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周三的美国通货膨胀数据是本周的核心,但随着石油价格接近七个月高点,比特币(BTC)情绪发生变化,澳元处于三年高位,交易者在未来一周还有很多工作要做。
事实速览
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月)是降息定价和股票方向的关键二元事件。
- 布伦特原油交易价格约为82-84美元/桶,接近七个月高点,伊朗/霍尔木兹紧张局势引发的地缘政治风险溢价为4至10美元。
- 截至3月6日,比特币的交易价格已超过7万美元,如果本周保持不变,则可能出现趋势变化。
美国:通货膨胀是焦点
上个月的美国通胀数据显示,物价同比上涨2.4%,仍远高于美联储2%的目标。
将于周三公布的2月份通货膨胀率将受到审查,看是否有迹象表明关税转嫁或能源成本上涨正在推动价格回升,或者缓慢的下跌趋势是否仍然完好无损。
3月17日至18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议现在估计,削减的可能性仅为4.7%。本周的通胀数据高于预期,可能会进一步推高降息预期。
疲软的解读为新的削减定价和风险资产的潜在救济打开了大门。
重要日期
- 美国通货膨胀率(二月份CPI): 3 月 11 日星期三上午 12:30(澳大利亚东部夏令时间)
监视器
- 核心通货膨胀与总体通货膨胀的差异是商品价格关税转嫁的证据。
- 2年期和10年期美国国债收益率对印刷品的敏感度。
- 在3月18日联邦公开市场委员会做出决定之前,美元走势和联邦观察重新定价。

油:升高且对事件敏感
布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶83-85美元,52周区间为58.40美元至85.12美元,反映了中东冲突引发的戏剧性走势。
分析师估计,石油的地缘政治风险溢价已经从1月份的62.02美元上调至每桶4至10美元,而2026年布伦特原油的平均预测已从1月份的62.02美元上调至63.85美元/桶。
环境影响评估的《短期能源展望》预测,2026年布伦特原油平均价格为58美元/桶,远低于目前的现货价格。
现货和预测基线之间的差距可能成为本周交易者的有用框架:来自中东的任何缓和局势信号都可能迅速缩小这一差距。
监视器
- 霍尔木兹海峡的事态发展以及伊朗核谈判发出的任何外交信号。
- 环境影响评估每周石油库存数据。
- 石油对通货膨胀预期的影响以及它是否改变了央行的态势。
- 能源板块股票相对于大盘的表现。

比特币:情绪观察
在地缘政治紧张局势升级和新的关税担忧的推动下,比特币在过去17周经历了53%的残酷回调,一直试图稳定下来。
然而,昨天上涨了8%,回升至72,000美元以上,加密货币 “恐惧与贪婪指数” 从持续一个多月的20(极度恐惧)下方跃升至29(恐惧),这表明市场情绪可能发生转变。
周三的美国通胀数据低于预期,可能会为突破提供进一步的推动力;热点报告有可能使比特币回落至其刚刚收复的7万美元水平以下。
监视器
- 周三的通货膨胀反应是此举的主要宏观催化剂。
- 在比特币走强之后,任何向山寨币的轮换。
- ETF流入/流出数据作为机构参与的确认。

澳元/美元:鹰派澳大利亚央行遇上地缘政治逆风
澳元的交易价格接近三年多的高点,并将连续第四个月上涨,今年迄今已上涨6%以上,使其成为2026年表现最好的G10货币。
驱动因素是明显的政策分歧。澳洲联储行长米歇尔·布洛克表示,3月的政策会议已经 “上线”,可能的加息,并警告说,伊朗紧张局势带来的油价冲击可能会重新点燃国内通货膨胀压力。
现在,市场定价表明,在即将举行的会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为28%,而在5月之前将全面收紧政策,到年底再次上涨至4.35%的可能性约为75%。
这种鹰派态度与美联储搁置不前并面临鸽派政治压力的对立面,为澳元带来了潜在的结构性利好。
监视器
- 澳元/美元对周三美国通胀数据的反应。
- 澳洲联储本周加息概率重新定价。
- 铁矿石和大宗商品价格是澳元的次要驱动力。
- 鉴于澳大利亚的出口风险,中国的需求信号。


American wholesale chain, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: September 15, 1983 Headquarters: Issaquah, Washington, United States Number of employees: 316,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Hamilton E. James (Chairman), W.
Craig Jelinek (President and CEO) The results Costco reported total revenue of $57.799 billion for the quarter, which narrowly beat Wall Street analyst estimate of $57.785 billion. Revenue was up by 6% from the same period a year prior. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.58 per share (up by 16.61% year-over-year), above $3.411 per share expected.
The company announced a cash dividend of $15 per share to all shareholders of the stock as of close of business on 28/12/2023. Stock reaction Shares of Costco were down by 1.75% on Thursday at $630.78 a share. The stock was down by around 1% in the after-hours as Wall Street digested the latest results from the company.
Stock performance 1 month: +9.48% 3 months: +12.16% Year-to-date: +38.76% 1 year: +36.54% Costco stock price targets Oppenheimer: $675 Evercore ISI: $650 Stifel: $615 Truist Financial: $619 Telsey Advisory Group: $625 JP Morgan: $605 Wells Fargo: $525 Loop Capital: $630 Deutsche Bank: $652 Morgan Stanley: $585 Bank of America: $610 Costco Wholesale Corporation is the 29th largest company in the world with a market cap of $281.37 billion. You can trade Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Costco Wholesale Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

US technology giant and one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results after the market close in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1961 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 20,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductor, computer software Key people: Henry Samueli (Chairman), Hock Tan (President and CEO) The results Broadcom reported revenue of $9.295 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $9.277 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimates for the quarter at $11.06 per share vs. $10.96 per share expected.
Net revenue reached $35.819 bill for the full fiscal 2023, up by 8% from the year prior. EPS reached $32.94 per share, an increase of 24.31% year-over-year. CEO commentary "Broadcom's fiscal year 2023 revenue grew 8% year-over-year to a record $35.8 billion, driven by investments in accelerators and network connectivity for AI by hyperscalers," President and CEO of Broadcom, Hock Tan, highlighted the reasons for the successful year for the company. "The acquisition of VMware is transformational.
In fiscal year 2024 we expect semiconductor to sustain its mid to high single digit revenue growth rate, with the contribution of VMware driving consolidated revenue to $50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $30 billion," Tan concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Broadcom ended the day up by 2.06% on Thursday at $922.26 a share before the latest results were announced. The stock dipped by around 1% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +0.32% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +63.53% 1 year: +72.16% Broadcom stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $1000 Oppenheimer: $1100 Susquehanna: $1100 KeyCorp: $1200 Evercore ISI: $1050 Truist Financial: $995 Benchmark: $950 TD Cowen: $900 Wells Fargo: $900 Mizuho: $960 Deutsche Bank: $950 Broadcom Inc. is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $378.07 billion. You can trade Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Broadcom Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts, AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), released its latest earnings report for its fiscal first quarter that ended on November 18, 2023, before the US market opened on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: July 4, 1979 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 119,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: William C. Rhodes III (Chairman, President, & CEO), Jamere Jackson (CFO) The results AutoZone reported revenue of $4.19 billion for the quarter, slightly beating $4.188 billion estimate.
Earnings per share reached $32.55 per share vs. $31.573 per share expected. The company opened 25 new stores during the quarter in United States, Mexico and Brazil. One store was closed in the United States.
AutoZone has 7,165 stores as of November 18, 2023. CEO commentary "I want to thank all AutoZoners across the company for their efforts during our first fiscal quarter. The commitment to superior service resulted in our ability to deliver strong financial results.
Our domestic sales results were solid despite tough comparisons from a year ago, while our international business continues to deliver exceptionally strong sales growth. We remain committed to driving sales and earnings growth throughout fiscal 2024, while returning cash to our shareholders," William C. Rhodes, CEO of the company said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction Shares of AutoZone were little changed at the end of Tuesday’s session, ending the day up by 0.26% at $2,671.12 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +0.78% 3 months: +4.50% Year-to-date: +8.31% 1 year: +8.72% AutoZone stock price targets Wedbush: $2750 Truist Financial: $2933 TD Cowen: $2975 Oppenheimer: $2600 Argus: $2920 DA Davidson: $2500 Evercore ISI: $2750 Morgan Stanley: $2750 Barclays: $2742 JP Morgan: $2975 AutoZone Inc. is the 362nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $47.10 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


US software giant, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), reported Q4 and fiscal year 2023 financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported $5.048 billion for Q4 and reached $5 billion mark for the first time (up by 12% year-over-year) vs. $5.014 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $4.27 per share vs. $4.134 per share expected.
Fiscal year 2023 revenue reached a new record of $19.41 billion – a new record and an increase of 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $16.07 per share, up by 17% from the year prior. Adobe expects revenue to reach between $5.10 to $5.15 billion in first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which would fall below analyst estimate of $5.16 billion.
CEO commentary ''Adobe drove record revenue of $19.41 billion in FY23 and 17 percent year-over-year EPS growth, with strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe’s strategy, category leadership, ground-breaking innovation, exceptional talent and global customer base position us well for 2024 and beyond,'' Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a letter to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 1.48% at the end of Tuesday, trading at $624.26 a share.
Share price fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading after the release of the latest results as future guidance fell short of estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +6.44% 3 months: +14.47% Year-to-date: +88.29% 1 year: +86.41% Adobe stock price targets Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 Piper Sandler: $650 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Barclays: $640 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 28th largest company in the world with a market cap of $288.50 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, however this soured during the session seeing most equities finish in the red and supporting the USD with haven flows.
DXY surged through the psychological 107.00 level its highest print since November 2022 and having its biggest up day since February. EUR fell victim to USD strength despite a similar move higher in Euro Zone bond yields. EURUSD pushing below the key 1.05 support level from highs of 1.0591 earlier in the session.
EU Manufacturing and employment data were both in line with expectations, failing to offer the Euro any extra support. Some hawkish ECB talk from member de Guindos where he dismissed talks of rate cuts also not enough to lift the single currency. Technically EURUSD has no clear support from here until the next big figure at 1.04 though it has entered oversold territory on the daily RSI which may lend some temporary support.
USDJPY rose to highs of 149.90 on the surge in US treasury yields just short of the psychological 150 level where traders seem to be wary of pushing through, cautious of a BoJ intervention. Yen weakness came despite jawboning from the Japanese Finance minister and beats in manufacturing data. Yield differentials still the driving force in USDJPY as carry traders pile in, though with some caution at these levels.
AUS and NZD were sharply lower against the USD with risk sentiment souring as the session progressed, base metals also saw pressure, seeing the AUD underperform. NZD also saw notable underperformance but was not as soft as AUD, AUDNZD falling below the key 1.07 level. A big couple of days ahead for the two Antipodeans with the RBA meeting today and RBNZ tomorrow.
Today’s RBA meeting will be the first under Governor Bullock's stewardship with markets expecting the RBA to keep rates unchanged traders will be more interested in the accompanying statement where they will be eyeing any deviations that supports another hike by year-end. Todays Calendar:


US software and hardware manufacturer, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), announced results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter after the market close on Monday. Company overview Founded: June 16, 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) The results Oracle reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates of $12.941 billion (an increase of 5% year-over-year) for the quarter vs. $13.052 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.34 per share, above analyst estimate of $1.327 per share.
CEO commentary "Demand for our Cloud Infrastructure and Generative AI services is increasing at an astronomical rate. As a measure of that demand, Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to over $65 billion—exceeding annual revenue. Our cloud businesses are now at nearly a $20 billion-dollar annual revenue run rate, and cloud services demand continues to grow at unprecedented levels.
Business is good and getting better," Safra Catz, CEO of the company highlighted the growth of the company in a statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.34% at the end of trading on Monday at $115.13 a share. The stock fell in the after-hours trading by around 9% after Oracle missed revenue estimates for the previous quarter.
Stock performance 1 month: 0.86% 3 months: -9.14% Year-to-date: +40.85% 1 year: +41.65% Oracle stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $107 Evercore ISI: $135 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Piper Sandler: $130 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 JP Morgan: $100 Barclays: $147 UBS Group: $135 Citigroup: $138 Oracle Corporation is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $315.22 billion. You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
