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2026年4月，哪些外汇货币对的变动幅度最大，为什么？
GO Markets
31/3/2026
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从4月之前外汇市场的实际情况开始：地缘政治冲击，中东的石油供应受到压力。整个货币市场的直接反应是交易者以前所见过的：资金流向安全，向收益率转移，并远离任何看似可能受到干扰的东西。

避险资金流遇收益率差异

美元同时受益于这两种力量。它是一个避风港，它还具有目前大多数同行无法比拟的收益优势。瑞士法郎吸收了欧洲避险情绪带来的部分溢出。过去几乎自动吸引避险资金的日元却陷入了完全不同的境地，现在兑美元的收益率差距如此之大，以至于避险逻辑被套利逻辑所取代。

本月最艰难的货币是处于中间位置的货币：风险敏感型、与大宗商品挂钩的货币或根本无法竞争的运行政策利率。新西兰元是最明显的例子，而澳元则是一个更混乱的故事。其背后是对2026年降息预期的重新定价，多个国家的中央银行现在正在重新评估这些预期。

DXY context

Regained 100 on geopolitical risk

Strongest currency

USD — safe haven plus yield

Weakest currency

NZD — yield gap plus energy

Main central bank theme

Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths

Main catalyst ahead

Fed and BOJ policy meetings

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03 JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05 NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak

最强推动者：美元（美元）

随着美联储降息和世界其他地区追赶，美元在2025年的大部分时间里逐渐下跌。这个故事在三月下旬停滞不前。伊朗冲突改变了计算方式，美元重新站稳了脚跟，这在某种程度上反映了其在全球市场中的结构性地位。

美国出口石油，当能源价格上涨时，这是贸易条件的改善，而不是贸易条件的冲击。美元的大多数主要货币都处于这个方程式的另一边。再加上3.50％至3.75％的政策利率区间，该区间现在看起来锁定了更长时间，美元的优势既是周期性的，也是结构性的。美元指数（DXY）已重回100水平，但进入4月份的问题是它是保持在这一水平还是进一步推动。

Key drivers

  • Safe-haven demand: The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
  • Yield advantage: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
  • Energy insulation: The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
  • Rate cut repricing: Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.

What markets are watching next

The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.

The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.

最弱的走势：新西兰元（NZD）

如果你想设计一种在当前环境下会陷入困境的货币，那么新西兰元几乎完全符合这个要求。它对风险敏感。它与大宗商品挂钩。它的政策利率为2.25％，低于美联储，现在也低于澳洲联储。新西兰也是能源进口国，因此油价上涨同时打击了贸易平衡和国内通货膨胀前景。

这些都不是什么新鲜事物，但在美元飙升和普遍避险情绪的背景下，所有这些因素同时冲击，以一种不容忽视的方式压制了纽元。曾经使新西兰元具有吸引力的套利交易已经逆转，因为资本一直在流出，而不是流入。

Key drivers

  • Energy import exposure: Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
  • Yield gap: The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
  • Risk-off positioning: As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
  • Trade uncertainty: Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.

Risks and constraints

Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.

美元/日元

美元/日元是最清楚地说明当货币的避险地位被套利逻辑所覆盖时会发生什么情况的货币对。日元曾经是交易者在地缘政治压力下寻求保护的第一个停靠港。这种动态已经被抑制，原因很简单：你现在为了持有日元而放弃了太多的收益率。

日本银行（BOJ）的政策利率为0.75％，而美联储的政策利率为3.50％至3.75％，这一差距不鼓励避险资金流动。它鼓励以日元借款并在其他地方部署。因此，尽管美元因地缘政治风险而上涨，但日元也因同样的事件而下跌。这不是它应该如何运作，但当收益率差异如此之大时，数学就是这样计算的。

美元/日元位于159附近，这与日本财政部一直将160列为需要关注的水平相差不远。4月27日和28日的日本央行会议现在是真正的现场直播。

Key events to watch

  • Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT): March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
  • BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST): Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
  • Intervention watch: Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.

What could shift the outlook

A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.

For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.

接下来要关注的数据

未来几周，有四个事件是最明显的潜在外汇催化剂。两者都有通向利率预期的直接传导渠道，利率预期是目前外汇市场的大部分变动的推动力。

Key dates and FX sensitivity

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT

A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.

3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT

A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.

10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST

The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.

27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST

The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.

关键关卡和信号

这些是交易者和决策者最密切关注的参考点。每一个都可能是定位转变或官方应对措施的潜在触发因素。

  • ◆
    DXY 100.00

    A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$120

    A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.

One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.

‍

进入更广阔的外汇世界，并在条件变化时保持灵活性。
开设一个账户 · 登录
By
GO Markets

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Central Banks
2026年4月，哪些外汇货币对的变动幅度最大，为什么？

从4月之前外汇市场的实际情况开始：地缘政治冲击，中东的石油供应受到压力。整个货币市场的直接反应是交易者以前所见过的：资金流向安全，向收益率转移，并远离任何看似可能受到干扰的东西。

避险资金流遇收益率差异

美元同时受益于这两种力量。它是一个避风港，它还具有目前大多数同行无法比拟的收益优势。瑞士法郎吸收了欧洲避险情绪带来的部分溢出。过去几乎自动吸引避险资金的日元却陷入了完全不同的境地，现在兑美元的收益率差距如此之大，以至于避险逻辑被套利逻辑所取代。

本月最艰难的货币是处于中间位置的货币：风险敏感型、与大宗商品挂钩的货币或根本无法竞争的运行政策利率。新西兰元是最明显的例子，而澳元则是一个更混乱的故事。其背后是对2026年降息预期的重新定价，多个国家的中央银行现在正在重新评估这些预期。

DXY context

Regained 100 on geopolitical risk

Strongest currency

USD — safe haven plus yield

Weakest currency

NZD — yield gap plus energy

Main central bank theme

Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths

Main catalyst ahead

Fed and BOJ policy meetings

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03 JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05 NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak

最强推动者：美元（美元）

随着美联储降息和世界其他地区追赶，美元在2025年的大部分时间里逐渐下跌。这个故事在三月下旬停滞不前。伊朗冲突改变了计算方式，美元重新站稳了脚跟，这在某种程度上反映了其在全球市场中的结构性地位。

美国出口石油，当能源价格上涨时，这是贸易条件的改善，而不是贸易条件的冲击。美元的大多数主要货币都处于这个方程式的另一边。再加上3.50％至3.75％的政策利率区间，该区间现在看起来锁定了更长时间，美元的优势既是周期性的，也是结构性的。美元指数（DXY）已重回100水平，但进入4月份的问题是它是保持在这一水平还是进一步推动。

Key drivers

  • Safe-haven demand: The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
  • Yield advantage: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
  • Energy insulation: The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
  • Rate cut repricing: Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.

What markets are watching next

The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.

The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.

最弱的走势：新西兰元（NZD）

如果你想设计一种在当前环境下会陷入困境的货币，那么新西兰元几乎完全符合这个要求。它对风险敏感。它与大宗商品挂钩。它的政策利率为2.25％，低于美联储，现在也低于澳洲联储。新西兰也是能源进口国，因此油价上涨同时打击了贸易平衡和国内通货膨胀前景。

这些都不是什么新鲜事物，但在美元飙升和普遍避险情绪的背景下，所有这些因素同时冲击，以一种不容忽视的方式压制了纽元。曾经使新西兰元具有吸引力的套利交易已经逆转，因为资本一直在流出，而不是流入。

Key drivers

  • Energy import exposure: Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
  • Yield gap: The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
  • Risk-off positioning: As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
  • Trade uncertainty: Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.

Risks and constraints

Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.

美元/日元

美元/日元是最清楚地说明当货币的避险地位被套利逻辑所覆盖时会发生什么情况的货币对。日元曾经是交易者在地缘政治压力下寻求保护的第一个停靠港。这种动态已经被抑制，原因很简单：你现在为了持有日元而放弃了太多的收益率。

日本银行（BOJ）的政策利率为0.75％，而美联储的政策利率为3.50％至3.75％，这一差距不鼓励避险资金流动。它鼓励以日元借款并在其他地方部署。因此，尽管美元因地缘政治风险而上涨，但日元也因同样的事件而下跌。这不是它应该如何运作，但当收益率差异如此之大时，数学就是这样计算的。

美元/日元位于159附近，这与日本财政部一直将160列为需要关注的水平相差不远。4月27日和28日的日本央行会议现在是真正的现场直播。

Key events to watch

  • Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT): March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
  • BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST): Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
  • Intervention watch: Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.

What could shift the outlook

A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.

For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.

接下来要关注的数据

未来几周，有四个事件是最明显的潜在外汇催化剂。两者都有通向利率预期的直接传导渠道，利率预期是目前外汇市场的大部分变动的推动力。

Key dates and FX sensitivity

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT

A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.

3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT

A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.

10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST

The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.

27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST

The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.

关键关卡和信号

这些是交易者和决策者最密切关注的参考点。每一个都可能是定位转变或官方应对措施的潜在触发因素。

  • ◆
    DXY 100.00

    A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$120

    A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.

One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.

‍

进入更广阔的外汇世界，并在条件变化时保持灵活性。
开设一个账户 · 登录
GO Markets
•
March 31, 2026
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
AI
2026年4月美联储观察：石油、通货膨胀和联邦公开市场委员会解释

这是四月开始时的情况。一场战争正在影响世界上最重要的石油阻塞点之一。布伦特原油交易价格高于100美元。而美联储（Fed）在2025年的大部分时间里都在设计软着陆，现在面临的通货膨胀威胁与其说是由工资、服务业或国内经济驱动的，不如说是由能源驱动的。它正在关注石油冲击。

联邦基金利率为3.50％至3.75％。下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于4月28日和29日举行，市场面临的关键问题不是美联储是否会削减，而是美联储能否削减，或者能源冲击是否可能在2026年的大部分时间里关闭了这扇大门。

大量重要数据将于4月发布。3月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）、非农就业人数（NFP）和第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）的预估是最重要的三个。但联邦公开市场委员会4月29日的声明可能为今年余下的时间定下了基调。

Fed Funds Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Next FOMC

28–29 April 2026

Brent crude

Above US$100

Key data events

12 major releases

增长：业务活动和需求

想想今年的美国经济是什么样子：人工智能驱动的资本支出（capex）是增长叙事的重要组成部分，企业投资意向看上去很坚定，《一、大、美法案》已经在其中了。从表面上看，增长故事看起来很扎实。

然后，霍尔木兹海峡的局势改变了计算方式。不是因为美国是净能源进口国，事实并非如此，而且结构隔热很重要。但是，对美国能源生产商有利的东西仍然可以挤压其他地方的利润率并压制全球需求。4月30日的第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）预估现在可以从两个角度来解读：冲击前经济有多强劲，以及它可能对未来几个季度发出什么信号。

Key dates (AEST)

2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
  • Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
  • Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Equities
Stronger than expected growth ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer Risk off if stagflation narrative builds

劳工：工资和就业

根据你的阅读方式，二月份的就业报告要么是短暂的，要么是一个警告信号。非农就业人数（NFP）下降了92,000人，失业率小幅上升至4.4％，官方说天气起了作用。这可能是真的，但这也是发生的事情。作为维持高利率的主要论点，劳动力市场突然显得不那么令人信服了。

4月3日的3月就业报告现在确实具有重要意义。回归正的薪资增长可能会稳定紧张情绪，而连续第二次的软打印，尤其是在能源价格上涨的背景下，将开始给美联储带来非常不舒服的说法。它将同时考虑就业增长放缓和通货膨胀威胁。那不是一个舒适的地方。

Key dates (AEST)

3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
  • Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
  • Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
  • Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising

通货膨胀：消费者价格指数、PPI和个人消费支出

关于通货膨胀目前的走向，这是一个令人不安的真相。在任何石油冲击结束之前，美联储首选的核心个人消费支出（PCE）在1月份已经同比增长了3.1％。美联储并未完全解决其通货膨胀问题，相反，它已经放慢了通货膨胀的速度。那是另一回事。

现在，除了尚未完全解决的通货膨胀问题外，油价还大幅上涨。能源价格可以通过汽油、运输和物流成本相对较快地纳入消费者物价指数（CPI），这些成本最终会出现在几乎所有物品的价格中。4月10日的3月CPI数据可能是本月最重要的单一数据发布，它可能会告诉我们能源冲击是否已经出现在美联储关注的数字中。

Key dates (AEST)

10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
  • PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
  • PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
  • Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Gold
Cooling core inflation ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer ↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer ↓ Headwind

政策、贸易和收益

4月也是美国财报季的开始，本季度的业绩具有异常的分量。在回报即将到来的基础上，投资者一直在向人工智能基础设施注入资金。问题是何时。随着地缘政治波动推动人们从以增长为导向的技术转向能源和国防，摩根大通4月14日的财报将既考虑管理层对宏观环境的看法，也要考虑数字本身。

然后是4月28日和29日的联邦公开市场委员会会议。在4月初公布包括NFP、CPI和生产者物价指数（PPI）在内的数据之后，美联储将有足够的信息来更新其措辞。无论是表明降息可能持续到2026年，还是稍微半开着大门，都可能是本季度最重要的沟通。

地缘政治波动已经促使投资者重新评估以增长为主的定位。估计耗资6,500亿美元的人工智能基础设施建设在投资回报率方面也受到更严格的审查。如果财报季在这方面令人失望，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示将长期搁置，那么这种组合可能会考验进入5月的风险偏好。

Monitor this month (AEST)

  • ◆
    14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

    The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.

  • ◆
    15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings

    A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.

  • ◆
    28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement

    The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic

    A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions

    Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.

The Bigger Picture

Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.

‍

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GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
Index
Announcments
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
2026 年 4 月亚太地区的市场驱动因素是什么？

4月初，亚太市场将重点关注霍尔木兹海峡的长期混乱如何影响通货膨胀、贸易流量和政策预期。中国的第十五个五年计划将注意力转移到人工智能和技术自力更生上，这对供应链和区域增长产生了连锁反应。日本和澳大利亚都面临着管理进口能源通胀的挑战，同时衡量在不影响国内需求的情况下可以在多大程度上实现政策正常化。

对于交易者而言，能源价格上涨和政策分歧相结合，可能会使区域指数和货币的波动性升高。

Key watchlist

Top China data point

March exports (14 April)

Top Japan event

BOJ rate decision (27-28 April)

Top Australia event

March quarter CPI (29 April)

Main regional wildcard

Sovereign AI trade restrictions

Most sensitive market

Nikkei 225 / USD/JPY

Key threshold

Brent crude above US$110

中国

北京的立法者已经批准了第十五个五年计划（2026-2030年），将人工智能（AI）和技术自力更生置于国家议程的中心。政府已将2026年增长目标定为4.5％至5.0％，为数十年来的最低水平，因为它将增长质量置于速度之上。

APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)

Key dates (AEST)

13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High

What markets look for

  • Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
  • March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
  • Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development

Why it matters for the region

China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.

日本

由于能源驱动的通货膨胀有可能卷土重来，日本银行（BOJ）面临越来越大的政策正常化压力。尽管不包括新鲜食品在内的消费者价格在2月份放缓至1.6％，但最近的油价飙升可能会在未来几个月内将消费者价格指数（CPI）推回2％的目标。

Key dates (local / AEDT or AEST)

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI (March)
Statistics Bureau of Japan  ·  Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan  ·  Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High

What markets look for

  • BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
  • March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
  • Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
  • Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds

Why it matters

The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.

澳大利亚

澳大利亚经济仍处于两速分化状态，老年家庭增加了支出，而年轻人则面临着巨大的负担能力压力。继澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在3月份将利率提高至4.10％之后，市场高度关注即将发布的通胀数据，以评估是否需要进一步的紧缩政策。

Key dates (AEST)

16
Apr
March unemployment rate
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium
29
Apr
March quarter CPI (Q1)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
High
30
Apr
March producer price index (PPI)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
  • Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
  • The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
  • RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement

Why it matters

The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.

‍

Regional themes

  • ◆
    ASEAN demand signals March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
  • ◆
    India growth trajectory Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
  • ◆
    Commodity sentiment Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
  • ◆
    Currency pressure Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.

‍
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监控展开时的动作。
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GO Markets
•
March 27, 2026
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Recent Articles

2026年4月外汇走势，美元走强，美元/日元160，新西兰元疲软，DXY 100，日本央行4月会议，2026年4月美国消费者价格指数，东京消费者价格指数，避险货币，收益率分歧，布伦特原油外汇，外汇展望
Forex
Central Banks
2026年4月，哪些外汇货币对的变动幅度最大，为什么？

从4月之前外汇市场的实际情况开始：地缘政治冲击，中东的石油供应受到压力。整个货币市场的直接反应是交易者以前所见过的：资金流向安全，向收益率转移，并远离任何看似可能受到干扰的东西。

避险资金流遇收益率差异

美元同时受益于这两种力量。它是一个避风港，它还具有目前大多数同行无法比拟的收益优势。瑞士法郎吸收了欧洲避险情绪带来的部分溢出。过去几乎自动吸引避险资金的日元却陷入了完全不同的境地，现在兑美元的收益率差距如此之大，以至于避险逻辑被套利逻辑所取代。

本月最艰难的货币是处于中间位置的货币：风险敏感型、与大宗商品挂钩的货币或根本无法竞争的运行政策利率。新西兰元是最明显的例子，而澳元则是一个更混乱的故事。其背后是对2026年降息预期的重新定价，多个国家的中央银行现在正在重新评估这些预期。

DXY context

Regained 100 on geopolitical risk

Strongest currency

USD — safe haven plus yield

Weakest currency

NZD — yield gap plus energy

Main central bank theme

Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths

Main catalyst ahead

Fed and BOJ policy meetings

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03 JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05 NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak

最强推动者：美元（美元）

随着美联储降息和世界其他地区追赶，美元在2025年的大部分时间里逐渐下跌。这个故事在三月下旬停滞不前。伊朗冲突改变了计算方式，美元重新站稳了脚跟，这在某种程度上反映了其在全球市场中的结构性地位。

美国出口石油，当能源价格上涨时，这是贸易条件的改善，而不是贸易条件的冲击。美元的大多数主要货币都处于这个方程式的另一边。再加上3.50％至3.75％的政策利率区间，该区间现在看起来锁定了更长时间，美元的优势既是周期性的，也是结构性的。美元指数（DXY）已重回100水平，但进入4月份的问题是它是保持在这一水平还是进一步推动。

Key drivers

  • Safe-haven demand: The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
  • Yield advantage: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
  • Energy insulation: The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
  • Rate cut repricing: Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.

What markets are watching next

The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.

The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.

最弱的走势：新西兰元（NZD）

如果你想设计一种在当前环境下会陷入困境的货币，那么新西兰元几乎完全符合这个要求。它对风险敏感。它与大宗商品挂钩。它的政策利率为2.25％，低于美联储，现在也低于澳洲联储。新西兰也是能源进口国，因此油价上涨同时打击了贸易平衡和国内通货膨胀前景。

这些都不是什么新鲜事物，但在美元飙升和普遍避险情绪的背景下，所有这些因素同时冲击，以一种不容忽视的方式压制了纽元。曾经使新西兰元具有吸引力的套利交易已经逆转，因为资本一直在流出，而不是流入。

Key drivers

  • Energy import exposure: Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
  • Yield gap: The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
  • Risk-off positioning: As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
  • Trade uncertainty: Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.

Risks and constraints

Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.

美元/日元

美元/日元是最清楚地说明当货币的避险地位被套利逻辑所覆盖时会发生什么情况的货币对。日元曾经是交易者在地缘政治压力下寻求保护的第一个停靠港。这种动态已经被抑制，原因很简单：你现在为了持有日元而放弃了太多的收益率。

日本银行（BOJ）的政策利率为0.75％，而美联储的政策利率为3.50％至3.75％，这一差距不鼓励避险资金流动。它鼓励以日元借款并在其他地方部署。因此，尽管美元因地缘政治风险而上涨，但日元也因同样的事件而下跌。这不是它应该如何运作，但当收益率差异如此之大时，数学就是这样计算的。

美元/日元位于159附近，这与日本财政部一直将160列为需要关注的水平相差不远。4月27日和28日的日本央行会议现在是真正的现场直播。

Key events to watch

  • Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT): March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
  • BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST): Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
  • Intervention watch: Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.

What could shift the outlook

A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.

For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.

接下来要关注的数据

未来几周，有四个事件是最明显的潜在外汇催化剂。两者都有通向利率预期的直接传导渠道，利率预期是目前外汇市场的大部分变动的推动力。

Key dates and FX sensitivity

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT

A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.

3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT

A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.

10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST

The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.

27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST

The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.

关键关卡和信号

这些是交易者和决策者最密切关注的参考点。每一个都可能是定位转变或官方应对措施的潜在触发因素。

  • ◆
    DXY 100.00

    A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$120

    A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.

One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.

‍

进入更广阔的外汇世界，并在条件变化时保持灵活性。
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GO Markets
•
March 31, 2026
美联储进入4月，利率为3.50％至3.75％，布伦特原油超过100美元，通胀压力仍未完全解决。3月的消费者价格指数、就业人数、第一季度国内生产总值和4月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会可能决定降息是否在2026年的大部分时间里保持不变。
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
AI
2026年4月美联储观察：石油、通货膨胀和联邦公开市场委员会解释

这是四月开始时的情况。一场战争正在影响世界上最重要的石油阻塞点之一。布伦特原油交易价格高于100美元。而美联储（Fed）在2025年的大部分时间里都在设计软着陆，现在面临的通货膨胀威胁与其说是由工资、服务业或国内经济驱动的，不如说是由能源驱动的。它正在关注石油冲击。

联邦基金利率为3.50％至3.75％。下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于4月28日和29日举行，市场面临的关键问题不是美联储是否会削减，而是美联储能否削减，或者能源冲击是否可能在2026年的大部分时间里关闭了这扇大门。

大量重要数据将于4月发布。3月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）、非农就业人数（NFP）和第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）的预估是最重要的三个。但联邦公开市场委员会4月29日的声明可能为今年余下的时间定下了基调。

Fed Funds Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Next FOMC

28–29 April 2026

Brent crude

Above US$100

Key data events

12 major releases

增长：业务活动和需求

想想今年的美国经济是什么样子：人工智能驱动的资本支出（capex）是增长叙事的重要组成部分，企业投资意向看上去很坚定，《一、大、美法案》已经在其中了。从表面上看，增长故事看起来很扎实。

然后，霍尔木兹海峡的局势改变了计算方式。不是因为美国是净能源进口国，事实并非如此，而且结构隔热很重要。但是，对美国能源生产商有利的东西仍然可以挤压其他地方的利润率并压制全球需求。4月30日的第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）预估现在可以从两个角度来解读：冲击前经济有多强劲，以及它可能对未来几个季度发出什么信号。

Key dates (AEST)

2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
  • Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
  • Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Equities
Stronger than expected growth ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer Risk off if stagflation narrative builds

劳工：工资和就业

根据你的阅读方式，二月份的就业报告要么是短暂的，要么是一个警告信号。非农就业人数（NFP）下降了92,000人，失业率小幅上升至4.4％，官方说天气起了作用。这可能是真的，但这也是发生的事情。作为维持高利率的主要论点，劳动力市场突然显得不那么令人信服了。

4月3日的3月就业报告现在确实具有重要意义。回归正的薪资增长可能会稳定紧张情绪，而连续第二次的软打印，尤其是在能源价格上涨的背景下，将开始给美联储带来非常不舒服的说法。它将同时考虑就业增长放缓和通货膨胀威胁。那不是一个舒适的地方。

Key dates (AEST)

3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
  • Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
  • Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
  • Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising

通货膨胀：消费者价格指数、PPI和个人消费支出

关于通货膨胀目前的走向，这是一个令人不安的真相。在任何石油冲击结束之前，美联储首选的核心个人消费支出（PCE）在1月份已经同比增长了3.1％。美联储并未完全解决其通货膨胀问题，相反，它已经放慢了通货膨胀的速度。那是另一回事。

现在，除了尚未完全解决的通货膨胀问题外，油价还大幅上涨。能源价格可以通过汽油、运输和物流成本相对较快地纳入消费者物价指数（CPI），这些成本最终会出现在几乎所有物品的价格中。4月10日的3月CPI数据可能是本月最重要的单一数据发布，它可能会告诉我们能源冲击是否已经出现在美联储关注的数字中。

Key dates (AEST)

10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
  • PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
  • PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
  • Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Gold
Cooling core inflation ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer ↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer ↓ Headwind

政策、贸易和收益

4月也是美国财报季的开始，本季度的业绩具有异常的分量。在回报即将到来的基础上，投资者一直在向人工智能基础设施注入资金。问题是何时。随着地缘政治波动推动人们从以增长为导向的技术转向能源和国防，摩根大通4月14日的财报将既考虑管理层对宏观环境的看法，也要考虑数字本身。

然后是4月28日和29日的联邦公开市场委员会会议。在4月初公布包括NFP、CPI和生产者物价指数（PPI）在内的数据之后，美联储将有足够的信息来更新其措辞。无论是表明降息可能持续到2026年，还是稍微半开着大门，都可能是本季度最重要的沟通。

地缘政治波动已经促使投资者重新评估以增长为主的定位。估计耗资6,500亿美元的人工智能基础设施建设在投资回报率方面也受到更严格的审查。如果财报季在这方面令人失望，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示将长期搁置，那么这种组合可能会考验进入5月的风险偏好。

Monitor this month (AEST)

  • ◆
    14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

    The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.

  • ◆
    15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings

    A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.

  • ◆
    28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement

    The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic

    A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions

    Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.

The Bigger Picture

Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.

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GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
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Market insights
2026 年 4 月亚太地区的市场驱动因素是什么？

4月初，亚太市场将重点关注霍尔木兹海峡的长期混乱如何影响通货膨胀、贸易流量和政策预期。中国的第十五个五年计划将注意力转移到人工智能和技术自力更生上，这对供应链和区域增长产生了连锁反应。日本和澳大利亚都面临着管理进口能源通胀的挑战，同时衡量在不影响国内需求的情况下可以在多大程度上实现政策正常化。

对于交易者而言，能源价格上涨和政策分歧相结合，可能会使区域指数和货币的波动性升高。

Key watchlist

Top China data point

March exports (14 April)

Top Japan event

BOJ rate decision (27-28 April)

Top Australia event

March quarter CPI (29 April)

Main regional wildcard

Sovereign AI trade restrictions

Most sensitive market

Nikkei 225 / USD/JPY

Key threshold

Brent crude above US$110

中国

北京的立法者已经批准了第十五个五年计划（2026-2030年），将人工智能（AI）和技术自力更生置于国家议程的中心。政府已将2026年增长目标定为4.5％至5.0％，为数十年来的最低水平，因为它将增长质量置于速度之上。

APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)

Key dates (AEST)

13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High

What markets look for

  • Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
  • March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
  • Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development

Why it matters for the region

China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.

日本

由于能源驱动的通货膨胀有可能卷土重来，日本银行（BOJ）面临越来越大的政策正常化压力。尽管不包括新鲜食品在内的消费者价格在2月份放缓至1.6％，但最近的油价飙升可能会在未来几个月内将消费者价格指数（CPI）推回2％的目标。

Key dates (local / AEDT or AEST)

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI (March)
Statistics Bureau of Japan  ·  Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan  ·  Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High

What markets look for

  • BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
  • March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
  • Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
  • Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds

Why it matters

The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.

澳大利亚

澳大利亚经济仍处于两速分化状态，老年家庭增加了支出，而年轻人则面临着巨大的负担能力压力。继澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在3月份将利率提高至4.10％之后，市场高度关注即将发布的通胀数据，以评估是否需要进一步的紧缩政策。

Key dates (AEST)

16
Apr
March unemployment rate
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium
29
Apr
March quarter CPI (Q1)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
High
30
Apr
March producer price index (PPI)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
  • Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
  • The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
  • RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement

Why it matters

The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.

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Regional themes

  • ◆
    ASEAN demand signals March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
  • ◆
    India growth trajectory Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
  • ◆
    Commodity sentiment Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
  • ◆
    Currency pressure Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.

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监控展开时的动作。
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GO Markets
•
March 27, 2026
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