市场资讯及洞察

在澳洲生活的朋友们都知道，如果说到澳洲的连锁百货商店，除开一些中小型商店，在主要城市中从低端到高端的排列一般是：Kmart, BigW, Target, Myer, 以及最高端的David Jones。这些商场几乎都被Coles和Woolworth两家大型超市上市公司所拥有。换句话说，澳洲的大型连锁从超市到日用百货，再到衣服和高档化妆品，几乎都属于两大超市集团阵营。这样的情况一直持续到了2009年MYER集团从Coles集团中剥离出来独立上市。我本人还傻傻的认购了MYER的新股，结果很神奇的在第二周就成功破发，之后几年就再也没有回到原始价格。最终我在2年后割肉离场。并且其股价在过去10年里几乎年年在下跌，CEO也是换了一拨又一拨，但是就是不见业绩好转。

当然，今天我们不聊Myer, 主要聊的是更加高端的商场：David Jones. 这家商场有184年的历史主要销售中高端的化妆品，鞋帽箱包，以及家用电器。甚至有几十个奢侈品牌入驻。但是就是这样高端的商场，从2014年被南非的Woolwroth集团私有化买下后，到如今依然逃不过亏损，被贱卖的下场。2014年，总部位于南非的Woolworths Holdings出资21亿澳元收购了 David Jones。包含了在澳洲和新西兰的43家门店和两个配送中心。然而2014年的14亿，经过8年的苦心经营之后，在本周却以1亿澳元的价格被卖给了悉尼本地的一个管理资金只有8.1亿澳元的私募基金Anchorage Capital。和所有实体店一样，David Jones经历了2020年以来的3年疫情时期，光是在2020年3月和4月，其销售额就同比下跌了35%。而对比其他独立实体店，又因为David Jones通常租用大面积的场地和长期保持服务员工而导致固定成本远高于其他商场。但是在过去2年中，除了疫情带来的影响以外，更为致命的一个策略错误就是：其母公司南非Woolworth集团（不是澳洲Woolworth，但是也有点血缘关系）决定开设和扩建数十家David Jones食品店和在BP加油站贩售David Jones品牌的食品。之所以这么做，是因为，在南非，Woolworths控股旗下的零售集团就是以销售高档衣服，家居用品和高品质的食品杂货类为主。并且通过商场的辐射同时提供信用卡，个人财富管理等金融服务。简单来说，南非的母公司想把它们在南非和非洲的成功经验引入澳洲。这个想法是好，但是结果却截然相反。David Jones在过去2年里开设的大部分精品食品店和加油站里的中高档小店铺全部以亏损和失败告终。这也使得其财务报表上又增加了每年1500万澳元的亏损。那究竟是什么原因，导致了原本在南非和非洲地区的成功经验，无法在澳洲复制呢？难道所有的失败都归结到疫情的身上？当然不可能。同样的实体和线上连锁店，贩卖电子和家电产品的JB HiFi在疫情里就赚得盆满钵满。那到底是什么原因？我不是法官，无法盖棺定论，所以如果各位看官觉得我说错了，请高抬贵手。我个人认为，是因为消费群体的不同。南非Woolworth集团之所以可以利用高档衣服，床上用品，搭配高档食品策略可以在当地成功，是因为依靠着当地快速增长的中产阶级基础之上，这些从普通阶层上升到中产阶层后对于生活品质和品牌的要求骤然提高，而这时一家可以全方位提供中高档吃穿用的商场，就成为了当地新兴中产阶级非常愿意追随的品牌，并且也是更多还没有上升到中产阶级民众梦寐以求的品牌。而在澳洲，David Jones所面对的客户群，显然不是一回事。澳洲的大部分民众早已完成了从普通到中产的升级，因此大部分人并没有一定要在David Jones买衣服，即使是街边小店，很多也可以依靠特色完胜David Jones。因此绝大部分的消费者并没有因为去David Jones购买产品而有所谓的“虚荣感”。再加上澳洲的食品质量普遍很高，David Jones出售的糖果，水果和街边特色小店甚至超市里的并没有太大的差异。这又是和南非当地情况巨大的差别。因此就算David Jones开的食品店，也无法形成排队和抢购的风潮。

说白了，南非Woolwworth用于服务当地“新贵”的种种营销策略，无法在澳洲这个拥有者大量“老富”（Old Money）阶层的社会里套用。再加上疫情导致的流动人口和游客骤减，直接导致David Jones希望对高消费人群使用高档食品所谓的硬刚需来盈利的想法无情的破灭。其实我们从澳洲乃至全世界目前的个人消费趋势来看，大而全的商场普遍盈利能力下降。而小而精，专注某一领域的特色连锁店则可以更好的满足特定消费人群的需求。我在这里给大家测试一个简单的题：如果你是一家商场的CEO，你要选择目标消费人群年纪，你觉得是50-60岁人群在商场的消费实力强，还是年龄在20-30岁的消费能力强？毫无疑问，大多数人都会选择50-60岁人群。然而目前商业调查数据中得到的结果却显示，20-30岁人群的年均总体去商店的购买能力是所有年龄里最强的。注意，这里调查的不是买房，买车，而是一年里去商场的消费。虽然50-60岁人群拥有最多的财富，但是由于工作，家庭等原因，这类人群没有太多时间去商场。相反大学毕业到30岁之间的单身人群，是去商场最频繁的，并且按照其一人吃饱，全家不饿的生活方式，月光那是必须的。

所以目前盈利的连锁店和商场，绝大部分都是出售那些符合20-30岁年龄人群的商品，而非20年前的那些高档西服和床单店。而这类人群通常不需要高档华丽的装修风格，因此我们可以看到在那些迎合年轻人消费方式的连锁店里，很难看到大量装修元素。更多的是产品的更新换代，以及更有竞争力的价格。时代在变，主力消费人群也在改变，但是很可惜，David Jones因为单店太大，无法适应如今的年轻化，网络化的消费模式，加上澳洲巨大的人力和物流成本，这就注定了大型商场从低端搞高端，都很难盈利的原因。（BigW Target 也连年亏损）那么各位从David Jones模式失败的教训中，可以学到什么呢？欢迎大家回复邮件，提供你想聊的话题，我会尽量选择当下社会经济的热点来给大家带来一些新闻以外的点评。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Corporate actions are activities that material effect an organisation and impacts the key stakeholders including shareholders and creditors. They can affect the stock price both in good and bad ways. Corporate actions are most often determined and voted on by the board of directors of the company.

Although sometimes, shareholder will be given the chance to either vote or participate in these actions such as placements. Why are they important? Corporate actions materially affect the share price are highly important to understand.

This means that the actual value of the company or the share price will change due to one of these actions. This also means that they can be great catalysts for volatile trade opportunities Examples of Common Corporate Actions Dividends Mature companies or companies who record consistent profits may issue dividends to their ordinary shareholders. It is important to understand what a dividend is.

It is a company distributing a share of its profits to give back to investors. This dividend is paid to investors and means that once the dividend has been returned the share price must be adjusted to reflect the reduction in future cashflow. Dividends may also be issued via a reissuing of shares or a reinvestment plan.

Stock Split A stock split is when a company decides to split each of its shares by a certain ratio for example 1:5 or 1:10. The reason that companies will split stocks are usually for liquidity purposes. When a company has small number of outstanding shares it often leads to low liquidity and volatile prices due to large spreads between the bid and ask prices.

Therefore, by splitting stocks the company can improve the liquidity of its share price. The results of this action will increase liquidity but also lower the share price and volatility of the security. Reverse stock split or consolidation The process of a stock consolidation is just the reverse of a stock split.

This occurs when a company’s share price is too low or is too easily manipulated because there are too many shares available to trade. It is also important to note that most exchanges have rules that will strike out company’s trading on their exchange if the share price drops too low. Therefore, a stock consolidation may occur may have to happen out of necessity.

Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and acquisitions are probably the most complex corporate action to understand. They generally involve one company buying or taking over another company. This process can take some time and is not as generic as the other actions.

There are multiple ways in which the buying company can purchase the other company. It may involve payment of cash, debt, shares, option, or a combination of these and other financing options. Most often the company buying, will have to pay a premium to cover the goodwill from the company being acquired.

The initial bid therefore provides a valuation for the company being acquired. To further complicate matters, a bid especially an initial bid is not always the final offer which makes finding a fair value for the share price difficult and provides great opportunities for trading as the market tries to find the fair value. Rights Issuing or share placements Companies for a variety of reasons need to raise money.

They can do this by selling new shares to existing shareholders or even private institutions. This enables the company to increase its equity. At the same time this dilutes the shares outstanding which will most likely reduce the price of the company’s shares.

In addition, these placements or new issues are often prices that are already discounted to the price at the time of the placement. A company may raise capital for a variety of reasons which include, increasing cash at hand, dealing with liquidity problems, purchasing of new equipment, purchasing of another company. Share Buyback A share buyback is when a company decides to purchase its own shares from the float to reduce the number available for trade.

Companies may do this to either regain control of some of the shares or also to increase the value of their shares for its holders. Whilst it is a different mechanism it has a similar effect to a dividend. This is because as the company buys back the shares the supply reduces, and the purchasing of the shares increases the market price.

Corporate actions are an important part of the capital markets and as catalysts for price changes for shares. Therefore, traders should be aware of the different types of corporate actions and the effect they can have on the price of a company’s share price.

The US Dollar Index plummeted on Tuesday, December 13, breaking below a major support following a softer-than-expected inflation report for November. This led to investors scaling back expectations for future Federal Reserve rate increases. Since the initial drop after announcement was released, the price of the Dollar Index has recovered almost 80%.

Although this could simply be the pullback phase of a longer-term downtrend. A downtrend is an overall decrease in price, created by lower lows and lower highs which can clearly be seen on the daily time frame, marked out in the chart below. This week's CPI reading, combined with the technical analysis of the dollar index, suggests that the USD Index may continue to decline, with the next major support sitting around $102.25.

The dollar index is currently retracing and testing a resistance zone between $104.40 and $104.90.

The EUR look to be turning after an impressive run. The pair has risen by 12.57%since it hit the bottom in September. At the time the price fell to 0.9525.

This was the lowest level the EUR had reached since the year 2000. In September, Europe was facing extreme inflationary pressure and conversely the USD was rocketing towards record high levels. However, since this time the price recovered and now near the 50-week moving average.

After this great rebound it does seem as if the price is overextended and in need of a rest. As it can be seen on the weekly chart the candlesticks are showing an exhausted reverse hammer candlestick. It is categorised by a long wick and small body that has closed very near its open price.

The price is also struggling to break above the resistance level at 1.07 which doubles as the 50-week moving average. The failure to break above would likely confirm that the price is still very much trending down. This also opens a potential trading opportunity to go short.

With the price at resistance and potentially good risk reward till the next support all that is needed is a trigger for an entry. Looking at the daily chart for some ideas for an entry is useful. Here the price is currently in an upward channel.

If this channel were to breakdown, then it may indicate a breakdown of the price and an entry for the longer-term short trade. In addition, the RSI is still holding an upward trending pattern. Although it may also offer some confirmation of a break down.

The RSI is relatively overbought and if it breaks down from the trend may signal a reversal. With the Christmas holidays almost here, the volatility and liquidity may be a little lower but moving into 2023 may provide some good conditions for this trade to eventuate.

Gold rises to 6 months high as USD weakens The price of gold has risen as softer inflationary figures pushed the USD lower. The month/month CPI grew just 0.1% vs 0.3% expected, whilst the year/year figure grew by 7.1% vs 7.3% expected. Core CPI month/month rose by 0.2% vs 0.3%.

These figures sent the USD down, which provided a boost to most commodities including Gold with the market becoming more positive about a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve. With the FOMC meeting still to come later this week, and an expected 50 bps increase in the funds rate. However, anything lower or if the Fed releases a particular dovish announcement will further weaken the USD and potentially strengthen the price of Gold.

Technical Analysis The price of gold has broken out of a considerable consolidation. With recessionary pressure now seemingly trumping inflationary pressure, gold may be back in vogue as a transition of capital from riskier investments into gold pushes the price higher. Trading opportunities for gold may come from both long and short positions due to the overall ranging pattern.

Currently, the price has an area of ‘chop’ where the price is neither trending up or down. On the weekly chart, the price is testing the 50-week moving average which is a great measure of the mean of the price or the long-term average. This also coincides with the centre region of the range, which is at approximately USD $1850 per ounce, indicated by the red line on the daily chart.

Looking more closely at the daily chart, the RSI is consolidating and may breakout to the overbought zone before falling back down to a more manageable region. In addition, the 50-day moving average has swung back to in rising position. The global economic outlook still looks gloomy, particularly in relation to the effects or severity of a potential recession.

Therefore, gold may become more attractive to the market as growth continues to slow.

热门话题

疫情的影响以及美联储的一系列操作造成了2022年成为二十年来最差的股市，甚至为2023年笼罩了一层阴影。我一直都在探究热点板块，努力发掘未来的板块趋势。目前锂矿的尾巴是否还值得去抓？电极材料的布局在2023年是否能收到较理想的回报？石墨是否将持续处于供需失衡状态？这一系列问题我分析了很多遍，答案也无法用是否对错简单总结，但无论已经持仓还是正要布局，我们都应该保持海绵一样的吸纳力，不错过市场上每一个可能影响板块热点的消息。

今天我们需要分析的是前几天美国公布的消息，关于核聚变实现历史性突破可能给人类带来的变化，进而关联到金融市场可能受到的影响，或许我们就能够挖掘出潜在的未来热门板块趋势。数十年来，科学家试图开发核聚变技术，因为他们认为掌握了核聚变技术就可以使人类不再依赖化石燃料，这将大大改善环境问题，温室气体排放量将以几何数量降低，人类文明将上升一个级别。位于加州的劳伦斯-利弗莫尔国家实验室（LLNL）是美国能源部的一部分，它在上周的一份声明中说，它的一项实验"从聚变中产生的能量超过了用于引起反应的激光能量"。对此，能源部部长格兰霍姆在新闻发布会上认为这将足以载入史册。目前核电站使用核裂变产生巨大的能量，其工作原理是分裂重原子的原子核释放出能量。而核聚变则使两个轻核融合在一起，形成一个更重的核，这就是为恒星提供动力的反应，包括我们的太阳。由于恒星存在的极端热量和压力条件，氢原子融合成了氦，在这个过程中产生了巨大的能量，数十亿年来源源不断向四周散发着能量。在地球上，这一过程可以通过超强的激光器来实现。物理学家Arthur Turrell，《恒星建设者》的作者在推特上写道："控制恒星的能量来源是人类有史以来最伟大的技术挑战。"

怎样才能满足核聚变条件呢？只有将物质加热到1.5亿度左右的超高温度，聚变才有可能发生。法国原子能委员会的项目负责人Erik Lefebvre表示最重要的步骤是找到方法将这种极热的物质与任何可能将其冷却的东西隔离开来。第一种方法是通过磁约束进行核聚变。在一个巨大的反应堆中，轻氢原子（氘和氚）被加热，然后材料处于等离子体状态，这时自然密度很低，通过磁场控制，在磁铁的帮助下进行。这是目前正在法国建设的国际ITER项目将使用的方法，也是牛津附近的JET（欧洲联合环形山）使用的方法。第二种方法是惯性约束，将非常高能量的激光送入一个顶针大小的装有氢气圆筒内，这就是法国的"兆焦耳激光"（LMJ）和该领域最先进的项目——美国国家点火设施（NIF）所使用的技术。而美国加利福尼亚国家实验室正是通过第二种办法进行了历史性的实验，从而首次实现了能量的净增长。到目前为止，使用激光的实验室的目的更多的是为了证明物理原理。

我们在课本上学到过氢弹的爆炸原理是氢核聚变，但需要原子弹重核裂变进行触发，无论是磁约束还是激光触发的惯性约束，实验中都是输入能量超过产出能量的，这是首次实现正能量。这就意味着该实验让核聚变用于可控制的能源生产成为了可能。当然这还有很长的路要走，科学家估计这种项目离可以商用还需要20或30年才能完成。美国劳伦斯-利弗莫尔国家实验室主任Kim Budil在周二表示该时间可能是 几十年，但少于五十年。他表示现在我们利用激光已经实现了净能量的增加，我们需要想办法让它变得更简单。从技术上仍然需要许多改进，最基本的条件就是产生的能量必须增加，而且操作必须是每分钟可重复多次的。那么为什么这项实验引起了科学界的轰动呢？专家指出，与核裂变不同，核聚变不会有发生核事故的风险。因为核聚变是一种完全无碳的能源，产生的废物非常少，无温室气体排放，而且本质上非常安全。这使得它成为"世界能源问题的未来解决方案"。那么我们引申到投资板块来分析，氢能源以及广义上的核能，都将逐渐走进我们的视野，也是对传统核能的一次升级。截止今天，相关上市公司的代码肯定还未浮现，但板块方向已经隐约有些身影，我们需要保持关注，在心里买下一颗希望的种子。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师