市场资讯及洞察

Bitcoin rockets powerful spike Bitcoin’s price has seemingly spiked out of nowhere in what has been in one of its strongest moves in days. With Bitcoin’s price suffering from sector volatility, it and most other cryptocurrencies has seen an aggressive sell off. This current rise in price is threatening to test the upper resistance point of the price range.

Synopsis of the price action The price of Bitcoin had been building and consolidating towards the base of its range before today’s sharp pump in price. After testing the bottom twice and failing, the price made its way back to the top. The jump in price seems to have been supported by a potential ‘Short Squeeze’.

A short squeeze occurs when large short positions attempt to close their positions at the same time. This drives the price of the asset higher forcing more shorts to close and creating a snowball effect. As stop losses become triggered the price receives a further boost.

This means that a short squeeze generally results in higher volume and higher volatility then other momentum breaks outs. As it can be seen in the chart below the price moved almost 400 dollars in 15 minutes which is a super powerful jump. The short-term target of $17,100 was touched, which is the top end of the range.

The resistance level has proven once again to be too strong and therefore may require a retest and larger volume to break. However, if it can break through the next target becomes $18,100 which provides a great potential risk/reward. With the fallout from FTX and other Cryptocurrency entities still facing bankruptcy and severe public distrust it will likely take some extremely positive news for the price to break out of the long-term range.

Until then it would be wise to be weary of breakouts.

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澳洲，作为目前地球上少数依然维持每年大量移民政策的发达国家，长期以来一直以其多元文化和多民族融合而自居。在很长一段时间里，各种方式进入澳洲的移民在政治、经济、社会、文化上对澳洲的影响。不但每个城市都有希腊，意大利，亚洲社区，同时每年澳洲也会庆祝来自不同国家和背景社区的节日，从传统西方的圣诞到东方的春节，排灯节，澳洲社会对于不同文化的包容和接受程度可以说比古板的欧洲要不知好多少。当然这背后不乏其历史原因：众所周知，澳洲从被英国航海船队发现的第一天开始，就是一个移民国家。除了少量本地的原住民以外，澳洲几乎96%以上的人口，其祖上三代以上，都是来自海外。只是来澳洲的时间不同而已。

而澳洲由于其自身人口太少，因此如果按照自然出生率，那要登上几百年才能把海岸线的城市扩大。因此为了满足本身城市扩张，土地开垦，以及商业和经济发展需求，澳洲每年都会“进口”大量的移民，从带钱来的商业移民，到带技术来的独立技术移民，或者临时来救急的打工签证者，又或者是人道主义的灾民人群。各种新增的人口，快速的帮助澳洲的城市在发展和扩大。但是，情况在过去2年发生了重大的变化。根据澳洲国立大学也就是ANU在今年完成的调查问卷显示，有高达72%的受访者认为澳洲不需要更多人口。如果我们换种直接一点的说法，认为不需要的意思，就是反对增加更多的移民。另一家媒体，悉尼晨报的调查结果也差不多，有超过70%的受访者认为澳洲不需要增加移民配额了。（当然，这个结果在悉尼出现毫不例外）首先，我本人作为澳洲第一代移民，更作为从经济类专业毕业，从事金融领域工作的专业人员，我清楚地明白移民对于澳洲来说的重要性。每一个非难民类的新增移民，不论是长期移民，还是短期学生或者工作签证者，都可以给澳洲经济带来每年至少5万澳元的新增GDP.如果是商业移民，那这个效应还会叠加。而且这5万还只是按照消费支出来计算。如果我们把消费支出在经济链中循环一圈，那产生的杠杆作用就是5-10倍。也就是每给人花出去5万澳元，可以带来整个上下产业链25万-50万的产销综合收入。所以从经济角度来看，每个生活在澳洲，消费在澳洲的人，都对于澳洲的经济产生了小小的贡献。这个贡献随着人数的增加而不断加大。最终帮助澳洲各大城市有了如今众多的高楼大厦。

但是，既然大部分移民可以给澳洲带来这么多的好处，为什么现在大部分澳洲当地居民，甚至包括很多之前的移民还会反对新增移民呢？这让我就感觉是来一个城市落脚10年的会看不起刚来的新人那种电视剧情。如果用一句话来总结就是：经济账很漂亮，民生帐很难看。也就是说如果站在政府决策者，经济学角度来看，那新增移民可以带来无数的经济利益。但是如果从普通民众的生活影响来看，那些经济利益他们没有享受到，但是大量移民带来的生活改变却大都是负面的：出门越来越堵车，交通情况恶化，医院人满为患，学校人满为患，申请工作出现大量面试竞争者，房价上涨。要是这么多的事都发生在一个人身上，而且还是短短几年内发生的改变，那换谁都受不了。那有没有办法可以既让移民来，增加经济，又避免社会问题呢？答案是：不可能。其实澳洲也尝试了不同的政策来按需分配移民：例如，发达地区悉尼墨尔本的移民难度很高，而如果换成人口少的城市政策上就会有很大的优惠。又例如通过引导学习社会紧缺职位的学科来弥补就业，而不是增加已经饱和行业的竞争。然而。。。事实却很打脸：大部分澳洲偏僻地区待满移民要求时间的人都会立即，马上全家搬去主要的首府城市，也就是政策上的人口倾斜并不能维持很久，最终大部分人口依然流入了大城市。而同时那些当初为了移民而学习某些特定专业的人群往往在拿到绿卡之后也不会从事这个职业，而转而换去潜在可以获得更多收入的行业。而这些大城市的基础设施建设的速度远远跟不上人口增长的速度，而且应该是永远不会跟上的。更为重要的一点是：原本如果没有疫情，那澳洲政府完全可以按照2019年的做法，为了迎合选民的民意，继续收紧非商业移民类的移民配额，换句话说就是，你带钱，我欢迎。你想留下来工作，基本免谈。但是，疫情来了。疫情来的结果就是，大量的非常住人口流失。因为澳洲封城了，所以大量工作签证人士在那时找不到工作，学生无法上课，直接导致几十万人选择离境。然后呢？没有然后，2022年，澳洲全部放开之后，这几十万人回来的只有几万人。整整少了几十万的劳动力。而且大量集中在中心城市。这就导致了从基础的餐厅服务员，外卖员，机场劳动力，到专业的设计，甚至IT人士的全面空缺。而且澳洲经济要避免陷入衰退最后一个法宝就是“通过把牙膏口扩大的办法来提高牙膏年销量” 换而言之就是增加移民人数，来直接增加移民每年给经济带来的消费力叠加。

从2019年收紧移民配额，到2020，2021的几乎冻结移民配额，再到2022年的全面放开和增加移民配额。我感觉这移民在澳洲政府这里就像是个夜壶：需要的时候拿来用，不需要时踢的远远的。还是验证了那句话：政治为经济服务。当然，对待移民政策一日三变的态度不仅仅是澳洲，加拿大和新西兰也一样发生。毕竟对于任何一个移民国家来说，需要在经济和民生还有选票之间找到平衡点。但是即使是如今面对明年更加严峻形势时，我对于澳洲的信心依然远超于欧美，这背后的最大原因也是因为澳洲有着可以随意调节人数的移民法宝。对于过去1，2年刚毕业和未来马上要毕业的朋友们来说，未来几年澳洲的移民政策都会比较宽松，千万不要错过这个时间点。因为一旦欧美经济有所起色了，澳洲将会重新踢开夜壶的。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Not even one week after crypto exchange FTX officially filed for bankruptcy another Cryptocurrency entity has felt the wrath and submitted its own Chapter 11. The spread and contagion effect from FTX was always a concern and now cryptocurrency lender BlockFi has fallen. BlockFi had been struggling even prior to the FTX collapse.

In fact, the company was bailed out with credit support form FTX of which the company could access up to USD 400 million. BlockFi is not a traditional exchange, rather a lender in which it used cryptocurrency assets as collateral for the loans. As the value of the crypto assets has declined the value of the company’s collateral became lower and lower and the company was unable to cover its liabilities.

Once the FTX crisis broke out, the support the credit offered by FTX was of course no longer available leading to a liquidity crisis. The bankruptcy filing outlined that the company currently has 256.9 million dollars of cash on hand which it says will provide enough liquidity in the short term to keep it operational until a restructuring can be done. The company owes approximately 100,000 creditors and the top creditor is the SEC is number which is owed 100 million dollars to settle charges it has in relation to one of its products that it offered.

The company has halted withdrawals from its platform and acknowledged the significant exposure it has to FTX. Will BlockFi end up like FTX? The manager of the financial group that advising BlockFi has made it clear that the situations Is not the same as FTX.

This is because they believe that the management teams of BlockFi are experienced, competent, and responsible as opposed to the leadership at FTX. There have been to date, “No failure of corporate controls and the company’s financial statements have shown to be trustworthy”. The difference in management and leadership does represent a potential safe exit for BlockFi and perhaps a lower level of negative impact on the crypto sector.

Ultimately, the situation surrounding BlockFi just highlights how precarious the whole FTX crisis is and the potential for other firms to be caught up in the fiasco. With such an interconnected market other exchanges and entities need to stay vigilant and aware of their exposure to the falling value of their assets.

The Chinese e-commerce platform Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) announced its unaudited Q3 financial results on Monday. The company beat revenue estimates for the quarter, but fell short of earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $4.991 billion (an increase of 65% year-over-year) vs. $4.315 billion estimate.

EPS at $0.302 per share vs. analyst estimate of $0.673 per share. ''We continued to deepen our value creation in the third quarter,'' Lei Chen, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We will increase our R&D investment to further enhance the supply chain efficiency and agricultural digital inclusion,'' Chen added. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price. Shares of Pinduoduo were up by around 14% on Monday, trading $74.97 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +36.93% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +78% 1 year: +34% Pinduoduo price targets Citigroup: $79 Barclays: $70 B of A Securities: $89 HSBC: $93 JP Morgan: $23 DBS Bank: $96 Macquarie: $104 Pinduoduo is the 136 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $94.92 billion. You can trade Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pinduoduo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Phillip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has issued an apology to the Australian public in his most recent statement. Lowe specifically apologised for providing guidance in 2020 and 2021 that the official cash would only rise in 2024. Instead, rate rises began earlier this year and rises have occurred in 7 straight months.

During that time many Australians took out home with the understanding of frozen rates at least until 2024. With inflation set to worsen and rise beyond 8% by the end of the year and the 30-day Interbank Cash rate futures pointing to a maximum cash rate of 3.865% by October next year it is not expected to get easier for Australian households. Furthermore, with the cost of living increasing, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Australians to afford their mortgages.

The apology from Lowe, whilst sincere does little to alleviate the short-term pain that will be felt by many families who have taken out home loans in the prior 12-18 months. The importance of the statements made by Lowe today are that the RBA will now adjust its messaging to the public to regain trust. Lowe attempted to justify the communication strategy at the time by outlining the exceptionality of the Pandemic and the circumstances that it brought, stating that, “It was dire times, and we decided that we would do everything we could.” Currently, the Australian dollar is $0.66 after bottoming at $0.62. as the USD has weakened and the Federals Reserve has become more open to lowering rates the AUD has recovered and regained some momentum.

The question remains, can the RBA build up trust with the public as it pushes forward in its fight against inflation or has faith in the Country’s central bank been diminished.

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​上周美股表现平稳，道指继续上行了1.78%，纳指比较乏力仅上涨0.72%，标普则中规中矩涨了1.53%。澳股指数则更接近标普走势，上涨了1.51%。板块上下半年来的反弹热点原材料和能源近期上涨无力，特别是新能源锂电池相关的股票，这一点从特斯拉低迷的股价就可以看出来。继美国能源部补助整个锂电池产业链企业后，短期内大规模的股价上涨到了阶段性顶部，因此在中国碳酸锂价格出现小幅回落后各大锂矿商股价下跌明显，但目前供需问题依旧得不到解决，相信回调也是短暂的，2023年锂矿的牛尾巴依旧值得期待。

新的一周重磅消息蜂拥而至，足以左右美国12月股市走向，其核心问题还是对于美国通涨状况的直接预判。周二美联储官员们陆续会发表讲话，这和上周公布的会议纪要有很大不同，因为会议纪要是加息是严谨探讨的记录概要，由于之前CPI回落超过预期加上更主要的核心CPI首次回落，市场从会议纪要中看到了些许鸽派的信号，这也是美联储真实的心理状态。但周二以及周四的官员表态，从布拉德到鲍威尔，无一例外是来强硬表达鹰派立场的，这是美联储的职责，也是美联储的传统。从之前加息周期中为防止市场过热的经验来看，美联储不到通涨确定性可控的情况下，是不会贸然松口的。毕竟通涨还在7.7%的高位，离2%的目标位置相距甚远，市场热度取决于心态，因此从舆论上是必须压制住过早的乐观情绪的。

周三美国将连续公布ADP就业人数，本次预测值又仅有20.3万，远低于前值23.9万，小非农的数据每每都能作为周五大非农数据的前瞻。同样周五的非农数据预估也是仅20万，远远低于前值26.1万，这两个数据很可能是要远高于预期的，因此对股市很大可能是离空的。除去就业数据，周五和非农同时公布的失业率却显得十分合理，上月失业率3.7%超过了预期值，本次预期提高到了3.8%，该数据也是周五最后决定后期美股走向的重磅数据，如果美联储控制了通涨却让失业率失控了，也是严重失职的表现。因此一旦失业率继续上升，美联储将不得不减缓加息节奏，并且对即将上调的加息上限也有很大的影响。

周三紧跟着小非农出炉的，还有美国三季度年化GDP，这将直接指引美元的走势，也是衡量美国经济是否已经进入衰退的关键。预测值增长2.8%超过了前值2.6%，但我们不能忘了上次的2.6%正值是出乎意料的，有很多声音表示是因为计算方式的改变导致数据那么好看。美国再倒推到前两次都是负值，甚至当时已经符合了经济学定义上的经济衰退：连续两季度GDP负值。另外我们从2年期国债收益率和10年期收益率倒挂破纪录的75个点也值得去担心经济衰退或将不可避免。一般以3个月和10年国债收益率倒挂去预判经济衰退，而美国已经进入倒挂状态许久了。周四晚上美国即将公布10月PCE物价指数以及核心PCE物价指数，这也是预测之后公布CPI能否延续大幅回落和核心CPI继续降低的重要前瞻指标。10月PCE物价指数预测值6%，低于前值6.2%达到0.2个百分点，而核心PCE仅预测回落0.1个百分点至5%。无论是否超预期降低，只要两者都有所回落，也将是对股市较大的利好，因为数据公布后几个小时，鲍威尔就要上台发言，其言论力度很大程度上会左右股市走向，也将是市场推测美联储后期动向的关键。

综合上述信息，我深感本周消息对股市影响之大，足以改变未来几个月直到加息达到上限前的市场走势。从个人的一般性预测来看，PCE和核心PCE基本能够符合预期甚至好于预期；GDP有一定的风险，达到2.8%的数据有一些不确定性；ADP和大非农基本不会符合预期，数据大概率会高于预期值较多的比例；而失业率预测值3.8%也变得有较大不确定性。因此本周股市的走向必将变得十分动荡，不仅震幅会远大过上周，方向也会变得扑朔迷离。有大行情就有大机会，如何去把握行情大家就需要做功课了，随着消息的不断出炉，短线顺势小波段机会将非常多，中线单子则不适合盲目入场，控制好整体仓位会显得越发重要。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师