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周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。


World’s largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), announced second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results on Tuesday. The company achieved revenue of $21.441 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $21.476 billion. Earnings per share reached $1.84 per share (up by 16% year-over-year), which was above analyst estimate of $1.697 per share.
Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 27,560 (2023) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S. Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the second quarter, enabling us to raise our core EPS growth guidance and maintain our top-line outlook for the fiscal year,'' CEO of the company, Jon Moeller, said in a press release to investors. ''We remain committed to our integrated strategy of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority — across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and consumer and customer value — productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization.
The P&G team’s execution of this strategy has enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum. We have confidence this remains the right strategy to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in Tuesday’s session.
Shares were up by 4.39% at $154.35 a share – the highest since 14/9/2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.99% 1 month: +5.71% 3 months: +2.92% Year-to-date: +5.28% 1 year: +8.78% Procter & Gamble price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $162 Barclays: $160 Jefferies Financial Group: $177 DZ Bank: $155 Wells Fargo & Company: $162 Stifel Nicolaus: $151 Sanford C. Bernstein: $153 HSBC: $179 Bank of America: $175 Morgan Stanley: $174 Deutsche Bank: $173 Royal Bank of Canada: $167 Truist Financial Procter & Gamble Company is the 22nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $363.71 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


American online streaming service company, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), released its latest financial results for Q4 of 2023 after the market closed on Tuesday. Netflix reported revenue of $8.833 billion for the quarter (up by 12.5% year-over-year) vs. $8.723 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.11 per share, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $2.219 per share.
The company added 13.1 million new paid subscribers in Q4 2023 vs. 8.97 million subscribers expected – the largest Q4 subscriber growth ever. Total number of paid subscribers has now reached 260.8 million – a new record. It looks like company’s crackdown on password sharing is paying off.
Company overview Founded: 1997 Headquarters: Los Gatos, California, United States Number of employees: 12,800 (2022) Industry: Media, Entertainment Key people: Reed Hastings (executive chairman), Ted Sarandos (co-CEO), Greg Peters (co-CEO) Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.33% at the end of trading day before the latest results were announced at $492.19 a share. The stock rose by around 7% in after-hours trading as Wall Street digested company’s performance in Q4 2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.28% 1 month: +0.20% 3 months: +18.96% Year-to-date: +1.09% 1 year: +35.28% Netflix stock price targets Benchmark: $425 UBS Group: $560 Piper Sandler: $475 KeyCorp: 545 Bank of America: $585 Oppenheimer: $600 Citigroup: $500 BMO Capital Markets: $566 The Goldman Sachs Group: $500 DZ Bank: $495 Wedbush: $525 Morgan Stanley: $550 Netflix Inc. is the 49th largest company in the world with a market cap of $215.42 billion.
You can trade Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Netflix Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) reported Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday to kick off another week of earnings. US pharmaceutical and consumer goods company reported revenue of $21.395 billion for the last quarter of 2023, beating analyst estimate of $21.022 billion. Revenue grew by 7.3% vs. the same quarter in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.29 per share vs. $2.281 per share expected. EPS was up by 11.7% year-over-year. The company achieved revenue of $85.159 billion in 2023 – up 6.5% vs. 2022.
EPS reached $5.20 per share – down by 15.3% from 2022. Company overview Founded: 1886 Headquarters: Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States Number of employees: 130,000 (2023) Industry: Pharmaceutical, Medical Technology Key people: Joaquin Duato (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary "Johnson & Johnson’s full year 2023 results reflect the breadth and competitiveness of our business and our relentless focus on delivering for patients. We have entered 2024 from a position of strength, and I am confident in our ability to lead the next wave of health innovation," Joaquin Duato, CEO of Johnson & Johnson said in a statement.
Stock reaction Shares of Johnson & Johnson were down by around 1% during Tuesday’s session after the latest results were announced, trading at $160.02 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -0.38% 1 month: +2.41% 3 months: +5.74% Year-to-date: +2.02% 1 year: -4.99% Johnson & Johnson stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $215 Raymond James: $175 Wells Fargo & Company: $163 UBS Group: $180 Royal Bank of Canada: $178 Morgan Stanley: $171 Barclays: $162 HSBC: $175 Atlantic Securities: $170 Credit Suisse Group: $175 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $180 Citigroup: $185 Guggenheim: $161 Johnson & Johnson is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $384.14 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


The Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) released the latest financial results for the last quarter of 2023 and the full year on Tuesday. The New York based financial firm reported revenue of $11.318 billion for the quarter vs. $10.797 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $5.48 per share vs. $3.617 per share expected.
Total revenue reached $46.25 billion in 2023. Full-year EPS reported at $22.87 per share. Company overview Founded: 1869 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 48,500 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Lloyd Blankfein (Senior Chairman), David M.
Solomon (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, commented on the latest results: "This was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024. Our strategic objectives underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence, further strengthen our leading client franchise and continue to deliver for shareholders." Stock reaction Shares of Goldman Sachs were up by 0.71% at the end of trading day on Tuesday, trading at $380.45 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.77% 1 month: +0.45% 3 months: +20.26% Year-to-date: -1.99% 1 year: +1.10% Goldmans Sachs stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $357 JP Morgan: $421 UBS Group: $440 Barclays: $493 Morgan Stanley: $333 Oppenheimer: $468 JPM Securities: $440 Citigroup: $380 HSBC: $403 Credit Suisse: $410 Wells Fargo: $390 Bank of America: $425 Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. is the 109th largest company in the world with a market cap of $123.38 billion. You can trade Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Goldmans Sachs Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

USD was flat in Monday’s session with DXY trading in a tight range from 103.110-103. 370 amid a light economic calendar ahead of the major risk events from Tuesday onwards. DXY still capped to the upside by the 50% Fib level resistance as traders look to be waiting for rate decisions from the BoJ, BoC and ECB before taking a USD view. AUD, and NZD were the G10 underperformers.
AUDUSD trading just above 0.6600 early in the APAC session before reversing course and retracing all of Friday’s gains. NZDUSD breaking support at 0.6084 to set new 2024 lows. AUD and NZD weighed on by a broad-based selling in the Chinese market.
JPY was flat against the USD ahead of today’s BoJ policy meeting. Comments from Japanese PM Kishida requesting firms provide larger pay rises this year supporting the Yen somewhat. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any changes to current easy money policy but any mention of a timeline for rate normalisation would be Yen positive.
USDJPY still trading in a tight range, just holding the key level of 148 coming into the BoJ announcement.


The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) released Q4 and 2023 full-year earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $4.459 billion, falling slightly short of analyst estimate of $4.494 billion. Revenue was down by 19% vs.
Q4 of 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share (down by 36% year-over-year) vs. $0.638 per share expected. Full year revenue reached $18.837 billion, down by 9% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reported at $3.13, down by 20% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Westlake, Texas, United States Number of employees: 35,300 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Charles R. Schwab (co-chairman), Walter W.
Bettinger (co-chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Walter W. Bettinger, CEO of Charles Schwab, commented on the latest results: "Over the course of 2023, our commitment to clients was unwavering. Through an uneven environment with shifting views on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, persistent geopolitical unrest, and a temporary disruption within the regional banking sector, our "no trade-offs" value proposition continued to resonate with investors.
Clients entrusted us with $306 billion in core net new assets during the year, including over $43 billion in December alone. This ongoing success with clients helped push total client assets to a record $8.52 trillion at year-end. Additionally, we welcomed 977 thousand new-to-firm retail households as well as 315 advisors-in-transition to Schwab.
In total, we added 3.8 million new brokerage accounts to increase our total client base to 34.8 million accounts." "As we move forward with our key initiatives, we remain as confident as ever in our "Through Clients’ Eyes" strategy. Our client focus has guided our culture and operating priorities for five decades and we believe it keeps us best positioned to sustain long-term profitable growth into the future," Betting added. Stock reaction Shares of Charles Schwab were down by 1.34% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $63.45 a share – the lowest level since 7/12/2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -3.60% 1 month: -5.47% 3 months: +22.40% Year-to-date: -7.78% 1 year: -22.03% The Charles Schwab Corporation stock price targets Citigroup: $70 Raymond James: $78 TD Cowen: $77 Goldman Sachs: $71 UBS Group: $82 JP Morgan: $85 JMP Securities: $77 Barclays: $57 Morgan Stanley: $64 Deutsche Bank: $69 Jefferies Financial Group; $62 Piper Sandler: $75 Bank of America: $53 Credit Suisse: $67.50 The Charles Schwab Corporation is the 120th largest company in the world with a market cap of $115.64 billion. You can trade The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Charles Schwab Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
