市场资讯及洞察

Baidu Inc. (BIDU) reported its unaudited Q2 results on Tuesday. The Chinese technology company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $4.424 billion for Q2 (down by 5% year-over-year) vs. $4.395 billion expected.

Earnings per share at $2.36 per share for the quarter vs. $1.59 per share estimate. Robin Li, CEO of Baidu: "Despite a challenging macro environment caused by Covid-19, Baidu Core generated RMB23.2 billion in revenues in the second quarter, while Baidu AI Cloud revenues maintained rapid growth momentum of 31% year over year and 10% quarter over quarter." "Apollo Go further solidified its position as the world's largest autonomous ride-hailing service provider. Apollo Go completed 287K rides in the second quarter, and accumulated one million rides on July 20, becoming an important alternative means of people's everyday travel in the Yizhuang region of Beijing.

Moreover, in a momentous landmark, Apollo Go became the first provider to offer fully driverless ride-hailing services – i.e. completely without human drivers present in the car - on open roads in Chongqing and Wuhan, allowing us to further scale up our operations at an accelerated pace," Li added. "Baidu Core delivered a non-GAAP operating margin of 22% in the second quarter, up from 17% in the first quarter of 2022, as we continued to optimize our costs and enhance operational efficiency," said Rong Luo, CFO of the company. "Going forward, we remain committed to quality revenue growth and sustainable business models," Luo concluded. Baidu Inc. (BIDU) chart Shares of Baidu were down by around 7% on Tuesday at $137.49 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +2.82% 3 months -1.72% Year-to-date -7.29% 1 year -12.15% Baidu price targets Benchmark $270 Citigroup $223 Barclays $235 JP Morgan $125 Mizuho $285 HSBC $180 Baidu Inc. is the 334 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $47.08 billion.

You can trade Baidu Inc. (BIDU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Baidu Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

在几个月之前我和大家在讨论到有关是否会发生世界经济危机时说到。危机通常为意料之外突然发生的事件所引发的剧烈变化，而目前的情况来看，只要中美或者美俄之间没有爆发直接的冲突，那世界的经济虽然不会迅速反弹，但是也不会出现急剧的暴跌，更大的可能是缓慢而意料之中的小幅倒退。而对比欧美国家，澳洲却有着其他大部分欧洲国家所没有一招绝招——通过增加移民数量来凭空制造消费和经济活力。

我们知道在大部分欧洲的非移民国家里，当经济发生衰退的时候，往往通过传统的货币政策或财政政策来刺激经济，但是相比之下，澳洲除了可以使用这些传统的方法以外，更可以通过控制移民这个水龙头来直接影响国内经济。上次和大家做过简单计算：每一个技术或商业移民每一年可以带来：至少6万澳元工资收入或雇佣支付+5万澳元吃喝住行=11万澳元的直接GDP贡献，而这11万的直接贡献，在整个经济循环中，通常可以带来3倍的杠杆，也就是产生额外33万澳元的上下游经济利益，因此一个有工作，或者雇人的移民，几乎每一年可以给澳洲带来40万澳元的综合经济贡献。这还不算买车和买房。一个人40万，1万人救市40亿，4万人救市160亿澳元的综合经济利益。因此澳洲现在的联邦政府通过增加4万人，可以直接或间接地拉动至少160亿澳元的GDP。这招，英法德等欧洲国家没办法用。只有加拿大和澳洲目前依然是出于地广人稀，需要每年增加人口的发达国家。美国的移民条件太过于苛刻，我们通常排除在外。

可能有朋友会问，既然这移民这么帮助经济，为何今年不直接翻倍，别4万了，干脆多16万得了。答案是不可能。虽然澳洲很大, 但是我们都知道，可能70%以上的移民最终会选择在悉尼或墨尔本之间。因此这就会造成大量新增人口，对于基础设施的需求会暴增。比如，学校，住房，医院，GP诊所等等，都会出现位置不够的情况。而且大量的技术移民，也会对本地工作人士产生竞争压力。大家应该还没有忘记在2010-2015年，澳洲经常时不时会有国会议员呼吁减少移民数量，因为其选区的选民有抱怨说新移民抢了他们工作。

但是现在的经济情况，给予了目前的联邦政府完美的条件：物价飞涨，经济放慢，但是本地各行各业却又非常的缺人，因此这时适当的增加移民数量，不但不会影响选民的选票，更会帮助小企业主和小生意主降低雇佣成本。但是增加太多，会产生消化不良。我认为联邦政府出台的这个新增4万的数字，是经过计算和评估社会目前的承受力以及目前经济情况来决定的。说白了，就是在提升经济和符合基础设施建设速度中求得一个平衡点。但是大家不要忘记我之前也说到，提高移民数量，应该说是澳洲提高经济为数不多的直接有用的招数了，那既然是大招，为啥要现在就用？何不等到山穷水尽才用呢？因为这不是烤爆米花，3分钟就可以吃。从增加移民数量，到审理挤压案件，到新增加的移民落地这中间的时间少说也要6个月。况且新到的移民的确一年可以增加几十万澳元的GDP，但是这不是第一天落地，第二天几十万就有了，而是需要经历一个过程。

如果从山穷水尽才开始增加移民数量，那等到这额外4万移民产生GDP的时候，GDP坟上的草都快二尺高了。说白了，就是要留出足够的时差。咱们加油也不会用到最后一滴才去，这新增移民也是一个道理：油快用完了，就需要开始找加油站了。另一个问题是有朋友最近问。澳洲之前一直依靠矿产，现在中国的地产不太会大涨了，那以后怎么办呢？这个问题涉及的方面太多，从中国经济到房地产政策，从民企经商环境到中澳关系，一天都说不完。今天我就挑简单的说。总的来说，澳洲从2013年之后，就一直在试图减少对矿产的依赖，通过大力发展第三产业来试图分散风险。效果如何呢？到疫情之前为止还是不错的：旅游，教育，金融，吃喝玩乐，都属于第三产业。同时澳洲也在试图寻找或挖掘未来可以替代中国对铁矿石需求的国家。越南和印度就是目前澳洲矿业重点期待的两个国家。虽然我们经常看到新闻说中国的某某工厂搬去了印度或越南。

但是截至今年上半年，这两个国家对于铁矿石的需求量依然无法和中国相比。为啥呢？因为他们目前发展经济过程中并没有类似中国集中的基础设施建设狂潮，以及房地产热潮。或者说，还没有大规模地产热潮。因此对于钢材的需求并不像20年前中国一样的多。但是虽然不多，也总好过没有。毕竟目前中国的地产问题短期内不会缓解，也就意味着新盖的住房在未来1-2年内会出现大幅下降。那这些楼所需要的原材料的多余产能，怎么解决呢？如果钢铁厂库存太多，自然就会减少生产，那自然对于矿石的未来需求也会相应减少。所以这一遍是中国的需求减少，另一边是印度越南的需求增加还跟不上。那咋办？没办法，只能等，靠，要。就看：1.中美未来经贸关系是否能缓和。2.中国年底开完会之后，目前的清零政策是否会改变。但是虽然中澳经济关联很大，但是由于澳洲有移民调节和农产品原料基地的优势，因此在今年北半球大旱，粮食严重减产的背景下，依然将会是农产品出口的赢家。

简单来说，澳洲产矿，产粮，产牛羊，人口只有2400万，还是移民大国。这就几乎等于斗地主手里有3个炸弹和2个王。就算打地再烂，也不太会垫底。对于生活在澳洲的华人朋友来说，咱们不用担心吃不饱，最多也就是少了几个菜而已。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

The price of wheat is finally starting to show positive signs after an aggressive sell off that has been ongoing since May 2022. There is hope that the price of the commodity may begin to climb again with the price finally finding some support. The price has been impacted by growing fears that production may slip may increasing volatility and increasing in price.

Pressure from Global Warming has effected the production/farming of the grain reducing supply. India in particular which is the second largest producer of wheat, has suffered from rising heat levels with its production dropping by 3% in 2021/22. Furthermore, the constant ambiguity surrounding the Russian and Ukraine crisis still has the potential move the price even higher adding to a potential supply crunch.

Technical Analysis The Price chart for wheat shows how the price ran during the initial stages of the Russian and Ukraine crisis, before failing to breakout and entering an aggressive downtrend. This shift is essentially a long-term reversion to the mean moving back towards the 200-day average and prior long term supports. The price action is a common follow on from sharp and fast rises in prices.

The price has now settled and consolidating between $770-$850 and importantly broken out of the downtrend. Adding to the evidence for a potential reversal is that there is a divergence between the RSI and the current price. As it can be seen, the RSI is itself in an upward channel and has crossed through the 50 level.

This can be compared to the actual price which is still consolidating. Divergences can be an early indicator that a reversal is about to occur. This current price action is showing the potential for a bounce based on the factors discussed above and presents a potential long trade with a risk reward of around 2.5:1.

For this trade, the recent resistance point of $940 can be the first target. If the price can pass through this level, it may be able to reach $970. Placing a stop loss below the recent low wick at 830 provides solid risk management in case the price goes in a different direction.

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上周道指下跌了4.22%，纳指下跌4.44%，标普下跌4.04%，三大股指周线连续第二周下跌，又是周五一天占了整周的跌幅，继上周分析技术面出现阶段顶以后，美指短期内反转进入下跌行情，这一切无疑是发生在鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上讲话之后，短短十分钟仅一千多字的发言，美盘一万蒸发了上万亿美元的市值。上周其实澳股走势还算不错，ASX200周线收跌0.15%，基本保持平稳，多数矿业股还有一定幅度的上涨，矿业权重股连续的财报利好稳定了整个矿业板块的股价，加上能源价格持续走高，澳股在周五收盘时是依旧十分强势的。但风云突变，市场就是瞬息万变，鲍威尔的发言用十分钟击溃了美股，本周澳股也无疑会深受影响，加上9月初澳联储即将再次加息，本周股市走势变得很不乐观了。

本周也有一些经济数据待公布，周一拼多多财报，周二百度等中概股财报来袭，中美刚刚签署的审计监管合作协议相信将对中概股有很大的提振作用。周二欧元区经济景气指数，德国8月CPI和周三的欧元区8月CPI数据相信都会对疲软的欧元继续造成冲击。周三还会公布加拿大6月季调后的GDP，加元也将短线受到影响，所以本周外汇交易的机会会比较多一些。周四日本公布8月外汇储备，日元稳定性将再次受到检验。周五自然是最重要的美国非农数据，目前预测值为29，远低于前值52.8，同时公布的美国8月失业率也是十分关键，这两者也将决定当晚美股走势。上周五杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔仅用十分钟就改变了整个八月的美股走势。鲍威尔的发言其实是符合预期的，在他发言之前舆论媒体已经经过了大肆渲染，普遍认为是鹰派立场，这点我在上周也有说到。但市场预期鲍威尔乘鹰而来，却未曾预料他会顺带扑灭了市场对明年美联储会即时降息的预期。

鲍威尔讲话的内容大概可以概括为以下几点，首先是9月加息规模取决于整体经济数据，即将公布的8月CPI就显得尤为重要了。目前市场预估9月加息75个基点的概率已经超过65%，但这并非造成周五股市暴跌的根本原因。他强调7月通胀数据回落是令人高兴的，但目前还无法确认通胀正在全面下降不会反弹。美联储当务之急是快速把通胀降到2%，历史经验告诫美联储不能有任何松懈，在通胀进入死亡螺旋之前迅速扑灭任何上涨可能。另外鲍威尔还讲到随着政策推进，就业环境可能有所疲软，从而给家庭带来一些消极影响，但这些都是降低通胀过程中需要付出的代价。真正让股市暴跌的原因是鲍威尔肯定了在通胀确定控制到2%之前是不会降息的，这就与市场之前预期明年三月份美联储加息到顶后会快速进入降息周期以恢复经济相违背，因为通胀从目前超过8%下降到2%的漫漫长路不知道何时能够实现，这也加剧了市场看衰目前股市走向。

中美刚刚签署的审计监管合作协议，和美股股指形成鲜明对比的是，该协议将对中概股有很大的提振作用。中美签署审计监管合作协议是开创性的，基本扫平了中概股在美上市的最关键顾虑。首先我们来分析一下中美审计监管合作协议的几大要点：首先确立对等原则，该对等原则需要在法律允许范围内，中方会尽力协助美方完成相关审计工作，这里提到的法律，重点指的当然是中方的法律，因此中方掌握着主动权；其次明确合作范围，自然是在美上市的中概股，但审计底稿需要存放在中国香港，是不会被移交到美国的。再次是明确协作方式，需要提前沟通协调，双方共同参与下获取审计底稿进行审计，这一点简单说就是需要在中方点头后才允许美方在中方监管下进行审计；另外提到的协议签署的目的是为了实现跨境合作，这自然对上市公司有利，并且具有两国双赢的效果；还有审计底稿合作的优势，因为审计对象是中国在美上市公司，但直接审计对象却是会计事务所，无需每年检查，还提到了用特定程序处理敏感内容，还是中方掌握了主动权；最后这一协议最大的好处就是能够使中国在美上市的公司可以避免因为审计无法双通导致财报无法按时披露而被动退市。综合上述几点，自然是大大提升了中概股的投资和发展信心。而在该协议签署前，几大央企中概股的在美存托上市部分都基本已经退市撤离，也不会造成后续审计可能造成的敏感信息泄露，也可谓做足了功课，我们也希望中概股从此真正觅得了一条好的出路。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

Wheat Trading Opportunities Wheat is a well-known soft commodity that is vital for any kind of bread product. It also has important uses for the feedstock for cattle which is vital in economies with large agricultural sectors. The supply and demand for wheat can be volatile with changes occurring for a multitude of different reasons.

The most recent spike in price was caused by the Russian and Ukraine Crisis. The soft commodity saw a large spike largely due to the economic sanctions placed on Russia and supply chain pressures that the war caused in Ukraine. Both countries are large exporters of wheat with Ukraine producing about a fifth of the world’s high-grade wheat and 7% of all wheat across the world.

Therefore, the supply shock had a large effect on the supply available driving up the price. Some of the other countries that produce the bulk of the worlds supply include China, the USA, Canada, Australia, and India were able to benefit from the higher prices. A strong USD Like all commodities, wheat is quoted in USD.

This means that when the USD is strong, the price of the commodity becomes weaker because the producer must sell their produce for less. Due to recent market volatility the USD has risen as investors have looked to the USD for safety. This has in turn negatively affected the price of wheat The Price of Oil The price of oil plays a role in the overall price of wheat.

This is because oil is an important input cost for wheat. Oil is needed for both the transportation and the actual farming of wheat. As the price of oil increases the costs must then be offset by the wheat producers who then raise their resale price.

Therefore, when forecasting what the price of wheat may do in the future, assessing the future of the price of oil can be a helpful tool. Emerging economies Countries with developing economies tend to be higher importers and consumers of wheat. In addition, countries in the Middle East and Africa import lots of wheat because they do not have an environment that is conducive to producing wheat.

For instance, in countries in the desert such Egypt where there is little water, and it is exceptionally dry such as Egypt very little wheat is produced. This explains why Egypt is one of the highest exporters of wheat and if the demand from these countries it would likely impact on the overall price. Technical Analysis The price chart of wheat tells an important story.

It can be observed that the wheat futures initially spiked at the beginning of the war in Ukraine as the market reacted to the initial supply shock. The price then moved into a tight consolidation tightly before breaking out towards the highs. However, this breakout failed, and was unable to rise above the key resistance level at $1354.

The price of wheat then entered a downward trending channel where it currently remains. The price has also broken down below the 200 Day Moving Average which does not bode well for bullish moves in the short term. Before this break down, wheat had not fallen substantially below the 200-day moving average since June 2020.

On the other hand, the price is currently sitting in the top half of the channel. The price may be able to break out of the channel to the upside. In addition, it is also sitting in area of long-term support between 750-850 USD.

Wheat Future Contract CFD’s can now be traded on MT5 on GoMarkets platforms

In my previous article we discussed, what is an EA and their benefits. To read up on their disadvantages please follow the link to an article written by my colleague Daniel Vary here. Today we are going to discuss how you would use a VPS to enhance the use of an EA, especially if you are running various EAs simultaneously.

What is a VPS? A virtual private server (VPS) is a virtual program sold as a service by an Internet hosting service. The virtual dedicated server (VDS) also has a similar meaning.

A virtual private server runs its own copy of an operating system (OS), and customers may have superuser-level access to that operating system instance, so they can install almost any software that runs on that OS. For many purposes it is functionally equivalent to a dedicated physical server and, being software-defined, can be created and configured much more easily. Depending on the resources that you choose, the location of the server, the virtualization technology, and the quality of your service, the price of your VPS will change.

GO Markets provides a VPS to all its clients, it’s a free trading tool we make available which would otherwise come with a monthly fee. Why would traders use a VPS and what advantages do they offer? As a trader who is looking to incorporate an Expert Advisor in their trading strategy, they may well need the use of a VPS, this helps to facilitate a smooth working condition for one or several EAs running simultaneously and to run as effectively as possible.

An Expert Advisor is a tool that is programmed to work 24/7, it is imperative that the running of your trading system and the vessel which it operates in i.e. computer or laptop is not disrupted, go offline or lose power, otherwise you will find that your EA won’t be able to operate, open, close trades or do whatever you intend to do with it. A simple advantage to think about, is purely that a VPS enhances the EAs capabilities and with it, it may improve your trading goals. A VPS facilitates a smooth and quick link to a reliable server, that means it keeps the connection alive for as long as possible to allow the EA to do its job, getting access to a reliable server should be your highest priority, especially given the nature of how fast paced markets like Forex markets can be.

Choosing a VPS provider? There are few important points that you need to look into when choosing the type of VPS you want to acquire. There are some key features to look understand to get a VPS that will fit within your EAs specifications, your trading strategy and style.

We will look at the specific features of the VPS shortly but first you need to consider which Operating System OS you like your VPS to run on, Windows or Linux? Linux is an open-source operating system and is cheaper than windows. The Windows VPS hosting can be preferred if you are developing in.NET or if you have applications that are designed for the Windows platform.

RAM – It stands for random-access memory. It means that your computer RAM is essentially short-term memory where data is stored as the processor needs it. The Ideal RAM for a VPS for this purpose would be 4 GB.

If you are running several EAs, which use up more than the available RAM, then may need to look for a bigger VPS or simply add another VPS on another account. CPU – Central processing unit, is a principal part of any digital computer system, generally composed of the main memory, control unit, and arithmetic-logic unit. They have proved to work smoothly even at peak times depending on the quality and size of the processor.

You need to have 14nm architecture with a multi-core for multitasking but a 6vCPU works in most normal cases. Hard disk HDD – The traditional hard disk storage space will always be bigger and more inexpensive. But a solid-state drive is recommended for a VPS hosting.

They are fast at rebooting; the performance is certainly huge and transfer speeds are more than the traditional disks. The SSDs are resilient during power failures, which makes them a perfect fit for VPS hosting. A faster hard drive is necessary because even if the RAM and CPU are fast you need an equally faster storage drive to service those requests Go Markets VPS As a valuable client of GO Markets, you can get access to a VPS once you have a live account with us.

Simply, by applying for one via your Client Portal. The VPS runs on both MT4 and MT5 systems and allows you to execute trades using EAs, quicker and easier. GO Markets offers free monthly VPS access to clients completing a minimum trade volume of US$1m per calendar month (approx. 5 round turn FX lots).

If this volume is not met, a VPS service fee will be applied per month which will be charged from trading account. Please see below the specifications of our VPS below. Our VPS is a Shared Hosting, managed Cloud based solutions running on Windows 2016.

Sources: Wikipedia, Babypips, GO Markets, operavps.com, www.websitebuilderexpert.com,