市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。



Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67.
On Wednesday this week, the Australian CPI y/y data is expected to be released at 4.5%. While this is still above the RBA’s inflation target level of 2-3%, evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation from the previous release of 4.9% is likely to signal some comfort to the overall rate path for the RBA. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 4.35% during the December meeting, a decision which saw the AUDUSD trade lower briefly.
Further downside on the AUDUSD can be expected if the CPI data is released at or lower than 4.5%, with the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI also indicating bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Look for the price to break through the bullish trendline and the price level of 0.6650 as a confirmation of further downside, with the next immediate support level at 0.6535 and the major support level at 0.63

US telecommunications giant, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), released its latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The company reported revenue of $32.022 billion for Q4 2023 vs. $31.457 billion. Revenue was up by 2.2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimate of $0.557 per share at $0.54 per share for the quarter, down by 12.96% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $122.4 billion, up by 1.4% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Whitacre Tower, Dallas, Texas, United States Number of employees: 160,700 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications, Technology Key people: William Kennard (Chairman), John Stankey (CEO) CEO commentary ''We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance.
As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,'' John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.97% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $16.68 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +1.71% 1 month: +0.66% 3 months: +9.87% Year-to-date: -0.54% 1 year: -18.27% AT&T stock price targets Oppenheimer: $21 Wells Fargo & Company: $20 Royal Bank of Canada: $30 Citigroup: $18 Morgan Stanley: $19 Scotiabank: $18.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 17 Deutsche Bank: $22 Barclays: $17 Moffett Nathanson: $17 HSBC: $19 TD Cowen: $23 Raymond James: $25 Cowen: $25 Credit Suisse Group: $19 AT&T Inc. is the 115th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.33 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AT&T Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) announced Q4 2023 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The American IT and consulting company reported revenue of $17.381 billion for the last quarter of 2023 (up by 4% year-over-year), narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $17.289 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.87 per share vs. $3.794 per share expected.
EPS was up by 8% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1991 Headquarters: 1 Orchard Road, Armonk, New York, United States Number of employees: 288,300 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Arvind Krishna (Chairman & CEO), Gary Cohn (Vice Chairman), James Kavanaugh (Senior Vice President & CFO) CEO and CFO commentary ''In the fourth quarter, we grew revenue in all of our segments, driven by continued adoption of our hybrid cloud and AI offerings. Client demand for AI is accelerating and our book of business for watsonx and generative AI roughly doubled from the third to the fourth quarter,'' said Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM said in press release. "For the year, revenue growth was in line with our expectations, and we exceeded our free cash flow objective.
Based on the strength of our portfolio and demonstrated track record of innovation, for 2024 we expect revenue performance in line with our mid-single digit model and about $12 billion in free cash flow,” Krishna looked at the year ahead. James Kavanaugh, CFO of the company, also reflected on the company’s performance during the last quarter of 2023: ''We again demonstrated the fundamental strengths of our business in the fourth quarter through solid, broad-based revenue growth, continued profit margin expansion, increased productivity gains and strong cash generation.'' ''Throughout 2023, those strengths enabled us to increase our investment in R&D and talent, and complete nine acquisitions to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, all while continuing to return value to shareholders through our dividend,'' Kavanaugh added. Stock reaction IBM shares were flat at the end of Wednesday at $173.93 as investors were awaiting the latest results.
Shares rose by around 5% in the after-hours trading. All eyes will be on the stock at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: +4.73% 1 month: +6.41% 3 months: +26.88% Year-to-date: +6.35% 1 year: +23.56% International Business Machines Corporation stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $183 Evercore ISI: $200 Jefferies Financial Group: $180 Societe Generale: $143 Bank of America: $170 Wedbush: $140 BMO Capital Markets: $155 Royal Bank of Canada: $179 Morgan Stanley: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $145 Credit Suisse Group: $162 Citigroup: $145 Moffett Nathanson: $140 International Business Machines Corporation is the 75th largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.81 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: International Business Machines Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported the latest delivery numbers for Q4 2023 on Tuesday. World’s largest electric vehicle company produced around 495k cars during the quarter. Deliveries reached 484k.
The company produced a total of 1.85 million vehicles last year – up by 35% year-over-year. Total deliveries reached 1.81 million – up by 38% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1/7/2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The stock was little changed on Tuesday, down by 0.02% at $248.42 a share.
Tesla will announced Q4 2023 financial results after the US market closing bell on 24/1/2024. Stock performance 1 month:+ 5.45% 3 months: -1.26% 6 months: -10.67% 1 year: +101.67% Tesla price targets Morgan Stanley: $380 Wedbush: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $300 Guggenheim: $132 Deutsche Bank: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $210 HSBC: $146 Wells Fargo: $250 Citigroup: $255 Piper Sandler: $290 UBS Group: $266 JP Morgan: $135 Truist Financial: $243 Barclays: $260 Goldman Sachs: $275 TD Cowen: $200 Mizuho: $330 Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world with a market cap of $789.70 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat


US professional services company, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), released financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the market open on Thursday. Revenue reached $1.258 billion (up by 6% year-over-year), which fell short of $1.268 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported at $1.08 per share (up by 9% year-over-year), slightly above estimate of $1.074 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Rochester, New York, United States Number of employees: 16,000 (2022) Industry: Business Process Outsourcing, human Capital Management Key people: B. Thomas Golisano (chairman), John Gibson (president & CEO), Efrain Rivera (senior VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal 2024, with total revenue growth of 6% and diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth through the first half of the fiscal year of 10%. The macro-economic environment remains stable for small and mid-sized businesses, who continue to face challenges in both the cost of and access to growth capital; and finding quality talent in the current labor market.
Our Small Business Employment Watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation,'' John Gibson, CEO of the American company commented on the latest results. ''We continue to see demand for our HCM technology, HR and insurance solutions, as businesses struggle to comply with increasing regulations and a challenging HR landscape and labor market,'' Gibson concluded. Stock reaction The stock fell by around 6% on Thursday, trading at $119.72 a share – the lowest level since 28/11/23. Stock performance 1 month: +0.28% 3 months: +5.27% Year-to-date: +3.22% 1 year: +6.33% Paychex stock price targets Barclays: $126 UBS Group: $120 Argus: $130 Bank of America: $106 Morgan Stanley: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $130 TD Cowen: $131 Wedbush: $115 JP Morgan: $134 Robert W.
Baird: $126 Deutsche Bank: $116 Citigroup: $119 Jefferies Financial: $120 Paychex Inc. is the 419th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.07 billion. You can trade Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Paychex Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.
EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.
This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.
Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
