市场资讯及洞察

A -3.5% slide in AAPL stock price pre-market is seeing the tech giant looking to continue this weeks sell-off after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities plan to broaden iPhone restrictions to a number of state-owned companies and other government-affiliated entities. This comes after Wednesday saw the largest one day drop in AAPL stock in over month after the initial plans for the Chinese ban was reported by the Wall St Journal. The Chinese-US tech war seems to be escalating as China attempts to prop up it’s domestic chip makers in the face of US sanctions and reduce its reliance on Western technology, with AAPL an unwitting victim.

AAPL technical analysis: The pre-market currently is showing an AAPL open price of 176.50 a hefty 3.5% lower from yesterdays close of 182.91, this will see the price open below the key technical level of the 100 Day MA and making 8 day lows. Coming into play as well will be the support level of the August lows, after a down move started by a disappointing earnings report in early August. Another key level to the upside is the resistance level of the earnings gap fill, where a rally in AAPL stalled before this recent China induced sell-off.

As dire as the chart looks at the moment, there is some good news for AAPL bulls with some analysts seeing this sell-off as an overreaction as the Chinese ban will only effect 500,000 out of 45M iPhones after AAPL has seen massive share gains recently of the Chinese smartphone market. If we see support at and a hold of the post earnings August lows, a rebound in AAPL is certainly on the cards.

The recent resilience in AUDUSD, which has seen the pair bounce off and hold stubbornly above the 0.6400 major support level came to a dramatic end in today’s session. Risk aversion, disappointing PMI figures out of China and a hold in rates from the RBA all contributing to a break down in the exchange rate seeing AUDUSD break the recent support levels and hit its lowest level since November 2022. Looking at key levels to watch in AUDUSD the 0.6400 will be key in the short term, this is a major S/R level (as most big figures are in AUDUSD) a retake and hold of this level would cement the recovery in AUDUSD and likely a move higher to re-test the 0.6500 resistance level, however if this level is tested and is confirmed as a new resistance level a further move to the downside to test key support levels is a probability.

These key levels are: Daily trendline support around 0.6320 November 2022 lows 0.6275 Major support at the big 0.6200 figure. Also an RSI under 30, indicating an extreme oversold market, the RSI has been a good indicator of turning points in AUDUSD in the recent past. Key risk events ahead for AUD will be Australian Q2 GDP released on Wednesday, July’s Trade Balance on Thursday and Chinese CPI figures released on Saturday.

AUD traders will need to keep an eye on those key levels over these announcements.

The RBA minutes of their June meeting where another surprise hike had most of the market off side were released today, and they were surprisingly dovish. The board made clear the decision between a hike and hold was finely balanced and seems to suggest further hikes may require a high bar for inflation readings to sway them. AUD reaction was swift with AUDUSD selling off around 50 pips as the sellers finally took charge after a grinding rally upwards in AUD that had made nervous wrecks of the shorts.

The Key level of 0.6800 on the AUDUSD has again come into play, with it being almost impenetrable resistance at the top of the AUDUSD range, now it seems as is quite often the case, turning into major support. Drilling down to the 5 minute chart the buying support at 0.68 is obvious, with a decent bounce and hold of 0.6800 as the RSI reading moved into oversold territory. These technical levels will likely drive price action in todays remaining session, no further news is scheduled for Australia and the US calendar is extremely light after their long weekend.

For short term technical traders of the AUDUSD the 0.6800 level is key. Long above, short below while this level remains a major resistance/support level.

In yesterday’s session, the AUDUSD pair experienced a decline of nearly 1%, erasing the gains it had achieved over the past few days. This retracement arrives as the USD displays signs of renewed strength ahead of an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for to see if he drops any hints on the Fed’s plans.

As anticipation builds for Powell's speech, scheduled for tomorrow, market observers are on high alert for any indications regarding the trajectory of interest rates. They are particularly keen on understanding whether the Fed's rate hikes are done or if further hikes are on the cards. Additionally, the market will scrutinise the language Powell uses, gauging its hawkishness or dovishness to decode the central bank's future strategies.

These cues will aid in forecasting potential rate cuts once inflation subsides to desired levels. Technically, the AUDUSD pair hit a recent low of 0.63642 on August 17th, marking its lowest point since November 2022. There is considerable downside before finding the next significant support level around 0.62.

On the 1-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging close to oversold conditions, while there appears to be a minor horizontal support level holding price just above 0.64. Furthermore, the recent breach of a short-term diagonal support trend is worth noting. The market will closely monitor whether this trend can be reestablished over the coming days.

Overall, as the USD gains momentum leading up to Powell's speech, his comments will likely steer the pair's immediate movements.

Apple has had a spectacular start to 2023, locking in 7 consecutive positive months and putting in an increase of 52.16% year to date at its peak. However, August so far isn’t looking as healthy. Despite the positive financial performance beating Q3 earnings expectations, Apple shares are down 8.48% for the start of August.

Profit taking after 7 green months may be a factor in the recent decline, so the coming days will be key to see if this is a short-term fall or the beginning of a longer-term downtrend. From a technical perspective, price has fallen through an upward trend line that begun at the start of 2023. Price appears to have landed at a key support & resistance level around $177-179.

This temporary bounce also lines up almost exactly at the 2022 yearly open price of $177.83, which adds more strength to this support level. Holding this support level is critical for the price, as a failure to do so could potentially lead to further declines, with the next support level likely around $155-157. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart recently touched an oversold level of 30, followed by a slight bounce.

Traders will be watching to see if the two factors of RSI oversold and price at a key support level will be enough to stall the recent decline and potentially be a pivoting point to send price back north.

热门话题每年一次的苹果手机照例在今年又发布了第15代产品。就我看来，这15代和14代几乎没有任何变化。要是没有PPT上某些参数和颜色的不同，我都不知道这两代手机放在桌子上谁能分辨的出来。尤其是当两个手机都带上了手机壳之后，你别告诉我说你可以一眼就看得出差别。反正我看不出。

但是也是奇怪，苹果从12代到现在的15代，从后面的镜头到前面的屏幕，除了某些参数不断在进步以外，在设计上总体风格几乎就没改过。难道苹果粉丝们每年，甚至每两年更换同一款设计，只是稍微有点不同的手机，难道不会有审美疲劳么？我就是连续用了6，7，8三代手机之后实在是审美疲劳了，改换去了安卓系统手机，不但厂家多，设计也可以有很大的不同。当然，我明白，每个人都有自己的选择。但是今年15代推出以后到上周的接近20天时间里，其销量对比去年推出14代的时候，可还是低了整整5%。大家如果还有记忆的话，应该还记得，去年10月，是国内当时各地疫情此起彼伏，但是还没有完全放开的中间期，那时的人们出行都戴口罩，各地情况很不好，但还没有到大爆发的11月，但是就是这样的情况下，14代发布后的前20天里总销量也要比现在全部放开大家随便走动时期的15代要多。这到底是什么原因？我总结了三点原因：第一，就是我开头说了，审美疲劳。我知道很多朋友对苹果手机情有独钟，但是各位，咱们扪心自问一下，你中意的是苹果的操作系统，还是它万年不变的设计？我相信大部分人，包括我自己，都非常认可苹果IOS系统。但是相信和我之前使用6，7，8代苹果之后想更换一样想法的人应该也不会是少数，尤其是苹果过去几年不思进取，从12代到15代几乎没有变化的设计，让很多人都对苹果手机产生的负面印象。要不是苹果公司用其优秀的软件联通手机，电脑，手表，iPad等整个苹果生态系统来捆绑用户。如果没有其他产品，而仅仅靠苹果手机一个产品，其客户粘性必定会每年降低。

第二，引用电影里一句话就是：不是兄弟我无能，是敌军太狡猾了。在过去2年，由于芯片渠道被限制，导致之前国内手机占有率第一的华为手机不得不依靠其副牌荣耀来弥补一些低端市场，而之前华为Mate系列抢下的高端市场则被苹果，小米高端系列，以及Oppo Vivo高端系列不断侵蚀。这个情况却在今年发生了变化。华为在今年的新品发布会上意外发布了其新一代的Mate 60系列手机，并且迅速占领市场，虽然苹果15代预计光是Pro的全球出货量就会达到4000-5000万台，但是华为靠Mate60系列硬生生从其他厂家，但主要是苹果手里抢走了600万台的销售量。不知道是不是由于芯片不够，到现在国内华为Mate60还是非常缺货，但似乎越是缺货，反而消费者越要挤破头去抢。这华为Mate60的意外出现，也是今年导致苹果在中国地区销量下降的另一个主要原因。第三，可能也是最重要的一个原因，就是国内整体消费能力的疲软。虽然从主要数据来看，不论是总体消费总量，还是2023年新车销售情况来看，似乎都要比2022年好。但是从很多企业的营销方式上我们可以感觉到一丝寒意：今年10月初，国内超市龙头，永辉超市官网发文表示，将在全国范围的门店中增设“正品折扣店”，并同步在线上 APP/小程序增设折扣专区，提供食品、用品惊喜折扣价。阿里集团下属的盒马生鲜也同样宣布全面启动供应链调优项目，盒马鲜生线下门店的5000多款商品价格下调，将对乳制品、饼干、方便速食等多个品类设置“线下专享价”，价格普遍降低两成。从过去10个月的股价表现上，我们就可以看出一些端倪：第一个是京东2023年到现在的股价走势图

第二个是有淘宝和天猫双品牌的阿里股价走势：

最后一个就是主攻三四线城市，以及中低端市场的拼多多的股价走势：

为什么同样都是消费股，拼多多股价就能创新高，但是京东却下跌这么多？我们从两个平台一直主推的口号就可以知道区别：京东一直强调的是：我们只做正品。而拼多多一直奉行的是：帮我一起砍。现在的结果是，只做正品的销售额不断下降，而做打折低端产品的，则销量越来越多，说明了啥，还用我多说么？要不是阿里集团还有淘宝可以顶住一部分，如果只靠天猫，那在经济好的时候肯定谁也看不上淘宝，但是当经济周期不好，消费疲软的时候，这时候那曾经被大家嫌弃的淘宝就再次成为了顶梁柱。苹果在中国的销量下降，以及拼多多的流行，是不是让大家心里都在担心未来经济情况？其实任何的情况，都有两种角度来看问题。的确，现在的经济情况是不如2017，2018当年这么好。但是大家可别忘记了，中国几大著名的民营企业也是从当年由盛开始到衰。而如今如果经济压力大，那就意味着为了拉动消费，拯救经济，1.必须出台更多有利经济和消费的政策。2.必须重新帮扶鼓励民营企业，使其重新带动经济发展，和就业增加。所以苹果销量下降，也许在某一方面预示着消费的疲软。但是消费的疲软现象，也将意味着会有更多的利好和对民营经济的帮扶政策会出现。当然，以上所有的分析，都是我个人推测，因为买苹果手机减少的那几百万人，也无法去一一提问查询，所以就算推测出100个原因，也只是猜测而已。但是各位看官，你觉得上面的推测中，能对几分呢？免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监