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New U.S. Sanctions on Russia as Putin Conducts Nuclear Tests
The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, after planned peace talks between Trump and Putin collapsed on Wednesday.
Oil prices spiked 3% after the announcement, with Brent crude hitting $64 per barrel.
The targeted companies are among the world's largest energy exporters, collectively shipping about three million barrels of oil daily and accounting for nearly half of Russian production.
The sanctions build on recent European measures, as the UK targeted the same companies last week and the EU approved its own sanctions package on Wednesday.
In a show of force coinciding with the new sanctions, Putin supervised strategic nuclear exercises on Wednesday involving intercontinental ballistic missile launches from land and submarine platforms.
While the Kremlin emphasised these were routine drills, the highly coincidental timing is notable.
For markets, the key question now is whether secondary sanctions will follow, and if Trump’s enforcement remains strict. Traders will watch closely for any TACO signals that see Trump ease pressure in an attempt to restart negotiations.
Historic PM Wasting No Time on Celebrations
Sanae Takaichi made history this week as Japan's first female Prime Minister. The 64-year-old conservative leader, dubbed the "Iron Lady,” is already rolling out an aggressive policy agenda that could reshape Japan's economic and geopolitical position.
Her first major move is an economic stimulus package expected to exceed US $92 billion. The package includes abolishing the provisional gasoline tax and raising the tax-free income threshold from ¥1.03 million ($6,800), moves designed to put more money in consumers' pockets and battle inflation.
Her next move will come when Trump arrives in Tokyo next week, as the Japanese government is finalising a purchase package including Ford F-150 pickup trucks, US soybeans, and liquefied natural gas as sweeteners for trade talks.
Takaichi has campaigned on being a champion for expansionary fiscal policy, monetary easing, and heavy government investment in strategic sectors, including AI, semiconductors, biotechnology, and defence.
Critical Workers to Miss First Paycheck Due to Shutdown
The U.S. government shutdown is on the verge of creating a crisis for aviation safety, with 60,000 workers set to miss their first full paycheck this week.
These essential workers, who earn an average of $40,000 annually, already saw shortened paychecks last week. By Thursday, many will receive pay stubs showing zero compensation for the coming period, forcing impossible choices between basic necessities and reporting to work.
During the last extended shutdown, TSA sick-call rates tripled by Day 31, causing major delays at checkpoints and reduced air traffic in major hubs like New York — disruptions which are directly attributed to pressuring the end of the previous shutdown.
The National Air Traffic Controllers Association warns that similar pressures are building, with many workers soon to be facing a decision between attending their shift or putting food on the table.
US manufacturer of building materials Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) announced its latest financial results on Friday. Vulcan Materials reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates. Revenue reached $1.834 billion for Q4 2023 (up by 5.88% year-over-year) vs. $1.837 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) topped expectations at $1.46 vs. $1.398 per share expected. EPS was up by 35.18% year-over-year. Full year revenue was up by 6.38% from 2022 at $7.782 billion.
EPS reached $7 per share, up from $5.11 the year before. Company overview Founded: 1909 Headquarters: Birmingham, Alabama United States Number of employees: 12,000 (2023) Industry: Construction materials Key people: Tom Hill (Chief Executive Officer) Suzanne H. Wood (Chief Financial Officer) Denson N.
Franklin III (General Counsel) CEO commentary "2023 was an exceptional year for Vulcan Materials. We generated over $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, a 24 percent increase over the prior year, expanded EBITDA margin by 360 basis points and generated $1.5 billion of operating cash flow that can be deployed to grow our business. Our industry leading aggregates cash gross profit per ton increased each quarter on a year-over-year basis and was $9.46 per ton for the full year, a 21 percent improvement over the prior year.
Six consecutive years of unit profitability improvement during a continuously shifting macro backdrop demonstrates the durability of our uniquely positioned aggregates-led business. We carry momentum into 2024, and our focus is the same - compounding unit margins through all parts of the cycle and creating value for our shareholders through improving returns on capital," Tom Hill, CEO of Vulcan Materials said in a statement to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was up by over 5% at the end of the trading session on Friday at $255.15 a share – a new all-time closing price.
Stock performance 5 day: +6.31% 1 month: +12.86% 3 months: +20.16% Year-to-date: +12.40% 1 year: +37.44% Vulcan Materials stock price targets Raymond James: $240 Royal Bank of Canada: $236 Morgan Stanley: $208 Stifle Nicolaus: $279 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 DA Davidson: $260 Barclays: $250 Citigroup: $260 Stephens: $260 Loop Capital: $260 Truist Financial: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $265 The Goldman Sachs Group: $212 Vulcan Materials Company is the 555 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $33.90 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Vulcan Materials Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The most anticipated US earnings announcement is coming up with NVDA due to report fiscal Quarter ending Jan 2024 earnings after the Wednesday US market close. NVDA has seen a meteoric rise, quintupling in 2023 and up more than 40% so far in 2024, being the number one stock riding AI mania, making this earnings report one that all investors will be paying attention to. Options markets are pricing in a +/- 11% move to this earnings report, which is exceptional considering the 1.8T size of the company, with Call/Put pricing showing a bias to the upside, which is not surprising with NVDA beating analyst estimates seven of the last eight earnings reports.
There has also been a number of upward revisions in the last four weeks which can be taken as a bullish sign. Source:Nasdaq.com Saying that, NVDA did have the biggest fall of the year on Tuesday, dropping over 4% as some longs booked profits ahead of earnings, so a beat on these figures is certainly not unanimous. This selling action selling could also be an ominous sign of the reaction after earnings if results don’t meet the lofty expectations of Wall St.
Either way traders will likely be rushing to enter or exit the stock depending on the result, so a big move in either direction is probable. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesdays US market close.
US home improvement chain Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $34.786 billion for the quarter (down by 2.9% year-over-year) vs. $34.643 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.82 (down by 14.54% year-over-year) vs. $2.768 per share expected.
Full-year 2023 revenue reached $152.7 billion, down by 3% vs. 2022. EPS was down by 9.5% year-over-year at $15.11 per share. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) CEO commentary "After three years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a letter to investors. "During fiscal 2023, we focused on several initiatives to strengthen the business while also staying true to our strategic investments of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities, and building new stores.
We remain excited about the future for home improvement and our ability to grow share in our large and fragmented market, which we estimate to be over $950 billion. I also want to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities," Decker concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of the trading session on Tuesday at $363.50 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.34% 1 month: +1.08% 3 months: +16.99% Year-to-date: +4.04% 1 year: +13.40% Home Depot stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $366 Telsey Advisory Group: $335 Robert W. Baird: $370 The Goldman Sachs Group: $393 Wells Fargo & Company: $400 TD Cowen: $415 Piper Sandler: $400 Wedbush: $380 Barclays: $372 Truist Financial: $387 Morgan Stanley: $335 Guggenheim: $340 Royal Bank of Canada: $299 HSBC: $365 Home Depot Inc. is the 25 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $358.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Home Depot Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but also pointing to the concerning level of inflation despite recent progress. This was seen as a hawkish leaning hold, seeing AUDUSD rally modestly on the day, today’s minutes will fill in the gaps as to the discussion between RBA members leading to the official decision.
AUDUSD Technical analysis AUDUSD has bounced in the last week after setting new 2024 lows at 0.6442 on the 13 th of February. The steady advance retaking the 0.65 handle and breaching the February resistance level of 0.6525, which has so far held as support. AUDUSD has hit some technical resistance levels here, firstly the 100 Day SMA, which has so far capped further price increase, and further to the upside is the 200 Day SMA and 50% Fib level at around 0.6580 which could also provide technical resistance to any further Aussie upside.
Technical support to the downside could be found firstly at the 61.8 fib level at 0.6513, failing that the 2024 lows at 0.6450. For Aussie traders, along with the RBA minutes today, the main data point will be Wednesdays Wage Price Index, a gauge the RBA has referenced in regards to their rate decisions and could be a big Aussie mover if outside of expected range.
USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed gauge the timing of the first rate cut. USDJPY was mostly flat for the second straight session, volume was low with Japan away for a holiday.
USDJPY hit a low of 148.94 but failed to stay beneath 149.00 for long as a rise in US yields dragged the pair higher and held it above the key 149 level. AUDUSD rallied through the 0.6525 resistance level, this will be a key level to watch for Aussie traders today to see if it can re-establish itself as support. NZD lagged despite hawkish RBNZ commentary where RBNZ Governor Orr said inflation is still too high, NZDUSD finding resistance at the February highs and dropping to a low of 0.6120.
This also saw AUDNZD have its biggest up day of 2024 hitting a high of 1.0650 and retracing all and then some of Fridays steep drop. Attention turns to the New Zealand inflation expectations and RBA's Kohler both on Tuesday.
USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to target weighing somewhat on yields and the USD.
EURUSD rallied modestly, holding the key 1.07 level where it found support on Tuesday. A soft USD and beats in Q4 employment and industrial production data support the pair. Euro watchers have ECB president Lagarde testifying at the EU parliament later in the session to look forward to.
JPY saw small gains against the USD with lower UST yields across the curve benefitting the Japanese currency. Though with USDJPY still well above the “intervention” level of 150 some jawboning from Japanese officials materialised. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki saying he is closely watching FX market moves with a strong sense of urgency and currency diplomat Kanda noting he is watching FX moves and will take appropriate actions if needed on FX.
GBP was the G10 underperformer with GBPUSD setting one week lows after cooler than expected UK CPI data. The headline Y/Y maintaining a 4.0% pace, beneath the 4.2% forecast. UK GDP is ahead for Sterling traders where a contraction of -0.2% is expected.