FX Analysis - Euro softens on cool CPI readings, Gold rallies again, NZD surges on RBNZ
Lachlan Meakin
22/12/2023
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The Euro was softer In Wednesdays US session with EURUSD failing to hold above the psychological 1.10 level with cooler than expected inflation readings out of Spain and Germany weighing on the single currency. EURGBP dropped for the fifth straight session and setting new November lows. Comments from ECB member Stournaras pushing back on April rate cut bets failing to offer much support.
Chart Source: TradingView.com JPY firmed against the USD, USDJPY still playing catch up with US – JP rate differentials. US yields were again lower across the curve putting downward pressure on USDJPY. The Yen did give up some gains after some dovish comments from the BoJ's Adachi regarding the BoJ’s easy money policies.
Chart Source: TradingView.com After a recent tear higher AUD was the G10 underperformer while across the ditch NZD was one of the outperformers. NZDUSD spiking higher following a hawkish hold from the RBNZ where the Central bank left rates on hold as expected, but it raised both its OCR and CPI forecasts and left the door wide open for future hikes if needed. AUDNZD tumbling through its 2023 range midpoint support at 1.07735 and setting new November lows.
Chart Source: TradingView.com Gold rallied for the fifth straight session, despite a bounce in the USD. XAUUSD poking it’s head above 20250 USD an ounce and entering the resistance zone set in April – May before paring some of its gains. The 2047-2067 zone looking a key area to test the rampant gold bull run of the last two weeks.
Chart Source: TradingView.com
By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.
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FX markets enter an important window with a Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference, US ISM activity data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures all due.
Quick facts
The upcoming Fed policy decision and press conference are closely watched for guidance on the potential timing of rate cuts, with implications for US Treasury yields and USD direction.
Broad USD selling has intensified over the last 48 hours. The move has coincided with renewed tariff rhetoric and heightened sensitivity to FX intervention narratives.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday, 2 February, with ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, 4 February, providing timely insight into US growth momentum.
German CPI, euro area GDP and unemployment, China PMIs, and Australian labour data provide regional context, particularly for EUR and AUD crosses.
USD/JPY
What to watch
The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent press conference are key events influencing US Treasury yields.
Any shift in tone around inflation progress, economic risks, or rate cut timing expectations may affect yield differentials and near-term USD sensitivity.
Recent broad USD weakness, reinforced by tariff-related headlines and intervention sensitivity, has added downside pressure to the USD.
On the JPY side, Japan inflation signals, including Tokyo CPI, are relevant as indicators of domestic price trends and potential policy direction.
Key releases and events
Thu 30 Jan: Japan Tokyo CPI (January)
Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference
Mon 2 Feb: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 4 Feb: US ISM Services PMI
Technical snapshot
USDJPY has broken lower from its recent consolidation zone, with downside range evident over the last 48 hours. Price has moved down to the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and is testing a level not seen since October 2025.
USDJPY 1-day chart
EUR/USD
What to watch
The Fed decision and press conference may influence EUR/USD primarily through USD moves linked to Treasury yield reactions.
On the EUR side, German CPI will show inflation trends, while euro area flash GDP and unemployment data inform the regional growth outlook.
Key releases and events
Thu 29 Jan: Germany CPI (preliminary)
Thu 29 Jan: Eurozone flash GDP, Q4 2025
Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve decision and press conference
Fri 30 Jan: Eurozone unemployment rate
Technical snapshot
EURUSD has extended above a prior resistance level, with expanded daily ranges and strong momentum. Price action in other USD crosses suggests the move may be reflecting USD weakness, rather than a material shift in euro area fundamentals.
EURUSD 1-day chart
EUR/AUD
What to watch
Alongside euro area growth numbers, Australian employment data may influence near-term EUR/AUD sensitivity ahead of the RBA policy decision next week.
China's official PMIs remain relevant, as shifts in Chinese activity expectations can influence AUD via commodity demand and regional risk sentiment.
Key releases and events
Thu 29 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Detailed (Dec 2025), 11:30am AEDT
Fri 31 Jan: China official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Tue 4 Feb: RBA policy decision
Technical snapshot
EUR/AUD has decisively broken below its prior support zone, with price now testing levels not seen since April 2025. Momentum remains negative, consistent with a renewed downside phase rather than consolidation.
EURAUD 1-day chart
Bottom line
The Fed decision and press conference, US PMI data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures are clustered in a short window.
Markets will be watching whether the USD weakness evident over the last 48 hours extends further.