市场资讯及洞察

How to use Arbitrage trading to increase profits Professionals in finance like to use hard to read and complicated language to make what they do much harder and more complicated than it sounds. However, when it comes to arbitrage, it is actually a relatively simple concept that can be used in trading, to develop an accurate system that can be used in various markets. The Law of One Price In order to understand Arbitrage trading, a trader needs to understand the law of one price.

It states that the same goods sold in different markets in conditions, free of competition and expressed in the same currency, must be sold at the same price. Although this is an economic theory, the principles follow into financial markets. This means that in an efficient market, prices for the same asset cannot be different.

In practice, this is not always the case or rather it is not always the case straight away and his is where arbitrage opportunities exist as the market tries to move the prices into one. What is an Arbitrage? An arbitrage is when the law of one price has not yet been realized.

Essentially, the market is in the process of converging the prices. The best example is that of dual listed companies. These are companies who have shares listed on multiple exchanges.

Initially the price may be different due to exchange rates, different number of shares on issue. However, the relative value for each share must be the same. Usually, they are larger companies or multinational companies.

For instance, BHP is listed on both the ASX and the London Stock Exchange. The strategy can involve selling the shares on the exchange where it is more expensive and buying them back on the cheaper exchange or the alternative and profiting the difference. Other arbitrage opportunities can exist in companies that are primarily traded on an exchange but also have an over the counter, (OTC) listing.

These OTC listings are often much more illiquid allowing for more arbitrage opportunities Additionally, the primary market will usually be the lead pricing target, whilst the OTC or secondary market will attempt to move towards that price. Merged Arbitrage This strategy involved targeting companies that are in the process of being taken over or bought out. The acquirer will need to put an offer per share in order for a take-over to occur.

This gives the market a value for the shares. Generally speaking, the price will have to move towards the offer, especially if it is accepted. In a recent example, company Tassal formally TGR.AX, announced it was being bought out by a private equity firm.

There were previous offers made at $4.67, $4.80 and $4.85 per share before the final offer came at $5.25 a share. It can be seen from the price chart that the share price did not reach $5.25 immediately. The interesting thing to note here is that even though the final and accepted offer came in at $5.25 on the day of the announcement the price only reached $5.12 still $0.13 short of the offer.

This represented an arbitrage opportunity of $0.13 for savvy traders and investors. Although the actual % gain was not very high, the relative certainty of the price target made this trade a potential big winner. Opportunities like this are not always perfect and deals may not always follow through, but a skilled trader can develop a very strong system around this premise.

Overall, arbitrage trading may seem difficult but in reality, the theory is relatively straight forward. Finding mispricing within the market and capitalising on them can take some practice but they can also offer longer and shorter terms edges when the market is not providing other sufficient trading opportunities.

As a new trader, riding the emotional ups and downs can be a very difficult task. It is human nature to feel the pain of a losing trade. The losing often outweighs the positive feeling of any winning trade.

Dealing with the emotion of trading can be an incredibly difficult task. It can cause even the best system to fail. A trading journal especially early on in a trading journey can provide important feedback and information about the effectiveness of an edge.

The reality is that early on profit and loss can be terrible measure of an individual’s trading ability which is why a journal is so essential. There are many different formats and styles of journals that can be used. Some like to base their journal around a calendar.

Others like to pick out their best and worst trade each day and analyse them intensely. In the end, it doesn’t matter what style is chosen if a consistent structure is followed. Both quantitative and qualitative measures that ca be used to measure performance.

What to include in your journal? Below is a breakdown of elements that can be analysed in the trading journal. Initial trade idea – This is the overall basis of the trade, it can be related to a technical pattern, fundamental factor such as a news or a mix of both.

Some traders call this the trade hypothesis or thesis. In its most simple form, it is the very reason a trader enters into a trade. When journaling, it is important to evaluate the strength of the idea, whether it was correct and why or why not the trade was validated or invalidated.

It is also worth noting if the idea is a common one, such as news catalysts, repeating technical patterns. This can also be elevated by understanding how different trade ideas work together to create stronger overall trade ideas. Entry – Breaking down the key elements of the trade are important aspects to a journal.

More specifically outlining whether an entry was ideal, correct and managed well. Was the entry chased or was patience shown to achieve a more ideal entry. The entry is also a part of a trade with heightened emotion.

Therefore, journaling how emotions were managed and ways to improve emotional management is an important aspect of reviewing the entry. Exit – It goes without saying that the exit is the reciprocal of the entry and just as important. Analysing whether the exit was correct at both the time and in hindsight is an important step.

By continuously analysing both entries and exits, a trader will likely see an improvement in this aspect of their trading. In addition, they will potentially remove external factors such as emotion and noise from other influences such as twitter. Sizing – Sizing is an extremely tricky area of trading to master and there are many different theories on what sizing tactic is the best for each trade.

Some traders like to increase size depending on how strong a trade set up is whilst other like to have more consistent sizing strategies regardless of the strength of a trade. When reviewing it is important to make note of whether the sizing strategy worked. Trading with too much size can affect the active management of a trade as a trader can lose sight of the trade at hand and become too concerned about the potential outsizes loss.

Trade management – Whilst all the above can all constitute some level of trade management reviewing, analysing the whole management of the trade is vital. This can include the effectiveness in taking profits or losses and how the trader has dealt with their emotions. Management of fear and greed are the two most common emotions that a trader feels.

Grading – Having some quantitative measure even though it is subjective can help classify many trades over a long period of time. Using either letters or a number ranking can be just one method. This allows for a trader to identify their best performing trades and where the strongest edge is.

This list should not be seen as exhaustive, and traders can tinker and adjust to suit their own trading strategy. Reviewing the journal. It is important to review the journal at the end of a set time whether it be weekly or monthly to see if common mistakes are occurring or a theme is emerging.

If the same mistake keeps occurring, it may act as point of emphasis for future journaling or improvement. Ultimately, using a journal can accelerate the learning curve drastically especially for new traders.

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有柴油车的朋友们最近应该和我一样不大好受，曾经更为实惠的柴油现如今竟比98汽油价格还高。Premium 98的价格在2刀每升左右，最多不超过2.1，而柴油的价格基本在2.2以上，最高将近2.4。柴油家用车相较于汽油车当然算少数，然而在我们当今的经济中，所有物品的运行都离不开柴油，柴油对于运输，农业，工业和矿业都是不可或缺的。如果其价格继续居高不下，甚至节节攀升的话，人们不仅要承担更高的出行费用，更高的暖气账单，甚至圣诞节饭桌上的火鸡价格都要涨。

澳洲的柴油完全依赖于进口，而作为出口大国之一的美国，其情况也不容乐观。10月底时有预估美国只有25天的柴油供应，当然这没有发生。最新的EIA数据显示，在截止11月18日的6周里，美国馏分油，主要为柴油，库存增加了300万桶。虽然增幅不大，但以往这个时候，随着供暖等需求的增大，库存一般呈下降趋势。这次的增加或表明高企的价格叠加上放缓的经济，柴油的需求得到了抑制。同时，也由于较高的价格刺激了炼油厂提高了馏分油的产量。这可能会给美国一个喘息的机会，但是美国的柴油库存仍处于历史低位，而且炼油厂已经开足马力，供给端没有更多的潜力了。

如果说美国作为柴油出口国还是掌握主动权的，实在不行，可以减少出口，先紧着国内。那么作为柴油进口大国的欧洲，处境就更为艰难了。欧洲的柴油进口需求占全球柴油进口贸易量的34.3%，而其中45%依赖于从俄罗斯进口。而从12月5日起，欧盟将停止对俄原油的进口；明年2月5日起，欧盟将开始对俄成品油实施禁运，这迫使欧洲不得不加入对于中东以及亚洲成品油的争夺，这也意味着海运成本的大大增加。雪上加霜的是，欧洲的罢工运动起此彼伏。本可以自给自足的法国，在10月炼油厂工人罢工导致其60%以上的炼油产能停工。这头还没缓过来，11月欧洲最大的炼油厂之一， BP的鹿特丹炼油厂又因罢工而无法重启。国际能源署也警告说柴油可能引发欧洲新一轮的能源危机。如果说欧洲毕竟还有钱可以买，那么对于其他依赖进口的第三世界国家，柴油危机就真的无解了。因为缺少资金购买柴油，南非在今年不得不频繁限电，最近已升级到5级限电政策，表示每天每户居民将停电约8小时。同时，南非国家电力公司也宣布柴油储备告罄，到明年4月1日前都无力购买柴油。其实，柴油危机的端倪早已显露。一方面是由于能源转型，西方国家本身就在逐渐削减炼油产能，这也使该行业的投资大幅减少。另一方面，过去2年的疫情压制了需求，这也使许多炼油厂关闭了部分工厂。过去三年，美洲和欧洲的炼油产能减少了240万桶每天。再加上西方对俄罗斯的大力制裁扰乱了市场，这场柴油危机才发酵。虽然原油价格已经回落，但相较于汽油，柴油价格依然顽固。11月15日，根据国际能源署的石油月报显示，10月的柴油价格较去年同期上涨了70%；而其裂解差（即与原油的价差）较去年同期上涨了425%。

明年有诸多不确定因素，包括俄乌战争，对俄制裁，疫情，欧佩克等等都会对原油以及成品油价格产生影响。如果供给端的问题无法解决，高涨的柴油价格将会分摊到整个经济，又给通胀添了把火，那么只能通过破坏需求端来解决。能引爆柴油地雷的火星很多，在投资人眼里这些火星既是风险又是机会。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jaden Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师

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12月2日，美国公布的11月非农数据大大超出市场预期。当晚美股大幅低开，但随后走势强劲，整晚都稳步缩小跌幅。数据显示，11月非农就业新增26.3万人，高于预期的20万人；9月、10月数据合计下修2.3万人。11月失业率为3.7%，持平预期；劳动参与率为62.1%，低于预期的62.3%。11月时薪环比上涨0.6%、同比上涨5.1%，均大幅高于预期。非农数据强劲的背后，加息预期变化不大，但降息预期却出现明显降温，美债也持续下跌。

我们来挖掘一下非农数据背后值得引起注意的细节。数据显示，制造业、服务业新增就业分别由3.6万人、20.1万人下滑至1.4万人、18.4万人，前者走势与制造业PMI连续回落释放的信号较为吻合，后者主要与前期铁路罢工后零售业、运输仓储业就业人数降幅扩大有关。不过，休闲酒店业、教育保健业新增就业人数分别从8万人、6万人反弹至8.2万人、8.8万人。与机构调查不同，家庭调查的11月非农就业净减少40万人，两种非农就业总数之差也从5月450万左右的正常水平缩减至268万。另一方面，自雇人士、家庭劳务者人数5月来合计减少近50万，同时从事多种职业者数量5月来净增近50万，导致机构调查重复统计、造成数据差异。由此可以看出，非农数据的可信度在降低，其核心问题还是与统计方法局限性有莫大的关系，这跟美国GDP调整统计方法后数据显得尤为好看如出一辙。

另有一个很重要的点就是在岗劳动力的工作强度明显降低。躺平之后美国就业人口的缺勤率出现明显提升，往年美国缺勤率的正常水平略低于2%，流感高峰季阶段性也就2.5%左右，而防控放松以来美国缺勤率直接突破2.5%，高峰期甚至突破5%。缺勤率的提升，导致平均工时、加班工时快速回落，人均产出效率下滑、总产出见顶回落。

那么就业后续将如何走呢？参考领先指标职位空缺数走势来看，就业阶段性走强难改回落趋势，因此失业率还是会保持一个上升趋势。考虑到就业需求快于供给变化，职位空缺数的走势一般领先于非农就业人数，算是非农数据的晴雨表。职位空缺数自3月见顶以来回落已有半年，叠加移民和后新冠时期的供给约束性，就业人数后续的修复难度或将越来越大。移民缺失导致的就业劳动力问题在澳洲也显得非常明显，也是美国接下来需要重点解决的问题。整体来看，非农就业走势将延续降温趋势。

作为影响核心通胀的关键变量，房价、薪资增速的顶点均已出现，意味着美联储大幅加升利率上限的空间有限，这一点从上周鲍威尔的讲话就体现出来了。美联储会放缓加息节奏，保持在高位利率等待通涨回落到2%的目标位置。这就影响到美国经济会不会真正出现衰退。尽管从历史上美联储大部分加息周期的结果回顾，美国经济能避免衰退的成功案例少之又少，但本次GDP的强势表现还是令市场点燃了些许希望，就算是温和衰退也变得可以接受。

从上图分析，美国前几次出现经济衰退的关键转折点即将出现，具体的时间点或在2023年一季度出现，本人估计很大概率将由2月份上市公司财报潮触发，3月美联储议息会议期间得到强化。

EPS的下调空间依旧有上图那样的较大空间，因此股市下跌的空间依旧较大。尽管这是看空派的看法，但度过圣诞和元旦，用一月作为缓冲后，二月的确是理智分析来看股市出现大跌的关键时间点。美国历史上衰退开始后股市继续下跌幅度和时间从下表可以参阅。

我们由非农看到就业数据背后深层次的问题，推测了就业数据后续走势，进而推算出美国出现经济衰退的较大可能性，而后影响到大家十分关注的美股走向，以及具体转折时间点。这也是分析近期行情过度到明年上半年转折行情的理论依据，诸位还需引起重视。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

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大家都知道，世界杯每四年就会举行一届。而今年2022年的世界杯在卡塔尔举行。这次卡塔尔世界杯不知道是不是最好的世界杯，但是一定是最“壕”的世界杯。本届卡塔尔世界杯花费超过2200亿美元，是上届俄罗斯世界杯花费的近20倍，也是历届世界杯花费加起来的五倍之多。和俄罗斯世界杯一样，卡塔尔的大部分花费都在于基础设施的建设，其中还包括但不仅限于体育场，公路和住宿等的花费。在 2017 年，卡塔尔财政部长表示，该国每周在资本项目上花费 5 亿美元。

卡塔尔为何那么有钱呢？原因很简单，就是其丰富的石油和天然气资源所带来的巨大财富和利益。虽然世界上大部分地区都在努力应对经济衰退和通货膨胀，但卡塔尔和其他海湾阿拉伯国家的能源生产国正在从高能源价格中获益。国际货币基金组织预计卡塔尔经济今年将增长约 3.4%。从历年来看，在世界杯效应的推动下，其周边的产品，赞助商等等都得到了巨大收益。比如在今年，EA发布最新季度的财报，FIFA系列玩家大增收入达到17.7亿美元。国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺在国际足联成员联合会议上也公布了本次世界杯有着75亿美元的收入，而这也是国际足联在2018年俄罗斯世界杯周期，获得64.2亿美元的破纪录营收后，以超10亿的增额再破新高。相同的，在世界杯等重大赛事下，也会衍生出一系列的投资机会。其中，今年最大的投资机会就是世界杯受益股-赞助商和合作伙伴股票。给大家提前透个底，今年赞助商和合作伙伴的股票都有不同程度的上涨，那么具体情况如何，我将会挑几个有代表性的来分析一下。

首先就是今年的合作伙伴阿迪达斯。这家德国运动服装巨头与世界足球管理机构的合作伙伴关系可以追溯到50多年前。自1970年以来，阿迪达斯一直是国际足联世界杯的官方比赛用球供应商，也是自那年起成为合作伙伴，并为国际足联所有附属赛事的所有官员、裁判、球员陪同人员、球队工作人员和志愿者提供制服，阿迪达斯也赞助了这些赛事。双方于 2013 年 11 月宣布了这一历史性协议的最后一次延期，协议授予阿迪达斯官方合作伙伴、供应商和被许可方在 2030 年之前所有 FIFA 赛事的权利。而在今年11月份起，阿迪达斯的股价开始了一路猛涨，股价从93上涨至136，上涨的幅度达到了惊人的46%。其他运动品牌的股价也被推动上涨，比如阿迪达斯的老对手Nike此次也是上涨了21%。

然而，纵观全局来说，阿迪达斯今年的股价整体一直处于颓势，在近一年股价下跌了近60%。那么阿迪达斯今年到底发生了什么？首先就是战争造成的影响，俄乌战争后，欧洲出现能源危机，能源价格飙升。而阿迪达斯作为德国的品牌，运营成本和生产成本飙升。造成了其利润骤降。其次就是收到美国加息，美元升值的影响。欧元今年跌了很惨，在不涨价的情况下，出口价格实际上是变相降价了10%左右。进一步对其利润造成打击。最后就是作为阿迪达斯最大客户之一的中国，在中国的销量不佳，利润进一步下降。综合因素之下，不难理解其股价为何跌得如此之快。因此，对于阿迪达斯目前状况来说，世界杯的热度支持其股价进行了一波巨大的反弹，但是如果根本问题无法解决，其股价仅仅只是一波反弹，并不会开始反转。

其次就是百威啤酒。虽然本次世界杯，普通球迷无法在运动馆里面喝啤酒，但是不影响它股价的上涨。本次世界杯期间股价50.08-54.77，上升幅度9.37%。毕竟，啤酒配足球那可是标配。不仅仅只是百威，所有的啤酒板块股票均有不同程度的上涨，青岛啤酒上涨12.3%，科罗娜上涨5.7%，华润啤酒上涨45.87%。接下来是中国企业的赞助商合作伙伴：万达，蒙牛，海信。环球数据(GlobalData)提供的数据显示，中国企业为卡塔尔世界杯投入了13.95亿美元，超过了美国企业投入的11亿美元。反应到股价上来说，因为周边和万达开创的电影院观球等等活动，万达影视上涨了15.97%，海信为其品牌提供大幅折扣之后，销量激增，世界杯期间股价上涨了24.44%。蒙牛也在这次狠狠地蹭了一波热度，股价上涨了25.88%。最后综合来看，这10家赞助合作伙伴的股票在这个期间平均有上涨17.37%。

这也给了我们一个思路，重大赛事之际，其周边品牌，赞助商，概念股都有很大的上升潜力。那么在下届世界杯已经确定的合作伙伴和赞助商是阿迪达斯，可口可乐，万达还有VISA，大家可以关注。而明年2023年将会有卡塔尔亚洲杯足球比赛，亚运会等赛事。2024会有巴黎奥运会，而作为和世界杯同级别的顶级赛事，其周边的收益股大家也可以开始关注，提前做好布局。投资在很大程度上也是一个认知的投资。在多角度分析，多方面交流的情况下，大家可以更快地提高各自的认知。因此，欢迎投资者朋友们来和我们进行投资交流分析，一起抓住下一个机遇。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师

The world’s leading customer relationship management company Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) announced its latest financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $7.84 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $7.827 billion expected.

EPS reported at $1.40 per share vs. $1.217 per share estimate. ''We had a solid quarter with revenue of $7.84 billion, up 14% year-over-year or 19% growth in constant currency, and record operating margin,'' Marc Benioff, Chair & Co-CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We’re grateful to our customers for their commitment, especially as we help them succeed in this challenging environment. There’s never been a more important time for our customers to connect with their customers in a whole new way,'' Benioff added. Salesforce also announced a departure of company Co-CEO, Bret Taylor. ''I am grateful for six fantastic years at Salesforce,'' Taylor said in a statement on the company's website. ''Marc was my mentor well before I joined Salesforce and the opportunity to partner with him to lead the most important software company in the world is career-defining.

After a lot of reflection, I've decided to return to my entrepreneurial roots. Salesforce has never been more relevant to customers, and with its best-in-class management team and the company executing on all cylinders, now is the right time for me to step away,'' Taylor concluded. Taylor is set to leave his position on January 31, 2023.

The stock was down by around 9% on Thursday, trading at $144.33. Stock performance 1 Month: -1.86% 3 Month: -6.46% Year-to-date: -43.49% 1 Year: -45.02% Salesforce price targets Jefferies: $230 B of A Securities: $200 Canaccord Genuity: $180 Truist Securities: $210 Cowen & Co.: $195 Wedbush: $200 Deutsche Bank: $200 Barclays: $180 Morgan Stanley: $250 BMO Capital: $172 JP Morgan: $200 Salesforce Inc. is the 78 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $143.57 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap