ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

Brexit Breakthrough After months of discussions and nearly a year and a half after the Brexit referendum took place, there has been a breakthrough in the Brexit talks. Both sides have now agreed on major key issues which was vital before moving onto the trade talks, which are estimated to begin in February of next year. Overview of the deal The Irish border One of the key issues which stopped Theresa May agreeing to a deal earlier was the Irish border.

No one wants a hard border between the Irish neighbours, and it looks like this quirk of Ireland can be preserved. The deal means there would be no new regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and rest of the United Kingdom, and therefore Northern Irish businesses will be able to continue to have access to the UK market, which was a key concern for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The divorce bill Since the negotiations began a few months ago, there were different amounts mentioned starting from £20 billion and going up to £100 billion.

When the British people voted to leave the EU, they did not expect to pay such large amounts to not be part of bloc but instead were looking to spend the promised £350 million per week on NHS which was promoted by the Leave campaign. Now Britain is likely to pay between £35 and £39 billion to the EU under the Brexit deal. Citizen's rights Another major promise from Theresa May was ensuring EU citizens rights would be guaranteed after UK formally leaves the EU and the same rules to be applied to the UK citizens living in the EU.

The deal also includes a point which will allow family members who do not live in the UK to join them in the future. European Court of Justice (ECJ) This deal will potentially anger the Brexiteers as it means that ECJ will continue to have a role overseeing rights of EU nationals in the UK for eight years after the withdrawal date. Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council has said that UK must respect EU law during the transition period which is expected to last for around two years after the official leaving date of March 2019.

Financial markets We did not see too much movement in the financial markets after the news of a breakthrough deal came out. The Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Friday by around -0.81% to 1.33 level. The Euro strengthened against the Pound and was up by around 0.75% at the end of the close at 0.87 level.

Different story for FTSE100, it was up by around 1.10% at 7,399 at the end of the European close on Friday. GBPUSD: Source: GO Markets MT4 The Euro strengthened against the Pound when the news came out, which has caused more uncertainty around the matter. The Euro is up by around 21% against the Pound since January and we could see more gains for the Euro as the UK economy keeps outperforming in the coming months.

EURGBP Source: GO Markets MT4 As the Pound fell, we saw the FTSE100 jump higher as a weak Pound boosts the earnings for London listed companies with international profits. The Index is up 3% since the start of the year. FTSE100 Source: GO Markets MT4

Upcoming News » Day One EU Economic Summit EUR » 10:30pm Final GDP USD » 12:00am CB Consumer Confidence USD Brexit aftermath rolls on. On the back of David Cameron's resignation more MPs have stepped down in the wake of Friday’s shock result. Over three million people have signed a petition for a second referendum to be held.

While I understand the despair the chances of that happening are slim to nil. Scotland is very upset by the Brexit vote has talked about the possibility of a new independence referendum or vetoing the Brexit result to remain in the EU. US markets last night continued selling off with the SPX500, US30, AUS200, GBPUSD making new post-Brexit lows.

While the DAX and UK100 saw heavy selling they failed to make new lows, Gold also put on $8 overnight but failed to hold. These are good signs for me. We have been seeing an Asain session recovery which could continue into tonight's session, I believe there’s a fair chance this will happen.

EU economic summit has started today. The main topic will be Britain's decision to the leave the EU. I hope to see some strong comments made to reinforce the European Union as an entity.

We did here talk on Friday of other member states being open to their open referendums but this has died down a touch. I hope to see solidarity come out of the EU summit this week. I feel it’s very important at this time of uncertainty.

XAUUSD – I am looking for a recovery in risk. I have a trade idea on gold. Last night buyers took it but failed to hold while US markets closed at new lows.

Failed high is the pattern, low break the trigger. Looking for 1300 area if selling continues. USOUSD – Support found at 46.70 with a failed low gave me the pattern.

Off the 4H we had a high break for the trigger. Daily Oil looks to have found a short-term base. If buying continues looking for a move up to test $48.30.

GER30 – We have an inside bar on the daily that has failed at an attempt to move lower. I’m looking for buying to continue this evening. Posible buy idea if we have a test and break of yesterday's last 4H candle.

If buyers continue on, I’m looking for a test of 9443 to the upside. Trading thought for the day. “ A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains ” Good Trading. All times are in AEST.

Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks.

Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies. Joseph Jeffriess, GO Markets Market Strategist

By ​Deepta Bolaky “ Buy the Dips ” and “ Sell the Rallies ” are widely followed strategies by new or experienced traders. Buy-the-dip strategy is becoming increasingly popular based on the theory of market fluctuations. It takes into consideration that the market will eventually rally up at pre-dip prices at some point. “Nowadays, traders take advantage of market weakness and embrace it” An example of the “buy the dip” approach is the bull stock market where we have seen signs of rebound after a period of deep weakness.

Back in February, “buy the dip” was mentioned across various media channels and traders were desperate to find the bottom that would be the most profitable. This strategy will effectively work if traders can identity the transition from a bearish trend to a bullish one. US500 (S&P 500) Source: GO Markets MT4 Today, we will focus on the Bullish Hammer which is a pattern used to identity a bullish technical reversal.

The bullish hammer takes the form of a hammer – it consists of a “ long lower tail ” and a “ body ” with little or no upper wick. Generally, traders tend to see if the lower tail is twice or more than the body itself. The below screenshot gives you an indication of a “Hammer”.

When you see a “hammer” being formed after a downtrend, this is a sign of a potential reversal as the trading action suggests that the trend was heading downwards but manage to find meaningful buyers at a lower price driving the price higher on the close of the candle. As per the above picture, both the green and red hammer have bullish implications but the green indicates a slightly more bullish presence. Similarly, a shorter “lower tail” is interpreted as less bullish compared to a longer “lower tail”.

Put simply, the longer lower tail indicates a stronger presence of buyers. The inverted hammer is also an indication of a potential reversal. An inverted candle is found at the end of a downtrend and has similar criteria to the Hammer.

However, the inverted hammer indicates that buyers are stepping in, but sellers are still present. Main criteria of a Hammer or the Inverted Hammer: The tail should at least be twice the length on the body. The color of the body is not very important but it helps in identifying the strength of the bullish presence.

There should be no tail or a very little one above the body. Note: It is important to differentiate between a “Hammer” and a “Hanging Man”. Because the shape of both candle sticks is similar, traders might misinterpret the patterns.

The Hammer lies at the end of a downtrend where as the Hanging Man lies at the end of an uptrend hinting at a reversal of an upward trend. The hammer is a good indication of a potential reversal and can help traders in establishing the needed bottom to adopt the “Buy-the-dip” approach. However, alongside with the hammer, traders use other indications of price support to recognize the strength of a reversal.

It should be highlighted that this strategy is not a “guaranteed profitable strategy” and should be used wisely. Go Markets Pty Ltd

Forex is one of the heaviest news driven markets in the world. Major news announcements play such a critical role to the intraday volatility, which in turn create trading opportunities. Most of the time, particularly for the active traders, market volatility can present more trading opportunities.

So it stands to reason, all Forex traders should be very mindful of upcoming news announcements. Even if you are a position trader or someone who likes to hold your FX positions for the medium to long term, knowing what news is coming up is essential. Tracking the markets across the globe Using MT4 Genesis, the session map shows you the key trading times for the main 'fixes' around the world including Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York.

Trading around the major fixes is important for those who trade on an intraday timeframe. For example, it is important to note that the Australian session is first and it is often the quietest, unless of course there is a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rates announcements or even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can be enough to move the markets on a regular basis. Other than that, the Australian fix rarely moves the markets.

It is not until you get the crossover to the London session that volatility picks up. You can then expect more volatility when the London session meets the New York session. The session map shows a clear red line for your current time so you can see when volatility may pick up.

The best feature of the session map is the news markers. At the bottom of the session map window, you will see grey, orange and red markers, highlighting upcoming news announcements. Grey is low impact, orange is medium impact and red is high impact.

By hovering your mouse over the news markers (or left clicking on one), you can see: » what the announcement is; » the time is will be released; and » its expected impact. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28uS8T7Ay9I[/embed] How many times have you had an open position rally significantly, to then have to scour the internet for a news item related to your currency pair? If you've been trading for any length of time, then probably too often. By applying the session map, you can see clearly what news is driving the spike.

Another great aspect of the session map is the ability to see your current open profit and loss at a glance. In addition, you have a host of other account details with one click, such as your: » balance; » equity; » floating P&L » margin in use; and » the amount of margin you have free. Applying session map is as easy as dragging it from the Expert Advisors folder straight on to your chart.

It’s that easy. Stay on top of the markets by using Connect and Analyse tools It’s been said that trading could be a lonely job, particularly if you’re trading on your own. While market action and price movements can definitely keep you on your toes, some people find it a bit isolating at some stage.

However, you can look at it as being on top of the world (or the markets, at least) as you need to keep tab of what’s happening across the globe. This is particularly true when trading the forex (FX) market as currencies tend to move pretty fast compared to equities. Using the Connect and Analyse tools in MT4 Genesis, you can be a step ahead already.

These tools will give you current and relevant information – breaking news, statistics and analysis – that you can use for your trading. These tools are readily available from within your GO Markets’ MT4 platform. Once the MT4 Genesis file has been run, the full suite of tools will be available from the Expert Advisors tab.

Simply left click and drag each tool on to the chart of your choice. Let’s have a look at the features of the Connect function. As a trader, you need to be in tune with market developments as well as current events and news that may impact the markets.

The Connect window will give you price action and technical updates on the relevant currency pairs. This is also where you can find news updates not only about the markets, but also general news. Monitoring the news is vital for your trading as big events can have a major impact on the markets.

For example, decisions and announcements from the US Federal Reserve are always being watched and monitored by traders because it could affect currency movements. Major decisions from the US Fed are notorious for having effects on other currencies. Using this feature, you can select a number of news providers that suit your information needs.

The Connect feature also has a calendar that informs you of all relevant upcoming announcements that may affect the FX market. The calendar highlights: » High-impact events » Medium-impact events » Low-impact events [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQoKmSFFDsE[/embed] Some of the high-impact events that usually generate big moves in the market include: » US non-farm payroll announcement » US Federal Reserve announcements » Retail sales data » Manufacturing data Another way to connect with the market and to make sure you’re on top of current developments is via the GO Markets website. Using this feature, you can do several things such as: » Open a new account » Deposit funds » Change the leverage on your account » Access current promotions or simply » Speak with one of the Go Markets’ team members.

Analyse tool The Analyse tool is also helpful if you want to do weekly, monthly or yearly review of your trading performance. As a trader you would like to know how you’re performing and you would like to keep track of some vital statistics including: » Account Balance » Profit » Profitability » Percentage return » Monthly return Sentiment indicator The sentiment indicator is another key feature that can be useful for your trading. Using this tool, you can identify the currency pairs you want to trade (or in your watch list) and see the bias towards long and short positions on those pairs.

This will give you a good appreciation of the overall market sentiment on a particular currency pair. For example, the falls in iron ore and oil prices are widely expected to have negative impact on commodity currencies including the Australian dollar. However, despite the negative sentiment, the Aussie dollar is still being supported at a healthy level. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4TVU8PnIaA[/embed] Using the sentiment indicator, you can see how other traders are ‘feeling’ about the Aussie dollar as it would be reflected on the number or percentage of long positions versus short positions.

Take advantage of the Connect and Analyse tools as they could make a big difference in your trading performance. The opinions and information conveyed in the GO Markets newsletter are the views of the author and are not designed to constitute advice. Trading Forex and CFD's is high risk.

Rom Revita | Sales Manager Rom is the Sales Manager at Go Markets Pty Ltd and manages the day-to-day running of the Sales, Support and Marketing teams. He has been with the company since 2013 and is also one of our two appointed Responsible Managers, helping to ensure that the company follows all AFSL regulatory requirements. Rom has extensive financial markets experience and originally comes from an equities & derivatives trading background.

He has served on the Trading & Sales Desk with several large broking houses, and now specialises in Margin FX and CFDs. Connect with Rom: [email protected]

As Brexit concerns continue to weigh heavy on Pound Sterling crosses, there's not much to discuss from a technical perspective. Evidence of an overall bearishness sentiment dominates the charts with a few corrective moves thrown in for good measure. However, sifting through the layers of Sterling sameness, I uncovered something interesting relating to the GBPJPY, which might provide some trading opportunities longer-term.

First, taking a look at a daily chart above, notice we are hovering around the same price region as we were in August last year. Could this mean the pair is due for a change in direction? Perhaps.

What I find more intriguing is that for the past five years, August has been predominantly bearish for the GBPJPY pair when compared to other months. This seasonality chart from Bloomberg shows this more clearly. So how does this relate to longer-term trading opportunities?

If we are to believe that August is typically a bearish month, then we would be naturally inclined to seek short trades, and according to the point and figure chart below, I think I may have found one. Keep in mind that the seasonality data also suggests recoveries into December so we would need to trade with care. The bearish resistance line suggests we are currently in a downtrend with an increase in supply triggering a bearish trade signal as the price broke through the triple bottom support at 144.50.

At present, I am watching two downside targets should the fall in price exacerbate. These levels are located at 140.00 and 136.00 respectively. Alternatively, any upside move will need to re-test the 144.50 area which should act as resistance and also a rally above 146.00 to consider revising the overall trend.

Finally, if we study the short-term price action above on the hourly chart, it would seem the 100 Day Moving Average line in blue is helping to cap any bullish activity. The only time it has successfully managed to punch above the 100 MA this month has been to test the weekly pivot lines in black. If you are interested in other GBP analysis, I recently posted an article on GBPAUD here which I believe is another potential long-term opportunity.

For both these ideas, much will depend on Brexit certainty and how global trade talks progress in the coming weeks. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Tradingview, Bloomberg

By ​Deepta Bolaky The intermarket relationships between commodities, currency, equity and bond markets are key in understanding the way the markets interact and move. Some markets will move with each other while others will move against each other. There are different types of bonds but for the purpose of this article, we will use the U.S Treasuries, which are considered one of the safest bonds.

The importance of the bond market The bond market is very powerful and helps traders gauge the performance of an economy. Given that bonds provide a fixed interest payment, investors tend to buy them when the economy or stock market is declining. Alternatively, during times where the economy is strong or when the stock market is doing well, investors are less likely to purchase bonds as they know they can find alternative investment options for higher returns.

Before we discuss how bonds can help investors in predicting the economy, it is important to understand the relationship between bond prices and yields together with its relationship with interest rates. This part can be confusing for new investors. Put simply, when the economy is expanding, investors move away from safe havens and take more risks.

In that case, demand for bonds decreases which cause a drop in bond prices. Given that the interest payments remain fixed, when the bond value decreases, bond yields will inevitably increase. This is so because yields are the interest payments divided by the par value.

Therefore, bond prices and yields are inversely correlated. Yields vs short and long-term interest rates Yields and interest rates are quite similar with the main difference being that each term are used to refer to different financial instruments. The yield curve is used to depict the relationship between the short-term and long-term interest rates.

Normally, investors demand more compensation to lock their money for longer periods. Therefore, we expect the yield curve to be an upward slopping curve. A steep curve indicates that investors are expecting future inflation and strong economic growth in the future.

Now, why is the US yield spread between the 2yr and 10yr treasury alarming? Such thin yield spread is a matter of concern because the US short and long-term yields are currently at its narrowest level in more than a decade. This means that a hawkish Fed have managed to increase short-term yields but not the longer-term yields.

In other words, demand for short-term bonds have decreased but not for longer term ones. There is a risk of an inverted yield curve if this situation persists. The flattening yield curve might therefore indicate that investors are not convinced that the economic growth will be maintained in the long run despite that the fact that the Fed’s are confident about the strength of its economy.

When an economy gains momentum, the curve normally tends to steepen not flatten. Even the Fed policy markets remained perplexed on why the curve is shrinking. Will another rate hike in September put a pressure on the yields spread?

Are the Federal Reserve going to halt its increase in interest rate if the spread tightens further? Does an inverted curve mean the same thing as it once did? As the Fed increases interest rates, investors need to eye the yield curve as a sign and remain cautious about the outlook for economic growth.

However, it is worth mentioning that based on previous inversion of yield curves where a recession has followed, a stock market rout did not occur right away. It actually jumped amid the turbulence.