市场资讯及洞察

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过去几个月我听到很多同事在讨论一个客户经常问到的问题。一个特别常见、但其实非常容易误解的问题：为什么在二级市场里，现货黄金（Spot Gold）和期货黄金（Forward/Futures Gold）经常会出现价格不一样，甚至差很多？是不是平台搞鬼？是不是市场出问题了？是不是有人操控？其实都不是。背离不仅正常，而且几乎每天都在发生。今天我就带你用专业扯淡员的视角，真正看懂背后的逻辑。看完这篇文章，你对黄金市场的理解会比很多所谓“专家”还深。现货 vs 期货：一种黄金，两个世界为什么同一条黄金，价格还能不同？因为它们反映的东西压根就不一样。现货（Spot）反映的是“现在的需求” 而期货（Forward/Futures）反映的是投资者对于“未来的成本与预期”你就理解成，现货是“你今天去市场买一份烧鸭饭”。期货是“你预订两个月后开始，每天吃烧鸭饭的长期套餐”逻辑看似相近，但是并不一样。因此，只要投资者对于“现在”和“未来”的判断不一致，价格就一定会有差距。现货黄金：即时买卖需求推动的“情绪价格”。现货价格主要来自全球的OTC 场外市场、银行做市商、或二级衍生品券商的交易渠道。它的特点是：1. 立即成交。2. 谁买得急，价格就往上冲。3. 谁砸盘快，价格就往下掉。4. 受突发事件影响价格变化极快。比如：

中东又打仗了？
美国公布CPI物价指数。
美联储突然改变对于降息的口吻。
股市突然崩了一下等等。

在这种情况下，短期内就会有大量资金瞬间冲进交易黄金，因此就会第一时间改变现货价格。所以现货代表的是“现在的真实需求、真实恐慌、真实避险”。一句话：现货很感性，很“人性化”。它就是市场当前情绪温度计。‍期货黄金：利率、资金成本、时间价值堆出来的“理性价格”期货价格是用“数学＋金融工程”算出来的。它反映的是未来的各种成本，包括：持仓成本（Carry Cost）美元利率黄金租借利率（Gold Lease Rate）存储、保险成本市场对于未来经济的预期然后再把这些数字放进一个公式里：F=S+(利率−黄金租借利率)×时间因此自然就会和现货价格不同。总结来看，期货更“理性”、更“数学”，很多时候不太理会因为短期的恐慌或情绪变化而出现价格的突然变化。你可以理解为：期货是学金融的人算出来的，现货是文科生写情绪化文章造句造出来的。那为什么两者会背离？其实背后是市场结构决定的。背离发生的原因很多，但核心都指向一个大框架：现实需求vs 未来预期的冲突。下面我把最关键的几类情况给你讲一讲，用最接地气的话让你听懂。

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‍1. 利率变化：期货对利率敏感，现货对利率不敏感美联储加息的时候，期货价格会自然变贵，因为持仓成本上升。但现货就不一定，因为现货是即时需求驱动。于是通常美联储加息，就出现：

利率升，推动黄金期货价格往上
现货不一定跟
两者出现差距

这不是人为故意的，而是宏观经济框架下必然的现象。2. 避险情绪：现货先暴冲，期货慢半拍比如哪个国家被炸了、股市崩盘、CPI爆表。正常散户和避险资金买的都是现货XAUUSD，不是期货。所以在这种突然发生的意外情况下：现货价格就会被瞬间拉飞期货黄金价格则会因为受利率、仓位、展期成本影响，反应更慢，因为一段时间后市场判断可能又恢复平静了。所以你看到的价格背离，往往就是此时此刻市场买卖双方的真实恐慌vs 未来2-3个月的预期之间的差别。3.黄金的隔夜拆借利率（overnight swap rate）震荡这是很多散户完全不知道的逻辑，但在交易圈非常关键。其实就和货币一样，黄金也有隔夜拆解率。虽然和美元比较绑定，但是也有自己的价格走势。当全球黄金拆借利率突然上升，意味着银行借黄金成本变高，期货的“未来价格”会被压低。因为储存一段时间会耗费更多的成本。于是就会出现：

现货黄金贵
期货黄金便宜

这其实是流动性紧张的一个信号。4. 期货结构：不同交割月本身就不一样黄金期货不是一个价格，是一条“价格曲线”。比如：

近月价格最低，因为时间成本比较少。
远一点交割月的随着利率、时间成本而逐步变高。

这种结构叫做Contango（正向市场），但有时候也会出现反向结构Backwardation如果你只盯着一个报价，很容易以为“怎么价格不对”。但其实是不同月份的价格本来就该不一样。比如大家如果觉得1个月内这个地缘政治意外情况搞不定，但是3个月后应该可以大概率搞定了，就会出现远期的反而比近期交割的期货黄金价格还要高。5. 流动性不足时，现货与期货同步性变差比如在澳洲白天的亚洲时段，通常交易的数量和参与资金都会远远少于欧美时间段。因此在亚洲时间段内：

现货流动性较强
期货流动性偏弱

这时任何一边的需求变化都会造成“价格暂时不同步”。这在衍生品券商里特别常见。上面说了那么多，我们散户投资者应该怎么理解这些背离呢？其实背离并不是奇怪的事，通过判断期货和现货的价格差别，反而能告诉我们：

市场现在害怕什么
市场未来预期什么
黄金是不是被突然抢购
流动性是否紧张
LP 是否在避险
全球有没有正在发生的突发事件

所以懂得读价格背离，你就比大部分人更快看到市场信号。当然，说了太多大家可能记不住，反正我们散户正需要记住的就两句话

现货价格是市场的当前情绪
期货价格是市场的未来预期

‍只要“情绪”和“预期”不一样，价格就不会一样。这就是背离产生的根本原因。

Mike Huang

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November 18, 2025

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从Dota2国际邀请赛抢票衍生出的黄牛经济学

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一年一度的dota2国际邀请赛将要召开啦。Dota2国际邀请赛也俗称TI，之前已经召开了10次比赛而这一次的就是TI 11.这次举办的地址选在了新加坡，这是电竞界的最高盛事首次来到东南亚。这将是迄今为止连续四个周末的Dota 赛事，共有来自世界各地的30 支队伍参加，这也将是迄今为止最大的Dota 赛事。

Dota 2是由Valve在2013年开发和发行的多人在线战斗竞技场(MOBA)视频游戏。该游戏是远古防御( Defense of the Ancients )的续集，DOTA是暴雪娱乐的《魔兽争霸III：混沌之治》社区创建的模组。Dota 2是在两由五名玩家组成的队伍之间进行的比赛，每支队伍在地图上占领和保卫自己的独立基地。十名玩家中的每一位都独立控制一个强大的角色，称为“英雄”，他们都拥有独特的能力和不同的游戏风格。在比赛期间玩家收集经验值以及进行物品的购买，为了可以击杀对方团队的英雄。一个团队首先摧毁了另一个团队的“古代遗迹”，这是一个位于队伍己方基地，一旦基地遗迹被摧毁，那么摧毁方就会赢得比赛。因此，在这样的规则下，就让Dota2的比赛充满着许多的不确定性，无论击杀对方英雄多少次，一旦遗迹被摧毁，还是会输掉比赛。所以，DOta2的游戏魅力应运而生，那就是有无限的可能性，有时候一个小小的失误也可能葬送掉比赛。不过就是dota2的学习周期太长和上手难度高，导致游戏新鲜血液也越来越少。在今年8月分开始出售新加坡Ti11的比赛门票，但是在短短的15秒钟，门票就被黄牛抢购一空，作为想买门票的doter，不禁也感叹，黄牛真厉害。

不过，我们今天就来讲一讲从dota2国际邀请赛购票衍生出的黄牛经济学。黄牛一词的出现，是来源于20世纪的上海，在当时，票贩子进行抢票的的时候都是跑得快，挤的厉害，人们就称其“似黄牛之群骚动”。那么这个词真正开始推广的原因是之前的春运。春运期间，无数的人返现家，那么春运票就出现了供不应求的一个情况，而且因为政策的限制，票价不可能持续上涨。在这种情况下，黄牛就看准了这个机会，提前购入大量票，然后以高价把票卖出去，以此来牟利。纵观历史，黄牛实际上一直都存在于我们的社会生活当中。各个地方的叫法不同，有叫倒爷的，有叫黄牛的。然而他们都是同一类人。随着时代的改变，黄牛的倒卖范围也在不断的增加，从之前的演唱会票，到后来的Dota2 Ti 票，新上市的电子产品，甚至医院的挂号。大部分人把黄牛归结为管制的不够完善，而实际上，其中也存在的底层的经济学逻辑，让黄牛这一职业存活了下来，甚至到这些年，存活的也越来越好。

首先，最大的问题就是供不应求和价格的控制。对于这些情况，实际上就存在一个供不应求的关系。每年或者每个时间段有的供给是一个固定的数量（图中的S），但是在需求端是在逐渐上升的（D1-D2）。那么就造成供求曲线不存在任何的弹性。同时，在价格严格控制的同时，原本可以通过涨价使得需求降低的情况也不存在。这时候，黄牛的就应运而生，黄牛通过牟利，赚取差价，让票价上市(P1-P2)，从而需求降低(Q1-Q2)。从某种意义上来说，黄牛“创造”了一个二级市场，然后通过自定义价格去使得供需达到一个罕见的平衡。当然，这个自定义的票价也不是随便去定义的，而是符合市场需求环境去定价。只要一天供给达不到平衡，价格继续被控制住，黄牛就会继续牟利。

以这次Ti门票为例，实际上，对于决赛的门票一定需求大于供给的，那么黄牛看准这个机会，先抢到这个票，把价格提上来，最后卖出去牟利，而黄牛也知道，决赛门票只要不是贵的离谱，近期是不会出现滞销的，因此，很多人成为的抢不到票的倒霉蛋。进而大概率只能去购买高价的黄牛票。其次，就是定价的公平性。实际上很多东西的定价对于不同人群是不同的。举个例子，抢购某个新产品，会员价格是5000，非会员价格是7000.那么这样的情况就会自然而然的产生差价，要么我就成为会员，要么就是找有会员的人买。当然，有会员的人出售的时候，大部分都不会以5000的原价出售。因为我费时费力的抢购，但是又不会以7000的非会员价出售，这时候可能6000就是一个合理价格，那么就可以达成双方都开心的局面。没需求的会员赚了1000，有需求的非会员节省了1000元。当然，这并不能改变黄牛在我们心中的地位。最主要的原因就是，黄牛打破了一个最基本的原则。公平。因为无论是我们抢票还是买东西，只要我们有足够的资金，都有权去购买想要的产品，这就是有着同样机会的公平性。就像但是黄牛通过自身的手段，使我们失去了这种机会和权力的公平性。其次就是使得供求双方的权利受损的可能性非常大。因为其使得供需双方不能直接交易，那么很容易出现就是分配不公平的现象。最简单的例子就是，黄牛价格太狠，导致演唱会门票滞销，想看演唱会的人看不到，辛辛苦苦准备的歌手等主办方努力付诸东流。然后就是，黄牛中不可避免的存在有欺诈的存在，导致供需双方利益进一步受损。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师

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August 26, 2022

Qantas outlook report

Overview Qantas is Australia’s national carrier and the largest and oldest airline in the country. With the Qantas group comprising of Jetstar, Qantas, QantasLink, its frequent flyer service and a freight service, the airline is the sector leader domestically and a global competitor in the international aviation industry. It is also the third oldest airline still operating and has seen many evolutions over the years to be the giant that it is today.

With recent threats of inflation, recessions, and the pandemic, the airline has been dealt some challenging blows but has managed to work its way through due to some astute leadership by its Board and its CEO, Allan Joyce. Recent Events Short Term Troubles In the short term the airline has struggled to service its flights and ground crew. With Covid 19 and the flu still rampant the company has had to deal with cancelations and a reduction in its workforce as it has faced difficult logistical challenges.

In June 2022, 8.1% of Qantas flights were cancelled according to the Australian, Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. The company also lead the sector for delays in domestic flights. As a premium airline and the national carrier, the effect on the company’s reputation and goodwill, may prove to be costly.

Furthermore, building a long-term reputation of being unreliable may lead to a lowering of its market share as customer look to others. Bid for FIFO competitor hits a roadblock Qantas has a bid in place to acquire the airline that services much of the FIFO industry. Qantas had proposed a bid of $4.75 per share to buy the remaining 80% of the company of which it already own a 20% stake.

If the takeover were able to pass though regulatory approval it would provide the airline with a dominant share of the resources and industry. However, regulators at the ACCC expressed its concerns about the merger with the body outlining that the transaction may substantially weaken competition. Upcoming annual report The company is expected to release its annual report that will give further details on the company’s financial performance for the previous financial year.

The company is expecting to achieve EBITDA of between $450 million to 550 million dollars for the second half of the financial year. The impact of the oil crisis and the delta variant may heavily on the results. In addition, assuming operations can return to some normality in the next year, it is possible that the company will be able to return to profitability next year.

Strategy Long term strategy Qantas is transitioning its domestic, freight and international fleet to Airbus aircraft with longer ranges and an increased capacity over the currently used Boeing 737s. The shift towards Airbus’s called ‘Project Winton’ will improve fuel efficiency, range, and flexibility. The change may elevate Qantas’s ability to improve its bottom line as it allows for higher capacity and further range.

The flexibility of the aircraft enables Qantas’s fleet to remain more dynamic and for the company to meet the needs of both the international and domestic schedules. Specifically, the project will improve units’ costs vs the current fleet set up. Project Sunrise Qantas aims to be the first airline to connect the East Coast of Australia to key cities in Europe and the USA with direct flights.

Specifically, Sydney and Melbourne will be able to reach London, Paris, NYC, and Chicago with just one flight. Beginning in 2025 the program will utilise modified Airbus A350’s to make the journey. This strategy may provide the airline with an important point of difference as the first airline to partake in this route strategy.

The ‘project’ has two potential major advantages. Firstly, it allows for a reduction in costs. By removing layovers, the airline can save on costs associated to the airport and refueling and staff constraints.

Secondly, it allows Qantas to develop more route paths into Europe without the need to rely on code sharing agreements. Forecasting future cash flows and revenues The company is expected to return to profitability next year as it comes out the other side of the pandemic. The model used has predicted a revenue growth rate inline with the previous years of profitability.

Furthermore, considering the project sunrise the projecting is that the company can return to the revenue levels of 2017 – 2019 by the year 2024/2025. Whilst a conservative approach has been used, it is not unreasonable to have revenue get to this level earlier. The forecast revenues below are for the next 5/6 years.

In addition, it is assumed that during the year 2025 the company may see increased costs as it looks to establish its Project Sunrise and it goes through retraining of staff, crew, and maintenance staff. It is possible that in those initial years, Net profit may decrease due to this implementation. Forecast Revenue, in Million $ 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 5,930 8,685 11,000 14,000 17,000 17,792 18,621 Last financial year, the airline was able to improve its Net Profit margin by from 5% to 14% by heavily reducing its capital expenditure.

The pandemic caused the company to reduce its maintenance and purchasing costs. As of the last annual report Qantas was in a strong short- term position with a current ratio of 1.5. with the new report imminent, the ability meets its short-term liabilities, specifically relating to the price of fuel will be an important metric to analyse. With a Debt/Asset ratio of 0.33 the company has a solid balance sheet and is not at an overleveraged position.

After assessing all the opportunities and risks and understanding a price target of $5.50 in the next 12 months is not an unreasonable target, with a return to profitability and the airline hopefully seeing the end of Covid 19 restrictions. Threats Inflation With record high levels of inflation, the cost of inputs across the supply chain for Qantas. With the increases in costs of most inputs the airline will have to be careful in its pricing to ensure it can survive the increase in costs.

With the increase in fuel being an obvious problem, other input costs will also negatively affect the airline. In Australia, inflation is currently hovering around 6%. However, with the airline being multinational, and operating globally it is exposed to the inflation risk of the country it operates in.

Recession With much of the work expecting a recession, the pressure on the travel industry may increase again. Whilst it may be a soft landing for Australia’s economy, exposure to the world markets places Qantas at a level of risk. Demand for travel may be reduced.

Coming out of the pandemic, this is something that Qantas may find tough to deal with. With the company already implementing various strategies to reduce costs, the question remains, how can costs be cut further. Oil Prices As inflation reared its ugly head across the much of the developed world, Qantas has suffered at the hands of peaking oil prices.

With the price of Crude oil peaking at over $130 US a barrel during the height of the Ukraine and Russian war the cost was passed on to the airline industry. In response to the increases in prices the company had to increase the price of air fares proportionally to offset the price. In addition, 90% of the fuel costs for Qantas were hedged through till June meaning they were likely spared the worst of the spike in fuel price.

The figures from the annual report will provide some guidance to how well the company was able to manage the supply shock. Pandemic The pandemic has seen lots of blood appear, especially in the travel industry. Whilst the worst of the pandemic seems to be over, the potential for a resurgence or another major outbreak of a virus is still very much real, and the travel industry has not forgotten.

Ultimately, the Airline remains in a strong financial position. However, it has shown that it is prone to unsystematic risks that have the potential to throw the company into chaos.

GO Markets

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August 26, 2022

从欧元汇率创新低看欧盟在中美博弈赛局中的尴尬处境

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2022年8月23日，欧元兑美元创下新低，一度来到0.9898跌破了0. 99大关。与此同时，美元指数离前期新高109.30只有一步之遥，来到109. 276。叠加欧元区和美国的消息面，明显有一些避险资金从欧元资产流向美国使得美元升值。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，欧元区主要国家正经历着经济衰退，能源危机和通胀高企等不利局面。

时间回到2018年，中美爆发贸易战和科技战，世界上最大的两个经济体已经全面博弈了，上万亿美元的贸易战在历史上是绝无仅有的。

作为世界第三大经济体的欧盟自然是双方拉拢的对象。欧盟身处绝佳的战略位置，只要应对得当，在未来的世界格局中，将能得到更大的利益。2020年12月30日，中国与欧盟举行领导人高峰会谈，共同宣布中欧投资协定如期完成谈判。自2013年启动，协定谈判历时七年、35轮，主要内容涉及市场准入承诺、公平竞争规则、可持续发展和争端解决等，是一个全面、高水平的双边投资协定。后续中欧双方将就文本展开撰写、审核等工作，尽快形成可供签署的法律文本，并加快推动双边内部批准程序。原本该协定有可能在2022 年上半年正式通过。但随后中欧关系由于各种原因急转直下。2021年5月5日，历经7年于2020年底谈判达成的《中欧全面投资协定》面临触礁，欧盟当天表示将 “暂缓”将此协定交付欧洲议会审批，引起国际关注。欧洲议会5月20日冻结中欧投资协定批准程序，欧洲议会以压倒性优势通过这一决议。其中有599票赞同、30票反对与58票弃权。

2022年2月，中俄签订了远东天然气购销协议和原油购销合同。在天然气购销协议中，双方用来结算的货币不使用双方的法定货币而是欧元。此举客观上能大力提升欧元的国际货币地位，打击美元独大的格局。此后俄乌冲突爆发，在美国的煽动下，欧盟似乎没有对未来作出明智的判断，只顾及眼前对俄罗斯的打压。西方国家对俄罗斯实施了疯狂的五千多项制裁，没收了俄罗斯政府和私人在海外的资产。在文化、科技、金融、贸易将俄罗斯彻底孤立于欧洲。

但半年后，事与愿违，此消彼长。今天的欧盟早已没有之前的底气，主要表现在三个方面。一、一年来整个欧盟的财富大幅缩水，大量资金逃出欧洲。2022年8月22日，欧元美元跌破平价，最低来到0.9898。同时，俄罗斯频频出台货币措施，开始对西方集团进行反击。不友好国家必须使用卢布支付天然气费用，并且允许使用黄金兑换卢布。这使得卢布升值，欧元反而跌至二十年来新低。当然，上文提到中俄能源结算也不会用欧元了。就这一笔，就使得欧元错失了一个追近美元的绝佳机会。

二、欧盟遭遇能源危机、粮食危机、高通胀、供应链短缺、民众正常生活被严重影响。8月19日，俄罗斯天然气公司宣布，将于8月31日 -9月2日停止北溪管道的天然气输送，原因是天然气涡轮机需要维护。8月22日的最新数据显示，欧洲9月天然气期货的价格达到2862美元/千立方米，当日价格上涨了12.7%。有人预计，到年底价格可能至4000美元/千立方米。欧洲的天然气在最近的14个月里涨价了1000%。7月份，欧元区19个国家通胀率同比创下8.9%的新纪录，为1999年欧元正式发行以来的最高水平。自俄乌冲突爆发以来，全球粮食供应已经受到严重干扰，而如今高温干旱席卷欧洲恐让形势雪上加霜。欧洲今年遭遇500年来最严重干旱。法国农业咨询公司StrategieGrains预测，2022-2023作物季欧盟整体谷物产量将同比下降8.5%。

产量下降预计将使欧盟粮食供应出现短缺。玉米和大麦的缺口在10万吨，小麦缺口为20万吨。战争致使欧洲供应链出现问题，高通胀，高价能源。很多欧洲国家民众因为价格太高，很多家庭已经每天减少一顿餐食。欧盟还要求各国降低天然气使用量的15%，希望能熬过冬季。

三、欧元区主要国家经济衰退风险和债务风险的加剧在能源危机的阴霾下，欧元区经济已经疲态尽显。欧元区综合PMI已经连续两个月处于荣枯线下方，衰退风险迫在眉睫。8月23日，IHS Markit公布的数据显示，欧元区8月综合PMI初值为49.2，创下18个月新低。其中服务业PMI初值为50.2，创下17个月新低；制造业PMI初值为49.7，创下26个月新低。能源危机对欧元区经济的影响是全方位的。从需求端看，能源价格上涨会导致居民生活成本提高，可支配收入下降。从生产端看，能源短缺使企业生产成本提高，不少企业被迫停产或减产，工业产出下降。而工业产销能力下降又会影响企业用工和居民收入增长，进一步限制消费支出，使得经济陷入恶性循环。目前看，受地缘政治、天气等因素影响，欧元区能源短缺现象暂时看不到缓解的迹象，下半年能源危机将持续。整体而言，欧洲经济衰退已成定局，冬季处境将更加艰难。虽然欧元区二季度经济仍保持正增长，但市场普遍担心能源短缺将推动创纪录的通胀进一步上升，使欧洲经济陷入衰退，二季度可能成为欧洲经济“最后的增长”。

除了经济衰退，欧洲债务风险也需要警惕。经济强国和边缘国家之间的利差扩大，被视为欧元区金融稳定指标的意大利/德国国债利差达到200点左右，回到了2020年4月的水平，这实际上是个别国家“碎片化的风险”，在欧元区加息预期提升的角度下，欧洲核心和准核心国家债券市场出现割裂的现象。除此之外，欧元区的通胀问题也非常棘手，根据欧盟统计局的数据显示，欧元区7月份CPI年率终值为8.9%，创历史新高。在欧元区内部，不少国家通胀率已经突破10%大关：捷克目前通胀率为17.5%，波兰通胀率为15.7%，匈牙利通胀率为13.7%，希腊通胀率为11.6%，斯洛文尼亚的通胀率为11%，西班牙通胀率为10.8%，荷兰通胀率为10.3%，而立陶宛和拉脱维亚的通胀率更是高达20%以上。这使得欧洲央行只能跟随美联储的节奏继续大力加息。相对鹰派的货币紧缩政策又会反过来加剧欧元区经济衰退的可能和部分边缘国家的债务风险。归根究底，以上困境有很大程度来源于欧盟没有战略自主，这个最大软肋使其失去了在新世界格局中争取应有地位的机会。

俄乌冲突爆发后，欧盟根本无力调停这场战争，战争的主导权在美国手中。相反，广大发展中国家非常清醒，能维护自己国家的最大利益，几乎没有站队美国，都持中立态度。而与中国的关系也悖离默尔克掌舵期间的务实风格。欧洲内部受反华势力的影响，以及美国的离间策略，欲冻结意义重大的中欧贸易协定和放弃其他一些符合中欧共同利益的经济利益。自拜登政府执政以来，欧盟明显更倾向于迎合美国的战略，客观上并没有做出符合自身利益的战略决策。

欧盟既搞不清自己的利益，也维护不了自己的权益，一步一步将自己陷入困境，至今看不到出路。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jason Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

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August 25, 2022

How to develop a good training plan?

Trading FOREX, equities, commodities, and any other asset can be an emotional rollercoaster. With so many different emotions and external factors difficulties impacting a trade, it is crucial that before any trade is executed a trading plan is produced to minimise the impact of the ‘noise’. Generating the Idea The first step to any plan is to generate a trading idea.

Trade ideas, come from one of three sources. A fundamental source, a technical source, or a mix of both. What does this mean exactly?

Well, when generating ideas from a fundamental perspective, a trader can generate idea based on economic events, monetary policy from a Central bank or company relevant information just to name a few. From a technical perspective, a trader may find that an asset is trading near a potential support or resistance level or developing into a breakout pattern. Alternatively, the price may have touched an important moving average which indicates it may be ready to trade.

Traders can also put these ideas together to come up with even more robust trading ideas. Background economic factors and sector analysis Before entering a trade, a good trader should have at the very least a rudimentary understanding of the relevant sector or economic factors that may influence the trade. For example, a trader decides to trade the AUDUSD currency pair.

The trader has seen that the price is approaching a short-term support point and decides to buy the pair expecting the price to bounce of the level. However, the trader is not aware that the Federal Reserve has just increased interest rates which has increased the value of the USD. Consequently, the price goes against the trader.

Technical breakdown Prior to entering any trade, the trader should analyse the price chart and set up relevant support and resistance levels. This allows the trader to have a clear idea of key supply and demand zones for the asset before the emotions of the actual trade become prevalent. To effectively go about this step, support and resistance levels can be analysed on multiple time frames to gain an even greater edge. [caption id="attachment_272243" align="alignnone" width="2560"] Business Team Investment Entrepreneur Trading discussing and analysis graph stock market trading,stock chart concept[/caption] Entry condition Having a trade idea is one aspect however having a clear entry criterion will help reduce the impact of emotion when watching the trade unfold.

Some examples of potential entries conditions can be related to a break and retest of a certain level for an entry or waiting for a specific candlestick pattern. Furthermore, an entry may also be defined by a disproportionate increase in volume supporting a breakout. Exit Conditions Like determining entry conditions having pre planned exit points can improve the management of emotions during also trade whilst also enhancing risk management.

Setting take profit targets/stop loss areas will help ensure that a trade is well structured even before initiating the trade. Having pre-determined exit points can also help determine if a trade is worth entering in the first place as it allows for a determination of the potential risk reward before execution. Risk management No matter whether the trade is a scalp, swing trade or longer-term investment, each should have clear risk management guidelines.

Good risk management involves the use of stop losses and correct sizing of a trade. One method that can be effective is to have a maximum amount of the total account that you are willing to lose per trade. This could be a percentage figure or a fixed amount.

For example, if the total account size is $10,000 and you decide that the maximum loss per trade is 1%. This means that the maximum loss per trade would be $100. The next step is to then set stop loss.

The stop loss in many cases should be independent of the actual maximum risk amount. The stop loss level should be calculated before the sizing. Once the stop loss is set the size of the trade can be determined.

Risk management is perhaps the most crucial element of the trading plan because minimising losses is crucial to any long-term success in trading. Whilst having a clear trading plan will not guarantee success it will help remove many behavioral biases that can impact on a trade.

GO Markets

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August 25, 2022

美元触及20年新高，欧元影响力超过美联储？