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随着苹果加入进AI研发领域，7大巨头在AI领域的争夺愈发激烈。目前苹果抛弃了一向低调的风格，各路舆论媒体开始密集曝光苹果的各种消息。而2024年6月无疑对苹果公司是至关重要的，因为WWDC24开发者大会即将于6月10日至14日举行。苹果公司表示，他们将以在线形式举办每年规模最大的开发者盛会。参与者将有机会亲眼见证苹果最新平台，技术和工具的发布，了解如何创建和改进应用和游戏，并与苹果的设计师和工程师进行互动。这个活动将免费使开发者能够探索各种新的工具，框架和功能，助力他们打造出理想的应用和游戏。WWDC 2024期间预计将发布的操作系统包括：iOS/iPad OS 18、tvOS 18、watchOS 11、macOS 15以及全新的visionOS。这就像一场交响乐，苹果是演奏者，而全世界的消费者则是听众。

两周前苹果公布的财报并不差，但令人们期待的亮眼新品发布并未如期而至，直到周末才传出苹果与OpenAI的合作传闻。外媒称，苹果公司即将与OpenAI达成协议，计划在下一代iPhone操作系统iOS 18中整合ChatGPT功能。自ChatGPT火爆以来，智能手机厂商纷纷加大AI相关技术的投入，令很多iPhone用户感到不满的是，苹果至今未推出自家的AI大模型产品。苹果公司传出即将与OpenAI达成协议的消息，将使iPhone用户能够体验到由OpenAI提供的最先进AI技术，包括但不限于自然语言处理和生成式AI能力。这项合作对于苹果来说具有战略意义，有助于其在激烈竞争的智能手机市场中保持领先地位，并可能引领未来AI技术在消费电子产品中的应用潮流。人们可以期待苹果在即将到来的全球开发者大会（WWDC24）上公布更多关于iOS 18及其AI功能的详细信息。

在6月开发者大会基调已经落地的时候，苹果却面临着投资者一系列的疑问尚待解答。首先是巴菲特以避税为由减持苹果股份，库克自己也在逐渐套现，这是大佬们对苹果未来的不确定性担忧，还是市场反应过于敏感了？今年苹果股价表现尚不突出。关于库克的问题，各大舆论聚焦于他即将离任的议题，甚至已经在预测苹果的下一任领导人。自乔布斯时代以来，库克领导的苹果逐渐从科技创新转向商业利益为主导，公司现金流充裕，业绩有了质的飞跃，但自乔布斯离开后，我们再也没有见到令人惊叹的苹果黑科技。现年63岁的库克是否应该让位于新人？在库克任内，苹果的执行团队几乎没有经历过大的变动，除了设计师乔尼·艾夫的高调离职和零售部门负责人安吉拉·阿伦茨的插曲，苹果团队过去几年中基本保持稳定。管理层年龄偏大，财富积累丰厚，但苹果公司却面临着极其严峻的挑战。美国和欧盟目前正在调查苹果，苹果也在努力阻止其应用商店被拆分，以保留每年200亿美元的销售额。智能手机销售面临巨大压力，中国市场前景不明朗，苹果想要撤出中国生产线却又不能得罪北京，也是一个棘手的问题。

目前，苹果押注的重要产品之一是Vision Pro，放弃了电动汽车项目后，这可能是未来几年苹果保持市场地位的关键。然而，目前的Vision Pro仍然显得有些笨拙，迫切需要快速进化。人们需要的是一种类似佩戴眼镜的产品，而不是一直佩戴笨重的头盔。距离6月苹果开发者大会还有一个月的时间，对于这次盛会的探讨已经开始，期待之情愈发浓烈。我们希望苹果能够继续屹立在创新的高峰，像乔布斯一样不断助力改善人类的生活方式，而不是只想着商业化获利。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Tom Williams ( @TomW_GOMarkets ) is the GO Markets Head of Trading. He started out as a dealer and broker in the excitement-driven city of London across equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. Learning the technical aspects of what is now a software-driven business has allowed Tom to lead all trading operations at GO Markets, literally keeping the show on the road.

Old Scouse loves a laugh and a pint and is always affable enough to show you the bright side of life (as Monty Python says). In this episode we'll cover: What brought Tom to Australia and what he misses about the UK His role as head of trading at GO Markets The Swiss National Bank Crisis The GFC and Brexit - Transcript Disclaimer: Go Markets is a derivatives broker and Jordan Michaelides is the managing director of Neuralle Media. All opinions expressed by Jordan and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Go Markets, an AFSL license holder.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for financial decisions nor as an indication of future performance. Clients of Go Markets may hold positions in the derivatives mentioned. A financial services guide and product disclosure statement for our products are available at the www.gomarkets.com website.

Jordan Michaelides: In this episode we spoke with Tom Williams. Tom is Go Markets head of trading and he started out as a dealer and broker in the excitement driven city of London across equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. Learning the technical aspects of what is now very a software driven business has allowed Tom to lead all trading operations at Go Markets, keeping the show literally on the road.

Tom loves a laugh and a pint, is always affable enough to show you the bright side of life, as Monte Python would say. This is a fascinating episode where we cover what brought him here to Australia and what he misses about the UK. His role as head of trading at Go Markets, particularly examples or crises like the Swiss national bank crisis, the GFC and Brexit, as well as what sitcom best portrays the Go Markets office.

If you enjoy this episode, subscribe on your podcast app and share with one of your friends, particularly those who want to get an understanding of the more technical aspects when it comes to trading and what goes on behind the scenes. With that being said, let's get into the episode with Tom Williams. Tom, thanks for joining me on me what has turned into a rather miserable Friday afternoon in the Go Markets office.

First question for you, how was the wedding? Tom Williams: The wedding was stressful, but, it was great fun. We went up to Queensland and got the families from New Zealand, from Queensland, from England, all over, and a lot of them met for the first time which was great, but stressful being centre of attention and having to entertain that many people for a few days.

Jordan Michaelides: How long had you guys been planning this wedding? How much time do you spend typically on a wedding planning? Tom Williams: For me, a lot less than my wife *laughs*.

I'd say I had a passive involvement in the organization of the wedding. Jordan Michaelides: I like that. I like that you're aware of that too.

Tom Williams: I mean, my wife's a florist, as you know, so from the events side of it she's got way more experienced than I have, I would have just messed the whole thing up if I had anything to do with it. Jordan Michaelides: Now, I want to get into how I guess a liver Puglian made his way here to Australia, but I'll give people a little bit of a background first. So, obviously you were born and bred in Liverpool.

From looking at your past history you spent about five years in the business in the city of London before you made your way out here, working in many different roles, but primarily as a dealer. Equities, fixed income, eventually CFDs as well, which is what Go Markets focuses on now. What was the catalyst that drew you out to Australia?

Tom Williams: The catalyst to go to Australia was and event that happened in 2012 when the company I was working for at the time went into administration, and there was a moment where I could either continue the daily grind in London, or take some time out and go and see the world a bit, which is what I did. I took nearly a year off and ended up in South America, which is where I met my now wife, in Peru. She was from Australia and I had to come over here to, you know, seal the deal.

Jordan Michaelides: So really it was like love that the drew you out here, you could say. Tom Williams: Well, I had no intention of moving away from the UK, you know, I never considered what it'd be like not working in the UK. I guess the opportunity was there and it seemed like the right thing to do and it's worked out pretty well.

Jordan Michaelides: Yeah, I would definitely say that. And it's so fascinating. I just look at it from your position and I don't think you would have ever expected to be in this situation five, six years ago.

Tom Williams: Absolutely. I couldn't have even imagined it to be honest. Jordan Michaelides: Also, it's interesting because of just where the UK is at and what Australia offers.

The other day I was looking at like immigration numbers the UK is still the biggest source in terms of growth through immigration, I'm pretty sure next to China. I think it's still the biggest because a lot of millennials like yourself come out here and there's just so much opportunity. You can speak the language, you get sun.

Tom Williams: Yeah. I mean the UK is a great place to live, but we just, we don't have the weather. I'm not saying that I'm much of a beach goer, but we just don't have the sorts of lifestyle that good, consistent, good weather brings.

We have long winters and miserable rainy days. Melbourne winter is considered a bad winter in Australia, but you still get lovely sunny days and it's just a more positive place to be, that people are more positive as a result of the lifestyle that Australia offers. Jordan Michaelides: And apart from your family, what do you miss the most about home?

Tom Williams: This is a question I get asked quite frequently and it's a struggle to answer it because there's not a lot that I do miss from the UK really, except family and friends to be honest. Jordan Michaelides: Not even football? Tom Williams: The football side of it, you just learn to live with it.

Thanks to Optus, you can catch up on demand pretty easily. So, to be honest, I don't miss a lot in terms of lifestyle or anything like that. Jordan Michaelides: Well, that’s good to hear.

And, eventually citizenship for yourself, like one of the other poms that we have in the office here would be good to see. I'm thinking about your family in particular, and I'm curious as I like to know from a lot of guests, if you can think back to your own childhood, and about your parents, is there a particular lesson or principle that you maybe hold with you today that you saw directly or indirectly from them, and you later realized it's a core tenant of your personality. Tom Williams: I suppose hard work, and discipline as well.

Growing up in a city like Liverpool, you could be led astray in a number of different directions. My father is a policeman, so he was always very strict and perhaps, saw me going in the wrong direction when I was younger. Nothing crazy, I'm talking just normal teenage stuff that you kind of get yourself involved in, but obviously he didn't turn a blind eye to that.

He put me on the right tracks. So, yeah, discipline, hard work. My father retired as a superintendent in the police, which is a pretty senior role to get to, and he worked very hard for it.

I guess that's always resonated with me. Jordan Michaelides: Now thinking about work, your role here is head of trading, which is a thing that people see a lot on different roles for people in different CFD and equity organizations, but they don't really know what it is. I thought maybe we'll just get into the nuts and bolts of that.

What does that look like? I'm trying to give people the context of 2003 to 2005, you would have still been on the phones a lot, taking orders. Now most systems are quite automated and electronic.

So what does your role of head and trading involve? Tom Williams: So, we try and focus on the overall client experience with the trading platform, whether that be from a cost perspective in terms of the spreads that they're paying, the commissions that they're paying, the overnight financing, all the way through to the quality of execution, so, how quickly are these clients able to execute? Are they able to execute during fast markets?

Are they able to execute around news, and we try to control the overall cost of trading to make the whole experience better for the client. Jordan Michaelides: So basically you make sure the shit doesn't hit the fan in a way. Tom Williams: Pretty much.

That's one element of it, for sure. As you touched on before, a lot of it is automated. All of our hedging algorithms, everything is automated.

It very much becomes autopilot to make sure that nothing goes wrong. And when stuff does go wrong, the most important thing that our team can do is make sure it's put right as quickly as possible. Jordan Michaelides: Are there any particular crazy stories that come to mind?

I know that in my time here we had some pretty stunning events where the markets were more than wild. I know in our last interview with Chris Gore, he spoke about dealing with the Swiss bank, taking away that peg from the Euro. I'm just curious, are there any crazy stories that you have in memory of the market just going absolutely nuts.

Tom Williams: There's definitely a few. There were a couple after the Swiss national bank crisis. Since then we've had a UK referendum.

We've had the election of Donald Trump. There's been a number of associated issues like a Sterling flash crash, which just came out of absolutely nowhere. Jordan Michaelides: When was that?

Tom Williams: That was soon after the referendum on Brexit. The market started to settle down and then out of nowhere there was a huge liquidity drain. Markets these days are so dictated by algorithms and high frequency trading systems that if there's a liquidity drain, it happens immediately.

It's not something that happens over time. So, yeah, we have witnessed a few occasions like that, but most notable is definitely the Swiss banking crisis, when the Swiss national bank just… leading up to the events, decided that they were going to tell the market that they were going to maintain this peg of 120 against the Euro and that they were committed to doing this, and Thomas Jordan, the chairman of the SNB at the time came out a week prior and said we're committed to holding this peg, then all of a sudden shocked the market and said that this is not something that we can feasibly do. I think it was the 15th of Jan 2015, so it was soon after the Christmas break, everybody was just getting back into the swing of things and all of a sudden, a phone call at 10:00 PM at night saying get into the office, the shit’s hit the fan.

So, there were a number of us in the office at the time, it was all hands on deck. Nobody really knew what was going on. The news was out, we knew what happened, but we didn't know how markets were going to react.

Nobody could really price where they thought the Swiss Frank was, banks in particular. There was a lot of uncertainty around where things actually traded, where the market is, where it should be. This went on for a week after the event, which markets have never seen before.

It was a crazy time. Jordan Michaelides: To me that’s very interesting. I mean, I've read about it, but we don't see behind the scenes, you know.

The things that you guys see. If you were to think of the most crucial aspect of your role, you spoke before about execution, liquidity, supervising, all that sort of stuff, what do you think is the most important? The number one aspect of being head of trading.

Tom Williams: I think without a doubt it's going to be attention to detail, being observance and not missing things. At the same time, it's important to remember what everybody's working towards and what the end goal is, which essentially for an online FX broker is to have a product which is efficient for the clients. The competition amongst the FX brokers these days is so… There's so many brokers out there, everybody's trying to compete on cost and these discount pricing models.

If you fall behind the wolf-pack you're going to struggle to get in front again. It's very important for us to just remember the end goal of what we're trying to achieve, which is to create this superior platform to our competitors. Jordan Michaelides: I think Chris Gore spoke about that last week that because it's so competitive now, the main advantage you have is just being trusted and people know that a company like Go Markets has been around for a while and can be trusted to maintain certain best practices or expectations through the market prices, or, the spreads that people get as an example.

I find it interesting that you said the most crucial component is attention to detail because if you think about the principles that you took away from your dad, it's working hard and discipline. And that is like the perfect thing for attention to detail. We were chatting before about what we want to talk about in this session and you spoke before about Brexit.

I feel like you would have had a bit of experience, just from memory. we had a chat years ago about the Lehman brothers collapsed and the 10 year anniversary of the GFC. The effect on the UK was pretty similar, although a bit different. The governments seemed to offer this money to these banks, but they wanted shares in return and I'm pretty sure the government did pretty well buying a large portion of Lloyd's.

I'm just curious, you got into the industry around ’09, what memory do you have of that period? Tom Williams: I was in the industry prior to ’09, I was in the industry from ’07, so I was around when all this happened but I was very young, and I wasn't in a responsible position, but I remember sheer, um, fear and. In the UK there were customers queued up at banks trying to withdrawal their cash, which obviously doesn't work because banks don't hold that amount of cash.

There were banks going into administration, there was footage all over the TVs of people packing boxes up, like Lehman brothers for example, was a huge tower in Canary Wharf which was just down the road from where I was working at the time. It was just like Armageddon, you know, people didn't really know what was going to go on after that, but things worked out okay. But you know, who paid for that whole crisis in the end, it was probably not the banks.

It was probably the people. Jordan Michaelides: Going back to that point I made about the banks basically having shares purchased by the government, it was the taxpayer's money. It went back to the government and then the UK went through a massive austerity process because it was part of the EU.

That's what you had to do. Tom Williams: Exactly. There were huge welfare cuts.

Jordan Michaelides: I reckon that’s actually why we've seen so many poms immigrated out here, simply because the opportunities dried up. It's easier to come to Australia as an Englishman and the opportunities are pretty great. There’s also a lot of family connections for a lot of people as well.

Tom Williams: It’s also quality of life. If you're a plumber or a carpenter, an electrician, a welder in the UK, your quality of life is dictated by the amount you’re able to earn in those roles in the UK. Whereas you come to Australia and everybody has a good quality of life.

There's a good sort of minimum earning for any role in. It turns out that the tradies in Australia probably do better than anyone else better. I've always loved that about Australia, the fact that there are equal opportunities no matter what sorts of road you chose to go down.

Jordan Michaelides: I'd definitely agree with that. Why Brexit came along, which I want to chat about, is because you know, you have all this immigration, austerity processes in the UK, combine that all together and you’ve got yourself the perfect storm for what happened with Brexit because if you're a plumber living in the Midlands and you're getting paid by the hour, and some guy from Eastern Europe has immigrated over and he's happy to work for 10 or 15 bucks an hour then life’s going to be pretty average, I'd say. Tom Williams: Yeah.

Brexit highlights some fundamental problems with the Eurozone, doesn't it? The Eurozone has always been criticized for being this huge block of very different economies which all governed by a single interest rates and it's always been a, a complex system from day one. The funny thing about Brexit was the lefties got behind Europe and they wanted solidarity with Europe, the city of London, which is a huge part of GDP obviously got behind Brexit because the lack of borders in financial markets is very important, but then it was the exact sort of demographic that you just highlighted, the guys who don't fit into those two baskets that I've just spoke about.

They think ‘what's in this for me?’ I suppose as with any of these decisions, it depends on what newspaper you read. If you're buying a tabloid for a pound with a page three girl and you're basing your political votes on a tabloid then that might be what happens. Jordan Michaelides: It’s interesting.

My view on it initially was this isn't a great thing, they've going backwards here. But then I've had the time to sort of process it, and, I like Nigel Farage a speaker, but, when you actually watch him in interviews he goes a lot deeper into some of the reasons why, and having been involved in similar industries such as Forex and Cryptocurrencies, we've now seen the city of London actually come out here. My own view is that the UK seems to be pivoting itself towards Asia.

And we've got these FinTech bridge, which is sort of like a compliance bridge through Australia. There's the free trade agreement which they gunning on. My own view is that actually it's probably going to turn out better for them, simply because they can use Australia as a stepping stone to the biggest market in the world, I think Asia now, without the Indian sub-continent I think is about 46% of world GDP.

So, it's the biggest market in the world, bigger than North America. How do you view it now? In hindsight?

Tom Williams: Day to day, it's purely the uncertainty surrounding how this Brexit is actually going to happen. Long-term it will work itself out, as all these things always do. It's not a case of the UK leaving the Eurozone and all of a sudden nobody wants to trade with the UK, it’s just ridiculous to think that.

I suppose it depends on the negotiating powers of the UK government, whoever's there at the time to be able to go and strike these agreements with Asia, as you've just suggested. Jordan Michaelides: It's going to be interesting. They’re not getting very far at the moment, I think it's March or something that it finishes up.

Going back to the industry now and then, last week we spoke about trends, obviously cryptocurrencies have been a big thing, I guess for the business here. There's also the fact that, like I was saying before, the role that you would have as head of trading being on a phone versus it more around automation now, I was chatting to Khim Khor before, who's one of the directors here, in charge of the Asia business, and we were speaking about the institutional side of things and APIs. I'm curious as to what you guys have done around that because he was telling me that you led something in that area in particular.

Tom Williams: So, as you know we've got a lot of retail clients in Australia and overseas and we've managed to, over the years, generate great relationships with the wholesale market in terms of liquidity providers, prime brokers, prime of primes, and, we also have a very healthy balance sheet which enables us to go and strike good liquidity terms with these counterparts. Our business has changed somewhat in that it's not completely retail led. We are approached by a lot of wholesale type clients these days, including funds, other brokers who are maybe smaller than us, who don't carry the same sorts of balance sheet, who want to be able to get access to very tight pricing, commercial terms that they might not be able to achieve elsewhere, so, we've transitioned from this purely retail driven model to now be able to compete as a liquidity provider ourselves.

Jordan Michaelides: Wow. I didn't know that. So, now if you had to break down the percentage of the clients, or let's say the amount of sales and volume of transactions between wholesale and retail, what do you reckon the percentages are?

Tom Williams: In terms of monthly turnover I'd say it's around 66% retail, 33% wholesale. I mean, the sheer volume that a wholesale client can do is obviously the reason behind that. They can have good months, they can have terrible months, but retail is still the majority of our business and that's where we try to differentiate ourselves away from competitors because it ties in with the whole online marketing and… Jordan Michaelides: It’s interesting to hear how the trading desk is changing in that regard.

It's one of those things you have to keep growing somehow. You got to keep doing new things. Tom Williams: Diversification of flow is becoming very important for us as well, because, retail tends to go completely one way and the whole retail market all read the same news so everybody kind of trades in a similar fashion, and for us to be able to reduce costs by internalization, we need to be able to see different types of flow from different demographics.

Jordan Michaelides: And put it put the opposing way out essentially. Tom Williams: Exactly. Jordan Michaelides: Interesting.

Now, what I'd like to ask each guest is, I'm giving the audience an idea of what the office here is like. I was saying to Chris last week that it’s a pretty impressive company, there's a lot of staff, I think there's like 40 or so staff now, a big office, nice officers. I just want to give people an idea of what the team is like and how… because we're so removed from seeing the people behind the business are actually like, and so I'm curious, if you were to choose one sitcom that represents the go market office, do you have one in mind or what would it be?

Tom Williams: Should I ask what Chris's answer to this was? Jordan Michaelides: Hmm. You don't want to know.

Tom Williams: Okay, well, my answer would definitely be the UK version of the office. I think we've think we've definitely got a David Brent character. Jordan Michaelides: Yes, and that would be Chris who claimed that last week.

Tom Williams: Did he claim it? Really? I must have drilled into him.

I like that. But no, the office, it's a great environment. It’s a fairly young demographic, it's not a load of old-boys sat there, it's new, educated, friendly people to work with.

It's a good place to be. Jordan Michaelides: We're running at a time, so I want to switch to some short fast, questions for you. What does your morning routine look like?

Tom Williams: My morning routine is very straight forward. I've just moved house, so my tram route to work has train changed slightly. I get into the office at around 7:00am and get in touch with what's gone on overnight. 7:00am is New York close, so there's not really a lot going on after that, markets have settled down.

Time to read some news, the ASX has still got a couple of hours to open, so, get to work, have some breakfast, get ready for the day. Jordan Michaelides: And the evening? How do you sort of decompress at night?

What's your go to for relaxing? Tom Williams: Go to the gym, go boxing, kickboxing, I do that three or four times a week. I head home, dinner will be on the table… no, I wish! *laughs* You know my wife, but no, she's good, she is good.

I just kick back most of the time. Most of the time during the week, it's an early night. Jordan Michaelides: What’s the most influential book on your life.

Let's say if you had to gift it to someone at Kris Kringle this year at Go Markets, what would you gift? Tom Williams: God, this could be controversial, couldn’t it. One that's always struck a chord with me is ‘The God Delusion’.

Have you read it? Jordan Michaelides: I just bought it. I go through this heavy process of building a list of books every year and then I buy them all at once after I cull that list.

I just got that one. Tom Williams: Well, being brought up in a predominantly Irish Catholic background in Liverpool, if you were seen walking around the streets with ‘The God Delusion’ in your hands in Liverpool you'd definitely get a few funny looks, but cosmopolitan Melbourne you can get away with it. Jordan Michaelides: Can you just give a quick little explain explainer for the audience what it's about.

Tom Williams: It's about the scientific approach to life rather than the religious approach, and how it’s completely different. They say never talk about politics or religion, so let's not go too far into it. Jordan Michaelides: *laughs* Yeah, it's a good book.

I bought that with ‘The Selfish Gene’ by Richard Dawkins which is pretty good too. They're good reads, I reckon. Another one for you, any favourite documentaries or movies, if you had to list your top three or five.

Tom Williams: I go through phases with documentaries in particular where I just binge watch something about a random topic. Jordan Michaelides: Are you a Netflix guy? Tom Williams: Yes, but, I find sometimes Netflix can just get sour, and there’s not a lot going on.

I move in trends from watching documentaries about guerrilla warfare in the democratic Republic of Congo to becoming completely fascinated with World War Two and all the things associated with it. Auschwitz is one of my most recent ones, which is a fairly morbid topic. Jordan Michaelides: Have you been there at all?

Tom Williams: I have not been, but I'd like to go. Jordan Michaelides: I'm actually in that stage again right now. I mean, I've had it over the years many times, you find a few good movies that really shows what it was like.

Schindler's, there was one called one the Wannsee conference with a brilliant English actor, Colin Firth was in it as well, just little films like that which are underrated. I'd think Schindler's list is a pretty well-known film, but just really gives you that perspective. Tom Williams: They’re completely eye, you just cannot fathom what went on.

So, to answer your question, a diverse range of documentaries. Jordan Michaelides: Last question for you, what has been the best purchase for you under $200 bucks? Tom Williams: Well, let's not talk about a purchase that I've made, what about a purchase that I'm going to make, that I'm on the verge of making?

Jordan Michaelides: It could also be a purchase that is an experience. It doesn't have to be a specific object Tom Williams: Well, we’re organizing, Fran and I, have started to organize a couple of life-size impressions of ours to send over to the UK for Christmas so we can sit them down at the Christmas dinner table and enjoy a bit of an over cook Turkey with the family. Jordan Michaelides: Wow, that's good.

I really like that. Tom Williams: So yeah, for a couple of hundred bucks, I think that will probably be the purchase of the year. Jordan Michaelides: You should start a little business like that for other experts.

Say, hey, you don’t have to go home… Tom Williams: I could be the go-to guy for life-size models. Jordan Michaelides: Tom, it's been a pleasure. We've already hit 30 minutes.

Thank you very much for joining us. Tom Williams: Thanks very much.

Vee Leung Phan is the Founder of TrackRecord Asia and former Head of Trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. Vee made his way into the industry by chance, after realising there was no real opportunity back home during the 1997 Asia Financial Crisis. Fast forward 13+ years and Vee had co-founded a hedge fund, run multiple divisions for both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, and co-founded a machine learning tech startup.

TrackRecord Asia is a financial training academy for trading teams in banks and professional traders – designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first-class institutions. In this episode we’ll cover: Singapore and Vee’s childhood in Kuala Lumpur Uni life in Manchester and how he got into trading Lessons learnt from his mother Career path and insight into the industry Vee’s trading training framework The biggest mistake in the business. - Transcript: Jordan Michaelides: Margin Call is the podcast that gives you behind the scenes access to ups and downs of working in the Forex CFD industry. We interview the people that keep the show on the road, giving you insight into what makes the industry tick.

The series is guest hosted by myself, Jordan Michaelides, and produced by the team at Neuralle Media. To learn more, visit go www.gomarkets.com/podcast/ or take a look at the Go Market suite of products at www.gomarkets.com. Disclaimer: Go Markets is a derivatives broker and Jordan Michaelides is the managing director of Neuralle Media.

All opinions expressed by Jordan and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Go Markets, an AFSL license holder. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for financial decisions nor as an indication of future performance. Clients of go markets may hold positions in the derivatives mentioned.

A financial services guide and product disclosure statement for our products are available at the www.gomarkets.com website. Jordan Michaelides: In this episode we spoke with Vee Leung Phan. Vee is the founder of track record HR and former head of trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley.

Vee made his way into the industry by chance after realizing there was no real opportunity back home during the ‘97 Asian financial crisis. Fast forward 13 plus years and Vee has co- founded a hedge fund, he's run multiple divisions for both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley as well as cofounded a machine learning tech startup in Singapore. Track record Asia is a financial trading academy for trading teams and banks, and professional traders alike.

It is designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first class institutions that we cover in this episode today. Vee is a great guy with a wealth of experience across the industry. This is a brilliant episode where we cover Singapore and his childhood in Kuala Lumpur, University life in Manchester and how he actually got into trading, lessons learned from his mother, career path, his trading training framework from Track Record Asia, and things like biggest mistakes in this business.

Now, we have a special competition for you guys as well: Three listeners to this episode can win a free copy of Vee’s recommended trading book which is called ‘The Next Perfect Trade’, and that will be autographed by the author Alex Gurvich as well. Participants will need to provide their feedback on his episode via www.trackrecordasia.com/podcast/, all submitted entries will also receive a free 12 week access to Track Record Asia's weekly risk call recordings and the week ahead marker report, so, a nice little prize there for you if you're willing to give it a go. If you enjoy this episode, do subscribe on your podcast app and share with your friends.

With all that said, thanks so much for listening. Let's get into the episode with Vee Leung Phan. Vee, thank you very much for joining us on what I think is a very early morning in Singapore for you.

First question for you, and probably the most important one is, what frustrates you the most about living in Singapore? Vee Leung Phan: In Singapore, the most frustrating thing to say about it is the weather. It's unreasonably hot, sometimes hot and humid.

I think with better weather Singapore would be the perfect place on earth. Jordan Michaelides: I was going to say what's it like today? What's the weather like?

Vee Leung Phan: It's usually either hot or raining. It's not raining, so it's probably hot out there. Jordan Michaelides: Interesting.

Now you didn't grow up in Singapore, I think, from memory, you spent your formative years in or just around the suburbs of Kuala Lumpur. I'm curious as to what sort of your earliest memory of your own childhood? Vee Leung Phan: That's an interesting question.

Yeah, I grew up in a small town outside off Kuala Lumpur, my earliest memory is really fuzzy, it’s literally fuzzy because I had really bad eyesight when I was really young, but nobody knew this. So, I was just going around thinking that that is normal for me to not be able to see clearly. I found out when I was about 10 years old that my eyesight was really bad because the teachers then started to realize I couldn't really repeat anything on the board until I got really close to the front, and strangely enough even though my whole family is short sighted I was the only one who’s sight issue was not discovered because my mother kept thinking that because I could memorize most of the things I did see that my eyesight was good because I knew what was going on, but actually I couldn’t see much.

It was really strange. Jordan Michaelides: Did you get that fixed? Did you kick classes or did you eventually… Vee Leung Phan: Yeah, I got glasses when I was 10 years old.

I'm not sure how you guys score this but it was 400 for me. That's huge, because most people start around 50 to a hundred. Jordan Michaelides: Really...

Vee Leung Phan: Yeah. I eventually deteriorated to about a thousand, which is almost legally blind, so I'd had corrective glasses which are really thick, so I was one of those little kids with really thick glasses. Vee Leung Phan: *chuckles* I can imagine that, how cliché’.

That's hilarious. When you were growing up was there anything in particular that you thought you were going to be as an adult, like a particular job? Vee Leung Phan: Oh, yes.

I was a very determined to be Spiderman, until I realized that wasn’t realistic, so, then I thought I'll become a scientist because that's what Peter Parker was. I was very set on being a scientist. As I grew older, I realized that being in Malaysia if you're a scientist you probably end up researching about different strains of rice, rubber trees or palm trees, so I thought that's not realistic, I'm not going to make any money from that, so, then I decided to settle on being an engineer and that's what I studied in school.

At university I did a degree in electronic engineering. Jordan Michaelides: That's right, yeah. You mentioned the university of Manchester, the Institute Of Science and Technology.

You did a Bachelors Of Electronic Engineering, I think this was around the peak of the Asian financial crisis, right? Why go to Manchester, out of interest? Vee Leung Phan: Why go to Manchester?

I applied for Cambridge, they rejected me *laughs*. I wanted to go to Oxford or Cambridge, I decided to go to Cambridge because there was no test required during the selection process, I was quite lazy. They rejected me, so then, the best engineering school in the UK at a time, and probably still is, is the Imperial College Of London.

They gave me a deferred entry, so I would go the next year and I thought, wow, this is silly, I don't want that. So then I went to the next best, which was actually a very distant next best, which is the University of Manchester. Jordan Michaelides: Interesting.

I find it so funny that you mentioned that mentality, that Asian mentality, of not wanting to, I guess, waste your time and defer. I remember I had that as a kid, my family's Greek so it's sort of like a similar mentality that you get in those Southern European families where you just want to make money, and, I find it curious because, this was the peak of 97 when you graduated I think, or around that time, it seemed, at least in a few of your biographies, that there was a mention of no real job opportunities back home and you sort of stumbled your way into working for what was Chase Manhattan, now JP Morgan Chase, as you wanted to get in from a computer science perspective, but, eventually it seems you were working on the FX trading side. I'm curious, when you got into that bank, what were the elements that excited you enough to continue going on with trading, FX commodities and so forth?

I'm just wondering what was going through your head at the time? Vee Leung Phan: Well, I’d just finished school. I had no money at all, and they offered me a job and provided training, so I thought, that’s great, it pays way more than what I would have made as an engineer.

At the time it was the peak of the NASDAQ boom. I applied for IT, I wanted to be in the IT department but they said they had no IT jobs but how about trading they asked. I said I had no clue what trading was, but that guy said, just give it a shot.

I said, okay, whatever, I'll just give it a shot and see what happens. I went through all the tests, all the interviews, and truly I had no idea what I was in for. I told them as much at the beginning but said I have no clue what trading is, but I will learn if you are willing to teach me.

I think they probably liked that because most of the people that were going there were from finance backgrounds, finance majors, maybe had PhDs and everybody seems to think they have figured out everything about what trading was. So, I went in with and open mind and I stayed because the money was good and I was being paid to learn for three month. There was a classroom-based training, so I was going to classes and after that it was just hanging out with different trading desks to see what they do.

That was quite good for me, I thought it was quite cool given that all I had to do was turn up and learn and they're paying me for it. Jordan Michaelides: Happy days. I'm curious how you perceive yourself personality wise.

I mean, my experience in the industry is you get two types of people generally, the type that just love the excitement of the trade, you know, the market environment, the pressure involved in it. And then you get the other types who are very calm, cool, and collected no matter what is going on. I'm curious as to how you see yourself.

What sort of mentality do you sit within when it comes to trading the market? Vee Leung Phan: Good question. I would like to think of myself as calm and collected, like James Bond, but probably that's not true.

In fact I’m quite animated at work, some people think it's kind of strange that I'm always commenting on something, and, in fact, that's why I got many opportunities at the early stage of my career, because I was observing every single market even if it really had nothing to do with me, you know, I’d be making comments that this thing is higher, this thing is moving. I was basically, I guess, the loud speaker for Bloomberg news, right? So, I was in a days where headlines were kind of difficult to find, I would be commenting on every single headline that came out and why markets were moving.

That's why I got quite a lot attention as a junior trader because, I was with this kid, right, and people thought he seems to be seems to be aware of what's happening all around the world, but I was literally reading every single headline that comes out. Jordan Michaelides: That's, that's so funny. And how you put your name out there through that sort of externalization, I really liked that.

When you were growing up with the particular lessons that you hold with you today, maybe it's a principle, a lesson, maybe it was something that was taught to you directly or indirectly from either of your parents. Vee Leung Phan: I remember this one time my mother was driving me to school, she was always very suspicious of whether I was taking drugs or not because I was a really small kid and I didn't seem to be growing at all, I look really thin then, and I was really small compared to my peers. She was always worried that I’d be bullied or I’d join a gang or something like that, succumb to peer pressured to join a gang.

She said to me, uh, are you taking any drugs? I said no, we did that come from? She said I just wanted to make sure you know to never do drugs.

Then she says another thing that you need to know is never joined a gang. This was a huge problem in the neighbourhood school I was going to at a time. I wasn’t from a well-to-do family, we didn't live in the best neighborhood so the schools were not that great.

Right. There were gangs dominant at the time and is was either you were in a gang or you were being bullied by the gang, so she was always worried about that. Of course, I was kind of a nerd back then so that was very far from my, for my mind.

I mean, who would recruit me into a gang anyway. This is where it gets interesting, she said if you do join, don't be the henchman, you have to be the boss. Jordan Michaelides: Wow.

I liked that the first assumption was that you were doing drugs and you're in a gang. That's so funny. Vee Leung Phan: Yeah.

So, she says if you really need to join, you have to be the boss, you cannot be the henchman. At first this was really weird to me because I was very small kid, how would it be possible for a small kid to become the boss of the gang? She said to me, it really doesn't matter how big you are in life, it's all about how you carry yourself.

She said you are like a chilli, we have different types of chili and the spiciest is the one that's the smallest, she says you have to be just like that, you have to be the spiciest. That's a lesson my mom taught me. When I was really young, as I mentioned, my eyesight was really bad, so I did really poorly in school, I remember I didn't really know how to read when I was six years old, and when I went to a school after kindergarten, I only knew 26 words in English from being taught A to Z examples, right?

I only knew 26 words and I was really surprised when the boy next to me could spell boy, I was really stunned. I said, Oh wow, this guy's a genius. How does he know this?

When a teacher says, what's B, I say ball, that was the only thing I knew only thing I knew. He says boy, and I thought, wow, how does he know boy. Then some other people said examples and I thought they were all geniuses.

Then the teachers had a conversation who my mother and told her, your son is a little bit slow, he doesn't know much. That never deterred my mom, she always managed to convince me that I was doing really well, that as long as you do your best, it's fine. I was the worst in the classes in the beginning, until I had better eyesight, then I became a good student.

Through it all she never doubted me and never made me feel like I was an idiot. She convinced me that as long as you try you can be the boss. Right.

So, I grew up in a bit with sense that I was the chosen one, like I had this invulnerability and I could do anything that I want, I'd go try out for sports which I couldn't do because the other kids were so much bigger than me, but I thought, I’ve got to try. Jordan Michaelides: That's really interesting. So, your mother instilled this initiative to just keep keeping on, which is interesting.

She sounds like a great mum. I'm curious, when I got into the nuts and bolts your career, I mean, I went back and looked at your career and you've done a lot. If you look at just what's on LinkedIn you've worked across FX, interest rates, equity markets, multiple cities, London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Seoul for a while.

I think of your beginnings at JP Morgan, you eventually worked at Deutsche Morgan Stanley, you co-founded a hedge with your old boss from JP Morgan, so there's a lot going on there and I just wonder, looking back at your career, as both a trader and a manager, what stands out to you is the biggest insight from your time in the industry? Vee Leung Phan: I traded most of the developed markets and quite a lot of the emerging markets, and in different countries, as you said, and, it was very interesting for me that I could figure out the markets very quickly, regardless of their idiosyncrasies. I think that was because, at the heart of it, every market is still driven by human activity, right?

Human instincts, human behaviours, that’s the commonality that runs through every single market, so, it came to a point where in our philosophy at Chase at a time, it really doesn't matter what your background is. You could be an Asian guy, but you could be parachute into Mexico and figure out the markets within one week to two weeks and then be really good at it after a few months. Of course, at the time, in the London trading room, the Asian guy typically was the IT guy.

I always felt that maybe it was a bit difficult for me, but my boss, who I later co-founded the hedge fund with, he ran the Scandinavian interest rate desk at that time, I guess I was the first guy originally from Asia to be trading in the Scandinavian markets. At the time it was still an emerging market, almost all my colleagues were all blonde with blue eyes. For some of them the first time they saw me eating ramen they thought it was very strange stuff *laughs*.

Jordan Michaelides: And this is in the ‘80s, was it? Vee Leung Phan: This was in 1997. Jordan Michaelides: Interesting.

If I think of how much London has changed, even just in the last seven years when it comes to Asian food, it's quite amazing. You could see that eating that it would sort of open a whole new world, you know? Vee Leung Phan: I think they were really just not adventurous.

They're always having a salad or a sandwich. It was just a new experience for them. Jordan Michaelides: So you think the biggest insight then, from your time was that in the industry, is that companies are essentially able to build up a person with a certain type of framework or certain type of mindset or principles and that allows that person to jump into any market and do as they please.

Do you think that’s accurate? Vee Leung Phan: Yes. So, the commonalities of different markets are similar in a sense?

Of course, the products are very different, it’s actually easier for an interest rate trader to trade FX, than for an FX trader to trade interest rates because there are so many more dimensions in interest rates. But besides that, if you’re a trader in Singapore and go to Hong Kong, it should only take a very take a very short period of time before you can learn how to trade that market. Some markets are more difficult than others if the news is in the local language, so you have a slightly slower reaction time, but generally we want people to get to that kind of level of expertise which, like you said, is basically a framework, you learn a set of principles to trading.

Jordan Michaelides: That sort of brings me to what you're doing now, which is both Track Record and Shentilium. In Singapore, and after your career within the industry, you had a few years off, taking a sabbatical, you now essentially run these two firms and, form memory, I think Track Record is more about financial training, like a financial trading Academy, which essentially conducts training for trading teams and banks as well as training programs for retail traders. I found that really interesting because now that you've spoken about that concept of of parachuting someone into a certain market, no matter what, that you're sort of taking that same mentality and teaching people and saying, hey, it doesn't really matter what market you're in, so long as you find follow these guidelines and principles, you will genuinely be able to work your way into a market as long as you're passionate about it.

I'm curious then, what are your general principles, how do you sort of generally teach people about this sort of stuff in your programs? What are some of the general principles that come from that? Vee Leung Phan: After I left finance, after I left Morgan Stanley, I did all the usual stuff like travel, learning things I wanted to learn, doing things I wanted to do to do, but I also spent a lot of time thinking about if I was given the opportunity to talk to my younger self, how would I teach him?

How can I teach him to be a better person, a better trader? That's how I came up with the trading framework. I call it a framework because it's not like a set of rules, it's a set of principles where you can adjust based on your own personality and how you can become a proficient trader.

You mentioned it’s interesting to you that our philosophy at the time was that we have to reach a level of proficiency where we can be parachuted into any market, in case some people go on vacation or there is a crisis, we will to be able to trade different markets in a very short period of time. One of the most common questions I get when I talk to people about my training program is, they love to ask, especially from the retail sector, are you teaching FX or are you teaching interest rates? They don't talk about interest rates they always say FX, commodities or equities, and they are very confused when I say my trading methods are agnostic, it really doesn't matter what markets you trade, as long as you follow these principles you will be successful over long periods of time.

It's very different from the trading providers that are commonly out there, especially for the retail sector, where they focus on the product, which I think is kind of a waste of time in the age of Google where you can just go online and learn all the product knowledge that you want for free, I don't believe in teaching people stuff that they can get online and charging a fee for it. If they’re not teaching product knowledge then it’s usually something that's very specific, they give it a cool name, call it their patented whatever, or the 3 principle management method, all these esoteric names of trading methods, and I think this is what captures the interest of retail traders because they always think that there's a secret to the trading that professionals know which they're not telling us. It's like the Holy grill and this guy on the internet is going to reveal it to me.

It’s a silver bullet, a secret method, and they are only sharing with you because they like you so much or because they’ve already made so much money that now they just want to share because Wall Street is taking advantage of Main Street and now they want to give something back, but only a limited amount of time, so call us now, you’ll be one of the few people they want to teach. People believe this, I find that kind of strange. So, my trading framework is based on a set of principles where I believe that the training process is simple, but it is not easy, and it's not easy because most of the things that you want to do, that you are your engineered by your DNA to do, and your human instincts, your human tendencies are really bad for trading.

You tend to be greedy, you tend to be fearful, you tend run with the mob, rush with the crowd into different things. That's all instinct that served us well in the Savannah when humans we're evolving, but it's not good at all for trading. This is what my framework does, it gives you a set of principals, a set off methods that you can use to stop yourself from blowing it up.

Jordan Michaelides: Yeah, it's just preventing that. I remember when I first got into the industry, when I was a lot younger, I lost a lot of money trading oil futures and that was sort of the moment where I took a step back and realized that it's all about protecting that downsize. I read a brilliant book about this, it's called ‘What I learned losing $1 million’.

It’s by an old CME exchange executive and how he lost, basically his whole life, how he destroyed his life. It's very, very fascinating, it’s one of those things that people are so often looking at the upside, but very rarely looking at the downside, which sort of brings me to the thought, you know, of the people you see, whether they're in the banking industry or they're retail traders, what do you think is the biggest mistake or waste of time that people make in this business? Vee Leung Phan: I guess the biggest mistakes that lead to eventual financial ruin is vanity.

Again, it’s a very human instinct, they allow success to go to their head, this happens for retail traders and professional traders, they start drinking their own kool-aid they think they've figured it out. That’s why most traders go through periods of a success and then an extremely bad result. They start to make money, they become more casual in their risk management, they start to take a lot more risk and blow their bank roll.

That’s the case with every successful trading story that you here, all the guys who are really successful in trading have long successful careers that that spans a number of years, not a flash in the pan or catching a bubble. When asked for the secret to their success, they will always credit it to a similar incident where they nearly lost everything or they did lose everything and then they realized that the most important thing is to stay in the game. When you start to get over confident, your ego gets in the way, you start to believe that you’re the best ever, that you've figured it all out.

As I look back upon the years on my career I find that the times that I lost the most money was always after a period of success. Jordan Michaelides: That's very interesting. Now, we're already running out of time, I'm going to have to try and convince you to come back on for another episode because there's a lot here I wanted to cover on the market itself, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis, but I'm going to have to finish off with some short, fast questions for you.

What does your morning routine currently look like? Vee Leung Phan: I wake up and check the news from overnight. That's quite easy now because we have a forum for this and I'll just read through the forum and see exactly what's going on in the markets Jordan Michaelides: And what about in the evening?

How do you sort of decompress at night? What do you get up to typically? Vee Leung Phan: To decompress, I have dinner with my friends, I like to read a bit or maybe watch a movie, nothing special, there's no secret routine.

I do try a bit of meditation now and then, when I’m going to go to sleep. Just 5 or 10 minute of medication. It helps.

Jordan Michaelides: And if you had to give the book to the audience, if you had to choose one book for Christmas time this year, something that's been the most influential on you, what would that book be? Vee Leung Phan: If we are talking about trading, my favorite trading book is called The Next Perfect Trade, it’s by a friend of mine I worked with at JP Morgan New York, he was a kind of a legend on the floor is one of the most successful traders that I've worked with. He’s put down his thoughts on how to find the next perfect trade I've been witness to the real deals, seen the way he's conducted his trading.

There are a lot of books out there that are written a friend and people who profess to know what trading is, and there are some real good books about trading, but quite often it concentrates on the life of the trader. This book talks about the process of trading, it’s a good book to have if you're talking about trading. In fact, at Track Record we have a few autographed copies that we would they have to share with members of the audience who write in with any thoughts or questions they have about this podcast.

Jordan Michaelides: So that’s by Alex Gurevich, is it? Vee Leung Phan: Yes, correct. Jordan Michaelides: I'm going to have to check that book out.

Last question for you, what has been the best purchase that's had the most positive impact or something that affects your life in a big way? That's under $200 USD. Vee Leung Phan: I guess that would be an internet connection? *laughs* Jordan Michaelides: *laughs* I like that.

Now, where can people find you on social media? On other websites and whatnot. Vee Leung Phan: They can check out our website www.trackrecordasia.com, my email address is there, they can email with comments or questions.

Jordan Michaelides: And for social media, on Twitter and Instagram it's TrackRecordAsia. Vee, thank you so much for doing this. It's been a pleasure having you on.

Like I said, it’d be great if we can twist your arm to come back on because there's still a lot I want to cover. Thank you for getting up early and doing this with us. Vee Leung Phan: No problem at all, it’s been great, thank you.

Thanks for having me. I'd love to come back. Jordan Michaelides: Awesome.

Outro: Thanks for listening to margin call. Before you run off, make sure you subscribe on your podcast app to get first access to new episodes and consider sharing this with your friends who love the Forex safety game. Don't forget to like us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or YouTube by searching Go Markets.

Until next time, thanks for listening.

热门话题

在本次苹果发布会之前，很多对苹果此次iPad发布会寄予了厚望：第一个是将iPad Pro变革为多年来一直期待的，可以真正变成笔记本电脑的替代品；二是其中可以加入人工智能功能，让已经有些“性能过剩”的强大处理器有更多实用价值，甚至在日常轻松环境下也能发挥其作用。结果，苹果只实现了其中一个愿望，吗？

（Source：Apple）新款iPad Pro支持外接显示器，这显著提升了其多任务处理能力。然而，是否能将其当作常规电脑使用还有待验证。苹果宣称，在其新发布的11英寸和13英寸iPad Pro中植入了极速的人工智能处理能力的芯片。该设备搭载的是全新的苹果硅M4芯片，而不是预期中的M3芯片。这一点其实也出乎了不少人的预料。考虑到去年的型号采用了M2芯片，这一跳跃式升级可以说幅度还是挺大的。对于这个变动，苹果解释到，选择M4而非M3，是因为新款OLED显示屏需要更强大的图形处理能力。我们可以了解到，这款iPad Pro的显示屏采用了两层OLED面板的设计，以达到更高的亮度水平。尽管OLED面板本身已经非常明亮，但苹果认为这一设计仍有其必要性。

（Source：Engadget）此外，M4芯片在性能功耗比上也有所提高，这一点对于确保iPad Pro的超薄设计至关重要。苹果指出，新款iPad Pro是迄今为止最薄的设备，其薄度超过了iPhone和2005年的iPod Nano。在超薄设计中，有效控制发热量是设计的重要考虑因素。希望超薄的设计在进行复杂功能运算的时候可以保证热量没那么高吧。（毕竟隔壁的mac air 没有风扇情况下，做大型工作真的有点烫）。

（Source：Apple）再来看新的Magic Keyboard，这个设计类似于笔记本电脑的键盘。苹果声称，新的M4芯片在性能上与现有的M2芯片相当，但能耗只有后者的一半。M4芯片不仅提供了卓越的图形处理性能，还在人工智能处理能力上有所突破，如果真的属实，那么这些功能超过了目前市场上新出现的AI导向的Windows笔记本电脑。苹果还比较了iPad Pro的M4芯片与笔记本电脑芯片的性能，强调新芯片在使用电量上大为节约，从而提供与笔记本电脑相当的性能，同时具有更长的电池寿命。这个还得实际进行测试才知道。

（Source：9To5mac）尽管iPad Pro拥有如此强大的功能，但苹果似乎仍未完全释放其作为笔记本替代品的潜力。除了改进的键盘和iPadOS中提到的多窗口管理功能外，这次发布会并未深入展示iPad Pro作为笔记本电脑的全面功能。然而，苹果还有机会在即将到来的全球开发者大会上宣布进一步的iPadOS软件更新，这可能会将iPad Pro 进行进一步优化，有可能真正实现其作为笔记本电脑的替代品的潜力。毕竟，iPadOS是基于MacOS的，苹果完全有能力进一步优化其系统，使其功能更加全面。当时整体看下来，ipad pro的价格非常高昂，再加上还需要配键盘，发热问题还有待测试，个人认为目前Ipad定位有点“鸡肋”。就目前看来，超过2000澳元的13寸iPad 换成一台mac air甚至mac pro不香吗？我觉得要想替代笔记本，首先就是价格方面需要亲民一些，要不然大家没有更新换代动力。其次，M4芯片未来也会上Mac，那么只能说可以先体验AI这些功能，而不是一个可替代性的优势。希望苹果可以好好考虑下iPad未来发展和定位，要不然就会成为“鸡肋”甚至未来肯能会被淘汰的产品。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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在生成式人工智能的赛道上，OpenAI似乎就没输过。近期OpenAI再一次备受瞩目是发布sora 模型实现通过文字描述生成、改变、衔接视频的功能，而预计定于5月9日的发布会将会揭晓其研发的AI搜索产品引擎功能，或将再一次引爆AI市场。

在21世纪的第三个十年，AI行业在经过了20年的技术积累之后，终于由OpenAI第一次引领潮流成功研发出了生成式人工智能，ChatGPT交互语言模型的诞生，使人类感受到了有问必答，拥有一个超强大脑是什么感觉，自己也能够变成一部百科全书的感觉有多爽。当然弊端是这也同时成了学生写作业以及考试作弊的利器。而后又随着其升级完善研发出GPT-4,能够处理更加庞大更加复杂的信息，新增了能够识别解说图像特点，按照特定条件创作文章的功能，并且优化了其逻辑推理能力。OpenAI引领了交互语言模型的潮流并使其发展逐渐迈向成熟。使基于语言的人工智能应用程序迈入了新篇章。截至2023年，生成式AI领域的大模型开发赛道已经有15家独角兽企业估值超过了10亿美元。OpenAI几乎是以超一倍的成果领先，且OpenAI也以一己之成功有效缩短了这15家公司达到独角兽估值门槛的年限，由平均7年缩短至4年。

Source：Turing post而生成式AI总投资也在2023年跃升至141亿美元，涨幅高达464%。

Source：CB Insights2024年OpenAI又一次在生成式AI的应用赛道上引领了潮流 --- 人形机器人赛道。他押注人形机器人领域独角兽公司Figure AI，在投资500万美元的同时也嵌入了其大模型算法为机器人提供了超强大脑，Figure AI公司自己提供了机器人的肉身，合体之后的机器人成品展示出了就是一个能够读懂指令，做出相应动作的人型机器人。他可以观察环境，可以说话，还可以完成传递物品，捡东西和洗碗甚至煮咖啡等复杂动作。这标志着人类文明离使用智能机器人取代人工提高生产效率，彻底解决劳动力短缺的目标更近了一步。

Figure AI作为于2022年才成立的公司，在此次研发之前市值就已达约20亿美元，新一轮融资达6.75亿美元获得贝佐斯，英伟达，微软和OpenAI的加持。Figure AI是在合适的时间出现在了合适的赛道可以用来被下注制衡马斯克的Optimus人形机器人的合适的企业。天时地利人和成就了Figure AI的成功。但并不是每一家身处AI赛道的初创企业都能够正好遇到如此得天独厚的条件。现在的这种只要是跟AI行业相关的初创企业，便很容易能够获得动辄数千万上亿的融资的现象又是否是一种AI行业泡沫正在形成的预示呢？英伟达作为AI芯片的龙头企业，其提供的算力支持是各大科技公司的首要选择。其芯片被各大科技巨头疯抢，股价在2023年累计暴涨240%，2024开年至今也实现了超90%的暴涨。这足见AI领域的火热投资情绪。

但AI受到过度追捧的原因之一还有美元发行过度之后美元贬值，大部分投资者就希望通过投资使美元保值，当大量资金无处可去时，AI行业作为一个高度烧钱的行业自然就成为了成为承接这些资金的不二选择，但这也同时加剧了AI行业的泡沫化进程,融资门槛变低了，这个行业的创业者变得更多了。也许在这一场AI赛道的比拼中，不乏脱颖而出的黑马，但客观的说AI领域的发展仍是不能确定的，也不可能所有的创业者都能够成功，一定会有被淘汰的企业以及投资者成为这场泡沫的牺牲品。

但我还是很期待AI行业究竟能够发展成什么样子？我们现在科幻大片里的那些酷炫的人工智能在几十年后能否被完美实现呢？最后究竟会是人工智能终将取代人类主宰世界还是人工智能会与人类相辅相成共创智慧生活新篇章呢？我们拭目以待。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Olivia Huang | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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澳洲2024年不降息，这个方法可以帮忙增加现金流。昨天澳洲联储主席讲话，关于通胀和利息，都给出了参考建议。跟我此前预计的差不多。从去年开始，很多华人从网上获取了很多关于降息预期的新闻。其实只要澳联储依旧以通胀为衡量利息水平的核心标准，那么大幅度降息是不可能的。很多人去年觉得，2024年连续利息最终会降到3的价格水平线，而我当时就表态，这不可能，最多降息1次，且最多0.25%。

昨天的讲话中，澳联储表示没有看到通胀出现脱轨的现象，这不错，至少不用担心继续加息了。央行还说，如果服务业通胀陷入停滞，我们将不得不采取行动。希望我们不必提高利率，但如有需要将会这样做。这句话就很模糊。用数学的逻辑来说就是，如果通胀水平继续上涨1，那么加息的概率会超过50%。央行认为我们的利率处于适当水平。必须对高通胀风险保持警惕。所以，通胀依旧是核心，通胀不降，利息不降。总结来说，昨天的央行纪要：1. 本次利率水平：澳洲联储连续第四次将政策利率维持在4.35%不变，符合市场预期。2. 给市场的前瞻指引：预测利率在2025年年中之前保持在4.35%，这个消息比之前市场普遍预计的降息时间要延长九个月。3. 对澳洲的通胀预期：预计短期整体通胀率将上升，核心通胀将更为缓慢地放缓。这点和我认为的一致。澳洲通胀是输入型通胀，不是说本土的经济复苏，劳动力复苏就可以缓解的。输入型通胀意味着制造业国家的通胀下降，澳洲的通胀才会下降。也就是中国通胀和东南亚国家通胀下行回落才可以缓解澳洲通胀数据。本质上来说，很难，很被动。你要变好，取决于其他国家先变好，澳洲的经济结构在对抗通胀方面，很弱势。中国和东南亚基础制造业和原材料成本上涨，包括中国劳动力，电力等生产资料成本上升，最终都会传递到澳洲，导致最终成品价格上涨。

4. 经济预期：预测2024年12月GDP增幅为1.6%，2025年12月为2.3%，2026年6月为2.4%。经济的恢复是预料中的事情，但是经济好不代表可以降息，还是要看通胀。5. 就业市场：劳动力市场比之前假设的要紧张，经济中的闲置产能减少，工资增长超过可持续水平。这对我们打工人来说是个好事情，中高端的劳动力缺口较大。澳元是被低估的，目前全球购买力偏弱。是因为目前澳洲大量的资源在国际市场上，逐渐失去价格优势。红酒，有阿根廷，欧洲的。旅游业，没有日本目前对国际游客有吸引力。矿产，现在基本都是在非洲和南美洲，以及俄罗斯及中亚，哈萨克斯坦等国家的出口靠前。澳洲在国际贸易中的核心地位下降了，实际对澳币的贸易需求就下降了。所以，澳元和新西兰的纽币目前在主要货币对中处于低谷。这对中长期投资者是一件利好。因为经济周期是相对确定的，经济周期背后就是汇率周期。所以当澳币回升到0.75附近合理价格的时候，我们投资者就可以获利颇丰。如果对澳元美金不太了解的，依旧可以参考澳元人民币的投资，之前和大家说过的，4.6附近买入，4.7上方卖出，是投资里面相对比较简单的一个策略。如果大家有换汇需求，也可以每天用软件看一下，提前锁住汇率。

股票推荐：澳洲PDN等铀矿股，半年前就开始推荐，目前今年涨幅接近80%，继续创出新高，距离前期历史高点仍有3倍空间。Paladin Energy +8.6%，AGL Energy +7.4%，昨天涨幅居前。想要了解为什么这类股票上涨，请看Youtube我们之前的网课和视频，对AI发展背后的能源需求有详细的介绍。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管