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Forex
Shares and Indices
In 2025, the S&P 500 traded around 6,835 and was up approximately 16% year to date (YTD). Market direction remained most sensitive to Federal Reserve expectations, inflation data and the earnings outlook, with returns also shaped by mega-cap tech leadership and the broader AI narrative. The index pulled back from earlier December highs, but it has so far held above key major moving averages (MA).
Key 2025 drivers included:
- Fed expectations and inflation: Inflation cooled through the year but remained sticky around 2.5% to 3%. A Fed easing bias likely supported price to earnings (P/E) multiples and “risk-on” positioning. More recently, markets appeared increasingly rate-sensitive, with the decreased likelihood of an additional rate cut until March 2026.
- Earnings and guidance: Corporate earnings remained strong quarter on quarter. Recent Q3 results reportedly saw over 80% of the S&P 500 beat earnings per share (EPS) expectations. For Q4, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate is 8.1%, despite ongoing concerns around import tariffs and potential margin pressure.
- Index leadership and breadth: Returns were heavily influenced by mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries, even as broader market breadth appeared less consistent at points through the year.
- Policy headlines and volatility: Trade and tariff headlines drove sharp moves, particularly earlier in the year. Some investors pointed to the “TACO” trade, with rapid recoveries after policy proposals were softened. Over time, similar shocks appeared to have less impact as the market became somewhat desensitised.
- Valuations and sensitivity: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22, above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.7). That gap kept valuation sensitivity, especially in AI-linked names, firmly in focus.
Current state
The S&P 500 is about 1% below record highs hit earlier in December. That could indicate the broader uptrend remains in place, with a move back toward the recent highs one possible scenario if momentum improves. Despite the recent retracement, the index remains above all key major moving averages (MA). The latest bounce followed lower than expected CPI numbers earlier this week, alongside continued, and to some, surprising optimism about what may come next.
What to watch in January
- Q4 earnings from mid-January: Results and guidance may help clarify whether valuations are being supported by forward expectations.
- AI narrative and positioning: With AI-linked mega-caps carrying a large share of market capitalisation, changes in sentiment or expectations could have an outsized impact on index performance.
- US jobs and CPI data: The latest US jobs report reportedly points to the highest headline unemployment rate since 2021. Cooling inflation this week may keep markets alert to shifts in rate cut timing, particularly around the March decision.
S&P 500 daily chart
Major FX pairs
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has been choppy in 2025. Since the “redemption day” drop in April, the move has looked more like a steady grind higher than a clean upside trend.
Key levels
Recent peaks in early September and mid-December highlight resistance near 0.6625. Support has been evident around 0.6425, where price bounced over the last month.
What is supporting the bounce
That support test coincided with stronger than expected jobs and inflation data, lifting expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may raise rates during 2026 rather than cut again. The latest pullback looks contained so far, with buying interest already visible and price still above key longer-term moving averages.
What could drive a breakout
The pair remains range-bound, but the tilt is still constructive. If Chinese data stays firm, metals prices hold up, and the central bank outlook remains relatively hawkish, a break above resistance could gain more traction.
AUD/USD daily chart
EUR/USD
After early 2025 euro strength, EUR/USD has mostly consolidated since June in a roughly 270 pip range. This month tested 1.18 resistance, reaching highs not seen since September.
What price is doing now
The recent pullback still lacks strong downside conviction. Some technical analysts refer to the 1.17 area as a near-term reference level.
What could come next
If price holds 1.17 and buyers step back in, another push toward 1.18 is possible. One view is that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be less inclined to ease in 2026, which could be consistent with a firmer EUR/USD scenario. Broader analyst commentary also suggests the euro may stall rather than collapse against the US dollar, although outcomes remain data and policy dependent.
EUR/USD daily chart
USD/JPY
Year-to-date picture
USD/JPY is close to flat overall for the year. After US dollar weakness in Q1, the pair reversed higher and now sits just below resistance near 158.
Rates remain the main driver
Rate differentials still favour the US dollar. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held steady for much of the period despite expectations it might act, and the recent rate increase was modest. Policy has only moved marginally away from zero.
What could shift the balance
Rate differentials remain a key influence. Without a clearer shift in BOJ policy, the JPY may find it difficult to sustain a rebound. Some market commentators cite 154.20 as a chart reference level.
USD/JPY daily chart
Forex
In 2025, the ASX 200 closed around 8,621 points and was up approximately 6% year to date (YTD) as of 19 December close. Market direction was most sensitive to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations, commodity prices and China-linked demand, and (to a lesser extent) moves in the Australian dollar (AUD). The index recovered from November’s pullback, but remained below October’s record close.
Key 2025 drivers included:
- RBA policy expectations: Sentiment was shaped by shifting views on the timing and extent of rate moves. The November pullback reflected repricing towards a longer pause and higher uncertainty around whether the next move could be a hike rather than a cut, particularly as jobs and inflation data surprised.
- Resources and China sensitivity: With a meaningful resources weight, the index responded to iron ore stability, strong gold prices and relative firmness in base metals. China data and any perceived policy support (including signals from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)) remained important for the export backdrop. A relatively stable AUD also reduced currency-related noise for exporters.
- Index composition and market structure: The ASX 200’s heavier tilt to materials and banks, and lower exposure to high-growth technology, meant it often lagged tech-led global rallies, but tended to hold up better when AI and growth valuations were questioned.
- Corporate earnings: Reporting season outcomes influenced valuation support. In September’s half-year reporting season, around 33% of ASX 200 companies beat expectations, which helped underpin pricing around current levels.
Current state
The ASX 200 was roughly 5% below its late-October record high close of 9,094 points. After the November retracement, support around 8,400 appeared to hold and buying interest improved. The 50-day EMA near 8,730 (a prior consolidation area) was a commonly watched near-term reference, noting technical indicators can be unreliable.
What to watch in January
- China and commodity demand: Growth, trade and any fresh stimulus inference from the PBOC may affect sentiment.
- Domestic inflation and labour data: CPI and jobs prints are key inputs into RBA expectations.
- Key levels and follow-through: The post-November rebound may need continued demand to sustain momentum.
What moved the Nikkei 225 in 2025?
In 2025, the Nikkei 225 traded around 39,200 points and was up approximately 21% year to date (YTD). Market direction was most sensitive to moves in the Japanese yen (JPY) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with the index consolidating after multi-decade highs. While broader signals remained constructive, consolidation can resolve either higher or lower.
Key influences included:
- JPY movements and earnings translation: A weaker JPY can boost the reported value of overseas earnings for some exporters, although it may also increase input and import costs. The net impact often depends on company hedging practices and varies by sector, with effects most evident in export-heavy industries such as automotive, industrials and parts of technology manufacturing.
- Gradual BOJ policy transition: The BOJ continued to step away from ultra-easy settings, but tightening was generally cautious. Markets largely priced a slow, conditional normalisation, which helped limit downside, even as policy headlines created bouts of volatility.
- Corporate governance reforms: Ongoing improvements in capital efficiency and shareholder returns supported interest from overseas investors. Share buybacks, stronger balance-sheet discipline and improved return on equity (ROE) contributed to re-rating in parts of the market.
- Global cyclical exposure: The Nikkei moved with shifts in global manufacturing sentiment and expectations for US growth, particularly during risk-on phases associated with AI-related capital spending.
Current state
After pushing to multi-decade highs earlier in the year, the Nikkei spent time consolidating but has remained structurally strong. Price sits above key long-term moving averages, and some technicians watch the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential reference level (noting these indicators can be unreliable). Currency swings and shifting BOJ expectations were commonly cited as contributors to much of the second-half volatility, although pullbacks were generally met with buying interest.
What to watch in January for Japan
- JPY volatility: Sharper yen moves, especially if driven by BOJ or Federal Reserve expectations, could quickly change exporter earnings assumptions.
- BOJ communication: Small changes in language on inflation persistence or bond market operations may move sentiment.
- Global growth data: US and China manufacturing and trade prints remain key inputs for an externally focused economy.
Forex
The biggest move in 80 years We need to start with what is probably the biggest structural change Europe has seen since the formation of the European Union to its biggest member – Germany. For the first time in 80 years Germany’s Bundestag has voted to lift the country's “debt brake” to allow the expansion of major defence and infrastructure spending under new leadership of incoming Chancellor Frederick Merz. We need to illustrate how much spending Germany is going to do in defence it is up to €1 trillion over the forward estimates. 5 billion of which is to support Ukraine for this year and to continue to put European pressure on Russia.
It's also a country it has been highly sceptical of stimulating itself having suffered through the Weimar government of the 1920s and 30s that led to hideous hyperinflation and drove the country to political extremism. It is also clearly in response to Washington’s change of tact regarding Europe and the war in Ukraine. As it is now clear that Europe who need to defend itself and that NATO is becoming a dead weight that can no longer be relied upon.
Couple this with what the EU is doing itself. Last week we saw the head of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, delivered a speech that stated the continent needed to: “rearm and develop the capabilities to have credible deterrence.” This came off the back of the EU endorsing a commission plan aimed at mobilising up to €800 billion in investments specifically around infrastructure and in turn defence. The plan also proposes to ease the blocs fiscal rules to allow states to spend much more on defence.
If you want to see direct market reactions to this change in the continent’s commitments – look no further than the performance of the CAC40 and DAX30. Both are outperforming in 2025 and considering how far back they are coming compared to their US counterparts over the past 5 years – the switch trade may only be just beginning. What is also interesting it’s the limited reactions in debt markets.
The 10-year Bund finished marginally higher, though overall European bond markets saw limited movement. Bonds rallied slightly following confirmation of the German stimulus package. Inflation swap rates were little changed, while EUR swaps dipped, particularly in the belly of the curve.
EUR/USD ticked up 0.2% to $1.0960. Hopes for a potential Russia-Ukraine cease-fire also offered some support to the euro but has eased to start the weeks as Russia looks to break the deal before it even begins. Staying with currency impactors – The US saw a range of second-tier U.S. economic data releases last week all came in stronger than expected.
Housing starts jumped, likely benefiting from improved February weather. Industrial production rose 0.7% month-over-month big beat considering consensus was for a 0.2% gain while manufacturing jumped 0.9%. Import and export prices also exceeded forecasts, prompting a slight upward revision to core PCE inflation estimates, mainly due to higher-than-expected foreign airfares.
These upside surprises led to a brief sell-off in treasury bills but yields soon drifted lower as equities struggled. Looking ahead to the FOMC decision, expectations remain for the Fed to hold steady. Chair Powell has emphasised that the U.S. economy is in a "good place" despite ongoing uncertainties and has signalled there’s no rush to cut rates.
The Fed’s updated projections are expected to show a slight downward revision to growth, a more cautious view on GDP risks, and slightly higher inflation forecasts. As for rate cuts, the median expectation remains two 25bps cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026, with markets currently pricing around 56bps of easing next year. All this saw the U.S. dollar trade mixed against G10 currencies as local factors took centre stage.
Despite a weaker risk tone in equities, the DXY USD Index edged down 0.1%. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars softened (AUD/USD -0.3%, NZD/USD -0.4%) as risk sentiment deteriorated. The AUD will be interesting this week as we look to the budget that was never meant to happen on Tuesday.
Considering that we are within 10 weeks of a certain election, the budget really is not worth the paper its written on as it will likely change with an ‘election’ likely to be enacted straight after the new government is sworn in. That said, the budget is likely to show once again that Canberra is messing at the edges and not taking the steps needed to address structural issues. The AUD is likely to fluctuate on the release and then find a direction (more likely to the downside) over the week as the budget shows the soft set of numbers with little or no change in the interim.
Finally, the rally of the yen appears to be over as it continues to weaken. USD/JPY climbed from Y149.20 in early Tokyo trade to around Y149.90 as the London session got underway. With CFTC data showing significant long yen positioning, some traders likely unwound short USD/JPY bets ahead of the BoJ decision.
Other JPY pairs moved in tandem with USD/JPY. But whatever is at play out of Japan – the rally of the past 6-7 months looks to be ending and with USD/JPY facing the magic Y150 mark – will the BoJ step in like it did last year? Will the market look straight past it again?
Or will we see a completely different trend?
Recent Articles
Market insights
US Earnings
As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve.
Quick facts:
- US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
- JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
- Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
- President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
- Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.
United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings
What to watch:
The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.
Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.
Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.
Key releases and events:
- Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
- Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
- Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
- Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
- Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
- Throughout the week: Fed member speeches
How markets may respond:
S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.
USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.
With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.
Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.
UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength
What to watch:
In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.
In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.
Key releases and events:
Eurozone
- Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)
UK
- Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
- Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.
DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.
FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.
US and Europe calendar summary (AEDT)
- Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
- Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
- Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
- Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue
Bottom line
- If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
- If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
- If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
- For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
Market insights
Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.
Quick facts:
- China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
- USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
- Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.
This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone.
For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative.
For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum.
For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.
China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data
What to watch:
With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.
Key release:
- Wed 14 Jan: Trade balance, exports and imports (December) (high sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.
Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).
Japan: FX sensitivity remains the key factor
What to watch:
With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.
Key releases:
- Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
- Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.
Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.
Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week
What to watch:
In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.
Key releases:
- Tue 13 Jan: Westpac consumer sentiment (low sensitivity)
- Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.
Other Asia-Pacific events
South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.
Asia-Pacific calendar:
- Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
- Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
- Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports
- Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations
Bottom line
- If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
- If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
- If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
- Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.
US Earnings
So why do Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) earnings matter for Australians? Because the US earnings season is a different sport from Australia, and this is where the scoreboard sits. These seven names do not just report results, they set the tone for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly. They often influence index tone, but market moves are not guaranteed and can fade or reverse.
The Aussie edge: time zones, event windows, and what gets priced
For Aussie traders, the challenge is not just timing. It's overnight gaps, liquidity, and AUD/USD currency moves that can amplify or offset the share price reaction.
Most Mag 7 results land after the US close, so the initial move often hits Sydney morning liquidity. Markets may react first to the headline numbers, then again during the call as guidance, margins and capex are digested — but the sequence varies by quarter.
What this guide gives you, company by company
For each company, we map the US Eastern Time (ET) reporting window and the Sydney time window (AEDT), flag whether it is before or after the US close, and narrow the focus to the few drivers that tend to move price.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Apple is a “quality” print until it isn’t. The market doesn’t just ask if Apple beat. It asks whether demand and mix support the next leg.
Reporting window (confirmed)
- US reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 5:00 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Fri, 30 Jan 2026 at 9:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q1)
- Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$2.65
- Projected consensus revenue: US$135.86 billion (bn)
- Call focus: iPhone demand and mix, services trajectory, China and FX translation
Translation: Apple “beats” are common. The repricing comes from demand tone and margin language.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above expectations, but it only really counts if demand still sounds healthy and the gross margin commentary stays straightforward.
A “meet” means results are basically in line, so attention shifts to the call. Investors will focus on iPhone product mix, how fast Services is growing, and whether any specific regions are weakening.
A “miss” often reacts more negatively if it is driven by weaker demand, because the market may treat it as the start of a trend, not a one time issue. You can also see a big price gap right after the report, before the call even starts.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
Meta is expected to report the December quarter, which effectively turns this into a Sydney morning catalyst for Aussie traders. The headline move hits first but the second leg often comes from the call, when guidance and capex ranges get priced.
Reporting window (expected)
- US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
- Projected consensus EPS: US$8.29
- Projected consensus revenue: US$58.27 bn
- Call focus: AI infrastructure capex, Ads demand plus Reels monetisation and Reality Labs losses versus discipline
Translation: Meta can beat the print and still sell off if the Street hears “higher spend, longer payoff.”
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really counts if guidance stays intact and the 2026 capex and expense ranges do not get wider.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call: how broad ad demand looks, whether Reels monetisation is improving, and whether spending sounds capped or more open ended.
A “miss” can turn ugly quickly if it comes with weaker ad demand commentary or higher spend bands. With expectations already high, the initial gap can be sharp, and what happens next depends on whether guidance can steady the story.
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
Alphabet is still an ads engine first, and a Cloud and AI story second. The market wants proof that Cloud profitability and AI spend can coexist without compressing the whole narrative.
Reporting window (confirmed)
- US reporting time: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Thu, 5 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
- Projected consensus EPS: US$2.59
- Projected consensus revenue: TBC
- Call focus: Search and YouTube ads pricing and volume, Cloud growth and profitability, AI capex and monetisation signals
Translation: The market forgives a lot if ads are strong and Cloud margins keep improving.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if ad demand sounds broad and Cloud profitability does not slip while AI spending ramps.
A “meet” puts the call in the driver’s seat, with investors listening for ad pricing trends, YouTube momentum, and whether capex is moving higher.
A “miss” hurts most if it is driven by weaker ads, because then the market starts debating the ad cycle, not just the company.
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
Amazon is two businesses stapled together in the tape. The market uses AWS to price growth and uses retail margins to price discipline.
Reporting window (expected)
- US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
- Prijected consensus EPS: US$1.97
- Projected consensus revenue: US$211.33 bn
- Call focus: AWS growth and margins, retail profitability/fulfilment efficiency, advertising momentum, capex tone
Translation: AWS decides the direction. Retail decides the confidence.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if AWS holds steady or speeds up again and management does not worry the Street with spending plans.
A “meet” puts AWS and margin tone front and centre, and the call does most of the work.
A “miss” usually gets hit hardest when AWS growth slows or operating income guidance disappoints, because that is what can reset the whole valuation debate.
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Reporting window (confirmed)
- US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q2)
- Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$3.86
- Projected consensus revenue: US$80.09 bn
- Call focus: Azure growth, AI monetisation (Copilot/attach), capex intensity, and margin trajectory
Translation: This is usually a cloud plus capex trade, not an EPS trade.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if Azure is holding up and capex does not sound unlimited. Beat plus steady cloud trends and stable margins is the upside script the tape usually rewards.
A “meet” puts the focus on the call, especially Azure growth, commercial bookings tone, and how quickly capex is stepping up.
A “miss” usually gets punished most when cloud growth slows or margins get shaky, because that is the key forward anchor the market leans on.
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Nvidia is the season’s last boss. Markets treat it like a read-through on AI capex itself. The print matters, but guidance and gross margin are the real price setters.
Reporting window (confirmed)
- US reporting time: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 at 4:20 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 8:20 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
- Projected consensus EPS: US$1.45
- Projected consensus revenue: US$65.47 bn
- Call focus: Data centre demand versus capacity, gross margin trajectory, supply/lead times, next-quarter guide
Translation: Guidance and gross margin commentary often drive the reaction, but outcomes vary.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the next quarter outlook confirms demand is still strong and the gross margin message stays solid.
A “meet” means the call becomes the decider, and the stock trades the outlook, margins, and what management says about supply conditions.
A “miss” can gap down fast, especially if it comes with softer forward guidance, because the market may take it as a clue about the broader AI spending cycle.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla’s earnings are rarely just about the quarter. The print hits first, but the real repricing usually happens when the call clarifies margins, demand, and the autonomy timeline. For Aussie traders, it’s a Sydney morning catalyst.
Reporting window (confirmed)
- US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
- AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
- Projected consensus EPS: US$0.44
- Projected consensus revenue: US$25.15 bn
- Call focus: Autonomy/robotaxi cadence, auto gross margin, pricing/demand and energy storage scale
Translation: Tesla can “beat” and still get sold if margins compress or the roadmap tone shifts.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the margin story stays intact and management does not add fresh uncertainty around pricing or timing.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call, especially on demand, how durable margins look, and progress toward autonomy milestones.
A “miss” gets hit fastest when it comes with weaker margin language or softer demand comments, because the market will assume next quarter looks tougher, not easier.