助你決策的交易策略
探索實用技巧，助你規劃、分析並改進交易。
你花了任何时间查看交易终端，那你已经看过了。新闻头条爆发，图示折线突然间所有人都在冲向同一个出口或同一个入口。像混合的那样看。实际上，它通常是一连串的机械响应。
这很重要，有两个原因。许多读者认同为事故就是交易。不是。无论是利率决定、供应冲击还是盈利失败，故事都是燃料，剧本是引擎。
以下是差价合约（CFD）交易中常用的七种核心策略策略。使用差价合约，您的资产不在买入标记。你在推测值的变化。这意味着，如果价格上涨，交易者可以持有多头头寸，如果价格下跌，则可以持有空头头寸。
首先要了解的七种策略
1。趋势与追踪（建制剧本）
TrendsToxmaskIgue的观看点子，即时已在运转中出现的市场可以保持活跃，直到它遇到了明显的结构性激障碍。一些市场参与者将视作一种视图表格的方法法，因为它重定向于当前方向，而不是试图确切的转折点。
理由： 目的地是找到确切的方向偏差，例如更高的高点和更高的高点和更高的低速点，并遵循该向头而非是与之对立的方向。
交易者在寻找什么： 指示数移动平均线（EMA），例如 50 天或 200 天均线，通常用于解释趋势强度，尽管指示可能产生生错误的信号，并且本人不可靠。
它是如何工作的： 50周期均线可以充值当动态支撑位，年价格上涨而上升。在上升趋势中，一些交易者观察市场创新的更高点（哈），然后回落至均线，然后再下跌至均线，然后再走高。每走高中的低点数（HL）都可能表明买家的处在控制之中。
在回调期间，当价格接触及或接近 50 周期均线时，一些交易者将该区域视野视作潜入的策划区域，而不是假设趋势会自动恢复。
要看什么： HH 和 HL 的顺序是趋势结构性证书的一部分。如果该顺序列中断，例如价格下跌破坏先前的，则趋势可以减弱，设置可能无法再成立。
2。区间交易（小球比赛）
市场可能性会很长一段时间内横盘整理。这就形成了一个区域间，买家和卖家处置暂时的平衡状况。区域间交易是围绕这种行为为建立，侧重于既定区域的间底部和顶部接近的走势。
理由： 价格在下限（称为支出）和上限（称为阻力）之间自动移动。某些边界面接近移动可以帮助定义范围的宽度。
交易者在寻找什么： 一些交易者使用相对强度指数（RSI）等振兴度指数（RSI）来帮助判断在每个边界中的资产是超级买入也是超级买入也是超级的。
它是如何工作的： 支撑位是一个价格区域，从历史上看，买入兴奋的足球强势，足以阻挡市场进一步下跌。阻力位是历史上涨幅度上涨的地区。
当价格接近支出时，一些交易者会在反弹的时候寻找潜水。当它接近阻力位时，他们会寻找头部可能正好在减弱的意象。RSIREADNUMERCLOW 低于 35 可表示市场在支援位的附加值接近超速，而高于 65 的读取数可表示市场在阻力位附近。
要看什么： 区域间交易的主要风险是突破性的，即时价格以强的头部结果为突破性。这可能的预示着新趋势的开端，在每笔交易中使用范畴之外的止损可以帮助管理这种风险风险。
3.Breakouts（卷曲的春季剧本）
最终，每一个区域都承受着受力的压力。当平衡发生变化并且，价格突破支或阻力时，就会发生突破性突破。marketlowineLowineTimestion（价格在区间内横盘整理）和高波动性爆发时期（价格可以做更大的方向性波动）之后的交叉出局。
理由： 在静平的整合之后，有时会出现更广的波动性扩散。压缩越南，为下一步行动储存的能量就越多。
交易者在寻找什么： 布林带通常用于解释波动率的变化。当带着子收紧时，就会形成压强。一些市场参与者认为，走出区域间的表象可能正在发生变化。
它是如何工作的： 布林带有一条中线、20 个周末的移动平均线和 2 个根根据接近预期价格波动和扩张张的扩张或收集 collecit 的外围部位波动组合。当波段收集，并接近时，即压强，市场异常平等。静
这通常会被描述为螺旋弹簧。能量可能正在积累，随后的能量会采取更严厉的举动。一些交易者将首先穿过外波段视图为方向的早期线索，而不是其本身的明示信号。
要看什么： 并且，每一次的压力都会导致 “致死” 的突然突破。当价格短暂地暂时移动到区域间外，然后迅即转回区域间内时，就会发生假设突破口。等候在区域间外来收集，而非进化中间，可以降低低速入侵假走的陷阱。
4。新闻交易（偏差游戏）
这是事故驱动的交易。重点是市场预期与数据或标题实际交叉付款之间的差距。经济数据的发布，例如通货膨胀数据（CPI）、就业报告和中央银行的调查，可能导致金融市场急剧快速波动。
理由： 高影响力的发布会，例如通货膨胀数据或中央银行的行为，可能会迫使资产快速重新定价。相对于预期，惊喜越大，走出可能。
交易者在寻找什么： 交易者经常使用经济日来追踪我时机。有些人关注市场在初步反应后面的表格，而不会是将首先视为最终定向性的。
它是如何工作的： 在新闻发布之前，年交易者的等待，价格可能在平静的区间内波动。当数据发布时，如果实际读取数和共识的预期存档在显著差异中，则重新定向价可能会很快。
例如，由于消费者价格指数高于预期，黄金可能会大幅上升。但是，也可以在部件灯芯上打印出很长的时间，这意味着价格达到了升级的高位，但随之而来的是强烈的拒绝。卖家可能迅雷下载主角，价格可能。这是 “新闻交易” 中最易受的难度的 “新闻交易”。
要看什么： 初始值的方向和大小并没有，可以说全部情况。灯芯长度可以提供重要的线索。长灯芯片可以表明最初的动作被拒绝，而数据发布后的灯芯片比较短期可能 sistemoSemoPanseSemo向性移动更新的动作继续。
5。均值回归（橡皮侠游戏）
价格有时间会变动得太快、太快了。平均值回归建立 clicals 的理念之上，即过度波动能向历史平均平均水平偏偏偏移动，就像 rabectPiraberpize 拉得太多，然后反弹一样。
理由： 这是一种逆转方针。它正在寻找可以无法持续的乐观情绪或悲观情绪的乐观情绪，以恢复复原平衡的立场。
交易者在寻找什么： 一个常见的例子是价格远离20天移动平均线（MA），而RSI也达到了极限水水平。在这种人中，交易者设置的关注是向均值回落，而不是继续偏离平均值。
它是如何工作的： 20周期末均线代表市场最近的平均价格。当价格进入极端区域时，例如高于或低到该平均值的 3 个标准差以上，则与最近的趋势相对。
RSIHANGU70 可以向上拉伸表露市场，而低于 30 则表示明下行趋势与众不同。一些平均值回归交易者使用这些组合信号作为可能的向20周期望均线回调的信号，而不是假设这一走势将继续延续。
要看什么： 在趋势强者的市场中，平均值归因于策略可能，会带来自重大的风险风险。市场的延期连续时间可能超出预期，而与短期趋势相反的头部可能性会致死大下跌。头寸规模和明确的止损是至关重要的。
6。心理水平（大人物游戏）
市场由人为自动，人是向关注的整数。100 美元、2,000 美元或货币对的平价 1.000 美元可以升至磁铁的作用。在金融市场中，某些价格水平价可能会吸收不成比例的买入和卖出活动，这不仅仅是因为技术分析，而且是由于人类的心理。
理由： 大额订阅清单、止损和止盈水平价可能聚集在周末的大数字周围，这可能会增强化支出的力量或阻力。这种自我强化的行为是这些拒绝的绝对交易者有意义的原因。
交易者在寻找什么： 交易者经常观察价格在接近整数的表单中。市场可能会犹豫不决，拒绝绝对该水平或以头突破该水水平。同级别的多次灯芯片拒绝收集可能比单个灯芯片的重量更大。
它是如何工作的： 当价格从下方差不多整数时，一些交易者会注意上方的长灯芯，即体上方的细微垂直线。上限比较长时间的着装价格已达到该水位，但卖家的积极极端是主要的，并且在收盘前将推销其下方。
一根灯芯片的绝对拒绝值得关注。一个集合群中国有三个可能更重要。一些交易者将这种累积的拒绝作为该水平价的绝对拒绝进行卖空（卖出）的理念的一部分。
要看什么： 心理水平也可以充当相反方向的磁铁。如果价格坚定地突然突破，那么该水平价可能就会恢复到支出的作用。决定性格的收集盘价高于该水平，而不仅仅是断线，可能被拒绝，绝对不能再设置有效的早期望值。
7。行业轮换（经济季节走势）
这是一种观点策略。年龄经济背景的变化，资本可能会从比较高增高的行业转向更具防御性的行业，然后再返回。并且，非股票市的所有部分都同时朝和同一个方向发展。
理由： 在经济放缓中，全权支出的可能减弱，而对基本服务的需求可以保持更稳定。投资者可以相反地在行业之内进行轮换资格。
交易者在寻找什么： 在差价合约中，一些交易者通过相对强来表达这种观点，在减小或抵消比较板块的口中，增大或抵消对板块的口的同时，增大或抵消对比较板块的口的同时，增大或抵消对比较板块的方块。
它是如何工作的： 在增长阶段，当经济扩张时，投资者向偏爱科技等以增长为向导的行业。年龄经济环境的变化，可能是由于利率上升、收益放缓或退出风险增加所致，可能出现一个轮换点。
在缓存放置阶段，这种方式可以逆转。年龄投资者将资本转向防御性创收领域，科技可能走弱，而公用事业可能走强。早期信号可能，包括增长板块表演的相机对不佳，以防御力异常强弱。
要看什么： 行业轮换通常不是一朝一的事件。它通常持续数周到数月。跟踪两个板块之后的比率（通常显示在相对强度图表中）可能会使这种转变在绝对价格变动中显而易见。
为什么风险管理是生存的引擎
头条新闻是一回事。对您的账户户的市场影响是另一种回应。如果你不管理机关，策划就无关紧要。
由于差价合约是以保证金交易的，因为这个小激烈的市场波动可能对账户户口产出巨人大影视。如果杠杆率过高，即使是轻微的波动也可以接触到追加保证金或自动平衡，具体取消决定提供商的条款。这不是理论。这是新交易者在方向 “正确认” 的交易中损坏超出预期的常见原因。
市场并不会总是直线移动。有时，从一个等级 E 到另一个等级 E 的价格差距，尤其是在周末或重大的新闻事件之后，在这种情况下，损坏可能无法以确切的价格填充。这就是所谓的滑点。这是大额头能给重大公告带来额外风险的原因之一。
底线
这辆车很强大，但剧本可以帮你继续行驶。
显然，我见过的交易通常已经定价了。更重要的是了解你面前的市场状况。潮汐流、范围调整、爆发还只是对标题做出反应吗？
评分估计杠杆产品的读者通常会重点放置在头寸规模、风险限额和产品披露上，然后再决定该产品是否适合他们。头条新闻将继续变化。风险管理的数学不是。
准备好在主要交易之外进行交易了吗？
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免责声明：本文仅为一般信息，仅用于教育目的。它解释了常见的交易概述和市场行为，并未构造成金融产品建议、推荐或交易信号。任何例子仅供参考，不考虑您的目标、财务状况不佳或需求需求。差价合约是复杂的杠杆产品，风险很高。在采取行事动作之前，请考虑PDS和TMD以及差价合约交易是否适合您。必然要时搜寻独立建议。过去的表现不一定是未来业者的可靠指标。
波动性有一种不请自来的方式。
有一天，澳大利亚证券交易所正在悄然波动... 第二天，保证金要求上升，止损未达到预期，投资组合开盘时出现令人不安的隔夜缺口。
如果您一直在寻找答案，那么您并不孤单。澳大利亚交易者中一些最常搜索的有关波动性的问题与追加保证金、滑点、隔夜缺口、杠杆交易所交易基金（ETF）以及平均真实区间（ATR）等工具有关。
以下是正在发生的事情。
为什么现在这很重要
全球市场对利率、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治和技术驱动的流动变得更加敏感。当流动性减少和不确定性增加时，价格波动就会扩大。那就是波动性。
波动性不仅会影响价格方向，还会改变交易的执行方式、需要多少资本以及表面之下的风险表现。
翻译：波动性不仅仅是更大的波动，而是更快的走势和更少的流动性——那是交易机制最重要的时候。
想要真实世界的波动率案例研究吗？
为什么我的经纪人提高了保证金要求？
关于波动率的搜索最多的问题之一是为什么保证金要求在没有警告的情况下增加。
当市场变得不稳定时，经纪商可能会提高差价合约（CFD）和其他杠杆产品的保证金要求。较大的价格波动会增加账户转为负资产的风险，因此提高保证金要求会降低可用杠杆率，并有助于在极端条件下管理风险敞口。
这在实践中可能意味着什么
-即使价格没有显著变动，也可能会出现追加保证金的情况。
-有效杠杆率可能会迅速下降。
-可能需要在短时间内减少职位。
保证金调整通常是对不断变化的市场风险的回应，而不是随机决定。在高度波动的市场中，谨慎的做法是假设保证金设置可以迅速变化，因此，许多交易者选择根据这种风险来审查头寸规模和可用缓冲区。
什么是滑点？为什么我的止损没有按我的价格成交？
另一个经常搜索的话题是滑点。
当止损单触发并以下一个可用价格执行时，可能会发生滑点，结果可能取决于订单类型、市场流动性和缺口。在平静的市场中，差异可能很小，而在快速市场中，价格可能会跳出止损水平。
常见的驱动程序包括
-主要经济或财报发布。
-流动性薄弱。
-拥挤的停车位。
-通宵会议。
止损订单通常优先执行而不是价格确定性，在高波动时期，这种区别变得很重要。根据典型的价格走势调整头寸规模和设置止损可能比在不稳定条件下简单地收紧止损更有效。
如何管理澳大利亚证券交易所的隔夜差距？
澳大利亚在美国沉睡的时候进行贸易，反之亦然。遗憾的是，这种时区差异是澳大利亚交易者经常寻找隔夜缺口风险的原因之一。如果美国市场大幅下跌，澳大利亚证券交易所可能会在第二天早上开盘走低，在收盘和开盘之间没有机会退出。
市场交易者可能使用的风险管理方法的示例包括
-使用澳大利亚证券交易所200指数期货或差价合约*进行指数套期保值。
-在高风险事件期间进行部分对冲。
-在重大宏观公告发布之前减少风险敞口。
套期保值可以抵消部分走势，但会带来基础风险，因为个别股票的走势可能与整体指数不一致。
没有完美的保护，只有在成本、复杂性和风险降低之间进行权衡。
*差价合约是复杂的工具，由于杠杆作用，存在很高的亏损风险。
在波动的市场中，杠杆或反向ETF的主要风险是什么？
在波动性加剧的时期，通常会搜索杠杆和反向ETF。
虽然这些产品通常每天重置，但它们的目标是提供该指数每日回报的倍数，而不是其长期回报。在波动的横盘行情中，即使指数收盘价接近起始水平，每日复利也可能侵蚀价值。
之所以发生这种情况，是因为收益和损失不对称地复合。下降10％需要超过10％的收益才能恢复。当这种影响每天成倍增长时，随着时间的推移，结果可能会与基础指数出现重大差异。
一些市场参与者可能会在战术上使用此类工具。它们通常不是作为长期对冲工具设计的，在将它们用于策略之前，了解它们的结构至关重要。
如何使用 ATR 为止损位置提供信息？
平均真实波动范围（ATR）是衡量波动率的常用指标。
ATR 估算资产在给定时期内通常会有多少波动，包括缺口。一些交易者没有将止损设置为任意百分比，而是参考ATR并将止损设置为倍数，例如ATR的两到三倍，以反映当前情况。
当波动率上升时，ATR 会扩大，如果要保持总体风险不变，这可能意味着更大的止损或更小的头寸规模。这种转变不是问：“我愿意输多远？”改为问：“在当前条件下，正常的举动是什么？”
波动市场中的实际注意事项
在波动性加剧的时期，交易者可以考虑
- 考虑到保证金变动的可能性
- 如果波动率增加，则保守地调整头寸
- 认识到止损单并不能保证特定的退出价格
- 在重大经济事件发生之前审查风险敞口
- 了解杠杆ETF的每日重置机制
- 使用诸如ATR之类的波动率指标来为止损设置提供信息
- 保持足够的现金缓冲区
波动率并不能仅奖励预测。准备和风险意识可以帮助交易者了解潜在的风险，但结果仍然不可预测。
阅读：全球波动性以及如何交易差价合约
这对澳大利亚交易者意味着什么
与亚洲和美国市场相比，澳大利亚市场面临着特定的结构性考虑。隔夜缺口风险受美国交易时间的影响，澳大利亚证券交易所等资源密集型指数可以快速应对大宗商品价格走势和来自中国的数据。货币敞口，包括澳元和美元（USD）的走势，可能会增加另一层波动性。
各地区的波动性并不均匀。根据市场结构和流动性深度，它的行为会有所不同。
有关波动率的常见问题
是什么原因导致市场波动突然飙升？
利率决定、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治发展、盈利意外和流动性限制是常见的触发因素。
为什么经纪人在动荡的市场中增加利润？
减少杠杆风险敞口并在价格波动扩大时管理风险。
在波动期间，止损订单会失败吗？
如果市场跳空超过止损水平，他们可能会出现下滑，这意味着执行的价格可能低于预期。在快速或流动性不足的市场中，这种差异可能很大。
杠杆ETF适合长期对冲吗？
由于每日重置，它们通常是针对短期风险敞口而设计的。它们是否合适取决于您的目标、财务状况和风险承受能力。
在进行交易之前如何衡量波动率？
ATR、隐含波动率指标和历史区间分析等工具可以帮助量化当前状况。
风险警告：波动加剧的时期可能导致价格快速变动、利润率变化以及以不同于预期的价格执行。止损订单和波动率指标等风险管理工具可能有助于评估市场状况，但不能消除损失风险，尤其是在使用杠杆产品时。
We are less than three weeks away from the ASX earning season and we are less than two weeks away from the earnings season in the US. So, we need to start prepping for trades and opportunities now. First and foremost, do not forget that confession season is well and truly upon us here in Australia.
Downgrades clearly have been coming from the discretionary sector; we've even seen companies hit the wall with the likes of Booktopia going into administration. There are some clear thematics that are growing in the Australian market. Energy, while the worst performing sector for the financial year 2024, may actually show you that earnings were slightly above expectation on higher than expected oil prices.
Materials led in the main by BHP, Rio and FMG Have once again benefited from higher than expected iron ore prices. It also benefited from a lower than expected AUD/USD where average FX prices were expected to be between $0.68 and $0.73 but instead have averaged between $0.63 and $0.67. What we're looking for is operational costs, overall margins and forward looking guidance, something that these firms have lacked in the last three financial updates.
Watch very closely for the excitement that will come from things like copper at the expense of the issues that are facing nickel lithium and other transition metals that have had really tough periods in FY24. Moving to the banks this is a sector people argue is fully valued. It's not hard to argue when through the financial year CBA made record all time highs several times and is still within a whisker of its record all time high.
Higher interest rates will indeed improve net interest margins. However, the unknown question and what we need to see at its August full year earnings is the impact higher rates are having on bad and doubtful debts, the possible increase in provisioning and more importantly the impact its having on new loans and refinancing. There is an argument to be made that banking is possibly fully priced and no matter what result is delivered won't necessarily create a leg further higher.
Finally, you can't go past consumer staples and discretionary. Retail sales numbers over the last 18 months have actually shown discretionary spending At or above 2022 levels although month on month figures have been erratic. The question that will come for discretionary spending is margins and how much sales revenue translates to the bottom line in earnings and profit.
Staples on the other hand have seen consistent movement on the revenue line but the question will be the margin and after the very targeted senate inquiry into supermarkets any sign profits are above trend may actually be met with concern as geopolitics raises its head. 33 times in 2024 the US 500 and the Tech 100 have made record highs – can it continue? Look into the US and the ending season that it is about to undertake. We have to look at several core thematics that are likely to be raised.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) The question you’ve got to ask is: is the time frame long or short? We raised this Mag 7 stocks etc Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, apple have clear potential. They are evolving their business models and see the integration of AI as the future of their individual businesses.
That will likely come up in their numbers but it will come with operational and initial upfront costs as the integration of AI begins. This is all long term may not fully capture short term opportunities which is still presenting very much in the semiconductor providers. NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices are taking full advantage and monetizing the compute cycle.
This clearly won't be forever because it will go from semiconductors to infrastructure to software and therefore the flows will move back towards the bigger end of town but overall the AI thematic still flows towards the semiconductors for now and that's likely to be shown in the earnings season that's coming. Data Centres That brings us to data centres because the potential for ensuring AI requires a heck of a lot of storage and a heck of a lot of processing. There are estimates the data centres will need to grow by 420% in Europe and 250% in the US by 2035 based on the rate of growth in AI right now.
Therefore, we need to watch providers like Dell Technologies and Intel which are big providers of data centres currently. We think the market hasn’t fully appreciated DC needs in the AI revolution. Cybersecurity The final key theme in the AI data centre technology space that we also think needs to be watched is cyber security.
It's been something along the lines of a 70% increase in ransomware attacks over the past 24 months. The regulatory requirements and the budgets required to deal with these increased threats is only just beginning. That brings players like Fortinet to the fore IT programmes and it's pensively to develop programs for enterprise makes it an interesting one going forward.
GLP-1 ‘Weight Loss’ Medicines Another theme of being a really strong driver of the S&P 500 is the rise of GLP-1 medicines. The weight loss craze that has come off the back of this Amazon has been incredible. Initially obviously developed for diabetes but having an additional effect of weight loss has created a product out of nowhere.
Eli Lilly and Co is a key player in this space with its GLP one class medicines already approved by the FDA. It's been launched in the US and its oral intake has posted adoption. It is not the only one in this space but shows very clearly the impact weight loss medicines are having on earnings.
The caveat we have though is side effects and long term impacts are still being found and could be said as a capping issue on price. Whatever way you look at it the US dating season however will be incredibly exciting and it is the reason The US markets continue to see huge capital inflows as they are much more exciting in this current environment than traditional value markets such as Australia.
The following EAs are examples of Expert Advisors rated on Trustpilot. They have been rated by traders in general, however, please understand that past performances are not indication of future success. Below is a list of EAs, which you can purchase online, however there are several free ones you can find on the market, these are labelled (f), please do your own research when choosing the right EA for your own trading style, objectives, and risk settings. 1000pip Climber – This EA has the highest rated metric on Trustpilot.
Apart from the added support that is on offer by the developers, this EA is specifically impressive given its high yield in both trending and range bound markets. Flex – Has been voted best EA on the market for an incredible 8 consecutive years! Flex requires a deposit of $3000 and works well in trending markets.
FXCharger – With a great yield of 77.3% and a high rating on Trustpilot, this EA opens trades every day and closes them at the right time, such that the trader earns a profit. FXCharger requires a deposit of $1000. Fortnite – Another customisable EA that allows the user to change the settings according to the trading style they want.
Is yield ranks around the 135%, it requires a deposit of $500. Alfa Scalper – Using a scalping method to get trading opportunities this EA yields sits at 49.36% and has a rating of 8.57. Its one of the easiest EAs to use and requires a deposit of $100.
Forex Gump – It’s probably one of the most rated EAs by traders on the market, it has a rating of 8.52 and a yield of 2200%. It utilizes daily trading and scalping to make trading decisions. This one requires a small deposit of $40.
Trade Manager – With a 65.39% yield, you can create your own strategies and set your own parameters for the best results. A deposit of $100 is required. Forex Diamond – Has a yield of 63.39%.
This EA uses trend and countertrend strategies to make trading decisions, is fast, safe, and precise. Requires a deposit of $1000. Below is a list of free experts’ advisors which you can look up with the power of the internet: Trader New (f).
Daydream01 (f). Calypso (f). Day Profit SE (f).
Breakout11 (f). Euro FX2 (f) Channels (f). As a trader it is important to know what type of trading you would like to do, this means what types of strategy, which markets and if you would benefit from the use of an EA or if you would prefer to trade manually.
If you are thinking that having access to an EA might benefit your trading activity, then there are many available on the MQL5 commuminty. If you are interested in automating your own strategy, then there are companies like TradeView that help traders to automate and create their own Expert Advisor without coding experience. GO Markets also provides access to their TradeView X platform via the client portal with a monthly subscription at a reduced cost other than directly with them.
By having an account with GO Markets you will also have access to our Metatrader 4 and 5 trading platform and a VPS (needed for EA traders). Please visit us here to get started or call us directly and speak to one of our account managers on 03 8566 7680. Sources: tradersunion.com.
Is it time to Capitalise on Short Squeezes ? Short Squeezes are one of the interesting price action patterns that can occur in the market. They can provide It can provide explosive momentum trading opportunities that can go on for days.
They can provide trading opportunities for scalpers, intraday, and swing traders. What actually is a short squeeze and why do they occur? To understand a short squeeze it is important to go back to the basics of trading and understand what an actual short is and why market participants go short on a product.
What is a short? A short is a position that a market participant takes when they expect the price of a market product to go down. This can include but is not excluded too, Securities, Commodities and Forex.
A trader may take a short position because they believe a company is overvalued, a currency will go down in value due to economic factors, to hedge or for a number of other reasons. Short positions can be taken in a range of ways, however, the most common method for shorting a CFD is quite simple. It involves borrowing units to sell with the short holder having to buy-back the units at a lower price and pocketing the difference.
Example A trader believes that company ABC is overvalued at $1.00 and decides to borrow 100 CFD units of ABC to short at $1.00 per CFD with a total value of $100. The price then falls to $0.50. The trader closes their position and buys back the CFDs at $50.
They are then able to pocket the difference of $50.00. The mechanics of a short squeeze. Due to the nature of a short position which requires a buying back of the stock to both close the position and lock in profit a trader will inevitably have to buy-back or close their position at some point.
This subsequently drives up the price. Most of the time in a trending market this process works without any issues. However, if the price stops falling and consolidates or to a stage where the market starts to see value in the price again, large short holders may decide to close out their position.
If big positions or institutions close all at once it can create an avalanche effect. Indicators of a short squeeze A stock, currency, or commodity that is highly shorted or is overextended to the sell side is often ripe for a squeeze. In addition, if the underlying asset is getting closer to an area of support or resistance it may show that the selling has dried up.
Shorters may then need to close their positions soon otherwise they risk holding losing positions If a stock is bottoming or basing it may indicate that buyers are beginning to take control of the price again. This shows that the asset has reached a point where it really can’t fall any further in price because buyers see too much value. A shift in the relative volume can indicate that either a big position is closing or buyers have found an area of value and that the price might be ready to reverse.
The large volume can also indicate that an institution is playing an active role in the price. It is usually good practice to follow where the big money is when trading. Squeezing in the current market A short squeeze can represent a great opportunity to profit for traders.
They can often be explosive moves and last for days. This means that whether you are a swing trader, day trader, or a scalper anyone can capitalise on a squeeze. In addition, with the current state of the market having one of its worst first half of the years in history, with bearish sentiment being very high.
The Nasdaq in particular and growth stocks in particular have seen their value smashed. As big short positions have been taken at some stage they will have to be closed and if the market can rally, then this phenomenon may become more regular. For instance the company ZIP a strong player in the Buy Now Player Sector had seen its share priced reduced to a fraction of its peak prior to just a few weeks ago.
However as seen in the chart below, a shift in volume was the first signal that the stock was about squeeze and shift strongly to the upside. In this instance, ZIP on the weekly chart saw a massive jump in volume, followed by an even larger jump in volume the following week. Importantly ZIP, according to (Shortman.com.au) had a short % of 7.34 on July 1 2022, prior to the breakout.
Looking at the daily chart underneath, the sheer volume of buying continued to get larger and larger which is indictive of a short squeeze as large positions began to close. The subsequent price action provided great consistent buying opportunities for traders.
We are four months into 2016 and the global economic prospects are still uncertain. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief has just issued another warning in recent days, stating that the outlook for global growth is weak and has encouraged policy makers across the world to work together to “bolster confidence, support growth, and guard more effectively against the risk of a derailed recovery”. According to the IMF, lower consumer-led expenditure and governments that are less likely to use fiscal facets to support the economy, coupled with high levels of public debt (which are now the highest since World War 2) are creating a prolonged low-growth environment that can have very serious socio-economic implications.
Most of the developed nations have already embarked on a negative interest rates policy to address the low economic growth. However, as evidenced by this warning, their efforts have not yet been successful and markets and economies are still facing many uncertainties. Euro Area interest rates at various maturities Potential Trading Opportunities Although sluggish growth and negative interest rates are not pleasing for the majority of fund managers and pensioners, certain drivers and trends can potentially create opportunities to the benefit of traders.
Below is an overview of some of these drivers and their follow-on impact on the Japanese Yen, ASX200, gold and the Aussie dollar. Please note that these are our analysis of the market environment. They are not trade recommendations and you should have your own risk management strategy in place when trading the markets. 1) Opportunities and challenges in the banking sector All traders, whether equity or FX, should always keep an eye on the banking sector because stress and pressure in this space can affect every tradeable security across the globe (remember GFC?).
The low growth environment has put banks under downward pressure from various sources. First, it has limited the amount of investment activities which has inherently meant lower revenues for banks which are the traditional providers of investment capital. Second, it has made many banks deal with negative interest rates.
Banks are not yet willing to pass the negative rates to their customers because they want to keep their market share and to discourage people from cashing in their deposits. Therefore, negative rates have caused bank profits to shrink as the difference between interests they receive and the interest they pay has narrowed. Third, the prolonged lower commodity prices resulting from slower demand from China and other emerging economies has pushed a number of mining and energy companies, which have had large debts, to the edge of bankruptcy.
This is obviously bearish for banks as they have been the capital (loans) providers to these companies. Although Australian banks don’t yet have to deal with prospects of negative rates, they have pretty much remained in synch with their overseas counterparts, thanks to the end of the mining boom and lower commodity prices and bankruptcies in the mining and energy sector. For example, ANZ Bank has just announced that they will lose an extra $100 million in mining related bad debts.
Furthermore, Aussie banks are quite vulnerable to the property market here in Australia. Over the years, Australian banks have loaned out billions of dollars to property investors and therefore would have a lot to lose should the property market bubble burst. Major four banks performance From a trading perspective, deterioration in the banking sector can cause a chain of systematic risks which in turn may switch on a number of “risk off” trades.
Using the historical relationship between banks and asset markets, I have calculated that if the current downward trend in global and domestic banks accelerates and markets start to price in an additional weakness in this sector, some trading opportunities may arise in AUDUSD, AUDJPY, ASX 200 and Gold (In AUD). The table below shows how much these assets may move should Australian banks drop by an extra 20% from here: As you can see, ASX 200 index and AUDJPY traders may actually find meaningful medium-term trends should the banking sector start to deteriorate again. AUDJPY has recently enjoyed great buying support from yield-hungry Japanese investors as Australian currency offers a relative attractive yield.
At the moment, the pair has found solid resistance around 86.00 and deterioration in the banking sector can be a catalyst for this resistance to uphold and push the currency pair back to the 78 -79 band. 2) Trading Interest Rates Movements The U.S interest rate set by the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in any short and medium term trading. In response to continued low growth prospects and in the aftermath of the January and February volatilities, the once hawkish Fed which was singling 4 rate rises for this year, has stepped back and is currently signalling a rather softer tone towards rate rises. Just to remind the readers that interest rates are a measure of economic activities.
When policy makers think the economic conditions are getting stronger, they would raise interest rates to control the inflation. When they see economic conditions worsening, they reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy. The graph below (also known as the Dot Plot in the investment community) shows how the Fed governors were thinking about the 2016 economy (in terms of interest rates) both in Dec 2015 and March 2016.
The numbers on the left axis are the projected interest rates and the size of each circle shows the number of governors forecasting a particular rate. As you can see, in Dec 2015, the majority of Fed officials were thinking the rates would go around 1.35% by the end of 2016. However, since then, things have changed and the majority of Fed governors are now thinking we are more likely to be around 0.85% by the end of 2016.
Should the above dots keeps falling to the stage where U.S signals a possible rate cut and more importantly, a move towards negative interest rates, it will have some drastic impact on many tradeable securities. If markets start to price in any chance of U.S rates going negative, the Aussie dollar will lose significant amounts to USD, JPY and gold. The details are in the table below: Though I’m not predicting that the U.S rates will go negative, we are now living in an unchartered territory where everything seems to be possible.
If you talked about the likelihood of negative rates two years ago, most analysts would have laughed you out the door. But here we are today with most of the developed nations interest rates in the negative territory. Therefore, I would closely monitor anything related to the US interest rates.
US-10 year yield since December 2015 3) Trading Opportunities in USD/JPY pair While analysts are scattered around the future direction of the US dollar itself due to Fed’s change of tone, the case of the USDJPY is relatively straightforward. It’s the world’s most traded safe haven currency and trends downwards each time there is another negative surprise or volatility in the markets. In theory, USDJPY should have gone up when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced negative interest rates earlier this year.
However, due to lack of investment opportunities brought by the low growth world and the fact that this pair acts as a barometer for global risk environment, it dropped by some 9.7% since the start of the year and brought short-term traders an abundance of trading opportunities (please refer to our previous article about this point). At the moment, there is nothing that suggests the current economic conditions are going to disappear. It is possible that the existing downward trend USDJPY can in fact continue for as long as the Fed is not taking a serious stance on U.S interest rates.
The biggest risk to the above scenario is a possible BOJ market intervention. The stronger Yen (lower USDJPY) is negative for Japanese economy as it makes their products more expensive abroad. Japan’s economy is highly export driven and higher Yen does not help.
Therefore, at some stage BOJ may decide that enough is enough and start selling Yen in a large scale to push their currency lower. But if history is of any guidance, BOJ’s probable intervention may only create additional shorting opportunity as these interventions have a poor record of effectiveness in changing the currency pair’s downward trends. The opinions and information conveyed in the GO Markets newsletter are the views of the author and are not designed to constitute advice.
Trading Forex and CFD’s is high risk. Ramin Rouzabadi (CFA, CMT) | Trading Analyst Ramin is a broadly skilled investment analyst with over 13 years of domestic and international market experience in equities and derivatives. With his financial analysis (CFA) and market technician (CMT) background, Ramin is adept at identifying market opportunities and is experienced in developing statistically sound investment strategies.
Connect with Ramin: Twitter | LinkedIn
One of the worlds most profitable Hedge Fund Managers Paul Tudor Jones called it in Tony Robbins Money Master Book " my #1 Trading indicator " and some of my colleagues in institutions and banks have referred to it as a key barometer for where substantial money flow often occurs. I am referring to the 200-Day Moving Average on a Daily chart and as the charts will demonstrate below the 200 MA (moving average) not only has the potential to reverse a currency market but can also be a general guide to where the overall trend is. So how can you use the 200 MA to potentially improve your strike rate in the currency markets?
It is generally viewed by most professional traders that if price is above the 200 MA they will not attempt to short a currency and will generally only look to use their trading system to buy into the market they are trading. The opposite when price is below the 200 MA, they will generally look to only short the currency pair they are trading. Trading systems that appear to have an edge on a higher time frame such as a 4-hour or daily chart can potentially be enhanced by applying this rule of thumb.
Following are 4 charts showing the 200 MA on a Daily Chart. If you’d like to apply a 200 MA to your MT4 platform simply go to the Menu at the top of the page, click on Insert, then click on indicators and then trend. You will see Moving Average listed there for you to click on and load.
Make sure you input 200 into the Period box under Parameters. Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Connect with Andrew: Email