市場新聞與洞察

American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced first quarter financial results before the market open on Thursday, setting a new quarterly revenue record. Company overview Founded: March 18, 1850 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (December 2022) Industry: Banking, financial services Key people: Stephen J. Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C.

Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) The results American Express reported revenue that broke all previous quarterly records at $14.281 billion (up by 16% from the same period last year) vs. $13.981 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.40 per share (down by 12% year-over-year), falling short of analyst estimate of $2.656 per share. CEO commentary ''Our first-quarter results reflect strong growth in Card Member spending and continued high engagement with our premium products, tracking with the full-year 2023 guidance we provided in January, which we are reaffirming today, for revenue growth of 15 percent to 17 percent and earnings per share of $11.00 to $11.40,'' Stephen J.

Squeri, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release to investors. ''Revenue grew 22 percent from a year earlier to reach a quarterly record, as Card Member spending rose 16 percent on an FX-adjusted basis. Travel and Entertainment spending was particularly robust, growing 39 percent on an FX-adjusted basis and in March, we saw a record level of reservations booked on our Resy restaurant platform. We also saw an acceleration in spending in our International Card Services segment, which increased 29 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.

Spending on Goods and Services around the globe grew 9 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.'' ''Our customers have been resilient thus far in the face of slower macroeconomic growth, elevated inflation and higher interest rates, with credit performance remaining best-in-class. That said, we’re mindful of the mixed signals in the external environment.'' ''Based on our performance to date and the momentum we see in our business, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our longer-term growth plan aspirations,'' Squeri concluded. The stock was down by around -1% on Thursday at $162.41 per share.

Stock performance 1 month: -0.26% 3 months: +10.54% Year-to-date: +9.87% 1 year: -12.60% American Express price targets SVB Securities: $220 Piper Sandler: $179 BMO Capital: $197 Citigroup: $152 Jefferies: $170 American Express is the 109 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $120.91 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underperformer to see EURUSD hit lows of 1.0668 before finding support at a Fib level, this following a miss in German Industrial orders and an ECB consumers survey showing a sharp decline in inflation expectations.

Adding to the dovish tone was comments from ECB member Knot (a known hawk) who made some dovish comments declaring “the worst of inflation is behind us”. More ECB talk is scheduled for Wednesday which could add to this narrative. CAD managed to eke out some gains against the Dollar in a whipsawing session, USDCAD seeing a low low of 1.3391, breaching the key support level at 1.34.CAD was initially weighed on by lower oil prices, but an improved growth outlook saw Crude oil rebound with the CAD following suit.

Later today CAD traders will have all eyes on the BoC rate decision where the Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, but there is a distinct possibility of a 25bps hike in the wake of the recent beats on GDP and CPI readings. Current market pricing has a 46% chance of a hike priced in, so will be line ball. GBP and JPY were modestly higher against the USD on the session.

JPY pared some of its initial strength by a rise in UST yields widening the UST-JGB differential. GBPUSD traded within a tight range, printing a low of 1.2392 and a high of 1.2458. Weak home building figures and a rising recession fear capping gains on cable as the BoE's aggressive rate hiking campaign appears to be slowing the economy.

AUD was the clear G10 outperformer after the RBA surprised the market again with a 25bps hike to 4.10%, which along with a hawkish RBA statement noting further rate hikes “may be required” seeing AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6685, falling just short of the 200DMA at 0.6692 and holding most of the gains post announcement throughout the session. For AUD watchers today Q1 GDP will be released today at 11:30 AEST, though it could have limited impact given the RBA already opted to hike rates yesterday. Calendar of today’s major risk events:

AUD and NZD, being cyclical currencies (cyclical currencies being ones that are extra sensitive to global risk sentiment) took a big hit in Fridays session, dropping 1.1% and 1.3% respectively against the USD and remain under pressure today. Weak retail sales out of the US on Friday didn’t help risk sentiment, but the rout really started when the USD soared on hawkish comments from Fed governors, (Waller being the most forceful) which saw rate hike odds at the next Fed meeting push significantly higher. Both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have suffered from a shift in market pricing for continuing rate hikes in the United States and Europe, with Fed Funds futures now showing an 80% chance of another Fed hike in May and flirting with the risk of a 50bp hike from the ECB as both banks Governors continue to talk tough on inflation.

AUDUSD AUDUSD is technically still in an uptrend with an upward sloping trend line still in place, AUD was helped along by stellar employment figures out of Australia last week, though the forcefulness of the rejection at the 0.68 USD resistance zone on Friday does put into question how much legs this short-term uptrend has. Traders looking to enter the AUDUSD need to keep these levels in mind, a break and hold of the major 0.68 resistance could signal a push higher and resumption of the uptrend, a solid break through the short term trend would likely see the AUDUSD test 2023 lows before finding much buying. NZDUSD The Kiwi is showing similar price action to AUDUSD, with its major resistance and an area of a real battle between the Bulls and the Bears just above the psychological 0.63 level, with some short term support around the 0.6170 level.

There was a major rejection of the 0.63 level on Friday, in similar price action to the AUD, this also pushed NZDUSD below its 100 Day SMA (which has now turned on a downward trajectory) and just holding above its support zone. Like the AUD, a break below this support zone could see the Kiwi test the 2023 lows around 0.6080 before seeing buyers come back in, any push above 0.63 is likely to see some pushback and volatility in the NZDUSD pair. AUDNZD Despite higher yields in New Zealand the AUDNZD pair has rallied strongly in recent days, helped along by some small pricing in of a RBA hike next month after the strong jobs report.

The pair has now risen well into the 1.08’s after pushing below its 10-year median of 1.07 earlier in the month, showing that AUDNZD continues to be a good buy under this level. In economic news out of Australia, the RBA Minutes form the last RBA meeting will be released tomorrow, which could give clues as to whether the hold is temporary or not, plus NZ CPI figures will be released on Thursday. Inflation figures have been very important in recent times as indicators of Central Bank actions, so we could see some excitement on this figure.

The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting with AUDUSD, we’ve seen a very strong and tight range develop between a high of 0.6818 to a low of 0.6564 since late February, with the AUD moving in unison with risk sentiment, recently a push lower in this pair has been driven by US debt ceiling concerns, and haven flows into the USD.

Using an equidistant four-part grid the buy and sell zones to take advantage of this range trading opportunity become clear. While this range continues, buying in the green zones and selling in the red zones has so far been very successful. This looks likely to continue while the aforementioned US debt ceiling impasse remains in place, though traders will need to be on top of any developments, a resolution is likely to see risk roar back and the AUD take a leg up.

The other opportunity is the relative underperformance of the AUD vs its close neighbour, NZD. This has seen AUDNZD drop below its 10 year mean of 1.07, giving mean reversion traders an opportunity to buy this pair at a discount. Weekly chart of AUDNZD, showing how this mean reversion trade has worked over the last 8 years.

To help with entries, a shorter time frame chart can be used, below is the 4-hour chart showing a strong support zone has formed between 1.0650 – 1.0580 during the last month, where price has tested on multiple occasions before moving back to the 1.07 level. These are two of my favourite trading styles I’ve used over the years, but as always, have an exit plan and keep aware of macro happenings if you are looking to incorporate this style of trading into your toolbox. AUDUSD – US debt ceiling negotiations AUDNZD – RBA and RBNZ rate expectations

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally termed “the Dixie") is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is often used as an indicator of the overall strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Changes in the index value reflect shifts in the relative strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the other currencies in the basket. If the index rises, it suggests that the U.S. dollar is strengthening against the other currencies, and if it falls, it indicates a weakening dollar. The index is calculated using a geometric mean of the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and a selected specific group of six major currencies.

A common misconception is the component currencies reflect what are commonly thought of as including the currencies that comprise the so called “majors”. However, the currencies that make up this basket are, the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF) ONLY. These currencies are then weighted based on their importance in international trade and financial markets to create a quoted overall numerical value, and changes in this value may plotted on a chart as with any other tradable asset class over a set period of time.

Here are the weightings of currencies that make up the USD index currently: Euro (EUR) - Weight: 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) - Weight: 13.6% British Pound (GBP) - Weight: 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Weight: 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) - Weight: 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) - Weight: 3.6% Please keep in mind that these weightings are subject to change, albeit infrequently, and it's recommended to refer to reliable financial sources for the most up-to-date information on the U.S. Dollar Index components and their respective weightings. The impact of the USD on other asset classes The U.S.

Dollar Index (USDX) can have a significant impact on various asset classes, as changes in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies can influence global financial markets and economic conditions. Here's how the USDX can affect different asset classes: Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market: Currency Pairs: The most direct impact of the USDX is on currency pairs. When the USDX strengthens, the U.S. dollar is gaining relative to other currencies in the basket.

Bear in mind that this strength may neither be uniform against individual currencies nor in the degree of price move in specific USD crosses nor even, on occasion, in the same direction. Commodities: Commodity Prices: A stronger U.S. dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices. Commodities like gold, oil, and copper are often priced in U.S. dollars globally.

A stronger dollar can make these commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, hence often there is an inverse relationship to some degree on how these move versus the USD. Gold is often seen as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar. When the dollar strengthens, gold can become relatively less attractive to investors seeking safe-haven assets, potentially leading to lower gold prices.

Equity Markets: U.S. Stocks: A stronger dollar can impact multinational companies' earnings negatively. When the dollar appreciates, the overseas profits of U.S. companies become worth less when converted back to dollars, potentially leading to lower corporate earnings.

Emerging Markets: Many emerging market economies borrow in U.S. dollars. If the U.S. dollar strengthens, the debt servicing costs for these economies can rise, leading to economic challenges. As a result, some emerging market stocks can experience increased volatility or even significant economic pressure over time.

Bonds: U.S. Treasuries: The value of U.S. Treasury bonds can be influenced by the USDX.

A stronger dollar can attract foreign investors seeking higher yields, potentially driving up demand for U.S. Treasuries and affecting bond prices. Interest Rates and Central Banks: US Federal Reserve Policy: The strength of the U.S. dollar can influence the decisions of the U.S.

Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. A stronger dollar might give the Fed room to consider tighter monetary policy, while a weaker dollar might lead to more accommodative policies. It's important to note that market dynamics are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors only one of which may be the USD.

Other factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank actions also have significant impacts on various asset classes, often more so than the USD itself, and indeed may in turn influence the USD. Trading the USD index There are a few ways you can trade the USDX: Futures Contracts: The most direct way to trade the USDX is through futures contracts. These contracts are traded on exchanges like the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

They allow you to speculate on the future value of the USDX without actually owning the underlying currencies. The UDX futures trade on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.) for 21 hours a day. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Some ETFs track the performance of the USDX.

These ETFs attempt to replicate the movements of the index and can be bought and sold on stock exchanges like regular stocks. The most liquid of these is UUP. Options: Contracts allow you to buy or sell options on the USDX at a specified price before or on a certain date.

Contracts for Difference (CFDs): CFDs are derivative instruments that allow you to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. We offer CFDs on the USDX futures contract, which can enable you to go long or short the asset. As part of the extensive product suite offered by GO Markets you have the opportunity to trade both the ETF referenced above, and the USD index (ticker code USDOLLAR). (Keywords: Forex, USD, US dollar, US dollar index, USDX, DXY, Futures contract)

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator used to measure the health and activity level of a specific sector of an economy, namely the manufacturing or services sectors. PMI data is published on a monthly basis and is of three types: Manufacturing PMI: This is the most well-known type of PMI. It measures the health of the manufacturing sector within an economy.

The index is derived from surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies and covers aspects like production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Services PMI: This measures the performance of the services sector, which includes industries like finance, healthcare, retail, education, and more. The services PMI considers factors such as business activity, new orders, employment, and business expectations.

Composite PMI: The composite PMI combines both the manufacturing and services PMI data to provide a broader picture of the overall economic activity in a country. This can be particularly useful for assessing the overall health of the economy. It provides insight into whether a sector is expanding or contracting by examining various business activity components.

PMI is a widely recognised and followed indicator that helps analysts, policymakers, and investors assess the overall economic conditions. The PMI can be viewed as a timely and forward-looking indicator, reflecting overall current economic conditions and provides insights into potential future trends. Here's how the PMI works: Data Collection: Surveys are conducted among purchasing managers from a representative sample of companies in the chosen sector.

These managers are responsible for making procurement decisions, which often provides insight into the current state of economic activity. Components: The PMI survey typically includes questions about various aspects of business activity, such as new orders, production output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. Respondents indicate whether these components are expanding, contracting, or staying the same.

Scoring System: Each component of the survey is assigned a score. A score above 50 generally indicates expansion or growth in that component, while a score below 50 indicates contraction. A score of exactly 50 suggests no change.

Calculation of the final PMI: The scores of various components are aggregated to calculate the overall PMI. If the majority of components show expansion, the PMI will be above 50; if the majority show contraction, the PMI will be below 50. Sub-Indices: In addition to the overall PMI, sub-indices might provide insights into specific components like new orders, production, employment, and more.

PMI – The Market Response The market response to PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data can be quite significant and can impact various financial asset classes. As with any economic data, the market response to PMI releases will be largely dependent on the consensus estimates of each of the numbers (with are theoretically priced into markets to some degree) against the actual numbers released, and how close this is to estimates. A figure that is wide of the mark compared to expectations is likely to produce a more severe market response.

The response depends on several factors, including the direction of the PMI reading, the sector being measured, the overall economic context, the global significance of the country relevant country (e.g. US PMI may have more global market impact) and underlying market sentiment. Although the exact impact will be dependent on the PMI in the overall economic context, generally speaking the following may be some of the common responses.

General asset classes Equity Markets: A PMI reading above 50 is generally seen as a sign of economic expansion and growth. In the event of a better than expected number, this can lead to increased investor confidence in the market's overall health, potentially driving stock prices higher. A number less than expected and/or below 50 is likely as with this and those assets classes below to have the reverse impact, Currency Markets: In the foreign exchange market, a strong PMI reading can strengthen the currency of the country due to increased confidence in its economic outlook, and in interest sensitive environments may encourage central bank action potentially.

Commodity Markets: A positive PMI may signal increased demand for raw materials and resources, potentially boosting commodity prices, notably base metals and oil. Again, the country for which the PMI is released is relevant with a global impact on commodity prices only with the major manufacturing economies e.g. US and China.

Impact on Interest Rates: Central banks often closely monitor PMI data as part of their decision-making process regarding interest rates. A strong PMI might suggest an economy is heating up, potentially leading to discussions of tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates) to reduce the likelihood of increasing inflation. Conversely, a weak PMI might indicate the need for loosening policy (lowering interest rates) to stimulate growth.

Sector-Specific Responses: Different sectors can have varying sensitivities to PMI data. For example, manufacturing-focused indices and stocks may have a more pronounced response to PMI data related to manufacturing, while service sector indices may react more strongly to service sector PMI data. PMI data is a valuable tool for economists, investors, and policymakers to assess economic trends, make informed decisions, and understand the performance of various sectors within an economy.

As traders, our responsibilities are not only to keep abreast of not only when key data such as the PMI is released but to potentially take this into account with reference to potential risks, in our trading decision-making. (Keywords: PMI, Purchasing Managers Index, market data)