市场资讯及洞察
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摘要
IEA 最新月报显示,全球石油需求增速放缓但仍具韧性。尽管库存持续回升,但 OECD 库存整体仍低于五年均值,市场对供应中断高度敏感。OPEC、IEA、EIA 均上调非 OPEC 供应,未来可能出现“松中带紧”的供需结构。原油价格在供应宽松预期与地缘扰动之间反复震荡,波动率下降但敏感度上升。油市表现也可能通过风险偏好外溢至能源板块、商品货币及相关市场。
一、全球原油供需前景:IEA 月报核心要点
国际能源署(IEA)最新原油月报显示,全球石油需求虽较去年降温,但整体依旧保持韧性 [1]。先进经济体消费表现好于预期,有效抵消部分新兴市场的疲弱需求。IEA 预计 2025–2026 年全球石油需求将保持温和增长。然而在供应方面,如果 OPEC+ 维持当前产量政策且需求不出现明显下滑,全球石油市场未来数个季度可能重新进入“边际紧平衡”状态。IEA 同时指出,高油价、全球经济放缓、电动车渗透等因素正在逐步压制需求增速,使油市呈现出“短期紧平衡、长期温和宽松”的结构。
二、多机构观点对比:OPEC、EIA 与 OECD 数据
三大机构对于未来市场平衡的看法存在显著差异,这主要源于对非 OPEC+ 供应增长和需求韧性的不同假设。总体来看,市场普遍认同未来供应将更加充裕,但对于过剩的规模和时间点存在分歧。

图 3:三大机构对 2025-2026 年需求与供应增长的预测对比,显示供应增长普遍超过需求增长,预示市场将进入供应过剩周期。
OPEC 的观点相对乐观。OPEC 预计 2025 年全球石油需求将增长约 130 万桶/日,2026 年略高至 140 万桶/日 [2]。与此同时,OPEC 在最新报告中连续上调非 OPEC 供给预期,并首次将 2026 年市场从“短缺”调整为“小幅过剩”,反映其判断未来供应增长可能快于需求。
EIA 的判断更偏向供应充裕。EIA 上调了美国页岩油产量预测,指出 2025 年美国原油产量将创历史新高。同时,全球供应预期被上调至日均 1.06 亿桶,高于全球消费的 1.041 亿桶,意味着未来库存可能持续累积 [3]。EIA 预期 2025–2026 年库存增加将对油价形成中期压力。
OECD 库存虽然持续回升,但仍低于五年均值。IEA 数据显示,今年全球观测库存前八个月净增约 2 亿桶,但 OECD 商业库存仍比五年均值低约 6700 万桶。整体来看,库存虽然恢复,但仍处历史偏低区间,使油市对供应中断的敏感度依旧很高。

图 1:OECD 商业原油库存近 5 年对比最新水平,显示库存虽有回升但仍低于五年均值。
三、原油价格走势:WTI 与 Brent 如何消化预期
2023 年下半年,布伦特因供应紧张和地缘冲突预期一度突破每桶 90 美元。然而进入 2024–2025 年,随着供应回升和库存恢复,油价整体震荡下移。近期价格承压主要来自供应过剩预期强化以及美国库存意外上升。

图 2:WTI 与 Brent 价格从 2025 年初的高位回落,近期在 60–70 美元区间震荡。
尽管地缘事件偶尔推升价格,但反弹难以持续,因为供应宽松的结构性预期迅速重新主导市场。WTI 与 Brent 的期限结构一度出现小幅 Contango,显示短期供应充裕压制近端价格,而远月因长期需求预期而保持相对坚挺。整体来看,油市呈现低波动、弱趋势但对消息高度敏感的特征。
四、驱动油市的关键变量:地缘政治与供应端不确定性
运输通道风险仍是油市最大的潜在冲击点之一。全球三分之一海运原油经过霍尔木兹海峡,一旦受阻便可能引发油价剧烈波动。衍生品定价显示断供概率虽低,但属于典型的“低概率、高冲击”事件。
OPEC+ 的政策滞后性也带来结构性波动。减产会压低库存、推高价格,但高油价又刺激非 OPEC 增产,使市场重新宽松。美国页岩油增速放缓进一步加剧供应端的不确定性,削弱其作为“摇摆产能”的角色。此外,俄罗斯、伊朗等国因制裁和冲突导致出口波动,更加剧油市敏感性。
五、油市变化的外溢影响
能源板块通常与油价同方向变动,但反应速度较油价更平缓。油价对风险偏好的溢出效应也容易影响澳元等商品货币。大宗商品价格上行往往提升商品出口国的贸易条件与风险情绪,而价格下跌则可能压制相关货币表现。
六、原油市场风险提示
- 数据发布风险: EIA 每周库存、IEA 与 OPEC 月报可能导致短线波动。
- 地缘政治风险: 产油区冲突、海运通道中断、制裁变化均可能影响供需平衡。
- 宏观风险: 利率政策、美元走势及全球经济增速变化都可能改变需求前景。
结语
IEA 最新展望显示,全球油市进入“边际紧平衡”阶段:库存修复但仍偏低,供应端不确定性大于需求端。在这种结构性环境下,油市会对政策、地缘事件与供给变化表现出高度敏感。理解供需框架、关注库存趋势与识别关键风险,将是未来判断油市走向的关键。
参考资料
[1] IEA (International Energy Agency). (2025, October). Oil Market Report - October 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2025
[2] OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). (2025, November). Monthly Oil Market Report. https://publications.opec.org/momr
[3] EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). (2025, November). Short-Term Energy Outlook. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/


Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest online travel company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $2.884 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.852 billion expected.
EPS at $1.79 per share (up by 46% year-over-year) vs. $1.485 per share estimate. ''Q3 was our biggest and most profitable quarter ever despite geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds,'' Airbnb wrote in a letter to shareholders. ''In Q3 2022, we had nearly 100 million Nights and Experiences Booked, up 25 percent year-over-year, and $15.6 billion in Gross Booking Value, up 31 percent year-over-year (or 40% ex-FX). Revenue grew 29 percent year-over-year (or 36% ex-FX) to $2.9 billion—our highest quarter ever.'' ''We also had our most profitable quarter with net income of $1.2 billion, up 46 percent year-over-year, representing a 42 percent net income margin. Free cash flow of $960 million increased more than 80 percent from a year ago.
And, over the last twelve months, we generated $3.3 billion in FCF, representing a FCF margin of more than 40 percent. ''Our Q3 results demonstrate that Airbnb continues to drive growth and profitability at scale. And regardless of continued macro uncertainties, we believe we’re well positioned for the road ahead.'' The company expects revenue of between $1.80 billion to $1.88 billion in Q4, which represent growth of between 17% and 23% year-over-year. Shares of Airbnb were trading lower on Wednesday, despite beating Q3 estimates due to future outlook.
The stock was down by around 10% at $97.80 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -12.18% 3 months: -14.67% Year-to-date: -41.05% 1 year: -43.23% Airbnb price targets Morgan Stanley: $110 Mizuho: $125 Baird: $120 UBS: $112 Credit Suisse: $154 Goldman Sachs: $98 Piper Sandler: $110 Keybanc: $142 Jefferies: $138 Airbnb Inc. is the 208 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $63.27 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


Shares of Pfizer rise as Q3 earnings beat estimates Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) reported its latest financial results for the third quarter before the opening bell on Tuesday in the US. The US pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $22.638 billion (down 6% year-over-year) vs. $21.072 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.78 per share vs. $1.387 per share estimate.
David Denton, CFO of Pfizer commented on the results: ''Third-quarter results demonstrated commercial strength across many areas of our business but was somewhat obscured by the incredibly strong performance in the prior year. We saw strong operational performance this quarter from key brands such as Paxlovid and Eliquis, particularly in the U.S., as well as the continued impressive launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in the U.S. In addition, we continue to make progress toward our goal of adding at least $25 billion in risk adjusted 2030 revenues to Pfizer’s portfolio through business development.
Since we last reported earnings, we completed the acquisitions of Biohaven and Global Blood Therapeutics, each of which bring significant scientific breakthroughs to Pfizer and which present opportunities where we believe we can add great value.'' ''I look forward to continuing to execute on Pfizer’s strategies to deliver breakthroughs to patients and value to shareholders,'' Denton concluded. The stock was up by around 3% on Tuesday, trading at $47.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: -3.50% Year-to-date: -18.80% 1 year: +5.50% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley: $50 Barclays: $44 SVB Leerink: $48 Wells Fargo: $55 Citigroup: $57 B of A Securities: $70 Pfizer is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $269.29 billion.
You can trade Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for October on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,059 cars last month – up by 174.3% year-over-year. The deliveries in October consisted of: 5,979 premium smart electric SUV’s 4,080 premium smart electric sedans Production and deliveries were impacted by supply chain issues and other constraints caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in certain parts of China, according to the company.
NIO has delivered a total of 259,563 electric vehicles as of October 31, 2022. The stock made some gains on Tuesday, up by around 2% at $9.93 a share. Shares of NIO have plummeted by over 75% in the past year.
Stock performance 1 month: -40.68% 3 month: -50.82% Year-to-date: -68.67% 1 year: -75.97% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 NIO is the 22 nd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $16.56 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TardingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) announced Q3 earnings results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The world’s largest aerospace company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations at $15.956 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $17.911 billion estimate. The company reported a loss per share of -$6.18 per share vs. $0.132 earnings per share expected. "We continue to make important strides in our turnaround and remain focused on our performance," Dave Calhoun, Boeing President, and CEO said in a press release following the announcement. "We generated strong cash in the quarter and are on a solid path to achieving positive free cash flow for 2022.
At the same time, revenue and earnings were significantly impacted by losses on our fixed-price defense development programs. We're squarely focused on maturing these programs, mitigating risks and delivering for our customers and their important missions. We remain in a challenging environment and have more work ahead to drive stability, improve our performance and ensure we're consistently delivering on our commitments.
Despite the challenges, I'm proud of our team and the progress we've made to strengthen our company," Calhoun concluded. Shares of Boeing took a hit on after the announcement of the latest results. The stock was down by around 3% at $140.85 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +6.50% 3 months: -8.95% Year-to-date: -29.41% 1 year: -31.21% Boeing price targets Credit Suisse: $98 Morgan Stanley: $233 Wells Fargo: $210 Benchmark: $200 RBC Capital: $200 JP Morgan: $188 Citigroup: $209 Boeing is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $83.94 billion. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The ASX200 has seen some positive price action in recent weeks as the Australian equities market has benefited from relatively weaker inflation then much of the rest of the world. With the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) only increasing interest rates by 25 bps at each of its last two meeting, the country’s central bank has seemingly chosen that inflation is perhaps the lessor of two evils against the potential of a recession. On the other hand, with expected inflation to increase to 8%, the RBA may be hoping for a softer landing and slower move to control inflation.
In response to the two most recent cash rate changes, the ASX200 has been the beneficiary with the index testing its two-month high. On the weekly chart, the index has so far bounced off its long-term support zone and its 200-week moving average. This may indicate that the index has ‘bottomed’ at least in the short term.
The price is also showing signs of a potential double bottom reversal pattern, with the two bottoms being at approximately 6500 points. If the price can break through the neckline and confirm itself as a double bottom it may accelerate through and test the all-time high resistance at 7617. On the daily chart the index shows some further encouraging signs of a reversal or breakout.
The index has broken out of the down channel in the last two days and has reclaimed both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. In addition, the 50-day moving average is beginning to kick up, which indicates some short-term bullish sentiment. It is important to remember that there may still be some headwinds with inflation and recessionary pressures still dictating much of the short-term price action, pushing higher may not be an easy feat.


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