市场资讯及洞察
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上周我们看到美联储在十月的利率决议一如市场预期的进行了25个基点的降息操作,在决议公布后全球的金融市场波动较为平淡;但是重点集中在鲍威尔和记者在一些尖锐问题上的看法和一些话外音当中。利率决议重要信息总结:预期管理方面:
- 全面否认12月必定降息的预期,美联储官员内部存在分歧
 - 利率已经接近中性利率,在这个观点上相较于九月来说有所提升
 - 在风险平衡方面表示通胀问题暂时比就业问题影响要大
 
就业数据方面:
- 就是市场放缓,但是病危显著恶化
 - 将主要因素归功于劳动力供给下降
 
通胀
- 9月CPI表现温和,剔除关税核心PCE 2.3-2.4%
 - 服务通胀(除住房)“横盘”,将逐步回落
 
资产负债表
- 将在12月1日起停止缩表,已达“充裕储备”
 - 未来再投资短期美债,缩短久期
 - 准备金将随现金增长自然下降,但“不会太久”
 
其他方面答记者问:
- AI投资对利率不敏感,对AI泡沫化表示不是工作重点
 - 车贷和商业地产的次级贷违约局部、可控,未系统性蔓延
 - 银行资本十分充足,整体金融体系稳健,压力测试并无风险
 
对鲍威尔讲话的数据交叉验证尽管从鲍威尔本次的利率决议中我们发现市场并没有过度敏感,甚至在鲍威尔口中一切欣欣向荣,数据空窗期只给美联储的决策带来了小部分影响,但是并不会对整体经济走势带来大的逆转,所以全球市场并未表现出任何的过度恐慌和逆向交易,在短暂波动中便产生了震荡的收敛,但是事实也许并无那么乐观。就业方面:根据已知数据,美国现阶段就业“稳固”:失业4.3%(BLS数据),随后陷入了数据真空期,而我们也可以从图表中看到,失业率数据在2025年整体上呈现上升态势,也许现在的真空隐藏了数据中最会促使市场衰退恐慌的一面,而鲍威尔通过一句整体稳健维持市场对美联储决策方向的信心;恰巧利用了该真空期对市场进行议论新的预期管理。

通胀方面:如果对美国通胀进行长期的观测会看到实际上美国通胀水平已从疫情期间回归常态,而逐渐在现水平出现下行放缓的迹象,尽管鲍威尔提及了关税可能带来的影响,但是随后中美会谈对关税带来的通胀影响实际上是多方利好,从通胀角度看,美联储的压力将会逐步缩减,但是也从长期中可以关注为何鲍威尔会重点强调中性利率的攀升,而这也会对市场对长期的利率预期产生一定程度的影响。

美国现在的次级贷问题:近期市场十分关注的二手车暴雷事件在两周前引起了一波小范围的恐慌,本次利率决议记者也就该问题对鲍威尔进行了相关问答,美联储主席在该话题上表现得非常含糊粉饰太平,基本上话语中处处透露本次事件影响范围较小,不会带来较大范围的扩散和金融市场的整体压力,但是实际数据并非如此支持。

从真实数据上看多重数据显示房地产由于受到了08年的教训影响,整体违约率水平处于低位看起来并不存在大范围暴雷的潜在危机,但是二手车和商业地产确实实打实的在数据上已经亮起了黄灯。如果接下来出现中等银行的挤兑和暴雷那将是对金融系统带来真正意义上的考验。结论来看:从近期中美更新合作协议,降低关税来看,美国的通胀压力或将不会过度挤压美联储后续的政策空间,但是美国的失业率真空也许会在公布后给美国带来一定程度的惊吓,而鲍威尔尽管言辞已经极其谨慎仍然在次级贷近期的问题上表态过于乐观,各类型数据并不支持该市场不存在隐患的定论,对于风险偏好类的投资,也许赛道的拥挤或将拱火危机进行进一步发酵,所以在投资偏好和风险均摊上投资者应进行更进一步的风险管理。
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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Dicker Data is an Australian-owned and operated, ASX-listed technology hardware, software and cloud distributor. They were founded in 1978. As a distributor, they sell exclusively to a valued partner base of over 5,500 resellers.
Dicker Data distributes a wide portfolio of products from the world’s leading technology vendors. Dicker Data have successfully navigated the end of governmental business stimulus and the impact of a global semiconductor chip shortage to post a net profit of $73.6 million, which is an increase of 29%. Sales figures increased 24% to $2.48 billion for the 2021 calendar year.
Dicker Data declared a final dividend of 15 cents (USD), 100% flanked, on total earnings of 42.6 cents per share. FY21 Results Highlights The company believes that shortages are a part of the computer business and have always planned around it. They identify the software sector to be its highest growth opportunity as dynamic workplaces, which allow employees to work from home, are currently in high demand.
They also identify that there will be a strong demand for audio-visual equipment, such as large format displays for meeting rooms, as workplaces welcome back employees to the offices. The company’s debt over the period has almost doubled to $230.2 million after they have announced debt funded deals to acquire its rival IT distributor, Exceed, for $68 million. They have also recently acquired Hills Ltd’s Security and Information Technology business for $20 million last month.
The company also has their sights on another acquisition in the future, they have been in talks with a few bankers to help finance a potential acquisition of a rival US-based IT distributor, Ingram Micro. Ingram Micro was sold to US private equity group Platinum Equity for $7.2 billion (USD) in July 2021. Prior to this, HNA Group acquired the business for around $6 billion (USD) in 2016.
Co-founder David Dicker stated that his company would have acquired Ingram Micro for $7 billion (USD) if they had been able to raise the capital. Dicker Data share value is slowly trending up since February’s acquisition. However, due to the Russia and Ukraine conflict, the ASX 200 index is currently dropping in value and this can trickle down to companies such as Dicker Data.
Overall, Dicker Data is currently in a growth state and is looking to acquire companies that would help increase the company’s value and offerings to its many clients. They aim to use debt to fund the acquisitions and then issue shares to pay down the debt once the acquisition is successful. The acquisitions have helped the company achieve a profitable year as evident in the earnings report.
With the acquisition target of Ingram Micro, this can be an exciting opportunity to track the progress from start to finish. If you would like to take this opportunity to invest in Dicker Data and don’t already have a trading account, you can register for a Shares account at GO Markets. Sources: ASX, TradingView, AFR.


A sudden rapid increase in commodity prices, propelled by supply concerns stemming from the Russia and Ukraine conflict, has brought about inflationary pressure and moved future inflation expectation. The increase has also pushed indices into a bear market and caused some volatility in global equities. Nickel, European gas and wheat have all hit record highs on Monday.
Copper, Brent crude oil, aluminium and thermal coal are currently sitting at their highest levels in years. The commodities rally has stirred up fears that inflationary pressures will persist as the price increase works its way through the supply chain and slows down economic growth. The Australian 10-year break-even rate is sitting at 2.48%, its highest level since 2014.
The US 10-year break-even rate increased to 2.86% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2005. The German 10-year break-even rate hit a record high of 2.62%. Break-even rates represent the difference between a nominal bond and an inflation-linked bond of the same maturity, implying the average rate of inflation over a given period of time.
The spike in these rates suggests that the bond market is expecting inflation to be far more persistent than central banks and strategists have been expecting. The fear of Russian energy sanctions has led to heavy selling in the global equity markets. The US Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany DAX index have slipped into bear markets as shown from the chart above.
The EU50 and DAX are currently down 20% since their peaks in mid-January. The spike in break-even rates comes after the surge in the price of energy as Brent crude has reached a high of $136 USD a barrel on Monday. This rapid increase in the cost of energy, namely the Brent Oil, is currently making its way through to our local petrol pumps.
As the national average petrol price has climbed to 1.839 per litre. Other commodity prices are also beginning to break into new territory and are likely to drive up the cost of goods further down the supply chain. Nickel recently hit a record high of over $60,000 USD a tonne, as supply risks sparked a short squeeze.
About 7 per cent of the world’s nickel is produced in Russia, with the metal being used to produce stainless steel. It is also a major component of lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric vehicles. The steady surge in commodity prices and their associated inflation risk has created a dilemma for central banks across the world.
Central banks are trying to manage inflation without curbing growth. All in all, commodity prices are currently on the rise as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Their prices are now on most investors’ watchlists, as it can affect other markets such as Forex and Indices.
If you would like to take this opportunity to invest and do not yet have a trading account, you can open a GO Markets CFD trading account. Source: GO Markets MT5, TradingView, Globalpetrolprices, AFR


Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) released its financial results for Q2 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The company reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations at $808.325 million for Q2 vs. $873.82 million expected. Coinbase reported a loss per share of -$4.98 per share vs. -$2.47 loss per share expected. ''Q2 was a test of durability for crypto companies and a complex quarter overall.
Dramatic market movements shifted user behaviour and trading volume, which impacted transaction revenue, but also highlighted the strength of our risk management program. We are focusing on our top business priorities and more tightly managing expenses.'' ''The decline in crypto asset prices significantly impacted our Q2 financial results, which were consistent with the outlook provided in May. Net revenue was $803 million, down 31% compared to Q1, driven by lower trading volume.
Total operating expenses were $1.9 billion, up 8% compared to Q1. Net loss was $1.1 billion and was heavily impacted by non-cash impairment charges. Absent non-cash impairment charges, net loss would have been $647 million.
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $151 million,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) chart Share price of Coinbase was down by 10.55% on Tuesday, trading $87.49 a share. The stock fell further in after-hours following the release of the latest financial results, down by around 3%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +61.65% 3 months +20.13% Year-to-date -65.26% 1 year -67.49% Coinbase price targets Citigroup $105 DA Davidson $90 Mizuho $42 JMP Securities $205 Atlantic Equities $54 Goldman Sachs $45 JP Morgan $68 Coinbase Global Inc. is the 754 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $22.96 billion. You can trade Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Coinbase Global Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Fears of slowing growth and weak Chinese data have forced China to ramp up its efforts to stimulate its economy and reassure investors: Record $83 billion injection: China injected a large amount of money in its economy. $83 billion was placed in the country’s financial system to avoid a cash crunch that would add further pressure to an “already” weakening economy. Spending Plans: Amid a raft of measures, China has approved a whopping $125bn of new rail projects over the past month. China is increasing its approvals for new projects and fiscal spending to counteract the slowdown.
Tax Cuts: China has put forward plans for the private sector and small business and is turning to tax cuts as a primary defence for its slowing economy. As uncertainties around tariffs continue, China is helping private companies and small business to obtain financing and increasing consumer spending. As of writing, the GDP (YoY) came at 6.4% from 6.5%, and we expect China’s economy to weaken in the lower range of the 6% mark amid the current external and domestic challenges.
Trade tensions have shaken business and consumer confidence and have further slowed economic growth. Even though there is more optimism on trade talks and higher chances of a truce deal, we expect trade negotiations to be bumpy and lengthy. The real economic implications may become more apparent in the coming months, and this can weigh on risk sentiment.
We expect to continue observing more actions from China during the year. The weak data is also giving room for policymakers to put forward more growth-supportive measures in the near term to stimulate growth and bring stability to its economy. So far, the stimulus actions coupled with positive trade talks helped the Chinese Yuan and the Shanghai Index to climb higher.
After a bruising year, the Index rose by more than 130 points since the beginning of the year.


Buying opportunity on the GBPAUD A short/medium term trading opportunity has arisen on the GBPAUD. The Pound has been weakening after the Bank of England came out last week and forecast that the economy would fall into a 15 month recession later this year. Whilst the bearish sentiment was somewhat of shock it was not totally unexpected.
On the back of this news, the Pound has been falling against most other strong currencies including the USD and the CHF. The most attractive trading opportunity comes in the form of the GBPAUD pair. The AUD has seen some strength on the back of the Chinese CPI figures that came in better than expected.
The AUD, is impacted heavily by the price of commodities. Therefore, it is important to consider the upcoming volatility around the price of commodities. Ultimately, the current economic environment has led to a situation where the GBPAUD is testing recent support zones.
Technical Analysis Using multiple time frame analysis, some interesting patterns have been formed in this pair. Looking at the longest time frame first, the monthly chart it can be seen to break down out of the symmetrical triangle that has been in a consolidation since 2014. This is obviously quite a bearish sign and points to taking a short position.
On the contrary, it is still possible that the price will try and reclaim the triangle. On the weekly chart, the pair is testing a long term support level of 1.72/1.73 AUD. This has remained steady as a support since 2017.
Whilst the price is setting near this level and based on previous levels of structure and support, it is likely that the price will bounce to the top of the range. However it would be best to wait until there is strong buying to indicate a reversal. On the daily chart, the range is even more pronounced and shows that the price has been trading in the range.
The range also provides a short term target of 1.7880 AUD as the next target of resistance. Until a clear break of the range is established buying at the bottom, and selling at the top provides a good risk reward trading strategy.


Beyond Meat Inc. reported their latest financial results for Q4 2021 after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US plant-based meat substitute producer company fell short of analyst expectations for the last quarter, sending the stock price lower in the after-market hours. The company reported revenue of $100.678 million in Q4 (decrease of 1.2% year-over-year) vs. $101.044 million expected.
Loss per share reported at -$1.27 a share, way above analyst forecast -$0.70 a share. Net revenue for 2021 at $464.7 million – an increase of 14.2% year-over-year. "In 2021 we saw strong growth in our international channel net revenues, as well as sporadic yet promising signs of a resumption of growth in U.S. foodservice channel net revenues as COVID-19 variants peaked and declined. These gains, however, were dampened by what we believe to be a temporary disruption in U.S. retail growth, for our brand and the broader category.
Despite the variability and challenges of the year, we did not deviate from building the foundation for our long-term growth. The investments we made in our team, infrastructure, and capabilities across the U.S., EU, and China, as well as extensive product scaling activities for key strategic partners, weighed heavily on operating expenses and gross margin during a fourth quarter and year that were already impacted by lower than expected volumes. However, we believe these investments will be instrumental in driving our long-term growth," Ethan Brown, Beyond Meat CEO said in a statement following the latest financial results from the company. "As we begin 2022, we are pleased with the progress we are making against our long-term strategy, such as the number of tests and core menu placements recently announced by our global QSR partners.
Though we will continue to invest during 2022, we expect to substantially moderate the growth of our operating expenses as we leverage the building blocks we now have in place to serve our customers, consumers, and markets — bringing forward our exciting and expansive future one delicious serving at a time," Brown added. Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) chart (Weekly) Shares of Beyond Meat were up by 3.38% on Thursday at $48.64. However, the stock fell sharply in the after-hours – down by around 10%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -13.37% 3 Month: -35.14% Year-to-date: -24.80% 1 Year: -65.91% Beyond Meat Inc. is the 2973 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $3.10 billion. You can trade Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Beyond Meat Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap