Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged over 1% against the USD, one of its biggest session gains of 2023 and seeing USDCHF hit lows not seen since SNB intervention back in 2015.
Price action seemed to be more CHF strength rather the USD weakness as CHF handily outperformed all other G10 currencies. USDCHF RSI reading also hit the most oversold level since the safe haven flows of the pandemic panic of March 2020. XAUUSD - Gold Safe haven flows also gave Gold a tailwind with XAUUSD breaching the major resistance at 2070 USD an ounce, which had held the Gold price in check for the last week.
A weaker USD, falling yields also bolstering the precious metal. 2070 remains the key level for now, if the bulls can establish this level as support, another run higher to test the all-time highs could be on the cards. USOUSD – Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil started Wednesday’s session with a rally after further attacks on tankers in the Red Sea sparked supply concerns. The rally fizzled later in the session demand fears after the weekly API report showed an unexpected build in crude inventories.
USOUSD forming a “death cross” (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200 day SMA) for the first time since September 2022, last time We saw this a significant decline in Oil Prices took place.
Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. This saw rate cut odds in March push above the 80% mark with yields and the Dollar tumbling as a result.
The Dollar Index (DXY) pushing below last weeks trough to new 5-month lows, also losing the 102 handle in the process. AUD outperformed after the weaker than expected US GDP reading and an upbeat market risk sentiment. AUDUSD poking its head above the psychological 0.68 for the first time since July before finding some resistance at the big figure.
The major resistance at 0.6900 the next big test to the upside if this rally continues. Gold pushed higher on the weaker USD and falling yields, XAUUSD again testing the resistance at 2047. The last break out of this level took gold to all-time highs a couple of weeks ago, making it a key level to watch for gold traders.
Ahead today the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index will be the main risk event for FX traders.
US food company, General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS), reported its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the US open on Wednesday. Revenue reached $5.139 billion for the quarter, falling short of analyst estimate of $5.354 billion. Revenue was down by 2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.25 per share vs. $1.156 per share expected. EPS was up by 14% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: June 20, 1928 Headquarters: Golden Valley, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 32,500 (2022) Industry: Food processing Key people: Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary "While we saw a slower-than-expected volume recovery in the second quarter amid a continued challenging consumer landscape, we generated bottom-line growth thanks primarily to strong HMM cost savings," CEO of General Mills, Jeffrey Harmening, highlighted the challenges the company faced in the quarter. "We’re adapting our plans to the evolving consumer environment and staying focused on driving long-term growth, with a priority on winning through innovation, brand building, and in-store execution.
At the same time, we’re stepping up our HMM performance and further eliminating disruption-related costs in the supply chain. For the full year, we’ve revised our topline outlook to account for a slower volume recovery, narrowed our profit and EPS expectations within our original guidance ranges, and maintained our outlook for strong free cash flow conversion," Harmening added. Stock reaction Shares of General Mills were down by around 3% on Wednesday after the latest earnings report.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.25% 3 months: -1.76% Year-to-date: -22.83% 1 year: -24.19% General Mills stock price targets Piper Sandler: $76 Evercore ISI: $72 HSBC: $74 Royal Bank of Canada: $76 Morgan Stanley: $58 Mizuho: $70 Goldman Sachs: $61 JP Morgan: $61 TD Cowen: $70 Deutsche Bank: $77 Wells Fargo: $70 General Mills Inc. is the 487th largest company in the world with a market cap of $37.64 billion. You can trade General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: General Mills Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The World's second largest courier company, FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX), released its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. The US company fell short of estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. Revenue reached $22.2 billion vs. $22.356 billion expected.
Revenue was down by 2.6% vs. the same period a year prior. EPS reported at $3.99 per share (up by 25.47% year-over-year) vs. $4.194 per share estimate. Company overview Founded: May 5, 1971 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 520,000 (2023) Industry: E-commerce, services, transportation Key people: Frederick W.
Smith (Executive Chairman), Raj Subramaniam (President and CEO) CEO commentary 'FedEx has delivered an unprecedented two consecutive quarters of operating income growth and margin expansion even with lower revenue, clear evidence of the progress we are making on our transformation as we navigate an uncertain demand environment,'' Raj Subramaniam, CEO of FedEx, said in a press release. 'We are moving with speed to make our network more efficient while delivering outstanding service to our customers through the peak season with the fastest Ground network in the industry. I am confident in our strategy as we make our global network more flexible, efficient, and intelligent,' Subramaniam concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.68% at the end of trading on Tuesday at $280 a share.
The stock price plummeted by around 7% in the after-hours trading as results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +9.43% 3 months: +12% Year-to-date: +61.66% 1 year: +70.37% FedEx stock price targets TD Cowen: $293 Stifel Nicolaus: $285 Susquehanna: $315 HSBC: $330 Loop Capital: $275 BMO Capital Markets: $290 Deutsche Bank: $295 Citigroup: $300 Wells Fargo: $280 Bank of America: $330 UBS Group: $323 Morgan Stanley: $205 FedEx Corporation is the 231st largest company in the world with a market cap of $70.39 billion. You can trade FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: FedEx Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was offered in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) printing a low of 102.060 ahead of the last major economic release for the year in Fridays Core PCE reading. Hawkish leaning comments from the Feds Bostic that he only sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than the Fed median of three and well under the market pricing of six, failing to lend much support to the greenback. JPY was the obvious FX underperformer, seeing USDJPY hit a high of 144.95, just failing to breach the psychological 145.00 level before retracing somewhat.
JPY took a hit on the BoJ meeting where the central bank stood pat and unanimously left its rates and YCC unchanged. There was some pricing in on this pair of a hawkish surprise from the BoJ which didn’t materialise. AUD and NZD were the G10 outperformers.
AUDUSD benefitting from improved risk sentiment and the December RBA Minutes which suggested the Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or keep rates steady, NZDUSD caught a tailwind from upbeat NZ trade data. CAD strengthened on the hotter-than-expected inflation data, where the year on year figure came in at 3.4% a beat of the expected 3.3%. CAD also receiving support from a rally in crude oil prices on the back of Red Sea tensions affecting oil transportation.
USDCAD dropping to 5-month lows and seeing the daily RSI move into extreme oversold territory.
The US Dollar has continued its year end decline after the holiday break in thin volume. Traders still holding onto the view of a dovish Fed come 2024 seeing yields also drop creating a headwind for the Greenback. AUDUSD The Aussie pushed has pushed higher this week, taking advantage of a weak USD and a risk on environment.
AUDUSD breaking the resistance and key psychological level of 0.68 in Tuesday’s session and entering the Resistance zone from 0.6800 -0.6900 where rallies have faltered previously in 2023. The AU 10 and US 10 yield differential has also found some resistance at its current level and could temper further gains in this pair, AUDUSD looking like it has got a little ahead of itself at these levels. XAUUSD Gold also continued to grind higher in thin holiday volume, a weak USD and falling yields making the non-yielding asset look more attractive to speculators.
XAUUSD trading at the key level of 2070 USD an ounce that gold traders should be keeping a close eye on. The last time XAUUSD broke this level was December 4 when a surge in price saw gold hit all-time highs. Currently XAUUSD has found resistance here and attempts to breach have been rejected, a push through could see another run to re-test those highs, a hold of the resistance and a leg lower in XAUUSD looks likely.