澳元暴跌：2025年初的动荡与未来走向

Bitcoin rebounded 7% to touch $94,000 this week as two of the world's largest asset managers doubled down on their conviction that this cycle could break from crypto's boom-bust past.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein declared tokenisation "the next major evolution in market infrastructure,” comparing its potential to the introduction of electronic messaging systems in the 1970s.

Tokenised real-world assets have exploded from $7 billion to $24 billion in just one year, with certain projections expecting tokenised instruments to comprise 10-24% of portfolios by 2030.

Grayscale's latest research also put forward the case that this cycle will not follow Bitcoin’s predictable four-year pattern. Their analysis shows this cycle has had no parabolic price surge like previous cycles, and capital is flowing through regulated ETPs and corporate treasuries rather than retail speculation.

Grayscale has boldly predicted Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs next year based on this data, with near-term catalysts including a likely Federal Reserve rate cut and advancing crypto legislation.

AI Boom Creating a Memory Chip Supply Crisis

The AI revolution has had an unexpected ripple effect on conventional memory chips (DRAM).

Post-ChatGPT launch in 2022, chipmakers pivoted aggressively toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips — the components that power AI data centres.

Samsung and SK Hynix, who control roughly 70% of the global DRAM market, transitioned large portions of their production away from conventional chips.

This worked in the short term, but data centre operators are now replacing old servers, and PC and smartphone sales have exceeded expectations (all of which require DRAM).

This saw DRAM supplier inventories fall to just two to four weeks in October, down from 13 to 17 weeks in late 2024.

DRAM spot prices nearly tripled in September this year, while in Tokyo's electronics district, popular gaming memory modules have surged from 17,000 yen to over 47,000 yen in recent weeks.

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have all approached Micron with open-ended orders, agreeing to purchase whatever the company can deliver, regardless of price.

Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix shares have rallied 96%, 168%, and 213% YTD, respectively, thanks to the increased DRAM demand.

Ironically, this recent price surge has seen DRAM chip margins approach those of the advanced HBM chips, meaning non-AI memory could now become equally profitable to produce.

Buying Pressure Pushes Copper Through Key Level

全球白银进入“缺货模式”，库存十年新低，价格可能迎来加速行情。

‍

近期白银市场出现了一系列结构性变化，从国内交易所库存下降、出口增加，到月间价差反转、产业需求走强，多项指标均显示现货端正在收紧。同时，金银比持续下探，进入近年来的低位区间。这些因素共同构成了目前白银行情的核心背景。

‍

1. 十年以来的最低库存水平

从公开数据来看，上期所与上金所的白银库存已降至 2015 年以来的低位，大量的白银被运往伦敦，来缓解推高银价带来的市场紧张情况。库存下降的幅度不仅明显，而且具有持续性。这一趋势与两个现实因素相关：

• 年初以来白银出口量保持高位；
• 国内可用于交割的现货逐渐减少。

（白银和黄金库存，资料来源：彭博社）

‍

库存下降直接影响到市场的可交割合约、产业采购与流动性。对于贵金属而言，库存处于历史低位通常意味着现货供应偏紧，后续价格对供需变化的敏感度提升。

虽然低库存本身并不一定等同于价格上涨，但若同时伴随现货溢价与需求扩张，则对价格的影响会更直接。从目前的数据来看，白银正处在这种组合情形中。

‍

2. 期货月间价差持续反映现货偏紧

近期，近月白银价格高于次月合约，这是典型的现货溢价结构。在贵金属中，这类结构的出现通常只有两种原因：现货不足或短期采购需求明显增加。

(资料来源：彭博社)

从上图可以看到，多个合约间呈现“近高远低”的结构。这说明持货方更愿意留在现货端，而非换到远端合约。对于工业需求占比较高的白银，现货价差变化往往比盘面价格更能反映供需状态。

历史上，铜、镍在进入上涨周期前，也普遍经历现货溢价阶段。白银当前的结构与这些阶段具有可比性。

‍

3. 出口、贸易流向与区域供需差异

近期中国白银出口量创历史新高，加上部分亚洲地区政策调整（如印度税制变动），导致区域间的货源流动出现新的分配方式。

其中两点较为关键：

• 印度对白银征税，使部分供应转向美国市场，美国近期的白银进口量明显上升。
• 亚洲市场的可用现货因此被分流，国内库存进一步缩减。

这种全球流向的变化不仅影响区域价格，还可能拉大各地现货与期货之间的差距。区域供需错配对贵金属价格影响往往具有滞后效应，但一旦积累，其影响会持续数月。

‍

4. 产业需求仍在增长，尤其是光伏领域

光伏产业对白银的消耗在过去几年保持稳定增长，白银约有四分之一的工业需求来自光伏产业链。第四季度通常是光伏装机较为密集的时期，因此对应的银浆需求往往有所增加。

在多个需求稳定甚至偏强的行业中，光伏仍是拉动白银实物消费的重要部分。需求走强叠加库存下降，使得现货市场对价格变化更加敏感。

‍

5. 金银比下探至阶段性低位

金银比近月持续回落，目前处于近年来的低位区间。金银比是贵金属领域常用的相对指标，具有一定市场情绪和资金流向指示意义。

（资料来源：Trading view）

‍

金银比走低通常意味着以下两点：

• 黄金先行上涨并维持稳态；
• 资金开始关注相对滞后的白银。

‍

在历史周期中，当金银比处于低位或持续回落阶段时，白银的相对表现往往具有更高弹性。特别是在库存下降和现货溢价同时存在的背景下，金银比的变化更可能反映资金变化，而非单纯的价格波动。

‍

需要强调的是，金银比并不直接决定价格，但当它与供需紧张同时出现时，往往意味着市场对白银的预期正在边际改善。

‍

6. 综合判断

将库存、月间价差、出口与贸易方向、产业需求及金银比放在一起分析，可以得到一个相对清晰的结论：

白银正在经历一轮以现货紧张为核心的结构性变化。

‍

这种变化带来的影响包括：

• 短期走势可能以波动为主，但回调空间受库存与现货需求支撑；
• 中期趋势偏强，因为库存恢复一般需要时间，而出口与产业需求并未出现下降；
• 若金价继续维持强势，白银的相对涨幅可能更高，这与金银比的阶段性变化一致。

‍

从数据结构来看，白银目前处于供需偏紧阶段，这一阶段可能持续至库存出现明显回升或产业需求放缓。在此之前，价格更容易受到现货端的推动。

‍

Every trader has had that moment where a seemingly perfect trade goes astray. 

You see a clean chart on the screen, showing a textbook candle pattern; it seems as though the market planets have aligned, and so you enthusiastically jump into your trade.

But before you even have time to indulge in a little self-praise at a job well done,  the market does the opposite of what you expected, and your stop loss is triggered.

This common scenario, which we have all unfortunately experienced, raises the question: What separates these “almost” trades from the truly higher-probability setups? 

‍

The State of Alignment

A high-probability setup isn’t necessarily a single signal or chart pattern. It is the coming together of several factors in a way that can potentially increase the likelihood of a successful trade. 

When combined, six interconnected layers can come together to form the full “anatomy” of a higher-probability trading setup:

• Context
• Structure
• Confluence
• Timing
• Management 
• Psychology

When more of these factors are in place, the greater the (potential) probability your trade will behave as expected.

‍

Market Context 

When we explore market context, we are looking at the underlying background conditions that may help some trading ideas thrive, and contribute to others failing.

Regime Awareness

Every trading strategy you choose to create has a natural set of market circumstances that could be an optimum trading environment for that particular trading approach.

For example:

• Trending regimes may favour momentum or breakout setups.
• Ranging regimes may suit mean-reversion or bounce systems.
• High-volatility regimes create opportunity but demand wider stops and quicker management.

Investing time considering the underlying market regime may help avoid the temptation to force a trending system into a sideways market.

Simply looking at the slope of a 50-period moving average or the width of a Bollinger Band can suggest what type of market is currently in play. 

Sentiment Alignment

If risk sentiment shifts towards a specific (or a group) of related assets, the technical picture is more likely to change to match that. 

For example, if the USD index is broadly strengthening as an underlying move, then looking for long trades in EURUSD setups may end up fighting headwinds.

Setting yourself some simple rules can help, as trading against a potential tidal wave of opposite price change in a related asset is not usually a strong foundation on which to base a trading decision.

Key Reference Zones

Context also means the location of the current price relative to levels or previous landmarks.

Some examples include:

• Weekly highs/lows
• Prior session ranges, e.g. the Asian high and low as we move into the European session
• Major “round” psychological numbers (e.g., 1.10, 1000)
  
  

A long trading setup into these areas of market importance may result in an overhead resistance, or a short trade into a potential area of support may reduce the probability of a continuation of that price move before the trade even starts.

‍

Market Structure 

Structure is the visual rhythm of price that you may see on the chart. It involves the sequences of trader impulses and corrections that end up defining the overall direction and the likelihood of continuation:

• Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL)
• Downtrend: Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
• Transition: Break in structure often followed by a retest of previous levels.

A pullback in an uptrend followed by renewed buying pressure over a previous price swing high point may well constitute a higher-probability buy than a random candle pattern in the middle of nowhere.

Compression and Expansion

Markets move through cycles of energy build-up and release. It is a reflection of the repositioning of asset holdings, subtle institutional accumulation, or a response to new information, and may all result in different, albeit temporary, broad price scenarios.

• Compression: Evidenced by a tightening range, declining ATR, smaller candles, and so suggesting a period of indecision or exhaustion of a previous price move, 
• Expansion: Evidenced by a sudden breakout, larger candle bodies, and a volume spike, is suggestive of a move that is now underway.
  
  

A breakout that clears a liquidity zone often runs further, as ‘trapped’ traders may further fuel the move as they scramble to reposition.

A setup aligned with such liquidity flows may carry a higher probability than one trading directly into it.

‍

Confluence 

Confluence is the art of layering independent evidence to create a whole story. Think of it as a type of “market forensics” — each piece of confirmation evidence may offer a “better hand’ or further positive alignment for your idea.

There are three noteworthy types of confluence:

1. Technical Confluence – Multiple technical tools agree with your trading idea:

• Moving average alignment (e.g., 20 EMA above 50 EMA) for a long trade
• A Fibonacci retracement level is lining up with a previously identified support level.
• Momentum is increasing on indicators such as the MACD.

2. Multi-Timeframe Confluence – Where a lower timeframe setup is consistent with a higher timeframe trend. If you have alignment of breakout evidence across multiple timeframes, any move will often be strengthened by different traders trading on different timeframes, all jumping into new trades together.

3. Volume Confluence – Any directional move, if supported by increasing volume, suggests higher levels of market participation. Whereas falling volume may be indicative of a lesser market enthusiasm for a particular price move.

Confluence is not about clutter on your chart. Adding indicators, e.g., three oscillators showing the same thing, may make your chart look like a work of art, but it offers little to your trading decision-making and may dilute action clarity.

Think of it this way: Confluence comes from having different dimensions of evidence and seeing them align. Price, time, momentum, and participation (which is evidenced by volume) can all contribute.

‍

Timing & Execution 

An alignment in context and structure can still fail to produce a desired outcome if your timing is not as it should be. Execution is where higher probability traders may separate themselves from hopeful ones.

Entry Timing

• Confirmation: Wait for the candle to close beyond the structure or level. Avoid the temptation to try to jump in early on a premature breakout wick before the candle is mature.
• Retests: If the price has retested and respected a breakout level, it may filter out some false breaks that we will often see.
• Then act: Be patient for the setup to complete. Talking yourself out of a trade for the sake of just one more candle” confirmation may, over time, erode potential as you are repeatedly late into trades.

Session & Liquidity Windows

Markets breathe differently throughout the day as one session rolls into another. Each session's characteristics may suit different strategies. 

For example:

• London Open: Often has a volatility surge; Range breaks may work well.
• New York Overlap: Often, we will see some continuation or reversal of morning trends.
• Asian Session: A quieter session where mean-reversion or range trading approaches may do well

‍

Trade Management 

Managing the position well after entry can turn probability into realised profit, or if mismanaged, can result in losses compounding or giving back unrealised profit to the market. 

Pre-defined Invalidation

Asking yourself before entry: “What would the market have to do to prove me wrong?” could be an approach worth trying. 

This facilitates stops to be placed logically rather than emotionally. If a trade idea moves against your original thinking, based on a change to a state of unalignment, then considering exit would seem logical. 

Scaling & Partial Exits

High-probability trade entries will still benefit from dynamic exit approaches that may involve partial position closes and adaptive trailing of your initial stop.

‍

Trader Psychology 

One of the most important and overlooked components of a higher-probability setup is you.

It is you who makes the choices to adopt these practices, and you who must battle the common trading “demons” of fear, impatience, and distorted expectation.

Let's be real, higher-probability trades are less common than many may lead you to believe. 

Many traders destroy their potential to develop any trading edge by taking frequent low-probability setups out of a desire to be “in the market.” 

It can take strength to be inactive for periods of time and exercise that patience for every box to be ticked in your plan before acting.

Measure “You” performance

Each trade you take becomes data and can provide invaluable feedback. You can only make a judgment of a planned strategy if you have followed it to the letter. 

Discipline in execution can be your greatest ally or enemy in determining whether you ultimately achieve positive trading outcomes.

‍

Bringing It All Together – The Setup Blueprint

Final Thoughts

Higher-probability setups are not found but are constructed methodically. 

A trader who understands the “higher-probability anatomy” is less likely to chase trades or feel the need to always be in the market. They will see merit in ticking all the right boxes and then taking decisive action when it is time to do so. 

It is now up to you to review what you have in place now, identify gaps that may exist, and commit to taking action!