市场资讯及洞察

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澳洲时间10月13日晚上23:30分，即将公布美国最新一期也就是9月的CPI数据，经历了这么长时间的加息周期，大家一定都知道CPI的重要性。CPI会直接影响到美联储的加息决策，以至于影响到美元，美股，以及黄金白银等大宗商品的走势。那么，在数据公布之前，我们就再来分析一下，此次CPI数据的趋势。

上图是从2021年8月至2022年8月间，CPI与核心CPI的走势，不难看出，从CPI在2022年6月达到最高的9.1%水平之后，出现了缓慢的下降，目前仍然在8%之上，并且从原油的价格走势来看，CPI下降的主要原因要归功于原油价格的回落。但是反观红色的这条核心CPI的曲线，很明显的，从今年6月之后，核心CPI不降反升，这就说明，在出去了食品和能源之后，通胀是在继续走高的，并没有随着原油的价格下降而降低。这是一个非常不好的信号，就说明，通胀已经渗透到了经济的其他领域，想要降低通胀，就不是打压油价这么简单了。

同样，我们来看这一份来自美国劳工统计局的数据，服务业减去能源之后的成本，目前在急速攀升，相较于1年前，上涨了6.1%，并且，这个趋势还在快速上升。从CPI这个角度来看，美联储没有放松的机会，药不能停，还要继续维持加息的状态才有可能达到打击通胀的目标。美联储加息容易，一般的经济可受不了这么折腾，上面分析的通胀的形式非常严峻，是需要继续大力度加息的，但是这一剂猛药是否可行，还要看美国的经济是否能够撑的住。关于这一点，美联储已经给市场打好了预防针，告诉市场有可能会出现短期的阵痛。但是有什么数据可以参考呢，我们就要看就业数据了。

这两个图标也来源于美国劳工统计局，表一是有关失业率，表二是关于美国的非农业就业人口的数据。我们先看失业率，在2020年3月之前，也就是疫情发生以前，美国的失业率稳定在3.5%-3.8%左右，没有超过4%，在疫情后，飙升到了14%之上，但是随着各种防水以及刺激方案，失业率稳步下降，可以看到，在2022年3月之后，失业率就保持在4%之下。基本稳定了，恢复到了疫情前的水平。再来看就业人数，其实是和失业率的走势非常吻合的，目前呢，就业人口已经恢复甚至超过了疫情前的水平。

综合这两张有关就业的数据，答案已经很清晰了，美国是有继续加息的底气的，并且，现在也需要加息，所以，如果过此次CPI的数据微微下降，核心CPI继续上升的话，市场大概率会大力押注美联储继续维持75个基点的加息力度。按照这个思路推演，我们看多美元指数的思路依旧是有效的，并且市场也证明了，美元依旧强势。以此可以推出于美元相关的货币对，美元定价的大宗商品，以及美股的走势。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Rick Shao | GO Markets 专业分析师

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克里米亚大桥是连接克里米亚半岛与俄罗斯本土的唯一陆路通道，10月8日克里米亚大桥的公路桥上一辆货车发生爆炸，导致与公路桥并行的铁路桥上一列货运车上七个油罐起火，公路桥部分路段受损坍塌。乌克兰真理报8日援引匿名消息人士的话称，炸毁克里米亚大桥是乌国家安全局的一次特别行动。俄罗斯总统普京已收到相关报告，并指示成立一个政府委员会，以应对出现的紧急情况。俄外交部发言人扎哈罗娃8日表示，乌当局破坏民用基础设施，“证明了其恐怖主义本质”。俄国家杜马代表莫罗佐夫认为，此次事件是一次“宣战”行为，“一场毫不掩饰的恐怖主义战争正在发动”。爆炸发生后约10小时，有限的道路交通恢复，俄罗斯交通部批准铁路交通重启。当局目前允许小汽车和客车通车，所有车辆须经过全面安检。

突如其来的爆炸严重损坏了普京2018年亲自为其竣工典礼剪彩的克里米亚大桥，尽管亲俄当局数小时后宣布大桥“恢复通车”，但专家认为大桥真正修复尚需时日，而爆炸造成的政治及军事的后果难以估量。在普京生日期间不仅北溪管道出现了人为破坏，俄罗斯向欧洲供气的要道被套上枷锁，而且战略地位极其重要的克里米亚大桥被炸，俄罗斯对乌克兰作战的要害被攻击，不得不让世界担心俄乌冲突将骤然升级。让我们看看克里米亚大桥对俄罗斯意味着什么。这座连接俄罗斯本土和克里米亚的大桥完工后，使其对克里米亚的吞并得到了确认，自从乌克兰战争爆发以来，俄国人把这座大桥当作后勤流动的主轴，从这里派遣人员、输送重型设备、武器系统等。但目前所有这些都因这次爆炸将被搁置。尽管俄罗斯方面释放出一些想让人放心的信息，10小时宣布部分恢复通车，保证将在两个月内完成全面维修，但目前在俄军面临乌克兰猛烈反攻强大压力的南部战线上，任何延时造成的军事损失都是不可估量的。

克里米亚大桥是普京下了血本兴建的，俄乌战争爆发后的7月，俄罗斯前总统梅德韦杰夫曾放出狠话警告乌克兰：“如果他们敢袭击克里米亚大桥，审判日将非常迅速且猛烈地到来”。狠话撂那了，但现在克里米亚真被袭击了，俄罗斯该怎么办？普京能咽得下这口恶气？如果俄罗斯不用行动确定这就是红线，那乌克兰行动将越发没有底线。因为原先俄罗斯克制不对重要基础设施攻击，也没认真执行斩首计划，现在是不是都可能付诸实施？原先特别珍惜的巡航导弹，现在是不是也会烧一烧？从战局看，俄罗斯是真的穷了，老掉渣的坦克也开上了前线，兵力严重不足，被乌克兰突破防线后轻易可以纵深到腹地，前线实战兵力严重不足，后勤脱节现象更加明显，乌方目前逐渐转为反攻态势。随着战事的升级，不可控因素越来越多，特别是乌克兰的重型核电站，多次传出种种危险行为，一旦失去底线，整个欧亚大陆将遭受灭顶之灾。切尔诺贝利的前车之鉴历历在目，而扎波罗热核电站的规模远超切尔诺贝利，特别是欧洲大陆将瑟瑟发抖，更别说俄罗斯使用核武器了。当然从俄罗斯进攻乌克兰不炸民宅不毁基建的情况看，核战可能性极低，但是双方总要有个台阶下，战争受害者不仅是两国人民，拖垮的是两国经济，连累的是整个欧洲乃至世界经济。

能源危机加剧，跟普京烫手的生日礼物形成鲜明对比的，是欧洲即将到来的缺乏天然气的寒冬。对投资者而言，油气价格的暴涨，令政策预期更加不可预测。躲在远处等着坐收渔翁之利的美国，近些日子看着油价抬头也尽显疲态，货币政策对通胀的影响将被弱化，经济衰退将不可避免，更遭殃的是欧洲，潜在的金融危机或许正在逼近，我们只能期盼战争早日结束，还世界一个和平。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

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2022年10月10日，乌克兰首都和其他城市发生大规模爆炸，这次袭击是自战争初期以来袭击乌克兰首都最激烈的一次。最近几周，距离俄罗斯核电站约 52 公里的扎波罗热市经常遭到炮击。美国购买了2.9亿美元的防辐射物资和药物。乌克兰总统泽连斯基指责俄罗斯试图将他的国家“从地球上抹去”。

普京通过下令动员 300,000 名预备役人员来应对此前战事失利，宣布吞并被占领土，并警告说，如果北约威胁扩大，俄罗斯可能会使用核武器。俄乌战争还在继续。2021年欧盟从俄罗斯进口的煤炭占其总消费量的46%， 天然气占40%，石油占27%。China50已然快速下跌超过5%，对战争局势做出了快速反应。而当下，北半球即将进入寒冬。美国以4倍原有天然气价格卖给欧洲天然气。煤炭再次受到关注。澳洲煤炭股WHC上涨超过3倍。中国方面煤炭是唯一上涨的行业，而且是大涨，前三季度涨了32.67%。

回到澳洲。新的工党政府将澳大利亚的过渡固定在一项立法承诺中，即到 2050 年将净碳排放量减少到零，同时到 2030 年将临时减排目标减少 43%。工党正在通过扩大澳大利亚的代理碳价格和排放交易“保障机制”来应对净零政策挑战，以包括更多的排放大的行业。随着大型燃煤电厂AGL发电机的关闭时间表提前，澳大利亚加速退出以化石燃料的运行基石。但当下恰逢战争引发的全球能源紧缩时期，且中国已经大量进口澳洲煤炭，印度也已经大量购买澳洲煤炭开采权和股权。在拥有足够可靠的清洁能力到位之前关闭传统煤炭能源供应，对澳洲来说充满挑战。因此，近期澳洲政府对待煤炭或传统能源的态度应该会有所转变。如果澳洲对当下的能源问题不做出反应，零售电价可能在 2023 年至少飙升 35%。澳洲多家能源公司，包括Origin和AGL等普遍认为，花费百亿美元进行可再生能源的实现和推广，短期内难以实现。尤其是当下澳洲该类人才短缺。有意向的华人朋友可以向清洁能源领域尝试一下。

10号在悉尼举行的澳大利亚金融评论能源与气候峰会，澳洲上市公司Worley的CEO表示，到 2050 年为能源转型提供资金所需的全球投资规模在 100 万亿至 120 万亿美元之间。并建议澳洲政府参考欧美推行更加落地的绿色能源激励措施。澳洲政府确认制定经济脱碳路线。在未来 30 年期间，预计发电量将翻一番以满足不断增长的需求，澳洲需要将电网规模的风能和太阳能容量增加 9 倍，固定容量增加 3 倍，分布式太阳能发电量增加约 5 倍。仅能源系统一项就需要至少 1000 亿美元的额外投资用于低排放资本资产。因此，清洁能源和碳排放领域，依旧有较大的想象空间。而煤炭领域的股票预计还会保持相对强势直至北半球冬天来临。若欧洲当天能源储备充足，则未来煤炭股票价格会出现回落，天然气相关产品的价格也会逐步回落。短期供求的快速变化将会重新平衡。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

What is a deflationary Cryptocurrency? A Deflationary Cryptocurrency is one that burns, (mints) its supply. This process lessens the number of coins or tokens on the market over a specific period (generally a year), which reduces supply and increases the price.

In general terms, ensuring that there isn’t an oversupply of a currency can be an important monetary tool to reducing inflation. Evidence of quantitative easing and what can happen when there is an oversupply can be seen by the record high inflation seen around the world. The two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are both tipped to become deflationary in the future but for varying reasons Is Bitcoin deflationary?

Bitcoin has a fixed, maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC that will be fully mined in the year 2140. The current supply of BTC is 19,008,012.00 and 20% of this supply has been lost due to forgotten passwords and forgotten keys. It’s projected that Bitcoin may officially become deflationary once its full supply has been created, as the circulating supply will continue to reduce due to holders’ unintentional losses.

Is Ethereum deflationary? Unlike, Bitcoin, Ethereum does not have a maximum supply. Rather, it has an annual supply cap at 18 million ETH.

For Ethereum to become deflationary, 2 ETH would need to be burned per block; this is because this amount is minted for each block that is mined. As per the historical data, the ETH net issuance will dive lower creating a rally in the ETH price as the circulating supply will be less. A common way to achieve deflation is by burning tokens.

Ethereum does this by minting tokens that are staked or when NFTs are minted. A point worth noting is that cryptocurrencies with a finite supply are deflationary by default. When investors buy and hold the coin, the supply reduces.

Ethereum has temporarily turned deflationary in the last few days. An unknown project by the name of XEN has assisted in the burning of ETH. What is XEN?

XEN is a project created by the “Fair Crypto Foundation,” backed by Jack Levin, one of the first employees at Google working on cloud infrastructure. The ethos aims to empower the individual with a token that starts with a zero supply and has no pre-mint, CEX listings, admin keys, or immutable contracts. XEN, which launched on Oct. 8, can be claimed, minted, or staked and is based on the first principles of cryptocurrency: self-custody, transparency, trust through consensus, and permissionless value exchange without counterparty risk.

XEN can only be traded on Uniswap, where there is very little liquidity. Time will tell if the latest hot cake in crypto turns into just another swindle. Key Takeaways ETH has turned deflationary over the past 24 hours.

High gas consumption to mint tokens for the new project XEN Crypto is the primary cause of the ETH supply drop. ETH's supply has dropped on several occasions since Ethereum completed "the Merge" in September. Are you keen to venture into trading Cryptocurrency pairs, FX, stocks or commodities?

If so, you can do so by opening an MetaTrader trading CFD account with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers to get started. Sources: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://xcoins.com/, https://coingape.com/, https://cryptopotato.com/, https://cryptoslate.com/

Long and Short trading and investing strategies are often seen as advanced strategies only used for large hedge funds and large banks. However, retail traders can learn valuable lessons and ideas from this type of trading strategy that is usually reserved for institutional players. What is a long-short strategy?

A long-short strategy as described by its name involves holding a basket of both long and short positions of assets all a part of a portfolio or a singular trading strategy. These assets tend to be equities securities or derivatives but can also be other asset classes such as commodities and FOREX. The idea behind the strategy is that due to the negative correlation between the shorts and long positions they cancel out much of the market volatility whilst at the same time profiting up movements in price in either direction.

Steps to develop a Long Short strategy Establish which assets classes you wish to trade This step involves generating ideas for which asset classes you whish to trade. This may include FOREX, Commodities, Indices, or equities. For many traders, a combination of assets may produce an effective strategy.

For example, someone may choose to allocate 60% of the portfolio to equities, 20% to FOREX and 20% to commodities or 100% to equities. Determine how many assets to hold with in strategy. The aim of this section is to ensure that there are enough assets to be, diversified enough that a significant move in one direction will not blow the strategy out and to ensure.

The strategy requires that enough assets are held to minimise the volatility. If too few assets are used, then the returns may not be consistent enough and prone to large gains and losses. A standard range may include 20 assets with the breakdown of long and short varying from strategy to strategy.

Apportion the % of assets that will be held long and those that will be held short? This step involves an element of discretion and is where the individual trader can utilise their own experiences and edge to enhance the strategy. For instance, some traders may choose to create a 50/50 split strategy.

This means that exactly half the assets will be long, and half will be short. More specifically this split may occur via value weighting, number of assets or by price per share. Alternatively other strategies may involve having a lower proportion of short assets held, such as 20% Short and 80% long.

These types of strategies may work better when in a trending market because the strategy can still make money on assets that are falling in value whilst also taking advantage of the strong overall market trend. Choosing the individual assets to be held This is perhaps the most important step of the process. Choosing assets to hold can be a difficult task and may require both technical and fundamental analysis to find top performing assets to hold long and poor performing stocks to hold short.

The craft of the long, short strategy is performed at this stage as a trader needs to find high performing or low performing assets. An example of a 50/50 Long Short Portfolio construction is shown below. (NOTE this is a fictional Long Short portfolio and is not a real strategy or portfolio) Positives of a Long Short Strategy A long-short strategy may be able to avoid volatile returns and the effect of a choppy market because the short positions can reduce negative returns if the market is falling, and long positions can take advantage of the market is lifting. if a trader can effectively allocate their Longs and shorts, profit can be effectively achieved in most market conditions. Allows a trader to utilise their ‘edge’ for a wider array of assets.

Disadvantages This approach requires active portfolio management. As positions are constantly changing and weightings for different assets change, adjustments may need to be made to ensure that the strategy continues to balance. A Long Short strategy also generally requires a longer time frame then other scalping strategies or intraday strategies.

Having short positions means that the holder of the short is at risk of short squeezes. A short squeeze is something that anyone wishing to short should be aware of. It occurs when to many short positions attempt to close their positions at once.

This can cause a spike in the price and may force bigger positions to close, further driving up the price. Ultimately, a Long Short strategy for trading and investing can be a way to achieve more stability in volatile market conditions and provide a way to capitalise on market movements in both directions. Even just understanding how a Long-Short strategy works can provide traders and investors with enhanced understanding of how market forces impact on trading and potentially provide new strategies.

Gold has finally seen some respite in its price after it fell to 12-month lows. With slowing growth forecasts being a key reason as to the drop in price. Recessionary fears can sometimes be good for the price as volatility draws money to gold as it is seen as a haven.

However, with the USD being so strong and investors pulling their money away from Gold, the commodity has struggled to protect its value. The price has shown some interesting action in recent days. The weekly price was able to break through its long terms support at about $1690.

However, as this level was so significant, the price is now retesting zone. In addition, the price has bounced off the 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average is often seen as an extremely strong support level and rarely gets broken without significant resistance and then combined with the support zone has proven difficult to break down through.

However, the price is no sure thing to continue to bounce. As seen on the chart, the price is also in a consistent downward channel and has so far failed to break through the top of the channel. The daily chart confirms the bounce and shows why the price may have found resistance.

This is because it is currently resting below the 50-day moving average which is acting as long-term resistance and has acted as resistance since May 2022. The question remains, will the price remain at its current level, push up or push down. As more economic data comes out and Central banks either double down on inflation or pivot towards easing interest rates which will hopefully provide some more clarity on which way the price may go.

At this stage it would be best to wait for a confirmation either to the downside or upside of the channel.