市场资讯及洞察

三家中央银行同时决定利率,布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动,中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么,都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定,市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1%的可能性为66%。
- 一些分析师警告说,到年底,伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5%,并将美联储的降息推迟到9月,这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”,此后,布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储:澳大利亚会再次加息吗?
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后,澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85%。
现在的问题是,在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前,它是否会再次发生变化,该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认,决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定,这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66%,无论周一发生什么情况,5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。

联邦公开市场委员会:可能持有,所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议,政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示,美联储将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的可能性为99%。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要(SEP)和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减,那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息,市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人,他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。

日本银行:可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议,预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75%(30年来的最高水平),2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”,并指出,如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果,进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布,这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计,2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0%,包括资历,基本薪酬增长约3.4%。如果结果证实了这一轨迹,那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90%的能源需求是进口的,而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本,并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停,4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定(目前为0.75%): 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。

石油:持续波动
本周早些时候,布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元,随后下跌17%,至80美元以下,随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四,由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击,而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解,布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下,分析师估计,到2026年底,消费者价格指数可能升至3.5%,第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周,石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。

One of the largest food retailers in the United States, Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), announced Q3 earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1883 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 465,000 (2022) Industry: Retail Key people: Rodney McMullen (CEO & Chairman) The results Korger reported revenue of $33.957 billion for the quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $33.903 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.95 per share vs. $0.907 per share expected.
CEO commentary Rodney McMullen, CEO of the company had this to say in the letter to investors after the release of Q3 results: "Kroger's third quarter results highlight the strength and diversity of our business model in a challenged operating environment, as strong fuel performance and growth in our alternative profit businesses supported continued adjusted net earnings per diluted share growth. As consumer spending tightens, we are focused on providing customers with exceptional value. By maintaining our long-term commitment to lower prices, personalised promotions and rewards, we are growing households and increasing loyalty, positioning Kroger for sustainable future growth.
We appreciate our associates and continue to invest in wages, benefits and training, which is resulting in continued improvements in our customer experience. "Our model's strength allows us to navigate many economic environments. We remain committed to balancing investments in associates and greater value for our customers while continuing to generate attractive and sustainable returns for our shareholders," McMullen highlighted the importance of the companies strategy to continue deliver solid results in the future. Stock reaction The stock had a positive reaction following the Q3 results announcement.
Shares were up by just over 2% at $44.59 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.59% 3 months: -3.69% Year-to-date: +0.22% 1 year: -7.71% Kroger stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $44.88 Roth MKM: $48 Deutsche Bank: $50 Bernstein: $54 BMO Capital: $45 Northcoast Research: $60 Kroger Co. is the 549th largest company in the world with a market cap of $32.29 billion. You can trade Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Kroger Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet


US business software company Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) announced the latest financial results for first quarter of fiscal 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Mountain View, California, United States Number of employees: 18,200 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software Key people: Sasan Goodarzi (CEO), Scott Cook (Chairman) The results Intuit reported revenue of $2.978 billion for the three months ending October 31 st (up by 15% from the same period last year), which was above analyst estimate of $2.878 billion. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.47 per share (up by 49% year-over-year) vs. $1.978 per share expected.
The company reiterated full fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance of between $15.890 billion to $16.105 billion, which would represent growth of between 11% to 12% year-over-year. CEO commentary "We had a very strong first quarter, starting our fiscal year with momentum," CEO of Intuit, Sasan Goodarzi said in a letter to investors. "With data and AI core to our strategy, we're accelerating innovation across our global financial technology platform to power the prosperity of consumers and small businesses," Goodarzi added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.68% at $565.07 a share on Tuesday.
Share rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +14.17% 3 months: +5.33% Year-to-date: +45.18% 1 year: +48.82% Intuit stock price targets Wells Fargo: $575 Bank of America: $580 Morgan Stanley: $525 KeyBanc: $600 JP Morgan: $563 Intuit Inc. is the 71 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.18 billion. You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
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USD – The US dollar index was ultimately firmer in a choppy session where DXY hit a low of 103.18 in the APAC session only to reverse course later hitting a high of 103.71 in the US session. A sour risk environment after some misses in US retail earnings and traders getting long before the FOMC minutes seem to be the key drivers. Reaction to the minutes ended up being muted with a slight pop that retraced in quick time.
DXY now sandwiched between its 200-day SMA and key support level at 103.60 heading into the APAC session. AUD – AUDUSD got off to a flier in the APAC session after what was seen as hawkish RBA minutes released early in the session. The Aussie did fade later as it failed to breach key technical resistance at the 200-day SMA at 0.6590 and finished the session flat.
Key levels to watch today will be 0.6524 to the downside which was the top end of its recent range and the aforementioned 200-day SMA to the upside, Aussie traders will have comments from Governor Bullock later today to watch out for. EUR GBP EUR was the G10 laggard with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.0901 before finding some support at the big figure. ECB president Lagarde did speak but failed to inspire the bulls, also some budgetary issue out of Germany weighed on the single currency.
GBP on the other hand outperformed with cable having a positive session after some hawkish commentary from the BoE. This saw a sharp drop in EURGBP from its resistance at 0.8750 and heading towards its lower trend line support. Gold – XAUUSD broke out, setting new November highs and testing the October highs at 2009 before finding some resistance.
This came despite a stronger USD on the session, which would cheer the gold bulls.


USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level. The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confident" policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%, he also hinted at rate cuts next year if inflation and the economy continued on its current path. There were also some comments from Fed member Bowman which skewed hawkish, but as she is already considered a hawk there wasn’t a comparable market reaction as to the Waller comments.
Chart Source:TradingView.com JPY was the G10 outperformer benefitting the most from USD weakness and lower US Treasury yields that saw the US 10 year and JGB 10-year yields compress further. USDJPY hitting a low of 147.32 and testing the November lows and support level at 147.27. Today the BoJ's Adachi is due to speak ahead of a raft of Japanese data released during the remainder of the week.
Chart Source:TradingView.com AUDUSD and NZDUSD both hit 3-month highs of 0.6665 and 0.6147 respectively, with broad USD weakness and a risk-on market supporting both cyclical currencies. Strength in the commodity markets and recent hawkish comments from RBA governor Bullock also lending a tailwind to AUD. Both currencies come into Wednesday with key economic readings to navigate, with Aussie CPI, where a drop to 5.2% Y/Y from 5.6% is expected, and a RBNZ rate decision due.
The RBNZ is widely expected to hold rates at 5.50% so it will be the forward guidance kiwi traders will be watching closely. Chart Source:TradingView.com


Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but eventually managed to hold that key level.
There were several hawkish leaning comments from ECB officials and ECB Minutes noting that members argued in favour of keeping the door open for a possible further rate. Source:TradingView.com GBPUSD extended on its mid-week bounce and made further progress above 1.2500 after UK manufacturing and services PMI figures beat forecasts. Source:TradingView.com USDJPY ended flat for the session but not before a sharp dip reversed following a bounce off support at 149.00 and seeing the pair again settle above 149.50.
Source:TradingView.com Ahead on Fridays, US traders will be mostly offline meaning another likely low volume session, we do have Manufacturing and Services PMI figures out of the US later today though.


The Euro was softer In Wednesdays US session with EURUSD failing to hold above the psychological 1.10 level with cooler than expected inflation readings out of Spain and Germany weighing on the single currency. EURGBP dropped for the fifth straight session and setting new November lows. Comments from ECB member Stournaras pushing back on April rate cut bets failing to offer much support.
Chart Source: TradingView.com JPY firmed against the USD, USDJPY still playing catch up with US – JP rate differentials. US yields were again lower across the curve putting downward pressure on USDJPY. The Yen did give up some gains after some dovish comments from the BoJ's Adachi regarding the BoJ’s easy money policies.
Chart Source: TradingView.com After a recent tear higher AUD was the G10 underperformer while across the ditch NZD was one of the outperformers. NZDUSD spiking higher following a hawkish hold from the RBNZ where the Central bank left rates on hold as expected, but it raised both its OCR and CPI forecasts and left the door wide open for future hikes if needed. AUDNZD tumbling through its 2023 range midpoint support at 1.07735 and setting new November lows.
Chart Source: TradingView.com Gold rallied for the fifth straight session, despite a bounce in the USD. XAUUSD poking it’s head above 20250 USD an ounce and entering the resistance zone set in April – May before paring some of its gains. The 2047-2067 zone looking a key area to test the rampant gold bull run of the last two weeks.
Chart Source: TradingView.com
