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周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。



Last week, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) released its latest delivery numbers for February. On Tuesday, it was time for the company to announce Q4 2023 and full-year financial results. Let’s take a closer look at how the company performed.
NIO achieved revenue of $2.409 billion for the last three months of 2023, which fell below Wall Street estimate of $2.558 billion. Revenue was up by 6.5% year-over-year. The company reported loss per share of -$0.396, which was more than -$0.337 loss per share expected.
Full year revenue reached $7.833 billion in 2023, up from 7.143 billion the year prior. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, NIO set a new delivery record of 160,038 vehicles, ranking first in China’s premium BEV market with an average transaction price over RMB 300,000. At NIO Day 2023, we unveiled ET9, our smart electric executive flagship, showcasing a suite of our latest technologies, including our self-developed AD chip, full-domain 900V architecture, advanced intelligent chassis system and various other industry-leading innovations, " CEO of NIO, William Li said in a statement to shareholders. "We will soon start deliveries of 2024 NIO products equipped with the highest computing power among production vehicles and constantly enhance users' driving and digital experience.
Meanwhile, we plan to release Navigate on Pilot Plus (NOP+) for urban roads to all NT2.0 users in the second quarter. Our continuous investments in technologies, battery swapping network and user community will bolster our competitive advantages as we navigate the future competition," Li finished his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by around 2% on Tuesday, trading at $5.44.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.28% 1 month: -9.20% 3 months: -26.31% Year-to-date: -39.64% 1 year: -38.96% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1369 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.38 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) with the stock down by over 14%. On Wednesday, the Chinese e-commerce company announced the latest financial results, which sent the stock higher. Beijing based company achieved revenue of $43.111 billion vs. $42.216 billion expected.
Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimate of $0.661 at $0.747 per share. EPS was up by 10.18% from the same period the year before.
Full year revenue was up by 3.7% from 2022 at $152.8 billion. Full year EPS reached $3.12, up by 25.04% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1998 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 450,680 (2022) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Sandy Xu (CEO) CEO commentary "We were pleased to finish 2023 on a strong note, with upticks in both revenues and profitability for the fourth quarter," Sandy Xu, CEO of JD said in a statement to investors. "JD’s proactive actions have begun to produce results as our decisive focus on user experience, price competitiveness and platform ecosystem drives deeper and more frequent user engagement and healthier user growth momentum.
With the two priorities of user experience improvement and market share expansion, we look forward to creating more value for our users, business partners and shareholders in 2024," Xu concluded his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by over 16% during Wednesday’s session, trading at $25.07 a share – the highest level since 11/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: +8.31% 1 month: +7.18% 3 months: -7.12% Year-to-date: -14.49% 1 year: -47.41% JD.com stock price targets Barclays: $35 Citigroup: $42 Mizuho: $35 Susquehanna: $30 Benchmark: $67 UBS Group: $39 The Goldman Sachs Group: $53 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $31 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $31 Morgan Stanley: $33 Bank of America: $51 HSBC: $70 JD.com Inc. is the 506 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $39.04 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) released earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. The American information technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion for the three months ending on 31/1/24 vs. $7.089 billion estimate. Revenue was down by 14% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.48 vs. $0.449 per share expected. EPS decreased by 24% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Spring, Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,000 (2023) Industry: Information technology Key people: Patricia Russo (Chairwoman), Antonio Neri (President and CEO) CEO commentary "HPE exceeded our profitability expectations and drove near-record year-over-year growth in our recurring revenue in the face of market headwinds, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy," CEO of the company, Antonio Neri said in a press release. "Despite a mixed quarter, I remain very confident that our focus on customer-centric innovation and our track record of operational discipline will allow us to capitalize on the significant market opportunities in AI as well as across edge and hybrid cloud and to deliver value to our shareholders," Neri ended his statement to investors.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.49% at the end of Thursday’s session before the latest results were announced, trading at $15.23 a share. The stock dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.76% 1 month: -1.14% 3 months: -10.20% Year-to-date: -10.57% 1 year: -2.03% Hewlett Packard stock price targets Sandford C.
Bernstein: $17 Barclays: $15 Morgan Stanley: $16 Raymond James: $20 Bank of America: $19 Wells Fargo & Company: $21 Credit Suisse Group: $20 Citigroup: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 The Goldman Sachs Group: $15 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is the 924 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $19.65 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Gold surged again in Monday’s session despite a rise in US Treasury yields and setting a new closing high. There was little fundamental news to drive the rally though a comparable surge in the Crypto markets has seemingly given the other “alternative” currency a tailwind. This is four up sessions for gold and with momentum behind it is eyeing the all-time intraday high set back in December of 2049 USD an ounce, though XAUUSD is trading at extreme overbought levels on the RSI.
The US Dollar index was modestly lower in a slow news day with no US data released. DXY trading between its 100- and 200-day SMA with a range of 103.72 and 103.96. The "highlight" was remarks from the Fed's Bostic, who pushed back somewhat on rate cut expectations, saying there was no urgency to cut rates given the US economy’s strength and when rate cuts start they would not be back to back, this saw yields rise but failed to lift USD.
The Dollar did rally against the Yen though, with rising US Treasury yields ahead of Tokyo CPI today seemingly the main driver. For Yen watchers, BoJ Governor Ueda is also due to speak later in the APAC session in Tokyo and cause some volatility in Yen crosses.


USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD rising above its 100 Day SMA at 1.0814, the 200 Day SMA at 1.0826 and briefly above the 1.0850 level.
There was little in the way of Euro data although ECB President Lagarde did speak where she stated the ECB is not there yet on inflation and noting wage pressures remain strong, supporting the EUR somewhat. JPY was softer vs the USD keeping USDJPY above the short erm support at the psychological 150 level. Higher UST yields supporting the pair seeing it test resistance at the 2024 high of 150.8.
JPY traders’ attention turning to Japanese inflation data today where the National Core CPI is expected to drop to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.3%.


USD was notably weaker in Thursday’s session ahead of the pivotal NFP report on Friday. The US Dollar index falling for the fifth straight session and breaking below 103 to touch on the Jan 24 lows before finding some support. Risk-on sentiment, a fall in yields and weak jobless claims data being the main drivers of the Greenback decline.
JPY saw strong gains against the USD on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, also helped by a tightening in US10Y-JP10Y yield differential. USDJPY continuing its break below the psychological 150 level to hit a low of 147.59. EUR also outperformed vs. the Greenback with EURUSD breaking through the key 1.09 level and entering APAC at NY session highs at 1.0948.
Thursdays ECB policy meeting saw the central bank maintaining rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target. This “dovish” tone saw EUR initially being the worst performer, before EURUSD benefitted from the accelerating in USD selling during the US session. Gold continued its steep rally for a seventh straight session, again setting new all-time highs in doing so.
A fall in yields, a weaker USD and a desire for safe havens pushing the precious metal above 2160 USD an ounce.
