市场资讯及洞察

This coming Friday sees the January core PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Now most are forecasting that it should confirm that inflation has eased compared to this time last year. The consensus estimate has the monthly increase at 0.2 per cent with the annual rate at 2.5 per cent.

Now that is premised on a range of factors, they are also based on the fact the newly installed administration was not in power when these numbers were being collated. For now then – here are the key issues of the PCE read this Friday: Inflation Expectations: A temporary blip? Or is this the ‘transitory v structural debate again? – Upside impactor Several surveys are showing some upward movement in price expectations, mainly down to tariffs and other new external impacts.

Most don’t see this as a sign of a new inflationary trend but that is cold comfort considering how wrong these forecasts have been over the past three years. Case in point here is the University of Michigan’s 5 to 10 year inflation expectations which jumped to 3.5 per cent in February release, highest of this cycle. The caveat is that while this figure is high, historically this read has run above actual inflation, even when inflation was stable at 2 per cent, even so – a 1.5 per cent miss seems way out and even a 2.8 to 2.9 per cent read would be an issue for further cuts and the current US inflation story.

Other things to keep in mind: Tariffs were front and centre in February and clearly remain a political and geopolitical risk/threat. It should die down in the coming weeks as the administration settles in, the news cycle moves and the size of the tariffs retreat – that is until something causes the President to react. But March should be quieter – but the year will be volatile.

Countering the University of Michigan survey is the New York Fed’s, which hasn’t shown a major shift. If the increase in expectations were widespread, this would move the dial and would be more concerning. It makes the NY Fed data all the more interesting ahead of its launch.

We should also point out February’s manufacturing PMI showed rising input and output prices, while service sector price indices eased – why? Tariffs. This aligns with the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports that kicked in earlier this month.

With 25% steel and aluminium tariffs set for March 12, some price pressures may persist in March. Used Car Prices: A Temporary Divergence? – Down side impactor Used car prices in CPI have been running hotter than expected, especially relative to wholesale prices, which typically lead by a few months. And, this even after the surge in used car prices during the COVID era.

This market has remained above trend but is easing a Manheim wholesale used car prices fell 1.1 per cent month on month in early February, reinforcing our view that CPI inflation in this category has limited room to rise. If consumer demand were truly driving higher prices, we’d expect to see wholesale prices moving up as well which hasn’t happened. New York Congestion Pricing: Is this one and done?

A big policy pitch from the President for the state of New York was the congestion charging throughout New York City. True to its word the Trump administration revoked approval for congestion pricing in New York City, which had gone into effect in early January. This is likely to be the reason for the 2.6 per cent month on month spike in motor vehicle fees within CPI.

If the fee is ultimately scrapped, we’d expect an equivalent pullback in this CPI category. But with legal challenges keeping the fee in place for now – it was a double hit. One to watch.

Housing & Shelter: Watching LA Zillow’s single-family rent index rose 0.33 per cent month on month in January, consistent with shelter inflation continuing to slow – but still growing above historical averages. However it is not even across the country - Los Angeles rents spiked 1 per cent month on month - the biggest monthly jump since early 2022. The recent fires may have played a role, and if this strength persists, we could see upward pressure on shelter inflation later this year.

Median home prices remained flat in January, and with the broader housing market cooling, long-term upside risk to shelter inflation remains limited. In short, this Friday’s PCE is going to a line ball read – any hit that inflation is continuing to defy expectations as it has since September, the Fed will be dealt out of the rate market in 2025 and the USD, US bonds and risk exposures with debt are going to see reasonable movements. Which brings us to the other elephant in the market trading room – Tariffs on silver things.

Tariff Changes on Steel and Aluminium: Who really pays? We have been reluctant to write about the steel and aluminium tariffs that were announced on February 11. The Trump administration confirmed its plan to reinstate full tariffs on imported steel and aluminium—a move that will significantly impact both industries and consumers.

These tariffs are scheduled to start in early March, these Section 232 import tariffs will impose a 25% duty on steel and aluminium products, with aluminium tariffs rising from the previous 10% to 25%. Right now every nation on the planet (including Australia) is in Washington trying to wiggle their way out of the impending price surge – so far there is radio silence from the administration on if it will budge on any of the changes. Memory Lane If we take the 2018 tariffs as a guide, history suggests that once domestic stockpiles are depleted and buyers turn to global markets, U.S. prices will likely rise to reflect most of these duties.

However, exemptions may still be granted, particularly for aluminium, where the U.S. depends heavily on imports about 85% of aluminium consumption comes from overseas. While U.S. importers will bear roughly 80% of the tariff costs, exporters may need to lower prices to remain competitive—assuming they can’t find better pricing in other markets. Other things to be aware of from a trading point of view - The U.S. imports ~ 70 per cent of its primary aluminium Canada.

Who is the biggest play in that Canadian market? Rio Tinto. And it's not just Canada Rio Tinto ships approximately 1.75 million tonnes of aluminium annually from Canada and Australia.

Nearly 45 per cent of Rio Tinto’s U.S. aluminium sales are value-added products, which carries a premium of $200-$300 per tonne over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. That is something that very much irks the President. Couple this with the fact physical delivery in the U.S. is also at a premium price and that gives you an average price estimate that could rise by ~40 per cent to approximately $1,036 per tonne ($0.50/lb), up from the 2024 average of $427 per tonne.

The thing is Rio Tinto itself is forecasting strong demand in North America, and its Value-add pricing is unlikely to change as domestic suppliers can’t easily replace the volumes it needs. In short, price pressure is coming – and suppliers will likely win out over the consumer. So what about Steel?

The U.S. imports 25-30 per cent of its steel so it’s not as reliant on this product as aluminium, but 80 per cent of those imports are currently exempt under Section 232 which is about to scrap it. That means the tariffs will impact around 18 million tonnes of steel imports annually, with: 35-40 per cent being flat products, 20-25 per cent semi-finished steel, and the rest covering long steel, pipes, tubes, and stainless steel. The Trump administration has signalled concerns over semi-finished steel imports, particularly Brazilian slab imports (~3-4 million tonnes per year).

What Does This Mean for Steel Prices? All things being equal - U.S. domestic steel prices will rise in full alignment with the 25% tariff on affected imports. The short and tall of it For both steel and aluminium, the reintroduction of tariffs means higher prices for U.S. buyers, particularly once inventories run down and imports reflect the new duty rates.

While exemptions remain a possibility, businesses reliant on imported metals should prepare for cost increases and potential supply disruptions. Traders should be ready for volatility, margin changes and erratic conditions as the administration rages over pricing issues.

在上周澳洲央行成功的开始了第一次澳元降息之后，现在市场都把目光转移到了另一个话题：第二次降息将会是多久之后呢？在之前几篇分析文章里我和大家分析过，其实我们看一件事，不能只看表面。澳洲很多银行和基金里的那些分析师，很多都刚毕业不久，冲劲很足，但是对于一些数字和财报以外的东西都不在意。换句话说，我们中国人都知道人情世故的重要性，别说在澳洲央行这么重要的岗位了，就算是普通一个公司里，不同部门之间还都要留一点情面。所以判断澳洲什么时候降息，是否会在大选之前至少降一次，这些不仅仅是要看数据，更需要看人情世故。啥是人情世故？澳联储这次的女行长从副行长被提拔成行长，就是现在的工党财政部长做的决定。理论上完全可以提名其他人，但是机会给了现在的女行长，所以，从政治选边的角度来说，虽然澳洲央行必须保持独立性。但是在一些可上可下，比较模糊的决定上，毫无疑问，澳洲央行女行长如果不想未来只做一届的话，应该还是会知恩图报的。

这也是为什么我判断，即便是澳洲某些核心数据还没有达到降息要求，但是央行依然会选择在澳洲大选之前降息。因为工党需要降息来帮助其选票。其实这次工党还使用其他的压力来软性要挟澳洲央行：就是通过面谈的方式，迫使澳洲四大银行在央行做出决定之前就开始宣布降息。这其实就是把如果不降息的锅100%的抛给了女行长：群众们你们看，四大银行都已经降息了，这央行还不愿意降息。是不是完全不考虑民生民意？是不是草菅人命？在这样的压力之下，澳洲央行女行长不得不在2月初就选择第一次降息。在降息当天，澳洲四大商业银行都已经纷纷宣布，将会100% 把0.25%的降息优惠传递给客户。这是啥？这不就是妥妥的政商结合么？为今年当选目前的执政党送上一波利好。对于商业银行来说，央行降息会重新推动房贷申请量的增加，因此他们更希望可以看到降息。

但是，然而，but。2月第一次降息之后，下一次降息将会是什么时候呢？在这里我们做三种情况的分析：1. 从大选角度来说，下一次降息最好的时期就是在大选投票之前一个月。因为这将会极大的帮助选民缓解心理压力，从而自然的把这个归结于目前执政党的功劳。2. 但是如果从实际当前的经济和物价情况来看，澳洲其实并没有达到第二次降息，甚至我个人认为物价依然没有降低，就算是第一次降息也应该在3，4月。大家都知道现在澳洲超市由于禽流感的原因导致的鸡蛋紧缺。而鸡蛋的批发价格也在上周上涨了10-15%。鸡蛋，是统计通货膨胀里食品中一个非常重要的因素，而鸡蛋价格的上涨，也会带动其他禽类和奶制品价格的上涨，最终推动食品综合价格上涨。毫无疑问，禽流感和鸡蛋短缺，不可能在未来2-3个月就完全解决。因此食品价格居高不下，将会继续存在。加上目前汽油价格回到1.9澳元以上，加上依然非常低的失业率。如果我们只看数据，非常较真，那爹日降息至少要半年后。3. 如果按照正常的思路，2月降息之后，要达到最佳的经济刺激效果，下一次降息是时间需要尽量的短，以达到在短期内多次降息从而刺激经济的效果。根据目前澳洲国债市场的价格显示，澳洲在2025年年底之前还会有最少2次的降息。

总结一下，2月如果我们硬要卡数据，其实澳洲并没有完全达到降息标准。但是现在的财长也不是个善茬，居然找了四大银行提前降息给央行施加巨大压力，加上本身之前的提拔就属于政治人情，因此我开头就说了，澳洲央行也不是书呆子，既然女行长这么懂得人情世故，愿意在2月就降息，那自然在之后的一次次选择里，也不会只看纸上数据。但是，咱们的通货膨胀真的压下去了吗？从牛奶面包咖啡，到火车票汽车加油，到五金店装修房屋材料费和人工费，到手机家电价格，到下馆子吃饭喝酒价格。我们生活中的各种商品和服务价格依然在不断上涨。虽然水电煤气政府通过补助强行压低，但是普通百姓未来将会不可避免的，长期的，生活在不断上涨的物价中。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题

本周三，市场瞩目的英伟达（NVDA）即将公布最新季度财报。这不仅是投资者关注的焦点，更是整个科技行业，尤其是人工智能（AI）赛道的关键风向标。作为 AI 计算的核心供应商，英伟达在过去一年里凭借 GPU 业务的爆炸性增长，成为全球最受追捧的科技股之一。然而，在市场对其寄予极高期望的情况下，这份财报能否继续超预期？投资者又该如何应对财报前后的市场波动？

财报前市场情绪：谨慎与期待并存

随着财报日临近，市场情绪开始变得复杂。周一，英伟达股价下跌逾 3%，带动整个科技板块走低，纳斯达克指数也因此承压。这种回调并非完全出乎意料，毕竟，在过去几个月里，英伟达股价已经大幅上涨，市值突破 1.8 万亿美元，市场对其业绩的高期待值几乎没有留下任何失误空间。

不过，机构仍然普遍看好这次财报。Wedbush 分析师表示，预计英伟达将再次交出超预期的成绩单，并提供乐观的业绩指引，这可能有助于缓解投资者的紧张情绪。问题在于，市场是否已经提前计入了这一乐观预期？如果财报结果“仅仅符合”预期，股价是否还能够继续上涨？

财报关键看点：营收、AI 需求与前瞻指引

本次财报最重要的看点包括以下几个方面：

1. 营收与盈利表现目前市场普遍预期英伟达本季度营收同比增长 超过 200%，盈利可能超过 12 美元/股。这样的增长速度在整个科技行业都是难以匹敌的，但如果数据仅仅符合预期，市场可能不会给予额外的上涨空间。投资者更希望看到的是英伟达交出 远超市场预期 的数据，才能进一步推动股价突破新高。
2. AI 需求是否持续爆发？英伟达的增长很大程度上依赖于 AI 服务器和数据中心的需求。过去几个季度，云计算巨头（如微软、谷歌、亚马逊）以及各大科技公司都在疯狂采购 AI GPU，以支持其 AI 训练和推理任务。那么，这种需求是否依旧强劲？客户是否愿意持续加大 AI 资本支出？管理层是否会透露 Blackwell 架构（英伟达下一代 AI 芯片）以及 新一代 H100/H200 GPU 的供需情况？这些都将决定市场对英伟达未来增长的信心。
3. 未来指引能否支撑高估值？除了本季度数据，市场还会密切关注英伟达对于下一季度的业绩指引。华尔街希望看到公司继续维持 强劲增长预期，如果管理层释放任何关于需求疲软或订单放缓的信号，都可能成为股价调整的导火索。

交易策略：财报前后的市场应对

面对即将到来的财报，投资者需要提前考虑不同情况下的交易策略：

• 短线交易者 可以密切关注财报公布后的市场反应。如果财报 超预期但股价未涨反跌，可能是“利好兑现”导致的短期回调，这对于短线交易者来说是获利了结的信号。而如果财报不及预期，股价大幅回调，则需要观察市场是否出现恐慌抛售，并寻找潜在支撑位进行短线反弹交易。
• 长期投资者 需要关注行业大趋势。尽管短期波动难以预测，但 AI 仍是未来几年科技行业最重要的增长动力。如果财报后股价回调，可能是一个长期投资的良机。可以结合技术分析，观察英伟达是否在关键支撑位（如 50 日或 100 日均线）获得买盘支撑，从而判断是否适合逢低布局。

结语：英伟达财报的市场影响

无论财报数据如何，英伟达的表现都将直接影响整个 AI 赛道的走势。如果公司继续超预期增长，市场信心将被进一步提振，带动 AI 相关个股如 AMD、微软、Meta 等继续走强。而如果数据不及预期，可能会引发市场对 AI 产业周期性的担忧，短期内可能出现资金撤离的情况。

对于交易者而言，财报公布前后往往是市场波动最大的时刻。无论是短线交易还是长期投资，都需要结合市场情绪和数据表现做出理性决策。面对即将到来的英伟达财报，市场已经屏息以待。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：

墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Sylvia Qin | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

Many traders rely on breakouts as key trading opportunities. The logic is simple: when price moves beyond a well-defined support or resistance level, it signals strength and continuation. However, markets are deceptive, and more often than not, these breakouts turn into fakeouts—also known as false breakouts or traps.

A fakeout occurs when price briefly breaks a key level, triggers breakout traders into positions, and then reverses sharply in the opposite direction. This traps traders on the wrong side, often leading to stop-loss hits and unnecessary losses. Fakeouts are particularly frustrating for traders who follow textbook breakout strategies because they often get stopped out right before the market moves in their original direction.

However, these false breakouts aren't just random occurrences—they happen due to liquidity grabs, institutional trading strategies, and market psychology. Why You Need to Understand Fakeouts Understanding how and why fakeouts occur is a crucial skill for price action traders because: Fakeouts trap retail traders, and recognizing them early helps you avoid costly mistakes. Fakeouts offer high-probability reversal setups for traders who can spot them in real-time.

Fakeouts reveal where liquidity exists—a key factor in how institutions trade. Learning to trade against fakeouts allows you to think like professionals rather than follow the herd. This article will break down what fakeouts are, why they happen, how to identify them, and most importantly—how to avoid getting trapped and profit from them instead.

What is a Fakeout in Price Action? Definition: A fakeout (false breakout) occurs when price briefly moves beyond a significant level (support, resistance, or a trendline) but fails to continue in the breakout direction and reverses, trapping traders who entered on the breakout. Fakeouts happen in all markets, asset classes and across all timeframes, making them a universal challenge for traders.

Why do Fakeouts Happen? Four main reasons are cited in the trader literature, for each of these explanations as to what may be happening and examples will be given. Liquidity Hunting (Stop-Loss Grab by Institutions) Large institutional traders execute massive trades that require a significant number of buy or sell orders to fill their positions.

Since liquidity is invariably concentrated either side of key levels, institutions will often trigger stop-losses before reversing price. How this works: Retail traders place stop-losses just beyond support and resistance. Smart money (institutions and market makers) push prices beyond these levels to trigger stops and create liquidity.

Once stop orders are triggered, institutions enter their own trades at optimal prices before reversing the move. Example: EUR/USD is trading near strong resistance at 1.1000. Many traders expect a breakout and place buy orders above this level.

Meanwhile, traders who are short have stop-losses above 1.1000. Institutions push prices just above 1.1000, triggering stop-losses and breakout buy orders. As soon as enough orders are activated, institutions reverse the price downward, trapping long traders.

Retail Trader Traps (Herd Mentality Exploitation) Retail traders often trade breakouts in predictable ways, meaning their behaviour is easy for professionals to manipulate. Many use simple breakout strategies, where they enter long trades above resistance and short trades below support. Institutions exploit this retail behaviour by triggering these breakouts and quickly reversing price, often resulting in retail traders exiting trades in panic.

Example: Price approaches a well-established support level at $50.00. Retail traders place buy orders right at $50.00, expecting a bounce. Instead, price briefly dips below $50.00, stopping out traders who had tight stop-losses below support.

The market then rebounds strongly, leaving stopped-out traders frustrated and missing the real move. Market Manipulation (Whale Activity & Stop Runs ) Large market participants, often called whales, engage in strategies that artificially create breakouts to lure in traders. This is a more aggressive form of liquidity hunting.

How whales manipulate price: They place large fake buy or sell orders to create an illusion of demand or supply. Retail traders react by jumping in on the breakout, adding liquidity. Once enough traders enter, whales reverse the move and trap breakout traders.

Example: Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, attracting thousands of breakout traders. Shortly after, price suddenly dumps to $98,500, triggering stop-losses before eventually rallying higher. Low Volume Breakouts (Weak Buying/Selling Pressure) A true breakout should be accompanied by strong volume, confirming that buyers or sellers are committed to pushing the move further.

Fakeouts often happen when price breaks a key level but lacks volume, signalling that the breakout is weak and likely to fail. How to Spot Low Volume Fakeouts: A breakout occurs on low volume, meaning there is no real buying or selling pressure behind it. Price moves beyond a key level but quickly returns inside the previous range.

A sudden spike in volume after a reversal confirms that institutions entered against the breakout. Example: Gold breaks above major resistance at $2,700 but does so on low volume. The price moves slightly higher but quickly falls back below $2,700, confirming a fake breakout.

How to Avoid Getting Caught in Fakeouts There are three VITAL ways in which you can look to reduce the chance of getting caught in a fakeout. These are as follows: Wait for Confirmation Before Entering Breakout Trades One of the biggest mistakes traders make is entering trades immediately after a breakout. A breakout should be confirmed before entry, or it risks being a fakeout.

How to confirm a breakout: Wait for a strong candle closing beyond the breakout level on your relevant timeframe (ideally over multiple timeframes rather than taking action intra-candle before it is mature. Acting on candle bodies rather than wicks as a general rule may be prudent. Observe whether price holds above support/resistance on a retest.

It is thought that up to 35-40% of breakouts will retest so being patient and allowing your trade to breathe may be worth exploring. Obviously, a continued move back through a ley level may be a different signal i.e. of a fakeout. Look for multiple confluences (trend alignment, volume confirmation, and price action signals).Note: this may take some time and significant testing to find the right set of confluence factors that are optimum for your trading style and risk tolerance 2, Using Volume as a Confirmation Tool Volume provides a clear indication of breakout strength and is a real time indicator rather than lagging.

A real breakout, that may give the best chance for a positive outcome, should have rising volume, while a fakeout often occurs on weak volume. How to use volume confirmation: If volume increases significantly during a breakout, the move is likely real. If volume remains low, the breakout is suspicious and may fail.

A spike in volume on the reversal suggests a fakeout has trapped traders. Example: A breakout above a key level occurs on low volume, suggesting that buyers are not fully committed. Shortly after, price falls back inside the range, confirming a fakeout.

Trade in the Direction of the Higher Timeframe Trend Fakeouts are more common when a breakout occurs against the prevailing trend. How to use trend confirmation: If the higher timeframe trend is bullish, avoid short trades on a minor timeframe breakout. If the higher timeframe trend is bearish, avoid chasing upside breakouts.

Obviously one of the challenges is to determine which is the appropriate longer timeframe(s) to use for your chosen primary trading timeframe. To give an extreme example, it hardly seems rational to use a daily timeframe to check for a 5-minute timeframe trade, in such a case an hourly trade may be more logical. Example: A daily chart shows a strong downtrend, but the 1-hour chart shows a bullish breakout.

Instead of going long, wait for a fakeout and trade the reversal in the trend direction. How to Profit from Fakeouts (Taking advantage of potential “trapped” Traders) As with all trading activity the aim to give yourself a potential edge, i,e an advantage over other market participants. There are always winners and losers, your responsibility of course is to make sure you are on the right side of that.

Therefore, considering how you may act more as the institutional professional trader may do and take advantage of such fakeouts could put you on the right side of the market moves. Part of this, albeit at an intermediate level, could be to look at strategies that may offer opportunity when price has failed to breakout. I will briefly outline the thinking behind two of the more common approaches to achieve this in step-by-step format.

The Fakeout Reversal Trade Wait for the fake breakout to occur. Look for rejection candles. Enter a trade in the opposite direction.

Set your stop-loss above/below the fakeout wick. Target a logical exit point (previous support/resistance). The Liquidity Trap Setup Identify key liquidity zones where fakeouts are likely.

Look for aggressive price spikes followed by quick reversals. Enter against the breakout once confirmation occurs. Summary Fakeouts are a common market phenomenon that trap traders who enter breakouts too early.

By waiting for confirmation, using volume analysis, and understanding liquidity grabs, traders can avoid being trapped and even profit from fakeouts. Remember the following key points from this article as you move forward: Fakeouts are not random—they happen because of institutional liquidity hunting. Volume, trend alignment, and confirmation candles help filter fake breakouts.

Fakeouts may offer high-probability reversal opportunities if traded correctly.

赤字狂飙，美国财政纾困已迫在眉睫。2024年1月，美国财政部公布的数据显示，当月财政赤字高达1290亿美元，同比暴增近5倍，环比增长48%。这一数字背后，是美国财政赤字率持续攀升的严峻现实——2023年赤字率已突破6%，远超拜登政府承诺的“3%红线”。更令人担忧的是，随着债务利息支出（2023年达1万亿美元）和社会保障等刚性支出占比超过70%，美国的财政结构已陷入“借新还旧”的恶性循环。

财政压力倒逼，如何缓解？基于近期特朗普政府各类动向，三大路径浮出水面。一是压低国债利率，二是政府降本增效，三是砍军费。理论上美国政府存在这三种选择，但各自的可行性差异悬殊：路径一：压低国债利率如果10年期美债收益率从4.5%降至2.5%，每年可节省数千亿利息。然而，这需要美联储大幅降息，而当前3.3%的通胀率（远超2%目标）让鲍威尔难有操作空间。2月20日公布的美联储1月会议纪要显示，许多委员支持在经济强劲、通胀顽固的情况下保持利率的限制性，进一步释放了暂不降息的信号，而当前强劲的就业市场也可以使得美联储在理论问题上从容不迫。路径二：政府降本增效马斯克的“政府效率部”（DOGE）已在五角大楼裁员数千文职，但进一步压缩可能激化社会矛盾。2023年联邦雇员罢工潮显示，此举政治风险极高。最新数据显示，政府效率部政绩存疑，官网显示其推动实现的撙节规模远低于之前宣称的550亿美元。路径三：砍军费美国2024财年军事预算高达8950亿美元，占全球军费总额的40%。若按特朗普“减半”设想，每年可释放超4000亿美元用于减税、基建或填补赤字。副防长萨勒塞斯直言：“我们必须停止在上届政府‘觉醒计划’上的浪费。” 尽管面临国会阻力（共和党主张增军费），但特朗普巧妙地将削减与“战略转型”捆绑。如果能成功拉拢中俄同步减支（如2月13日其提议的“美俄中东大各裁军50%”），既能缓解国际压力，又可释放资源回补国内。因此特朗普瞄准了国防预算。根据五角大楼本周三披露的备忘录，特朗普团队计划从2026财年起，每年从近万亿美元国防预算中“砍掉”500亿美元（约8%），重点保留He武器、边境安全、无人机等核心项目，而将矛头指向气候变化、多元化平权（DEI）等“低效开支”。

如果美国带头削减军费，将会引发资本市场一系列连锁反应：一是黄金拐点或受到影响。2022年俄乌冲突后，全球央行年度购金量突破1000吨，与军费增长高度正相关。若军费收缩，俄乌冲突缓解，各国央行购金需求将降低，尤其是紧邻乌克兰的波兰首当其冲，当前波兰是第一大购金国。具有天然避险属性的黄金可能出现拐点，2月14日金价闪跌已显露市场焦虑。二是经济格局调整。释放的4000亿美元若投入基建和制造业（如芯片补贴），可能加速产业链重组；但军工复合体的利益集团反抗不容小觑，洛克希德·马丁等军工巨头已开始游说国会。削减军费看似是解决赤字的“捷径”，实则是一场高风险博弈。短期看，它能缓解财政压力并为特朗普的政治议程输血；但长期而言，可能动摇美国军事根基，甚至重塑全球秩序。正如兰德智库警告：“节省每一美元军费的同时，都可能让对手获得十倍战略优势”。而对于全球市场而言，黄金、美元、军工股的剧烈波动，或许才刚刚开始。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

截至2025年2月17日，黄金市场呈现出显著的波动性。现货黄金价格在上周五经历了两个月来的最大单日跌幅后，周一早间反弹上涨，维持在每盎司2895美元附近。国内方面，黄金价格每克676.2元，国际金价为2899美元/盎司（约合675.9元/克）。瑞银（UBS）最新预测，黄金可能在2025年触及每盎司3,200美元以上，并在未来几年保持较高水平。高盛（Goldman Sachs）也上调了对年底金价的预期，从此前的2,890美元提高至3,100美元，主要原因是各国央行持续增加黄金储备。市场的强烈看涨情绪、投资者的低配情况以及官方部门需求的持续增长，是推动金价预期上调的关键因素。

自2025年初以来的短短六周内，黄金价格已经创下八次历史新高。分析师指出，错过了2024年短期买入机会的投资者可能会采取“逢低买入”的策略，更积极地抓住市场回调的机会。瑞银认为，流动性问题可能进一步放大黄金的涨势，使市场对实物需求的增长尤为敏感。技术分析黄金价格突破了对称三角形形态，显示出持续的看涨动能。根据Investopedia的报道，若金价突破2,900美元，可能会进一步上涨至3,098美元。关键支撑位包括2,790美元、2,530美元和2,430美元，投资者可在价格回调至这些水平时考虑买入机会。从K线图来看，黄金价格近期呈现出稳步上升的趋势。日线图上，多根阳线连续出现，显示出买方力量的强劲。移动平均线系统（如50日和200日均线）也呈现多头排列，进一步巩固了上行趋势。然而，投资者应关注相对强弱指标（RSI）等超买信号，以防范短期回调风险。

基本面因素基本面因素同样支撑金价上涨。全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及通胀预期的上升，促使投资者寻求黄金等避险资产。各国央行，特别是中国，持续增加黄金储备，进一步推高了市场需求。目前，国际局势尤其值得关注。美俄会谈即将在沙特举行，旨在探索乌克兰局势的潜在解决方案。特朗普政府希望通过与普京的谈判达成和平协议，并推动欧洲承担更多防务责任。这一谈判的进展可能影响市场情绪，若会谈取得突破，可能导致避险需求下降，从而短期内对金价产生压力。然而，市场对全球政治局势仍充满不确定性，黄金的长期吸引力依旧强劲。与黄金相关的投资产品近期价格

• SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)：当前价格为266.29美元，较前一交易日下跌4.05美元（约1.5%）。
• iShares Gold Trust (IAU)：当前价格为54.46美元，较前一交易日下跌0.825美元（约1.5%）。
• Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)：当前价格为17.94美元，较前一交易日下跌0.5美元（约2.7%）。
• Newmont Corp (NEM)：当前价格为46.54美元，较前一交易日下跌1.21美元（约2.5%）。

以上价格截至2025年2月15日，市场行情瞬息万变，投资者应及时关注最新数据。结论黄金市场在多重利好因素的推动下，展现出强劲的上涨势头。投资者应密切关注技术指标和基本面变化，制定适当的投资策略，以在波动的市场中把握机遇。随着美俄会谈的推进，市场避险情绪可能受到影响，但在全球央行购金需求强劲、市场流动性较低以及投资者持续追逐避险资产的背景下，黄金仍然具备长期投资价值。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Sylvia Qin | GO Markets 悉尼中文部