市场资讯及洞察
Most traders understand EA portfolio balance through the lens of traditional risk management — controlling position sizes, diversifying currency pairs, or limiting exposure per trade.
But in automated trading, balance is about deliberately constructing a portfolio where different strategies complement each other, measuring their collective performance, and actively managing the mix based on those measurements.
The goal is to create a “book” of EAs that can help diversify performance over time, even when individual strategies hit rough patches.
A diversified mix of EAs across timeframes and assets can, in some cases, reduce reliance on any single strategy. This approach reduces dependency on any single EA’s performance, smooths your overall equity curve, and builds resilience across changing market conditions.
It’s about running the right mix, identifying gaps in your coverage, and viewing your automated trading operation as an integrated whole rather than a collection of independent systems.
Basic Evaluation Metrics – Your Start Point
Temporal (timeframe) Balancing
When combined, a timeframe balance (even on the same model and instrument) can help flatten equity swings.
For example, a losing phase in a fast-acting M15 EA can often coincide with a profitable run in an H4 trend model.
Combining this with some market regime and sessional analysis can be beneficial.
Asset Balance: Managing Systemic Correlation Risk
Running five different EAs on USDJPY might feel diversified if each uses different entry logic, even though they share the same systemic market driver.
But in an EA context, correlation measurement is not necessarily between prices, but between EA returns (equity changes) relating to specific strategies in specific market conditions.
Two EAs on the same symbol might use completely different logic and thus have near-zero correlation.
Conversely, two EAs on a different symbol may feel as though they should offer some balance, but if highly correlated in specific market conditions may not achieve your balancing aim.
In practical terms, the next step is to take this measurement and map it to potential actionable interventions.
For example, if you have a EURUSD Trend EA and a GBPUSD Breakout EA with a correlation of 0.85, they are behaving like twins in performance related to specific market circumstances. And so you may want to limit exposure to some degree if you are finding that there are many relationships like this.
However, if your gold mean reversion EA correlates 0.25 compared to the rest of your book, this may offer some balance through reducing portfolio drawdown overlap.
Directional and Sentiment Balance
Markets are commonly described as risk-on or risk-off. This bias at any particular time is very likely to impact EA performance, dependent on how well balanced you are to deal with each scenario.
You may have heard the old market cliché of “up the staircase and down the elevator shaft” to describe how prices may move in alternative directions. It does appear that optimisation for each direction, rather than EAs that trade long and short, may offer better outcomes as two separate EAs rather than one catch-all.
Market Regime and Volatility Balance
Trend and volatility states can have a profound impact on price action, whether as part of a discretionary or EA trading system. Much of this has a direct relationship to time of day, including the nature of individual sessions.
We have a market regime filter that incorporates trend and volatility factors in many EAs to account for this. This can be mapped and tested on a backtest and in a live environment to give evidence of strategy suitability for specific market conditions.
For example, mean reversion strategies may work well in the Asian session but less so in strongly trending markets and the higher volatility of the early part of the US session.
As part of balancing, you are asking questions as to whether you actually have EA strategies suited to different market regimes in place, or are you using these together to optimise book performance?
The table below summarises such an approach of regime vs market mapping:
Multi-Level Analysis: From Composition to Interaction
Once your book is structured, the challenge is to turn it into something workable. An additional layer of refinement that turns theory and measurement into something meaningful in action is where any difference will be made.
This “closing the circle” is based on evidence and a true understanding of how your EAs are behaving together. It is the step that takes you to the point where automation can begin to move to the next level.
Mapping relationships with robust and detailed performance evaluation will take time to provide evidence that these are actually making a difference in meeting balancing aims.
To really excel, you should have systems in place that allow ongoing evaluation of the approaches you are using and advise of refinements that may improve things over time.
What Next? – Implementing Balance in Practice
Theory must ultimately translate into an executable EA book. A plan of action with landmarks to show progress and maintain motivation is crucial in this approach.
Defining classification tags, setting risk weights, and building monitoring dashboards are all worth consideration.
Advanced EA traders could also consider a supervisory ‘Sentinel’ EA, or ‘mothership’ approach, to enable or disable EAs dynamically based on underlying market metrics and external information integrated into EA coding decision-making.
Final Thoughts
A balanced EA portfolio is not generated by accident; it is well-thought-out, evidence-based and a continuously developing architecture. It is designed to offer improved risk management across your EA portfolio and improved trading outcomes.
Your process begins with mapping your existing strategies by number, asset, and timeframe, then expands into analysing correlations, directional bias, and volatility regimes.
When you reach the stage where one EA’s drawdown is another’s opportunity, you are no longer simply trading models but managing a system of EA systems. To finish, ask yourself the question, “Could this approach contribute to improved outcomes over time?”. If your answer is “yes,” then your mission is clear.
If you are interested in learning more about adding EAs to your trading toolbox, join the new GO EA Programme (coming soon) by contacting [email protected].
在最近几乎所有的社交媒体和新闻网站，对于澳洲的经济我们看到的文章和评论几乎全部都是一边倒的看法：放缓，疲软，停滞不前，甚至接近衰退。而另一方面，不论是超市，咖啡店还是餐馆的价格，又居高不下，加上社会新闻还时不时爆出一下澳洲当地青年打架斗殴抢劫盗窃的新闻。如果我们不是真实生活在澳洲，比如咱们在国内的亲朋好友们，绝对认为我们生活的水深火热。那既然澳洲现在经济不好，生活成本又高，社会治安也不好，那是不是顺理成章澳洲股市也应该大跌特跌呢？但是事实却刚好相反：截至今天2025年6月30日，澳洲大盘指数在过去12个月时间里累计上涨了10%，创下了2021年以来的最好纪录。如果我没有记错的话，澳洲在过去12个月是处于一个连续加息的阶段，同时中国的房地产在过去12个月也没有出现明显好转。那到底是什么原因使得澳洲股市可以在这样的背景下还能上涨10%呢？这是一个很好的问题，因为其涉及到全球宏观经济、澳大利亚自身经济结构以及市场里投资者的预期等多方面因素。接下来我们就来盘一盘为啥澳洲能够上涨，似乎对于中国经济影响并没有产生太多负面作用的原因。
先来说说澳洲本身自己的经济构成。如果按照澳洲股市市值排名的话，虽然澳洲的矿业与中国经济高度关联（尤其是大宗商品出口），但它其他的主要板块中，金融（银行、保险）、医疗、基础设施和科技等板块权重也非常高。例如占据股市权重比例最高的金融板块：四大银行、保险公司在过去半年，受益于澳洲经济韧性、房价回暖、利率高位稳住带来的净息差等因素，他们公布的财报依然是每年创出新高的阶段。说明银行和金融板块还在赚钱。而医疗和基础设施板块，则由于其防御性特质，表现稳健，不直接依赖中国需求。而和中国经济相关性最大的矿业板块，我们则要区分一下虽然铁矿石价格受中国房地产放缓影响，但能源（天然气、煤炭）、稀有金属、锂等品种需求稳定或受益于能源转型的因素影响，在过去1年其实并没有出现太大的下跌。然后我们来看看澳洲自己经济的强劲韧性：我们知道虽然澳洲经济季度数据动不动就说处在衰退边缘，看上去似乎只有零点几的涨幅，去掉通胀就是负数。但是其实澳洲有一个关键数据一直非常好，那就是失业率。澳洲的劳动力市场在过去12个月一直非常紧张，失业率长期维持在低位。虽然我们经常可以看到有裁员的新闻。但是总体来说，市场上即便是基础岗位，其人员开支也已经上涨很多。也正是因为大部分人依然可以找到工作，也许薪资会降低，但是还是有收入，因此他们依然有消费能力。而同一时间，联邦政府也不断增加新移民的数额，用移民潮来增强总体消费需求，抵消因为本地房贷和物价因素导致的消费降低。同时带动澳洲本地房地产和其他配套的消费需求。以上都是澳洲自己的情况。但是我们知道，在全球股市和经济周期里，澳洲几乎是没法自己做决定的。作为紧密团结在以美元为中心的经济体中，澳洲的经济和澳洲的股市基本上也和美元的经济周期息息相关。那问题来了，过去半年里，美国改变了啥？
选了新总统，一顿操作猛如虎？这些都不是最重要的。那最重要的是啥？是以美元为代表的，包括欧元和澳洲在内的西方货币的加息周期正式宣告结束了——虽然大家的物价其实并没有完全压下去。在物价还没有压下去之前，由于经济已经出现疲态，因此欧美包括澳洲自己，不得不必须提早降息，放水来刺激经济。而降息除了可以减少房贷月供以外，另一个最明显的特征就是将给股市带来大量的新增资金。而这，才是美国，澳洲，以及其他西方股市在过去一年里可以持续上涨最大的动力。所以，在我上一篇的文章里说到，在一个长期物价较高的环境里，有准备和无准备的人，会在短时间里产生很大的差别。如果用一句话来举例的话就是：的确，咖啡的价格上涨的很快，但是股票的价格上涨的却更快。如果这时你把赚的钱依然全部用在吃喝玩乐上，那几年之后，除了一身虎背熊腰之外，可能还会附赠脂肪肝和痛风的免费症状。而假如，我说的是假如，你在过去12个月里“不小心”买了点联邦银行或麦考理或国民银行的股票，虽然他们的回报率依然远远低于了数字货币那动辄3年10倍的状态，但是作为长期稳定高股息的澳洲标志股，这些被澳洲养老金所喜爱的股票可以给你带来的是更长远的安全感。
当然了，如果你的心还愿意体验一把年轻的感觉，那特斯拉或美国那最大的7个科技股也未尝不是另一种精彩的过山车。当然如果你对于金融一窍不通，那更简单，就100%复制粘贴巴菲特目前持仓的前10名的股票组合，剩下的啥也不要做，每半年根据巴菲特的变化自己改动一下就完事了。目前巴菲特持仓最大的前10股票是：1. Apple (AAPL)2. Bank of America (BAC)3. Coca-Cola (KO)4. American Express (AXP)5. Chevron (CVX)6. Kraft Heinz (KHC)7. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)8. Moody’s (MCO)9. U.S. Bancorp (USB)10. DaVita (DVA)而巴菲特从2019年开始大力投资日本股市，其主要的买入日本股票分别是：1. 三菱商事（Mitsubishi Corporation）2. 三井物产（Mitsui & Co., Ltd.）3. 住友商事（Sumitomo Corporation）4. 伊藤忠商事（Itochu Corporation）5. 丸红株式会社（Marubeni Corporation）当然，如果各位像我一样，懒得去找开通日本股票，换日元去买的话，也可以在澳洲证交所购买以澳元结算的日经指数开放式基金。几个全球最大的基金公司都在澳交所有日本指数基金可以选择，大家自行搜索。
本篇我想表达的观点是：澳洲虽然经济不好，物价高，但是由于目前处在降息周期，而且还没有结束，因此股市大概率会持续上涨。因为物价高，所以这时咱们如果可以少吃点，把用在吃喝上的去买点稳健性的理财或地产，都要比吃光用光来的更。。。算了，生命不能全部用金钱衡量，也许别人觉得那样很开心呢。我的确需要经常反省，因为我经常和自己说，也和别人说，咱们人生目标里不能只有一个金钱和物质目标，快乐的人生不是只为了存款和房子的，还有诗和远方，或者野营滑雪钓鱼赛车越野冲浪晒太阳，和躺着什么也不干，吃麻辣烫和看手机。。。我的文章写的很随意，但是也很走心。我希望可以给大家分享一些我的想法，也可以传递我的思路。愿各位可以在澳洲过得更好。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监
本周，美股涨势再度加速，标普与纳指双双刷新历史新高，市场对流动性前景持积极态度。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔依旧维持谨慎立场，反复强调“不急于降息”，但在财政政策预期持续放松的背景下，市场流动性继续向股市倾斜。近期隔夜逆回购使用量明显反弹，资金流向与短期交易意愿依然旺盛。财政方面，市场密切关注一项被称为“大美丽法案”的支出与税收方案，其预计可能大幅扩大债务上限。虽然方案在部分议员中存在分歧，但其潜在的资金释放效应已被市场计入流动性预期之中。与此同时，美国就业市场压力正在显现。本周非农就业与失业率数据将公布，市场普遍预期数据不乐观，这也使得“年内降息”成为再次被强化的市场预期逻辑之一。国际贸易方面，关税谈判动态频繁。欧盟释放积极信号，有意在普遍性关税框架下寻求豁免，以换取对话空间；加拿大在取消数字税后表示与美国的沟通有所进展；另一重要贸易方也即将收到美方的新一轮谈判方案。这些事件都显示出市场正处于博弈关键点，一旦谈判方向生变，市场敏感性将迅速上升。
国际局势方面，美国在多项区域事务中动作频频，美元指数则持续承压。截至目前，美元年内已下跌超10%，创下多年最差半年表现。这背后既有经济数据走弱的推动，也与政策预期转向宽松密切相关。黄金因此重回3300美元上方，年内涨幅已达5.5%。与此同时，比特币维持高位整理，量子与无人机等新兴技术板块也呈现明显反弹趋势。个股方面，美股核心科技板块表现亮眼，微软、Meta与Netflix再创新高；数字资产领域继续热议，尽管一家大型机构下调了对Circle的评级，并表达对其盈利模型的担忧，但Circle方面宣布已申请成为国家级信托银行，以强化其储备金安全性，此举或为其数字资产版图打开长期增长空间。大宗商品市场方面，美铀维持上行节奏，带动相关板块走强，今日澳铀亦有望受益。油价稳定，恐慌指数难以抬头，整体风险偏好依旧高位维持。汇市方面，美元指数持续回落，澳元兑美元升至0.658，美日变动不大，美元兑人民币则跌破7.16，整体汇市围绕美元弱势进行结构性调整。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
There is an apparent enthusiasm among traders nowadays to add indicators to charts that resemble modern art more than market analysis. RSI, MACD, moving averages, stochastic oscillators, Bollinger Bands, volume profiles, and so many more. While these tools do have their place in some strategies, many traders forget the fundamental truth: price is the source, everything else is a reaction.Learning to read price as a narrative, showing a sequence of events that reveals the intentions and psychology of both buyers and sellers, can offer the trader a level of understanding that no single or even multiple indicators can give.
Indicators Are the Supporting Act — Not the Main Show
Don’t take from the opening that I think for one moment that Indicators are inherently bad. They can be helpful when used correctly as a way to offer some confluence to what the current price may be suggesting.But by design, most indicators are lagging. They take price and/or volume data and apply mathematical formulas to summarise or smooth the past.Moving Averages tell you where the price has been over the period of the MA setting. RSI shows whether the recent move has been relatively strong, even if it doesn’t tell you why. MACD illustrates the relationship between two moving averages and whether it's changing, but not necessarily market intent.Indicators are descriptive, not predictive. They are great at confirming bias but may not produce desired outcomes when used as your primary decision-making tool.
Price Action is a Language
Every candlestick is a snapshot of a battle occurring between buyers and sellers over a fixed point in current time. The shape and size of each bar contain a message.A large bullish candle (close near the high) indicates strong buyer control during that bar.A long wick above the body shows attempted movement upward but failure to hold — in other words, a rejection at higher prices.A doji (small body, long wicks) suggests indecision — neither side in control.And of course, the reverse is the case for a bearish candle.These are not random. They reflect the psychology of where market participants are now and can imply a degree of confidence, hesitation, exhaustion, or even reversal pressure.
Key takeaway:
There could be merit in starting each trading session by scanning the last 5–10 candles on your timeframe and asking: Who was in control? Are they still in control? And is there evidence that this may continue or be changing on THIS candle?”These simple questions can dramatically shift your perspective from reaction to anticipation.
What is Market Structure?
While individual candles can show immediate intent, structure reveals progression.A trend is never a continued straight line; market structure is the pattern of swing highs and swing lows that form the underlying skeleton of a trend.An uptrend forms higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).A downtrend forms lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).A range is where highs and lows are roughly equal, showing balance between buyers and sellers.Structure tells you where traders are likely to place orders and whether a trend may continue.There may be stops placed below swing lows, creating potential support. There may be profit targets at prior highs, creating potential resistance.Breakout or breakdown movement may be triggered if there is a break of these structural key levels, e.g., a break of a previous swing high may suggest continuation.
Key takeaway:
Try to map out the most recent swing highs/lows on your chart. Ask the question: Are we building a structure to continue, or is there a potential pause point where the market may decide to shift direction? And how should this impact my decision to enter a trade or stay in an open trade?This framing, based on current market structure, helps you align with momentum rather than chase it.
Volume: The Emotion in the Story
While price tells you what is happening, volume gives a sense of how much conviction is behind it. Volume adds depth and credibility to the story of price. Although there are those who would be reluctant to use tick volume with Forex and CFD trading, there is still potential legitimacy in testing this in your trading. As it is leading, not lagging, volume with price (arguably) acts as an important market gauge. High volume on a breakout = genuine interest with evidence of market convictionLow volume breakout = potential trap. Lack of participation means the move may fail.Effort vs. Result = if price moves very little despite high volume, it suggests absorption — large opposing orders are sitting there.
Volume as a Visual Lie Detector?
Sometimes price action looks bullish, but volume says otherwise. For example, A bullish engulfing candle that forms with lower-than-average volume is often a false signal. A reversal candle that forms with a volume spike often suggests a strong shift in sentiment.To use this practically, consider a volume average line to highlight when it may be time to act (or time not to).
How to Practice Your Trading Story Creation
Through the key fundamental principles covered above, you can start training how to create a market story.
Daily Market Story Exercise:
- Strip off all indicators apart from volume!
- Look at the last 10–20 candles.
- Say out loud or write the story you see in front of you — e.g., “Price was rising but slowed near resistance. After a rejection candle, sellers stepped in with conviction as evidenced by the candle formation and volume. Now it’s testing the prior support zone…”
Do this each day, and you’ll build the ability to trade based on understanding of what market psychology is telling you rather than just guesswork.
When to Use Indicators — and When to Walk Away
As stated before, indicators aren't useless but can play an important part in confirming or disputing your market story. They work well when they confirm what price action already suggests, smooth out trends or help define zones, and help filter conditions (e.g., only trade long above 200 EMA).If you find yourself staring at indicator crossovers or waiting for an RSI line to tick over 30 without looking at price, you are reading the footnotes, not the full plot.Use indicators in the background, not the foreground of your decision-making.
Summary
Price is not just data, it’s market dialogue. It’s the collective voice of every trading participant in the market NOW. It demonstrates emotion, logic, and intention. When you learn to read the price like a story, you start anticipating rather than reacting. You reduce overtrading with a focus on price action that is compelling, not just suggestive. And arguably, your interaction with the market becomes clearer, simpler, and potentially far more powerful.
上周美股三大指数再度刷新历史高位，投资者情绪整体乐观，但市场的基本面支撑依然有限，数据表现与政策预期成为关键影响因素。近期多方观点认为，当前美国利率若能维持在1%-2%区间，或将有利于中短期经济运行，引发市场对于利率前景的更多猜测。备受关注的一项财政刺激法案正在推进过程中，尽管在部分立法程序中取得阶段性进展，但相关内容仍存在一定分歧。市场调查显示，该法案在部分群体中支持度较低，舆论对此有不少讨论。有观点指出，相关法案或将加大传统产业投入，并对债务结构产生一定影响，市场正在关注其对就业和财政的实际效果。同时，贸易谈判的不确定性也对市场构成扰动。多方沟通仍在持续推进中，而此前设定的90天关税宽限期临近尾声，投资者密切关注后续进展，特别是在欧美及亚洲多方的沟通节奏上。本周最重要的宏观数据来自即将公布的美国非农就业数据，市场预测新增就业人数或将继续放缓，失业率或有回升。如果数据进一步走弱，可能强化市场对于货币政策宽松预期的判断。板块方面，美股科技巨头普遍收涨，除个别权重股轻微调整外，整体走势强劲。芯片龙头继续领涨，市场对AI及新一代技术板块的关注度居高不下。稳定币相关概念股则出现波动，其中CRCL跌破$180，技术面关注反弹信号；比特币则一度突破108,000美元，维持强势区间运行。核能及原材料板块维持强势，受国际价格支撑，澳洲铀矿股今日或继续获得市场关注。黄金价格略有下行，避险情绪相对平稳；原油小幅回调，市场整体风险情绪尚可。汇市方面，美元指数延续偏弱走势，市场正等待更多实质性政策与经济信号。澳元兑美元维持在0.65上方，美元兑日元窄幅震荡，美元兑人民币保持在7.16附近水平。稳定币立法进展仍是后续市场观察重点，或将在年中迎来关键窗口。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
昨晚美国一季度GDP意外下修，加上特朗普的“影子主席”提案影响，美元指数继续跌破98.00，创下2022年2月以来新低。这已是美元指数连续第4周运行在100关口下方，累计贬值幅度达4%。周四，特朗普放言将提前8个月提名下任美联储主席，意图打造“影子美联储”施压现任主席鲍威尔。白宫考虑最早9月宣布人选，提前了8-10个月，远超传统3-4个月交接期。这将创造近一年的“双头统治期”，候任主席可通过言论引导市场预期，形成对现任决策层的“影子压力”。这种安排直接挑战美联储的独立性根基。鲍威尔在国会听证时直言：“美联储的任务是确保美国经济状况良好，其他都是干扰”。当被问及独立性受威胁的后果，他警告：“失去价格稳定信誉将推高长期利率，重建信誉代价高昂”。市场热度较高的候选人名单包括：1. 沃什（Kevin Warsh）：2006年2月到2011年4月曾任美联储理事，2024年11月特朗普考虑提名其担任财政部长。他曾协助时任美联储主席伯南克处理过08年金融危机，可以帮助投资者稳定对于市场的信心。货币政策方面，沃什重视美联储政策独立性，总体偏鹰派，可能与特朗普主张冲突。2. 贝森特（Scott Bessent）：现任财政部部长，曾经的对冲基金经理，曾在索罗斯手下工作。非常认可特朗普“美国优先”主张，偏向于宽松货币政策，马斯特离场后，贝森特现在俨然已成为trump团队里的二号人物，特朗普眼中忠诚度是比较高的一位人选。但是作为曾经的基金经理，他把50亿的基金规模管理成了5亿，市场可能会质疑其专业性和经验度。3. 沃勒（Christopher Waller）：现任美联储理事，特朗普第一任期内受到提任，货币政策态度比较灵活。沃勒近期表态支持7月降息，与特朗普诉求形成微妙呼应。如果他成为美联储主席，市场可能认为美联储政策得到一定的延续，不确定性较低。4. 鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）:现任美联储理事，特朗普第一任期内受到提任。2025年3月12日，特朗普的顾问表示，鲍曼已确认接任下一任副主席，取代迈克尔，成为美联储的最高监管官员。GDP再次出现负值，美元可能面临新一轮抛压。2025年第一季度GDP环比年化萎缩0.5%，这是自2022年以来的最差季度表现。哈佛大学经济学教授萨默斯毫不留情地评价：“一个世纪以来，这可能是美国总统任期前一百天内经济表现最差的一次”，，显示经济动能正在全面减弱，当前10年期美债实际收益率已跌破1.8%萎缩的核心原因是进口激增与政府支出收缩，以及影子美联储催动交易。企业因恐慌性囤货导致进口暴增——货物进口量在1月至3月间飙升50.9%，贸易逆差扩大至1620亿美元。这种“透支式进口”不仅未能提振经济，反而挤压未来消费空间。技术破位也表明美元的下行通道。从技术图形观察，美元指数已形成清晰空头格局：周线三连阴击穿99.30颈线位，确认头肩顶形态，量度目标指向94区域；MACD指标呈现2023年11月以来最强看跌信号，日线RSI触及28.6超卖；关键支撑带98.20-98.50正接受考验，此处汇聚长期趋势线与斐波那契138.2%扩展位。中期来讲，欧洲央行放缓降息加上日本央行加息预期，可尝试做多欧元/日元交叉盘，而因铁矿石价格收到中国经济复苏疲软牵连，可尝试做空澳元/美元：“去美元化”正从概念变为现实。全球贸易中以美元计价比例降至46%（2015年为55%），各国央行黄金储备持续增加。美元作为避险资产的光环，正被“美国制造的不确定性”侵蚀。技术性反弹或许可期——美元净空头占比达历史峰值的92%，市场过度拥挤可能引发短期逆转。但若98关口确认失守，美元或将滑向更深贬值。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部
2002年，一位名叫陈浩的作者出版了《筹码分布》一书。该书以筹码研究为切入点，开创了技术分析的一个全新分支，书中的诸多观点在之后广为流传，并对市场分析方法产生了深远影响。如今，许多国内主流交易软件中都配有筹码分布功能，其概念正是源自这本书的核心内容。然而，各大软件中的筹码分布功能并不尽完善。它们背后的模型在时间维度上存在一定缺陷，无法精确追溯每笔成交对应的建仓时点，只能依赖时间推移进行自然衰减的估算。这种方式虽然简单直观，却容易导致偏差，尤其是在剧烈波动的市场环境中。基于这一局限，TradingView在原有理念基础上进行了改进。用户可以自定义时间区间或价格区间，系统将基于该区间内的实际成交数据生成成交量分布图谱。值得注意的是，TradingView所呈现的是成交量分布，而非直接定义的筹码分布。这种方式更为客观，给予用户更高的分析自由度，交易者可以根据成交量的堆积情况，结合自身判断推导出可能的筹码分布情况，而不是被动接受软件直接给出的、可能存在误差的结果。令人欣喜的是，GO Markets平台近期已正式接入 TradingView，用户现可在同一平台上实现行情分析与交易操作的一体化，大幅提升交易效率。只需注册我们的交易账户，并开通相应的TradingView使用权限，即可开始使用成交量分布这一强大功能。接下来，我们将为您演示这一功能的具体使用方法。首先，打开我们在TradingView中的图表窗口，并选择想要分析的标的，这里以苹果公司（Apple）的股票为例。在左侧工具栏中，可以找到一个名为 “Forecasting and Measurement Tools” 的图标。点击图标右侧的展开按钮后，会出现一组相关工具。
在其中的Volume Based分栏下，可以看到两个关键选项：Fixed Range Volume Profile和Anchored Volume Profile。这两个工具分别对应两种不同类型的成交量分布展示方式：Fixed Range Volume Profile：用于分析指定价格区间内的成交量分布。Anchored Volume Profile：用于分析自某一特定时间点以来的成交量分布。我们先来看一下Fixed Range Volume Profile的展示效果。点击该工具后，在图表中选择一个起点和终点，例如，如果我们想研究苹果股票在2024年4 月份从高点回落这段时间内的成交量分布，只需选中相应区间，即可生成分析结果，如下图所示：
可以看到，该工具清晰地展示了该时间区间内不同价格水平的成交量分布。与传统的下方成交量柱状图不同，这里是按价格维度来分布成交量，而非按时间。这种展示方式有助于我们识别出市场中多空力量的集中区域，即哪些价格区间吸引了大量交易，从而辅助判断潜在的支撑位和压力位。如果我们改用Anchored Volume Profile工具，则展示的是自选定时间点至今这一期间内的成交量分布，更适合用于趋势跟踪或关键事件后的交易结构分析。
总的来说，TradingView提供的成交量分布工具，为我们进行筹码分析和市场结构判断提供了更加直观和灵活的方式。无论是通过 Fixed Range Volume Profile 分析特定区间内的成交量堆积，还是借助 Anchored Volume Profile跟踪某一关键时点以来的交易情况，都能有效帮助我们识别主力建仓区域、判断支撑压力位，提升交易决策的准确性。相比传统交易软件中固化的筹码分布模型，TradingView更强调分析自主性。建议有一定交易经验的投资者深入学习并运用这一工具，为自己的技术分析体系增添一项强有力的辅助手段。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部