Os mercados globais entram na nova semana com vários catalisadores potencialmente de alto impacto. As eleições gerais do Japão acontecem em primeiro lugar no domingo, seguidas pelos dados da inflação e do mercado de trabalho dos EUA, que continuam moldando as expectativas das taxas de juros.

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• Eleição no Japão: A continuidade das políticas e a estabilidade política são geralmente vistas como favoráveis aos mercados regionais.
• Inflação e mercado de trabalho dos EUA: O índice de preços ao consumidor (IPC) e o relatório da situação do emprego (folhas de pagamento não agrícolas, NFP) são os pontos focais macro imediatos da semana.
• Medidor de risco de Bitcoin: O Bitcoin está de volta perto dos níveis vistos pela última vez no final de 2024 e permanece bem abaixo do pico de outubro de 2025.
• Relógio de rotação setorial: Recentemente, a tecnologia teve um desempenho inferior, enquanto os segmentos defensivos e de valor se estabilizaram, com a temporada de lucros continuando a influenciar os fluxos.

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Eleição no Japão

As eleições gerais no Japão são vistas principalmente pela lente da certeza política. Os mercados normalmente favorecem um resultado claro e a continuidade nas configurações fiscais e monetárias.

Resultados inesperados ou incertezas da coalizão podem aumentar a volatilidade de curto prazo no JPY e nos índices regionais no início da semana.

Datas importantes

• Eleições gerais (Japão): Domingo, 8 de fevereiro
• Resultados do comércio asiático na segunda-feira

Impacto no mercado

• O JPY pode ser sensível a resultados, incertezas ou possíveis mudanças na direção da política.
• As ações da Ásia podem apresentar volatilidade no início da semana até que os resultados estejam claros

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Inflação e mercado de trabalho dos EUA

A inflação continua sendo a contribuição mais direta para as expectativas de taxas de juros, enquanto o relatório mensal do NFP fornece uma leitura ampla sobre as condições de emprego e as pressões salariais.

Os rendimentos do Tesouro e o USD geralmente reagem rapidamente a esses lançamentos, com efeitos indiretos em ações, ouro e ativos de crescimento.

Os preços atuais indicam que os mercados atribuem menos de 30% de probabilidade de um corte até a reunião de abril, com probabilidades de aumento da reunião de junho acima de 50%.

Datas importantes

• Situação de emprego: Quarta-feira, 11 de fevereiro, 08:30 (ET) | Quinta-feira, 12 de fevereiro, 00:30 (AEDT)
• CPI (janeiro de 2026): sexta-feira, 13 de fevereiro, 08:30 (ET) Sábado, 14 de fevereiro, 00:30 (AEDT)

Impacto no mercado

• Os rendimentos geralmente se movem primeiro, seguidos pelo USD e depois pelos ativos de risco
• As expectativas quanto ao tempo de redução da taxa podem se ajustar rapidamente
• As ações de crescimento e tecnologia permanecem mais sensíveis às taxas

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Bitcoin

O Bitcoin caiu para os níveis vistos pela última vez antes das eleições dos EUA em novembro de 2024 e está quase 50% abaixo do pico de outubro de 2025.

Embora não seja um indicador macro tradicional, os mercados de criptomoedas podem ser vistos como uma leitura em tempo real sobre a tolerância ao risco do investidor. A fraqueza sustentada pode coincidir com um posicionamento mais cauteloso em ativos com beta mais alto, incluindo ações de tecnologia.

Impacto no mercado

• O sentimento criptográfico mais fraco pode coincidir com a redução dos fluxos especulativos
• O apetite pelo risco pode permanecer mais seletivo
  
  

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Rotação setorial

Na semana passada, o Dow Jones Industrial Average superou o desempenho, sendo negociado um pouco abaixo do neutro, enquanto o Nasdaq-100 caiu mais de 4%, refletindo a sensibilidade da tecnologia de grande capitalização a rendimentos mais firmes.

O que a mudança pode refletir

• Pressão impulsionada pela taxa sobre as ações de crescimento
• Obtenção de lucros após forte desempenho tecnológico
• Temporada de resultados favorecendo uma participação mais ampla do setor
• Um tom geralmente mais cauteloso em ativos com beta mais alto

Os mercados normalmente buscam um desempenho superior sustentado em várias semanas nas áreas financeira, industrial ou defensiva antes de caracterizar a mudança como rotação estrutural.

Impacto no mercado

• A tecnologia continua mais sensível aos movimentos de rendimento
• Os setores defensivo e de valor podem receber apoio relativo
• A orientação de ganhos continua influenciando a liderança

February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led. 

Quick facts

• USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
• EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
• JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
• AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.

US dollar (USD)

Key events

• Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
• Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)

What to watch

The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning. 

Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.

Key chart: US dollar index (DXY) weekly chart

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Euro (EUR)

Key events

• ECB policy decision: 12:15 am, 6 February (AEDT)
• ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 6 February (AEDT)
• ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)

What to watch

EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.

Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.

Key chart: EUR/USD weekly chart

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Japanese yen (JPY)

Key events

• Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
• National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan) 

What to watch

JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.

Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.

Key chart: USD/JPY daily chart

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Australian dollar (AUD)

Key events

• RBA minutes: 11:30 am, 17 February (AEDT)
• Wage Price Index: 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
• Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)

What to watch

AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.

Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.

Key chart: EUR/AUD daily chart

Three data levers dominate the US markets in February: growth, labour and inflation. Beyond those, policy communication, trade headlines and geopolitics can still matter, even when they are not tied to a scheduled release date.

Growth: business activity and trade

Early to mid-month indicators provide a read on whether US momentum is stabilising or softening into Q1.

Key dates

• Advance monthly retail sales: 10 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 11 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation: 18 Feb, 9:15 am (ET) / 19 Feb, 1:15 am (AEDT) 
• International Trade in Goods and Services: 19 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 20 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will be watching new orders and output trends in PMIs to gauge underlying demand momentum. Export and import data will offer insights into global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Traders will also assess whether manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory or show signs of contraction.

Market sensitivities

• Stronger growth can be associated with higher yields and a firmer USD, though inflation and policy expectations often dominate the rate response.
• Softer activity can be associated with lower yields and improved risk appetite, depending on inflation, positioning, and broader risk conditions.

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Payrolls data

Labour conditions remain a direct input into rate expectations. The monthly NFP report, alongside the weekly jobless claims released every Thursday, is typically watched for signs of cooling or renewed tightness.

Key dates

• Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, wages): 6 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 7 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will focus on headline payrolls to assess the pace of job creation, the unemployment rate for signals of labour market slack, and average hourly earnings as a gauge of wage pressures. A gradual cooling can support the idea that wage pressures are easing. Persistent tightness may push out expectations for policy easing.

Market sensitivities

Payroll surprises frequently move Treasury yields and the USD quickly, with knock-on effects for equities and commodities.

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Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE

Inflation releases remain a key input into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

Key dates

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 12 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index): 20 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 21 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 27 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 28 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Producer prices can act as a pipeline signal. CPI and the PCE price index can help confirm whether inflation pressures are broadening or fading at the consumer level.

How rates and the USD can react

• Cooling inflation can support lower yields and a softer USD, though market reactions can vary.
• Sticky inflation can keep upward pressure on yields and financial conditions, especially if it shifts policy expectations.

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Other influencing factors

Policy and communication

There is no scheduled February FOMC meeting, but speeches and other Fed communication, as well as the minutes cycle from prior meetings, can still influence expectations around the policy path.  Without a decision event, markets often react to shifts in tone, or renewed emphasis on inflation persistence and labour conditions.

Trade and geopolitics

Trade flows and energy markets can remain secondary, and the risk profile is typically headline-driven rather than linked to scheduled releases.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative has published fact sheets and policy updates (including on US-India trade engagement) that may occasionally influence sector and supply-chain sentiment at the margin, depending on the substance and market focus at the time. 

Separately, volatility tied to Middle East developments and any impact on energy pricing can filter into inflation expectations and bond yields. Weekly petroleum market data from the US Energy Information Administration is one input that markets often monitor for near-term signals.