市场资讯及洞察

周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。


Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - W West Texas Intermediate (WTI) West Texas Intermediate (WTI, also referred to as Texas Light Sweet) is an oil benchmark that is central to oil commodity trading. It is one of the three major oil benchmarks used in trading, along with Brent crude and Dubai/Oman. Working Order A Working Order typically refers to either a stop or limit order to open.
Working Orders are used to advise your broker to execute a trade when your desired tradable asset reaches a specified price. Learn more about Working Orders

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - V Variable costs Variable cost refers to an expense which is subject to change when a products sales volumes change. Costs will typically increase or decrease when sales drop or rise, respectively. VIX Short for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the VIX is used to track S&P 500 index volatility.
It is arguably the most well-known volatility index on the market. Learn more about VIX Volatility A market’s volatility is its likelihood of making major, short-term price movements at any time. A high level of volatility can provide opportunity to make profitable trades in a short period of time.
Learn more about Volatility Volume Volume in trading refers to the amount of a particular asset being traded over a certain period of time. It's typically presented alongside price information and offers an extra dimension when examining the price history of an asset. Learn more about using Volume in trading.
Volume-weighted average price VWAP is a technical analysis tool which shows the ratio of an asset's price to its total trade volume. the VWAP provides traders with a measure of the average price a stock has traded at over a given period of time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - U Unborrowable stock The stock that no one is willing to lend out to short sellers is known as an Unborrowable stock. The traditional means of short selling is impossible, when shares in a company are unborrowable.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - T Take profit (TP) Learn more about Trading with a Profit Target (Take Profit) Strategy. Tangible assets Tangible assets are a companies physical assets, such as real estate holdings, machinery, manufacturing or computer equipment, and raw materials of value, e.g. timber, ore, etc. Technical analysis Technical analysis is the examination and prediction of price movements in a financial market.
Analysts aim to form accurate predictions of future price movements using information such as historical data, market statistics, trader sentiments and current events impacting a given market. Tom-next Short for ‘tomorrow-next day’, Tom-next is the process of rolling a Forex position from one spot day to the next. This is also sometimes referred to as "the cost of carry" or "financing adjustment".
Trading floor Also referred to as a "trading pit", the trading floor is the area in an exchange where assets are traded. This is most commonly associated with stock and futures exchanges. Trading journal Learn more about using a Trading Journal.
Trading plan A strategy used by individual traders to evaluate assets, risk management and types of tradings. A trading plan will typically be composed of the expected term of trading, and how to accomplish the traders objectives in that time frame. Learn more about Trading Plan Trailing stop A trailing stop is modified type of stop-loss order that automatically follows positive market movements of traders asset.
If the traders position moves positively but then reverses, a trailing stop will lock in the current profit and close the traders position. Learn more about using a Trailing Stop strategy. Treasury stock Treasury stocks are a portion of a company’s shares that it keeps in its own treasury.
These shares do not pay dividends - because a company can't pay itself - and do not count towards the number of shares listed. Trend A sustained upward or downward movement of a particular market or asset. Identifying the beginning of a trend as the time to purchase/open a position, and forecasting the end of trends as the time to sell/close a position, is a key part of market analysis.
Trending shares A company's stock is considered a "trending share" when it moves significantly in comparison to its underlying index; the trend can be up or down, and can represent significant gain or loss.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - S Scalp "Scalping" is the process of opening and closing a position very quickly, with the goal of profiting from small price movements. SEC The SEC is the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It is the government agency which regulates markets United States to protect investors.
It also oversees mergers and acquisitions of companies. Sectors A sectors is a division within an economy or market, used for analysing and comparing companies with activities and interests. Share buyback A share buyback is when a company buys back its own shares back from private investors.
Once shares are bought back by the company they are considered cancelled, but can be redistribution in the future. Share buybacks are sometimes done as a tax-efficient way to return money to shareholders. Learn more about Share Buybacks Share price The share or stock price is the amount it costs to buy a single share of a company.
This price is determined by the market and fluctuates. Share prices typically increase when a company is regarded as having a promising future, or when it reports better than expected earnings, and will fall when reporting missed expectations. Share prices may also fall following news or events expected to impact the company negatively.
Shares (stocks, cash equities) A shares is a unit of ownership in a company, usually traded on the stock market. They are also referred to as cash equities or stocks. Short Short describes a trade that will incur profit if the asset being traded decreases in price.
This is also referred to as going short, shorting or short-selling. Learn more about Short Trading Short squeeze When an asset starts to move up in price, this can cause traders holding short positions to rush to cover their positions and minimize potential losses. Learn more about Short Squeeze Short-selling The act of selling an asset that you do not currently own.
The hope of short-selling is that the asset will decrease in value, at which point the trader can close their trade for a profit. In contrast to this, if a shorted asset rises in value, closing the position results in a loss for the trader. Slippage Slippage is when the price an order is executes at does not match the price at which it was made.
Smart order router (Smart order routing) Smart order routing is an automated online trading process that looks for trading liquidity, and is used as an indicator in certain trading strategies. SNB Abbreviation for the Swiss National Bank, the central bank for Switzerland. Spot Price The spot price refers to the price of an asset at any given time, available for immediate purchase/delivery at that moment.
Spread Spread refers to the difference in price between the bid(buy) and offer(sell) price for a tradable asset. Stock exchange A stock exchange is a centralised location where a publicly traded companies shares are traded. Stock exchanges tradable assets are limited to stocks, bonds and exchange traded products.
There are many major stock exchanges operating in different countries, e.g. the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq in the United States, the Japan Exchange Group, Honk Kong Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Swiss Exchange, and more. Stock index A stock index is a group of shares used to paint a general picture of a particular sector, exchange or economy. Stock indexes are typically made from a certain number of the top shares from a given exchange, e.g. the ASX200 is based on the 200 largest stocks listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.
Stock symbol A stock symbol is an abbreviation used to identify the shares of a publicly traded companies. e.g. the stock symbol of Apple Inc. on the Nasdaq is NASDAQ:AAPL. Stop Loss Order A stop loss is a limit order which triggers a trade at a predetermined price. Stop loss orders are useful for closing positions in response to a sudden unfavorable market movement, e.g. in the event the value of an asset suddenly crashes, a stop loss order can automatically sell the asset when it reaches a specified price to limit losses, rather than continuing to hold the asset while it continues to fall in value.
Strike Price The strike price is the agreed price for an underlying asset, this price forms the basis of an options contract. Support level Support level refers to a price price which a given asset may have difficulty falling below, due to a majority of traders looking to buy around this price. Swaps Learn more about Swaps.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - R Rally A rally refers to the price of an asset undergoing sustained upward momentum over a period of time. Range Range is the difference between a market’s lowest and highest point over a specified period of time. If a market has a wide range during a given period this is an indication of high volatility, and may be utilized in certain trading strategies.
Rate-of-return ROR, Rate-of-return, is the profit or loss of an investment over a given period. ROR is expressed as a percentage, with a positive ROR reflecting that an investment has returned a profit, while a negative ROR means a loss. Ratio spread Ratio spread options trading strategy where a trader will hold an unequal number of buy and sell positions on a single underlying asset at the same time.
Reserves Reserves are the liquid assets set aside for future use by a trader. Reserves can be held in the form of commodities, such as gold, but usually traders will keep cash as it is more immediately accessible. Resistance level Resistance level is the price at which an assets upward price trajectory is hindered by an overwhelming demand to sell the asset.
When an asset appears to be nearing a resistance level, traders may close their position in order to take profit, rather than risk the price falling to a lower price. Reversal (Trend reversal) A reversal is a change of direction in the price movement of an asset, e.g. when an upward trend becomes a downward trend, or vice versa. Rights issue When a company offers existing shareholders the opportunity to buy additional shares for a discounted price, this is referred to as a Rights issue.
The discounted price will usually only be available for a brief period, before returning to the normal price. Learn more about Rights issues Risk management Risk management refers to a variety of processes or strategies, the ultimate goal of which is to identify the potential risk of investments and mitigate potential losses. Risks In trading, "risk" refers to any potential event or circumstance in which and investment can lose money.
Regulatory News Service (UK) The RNS is responsible for disseminating information on behalf of UK publicly listed companies. The RNS operates as part of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and provides companies with information to help them to meet their regulatory disclosure obligations. ROCE (Return on capital employed) ROCE refers to a long-term profitability ratio which measures how effectively capital is used by a company, e.g. profit generated for each each dollar used.
Rollover A rollover refers to keeping a position open beyond its expiry date. Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI is a tool used in technical analysis to gauge whether an asset is potentially overbought or oversold, and to predict if a rally or correction may be imminent. Learn more about RSI.
