市场资讯及洞察

With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest being Governing Council member Madis Muller who seemed to stress exactly that point this week. EURUSD has been trading lately It appears that the divergence narrative - triggered by US data and the ECB in-meeting communication – has started to fade slightly, With EURUSD bouncing nicely off support at 1.06 over the last week.

Improvements in the eurozone economic outlook probably playing a role in making the hawks reluctant to give in to a dovish policy path. A June cut is still the base case, but the accompanying message may fail to push rates much lower. That potentially limits how far EURUSD can fall on higher USD rates.

Today, the ECB publishes the CPI expectation surveys for March. In February, the 1-year gauge came in at 3.1% and the 3-year at 2.4%. Expectations are probably for a nudge lower in both surveys.

Still, the dollar story should drive most EURUSD moves today: we see risks skewed to a higher dollar and do not see the pair being able to trade sustainably at 1.0700+.

Q1 earnings season is nearly finished but there are still a few companies expected to release their latest results for the previous quarter. On Wednesday, Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS) announced their latest financial results. American company that specializes in the manufacturing and sale of workwear and uniforms achieved revenue of $2.406 billion in fiscal 2024 third quarter, which was above analyst estimate of $2.39 billion.

Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $3.84 vs. $3.576 per share expected. Revenue and EPS were up by 9.9% and 22.3% year-over-year respectively. Company overview Founded: 1929 Headquarters: Mason, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 44,500 (2023) Industry: Service Key people: Todd Schneider (CEO), Scott D.

Farmer (Executive Chairman), Mike Thompson (Executive Vice President and CAO) CEO commentary "Our third quarter results reflect the outstanding dedication and execution of our employees, whom we call partners. Each of our operating segments continue to execute at a high level, which led to robust revenue growth of 9.9%, record high gross margin of 49.4%, record high operating margin of 21.6% and diluted EPS growth of 22.3%," Todd Schneider, CEO of Cintas said in a statement to shareholders. Schneider also announced that the company is raising its guidance for 2024: "Based on our third quarter results, we are increasing our full fiscal year financial guidance.

We are raising our annual revenue expectations from a range of $9.48 billion to $9.56 billion to a range of $9.57 billion to $9.60 billion and our diluted EPS from a range of $14.35 to $14.65 to a range of $14.80 to $15.00." Stock reaction The stock was up by over 9% on Wednesday, trading at above $700 level for the first time ever during the trading session. Stock performance 5 day: +8.56% 1 month: +9.29% 3 months: +13.71% Year-to-date: +14.38% 1 year: +48.20% Cintas stock price targets Barclays: $700 Truist Financial: $660 Stifel: $585 Royal Bank of Canada: $645 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $640 Deutsche Bank: $590 Citigroup: $530 Robert W. Baird: $540 Bank of America: $565 Wells Fargo & Company: $500 UBS Group: $575 Morgan Stanley: $441 Argus: $540 Jefferies Financial Group: $487 Cintas Corporation is the 261 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $69.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cintas Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

What a week and a half we have had - Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves). Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let’s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates on hold at 4.35%, this was expected however the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 is fading fast.

That was brought to light in the statement and Michele Bullock’s press conference. Here's a breakdown of the key points: Inflation Dynamics: The RBA notes that inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Services inflation is moderating gradually, driven by a labour market that the RBA now perceives as tighter than previously assessed.

This indicates that the labour market conditions are exerting influence on inflation dynamics. Monetary Policy: The RBA views its current monetary policy stance as restrictive, with the cash rate level seen as supportive of achieving the target inflation range of 2–3%. However the Board did leave the door open for all movements both hikes and cuts if inflation doesn’t return target inside a meaningful timeframe.

Other Considerations: The RBA remains attentive to developments in the global and domestic economy, the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Thus, it remains data-dependent to policy decisions. What caught our attention the most was the shift in language, particularity the downplaying of supply-side inflation and the attention on domestic demand which is still be too high leading to the same sticky inflation effect we are seeing in the US.

The FX market reaction was mixed on all this, the initial reaction was bearish as the more hawkish bets of the previous few weeks unwound. However, the AUD remains one of the best performing currencies in the G10. With the RBA signalling that its next move may still be a hike it is likely to remain in the ascendancy against those FX players that are facing confirmed cuts in the coming months.

BoE and GBP It seems like the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating through some interesting waters with its monetary policy decisions. The Board voted 7-2 vote to keep rates at 5.25%, but it was Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks post the decisions that caught the market’s attention hinting at a potential shift towards a sharper and faster accommodative stance. The fact that money markets are fully pricing in a rate cut by August, with a considerable probability assigned to a cut in June (44%), indicates a significant anticipation of policy easing.

But Bailey’s suggestion suggests it could be sooner and stronger than priced. No doubt the BoE's decision-making will indeed be influenced by upcoming data on wage settlements and inflation. But it’s clear the impact on the GBP is one way and that is down, particularly when it’s against the likes of the USD or AUD.

It’s a slight more mixed position against the EUR, SEK and CAD as their respective banks are also pointing to rate cuts. ECB and the EUR The EUR is facing a mixed bag having eased through the year but is facing a complex interplay between economic data, market sentiment, and central bank expectations. For example despite some mixed German economic indicators, EUR managed to strengthen last week supported by positive developments in German exports and stronger Eurozone retail sales.

The real headwind for the EUR is the speculation of when (not if) European Central Bank (ECB) will rate cuts. Speculation is rising that next month’s meeting will be the start point after the minutes from the last meeting reinforced dovish bets. Something to watch, the upcoming release of May’s ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany could provide further insight into the economic outlook.

If the sentiment continues to improve, particularly in the Eurozone's largest economy, it could lend support to the EUR amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding ECB policy decisions. Watch the likes of EURGBP and EURSEK in particular. Riksbank and SEK And finally, a mover.

For the first time in 8 years the Riksbank lowered its key interest rate to 3.75% after a two-year period of rate hikes. Governor Erik Thedeen's indication that two more rate cuts are likely in the second half of the year, contingent upon inflation remaining subdued, reflects the proactive stance aimed at supporting economic stability from the Bank. However, Thedeen's emphasized caution as the economic landscape and potential risks associated with policy changes could change the Bank’s outlook.

This could explain the reaction of the SEK to the rate cut a short-lived weakening then a recovery. This highlights the interplay between monetary policy as bigger players such as the BoE and ECB could overrun the dovishness in the smaller SEK for the bigger EUR and GBP.

One of the largest software companies in the world, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) announced Q1 FY2024 earnings results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. The company achieved revenue of $5.182 billion – a new record vs. $5.143 billion expected. Revenue grew by 11% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $4.48 (up from $3.80 in 2023) vs. $4.377 per share estimate. Adobe expects revenue of between $5.25 and $5.30 billion for the current quarter, which would fall below Wall Street estimate of $5.31 billion. EPS expected at between $4.35 and $4.40 vs. $4.37 per share estimate.

Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary "Adobe drove record Q1 revenue demonstrating strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud," Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a press release to shareholders. "We’ve done an incredible job harnessing the power of generative AI to deliver groundbreaking innovation across our product portfolio," Narayen added. Stock reaction There was no major movement in Adobe share price before the earnings call. The stock was down by 0.54% at $570.45 a share.

Shares fell by around 10% in the after-hours trading despite beating analyst estimates on future guidance. Stock performance 5 day: +2.59% 1 month: -3.39% 3 months: -2.43% Year-to-date: -4.38% 1 year: +61.47% Adobe stock price targets BNP Paribas: $499 Piper Sandler: $705 Barclays: $700 Stifel Nicolaus: $625 Royal Bank of Canada: $615 Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Argus: $611 Wolfe Research: $650 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 42 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $258.15 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.

To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) announced Q2 of fiscal 2024 earnings results before the US market opened on Thursday. Irish-American professional services company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimate of $15.847 billion at $15.8 billion. Earnings per share reached $2.77 for the quarter vs. $2.661 per share expected.

Company overview Founded: 1989 Headquarters: Dublin, Ireland Number of employees: 733,000 (2023) Industry: Professional services, information technology consulting Key people: Julie Sweet (Chair and CEO) CEO commentary "In an uncertain macro environment, we remain the trusted partner to our clients for reinvention with a record 39 clients with quarterly bookings of over $100 million. We also extended our early lead in generative AI with $1.1 billion in new bookings in the first half of the year. And we are investing to serve the needs of our clients and expand our growth opportunities with $2.9 billion of capital deployed in the first half in strategic acquisitions.

Thank you to our more than 740,000 people around the world for your dedication to delivering value for our clients," Julie Sweet, CEO of Accenture said in a note to shareholders. Stock reaction Share price fell by around 9% on Thursday to $346.12 a share – the lowest level since January. Stock performance 5 day: +0.59% 1 month: +2.46% 3 months: +9.09% Year-to-date: +8.42% 1 year: +40.04% Accenture stock price targets Guggenheim: $425 Redburn Atlantic: $445 Morgan Stanley: $417 Stifel Nicolaus: $395 Piper Sandler: $394 Citigroup: $430 Robert W.

Baird: $375 Bank of America: $419 Royal Bank of Canada: $374 Mizuho: $426 UBS Group: $400 BNP Paribas: $440 BMO Capital Markets: $385 Wedbush: $360 TD Cowen: $360 Barclays: $390 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $341 Accenture plc is the 44 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $238.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Accenture plc (NYSE: CAN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".

GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Accenture plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题

经历了一轮大幅度暴跌之后，市场波动把投资者和投机者们都吓坏了，包括我。果断砍了仓，结果有很多订单平在地板上。这一波神操作，把日本央行也吓到了。副行长立马表态，“不会在市场不稳定的时候加息，目前需要坚定地实施宽松政策。”市场终于可以放松一下了，也验证了我昨天分享给大家的想法：这次的暴跌，源于日元套利盘离场以及欧洲老钱的全球资产保值（抵御之后的降息货币）。所以，最终表现在亚洲盘，日本股市和汇率波动最大，其次是亚洲盘的澳元和纽币，而美股和美国华尔街代表的资产标的，波动较小，美国经济数据差，但是距离衰退还有很久，美国市场算作正常调整。在日股和日元双双起舞，带崩全球市场之后，日本央行顶不住了，“放鸽”投降 。我估计可能华尔街给日本央行打电话了，说不要把日本的问题，波动到美国市场。然后，内田真一发表讲话了，讲话期间，美元兑日元大幅度走高，几句话，美日从145上升到147，涨幅超过2%。市场喊话：直接从“ICU”冲进“KTV”，此前受到影响的科技股“七姐妹”，Meta，特斯拉，谷歌，微软，亚马逊，英伟达，苹果，大部分也开始回升。大家如果有想抄底的，最近到9月，都是不错的机会，可以适当关注一些值得长期配置的股票。

目前市场的基准步调是：担心经济衰退，担心政治风险，担心很多，但是，钱印出来了，印了很多，不会消失，稍微放放水，未来就是泛滥成灾，所以，又没有那么担心，一切都靠纸币支撑，付出的是最廉价的成本。所以，市场出现异动不可怕，只要有政府和央行兜底就可以。另外，也再次看出来，新的进场机会，在于几个指标：1. 美国股票指数没有下跌。美国股市代表的是国际产业资本，全球范围内大部分富豪群体的主要资产都在美国股票市场中，包括很多美国政客。华尔街的收入也主要来自于美国股市。因此，我们要看的是WS30和NDX100这两个指标，是否会创出新低。如果在恐慌期间，没有创出新低，或者晚上美国开盘，有明显的拉盘迹象，出现大阳线，那么意味着美国股市代表的美国经济，还是比较稳健的。

2. CHF，或者USDCHF。如果这个货币对下跌，意味着欧洲的老钱们对美元资产失去兴趣，开始回归欧洲，选择货币稳定性最高的瑞士法郎。作为中立国，瑞士法郎在全球购买力，一直很稳定。看一下1980年至今的AUDCHF汇率走势就知道了，AUD兑CHF购买力夏经75%。USDCHF买张涨是有利息可以拿的，如果资本放弃了利息，放弃了套息交易，意味着损失了年化3-8%的无风险收益。但是，老钱们看的不是几个点的相对无风险收益，如果美元贬值，未来他们所谓的无风险套息收益，实际购买力在全球范围来看，可能也会下降。他们看重的是100元的购买力，经历100年，能够买的黄金还是那么多，能够买的土地还是那么多，在任何国家的货币贬值和通胀背景下，购买力要最稳健。如果这两个产品没有大的暴动，只有澳元汇率，日元汇率，或者局部地区的股市和比特币发生大的波动，那就不能够被认为恐慌继续蔓延，或家具加剧。当然，局部地区的产品或货币波动，是正常的，风险情绪或者说对未来经济和货币政策差异化的担忧，引发的抛售，是合理的。快速的下跌，是好于无休止的缓慢下跌。大家在一个没有波动的缓慢下行市场里才是最难受的。

总之，在最近2个月时间，很多标的会因为大波动，迎来不错的买入机会，包括汇率，股市等等，大家做好准备。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管