市场资讯及洞察

周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。



Qantas Airways Limited (QAN:ASX) is the flagship carrier of Australia and the country's largest airline by fleet size. The company has had a resurgence in 2022 and the share price has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic. The “Flying Kangaroo” as it’s known throughout the industry, said that it would report an underlying pre-tax profit of up to A$1.3bn (US$815mn) in the six months to December, doubling market estimates, as strong demand for flights offsets higher fuel costs and inflation.
The improved financial performance has come from the company transferring the increased costs via increased fairs. The share price for the airline soared to $5.83, its highest level since November 2021, on the back of the strong profit forecast. Qantas’s pre-pandemic share price was sitting at $7.35 AUD and saw its financial performance suffer with 3 consecutive years of more than A$1bn losses because of pandemic restrictions and lost A$25bn of revenue during the period.
Net debt, which spiralled to almost A$6.5bn during the pandemic, is expected to fall to between A$3.2bn and A$3.4bn by the end of the year, well below the airline’s A$3.9bn target range. Alan Joyce, Chief Executive gave a promising statement on the company’s performance advising, “It’s been a really challenging time for the national carrier, but today’s announcement shows how far we’ve come. Since August, we’ve seen a big improvement in our operational performance and an acceleration in our financial performance.” The report in profits has come too late for investors to receive a final dividend this year, with the company deciding not to reverse its decision to halt dividend payments.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for investors, as Alan Joyce has led a A$400mn share buyback this year. Share buybacks do not put cash in the hands of investors as a dividend does. However, they do support shareholders by reducing the overall share count.
This tends to boost the share price, given that under the laws of supply and demand, less supply leads to a rise in price. If you are interested in venturing into trading stocks, FX or commodities, you can create access to one of our MetaTrader 5 trading CFD platforms with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers and to get started. Sources: https://www.ft.com/, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://www.fool.com.au/


Oracle Corporation reported its fiscal 2022 third quarter financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $10.513 billion vs. $10.506 billion expected. Earnings per share at $1.13 per share, falling short of analyst estimate of $1.18 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of outstanding common stock "In Q3, Oracle delivered over 7% constant currency revenue growth—our highest quarterly organic revenue growth rate since we began our transition to the cloud," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz following the latest results. "This strong top line growth was coupled with a solid non-GAAP constant currency operating profit growth of 4%, but the big story is that our overall revenue growth is being driven by both our rapidly growing Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications businesses. Q3 Cloud Infrastructure revenue was up 47% in constant currency. Q3 Cloud Applications growth was led by Fusion ERP, which was up 35% in constant currency and NetSuite ERP which was up 29% in constant currency.
Total Cloud revenue which includes Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications is now over $11 billion a year," Catz added. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Shares of Oracle were little changed at the end of trading on Thursday, up by 0.84% at $76.70 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -6.22% 3 Month: -13.53% Year-to-date: -11.98% 1 Year: +13.87% Oracle is the 49 th largest company in the world with total market cap of $204.85 billion.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be able to provide 2.5 million barrels a day to the global supply.
The drop has also coincided with a rebound in equities as the possibility that central banks may soften their aggressive interest-raising regime has entered the market. Further industry data released from the USA outlining their Crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday, may also impact the price in the short term. The recent drop has pushed the price of both Crude and WTI to 6-month lows not seen since before the Russia and Ukraine crises.
On the daily chart, both Brent and WTI are sitting on areas of support between $85-$93 and $83-$90 respectively. The price for both Brent and WTI has also dipped below the 200-day moving average indicating a medium-term bearish shift. The question remains, is this just a retracement, or a reversal of exhaustion?
Due to the prices being resting near their area of support and the RSI consolidating between 25-45, this does indicate a possible bounce. If the RSI can break above the recent consolidation/range or 45 and the general price of the commodity can bounce off its support, there may be the potential for buying opportunities. With any trade and especially those involving commodities, there are always external risks to consider that may invalidate the current trading strategy.
For instance, if inflation becomes less of an issue and central banks begin to taper their aggressiveness in fighting inflation, the price of oil may begin to slip. Therefore, this is a trade that can in which the utilisation of both technical and fundamental analysis can be done.


NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for February on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 6,131 cars last month – an increase of 9.9% year-over-year. The deliveries in February consisted of: 1,084 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 3,309 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 1,738 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 182,853 electric vehicles as of 28 th February, 2022.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Shares of NIO were down by 4.25% at the end of the trading day on Tuesday at $21.87 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -11.96% 3 Month: -44.11% Year-to-date: -30.97% 1 Year: -49.48% NIO is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $34.78 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: NIO Inc., CompaniesMarketCap


Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported it latest financial numbers before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The pharmaceutical company reported results that beat Wall Street estimates, sending the stock price higher on the day. Total revenue reported at $7.211 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $6.798 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $11.29 per share vs. estimate of $9.96 per share. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna commented on the last year’s performance following the latest results: "In 2021, we delivered 807 million doses with approximately 25% of those doses going to low- and middle-income countries, and we will continue to scale in 2022 to help end the COVID-19 pandemic. Moderna has experienced exponential growth and we have more than doubled the size of our team over the last year with a global team of 3,000.
We also have announced plans to scale to 21 commercial subsidiaries across the world, including four new locations in Asia and six new locations in Europe. We continue to expand and advance our industry-leading mRNA pipeline with 44 programs in development. We look forward to clinical readouts from our therapeutics development candidates later in 2022 in rare genetic diseases and oncology.
We are entering 2022 with a remarkable team and strategic priorities to continue advancing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics to impact human health." Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart (Weekly) Share price of Moderna surged by over 10% during Thursday, trading at $147.53 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: +0.18% 3 Month: -45.54% Year-to-date: -41.38% 1 Year: +0.34% Moderna Inc. is the 274 th largest company in the world and 21 st largest pharmaceutical company with a total market cap of $59.54 billion. You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $5.497 billion in Q2, beating analyst estimate of $5.267 billion. Earnings per share reported at $2.56 per share vs. $2.36 per share expected. ''We had strong revenue and earnings growth again this quarter, as overall consumer spending remained robust and cross-border volumes grew 58% versus year ago,'' Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard said in a press release following the results. ''Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly impact overall consumer spending but we will continue to monitor this closely.
We have a well-diversified business model and the demonstrated ability to deliver strong operating margins through up and down cycles,'' Miebach concluded. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) chart Shares of MasterCard were trading higher on Thursday after beating Wall Street expectations, up by around 1% at $348.50 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +10.56% 3 Month -7.92% Year-to-date -2.92% 1 Year -10.29% Mastercard Incorporated price targets JP Morgan $425 Wells Fargo $400 Piper Sandler $298 Mizuho $375 Truist Securities $420 Barclays $430 BMO Capital $402 Morgan Stanley $452 Mastercard Incorporated is the 19 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $338.14 billion.
You can trade Mastercard Incorporated (MA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Mastercard Incorporated, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
