市场资讯及洞察
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韩国银行(Bank of Korea, BOK)货币政策委员会于2026年1月15日决定:将韩国银行基准利率维持在2.50%,并在同一公开材料中载明该决定获得一致通过。韩国银行在决议公告中同时表示:鉴于通胀预计将逐步稳定、经济增长持续改善、且金融稳定风险仍然存在,委员会判断在评估国内外政策环境变化的同时,维持当前利率水平是适当的。
BOK对主要经济体的外部环境进一步给出方向性描述:BOK认为美国经济预计将维持稳健增长,并将支撑因素描述为人工智能领域投资增加以及减税政策;同时提到关税影响较最初预期更不显著。BOK还表示欧元区预计将呈现较为有利的增长趋势,影响因素包括财政支出扩张与相对宽松的金融条件。对中国,BOK表示由于出口转弱,中国经济预计将较上年放缓,但在提振内需措施支撑下,放缓速度可能相对温和。
在全球金融市场方面,BOK提到,主要经济体对进一步降息的预期走弱叠加对财政稳健性的担忧,推动长期政府债券收益率上升。BOK同时描述美元汇率阶段性走弱后又转强,影响因素包括好于预期的美国经济指标以及股市风险偏好变化;股票价格则在对企业盈利改善预期的带动下继续上行。BOK指出,尽管美国关税政策对全球经济造成影响,全球经济仍预计将维持温和增长。BOK同时将支撑因素表述为主要经济体的扩张性财政政策以及持续的人工智能相关投资。
在国内经济部分,BOK指出,尽管建筑投资仍显疲弱,韩国经济增长仍延续改善趋势,支撑因素包括消费持续恢复以及出口持续增长。BOK提到就业人数总体增加持续,且服务业是重要带动来源。对于前景,BOK表示在半导体行业强劲表现支撑下,出口预计仍将保持有利;国内需求也预计将延续改善趋势,其支撑因素包括消费持续恢复以及建筑投资疲弱程度缓解。BOK并写明当年增长率预计与11月预测的1.8%大体一致,同时指出与半导体行业上行趋势加速、主要经济体增长好于预期相关的上行风险有所增加。BOK认为第四季度增长较上年第三季度强劲增长所带来的基数效应影响而有所走弱,但总体仍维持“潜在改善趋势”的判断。BOK同时指出复苏呈“K形”特征,即信息技术(IT)部门表现强劲与非IT部门持续疲弱并存,从而在行业之间形成较大差异。
在通胀方面,BOK披露2025年12月消费者价格通胀小幅回落至2.3%,并将其原因描述为农畜水产品价格涨幅放缓,尽管石油产品价格涨幅加快。剔除食品与能源后的核心通胀为2.0%,与前月持平,并指出公众短期通胀预期为2.6%,同样与前月持平。对未来通胀路径,BOK表示在全球油价相对稳定的支撑下,通胀预计将逐步下降至2%水平,但较高的汇率水平可能对通胀形成上行压力。BOK还写明当年总体通胀与核心通胀预计与11月预测大体一致,分别为2.1%与2.0%。
在金融与外汇市场方面,BOK描述韩元兑美元汇率在外汇市场稳定化措施后出现明显下行,但随后又回升至1400韩元中后段区间,并将驱动因素列为美元走强、日元走弱、地缘政治风险上升以及居民持续海外投资等。BOK同时提到,由于市场对降息预期走弱,韩国国债收益率显著上升,但之后有所回落;股市则在对半导体等主要行业盈利改善预期的带动下大幅上涨。BOK在同一段落中提到家庭贷款增速放缓趋势延续,主要与住房相关贷款增幅放缓及其他贷款净偿还有关;同时指出首尔及周边地区房价仍以较快速度上涨。BOK强调需要持续关注外汇与住房市场变化。BOK提到汇率在年末稳定化措施后曾对美元下跌超过40韩元,但本年度又回到1400韩元中后段区间,因此需要高度警惕。BOK将相关背景归因于美元走强、日元走弱以及伊朗与委内瑞拉相关事件引发的地缘政治风险上升等多因素组合,并提到海外投资与外汇供需失衡因素仍在。BOK同时提示需要警惕家庭债务相关风险,并提到首尔房价上涨仍处于高位,且价格外溢效应在部分非监管地区显现。
在政策框架表述方面,BOK表示其将以中期稳定通胀于目标水平为目标开展货币政策,在监测经济增长的同时关注金融稳定。BOK在政策决定中指出,国内经济继续处于改善增长趋势,上行风险有所增加;通胀预计逐步下降,但较高汇率仍是通胀上行风险来源之一;金融稳定风险仍与首尔及周边房价、家庭债务以及汇率波动加剧相关。基于这些因素,BOK表示将一边支持经济增长恢复,一边密切监测国内外政策条件变化及其对通胀与金融稳定的影响,并据此作出政策决定。
此外,BOK在开场陈述中还披露了与货币政策决定同日的另一项决定:BOK决定将针对低信用个体工商户与中小企业的临时特别支持项目延长六个月,并说明该决定考虑了尽管经济增长持续改善,但中小企业与地区经济复苏仍相对滞后的情况。
相关官方文件和详细数据请参考:
韩国银行官方网站:https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/main/main.do
BOK 2026年1月15日《货币政策决定 + 行长开场陈述》:
https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?nttId=10095713&menuNo=400423&relate=Y&depth=400423&programType=newsDataEng
BOK 2026年1月15日《通货政策方向/决议文》:
https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/bbs/P0000559/view.do?nttId=10095711&menuNo=200690
BOK 2025年11月《经济展望(Economic Outlook)》:
https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?nttId=10094798&menuNo=400069
韩国统计局(Statistics Korea, KOSIS):https://kostat.go.kr/anse/
免责声明:本文内容仅为一般性建议,未考虑任何个人的具体投资目标、财务状况或特定需求,不构成任何形式的个人财务建议、投资建议、税务建议、法律建议或任何金融产品推荐等。本文陈述的信息基于韩国银行(BOK)等公开渠道资料。本文可能包含对市场机制与潜在情景的讨论,但不构成对未来市场走向、经济表现、投资回报或政策变化的承诺或保证。过往表现和历史数据不代表未来结果。所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失全部本金,外汇、差价合约(CFD)、衍生品等杠杆类产品具有高风险特性,可能导致快速且重大的损失,市场价格可能因各种因素剧烈波动。本文引用的信息来源于公开渠道,虽已尽力确保准确性,但不对信息的完全准确性、完整性、及时性或适用性作出任何明示或暗示的保证,信息可能存在延迟、需要更正,或因市场和政策环境快速变化而不再适用于当前情况。在做出任何投资或财务决策前,您应当仔细考虑自身的财务状况、投资目标和风险承受能力,进行适当性评估以确保相关产品或策略符合您的需求,并咨询持有澳大利亚金融服务牌照(AFSL)的财务顾问、税务专业人士或法律顾问,同时了解并遵守您所在司法管辖区的相关法律法规。本文提及的任何第三方机构、产品或服务不构成推荐或认可,相关商标、名称归其合法所有者。在法律允许的最大范围内,作者及相关方对因使用、依赖或无法使用本文信息而导致的任何直接、间接、附带、特殊或后果性损失不承担任何责任。投资有风险,决策需谨慎。

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - R Rally A rally refers to the price of an asset undergoing sustained upward momentum over a period of time. Range Range is the difference between a market’s lowest and highest point over a specified period of time. If a market has a wide range during a given period this is an indication of high volatility, and may be utilized in certain trading strategies.
Rate-of-return ROR, Rate-of-return, is the profit or loss of an investment over a given period. ROR is expressed as a percentage, with a positive ROR reflecting that an investment has returned a profit, while a negative ROR means a loss. Ratio spread Ratio spread options trading strategy where a trader will hold an unequal number of buy and sell positions on a single underlying asset at the same time.
Reserves Reserves are the liquid assets set aside for future use by a trader. Reserves can be held in the form of commodities, such as gold, but usually traders will keep cash as it is more immediately accessible. Resistance level Resistance level is the price at which an assets upward price trajectory is hindered by an overwhelming demand to sell the asset.
When an asset appears to be nearing a resistance level, traders may close their position in order to take profit, rather than risk the price falling to a lower price. Reversal (Trend reversal) A reversal is a change of direction in the price movement of an asset, e.g. when an upward trend becomes a downward trend, or vice versa. Rights issue When a company offers existing shareholders the opportunity to buy additional shares for a discounted price, this is referred to as a Rights issue.
The discounted price will usually only be available for a brief period, before returning to the normal price. Learn more about Rights issues Risk management Risk management refers to a variety of processes or strategies, the ultimate goal of which is to identify the potential risk of investments and mitigate potential losses. Risks In trading, "risk" refers to any potential event or circumstance in which and investment can lose money.
Regulatory News Service (UK) The RNS is responsible for disseminating information on behalf of UK publicly listed companies. The RNS operates as part of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and provides companies with information to help them to meet their regulatory disclosure obligations. ROCE (Return on capital employed) ROCE refers to a long-term profitability ratio which measures how effectively capital is used by a company, e.g. profit generated for each each dollar used.
Rollover A rollover refers to keeping a position open beyond its expiry date. Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI is a tool used in technical analysis to gauge whether an asset is potentially overbought or oversold, and to predict if a rally or correction may be imminent. Learn more about RSI.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Q Quantitative easing An economic monetary policy intended to lower interest rates and increase money supply can be defined as Quantitative easing (QE). It saw an increase in profile and use after the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession. Quote currency The second currency listed in a forex pair is termed as the quote currency.
It is also known as the counter currency. Quote The price at which an asset was last traded, or the price at which it can be currently bought or sold is defined as Quote

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - O OCO (one cancels the other) OCO allows many orders to be placed at once. Whichever order is filled first will cancel the other automatically. OCO can be used to close an existing position or take advantage of market volatility.
Learn more about OCO Off book trades An "off-book" trade refers to trading shares outside of an exchange or regulated body. Off-book traders are usually executed via the over-the-counter (OTC) market, and made directly between two parties. Offer The term "offer" describes when one trader expresses an intention to buy a financial instrument or asset from another trader.
On exchange On exchange refers to a trade is taking place directly on an order book. On-balance volume (OBV) On-balance volume is a method of technical analysis where traders make predictions about an asset's future price movements based on its previous trading volume. OBV is regularly used in shares trading as volume has a large influence how a share price moves.
OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, Venezuela. Other countries that have since joined OPEC since include the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of the Congo and Ecuador. Learn more about OPEC Open (Market) The market "open" can refer to the daily opening of an exchange Open (order/position) An open order refers to an outstanding trading order/position that has not yet been filled/closed.
When a trade is executed, or a position closed, the profits and losses a are realised and the trade is no longer open. Option Options are a type of derivative specifically linked to an underlying asset. The Buyer of an option has the choice of whether or not to receive futures relating to an asset at a predetermined price, volume and expiry date.
Order An "order" is a request sent to a broker or trading platform instructing them to execute a particular trade. OTC trade (Over the Counter) An OTC trade is an agreement between two parties, not executed through an exchange. This allows increased flexibility compared to trading on the market, as contractual terms can be negotiated directly between the two parties.
Overexposure Overexposure refers to a trader taking on too much risk. A typical instance of this is when a trader invests too much capital in a single position or market; putting the trader in the position where an unfavorable movement of a single instrument can result in dramatic losses.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - P Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) A company's P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the company’s market value per share by its earnings per share, and is a method for measuring a company’s value. Learn more about P/E ratios Learn more about P/E red flags Parent company Parent company refers to the entity which has a majority or controlling interest in another company, giving it the right to control the subsidiary’s operations. Pip A 'pip' is a measurement of movement in Forex trading; it is the smallest amount that a currency can change.
Pip value The pip value is the value attributed to a single pip move in a Forex (FX) trade. Purchasing managers index (PMI) PMI is an indicator of the health of a particular sector within an economy. Learn more about PMI Portfolio (Investment portfolio) Portfolio refers to the collection of assets held by a trader or trading entity, this can include shares, commodities, bonds, derivatives etc.
Position "Position" refers to an open trade, held by a trader, that is able to incur a profit or loss. Once a trade has been closer or canceled, the trader no longer holds that position. The actual profit or loss of a trade is not realised until the position has been closed.
Position Sizing Learn more about Position Sizing. Power of attorney (POA) Power of attorney gives another person or entity legal authority to act on your behalf. In trading, this means access to financial resources, trading accounts, the ability to open or close trading positions etc.
If POA is given to a legal entity, representatives within that entity authorized to act on your behalf will be listed specifically. Profit and loss (P&L) A profit and loss statement is a financial report summarizing a company’s gross revenue, expenses and profit. It provides traders and investors with a snapshot of how well a company is operating and it's potential to generate profit.
Pullback A pullback is a temporary dip an asset’s otherwise current trend. Not to be confused with a reversal, which is a longer term switch in an assets (previously) trending direction. Put Option A 'Put Options' is a contract giving a trader the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific amount of an underlying contract, at a specific price, at a specific time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - N Net change Net change refers to the difference between the closing price of the current trading session and the closing price of the previous trading session. This can be positive or negative, and simply represents whether a market is up or down compared to the previous day. Net income Net income is the total amount of profit made by an organization after all expenses, depreciation, amortization, interest, taxes etc. are deducted from it's gross income.
NIKKEI The NIKKEI index is the leading 225 stocks traded on Tokyo's Stock Exchange. Non-current assets Non-current assets are company’s long-term investments of which the full value will not be realized during the current accounting year, such as land holdings. Non-farm payrolls Non-farm payrolls gives monthly statistics describing number of people who are employed in construction, manufacturing and goods companies in the US.
Also referred to as NFP's. Learn more about Non-farm payrolls

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - M Macro-based A trading strategy driven by macroeconomic factors. Maintenance margin Also known as the "variation margin", the maintenance margin is the amount of funds that must be available to keep a margin trade open. Margin call A margin call is when a broker requests an increase maintenance margin from a trader, in order to keep a leveraged trade open.
A margin call occurs when the percentage of an investor’s equity in falls below the broker’s required amount; this occurs after a position decreases significantly enough in value. Margin calls are charged to limit exposure to the participants, and mitigate risk to the broker. Margin Margin is the amount of funds required to open and maintain a leveraged position. e.g. a $500,000 position leveraged at 500:1 would required $1,000 in funds from the trader.
Margin deposit A margin deposit is the amount a trader needs to put up in order to open a leveraged position. This can also be referred to as the initial margin, or simply as the deposit Market capitalisation A companies market capitalisation is the total market value of the company’s shares on the market. Market capitalisation, or "market cap", is simple way for investors to gauge a company’s size, which can factor into their investment strategy.
Market data Market data refers to live streaming of trade-related data. This information can include market volume, price, bid and ask quotes and more. Marketing data is available on virtually all markets including commodities, shares, indices, FX etc.
Learn more about Market data releases Market maker A market maker is an trader that buys and sells large amounts of a particular asset in order to facilitate liquidity. A maker can institution or individual. Market order A market order is an instruction to a broker from the trader to execute a trade immediately at the current best available price.
This can be a 'buy' or 'sell'. Merger A merger is when two or more companies combine to become a single larger entity. This typically has significant financial implications and effect on the value of the participating companies stock value.
A promising merger will usually resulting in an increase in share prices. Learn more about Mergers MetaTrader MetaTrader is an popular online trading platform used for to trade a wide variety of instruments. MetaTrader 4 and Metatrader 5 versions are available with different tools and tradable assets.
Monte Carlo "Monte Carlo" refers to a method of measuring risk by developing a modelling and predicting future investment prices. This is then used to predict the worst-case loss scenario of an investment. Moving average convergence/divergence The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is a technical indicator which aims to identify changes in a share price's momentum.
The MACD helps traders identify possible opportunities around support and resistance levels by collecting data from different moving averages. Learn more about the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD). Moving average Often abbreviated to "MA", the moving average is a common indicator in technical analysis, used to examine price movements while reducing the impact of random spikes in an assets price.
Learn more about Moving Averages Multilateral trading facilities MTFs offer investment firms and traders an alternative to traditional exchanges. MTFs typically allow trade of a wider variety markets and equity products, including assets which may not have an official market. Multiplier effect Multiplier effect describes the impact that changes in monetary supply can have on economic activity.
When an government (or potentially company or individual) spends significant money it has a trickle-down effect the businesses and the economy which can have a much wider impact than the initial action.