市场资讯及洞察
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全球石油市场的稳定,很大程度上悬于几条关键的海上通道。这其中,霍尔木兹海峡无疑是重中之重。“全球约20%的石油都得从这儿过”,这个说法流传很广。它并非夸张,而是揭示了全球能源供应链的一个结构性现实。要理解这个现象,我们需要从它的地理位置、贸易格局和经济影响说起。
1. 地理瓶颈:无法绕行的“世界油阀”霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼与伊朗之间,是连接波斯湾与阿拉伯海的唯一水道。对沙特、伊拉克、阿联酋这些波斯湾沿岸的产油大户来说,这里是他们把石油运往全球市场的几乎唯一海上出口。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据,2024年,每天约有 2,000万桶 石油及成品油穿过海峡。这个数字,相当于:
- 全球石油液体日消费量的 20%。
- 全球海运石油贸易总量的 25% 以上。
之所以如此依赖这条水道,并非偶然。独特的地理位置、产油国集中的港口布局、以及替代方案的极度稀缺,三者共同造就了它今天的地位。

近年来的运输量数据,也印证了这一点。下图显示,通过海峡的石油运输量长期维持在极高水平。

2. 贸易格局:谁在出口?谁在进口?
谁在出口,谁又在进口?海峡的贸易流向,就像一面镜子,照出了全球石油的供需格局。
主要出口国:海峡的石油主要来自波斯湾内的产油国。2023年的数据显示,供给侧高度集中:

主要进口方:相比之下,需求侧更加集中,主要在亚洲。EIA估算,2024年从霍尔木兹海峡运出的原油与凝析油中,约 84% 都流向了亚洲市场。其中,中国、印度、日本和韩国 是四个最主要的买家。这就意味着,一旦海峡发生航运中断或地缘政治风险,第一波冲击将直接传导至亚洲的炼厂和能源市场,并迅速通过布伦特原油这样的全球基准,影响世界经济。
3. 替代方案:管道与运力的“远水”与“近渴”
既然霍尔木兹海峡如此关键,难道没有备用方案来分散风险吗?答案是:有,但能力非常有限。
主要的陆上替代方案,是沙特和阿联酋运营的两条输油管道。

下表对比了海峡的日常流量与几个关键替代方案的运力。

至于油轮,船队通常都在高负荷运转,闲置的本就不多。一旦需要绕行非洲好望角这样的长航线,不仅运输时间和成本会暴增,全球的有效运力也会被大量占用,加剧市场本就紧张的神经。
4. 风险传导:从地缘政治到市场价格为什么霍尔木兹海峡的风险,总能迅速搅动全球油价?关键在于,短期内,无论是石油的生产还是消费,都缺乏弹性,很难快速调整。历史上,任何对海峡通航的威胁,都会立刻反映在价格上。下面的时间线和图表,就回顾了近年的几次典型风险事件。

2019年9月沙特石油设施遇袭后,布伦特原油价格的急剧跳升,就让市场感受到了供给中断的寒意。

市场如何消化这种风险呢?通常有几种方式:
- 即期价格跳升:交易员出于避险,会立即将最坏情景计入价格。
- 期货期限结构变化:对未来供给短缺的担忧,会推高近期合约的价格,形成“现货溢价”。
- 风险溢价:金融机构通过期权等工具,把地缘政治风险量化为每桶数美元不等的溢价,叠加在基础油价之上。
由单一通道风险引发的价格冲击,会沿着下面的链条,最终传导到整个宏观经济层面。

结语
霍尔木兹海峡的核心地位,根植于地理的唯一性、产油国港口的集中布局,以及替代方案的严重不足。全球五分之一的石油供给被锁定在这条狭窄水道上,而现有的管道和运力冗余远不足以对冲一次大规模中断。
这不只是一个运输瓶颈的问题。它意味着,任何围绕海峡的地缘政治摩擦,都有可能在短时间内转化为油价的剧烈波动,并沿着通胀和货币政策的链条向全球经济传导。对于关注能源市场和宏观风险的投资者而言,霍尔木兹海峡始终是一个不可忽视的变量。
参考文献与数据来源
- 1EIA (2025-06-16), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepointhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
- 2EIA (2024-06), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (PDF; Table 3 含 2018–2023 海峡通行量与全球海运石油贸易/消费口径) https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/world_oil_transit_chokepoints/wotc.pdf
- 3EIA (2017-08-04), Three important oil trade chokepoints are located around the Arabian Peninsulahttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32352
- 4EIA, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Daily history table) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm
- 5IEA (2019-10), Oil Market Report October 2019 (PDF; 2019年9月事件、库存与期货结构) https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/953b7442-bc56-467d-94ef-7cded75d0843/October_2019_OMR.pdf
- 6Morgan Stanley (2026-02-26), Thoughts on the Market — Oil Rallies on Fresh Uncertainty (transcript; 风险溢价示例与期限结构识别) https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/oil-market-rally-geopolitical-risks-martijn-rats
- 7IMF Working Paper (2022), Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shockshttps://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022173-print-pdf.pdf
- 8BIS Working Paper (2010), Oil shocks and optimal monetary policyhttps://www.bis.org/publ/work307.pdf
- 9FRBSF Working Paper (2023), How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Responsehttps://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2024-07.pdf
- 10UNCTAD (2024), Review of Maritime Transport 2024 — Chapter 2 (全球船队与油轮占比)https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2024ch2_en.pdf
- 11Reuters (2025-12-15), Oil tanker rates to stay strong into 2026…(VLCC 利用率/闲置口径) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-tanker-rates-stay-strong-into-2026-sanctions-remove-ships-hire-2025-12-15/
- 12Reuters (2025-06-18), Goldman estimates geopolitical risk premium…(风险溢价区间示例) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-estimates-geopolitical-risk-premium-around-10-per-barrel-brent-after-2025-06-18/

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - R Rally A rally refers to the price of an asset undergoing sustained upward momentum over a period of time. Range Range is the difference between a market’s lowest and highest point over a specified period of time. If a market has a wide range during a given period this is an indication of high volatility, and may be utilized in certain trading strategies.
Rate-of-return ROR, Rate-of-return, is the profit or loss of an investment over a given period. ROR is expressed as a percentage, with a positive ROR reflecting that an investment has returned a profit, while a negative ROR means a loss. Ratio spread Ratio spread options trading strategy where a trader will hold an unequal number of buy and sell positions on a single underlying asset at the same time.
Reserves Reserves are the liquid assets set aside for future use by a trader. Reserves can be held in the form of commodities, such as gold, but usually traders will keep cash as it is more immediately accessible. Resistance level Resistance level is the price at which an assets upward price trajectory is hindered by an overwhelming demand to sell the asset.
When an asset appears to be nearing a resistance level, traders may close their position in order to take profit, rather than risk the price falling to a lower price. Reversal (Trend reversal) A reversal is a change of direction in the price movement of an asset, e.g. when an upward trend becomes a downward trend, or vice versa. Rights issue When a company offers existing shareholders the opportunity to buy additional shares for a discounted price, this is referred to as a Rights issue.
The discounted price will usually only be available for a brief period, before returning to the normal price. Learn more about Rights issues Risk management Risk management refers to a variety of processes or strategies, the ultimate goal of which is to identify the potential risk of investments and mitigate potential losses. Risks In trading, "risk" refers to any potential event or circumstance in which and investment can lose money.
Regulatory News Service (UK) The RNS is responsible for disseminating information on behalf of UK publicly listed companies. The RNS operates as part of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and provides companies with information to help them to meet their regulatory disclosure obligations. ROCE (Return on capital employed) ROCE refers to a long-term profitability ratio which measures how effectively capital is used by a company, e.g. profit generated for each each dollar used.
Rollover A rollover refers to keeping a position open beyond its expiry date. Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI is a tool used in technical analysis to gauge whether an asset is potentially overbought or oversold, and to predict if a rally or correction may be imminent. Learn more about RSI.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Q Quantitative easing An economic monetary policy intended to lower interest rates and increase money supply can be defined as Quantitative easing (QE). It saw an increase in profile and use after the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession. Quote currency The second currency listed in a forex pair is termed as the quote currency.
It is also known as the counter currency. Quote The price at which an asset was last traded, or the price at which it can be currently bought or sold is defined as Quote

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - O OCO (one cancels the other) OCO allows many orders to be placed at once. Whichever order is filled first will cancel the other automatically. OCO can be used to close an existing position or take advantage of market volatility.
Learn more about OCO Off book trades An "off-book" trade refers to trading shares outside of an exchange or regulated body. Off-book traders are usually executed via the over-the-counter (OTC) market, and made directly between two parties. Offer The term "offer" describes when one trader expresses an intention to buy a financial instrument or asset from another trader.
On exchange On exchange refers to a trade is taking place directly on an order book. On-balance volume (OBV) On-balance volume is a method of technical analysis where traders make predictions about an asset's future price movements based on its previous trading volume. OBV is regularly used in shares trading as volume has a large influence how a share price moves.
OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, Venezuela. Other countries that have since joined OPEC since include the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of the Congo and Ecuador. Learn more about OPEC Open (Market) The market "open" can refer to the daily opening of an exchange Open (order/position) An open order refers to an outstanding trading order/position that has not yet been filled/closed.
When a trade is executed, or a position closed, the profits and losses a are realised and the trade is no longer open. Option Options are a type of derivative specifically linked to an underlying asset. The Buyer of an option has the choice of whether or not to receive futures relating to an asset at a predetermined price, volume and expiry date.
Order An "order" is a request sent to a broker or trading platform instructing them to execute a particular trade. OTC trade (Over the Counter) An OTC trade is an agreement between two parties, not executed through an exchange. This allows increased flexibility compared to trading on the market, as contractual terms can be negotiated directly between the two parties.
Overexposure Overexposure refers to a trader taking on too much risk. A typical instance of this is when a trader invests too much capital in a single position or market; putting the trader in the position where an unfavorable movement of a single instrument can result in dramatic losses.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - P Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) A company's P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the company’s market value per share by its earnings per share, and is a method for measuring a company’s value. Learn more about P/E ratios Learn more about P/E red flags Parent company Parent company refers to the entity which has a majority or controlling interest in another company, giving it the right to control the subsidiary’s operations. Pip A 'pip' is a measurement of movement in Forex trading; it is the smallest amount that a currency can change.
Pip value The pip value is the value attributed to a single pip move in a Forex (FX) trade. Purchasing managers index (PMI) PMI is an indicator of the health of a particular sector within an economy. Learn more about PMI Portfolio (Investment portfolio) Portfolio refers to the collection of assets held by a trader or trading entity, this can include shares, commodities, bonds, derivatives etc.
Position "Position" refers to an open trade, held by a trader, that is able to incur a profit or loss. Once a trade has been closer or canceled, the trader no longer holds that position. The actual profit or loss of a trade is not realised until the position has been closed.
Position Sizing Learn more about Position Sizing. Power of attorney (POA) Power of attorney gives another person or entity legal authority to act on your behalf. In trading, this means access to financial resources, trading accounts, the ability to open or close trading positions etc.
If POA is given to a legal entity, representatives within that entity authorized to act on your behalf will be listed specifically. Profit and loss (P&L) A profit and loss statement is a financial report summarizing a company’s gross revenue, expenses and profit. It provides traders and investors with a snapshot of how well a company is operating and it's potential to generate profit.
Pullback A pullback is a temporary dip an asset’s otherwise current trend. Not to be confused with a reversal, which is a longer term switch in an assets (previously) trending direction. Put Option A 'Put Options' is a contract giving a trader the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific amount of an underlying contract, at a specific price, at a specific time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - N Net change Net change refers to the difference between the closing price of the current trading session and the closing price of the previous trading session. This can be positive or negative, and simply represents whether a market is up or down compared to the previous day. Net income Net income is the total amount of profit made by an organization after all expenses, depreciation, amortization, interest, taxes etc. are deducted from it's gross income.
NIKKEI The NIKKEI index is the leading 225 stocks traded on Tokyo's Stock Exchange. Non-current assets Non-current assets are company’s long-term investments of which the full value will not be realized during the current accounting year, such as land holdings. Non-farm payrolls Non-farm payrolls gives monthly statistics describing number of people who are employed in construction, manufacturing and goods companies in the US.
Also referred to as NFP's. Learn more about Non-farm payrolls

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - M Macro-based A trading strategy driven by macroeconomic factors. Maintenance margin Also known as the "variation margin", the maintenance margin is the amount of funds that must be available to keep a margin trade open. Margin call A margin call is when a broker requests an increase maintenance margin from a trader, in order to keep a leveraged trade open.
A margin call occurs when the percentage of an investor’s equity in falls below the broker’s required amount; this occurs after a position decreases significantly enough in value. Margin calls are charged to limit exposure to the participants, and mitigate risk to the broker. Margin Margin is the amount of funds required to open and maintain a leveraged position. e.g. a $500,000 position leveraged at 500:1 would required $1,000 in funds from the trader.
Margin deposit A margin deposit is the amount a trader needs to put up in order to open a leveraged position. This can also be referred to as the initial margin, or simply as the deposit Market capitalisation A companies market capitalisation is the total market value of the company’s shares on the market. Market capitalisation, or "market cap", is simple way for investors to gauge a company’s size, which can factor into their investment strategy.
Market data Market data refers to live streaming of trade-related data. This information can include market volume, price, bid and ask quotes and more. Marketing data is available on virtually all markets including commodities, shares, indices, FX etc.
Learn more about Market data releases Market maker A market maker is an trader that buys and sells large amounts of a particular asset in order to facilitate liquidity. A maker can institution or individual. Market order A market order is an instruction to a broker from the trader to execute a trade immediately at the current best available price.
This can be a 'buy' or 'sell'. Merger A merger is when two or more companies combine to become a single larger entity. This typically has significant financial implications and effect on the value of the participating companies stock value.
A promising merger will usually resulting in an increase in share prices. Learn more about Mergers MetaTrader MetaTrader is an popular online trading platform used for to trade a wide variety of instruments. MetaTrader 4 and Metatrader 5 versions are available with different tools and tradable assets.
Monte Carlo "Monte Carlo" refers to a method of measuring risk by developing a modelling and predicting future investment prices. This is then used to predict the worst-case loss scenario of an investment. Moving average convergence/divergence The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is a technical indicator which aims to identify changes in a share price's momentum.
The MACD helps traders identify possible opportunities around support and resistance levels by collecting data from different moving averages. Learn more about the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD). Moving average Often abbreviated to "MA", the moving average is a common indicator in technical analysis, used to examine price movements while reducing the impact of random spikes in an assets price.
Learn more about Moving Averages Multilateral trading facilities MTFs offer investment firms and traders an alternative to traditional exchanges. MTFs typically allow trade of a wider variety markets and equity products, including assets which may not have an official market. Multiplier effect Multiplier effect describes the impact that changes in monetary supply can have on economic activity.
When an government (or potentially company or individual) spends significant money it has a trickle-down effect the businesses and the economy which can have a much wider impact than the initial action.
