市場新聞與洞察
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Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a popular tool used by forex traders to assess the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other major currencies. The DXY is calculated using the weighted average of six major currencies: the euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. To use the DXY to trade forex, you can follow these steps: 1.
Monitor the DXY: Keep an eye on the movements of the DXY to get a sense of the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar. You can use technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or trend lines, to identify the direction of the trend. 2. Analyse currency pairs Look for forex pairs that are inversely correlated to the DXY.
This means that when the DXY goes up, the currency pair goes down, and vice versa. For example, the EUR/USD pair is negatively correlated to the DXY, which means that as the DXY goes up, the EUR/USD pair goes down. Plan your trades Once you have identified a currency pair that is inversely correlated to the DXY, you can plan your trades accordingly.
For example, if the DXY is showing signs of weakness, you may want to consider going long on a negatively correlated currency pair, such as the EUR/USD. Manage your risk As with any trading strategy, it's important to manage your risk when using the DXY to trade forex. Make sure to use stop-loss orders to limit your losses in case the market moves against you.
Currency pairs may be influenced by other factors besides the DXY, which may not be a perfect indicator of the US dollar's value. To make informed trading decisions, it is important to combine the DXY with other technical and fundamental analysis tools.
Gold had been trading strongly to the upside since the beginning of March, rising from the 1810 price area to reach the 2000 price area which was last tested in April 2022. However, after reaching the resistance area, Gold retraced lower to test the 1937.50 support area which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline. Currently, Gold is forming a double top chart pattern as the price again retraces from the resistance level at 2000.
With the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator signaling a potential bearish reversal, a confirmation of further downside potential could be signaled if Gold breaks below the bullish trendline. This could see the price trade lower to test the 1917 level, and beyond that, the 1887 support level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Significant moves to the downside on Gold is likely to be driven by a recovery in the strength of the DXY, due to its inverse correlation with the reserve commodity.
Alternatively, if the market uncertainty increases, arising from further developments in the banking crisis or increased concern over possible global inflation, Gold could trade higher beyond the 2000 resistance level, which would invalidate the double-top formation. A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold trade toward the next resistance level of 2070, which was last reached in March 2022.
USDJPY The USDJPY is on the march higher again after a better than expected Non-Farm payroll figure on Friday saw sentiment shift hawkishly toward Fed monetary policy with Fed fund futures now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bp hike at the FOMC May meeting, up from around a 50-50 split earlier in the week. The policy divergence in the US and Japan and the subsequent yield differentials on their respective 10 year government bonds has been the main driver of this pair in the last 12 months. You can see the close relationship of this in the chart below.
The black line is the difference between 10 year yields on US 10 years – Japanese 10 year years, the orange line, the USDJPY rate. As the US yields increase their gap to their Japanese counterparts, the USDJPY will be pressured upwards as traders look for low risk carry trades. The Yen was also not helped recently by comments from the new incoming governor of the BoJ that indicated that any change to the current dovish policy was not imminent.
Key levels to watch USDJPY has been forming a textbook uptrend since late March. With the upward trend line tested and holding as support on a handful of occasions, a resistance level of 133.85 has so far held any further upside, but is looking vulnerable. Ways to trade this are 1, Playing the range, buying low at the trendline, selling high at the resistance level.
Though whilst the uptrend is in place the more cautious approach would be to stick to buys. 2, Waiting for a break of these levels for the next push. The longer this takes, and the tighter the range gets the more explosive this move could be. While economic announcements out of Japan are very light on the ground this week, The US will be releasing both CPI and PPI figures, how these inflation figures look will have a measurable effect on market sentiment towards Federal Reserve policy and will almost certainly see some big moves in the USD and rates markets, so the break of this range may come as early as tomorrow night.
American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) announced the latest financial results for the quarter ending January 29, 2023, before the market open in the US on Friday. Revenue was reported at $12.652 billion for the quarter (up by 32% year-over-year) vs. $11.337 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $6.55 per share vs. an estimate of $5.565 per share.
The company expects revenue of between $8.75 to $9.25 billion in the fiscal year 2023. CEO commentary ''Deere’s first-quarter performance is a reflection of favorable market fundamentals and healthy demand for our equipment as well as solid execution on the part of our employees, dealers, and suppliers to get products to our customers,'' CEO of the company, John C. May said in a press release. ''We are, at the same time, benefiting from an improved operating environment, which is contributing to higher levels of production,'' May concluded.
Stock reaction Shares of Deere were up around 5% at the market open on Friday, trading at $427.32 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.38% 3 months: -2.43% Year-to-date: -6.02% 1 year: +5.89% Deere & Company stock price targets Stifel: $477 Citigroup: $505 BMO Capital: $450 Wells Fargo: $485 Morgan Stanley: $522 Argus Research: $475 Credit Suisse: $582 JP Morgan: $440 UBS: $452 Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Citigroup: $425 Deere & Company is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.74 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Bollinger Bands are one of the most popular indicators that FX and CFD traders use, invented in the 1980’s they are a technical analysis tool that are widely used by short and long term traders. The main uses for Bollinger Bands is determining turning points in the market at oversold and overbought levels and also as a trend following indicator. Like any technical indicator Bollinger Bands should be used with your own analysis to confirm trades and help set entry and exit levels, they are a fairly simple indicator that focuses on price and volatility only and shouldn’t, in my opinion be used in isolation.
While effective, to use them successfully you will need to be aware of the fundamentals and other technical indicators such as major support or resistance levels. How Bollinger Bands are calculated Bollinger Bands are composed of three lines. The middle line is a simple moving average (SMA), the default period being 20.
The upper and lower bands are the SMA plus or minus 2 standard deviations by default, the SMA period and Deviations can be adjusted in the settings of the indicator if desired, but the standard settings are the most popular settings among traders. When the price hits the upper band the market could be seen as “overbought” when it hits the lower band it could be seen as “oversold”, they can also be used as levels where trends are confirmed, e.g. hitting upper band could be seen as the start of a strong uptrend and vice versa. Day Trading strategies using Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are used mainly in two different trading styles, for contrarians looking for overbought and oversold levels to enter fade trades, or confirmation of trend for trend following systems. Both systems have their pros and cons, as with most indicators it will depend on the market “fee” for the time used, a choppy whipsawing market will see the fading system work very well, a strong trending market will see the trend following system work very well.
As with any technical system, the selection of the market to trade and being aware of the fundamentals driving the FX market at that time are critical.. Just had a Fed meeting where they surprised with a 100bp rate hike? Don’t use the fade system on USD pairs!
A good technical system I have found is useful is a mixture of both of these strategies, using the Bollinger Bands to confirm a trend, then using the fading strategy to trade pullbacks of this trend. Lets look at the example below from the AUDNZD – 5 minute chart from the 23 rd March 2023 In the above example, which is a common price action across all FX pairs, you would be using the Bolling Bands to confirm a down trend after a close below a major low. Once the possible trend is confirmed, we will be using the “overbought” level of the upper band to enter a short trade, with a take profit exit on 2 closes below the lower band, indicating the market may have gone into “oversold” territory and was time to take some money off the table.
This process would be repeated while lower highs were being made, a close above a major recent high along with a close above the upper Bollinger Band would indicate the trend may have come to an end. This can be seen on the chart below, later in the session on the same pair. At this point you would exit the short selling of the down trend and reverse to a long bias, or if your analysis on fundamentals were negative for this pair, wait for a new downtrend to form for another shorting run.
The Bollinger Squeeze Strategy Another strategy popular with FX traders is known as the Bollinger squeeze strategy. A squeeze occurs when the price has a big move, then consolidates in a tight range, this also sees the Bollinger bands go from wide to “squeeze” in a much narrower range, hence the name of the strategy. A trader would be looking for a breakout and close below or above the Bollinger bands of this squeezed range for a trade entry, see the example below from the EURUSD 5 Minute chart on 23 rd of March 2023 When the price breaks through the upper or lower band after this period of consolidation a buy or a sell signal is generated.
An initial stop is traditionally placed just above (or below in a long position) the range of the consolidation. TP rules could be similar to the previous strategy, i.e. multiple closes below the lower Bollinger Bans in the case of a short, or using the middle Bollinger Band as a trailing stop in the move is explosive and looks to continue. Summary As you can see there are multiple uses for Bollinger Bands in a FX day traders toolbox, including using them for overbought and oversold trade signals in a trending market and the Squeeze strategy where an explosive move often follows a period of consolidation.
There are also many more strategies using this indicator which I encourage you to research for yourself.
Bitcoin had a tumultuous 2022 with the leading cryptocurrency seeing an aggressive sell off. Lead by catalyst such including the collapse of Celsius and exchange FTX, the price of the dropped 65% from 50,000 USD to $17,000. The collapse of the large players within the cryptocurrency sphere sent shockwaves as institutions and retailers pulled their funds from the sector.
Further threats of more regulation also threw shade at the legitimacy of the current market and the future ability of the market to operate at the status quo. In more recent times, the price of Bitcoin has not found any significant support and there is no evidence to suggest that in the short term a reversal or a long opportunity will arise. Consequently, traders should be looking at upward price movements as opportunities to entre short until a true reversal is validated.
By looking at the daily chart the price has respected the 100-day moving average. On the prior 4 occasions in which the price has tested this resistance it has failed to break out. Each time the rejection has been accompanied by aggressive bearish candlesticks.
These were sometimes supported by large sell volumes but not always. Using this 100-day moving average line as resistance and waiting for a bearish candle represent a possible short opportunity. This is roughly at $17,900 USD.
The short side target is the break is $15,500 for the first level and then if it breaks through the next support is at $14,000. Looking at the 4-hour chart the price shows that it is still trying to move up with some continuing momentum. Waiting for the 4-hour chart to show some weakness in terms of selling volume or a bearish sequence may provide the entry trigger for a short entry.
Furthermore, the RSI is still in an uptrend. If the RSI breaks to down the side, it may provide some further confirmation of a bread down of the price.