市场资讯及洞察
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全球石油市场的稳定,很大程度上悬于几条关键的海上通道。这其中,霍尔木兹海峡无疑是重中之重。“全球约20%的石油都得从这儿过”,这个说法流传很广。它并非夸张,而是揭示了全球能源供应链的一个结构性现实。要理解这个现象,我们需要从它的地理位置、贸易格局和经济影响说起。
1. 地理瓶颈:无法绕行的“世界油阀”霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼与伊朗之间,是连接波斯湾与阿拉伯海的唯一水道。对沙特、伊拉克、阿联酋这些波斯湾沿岸的产油大户来说,这里是他们把石油运往全球市场的几乎唯一海上出口。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据,2024年,每天约有 2,000万桶 石油及成品油穿过海峡。这个数字,相当于:
- 全球石油液体日消费量的 20%。
- 全球海运石油贸易总量的 25% 以上。
之所以如此依赖这条水道,并非偶然。独特的地理位置、产油国集中的港口布局、以及替代方案的极度稀缺,三者共同造就了它今天的地位。

近年来的运输量数据,也印证了这一点。下图显示,通过海峡的石油运输量长期维持在极高水平。

2. 贸易格局:谁在出口?谁在进口?
谁在出口,谁又在进口?海峡的贸易流向,就像一面镜子,照出了全球石油的供需格局。
主要出口国:海峡的石油主要来自波斯湾内的产油国。2023年的数据显示,供给侧高度集中:

主要进口方:相比之下,需求侧更加集中,主要在亚洲。EIA估算,2024年从霍尔木兹海峡运出的原油与凝析油中,约 84% 都流向了亚洲市场。其中,中国、印度、日本和韩国 是四个最主要的买家。这就意味着,一旦海峡发生航运中断或地缘政治风险,第一波冲击将直接传导至亚洲的炼厂和能源市场,并迅速通过布伦特原油这样的全球基准,影响世界经济。
3. 替代方案:管道与运力的“远水”与“近渴”
既然霍尔木兹海峡如此关键,难道没有备用方案来分散风险吗?答案是:有,但能力非常有限。
主要的陆上替代方案,是沙特和阿联酋运营的两条输油管道。

下表对比了海峡的日常流量与几个关键替代方案的运力。

至于油轮,船队通常都在高负荷运转,闲置的本就不多。一旦需要绕行非洲好望角这样的长航线,不仅运输时间和成本会暴增,全球的有效运力也会被大量占用,加剧市场本就紧张的神经。
4. 风险传导:从地缘政治到市场价格为什么霍尔木兹海峡的风险,总能迅速搅动全球油价?关键在于,短期内,无论是石油的生产还是消费,都缺乏弹性,很难快速调整。历史上,任何对海峡通航的威胁,都会立刻反映在价格上。下面的时间线和图表,就回顾了近年的几次典型风险事件。

2019年9月沙特石油设施遇袭后,布伦特原油价格的急剧跳升,就让市场感受到了供给中断的寒意。

市场如何消化这种风险呢?通常有几种方式:
- 即期价格跳升:交易员出于避险,会立即将最坏情景计入价格。
- 期货期限结构变化:对未来供给短缺的担忧,会推高近期合约的价格,形成“现货溢价”。
- 风险溢价:金融机构通过期权等工具,把地缘政治风险量化为每桶数美元不等的溢价,叠加在基础油价之上。
由单一通道风险引发的价格冲击,会沿着下面的链条,最终传导到整个宏观经济层面。

结语
霍尔木兹海峡的核心地位,根植于地理的唯一性、产油国港口的集中布局,以及替代方案的严重不足。全球五分之一的石油供给被锁定在这条狭窄水道上,而现有的管道和运力冗余远不足以对冲一次大规模中断。
这不只是一个运输瓶颈的问题。它意味着,任何围绕海峡的地缘政治摩擦,都有可能在短时间内转化为油价的剧烈波动,并沿着通胀和货币政策的链条向全球经济传导。对于关注能源市场和宏观风险的投资者而言,霍尔木兹海峡始终是一个不可忽视的变量。
参考文献与数据来源
- 1EIA (2025-06-16), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepointhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
- 2EIA (2024-06), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (PDF; Table 3 含 2018–2023 海峡通行量与全球海运石油贸易/消费口径) https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/world_oil_transit_chokepoints/wotc.pdf
- 3EIA (2017-08-04), Three important oil trade chokepoints are located around the Arabian Peninsulahttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32352
- 4EIA, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Daily history table) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rbrted.htm
- 5IEA (2019-10), Oil Market Report October 2019 (PDF; 2019年9月事件、库存与期货结构) https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/953b7442-bc56-467d-94ef-7cded75d0843/October_2019_OMR.pdf
- 6Morgan Stanley (2026-02-26), Thoughts on the Market — Oil Rallies on Fresh Uncertainty (transcript; 风险溢价示例与期限结构识别) https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/oil-market-rally-geopolitical-risks-martijn-rats
- 7IMF Working Paper (2022), Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shockshttps://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022173-print-pdf.pdf
- 8BIS Working Paper (2010), Oil shocks and optimal monetary policyhttps://www.bis.org/publ/work307.pdf
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- 10UNCTAD (2024), Review of Maritime Transport 2024 — Chapter 2 (全球船队与油轮占比)https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2024ch2_en.pdf
- 11Reuters (2025-12-15), Oil tanker rates to stay strong into 2026…(VLCC 利用率/闲置口径) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-tanker-rates-stay-strong-into-2026-sanctions-remove-ships-hire-2025-12-15/
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Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Kiwi "The Kiwi" is a slang name for New Zealand's Dollar. Key currency Key currencies are stable currencies that don't vary too much, which can be globally used to set exchange rates and support international trade. Examples of key currencies include the U.S. dollar, the British pound, the Euro, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar or the Swiss franc.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - L Leverage Leverage lets traders multiply their investment without the need to invest additional capital. e.g. If a broker offers 20:1 leverage, with an investment of $1,000 a trader could open a position of $20,000. It is important to note that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, it is critical this be factored in when determining risk and potential losses.
Liabilities Liabilities are a companies debts and financial obligations represented on its balance sheet. This is critical in determining the value of a company when potentially investing and liabilities offset company assets. Limit orders Limit orders execute a trade at a particular level that is more favorable than the marketing price at that time.
Limit down / limit up Limit down is the maximum amount a commodity future may decrease, while limit up is the maximum amount one may increase, in a single trading session. Liquidity (Market liquidity) Liquidity is used in finance to describe how easily an asset can be traded. When there is a high volume of active traders of an asset, there is high liquidity, and it is easier to find buyers and sellers for that asset.
Low liquidity markets can be difficult to trade, as there may not be many buyers and sellers willing to trade at an agreeable price. London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) LIBOR is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks borrowed unsecured funds from other banks in the London interbank market, however LIBOR is being gradually discontinued. USD-LIBOR has been replaced by SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and GBP-LIBOR has been replaced by SONIA (Sterling overnight index average).
Long "Going long" refers to taking a position that makes profit if an asset’s market price rises. Also referred to as "taking a long position". Lot A lot is a standardised group of assets that is traded instead of a single asset.
In the futures markets, lots are referred to as "contract sizes".

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - J

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - I Iceberg order An Iceberg order divides large orders into smaller segments. They are often used by traders for the purpose of hiding the full order quantity in order to minimise market disruption. Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud is a technical analysis indicator that shows support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction.
Roughly translated from Japanese, 'Ichimoku Kinko Hyo' means ‘one look equilibrium chart,' meaning traders can receive an array of information with just one look. In the money In the money (ITM) is defined by an option’s state of ‘moneyness’. More specifically, it refers to when an option goes beyond its strike price, giving it an intrinsic value of more than $0.
Index An index is a measure of something. In trading, an index is a grouping of financial assets that are used to give a performance indicator of a particular sector. Indices trading Indices trading refers to traders' endeavors to make money on the price movements of indices.
Inflation Inflation is the increase in the cost of goods and services in an economy, or the decline in the purchasing power of money (devaluing of currency). Learn more about Inflation. Interest Interest is the charge levied against a party for borrowing money, which can be either a cost or a means of making profit for a trader.
In trading, it can also refer to the amount of ownership a stockholder has in a company. Interest rates The amount that a lender charges to a borrower for the loan of an asset. The rate is expressed as a percentage of the loan.
Intrinsic value Intrinsic value is a measure of the perceived value of an asset. This is not always the same as the current market price because assets can be over- or undervalued. Interbank/Interdealer Market A market only open to large financial institutions, to trade between them.
This market is not restricted to a physical location and it does not have a centralised exchange. Investment capital A trader’s investment capital is the financial resources they currently have available for trading. It could be in the form of money or other assets.
It can also refer to funds invested in a firm or company for the purpose of furthering its business objectives. Investor An investor is a person who devotes capital to an investment, with the hope of seeing a return. The main goal of any investor is to minimise risk and maximise return.
IPO IPO stands for initial public offering. This is the first sale of a stock by a company, when it goes public on a stock exchange. This can also be known as floating, flotation, or just ‘going public’.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - H Handle In trading, the term ‘handle’ has two meanings, depending on which market you are referring to. In most markets, handle is the the part of a price quote that exists to the left of the decimal point in the full quote. In forex, it refers to the part of the quote that you see in both the buy and sell price.
Hawks and doves The terms used by analysts and traders to classify the members of the Central Bank committee ahead of their votes and monetary policy is known as Hawks and doves. Learn more about Hawks and Doves Hedge/Hedging A hedge is an investment or trade designed to reduce your existing exposure to risk. The process of reducing risk via investments is termed as 'hedging'.
Heikin Ashi Heikin Ashi is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis. Heikin Ashi charts are similar to candlestick charts, but the main difference is that a Heikin Ashi chart uses the daily price averages to show the median price movement of an asset. High frequency trading A form of advanced trading platform that processes a high numbers of trades very quickly using powerful computing technology is termed as High Frequency Trading (HFT).
It can be used to either find the best price for a single large order, or to find opportunities for profit in the market in real time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - F Face Value Face value represents the amount that must be paid out at a bond or stock's maturity. It may also mean the dollar value of a security, set by the issuer. Fair value Fair value is the present value of a stock, once the stock's intrinsic value is considered.
This may cause debate, as fair value is based on a subjective understanding. Federal Reserve Referred to as the ‘Fed’ for short, the Federal Reserve is the central banking system in the United States. Fiat currency Money that is given legal tender status by a government and is not linked to the value of physical commodities like gold or silver.
Fibonacci retracement A Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool that can help traders identify when to open and close a position, or when to apply stops and limits to their trades. It involves drawing trend lines on price charts between two points, usually the price highs and lows, in order to find possible areas of support and resistance. Fill Fill is the term used to refer to the completion of an order to trade a financial asset.
There is no guarantee that every trade will become filled. Financial instrument A financial instrument is a contract between two parties, which act as financial assets. These can be traded and settled.
Financial market A marketplace where the trading of securities occurs. The financial market provides an avenue for the purchase and sale of financial assets. Fixed costs Fixed costs are the expenses incurred by a company that are not impacted by the scale of production.
Fixed costs remain constant for a given period. Floating exchange rate A floating exchange rate is where the price of a currency is determined by supply and demand factors, relative to other currencies. Currencies with floating exchange rates can be traded without any restrictions, unlike fixed exchange rates.
FOMC The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which is a committee of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC is in charge of decisions around interest rates and the US money supply. Forex Forex is a global marketplace for trading international currencies.
It is sometimes referred to as foreign exchange or FX. Forward contract A contract that has a defined date of expiry, which obliges the holder to buy or sell an asset by a specific date. The contract can vary and be customised between different instances.
Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of an asset and analysing the factors that could influence its price in the future. This form of analysis is based on external events and influences, as well as financial statements and industry trends. Learn more about exit systems for a fundamental approach Futures contract A futures contract is an agreement between to buy or sell an asset at a defined price on a specified date in the future.
They are also sometimes referred to simply as ‘futures.'
