Notícias de mercado & insights

As expected, there was no change in the U.S. interest rate, with the decision to keep rates at 5.5% having been previously telegraphed and already priced in. As is always the case, markets dissected the statement and the subsequent press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to look for clues about what future Fed direction may or may not be. The language didn't change much, with the usual word tweaking.

There was a suggestion that the pace of U.S. economic growth remains "strong," rather than "solid," which was the terminology used last time. Additionally, there was a reiteration that inflation is too high, and that it would be a mistake to assume another pause in December's rate decision is a "gimme." Despite this slightly hawkish tilt, there is a generally increasing market belief that there will be no further rate hikes this year. The CME FedWatch, based on the 30-day fed funds futures, now suggests a 17.1% chance of a December rate hike, compared to a 28.8% likelihood before the FOMC meeting.

Of course, there is significant data still to come this week, with Non-farm payrolls on Friday. A "hot" number may once again raise expectations of a Fed response at their next meeting. However, markets rallied to start a new month after three successive months of losses, with growth stocks unsurprisingly outperforming.

The Nasdaq saw gains of 1.64%, and there were 3:1 advancers vs. decliners across the whole market, as bond yields and the USD pulled back again from recent highs. With earnings continuing to generally outperform expectations, and many suggesting stock prices are now at value, the stars may be aligning for a pre-Christmas rally. However, it remains difficult to call with optimism.

Big data and big earnings this week and next, U.S. government funding battles likely to resurface mid-month, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are all still very much on the market's mind. The general risks remain high, but green shoots of opportunity may be on the horizon after the recent turmoil.

CPI is a globally recognised economic indicator used by many countries to measure inflation and assess changes in the cost of living for their citizens. It evaluates the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, such as food, clothing, rent, healthcare, entertainment, and transportation. Compiled by national statistical agencies or organisations in various countries, the CPI reflects the purchasing power of a country's currency.

By monitoring CPI trends, policymakers and economists gain insights into the overall economic health, make informed decisions about monetary policy, and understand how price changes impact the general population's standard of living. In an international context, different countries might have their own versions of CPI tailored to their specific economic circumstances and consumer behaviours. However, the fundamental concept remains consistent: CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers, making it a crucial tool for understanding inflationary pressures and making economic comparisons across nations.

Key takeaways CPI functions as a universal tool used by countries around the world to measure inflation and evaluate changes in the cost of living. Here are the key points in this global perspective: Global Measurement of Consumer Prices: The CPI serves as a global standard for measuring changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households. Each country typically has its own CPI, tailored to its specific consumption patterns, demographics, and economic structure.

Universal Indicator of Inflation: Internationally, the CPI is universally recognised as a crucial indicator of inflation. Central banks, policymakers, economists, and businesses in various countries closely monitor CPI trends. It helps them understand the impact of price changes on their economies and make informed decisions about monetary policies and economic strategies.

Diverse Basket of Goods and Services: The CPI in different countries includes a diverse basket of goods and services that are essential to the local population. This basket is regularly updated to reflect contemporary consumption habits, ensuring that the CPI accurately represents the changing cost of living for people. Data Collection and Analysis: Countries globally conduct extensive data collection efforts to calculate their CPI.

This involves collecting price data from various sources, including retail outlets, service providers, and housing markets. The data collected provides valuable insights into the purchasing power of the local currency and helps assess the economic well-being of citizens. Policy Implications: CPI data influences policy decisions not only at the national level but also in international trade and finance.

It affects decisions related to interest rates, social welfare programs, and economic reforms. Moreover, it plays a significant role in international economic comparisons, enabling policymakers to assess their country's economic performance relative to others. Understanding the CPI For example, the US has the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conduct extensive data collection efforts to create the CPI data, gathering approximately 80,000 price points every month from 23,000 retail and service outlets.

Despite both CPI variants having the term "urban" in their names, the more comprehensive and widely referenced version covers 93% of the U.S. population. Within the CPI, the housing category, which constitutes a significant one-third of the index, is determined through a survey of rental prices for 50,000 housing units. This data is then utilised to calculate the increase in rental prices as well as the equivalent costs for homeowners.

In particular, the owners' equivalent category factors in the rent equivalent for owner-occupied housing, ensuring an accurate representation of housing expenses in consumer spending. It includes user fees and sales or excise taxes but excludes income taxes and the prices of investments like stocks, bonds, or life insurance policies from CPI calculations. The calculation of CPI indexes incorporates several important considerations.

Firstly, it accounts for substitution effects, recognising that consumers tend to redirect their spending when certain products or categories become relatively more expensive. Additionally, the calculation adjusts price data to accommodate changes in product quality and features, ensuring a more accurate representation of actual consumer spending. Moreover, the weighting of product and service categories in the CPI indexes is based on recent consumer spending patterns, derived from a separate survey.

This weighting reflects the significance of different items in the average consumer's budget, providing a realistic portrayal of how expenditure is distributed across various goods and services. By integrating these factors, CPI indexes offer a nuanced and precise measurement of changes in the cost of living for consumers. CPI Categories The monthly CPI released by the BLS provides a comprehensive overview of economic changes.

This report highlights alterations from the previous month for the overall CPI-U and its significant subcategories, including the unadjusted year-over-year changes. The BLS detailed tables further break down price shifts for a wide array of goods and services grouped under eight overarching spending categories. These detailed tables allow for precise analysis, estimating price variations for items ranging from everyday groceries like tomatoes and salad dressing to services such as auto repairs and sporting event tickets.

For each subcategory, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted price changes are provided, offering a nuanced understanding of consumer spending patterns. Beyond the national CPI indexes, the BLS also publishes CPI data for US regions, sub-regions, and major metropolitan areas. Notably, metropolitan data can exhibit more significant fluctuations, primarily serving the purpose of identifying localised price changes based on unique regional conditions.

What Makes CPI Significant for Currency Traders? The CPI indicator, often termed "headline inflation" in markets, holds immense significance in the realm of currency trading. This is primarily because inflation has a profound impact on the decisions taken by central banks concerning their monetary policies.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, typically have a mandate to maintain inflation at a specific level, often around 2.0% annually (source: the Fed, BOJ). To achieve these targets, policymakers adjust interest rates, employing them as a mechanism to attain the desired inflation levels. Additionally, they might implement other strategies such as bond-purchasing agreements or expanding the money supply.

When inflation levels deviate from these targets, it serves as an important signal for central banks to consider altering interest rates. If inflation exceeds the 2.0% target, central banks like the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates to curb excessive spending. This, in turn, strengthens the dollar against other currencies since a higher interest rate makes the U.S. currency more attractive.

Furthermore, CPI serves as a forward-looking indicator of an economy's performance. In instances where inflation rises sharply, as witnessed in countries like Brazil and Venezuela in recent years, consumers tend to save less as their purchasing power diminishes. This dynamic reflects the broader economic landscape and significantly influences market behaviours and currency values.

When a central bank raises interest rates to counter inflation, it usually leads to a reduction in borrowing. Both individuals, seeking loans for purchases, and businesses, aiming to expand their operations, tend to cut back on borrowing due to the higher cost. This decrease in borrowing activity can have significant implications for a nation's overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

How CPI Data Affects the Dollar on the Forex Market? The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: to achieve full employment and maintain a stable, healthy rate of inflation during economic expansion. Consequently, forex traders closely watch both unemployment and inflation data, as these figures influence the central bank's decisions on adjusting interest rates—decisions that significantly affect currency strength or weakness.

Forex traders regard the CPI and Core CPI figures as pivotal indicators for gauging an economy's performance. Among these, Core CPI provides a more insightful perspective by excluding volatile energy and food prices. In the United States, the Labor Department releases these figures, excluding energy and food costs from the measurement.

If the Core CPI surpasses market expectations, the dollar typically strengthens against other currencies. Conversely, if these readings fall short of consensus forecasts, the currency weakens relative to other pairs. Importantly, the impact extends beyond the monthly report.

Like all government data, CPI figures are subject to revisions by economists. Such revisions can spark significant volatility in a currency's value on the global market. This continuous assessment of economic indicators shapes traders' strategies, highlighting the vital role of CPI data in the forex market.

Conclusion CPI is a pivotal measure reflecting pricing dynamics within an economy and serves as a reliable indicator of inflation. Forex traders keenly observe the CPI because it often prompts adjustments in monetary policies by central banks. These policy changes can either bolster or diminish a currency's value relative to its counterparts in the markets.

Additionally, the strength or weakness of a currency profoundly influences the earnings of companies operating in diverse global markets, making CPI a key metric watched closely by both traders and businesses.

Retail sales play a fundamental role in shaping the economic landscape of any country. These sales represent the culmination of consumer demand for finished products, serving as a barometer for economic health and a predictor of market trends. In the United States, this vital metric is meticulously tracked and reported monthly by the U.S.

Census Bureau, making it a cornerstone of economic analysis. Diverse Scope of Retail Sales Data Retail sales data encompasses a wide array of transactions, including both durable and non-durable goods, within a specific timeframe. These transactions emanate from 13 distinct types of retailers, ranging from food services to retail stores.

This broad spectrum of goods and services reflects the intricate tapestry of consumer spending habits, providing invaluable insights into market behaviour. Unravelling the Significance Retail sales offer more than just a glimpse into consumer preferences; they provide a macroeconomic perspective on consumer demand for finished products. By compiling data on durable and non-durable goods, the retail sales report becomes a powerful tool for analysts and investors.

These figures serve as a pulse check for the economy, guiding decisions by shedding light on economic health and identifying potential inflationary pressures. The U.S. Census Bureau's meticulous gathering of data from various establishments ensures the accuracy of retail sales metrics.

This accuracy is imperative due to the pivotal role consumer spending plays in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending, also known as Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), constitutes a staggering two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, understanding retail sales is not just a matter of economic analysis; it is essential for gauging the overall economic well-being of the nation.

Decoding Retail Sales: Insight into Economic Vitality Retail sales do not exist in isolation; they are intertwined with broader economic trends, offering a window into the vitality of the economy. These figures, reported by food service and retail stores, are meticulously compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Utilising sophisticated data sampling techniques, these measurements are extrapolated to model nationwide patterns, providing a comprehensive view of consumer behaviour. The categories of retail sales are diverse, spanning in-store, catalogue, and out-of-store sales of both durable and non-durable goods. This diversity highlights the multifaceted nature of consumer preferences and purchasing behaviours.

From clothing and pharmaceuticals to electronics and furniture, retail sales encompass a myriad of products, each reflecting distinct market dynamics. Influence of Inflation: Navigating Economic Challenges Inflation, a ubiquitous economic phenomenon, significantly impacts retail sales. As prices of goods and services rise, consumers are compelled to recalibrate their spending habits.

Higher inflation often leads to a reduction in overall expenditures, with consumers prioritising necessities and purchases resistant to inflationary pressures. This adjustment underscores the intricate dance between economic forces and consumer behaviour, shaping the trajectory of retail sales figures. Special Considerations in Interpreting Retail Sales Data Interpreting retail sales data requires a nuanced understanding of various factors.

The U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey, released mid-month, provides detailed insights into total sales, accompanied by percentage changes from previous reports. To account for seasonal fluctuations, the report includes year-over-year changes, offering a comprehensive view of consumer-based retail trends.

Economists and analysts face the challenge of interpreting retail sales figures accurately. One such challenge lies in the inclusion of auto and gas sales, both of which are volatile categories. Many experts prefer analysing retail sales data excluding these segments, considering their propensity to fluctuate unpredictably.

Gas station sales, influenced by oil and gas price volatility, are particularly prone to sharp shifts, making them a less reliable indicator of consumer behaviour. Seasonality and Retail Sales: The Impact of Festive Seasons Seasonality significantly shapes retail sales patterns, with the holiday season, notably Christmas, witnessing a surge in consumer spending. This festive period accounts for a substantial portion of annual sales, especially for retailers specialising in hobbies, toys, games, and department stores.

Recognizing these seasonal fluctuations is essential for a nuanced interpretation of retail sales data. It underscores the cyclical nature of consumer behaviour and its intersection with cultural and economic factors. Calculating Retail Sales Data: Precision in Reporting The U.S.

Department of Commerce's Census Bureau plays a pivotal role in compiling and disseminating retail sales figures. Through its Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Bureau meticulously collects data, summarising the previous month's sales activity. This precision in data collection ensures the accuracy and reliability of retail sales metrics, providing a foundation for informed economic analysis.

The Bottom Line: Retail Sales as Economic Barometer In essence, retail sales represent far more than mere transactions; they encapsulate the collective choices and behaviours of consumers, offering a nuanced portrayal of economic health. As a leading macroeconomic indicator, retail sales serve as a compass, guiding investors, policymakers, and analysts through the complex terrain of economic trends. The surge or decline in retail sales figures echoes the heartbeat of the economy.

Increasing retail sales signify a robust and expanding economy, eliciting positive movements in equity markets. Shareholders of retail companies welcome these high sales figures, indicating enhanced earnings and market stability. However, the story is not devoid of complexities.

Bondholders, sensitive to economic nuances, exhibit mixed sentiments. While a flourishing economy benefits all, lower retail sales and economic contraction can lead to reduced inflation. This prompts investors to turn to bonds, potentially increasing bond prices as they seek stability in the face of economic uncertainty.

In conclusion, understanding retail sales is akin to deciphering an intricate economic code. It requires a keen eye for detail, an understanding of market dynamics, and an awareness of the broader economic landscape. Retail sales are not just numbers on a report; they encapsulate the aspirations, choices, and challenges of a nation's consumers.

By delving into the nuances of retail sales data, analysts and investors gain invaluable insights, enabling them to navigate the ever-changing currents of the global economy. As a barometer of economic health, retail sales continue to be a beacon, guiding stakeholders toward informed decisions and a deeper understanding of the intricate web of economic interactions.

Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) announced its latest financial results after ther market close in the US on Thursday. Marc Zuckerburg’s company crushed analyst estimates for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how the company and the stock has performed.

The results Meta reported revenue of $34.146 billion for Q3 (up by 23% year-over-year) vs. $33.579 billion expected. EPS reported at $4.39 per share (up by 168% year-over-year) vs. $3.643 per share estimate. The company expects revenue of around $36.5 to $40 billion in Q4.

CEO commentary "We had a good quarter for our community and business," Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms said in a statement to investors. "I'm proud of the work our teams have done to advance AI and mixed reality with the launch of Quest 3, Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, and our AI studio," Zuckerberg added. The stock The stock was down by 3.73% at $288.35 a shon Thursday before the latest earnings were announced. However, the stock has experienced a tremendous year so far and is up by over 130% year-to-date.

Stock performance 1 month: -3.95% 3 months: -11.41% Year-to-date: +139.61% 1 year: +190.68% Mate Platforms stock price targets Truist Securities: $405 RCB Capital: $400 Piper Sandler: $355 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $380 Barclays: $400 Rosenblatt: $411 Keybanc: $380 JP Morgan: $400 Meta Platforms is the 7th largest company in the world with a market cap of $741.01 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs, including Meta Platforms.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Meta Platforms Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

NFP is a significant economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive overview of the employment situation within the United States, making it one of the most closely watched economic reports in the financial world.

Understanding NFP The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report serves as a gauge in the realm of economic indicators, offering insights into the employment landscape of the United States. Specifically, the NFP report quantifies the aggregate number of compensated American workers, deliberately excluding certain categories such as agricultural workers, government employees, private household staff, and those employed within nonprofit organisations. This deliberate omission of such sectors is what lends the term "nonfarm" to this influential economic metric.

Crucially, the data encapsulated within the NFP report provides a holistic overview of the employment scenario, encompassing both full-time and part-time workers. By incorporating this comprehensive view of the workforce, the report becomes a valuable tool for analysts, policymakers, and investors, enabling them to discern nuanced trends and patterns within the labour market. The intricate details of full-time and part-time employment shed light on the multifaceted nature of the U.S. workforce, offering a more nuanced understanding of economic dynamics.

In essence, the NFP report stands as a testament to the intricate tapestry of the American job market. Its exclusion criteria, shaping it into a "nonfarm" indicator, serves the vital purpose of capturing a specific segment of the working population, allowing for focused analysis and informed decision-making in the realm of economics and finance. Why NFP is Important: Economic Health: NFP numbers offer valuable insights into the economic health of the United States.

A higher number of jobs added usually indicates a growing economy, while a lower number can suggest economic slowdown or recession. Interest Rates: Central banks, especially the Federal Reserve in the U.S., closely monitor NFP data. A robust job market can lead to inflationary pressures, influencing the central bank's decision on interest rates.

Higher NFP numbers might prompt the Fed to consider raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Market Impact: Financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and currencies, often experience significant volatility around the time of the NFP release. Positive NFP figures can boost investor confidence, leading to a rise in stock prices.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected NFP numbers can lead to market declines. Consumer Spending: Job creation directly impacts consumer spending. When employment is high, consumers are more likely to spend, which, in turn, stimulates economic growth.

Consequently, NFP data can be a significant factor for businesses planning their strategies based on consumer behaviour. Factors Influencing NFP: Economic Policies: Government fiscal policies, such as tax reforms and infrastructure spending, can influence job creation. Additionally, monetary policies set by the central bank affect interest rates, which in turn impact employment levels.

Business Confidence: When businesses are confident about the future economic outlook, they are more likely to hire new employees. Positive consumer sentiment also encourages spending, prompting businesses to expand and hire more workers. Global Economic Factors: The global economic climate, including trade relations and geopolitical events, can impact job growth.

Uncertainties in international markets can lead to cautious hiring by U.S. companies. Trading Strategies Around NFP: Volatility Management: Due to the heightened volatility during NFP releases, traders often use risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect their investments from rapid market movements. Analysing Previous Trends: Traders analyse previous NFP reports and market reactions to anticipate how the current release might affect various assets.

Historical data can provide valuable insights into market behaviour. Diversification: Traders might diversify their portfolios to spread the risk during periods of high volatility. Diversification can involve trading different assets or using various trading strategies.

Stay Updated: Staying informed about other economic indicators and global events is essential. Factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and geopolitical developments can influence market reactions to NFP data. In conclusion, NFP is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable insights into the U.S. job market and overall economic health.

Its impact on financial markets and trading strategies underscores the significance of this report for investors and traders worldwide. Understanding NFP data and its implications is essential for making informed investment decisions and navigating the complexities of the global economy. How can I trade during NFP?

GO Markets provides a comprehensive range of trading options and resources for investors. When traders are preparing for the release of economic indicators such as NFP, having access to a reliable trading platform is essential. GO offers a diverse selection of trading instruments, including Forex, commodities, indices, and more, allowing traders to capitalise on market movements efficiently.

The platform's educational resources and market analysis tools empower traders to make informed decisions and navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence. In the context of NFP trading strategies, traders can leverage the features provided by GO Markets to manage their trades effectively. Utilising risk management tools, such as setting stop-loss and take-profit orders, can help traders mitigate potential losses and secure their profits during periods of high market volatility, such as NFP releases.

Does GO Markets allow trading during NFP? GO Markets permits trading during NFP announcements. Traders are free to engage in trading activities regardless of news releases or market volatility.

However, GO Markets advises traders to exercise caution and implement a robust risk management strategy, especially during significant events such as the NFP.

Alpha refers to the excess return generated by an investment or trading strategy over and above its expected return, considering its level of risk. It provides insight into whether a trader or investment manager has added value to their portfolio through skillful decision-making or trading expertise. In essence, alpha measures how much an investment has outperformed or underperformed its benchmark or the broader market.

To put it more simply, if a trader's or investment portfolio's alpha is positive, it indicates that the returns exceeded what could be attributed to market movements alone. Conversely, a negative alpha suggests that the performance lags behind the expected returns based on market behavior. Cracking the Alpha Code: Calculation and Interpretation Calculating alpha involves a two-step process.

First, one must determine the expected return of an investment or trading strategy, taking into account its risk level. This is typically achieved by using a risk-adjusted benchmark, such as a market index or a similar asset class. The formula for calculating expected return is as follows: Expected Return = Risk-Free Rate + Beta × (Market Return - Risk-Free Rate) Here, the risk-free rate represents the return on a virtually risk-free investment, such as a government bond.

Beta, on the other hand, measures the sensitivity of the investment's returns to market movements. A beta of 1 indicates that the investment moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 signifies higher volatility, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility. Once the expected return is established, the next step is to calculate the alpha using the following formula: Alpha = Actual Return - Expected Return If the calculated alpha is positive, it implies that the investment or trading strategy has outperformed its expected return based on its risk profile.

Conversely, a negative alpha indicates underperformance. Interpreting alpha requires careful consideration. An alpha that is significantly positive could indicate that the trader or investment manager possesses a unique skill set that enables them to consistently generate higher returns than the market.

This might suggest a high level of expertise in stock selection, market timing, or risk management. However, it's important to note that sustained positive alpha over time is challenging and can be a sign of luck or short-term market anomalies. On the other hand, a negative alpha might indicate poor decision-making, improper risk management, or an investment strategy that consistently lags behind the market.

However, similar to positive alpha, a single negative alpha measurement should not be taken as conclusive evidence of poor trading skill. Short-term market fluctuations can also play a significant role in altering alpha values. Risks and Considerations While alpha is a valuable metric, it's important to acknowledge its limitations.

One key consideration is that alpha calculations can be influenced by short-term market anomalies, macroeconomic factors, and other unforeseen events that are beyond the trader's control. Thus, relying solely on alpha as a measure of trading success can be misleading. Furthermore, alpha calculations can vary depending on the choice of benchmark and the time period considered.

Different benchmarks can lead to different alpha values, potentially altering the perception of a trader's skill. Additionally, alpha calculations are retrospective and do not guarantee future performance. A trader who has generated positive alpha in the past may not necessarily continue to do so in the future.

In Conclusion Alpha provides a window into the proficiency of traders and investment managers. It represents the excess return achieved over and above what could be expected based on market behavior and risk. Positive alpha suggests skillful decision-making and the potential to consistently outperform the market, while negative alpha may indicate areas that require improvement in trading strategies.