市場新聞與洞察
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周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。



World’s second largest oil & gas company, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), announced results for the previous quarter before the market opened on Friday. Exxon Mobil stated that the revenue reached $84.344 billion for the quarter, which was below analyst estimate of $90.032 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $2.48 vs. $2.196 per share expected – beating Wall Street estimates for the first time since Q1 of 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1882 Headquarters: Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,300 (2022) Industry: Energy Key people: Darren Woods (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary ''Our consistent strategy and execution excellence across the business delivered industry-leading earnings and enabled us to return more cash to shareholders than our peers in 2023 1,'' Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon said in a press release to investors. ''These results demonstrate the fundamental improvements we’ve made to our business, reflecting our progress in high-grading our portfolio through investments in advantaged projects and select divestments, while, at the same time, driving a higher level of efficiency and effectiveness throughout the business. The foundation of our success comes from the resiliency, hard work and commitment of our people. As I reflect on our industry-leading results over the past year, I have a great sense of pride in what our people accomplished,'' Woods concluded.
Stock reaction There stock was up by just under 1% during the trading day on Friday, trading at around $103.38 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +0.29% 1 month: +0.65% 3 months: -4.16% Year-to-date: +3.32% 1 year: -7.70% Exxon Mobil stock price targets TD Cowen: $115 UBS Group: $132 Redburn Atlantic: $119 Mizuho: $117 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $120 Sandford C. Bernstein: $140 Truist Financial: $131 Jefferies Financial Group: $145 Morgan Stanley: $134 Bank of America: $150 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 Redburn Partners: $105 HSBC: $116 Piper Sandler: $127 Exxon Mobil Corporation is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $412.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Exxon Mobil Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


Big tech earnings continue this week with three more of the Magnificent seven in Amazon, Meta and Apple due to report Q4 earnings after the US close on Thursday. So far, we’ve had mixed results from the first three Mag 7 tech stocks, none of them impressed stockholders much, with Tesla, Microsoft and Alphabet all down post earnings to varying degrees, will this new batch turn things around? AMAZON Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts look like they begin to pay off with analysts predicting a significant jump in earnings as compared to a year ago.
Earnings are forecast at 80 cents per share for Q4 2023 versus 3 cents a year ago. Revenue is also expected to jump to $166 billion which is about $17 billion more than for the same period a year ago. Another good sign for the bulls is that Amazon has a good track record with earnings beating estimates every quarter of the last fiscal year.
META Meta comes into today’s earnings after a stellar 2023 where the stock price increased by 194% on the back of the company cutting costs and seeing an increase in users and engagement. Investors and analysts are expecting big things in the latest earnings with consensus calling for earnings of $4.93 per share up from $1.76 a year ago, with revenues of just over $39 billion. Two big parts of the business that will be of extra importance to investors and the reaction in stock price will be Meta’s AI efforts and their growth in China, which has become a growing source of revenue for the company.
APPLE Apple along with Tesla has been one of the Magnificent 7 laggards with the stock price down around 4% YTD. A lukewarm response from investors to their flagship Vision Pro and waning demand for iPhones from China weighing on the stock price. Despite this AAPL is expected to report notably stronger earnings than a year ago, with a consensus of $2.10 per share for Q4 2023, an increase from $1.88 a year ago.
Revenue is projected at $118 billion, a $1 billion increase from Q4 2022. Investors will be focusing on the performance of Apple Services, plans for the Vision Pro and how sales are performing in China. If Apple can allay investors’ fears and provide guidance showing that the Chinese market is solid especially, some of the concerns that have seen the stock down so far this year could be eased.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) posted Q4 2023 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The largest pharmaceutical company in the world reported revenue of $9.353 billion (up by 28% year-over-year) vs. $8.946 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $2.49 vs. $2.296 per share.
EPS grew by 19% vs. Q4 2022. Eli Lilly expects to achieve revenue of between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion in 2024.
EPS expected to reach $12.20 to $12.70 per share. Company overview Founded: 1876 Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana, United States Number of employees: 39,000 (2022) Industry: Pharmaceutical Key people: David A. Ricks (Chair, President, & CEO), Anat Ashkenazi (CFO) CEO commentary "2023 was a year of tremendous achievement for Lilly, which delivered life-changing medicines to more patients than ever before resulting in strong revenue growth," David A.
Ricks, company CEO, said in a press release. "We advanced our pipeline of new medicines for serious diseases and created new partnerships and innovative ways of collaborating to add to that pipeline. Lilly invested in the quality, reliability and resilience of our supply chain with new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the U.S. and in Europe. Entering 2024, we remain focused on the opportunity in front of us, to help solve some of the most challenging healthcare problems in the world and make life better for millions of patients," Ricks added.
Stock reaction The stock initialy rose by around 5% from $705 to $742 at the market open on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high. Shares were flat at the end of trading, falling back down to $705.03 level. Stock performance 5 day: +9.31% 1 month: +12.72% 3 months: +17.52% Year-to-date: +20.95% 1 year: +107.56% Eli Lilly stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $630 Wells Fargo & Company: $700 Barclays: $680 Morgan Stanley: $822 Truist Financial: $650 Deutsche Bank: $535 Citigroup: $675 UBS Group: $710 Bank of America: $700 Argus: $620 Credit Suisse Group: $580 BMO Capital Markets: $633 The Goldman Sachs Group: $470 Royal Bank of Canada: $580 Eli Lilly and Company is the 9th largest company in the world with a market cap of $669.28 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Eli Lilly and Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


US manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), reported the latest financial results on Monday. CAT achieved revenue of $17.07 billion for the three months ending 31/12/23 (an increase of 3% year-over-year), which beat analyst estimate of $17.057 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.23 (an increase of 35.84% year-over-year) vs. $4.765 per share expected.
The revenue for last year reached $61.1 billion, up by $59.4 billion the year prior. EPS also rose by 53.25% year-over-year to $21.21 per share. Company overview Founded: 1925 Headquarters: Irving, Texas, United States Number of employees: 109,100 (2022) Industry: Heavy equipment, Engines, Financial services Key people: Jim Umpleby (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Jim Umpleby, CEO of Caterpillar commented on the latest results in a press release to investors: "I'm very proud of our global team's strong performance as they achieved the best year in our 98-year history, including record full-year sales and revenues, record adjusted profit per share and record ME&T free cash flow." "We remain committed to serving our customers, executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth," Umpleby added.
Stock reaction Shares of Caterpillar rose by around 5% at the open, reaching a new all-time high. The stock ended the day up by 2% at $321.40 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +5.99% 1 month: +9.97% 3 months: +34.88% Year-to-date: +8.70% 1 year: +27.83% Caterpillar stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $270 Standford C.
Bernstein: $245 Stifel Nicolaus: $293 HSBC: $250 Tigress Financial: $295 The Goldman Sachs Group: $274 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $320 Bank of America: $297 Barclays: $250 Credit Suisse Group: $334 Wells Fargo & Company: $285 TD Cowen: $320 Robert W. Baird: $234 Citigroup: $270 Caterpillar Inc. is the 73rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $163.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Caterpillar Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. World’s largest aircraft manufacturer’s revenue reached $22.018 billion for the last three months of 2023, above analyst estimate of $21.184 billion. Revenue rose by 10% year-over-year.
Boeing reported a loss per share of -$0.47, which was less than -$0.777 loss per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1916 Headquarters: Arlington County, Virginia, United States Number of employees: 156,000 (2022) Industry: Aerospace Key people: Dave Calhoun (President and CEO), Larry Kellner (Chairman) CEO commentary "While we report our financial results today, our full focus is on taking comprehensive actions to strengthen quality at Boeing, including listening to input from our 737 employees that do this work every day," Dave Calhoun, CEO of Boeing said in a statement. "As we move forward, we will support our customers, work transparently with our regulator and ensure we complete all actions to earn the confidence of our stakeholders," Calhoun looked ahead as company battles recent 737 aircraft safety issues and tries to rebuild its reputation. Stock reaction The stock took off on Wednesday after dropping to its lowest level since 17/11/2023 the day before.
Shares were up 5.29%, trading at $211.04 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.44% 1 month: -13.48% 3 months: +11.44% Year-to-date: -19.04% 1 year: -1.73% Boeing price targets Bank of America: $225 Susquehanna: $279 Wells Fargo & Company: $225 UBS Group: $315 Barclays: $235 Stifel Nicolaus: $265 Royal Bank of Canada: $275 Deutsche Bank: $270 Morgan Stanley: $220 Citigroup: $271 TD Cowen: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $275 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 The Boeing Company is the 104th largest company in the world with a market cap of $127.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


It’s set to be another busy week of US earnings with The Coca-Cola Company, Shopify Inc., Airbnb Inc., Deere & Company and more expected to announce the latest earnings results. First up, US computer networking company Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) released the latest results after the closing bell on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $1.54 billion for Q4 2023, narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $1.534 billion.
Revenue was up by 20.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.08, which was above analyst estimate of $1.704 per share. EPS was up by 47.51% from Q4 2022.
Full year revenue was up by 33.8% from 2022 at $5.860 billion. EPS reached $6.94 per share. Company overview Founded: 2004 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 3,612 (2022) Industry: Networking hardware Key people: Jayshree Ullal (CEO and Chairperson), Andy Bechtolsheim (Founder and Chief Architect), Chantelle Breithaupt (CFO) CFO commentary "I am truly honoured to be a part of the leadership team that will drive Arista 2.0 products and technology for enterprise, cloud and AI customers.
As we enter 2024, we remain focused on satisfying their most demanding requirements with our compelling, innovative networking solutions," CFO of Arista Networks, Chantelle Breithaupt said in a press release. Stock reaction There was no major movement in share price on Monday before the latest results were announced. The stock was trading at $280.88 a share, down by 0.56%.
Shares fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.90% 1 month: +11.45% 3 months: +33.57% Year-to-date: +19.26% 1 year: +106.53% Arista Networks stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $310 JMP Securities: $325 KeyCorp: $287 Melius Research: $300 Morgan Stanley: $272 Citigroup: $300 The Goldman Sachs Group: $248 Needham & Company LLC: $235 Piper Sandler: $209 Rosenblatt Securities: $230 Bank of America: $225 Argus: $225 Barclays: $200 BNP Paribas: $210 Credit Suisse Group: $151 Arista Networks Inc. is the 178 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $87.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Arista Networks Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
