市场资讯及洞察

2026 年1 月 29日，全球黄金市场经历了“疯狂星期四”。金价在站上 5600 美元 巅峰后，随即上演了时速惊人的“自由落体”，一度跌破 5100 美元。这一波动不仅刷新了单日振幅纪录，更让全市场见证了高位杠杆博弈的残酷性。

一、 5602 到 5097：为何会出现 500美元的“闪崩”？

这场高位跳水并非偶然，而是多重压力瞬间释放的结果：

1. 极度超买后的“技术性多杀多”：

1 月以来金价涨幅已近 30%，RSI 指数一度飙升至 90 以上。在 5600 美元这个极值点，获利盘的离场指令引发了连环踩踏，导致盘面瞬间失去支撑。

2. 流动性“黑洞”与自动止损触发：

当金价从 5600 跌落至 5400 附近时，由于短线资金过于密集，触发了海量高频交易系统的强制平仓单。在缺乏买盘承接的深夜时段，金价出现“真空式”下跌，一路跌向 5100 美元 这个前期重要支撑区。

3. 白银市场的溢出效应：

昨晚现货白银从 120 美元高位一度暴跌 12%，作为联动性极强的贵金属兄弟，白银的剧烈崩盘直接拖累了黄金的信心。

二、 核心驱动逻辑的变化：从“单边狂欢”到“宽幅震荡”

尽管跌幅惊人，但 5100 美元 的迅速企稳也传递了关键信号：

•基本面依然强劲：美联储虽在 1 月 29 日凌晨维持利率不变，但其“鸽派停顿”和对通胀的默许，意味着实际利率的下行趋势未改。

•避险底色仍在：美伊局势及全球关税政策带来的不确定性，使得 5100 美元以下依然有强劲的买盘（如各国央行和长线主权基金）在“接飞刀”。

三、 市场新常态：黄金已进入“超高波动率”时代

昨晚的行情告诉我们，目前的黄金已经不再是那个“慢牛”的避险资产，它表现出了明显的“类数字货币”特征：

•估值锚点模糊：在信用货币受质疑的背景下，市场在5100 与 5600 之间反复寻找新的定价共识。

•散户 FOMO 情绪高涨：国内金饰报价突破 1700 元/克，这种全民抢金的狂热，往往伴随着极高的波动风险。

结语：趋势未死，但“杠杆”已死

昨晚 5600 至 5100 的惊心动魄，是一次教科书式的风险出清。它标志着本轮行情从“共识性上涨”进入了“高波动震荡期”。

•长期看：黄金作为对冲信用风险的地位依然稳固。

•短期看：5100 美元已成为本轮行情的“生命线”。

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Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.

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• RBA rate decision: Market expectations lean towards a Target Cash Rate increase.
• Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
• US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
• Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.

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RBA rate decision

• RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
• RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)

A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move. 

Market impact

• AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
• Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.

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ECB and BoE of England

Key decision timing

• ECB monetary policy meeting: 4–5 February
• BoE announcement: Thursday, 5 February

When several major central banks communicate within the same window, markets often focus on forward guidance as much as the decisions themselves.

Market impact

• EUR and GBP volatility may increase around policy communication.
• Relative yield expectations could influence capital flows.
• Equity sentiment may respond to shifts in liquidity assumptions.

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US earnings continue

The earnings cycle remains active, with investors typically focusing on guidance, margins, and capital expenditure alongside headline results. 

After an extended equity advance, consistent outcomes may help stabilise sentiment, while disappointments can influence short-term positioning.

Scheduled earnings

• Walt Disney: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Palantir Technologies: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Advanced Micro Devices: Tuesday, 3 February (US time)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• PayPal: Tuesday, 3 February (US time, after market close)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• Alphabet: Wednesday, 4 February (US time, after market close)/ Thursday,5 February (AEDT)
• Amazon: Thursday, 5 February (US time, after market close)/ Friday, 6 February (AEDT)

Additional notable reporters across the week include Eli Lilly, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, Ford, and Roblox. 

*All above dates observed as of 30 January 2026; dates subject to change.

Market impact

• Index moves may hinge on guidance durability across companies.
• Volatility may cluster around major releases.
• First reporters in each sector may influence other companies yet to report.

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Why gold remains in focus

Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall. 

The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.

Market impact

• Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
• USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
• After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026

Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.

Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion. 

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Key areas in focus

Online stores and third-party services

Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated. 

AWS (Amazon Web Services)

AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.  

Advertising services

Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.  

Subscription services (including Prime)

Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest. 

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What happened last quarter

Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business. 

The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations. 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$180.2 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted) 
• AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion 
• Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion 
• Operating income: US$17.4 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$1.60 
• Revenue: about US$170 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$5.10 

*All above points observed as of 27 January 2026.

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Expectations

Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas. 

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026. 

Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian investors

Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

最近外汇市场发生的一件事，看起来不复杂，就是日元在一个关键位置突然稳住了。但如果只把它当成日本自己出手，可能会漏掉真正重要的部分。

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日元走弱已经不是一天两天了，市场早就盯着几个重要点位。很多人心里都有数，真到那一步，例如160左右，日本大概率会有动作。所以当汇率真的被拉住时，没人会觉得意外。

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意外的是，出手的不只有日本，纽约那边也有同步操作。

也就是并不是日本单方面救火，而是有人在旁边帮了一把。而这个“旁边的人”，并不是普通角色。

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这件事之所以值得反复琢磨，是因为美国其实没有那么明显的理由去管日元。美元并没有强到失控的程度，过去一段时间，市场反而一直在讨论美元是不是被高估，是不是应该分散配置。在这种背景下，美国如果主动压低美元，反而显得有点多此一举。

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那问题就来了，美国为什么要参与？

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答案并不在汇率本身，而是在另一个大家平时不太爱盯着，但更关键的地方，美债。

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可以换一种更直观的方式理解。日本如果想靠自己稳住汇率，最现实的办法是什么？动用外汇储备。而外汇储备主要放在哪里？很大一部分就是美国国债。也就是说，日本一旦大规模行动，很可能就要卖掉一部分美债，换成别的资产，再去市场上买日元。

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这样一来，日元是稳住了，但美债市场就可能被冲击。债券一被卖，价格就容易跌，收益率就会上去。而这件事，恰恰是现在美国最不想看到的。

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在当前环境下，美国最大的顾虑之一，就是利率再被推高。融资成本上去，不只是政府压力大，整个金融市场都会跟着紧张。所以，美国选择了一种更“省事”的方式，直接在外汇市场上配合操作，把对债券市场的影响压到最低。

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这样看，这次行动的重点，其实并不是把日元拉到什么位置，而是尽量不让问题从汇率蔓延到利率。

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从结果上看，这个目标基本达成了。债券市场并没有出现明显波动，利率保持在一个还能接受的区间。美元短期走弱并不意外，但也没有出现失控的情况。日元确实得到了喘息的空间，但更多是暂时的缓冲，而不是方向上的改变。

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说到这里，就不得不提最近被反复讨论的一个词，去美元。

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每当贸易摩擦、关税威胁或者政治摩擦升级，市场上就会出现类似的说法，好像大家都要抛弃美元资产了。但如果真的去看钱的去向，情况其实没有那么极端。

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确实有一部分资金在离开美元体系，最典型的就是买黄金。黄金不属于任何国家，不用担心信用问题，这也是为什么在不确定性上升时，黄金总是容易受追捧。但这更多是部分资金的选择，而不是整体行为。

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从实际的数据看，很多国家并没有大规模抛售美元资产，尤其是美国的传统伙伴。短期内可能会有流出，但市场情绪缓和之后，资金往往又会回去。原因也很现实，可替代的选择并不多，能承载大规模资金的市场，更是屈指可数。

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所以，与其说现在正在发生全面的去美元，不如说大家开始更谨慎了。有人在分散风险，有人在减少单一依赖，但这和彻底离开，是两回事。

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放在这个背景下，再回头看这次日元干预，就更容易理解了。它并不是在宣告某种新秩序，也不是一次激进的政策转向，更像是一次临时的稳场操作。目的很简单，把可能扩散的风险先按住。

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趋势会不会改变，还要看更长时间的变化。但至少在关键时刻，有些底线，仍然有人愿意出手去守。对市场来说，这本身就是一个重要的信息。

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Gold's breakthrough above US$5,000 and silver's surge through US$100 signal this year could be one for the history books for metal traders (one way or another).

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Quick facts

• Elevated safe-haven demand lifts Gold targets from US$5,400 to US$6,000 after early-year US$5,000 breakout.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) and data-centre infrastructure ramp-up could help drive silver and copper demand.
• Continued geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy could trigger metal volatility throughout the year.

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Top 5 metals to watch in 2026

1. Gold

Gold's breakout over US$5,100 arrived three quarters ahead of some forecasts. With Bank of America quickly raising its end-of-year target to US$6,000 and Goldman Sachs projecting US$5,400, the safe-haven commodity remains the biggest asset in focus for 2026.

Key drivers:

• Central banks are currently buying an average of 60 tonnes of gold per month, compared to 17 tonnes pre-2022.
• Two Fed rate cuts are priced in for 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
• Trump tariff policies, Middle East tensions, and fiscal sustainability concerns are keeping safe-haven demand elevated.
• Gold's share of total financial assets hit 2.8% in Q3 2025, with room to grow as retail FOMO kicks in.

What to watch

• Jerome Powell is set to be replaced as Fed chair in May 2026. Actual policy direction post-replacement may differ from current market expectations for cuts.
• If geopolitical hedges into safe havens remain or if there is an unwinding like post- 2024 US election.
• The potential weaponisation of dollar asset holdings by European nations as a response to US tariffs.

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2. Silver

Silver is the metal that has benefited the most from the 2025 AI boom, with its surge to US$112 all-time-highs to kick off 2026 (70% above fundamental value as per Bank of America signal), demonstrating its volatile potential.

Key drivers

• Industrial demand from AI infrastructure, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors and data centres currently has no viable substitute for silver's conductivity.
• Six consecutive years of supply deficit, with above-ground stocks depleting and recycling bottlenecks limiting secondary supply.
• Policy optics may matter. The US decision to add silver to its list of “critical minerals” has been cited as a potential factor in volatility, including around trade policy risk.
• Retail participation can amplify price moves, particularly when the demand for gold becomes “too expensive”.

What to watch

• If solar panel demand continues its trajectory, or if 2025 was the peak.
• Whether the recycling supply responds to record prices by increasing silver refining and material processing capacity.
• How exchange inventory and lease rates move as potential signals of physical tightness.

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3. Copper

Copper's 2026 story hinges on continued data centre demand, renewable energy infrastructure growth, and China's struggling property market.

Key drivers

• Data centre copper consumption is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from 2025.
• Worker strikes in Chile and Grasberg restart delays are keeping the Copper market structurally tight.
• The US tariff decision on refined copper imports is expected in mid-2026 (15%+ currently anticipated), creating potential stockpiling and trade flow distortions.
• Goldman Sachs has forecast that power grid infrastructure and EV buildout could add "another United States" worth of copper demand by 2030.
• Current Chinese property weakness is creating demand uncertainty, potentially offsetting infrastructure spending.

What to watch

• Whether Grasberg ramps production smoothly or faces further setbacks.
• Chinese property market stimulus effectiveness.
• Actual tariff implementation timing and magnitude.
• Yangshan premium movements signalling real physical demand versus financial positioning.

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4. Aluminium

Trading near three-year highs of US$3,200, aluminium faces continued tightness into 2026 as China's capacity ceiling forces global markets to adjust.

Key drivers

• China's 45 million tonne capacity cap was reached in 2025. For the first time in decades, Chinese output cannot expand, potentially ending 80% of global supply growth.
• As copper prices increase, Reuters has reported that some manufacturers have been substituting aluminium for copper in certain applications as relative prices shift.

What to watch

• South32 has said Mozal Aluminium is expected to be placed on care and maintenance around 15 March 2026, thus removing Mozambique's 560,000 tonne significant supply.
• If Indonesian and Chinese offshore capacity additions can compensate for Chinese domestic ceiling.
• Century Aluminium's 50,000 tonne Mount Holly restart in Q2 could provide a signal for the broader industry as the smelter is expected to reach full production by 30 June 2026.

5. Platinum

Platinum's breakout above US$2,800 follows three consecutive years of supply deficit and increased adoption of hydrogen fuel cells (for which it is a vital component).

Key drivers

• The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has forecast a significant supply deficit of 850,000 ounces in 2026 which could drain inventories, with limited new production coming online.
• WPIC forecasts 875,000 to 900,000 oz uptake by 2030 for heavy-duty trucks, buses, and green hydrogen electrolysers.
• Palladium-to-platinum substitution in catalytic converters is increasing in EV production.

What to watch

• Supply response from producers. Platreef and Bakubung are adding 150,000 oz, but production discipline could limit a broader ramp-up.
• US tariffs on Russian palladium could create spillover demand for platinum in EV production.
• The pace of hydrogen infrastructure investment and heavy-duty vehicle adoption rates in Europe, China, and US.
• Chinese jewellery demand could come into play. Just a 1% substitution from gold could widen the platinum deficit by 10% of the global supply.

‍You can trade Gold, Silver, and other Commodity CFDs, including energies and agricultural products, on GO Markets.

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在过去两周里，白银市场经历了极端剧烈的震荡与高位博弈：价格一度快速攀升至历史极高水平，随后出现剧烈回落，反映出市场在避险情绪、基本面需求与投机力量之间的动态平衡。这一阶段白银的表现不仅成为贵金属市场的焦点，也凸显出当前全球经济风险偏好和宏观预期的复杂变化。

一、价格表现：高峰与震荡并存

自年初以来，白银价格持续上涨，并在近期迎来非常显著的高点突破。本周一，白银价格在近段时间内冲高至历史高位——一度触及每盎司约 117.75 美元 的峰值水平，盘中涨幅一度接近 14%,创下自2008年以来的最大单日涨幅。上涨之后的价格快速回落，最终在震荡中收复1%涨幅收盘。反映出，在连续多日由动量推动、追涨情绪主导的行情之后，这轮上涨已经变得相对脆弱。

同一时间段内，黄金虽也创新高，但白银的价格波动要更加剧烈，表现出更高的弹性和交易热度。国内市场对应的沪银主连合约也在本轮行情中刷新了历史高点，盘中涨幅显著。

二、推动白银上涨的核心因素

白银价格在这两周内的大幅波动并非偶然，它是多重基本面与市场情绪因素共同作用的结果：

1. 全球供需高度紧张

从供给端看，全球白银市场已连续多年处于供给短缺状态。截至最近数据（约 2025 年末），白银产量约 3.18 万吨，而实际需求达到了约 3.55 万吨，现实中每年存在接近 8 亿盎司的累计缺口。供应端无法快速响应需求增长，因为全球大部分白银是伴生矿产品，其生产扩张依赖于铜、铅锌矿的开发节奏，且新矿开发周期长达 5–10 年。供给结构的僵化，成为白银价格持续上行的重要基本面支撑。

此外，即使在高价区间，工业消费仍保持强劲，特别是在新能源、光伏、电子设备等领域对白银的需求持续增长，这进一步加剧了供应紧张的局面。

2. 避险需求与宏观不确定性

宏观经济的多重不确定性是近期贵金属走强的重要逻辑背景之一。通胀预期、货币政策路径的不确定性、全球地缘风险等因素，使白银不仅具备避险功能，还因其对市场情绪敏感而呈现高波动性。今日，美国对韩国商品提高关税至25%，以及市场对美联储政策和主席人选的猜测，加剧了投资者的不确定性。此外，财政支出和货币政策压力也促使部分资金从债券和货币资产转向贵金属，形成所谓的贬值交易。

3. 美元与利率预期影响

美元走势与美国货币政策预期对贵金属价格影响显著。随着市场对美联储未来可能降息的预期升温，以及美元在多重政策不确定性下有所承压，白银作为非收益资产吸引了更多资产配置需求。这种“美元弱、避险升”组合在贵金属市场整体放大了资金对价格上行的共振。

三、短期震荡与风险提示

此次白银行情的一个明显特征是急涨之后伴随急跌与回撤，反映出市场对“过热状态”的风险意识正在增强。

分析人士认为，这种极端振幅表明白银部分上涨动力已接近短期极限，且高企价格开始对工业使用产生“挤压”效应，迫使光伏等行业加速寻求替代材料，从而削弱部分实需支撑。这种供需博弈下的潜在阻力，是当前白银短期回落不可忽视的风险因素。

虽然工业需求是白银的基本面支撑之一，但高价会对需求端形成反压。例如光伏等行业可能加快替代材料布局，减少对白银的边际需求，这在极端高价位很可能削弱部分基本面支撑，从而影响中长期供需平衡。

四、未来走势展望

从长期供需基本面来看，白银的结构性紧张、工业需求增长与避险功能并存，为其价格中枢提供了较强支撑。只要这些基本因素未发生根本性逆转，白银在未来阶段仍有潜力维持高位波动。

不过，从技术面和市场情绪出发，高位的急速上涨属于典型的“爆发型行情”，短线极易出现回调或震荡加剧，特别是在遇到宏观数据或全球金融风险事件时，价格波动可能进一步放大。

因此，在关注白银中长期上涨逻辑的同时，需要警惕短期波动风险，避免在高位盲目追涨，并重点关注供需基本面数据、美元走势和全球避险情绪的变化。

总结

基本面供需紧张、工业需求增长和宏观不确定性构成了白银中长期支撑，价格快速透支上涨动能，叠加高位获利了结与需求端压力，短期波动风险显著，需要投资者保持谨慎。

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