%，因此日本已经多年维持-0.1%的基准利率水平以求刺激经济。此前经济学家和市场预计日本央行将在当日的12月议息会议上宣布继续保持长期货币政策不变，然而这次意外放宽10年期国债收益率波动区间至±0.5%，较此前±0.25%大幅提高。截至收盘，当日日经指数下跌3%，所有日元货币对全线下跌，其中美日下跌520点，跌幅3.8%。此举不是加息，却胜似加息。

问题来了，为何这个不是加息，仅仅是修改YCC就会对市场造成这么大的影响呢？答案是日本是连续蝉联31年的世界最大债权国！截至2021年底，日本净对外投资411万亿日元，创历史新高，债券投资（美债最大债权国）比重占总债权的26%，权益类（股票）投资占20%。本国债市收益率的溢价会带动其海外投资套利的转向，哪怕是少量的回流结算都会造成较大的汇率波动。

同时汇率的波动又会反向影响其海外资产。大家都知道今年美联储和各国央行开始货币紧缩加息，导致日元贬值严重，其在海外的资产相应也是增加很多。即便是2021年底，日元兑美元汇率为1美元兑115.12日元，与2020年底相比贬值逾1成，其将外币计价资产的估值就推高了81.8万亿日元。当前比如美元也已经开始触顶走低，为了避免后续日元升值带来的利差继续收窄，海外投资会加速回归，市场的机会就来了。首先我们来看下受影响最大之一的货币对美日行情。技术面周线级别如下图，货币对11月初已经下破13和21均线带转为空头趋势，昨日大跌进一步确认下杀。当前价格触及130.5左右支撑压力互换位暂时企稳，短线有机会反弹至133-133.6左右。但空头趋势不改，价格下行将测试下方支撑位在2021年1月至今年最高点的50%斐波那契回调位127和126-124区间，该区间是2015年和2007年高点。如果上述位置无法阻挡日元升值，价格继续下破61.8%位置120左右后，则行情将彻底逆转成空头主导或震荡走势。相反，如果小概率机会出现上涨超过133.6，也不能宣告多头胜利，直至价格能强势突破136-137区间阻力。

其次关于日本本国股市，一般提高10年起国债收益率后会抽离股市资金，在进一步影响借贷利率后，对企业的长期发展也是起抑制作用。笔者的偏见是看多日元的同时，可以看空日经指数。今年指数呈区间规则震荡走势，交投于29420-24600之间。目前处于下行小趋势中，短期目标位大概率可以锁定在25700左右，为5、6、9月低点。如果下破该位置，则看向24600-24000支撑区间。相反，如果价格超跌反弹，空头策略止损位可以考虑设置在26700。至于做多策略则需要更多信号和理由。

至于全球股市的影响，如果此次事件持续引起银行和养老基金的日本投资者抛售全球股票，这甚至可能导致包括新兴市场资产在内的全球资产也受到影响。目前，日本投资者在海外股票和债券上的投资超过3万亿美元，其中一半以上存放在美国。根据彭博的数据显示，荷兰、澳大利亚和法国等其他国家也很容易受到日本资金回流的影响。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jack Lin | GO Markets 新锐分析师

热门话题

马斯克此前霸气向苹果宣战，起因就是让开发商们不满已久的“苹果税”。苹果会对在其应用商店中上架的应用里产生的消费收取15%-30%不等的抽成。马斯克收购推特后面对着每年10个亿的高昂利息，好不容易可以靠蓝V认证创收，还要给苹果当佃农，实在难以忍受。虽然，结果不出所料，马斯克雷声大雨点小，转头就与苹果握手言和，苹果也表示不会下架推特，而且也会继续投放广告。而推特这边的蓝V服务在其他平台为8美元，而在苹果设备的价格将为11美元，这多出的3美元就是苹果税。

当然苹果并非是唯一一个抽成的，谷歌商店也收税“谷歌税”，三星商店也收，但是较苹果略低一些。谷歌对于所有开发商前100万的收入抽成15%，超出部分则为30%。而苹果的标准是对于年收入少于100万的开发商抽成15%，而年收入超过15%的开发商基本全部收取30%。这也可以解释苹果商城中的应用数量截止今年三季度下降到了164.28万，而安卓拥有355. 31万个软件。苹果商店中的应用数量虽然仅为谷歌的一半，但由于更高的抽成产生的利润却比谷歌多。在2021年的苹果财报中显示，包含应用抽成在内的服务收入占总收入的比例已经超过20%，同时该项目的毛利润高达71.7%，是卖实体产品毛利润的两倍，这笔钱赚得轻松容易。苹果之所以能如此高傲的原因就是苹果所建立的IOS生态非常完善，一个Apple ID可链接所有设备，同时也给用户提供了了更高的隐私性和安全性。安卓走了另一条道路，安卓的系统开放自由，但是同时安卓的恶意软件的数量是苹果的47倍。

当然反抗“苹果税”的斗争一直在进行中，2021年，韩国就向苹果发起诉讼，结果是苹果商店开放了第三方支付，但是苹果税只下降到26%。2022年，荷兰也发起了反抗，对苹果罚款总计5千万欧元，同时开放约会类软件的第三方应用。最具成效的是今年欧盟通过了数字服务法和数字市场法，规定苹果必须允许第三方支付和外部应用商店，这意味着，不通过苹果商城也可以下载应用。有消息表示苹果准备引进外部应用商店。虽然苹果面临罚款和苹果税的流失，但苹果在欧盟的抽成收入仅占其营收的1%，而且苹果收入的80%还是来源于产品。但是如果这一政策被其他国家所效仿，这对软件硬件相结合的严丝合缝的苹果生态是一个破坏，市场担忧的也是苹果强大的生态系统护城河的减弱。但是，这一情况是否会发生还有待商榷，欧盟推出其法案的根本目的还是保护本地区的发展缓慢的互联网企业。同时，苹果的生态系统虽然对开发者不友好，但是用户还是很买账的。苹果用户的消费意愿远高于安卓用户，这得益于苹果带来的隐私和安全性。

回看今年的几大科技巨头，亚马逊较去年高点跌去了50%，脸书跌超了65%，苹果的跌幅不到30%，截止发文股价为132，已经是很坚挺了。明年，苹果还是面临了很多挑战，一方面是宏观经济环境对需求端的破坏，另一方面供应端的压力还没有完解除。从K线图上看，苹果在130左右的位置上获得支撑，在150-160的位置上面临阻力。但是，宏观环境的影响注定2023年苹果还会面临挑战，如果您对苹果有兴趣，不妨再耐心等待一下明年一季度和二季度的财报表现。如果是长线投资者，那么也不用忧心，苹果有强大的现金流支持，同时其技术和品牌优势也为其股价提供了韧性。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jaden Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师

Many traders early on in their trading journey may jump into trading without knowing if their system or edge can be profitable. The most important metric that a trader should measure their system on is by using expected value. This essentially wors out the average return that the system will return for every trade that it makes, considering both winning trades and losing trades.

The formular for the expected value is written below. Expected Value = (Probability of winning trade X Average Winning Trade Value) – (Probability of a Losing trade X Average Loss) For example, Trader A - Wins 40% of their trades - Loses 60% of their trades - Average win = $20 - Average Loss = $10 Therefore, Expected Value = (0.4x20) – (0.6x10) = $2 This means over the long run the system will return $2.00 per trade made. This relationship describes any trading strategy or edge’s average performance per trade.

Therefore, by determining the expected value a trader can see how effective their edge will be excluding slippage and transaction costs in the long term. Risk and Return The relationship also shows that a strategy does not need to necessarily win every single trade to be profitable. The rule of risk and reward is that they are inversely correlated.

This means that the more a trader is willing to risk, whether it be size or distance to a stop loss the higher potential reward. Alternatively, the less risk a trader takes the lower potential reward. It doesn’t matter which type of trader you are often different personality types will gravitate to either more frequent winning and smaller winnings or larger winnings, but a smaller number of wins.

In fact, a trader may only need to be profitable on 20% of their trades if they can ensure that their average winning trades are more profitable by a factor of 5:1. A strategy that wins more frequently may only need a smaller average win vs its average loss. When testing a system, it is important that there is sufficient data to ensure the inputs for the above formula is accurate.

This means using data from various time periods and potentially across a range of markets to measure the Expected Value of the system. See below for the required a=Average Winning trade/Average Loss trade per Average win rate for a breakeven trading system. Ultimately it is vital that when assessing the performance of a trading strategy or edge to be able to measure the profitability of the system.

The best way to do this is by using expected value. Profitable trading strategies can be made with either a high win rate and low average W/L ratio or a low winning strategy with a high W/L ratio.

The USDJPY has dropped more than 400 pips in just a few minutes after the Bank of Japan brought adjusted its intervention criteria. The bank did not change its official rate, which are -0.10%, an extremely low figure compared to almost every other country. Japan has been a show of dovishness in a sea of hawkishness.

However, this latest move has been seen by the market as hawkish as the USDJPY dropped to its lowest levels since August and sent the equity market falling. The Bank of Japan committed to widening its yield curve control. Prior to the announcement the bank had allowed for movement of -0.25% to 0.25% before interviewing by way of buying and selling government bonds.

However, the latest move has seen the bank change the threshold to -0.5% to 0.5% before intervening. This allows the Bank of Japan to lessen its intervention going forward. The largest move was in the USDJPY which crashed below its 200-day moving average to fall by more than 400 pips.

On the 15-minute chart, the price is currently consolidating as it decides what to do next. A break of the lows at 133.1 may bring the next support at 131.245 into play. On the contrary, if the price can bounce at this level it may move to 134.5.

With the US trading session still to play out tonight there may be some trading opportunities that arise.

在澳洲生活的朋友们都知道，如果说到澳洲的连锁百货商店，除开一些中小型商店，在主要城市中从低端到高端的排列一般是：Kmart, BigW, Target, Myer, 以及最高端的David Jones。这些商场几乎都被Coles和Woolworth两家大型超市上市公司所拥有。换句话说，澳洲的大型连锁从超市到日用百货，再到衣服和高档化妆品，几乎都属于两大超市集团阵营。这样的情况一直持续到了2009年MYER集团从Coles集团中剥离出来独立上市。我本人还傻傻的认购了MYER的新股，结果很神奇的在第二周就成功破发，之后几年就再也没有回到原始价格。最终我在2年后割肉离场。并且其股价在过去10年里几乎年年在下跌，CEO也是换了一拨又一拨，但是就是不见业绩好转。

当然，今天我们不聊Myer, 主要聊的是更加高端的商场：David Jones. 这家商场有184年的历史主要销售中高端的化妆品，鞋帽箱包，以及家用电器。甚至有几十个奢侈品牌入驻。但是就是这样高端的商场，从2014年被南非的Woolwroth集团私有化买下后，到如今依然逃不过亏损，被贱卖的下场。2014年，总部位于南非的Woolworths Holdings出资21亿澳元收购了 David Jones。包含了在澳洲和新西兰的43家门店和两个配送中心。然而2014年的14亿，经过8年的苦心经营之后，在本周却以1亿澳元的价格被卖给了悉尼本地的一个管理资金只有8.1亿澳元的私募基金Anchorage Capital。和所有实体店一样，David Jones经历了2020年以来的3年疫情时期，光是在2020年3月和4月，其销售额就同比下跌了35%。而对比其他独立实体店，又因为David Jones通常租用大面积的场地和长期保持服务员工而导致固定成本远高于其他商场。但是在过去2年中，除了疫情带来的影响以外，更为致命的一个策略错误就是：其母公司南非Woolworth集团（不是澳洲Woolworth，但是也有点血缘关系）决定开设和扩建数十家David Jones食品店和在BP加油站贩售David Jones品牌的食品。之所以这么做，是因为，在南非，Woolworths控股旗下的零售集团就是以销售高档衣服，家居用品和高品质的食品杂货类为主。并且通过商场的辐射同时提供信用卡，个人财富管理等金融服务。简单来说，南非的母公司想把它们在南非和非洲的成功经验引入澳洲。这个想法是好，但是结果却截然相反。David Jones在过去2年里开设的大部分精品食品店和加油站里的中高档小店铺全部以亏损和失败告终。这也使得其财务报表上又增加了每年1500万澳元的亏损。那究竟是什么原因，导致了原本在南非和非洲地区的成功经验，无法在澳洲复制呢？难道所有的失败都归结到疫情的身上？当然不可能。同样的实体和线上连锁店，贩卖电子和家电产品的JB HiFi在疫情里就赚得盆满钵满。那到底是什么原因？我不是法官，无法盖棺定论，所以如果各位看官觉得我说错了，请高抬贵手。我个人认为，是因为消费群体的不同。南非Woolworth集团之所以可以利用高档衣服，床上用品，搭配高档食品策略可以在当地成功，是因为依靠着当地快速增长的中产阶级基础之上，这些从普通阶层上升到中产阶层后对于生活品质和品牌的要求骤然提高，而这时一家可以全方位提供中高档吃穿用的商场，就成为了当地新兴中产阶级非常愿意追随的品牌，并且也是更多还没有上升到中产阶级民众梦寐以求的品牌。而在澳洲，David Jones所面对的客户群，显然不是一回事。澳洲的大部分民众早已完成了从普通到中产的升级，因此大部分人并没有一定要在David Jones买衣服，即使是街边小店，很多也可以依靠特色完胜David Jones。因此绝大部分的消费者并没有因为去David Jones购买产品而有所谓的“虚荣感”。再加上澳洲的食品质量普遍很高，David Jones出售的糖果，水果和街边特色小店甚至超市里的并没有太大的差异。这又是和南非当地情况巨大的差别。因此就算David Jones开的食品店，也无法形成排队和抢购的风潮。

说白了，南非Woolwworth用于服务当地“新贵”的种种营销策略，无法在澳洲这个拥有者大量“老富”（Old Money）阶层的社会里套用。再加上疫情导致的流动人口和游客骤减，直接导致David Jones希望对高消费人群使用高档食品所谓的硬刚需来盈利的想法无情的破灭。其实我们从澳洲乃至全世界目前的个人消费趋势来看，大而全的商场普遍盈利能力下降。而小而精，专注某一领域的特色连锁店则可以更好的满足特定消费人群的需求。我在这里给大家测试一个简单的题：如果你是一家商场的CEO，你要选择目标消费人群年纪，你觉得是50-60岁人群在商场的消费实力强，还是年龄在20-30岁的消费能力强？毫无疑问，大多数人都会选择50-60岁人群。然而目前商业调查数据中得到的结果却显示，20-30岁人群的年均总体去商店的购买能力是所有年龄里最强的。注意，这里调查的不是买房，买车，而是一年里去商场的消费。虽然50-60岁人群拥有最多的财富，但是由于工作，家庭等原因，这类人群没有太多时间去商场。相反大学毕业到30岁之间的单身人群，是去商场最频繁的，并且按照其一人吃饱，全家不饿的生活方式，月光那是必须的。

所以目前盈利的连锁店和商场，绝大部分都是出售那些符合20-30岁年龄人群的商品，而非20年前的那些高档西服和床单店。而这类人群通常不需要高档华丽的装修风格，因此我们可以看到在那些迎合年轻人消费方式的连锁店里，很难看到大量装修元素。更多的是产品的更新换代，以及更有竞争力的价格。时代在变，主力消费人群也在改变，但是很可惜，David Jones因为单店太大，无法适应如今的年轻化，网络化的消费模式，加上澳洲巨大的人力和物流成本，这就注定了大型商场从低端搞高端，都很难盈利的原因。（BigW Target 也连年亏损）那么各位从David Jones模式失败的教训中，可以学到什么呢？欢迎大家回复邮件，提供你想聊的话题，我会尽量选择当下社会经济的热点来给大家带来一些新闻以外的点评。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Corporate actions are activities that material effect an organisation and impacts the key stakeholders including shareholders and creditors. They can affect the stock price both in good and bad ways. Corporate actions are most often determined and voted on by the board of directors of the company.

Although sometimes, shareholder will be given the chance to either vote or participate in these actions such as placements. Why are they important? Corporate actions materially affect the share price are highly important to understand.

This means that the actual value of the company or the share price will change due to one of these actions. This also means that they can be great catalysts for volatile trade opportunities Examples of Common Corporate Actions Dividends Mature companies or companies who record consistent profits may issue dividends to their ordinary shareholders. It is important to understand what a dividend is.

It is a company distributing a share of its profits to give back to investors. This dividend is paid to investors and means that once the dividend has been returned the share price must be adjusted to reflect the reduction in future cashflow. Dividends may also be issued via a reissuing of shares or a reinvestment plan.

Stock Split A stock split is when a company decides to split each of its shares by a certain ratio for example 1:5 or 1:10. The reason that companies will split stocks are usually for liquidity purposes. When a company has small number of outstanding shares it often leads to low liquidity and volatile prices due to large spreads between the bid and ask prices.

Therefore, by splitting stocks the company can improve the liquidity of its share price. The results of this action will increase liquidity but also lower the share price and volatility of the security. Reverse stock split or consolidation The process of a stock consolidation is just the reverse of a stock split.

This occurs when a company’s share price is too low or is too easily manipulated because there are too many shares available to trade. It is also important to note that most exchanges have rules that will strike out company’s trading on their exchange if the share price drops too low. Therefore, a stock consolidation may occur may have to happen out of necessity.

Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and acquisitions are probably the most complex corporate action to understand. They generally involve one company buying or taking over another company. This process can take some time and is not as generic as the other actions.

There are multiple ways in which the buying company can purchase the other company. It may involve payment of cash, debt, shares, option, or a combination of these and other financing options. Most often the company buying, will have to pay a premium to cover the goodwill from the company being acquired.

The initial bid therefore provides a valuation for the company being acquired. To further complicate matters, a bid especially an initial bid is not always the final offer which makes finding a fair value for the share price difficult and provides great opportunities for trading as the market tries to find the fair value. Rights Issuing or share placements Companies for a variety of reasons need to raise money.

They can do this by selling new shares to existing shareholders or even private institutions. This enables the company to increase its equity. At the same time this dilutes the shares outstanding which will most likely reduce the price of the company’s shares.

In addition, these placements or new issues are often prices that are already discounted to the price at the time of the placement. A company may raise capital for a variety of reasons which include, increasing cash at hand, dealing with liquidity problems, purchasing of new equipment, purchasing of another company. Share Buyback A share buyback is when a company decides to purchase its own shares from the float to reduce the number available for trade.

Companies may do this to either regain control of some of the shares or also to increase the value of their shares for its holders. Whilst it is a different mechanism it has a similar effect to a dividend. This is because as the company buys back the shares the supply reduces, and the purchasing of the shares increases the market price.

Corporate actions are an important part of the capital markets and as catalysts for price changes for shares. Therefore, traders should be aware of the different types of corporate actions and the effect they can have on the price of a company’s share price.