US-China Trade Talks Spark Optimism | GO Markets Week Ahead

Last week brought some relief as markets found support following the retreat from record highs... with the recent crypto crash being a notable exception.

‍

Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K

Crypto markets are under significant pressure after Bitcoin crashed through the psychological $100,000 level. Currently trading around $94,650, Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point since May. The $94,000 level appears critical; if it fails, we could see Bitcoin slip back into the $80,000 range and potentially enter bear market territory.

Fed Minutes and Rate Cut Signals

The Federal Reserve minutes are due this week, and they could provide crucial insight into the timing of rate cuts in 2026. Markets have already priced in a likely December cut, but the January 2026 cut that was initially expected may be in jeopardy. Pay attention to the Fed speakers scheduled throughout the week—their comments could help clarify the path forward on monetary policy.

Strong Earnings Season Winds Down

We're in the final stretch of what's been an exceptionally strong earnings season, with 82% of companies beating EPS expectations and 76% surpassing revenue forecasts. This week features some heavyweight reports, most notably Nvidia reporting Wednesday after the bell. Major retailers Target and Walmart will cap things off, giving us a clear picture of consumer health heading into the holidays.

Market Insights

Watch Mike Smith's analysis for the week ahead in markets

Key Economic Events

‍Stay up to date with the upcoming economic events for the week.

The longest government shutdown in US history has finally ended after 42 long days.

After a month and a half of political theatre, seven Democrats and one independent broke ranks and voted with Republicans to pass a stopgap measure. The Senate went 60-40, the House followed 222-209, and Trump signed it hours later.

The legislation includes three-year appropriations for the Agriculture Department, FDA, military construction, veterans affairs, and congressional operations, along with restoration of pay for federal workers and reversal of Trump administration layoffs through January.

However, the most contentious issue, healthcare subsidies, has been kicked down the road to a December Senate vote.

COVID-era ACA subsidies expire at year-end. When they do, premiums for the average subsidised household will more than double from $888 to $1,904 per year, with an estimated 3.8 million people losing coverage entirely.

If the December vote fails, which is likely considering how far apart the two parties are on the topic, we could see a new shutdown begin in January.

What Happens Next?

This Week:

• Federal employees return to work.
• Paychecks start flowing again.
• SNAP benefits get restored for 42 million people, though heating assistance won't come back for weeks.
• National parks reopen.
• Airports start to go back to normal.

December:

• Senate votes on healthcare subsidies. It will probably fail.
• Premium notices continue to be sent showing 2026 costs doubling.

January 30:

• Government funding expires.
• We do this whole thing over, except now the healthcare subsidies have already expired.
• If Republicans and Democrats remain divided on budget priorities, another shutdown will likely begin.

By the Numbers:

Over the past 42 days, approximately 750,000 federal workers have been furloughed. Another two million worked without pay. Over 42 million had their food assistance delayed. And the FAA cut flights by 10% because air traffic controllers stopped showing up to work.

Further concern is the "data blackout" that has hampered Federal Reserve decision-making. Key economic indicators, including jobs reports, were suspended, leaving the Fed blind during an active rate-cutting cycle.

Meanwhile, separate analyses from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed layoffs surged 183% in October, which would make it the worst October for jobs since 2003.

The Bottom Line

Today’s deal ended the shutdown, but it didn’t actually solve anything. The deal essentially kicks the can down the road to January while leaving the healthcare crisis unresolved.

With both parties divided on healthcare and spending priorities, and Trump lacking a comprehensive plan to address rising premiums and high deductibles, a resolution in the December vote seems unlikely.

If no compromise is accepted by the time Government funding expires on January 30, another shutdown is almost inevitable.

Impact of Australian Jobs Reports and U.S. Shutdown End on the Aussie

The decision to scale (increase the traded lot size of a specific EA) should be based on statistical evidence that indicates your EA has the potential to perform to certain expectations. 

Equal weight should be given to the decision to scale, as to the initial decision to deploy an EA. This guide provides an indicative approach on how to put together and action your scaling plan.

Before You Start Your Scaling Plan

Important: this should be an individual plan that is consistent with your personal trading objectives, your EA portfolio, and your personal financial situation (including account size).

We are going to use a starting lot of 0.10 per trade in the examples in this document —you want to adjust this based on your own risk tolerance.

Whatever your chosen lot size start point, EA scaling should be a pre-planned incremental approach, scaling stepwise based on performance metrics you are seeing in your live trading account.

You should also have assessed the current margin usage of your EA portfolio exposure to ensure that any scaling and related increased margin requirements are appropriate to the size of your account. 

Suggested Scaling Baseline Requirements

Scaling should only be performed when your EA is performing to what you deem to be a good standard. To make this judgment, you need to set some minimum performance standards.

The past performance of your EA is not a guarantee of future performance. If market conditions change, you must remain vigilant and continue to measure performance on an ongoing basis for every live EA you have.

You need to define the key metrics that are important to you. 

Two important metrics to include are:

• The number of trades: to provide some evidence of reliability 
• The period of time: to have had exposure to at least some variation in market conditions

Example of how you may lay your metrics out in a table:

Some may choose to include proximity to original expectations of other metrics, such as minimum win rate, average profit in winning trades, and average loss in those that go against you. 

It should only be after your metrics are met that lot scaling begins on any specific EA.

Lot Size Scaling Ladder

Below is an example of a performance-based scaling plan assuming a 0.10-lot baseline.

Again, this is indicative. It provides a framework with clear review dates and an approach that illustrates incremental scaling. You must still define a regime that is right for your specific trading objectives. 

Risk Guardrails

It is vital to keep an eye on your general account risks and have limits in place that guide your EA use.

Such limits must be constant across all stages of scaling and referenced beyond the risk of a single EA, but to your portfolio as a whole.:

Per-Trade Risk (Nominal)

Trade risk for any one trade should be seen in the context of account size and the dollar risk based on the risk parameters you have set for your EA. 

Specify a maximum percentage of the account balance — a $200 loss is more impactful on a $1000 account compared to a $10,000 account. 

Stick to what is right for you in terms of your tolerable risk level based on your trading objectives and financial situation. A common suggestion is a 1-2% risk of account equity per trade. 

Total Open Exposure

Specifying maximum exposure in the number of EAs open at any time and those that use the same asset class is important for overall portfolio risk management. 

There are tools you can use to monitor exposure risk generally, as well as those that can be used to indicate single asset exposure.

Margin Usage

It is always desirable that your set exit approaches and parameter levels are what your exits are based on. It should not be because your margin usage has meant you have moved into a margin call situation. 

Specify a minimum level to adhere to and make sure that your account is sufficiently funded. If volatility or slippage rises (e.g., news events or illiquid sessions), reduce lot size temporarily.

Scaling Psychology – Managing “Big Numbers”

As lot sizes rise, your emotions may respond accordingly when you see the larger dollar amounts that your EA is generating. 

If you are used to seeing an average profit of $100 and average loss of $50, and suddenly you are seeing significantly bigger numbers, it creates an emotional challenge where you may be tempted to do a “discretionary override”. 

Although there are situations, such as major market events, overexposure in a specific asset, or VPS or account system problems, where such intervention may be considered, generally this would distort the actual performance evaluation of your EA and is not encouraged (unless it is pre-planned).

The table below presents some of the generally accepted challenges and offers suggestions on how to manage them. 

Your Plan Into Action…

In practical terms, your scaling plan should have two components:

1. The key parameters for action on your chosen key metrics
2. Specified periodic review times to make your next scaling decision

This is not a race. Having systems in place facilitates creating the opportunity that scaling brings while still mitigating the risks.