市場新聞與洞察
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Markets are navigating a familiar mix of macro and event risk with China growth signals, US inflation updates, central-bank guidance and earnings that will help confirm whether the growth narrative is broadening or narrowing.
At a glance
- China: Q4 GDP + December activity + PBOC decision
- US: PCE inflation (date per current BEA schedule)
- Japan: BOJ decision (JPY/carry sensitivity)
- Earnings: tech, industrials, energy, materials in focus
- Gold: near record highs (yields/USD/geopolitics watch)
Geopolitics remain fluid. Any escalation could shift risk sentiment quickly and produce price action that diverges from current baselines.
China
- China Q4 GDP: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- Retail sales: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- PBOC policy decision: Monday, 19 January at 12.30 pm (AEDT)
China’s Q4 GDP and December activity data, together with the PBOC decision, will shape expectations for China's growth momentum and the durability of policy support.
Market impact
- Commodity-linked FX: AUD and NZD may react if growth expectations or the policy tone shifts.
- Equities: The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and ASX 200 could respond to any change in how investors view demand and stimulus traction.
- Commodities: Industrial metals and oil may move on any reassessment of China-linked demand.
US
- PCE Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- PSI: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- S&P Flash (PMI): Saturday, 24 January at 1:45 am (AEDT)
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and a key input for rate expectations and (by extension) Treasury yields, the USD, and growth stocks. Markets are likely to focus on whether the reading changes the inflation path that is currently priced, rather than simply matching consensus.
Market impact
- USD: May move if rate expectations shift, particularly against JPY and EUR.
- US equities: Growth and small caps, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, may be sensitive if the data or interpretation challenge the current rate outlook.
- Gold futures: May be influenced indirectly via moves in Treasury yields and the USD.
Japan
Key reports
- Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 10:30 am (AEDT)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Meeting: Friday, 23 January at ~2:00 pm (AEDT)
Markets will focus on what the BOJ signals about inflation, wages and the policy path. A shift in tone can move JPY quickly and flow through to broader risk via carry positioning.
Market impact:
- JPY/USD pairs and crosses: Pairs are sensitive to any guidance change and the USD/JPY has broken above 158, but the move could reverse if the BOJ strikes a more hawkish tone.
- Japan equities and global sentiment: Could react if the dynamics shift.
- Broader risk assets: May be influenced via moves in the USD and volatility conditions.
US earnings
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
- Johnson & Johnson: Wednesday, 21 January at 10:20 pm (AEDT)
- Intel Corporation: Thursday, 22 January at 8:00 am (AEDT)
A busy week of US earnings is expected with large-cap names across multiple sectors reporting. Early results and, importantly, forward guidance may help clarify whether growth is broadening or becoming more selective.
With the S&P 500 close to the psychological 7,000 level, earnings could be a catalyst for a fresh test of highs or a pullback if guidance disappoints.
Market impact
- Upside scenario: Results that exceed expectations and are supported by steady guidance could support sector and broader market sentiment.
- Downside scenario: Cautious guidance, particularly on margins and capex, could weigh on individual names and spill into broader indices if it becomes a repeated message.
- Read-through: Early reporters in each sector may influence expectations for related stocks, especially where peers have not yet provided updated guidance.
- Bottom line: This is a week where the market may trade the forward picture more than the rear-view numbers. The key is whether guidance supports the idea of broad, durable growth, or whether it points to a more selective backdrop as 2026 unfolds.
Gold
Continued strength in gold may support gold equities and gold-linked ETFs relative to the broader market but geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty may influence demand for defensive assets.
A sustained reversal in gold could be interpreted by some market participants as a sign of improved risk confidence. The driver set matters, especially whether the move is led by yields, USD strength, or a fade in event risk.
It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) with the stock down by over 14%. On Wednesday, the Chinese e-commerce company announced the latest financial results, which sent the stock higher. Beijing based company achieved revenue of $43.111 billion vs. $42.216 billion expected.
Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimate of $0.661 at $0.747 per share. EPS was up by 10.18% from the same period the year before.
Full year revenue was up by 3.7% from 2022 at $152.8 billion. Full year EPS reached $3.12, up by 25.04% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1998 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 450,680 (2022) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Sandy Xu (CEO) CEO commentary "We were pleased to finish 2023 on a strong note, with upticks in both revenues and profitability for the fourth quarter," Sandy Xu, CEO of JD said in a statement to investors. "JD’s proactive actions have begun to produce results as our decisive focus on user experience, price competitiveness and platform ecosystem drives deeper and more frequent user engagement and healthier user growth momentum.
With the two priorities of user experience improvement and market share expansion, we look forward to creating more value for our users, business partners and shareholders in 2024," Xu concluded his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by over 16% during Wednesday’s session, trading at $25.07 a share – the highest level since 11/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: +8.31% 1 month: +7.18% 3 months: -7.12% Year-to-date: -14.49% 1 year: -47.41% JD.com stock price targets Barclays: $35 Citigroup: $42 Mizuho: $35 Susquehanna: $30 Benchmark: $67 UBS Group: $39 The Goldman Sachs Group: $53 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $31 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $31 Morgan Stanley: $33 Bank of America: $51 HSBC: $70 JD.com Inc. is the 506 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $39.04 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) released earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. The American information technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion for the three months ending on 31/1/24 vs. $7.089 billion estimate. Revenue was down by 14% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.48 vs. $0.449 per share expected. EPS decreased by 24% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Spring, Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,000 (2023) Industry: Information technology Key people: Patricia Russo (Chairwoman), Antonio Neri (President and CEO) CEO commentary "HPE exceeded our profitability expectations and drove near-record year-over-year growth in our recurring revenue in the face of market headwinds, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy," CEO of the company, Antonio Neri said in a press release. "Despite a mixed quarter, I remain very confident that our focus on customer-centric innovation and our track record of operational discipline will allow us to capitalize on the significant market opportunities in AI as well as across edge and hybrid cloud and to deliver value to our shareholders," Neri ended his statement to investors.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.49% at the end of Thursday’s session before the latest results were announced, trading at $15.23 a share. The stock dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.76% 1 month: -1.14% 3 months: -10.20% Year-to-date: -10.57% 1 year: -2.03% Hewlett Packard stock price targets Sandford C.
Bernstein: $17 Barclays: $15 Morgan Stanley: $16 Raymond James: $20 Bank of America: $19 Wells Fargo & Company: $21 Credit Suisse Group: $20 Citigroup: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 The Goldman Sachs Group: $15 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is the 924 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $19.65 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Gold surged again in Monday’s session despite a rise in US Treasury yields and setting a new closing high. There was little fundamental news to drive the rally though a comparable surge in the Crypto markets has seemingly given the other “alternative” currency a tailwind. This is four up sessions for gold and with momentum behind it is eyeing the all-time intraday high set back in December of 2049 USD an ounce, though XAUUSD is trading at extreme overbought levels on the RSI.
The US Dollar index was modestly lower in a slow news day with no US data released. DXY trading between its 100- and 200-day SMA with a range of 103.72 and 103.96. The "highlight" was remarks from the Fed's Bostic, who pushed back somewhat on rate cut expectations, saying there was no urgency to cut rates given the US economy’s strength and when rate cuts start they would not be back to back, this saw yields rise but failed to lift USD.
The Dollar did rally against the Yen though, with rising US Treasury yields ahead of Tokyo CPI today seemingly the main driver. For Yen watchers, BoJ Governor Ueda is also due to speak later in the APAC session in Tokyo and cause some volatility in Yen crosses.
USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD rising above its 100 Day SMA at 1.0814, the 200 Day SMA at 1.0826 and briefly above the 1.0850 level.
There was little in the way of Euro data although ECB President Lagarde did speak where she stated the ECB is not there yet on inflation and noting wage pressures remain strong, supporting the EUR somewhat. JPY was softer vs the USD keeping USDJPY above the short erm support at the psychological 150 level. Higher UST yields supporting the pair seeing it test resistance at the 2024 high of 150.8.
JPY traders’ attention turning to Japanese inflation data today where the National Core CPI is expected to drop to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.3%.
USD was notably weaker in Thursday’s session ahead of the pivotal NFP report on Friday. The US Dollar index falling for the fifth straight session and breaking below 103 to touch on the Jan 24 lows before finding some support. Risk-on sentiment, a fall in yields and weak jobless claims data being the main drivers of the Greenback decline.
JPY saw strong gains against the USD on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, also helped by a tightening in US10Y-JP10Y yield differential. USDJPY continuing its break below the psychological 150 level to hit a low of 147.59. EUR also outperformed vs. the Greenback with EURUSD breaking through the key 1.09 level and entering APAC at NY session highs at 1.0948.
Thursdays ECB policy meeting saw the central bank maintaining rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target. This “dovish” tone saw EUR initially being the worst performer, before EURUSD benefitted from the accelerating in USD selling during the US session. Gold continued its steep rally for a seventh straight session, again setting new all-time highs in doing so.
A fall in yields, a weaker USD and a desire for safe havens pushing the precious metal above 2160 USD an ounce.
Risk off returned to the markets in Tuesdays session with US equity markets pulling back sharply led by tech stocks with the NASDAQ being the biggest loser, shedding 1.65%. The big headline for the day in FX was gold touching on all-time highs, rallying for a fifth straight session, buoyed by haven flows and a drop in US treasury yields. XAUUSD RSI reading in extreme overbought territory at over 78, the highest level since the blow off top in March 2022.
JPY was the G10 outperformer with USDJPY pushing briefly below the key 150 level after a hotter the expected Tokyo inflation print. Yen was also helped by more jawboning out of currency diplomat Kanda who said that markets must brace for higher interest rates environment. AUD and NZD saw marginal losses against the greenback, with AUD modestly outperforming the Kiwi.
In the APAC session both currencies were softer amid disappointment out of China which weighed on sentiment before recovering somewhat in the US session. AUDUSD briefly dropped below 0.65 and hit a low of 0.6478 before finding support to head into the APAC session above 0.65. NZDUSD pushing below last week's RBNZ-led low and 200DMA at 0.6076 to make a low at 0.6072 before recovering to trade above the key support at 0.61.