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经济动态
货币政策只能三选二,你会怎么选?

热门话题最近有关澳元和人民币汇率出现大幅波动的情况,成为了很多澳洲华人朋友在讨论的问题。今天我们就来说说各国在货币政策制定上需要考虑的问题和平衡的关键点。首先,我还是先重复一下,我个人以来和大家说的影响澳元三大因素,依然是:铁矿石的价格,中国的经济表现,和美元货币政策。而前两者的原因又息息相关,因此其实很大程度上,中国经济表现和澳元的关系是非常直接和紧密的。即使澳洲在过去10年里极力想减少对铁矿石影响其汇率的依赖,但是至今为止,澳洲在整体经济占比上,依然没有可以找到其他能够代替铁矿石在其出口总量上的比重。因此到目前为止,铁矿石的走势依然严重的影响着澳元的汇率。而从下方铁矿石过去2年的走势图我们不难看出,在过去半年里,铁矿石价格从最高时候的900人民币每吨,下跌到了最低时候的接近650一吨。虽然现在回到了785,但是依然距离年初时候的900依然有大约10%的下滑。这也直接导致了澳元从今年年初到现在大趋势的下跌。

但是相对于铁矿石期货价格的下滑,中国经济数据,以及中国央行为了振兴经济而实施的和美元完全相反的降息措施,引起了人民币汇率的巨大震动。我身边很多朋友都在问,未来澳元或者人民币的走势会如何呢?除了我刚才说到的影响澳元走势的三个因素之外,今天我给大家来解释一个西方金融里经常提到的影响货币政策的三元悖论。所谓三元悖论,又称为三难选择,或者不可能三角, 英文叫Impossible trinity。按照国际金融学理论,就是一个国家在制定其货币政策时,不可能同时完成下面三个目标:1.允许资本的自由跨境流动2.汇率固定或基本保持不变3.独立的货币政策

根据这个理论,每个国家和地区都会根据自己的情况,来选择三个目标中的两个来制定其货币政策。比如香港财政司的港币政策里,最核心的目的就是需要保证资本的自由流动,和港币汇率的稳定。因此为了达到这两个目的,就不得不让港币和美元汇率绑定。如此一来,港币的货币政策很大程度上就不得不跟随美元的货币政策,也就无法达到独立货币政策这一个目标。再比如像澳洲,日本和英国等国家,他们在三选二的选择题里选择的是资本的自由流动和相对独立的货币政策。比如美国加息10次,他们有可能选择少加几次,也可以选择不加息。但是如此一来,就无法保持其货币和美元汇率的固定。因为国际资本会因为美元给的利息多,而从这些国家里流失去换成美元。过去一年我们看到不论是英镑日元还是澳元,都和美元出现了超过10%以上的变化。另一类国家或地区则选择了稳定的汇率,和独立的货币政策。比如像马来西亚和台湾地区,他们的货币在过去1年多美元加息进程中和日元或英镑相比,保持了和美元相对的稳定,并没有出现太大的汇率变化。另外这些地区也并没有和美元保持同步的加息,而选择了自己的货币政策。但是代价就是,他们必须限制资本的流动,因为资本是逐利的,会被美元的高利息所吸引。那这些国家和地区为了保持汇率相对稳定,就必须限制部分资本外流,也会限制那些投机资本的进入。所以根据这个三元定律,任何国家在制定其货币政策时,都会选择实现其中两个目标,同时不得不放弃另一个目标。因此同样的情况也适用于现在的中国和人民币。由于美国过去在加息,中国在降息,因此毫无意外,中国其中一个货币政策的目标就是有独立的货币政策。那三选二只剩下还可以实现一个目标了。这时如果要限制资本流动,那汇率稳定的目标就无法实现。如果要实现汇率稳定,那资本限制就无法实现。又或者,汇率稳定和资本流动限制各实现一半?这样0.5+0.5就等于1了。当然这是我幼稚的猜测。但是从现在人民币的走势来看,似乎限制资本流动成为了第二个货币政策的主要目标。但是由于中国国情的特殊性,也许国际金融的常规逻辑并不会完全适用。但是从市场规律和国际资本的角度来看,人民币在保汇率,降息和限制资金流出这三个方向上如果要实现同时三个目标,难度是很大的。如果说未来还有没有什么可能变化的可能来说,只有当美元正式开始降息以后,那人民币和美元的降息政策保持一致了,那人民币的压力就会小很多。在此之前,美元的高息将如同一个吸尘器一样,从全世界的资本市场和货币市场里吸纳比它利息低的货币和资金。对于我们散户投资者来说,我们需要做的就是了解明白这三者之间的关系。从而帮助我们在复杂的环境里做出一个相对的,成功率更大的决定。虽然我们谁也不能保证不会犯错,但是我们需要尽一切努力来降低出错的可能性,以及降低试错的成本。大家记住了,稳定的汇率,独立的货币政策,和自由流动的资本。在这三者中,大部分时候,或绝大部分时候,货币政策的制定者,只能选择其中两项。免责声明:GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Mike Huang
August 22, 2023
British Pound currency collapse with GBP/USD exchange rate charts showing decline
Forex
Why has the GBP Collapsed to record lows?

It hasn’t been a good Monday morning for some investors or English travelers who wish to sell the GBP to go abroad, as the Sterling Pound has collapsed to record lows to bring almost perfect parity with the U.S Dollar at 1 GBP equals $1.09. Sterling fell to the lowest level in 37 years, trading below the $1.09 following the rate increase. The cause to fight against inflation was always going to bring unwanted consequences to countries’ currencies and economies.

The most recent example has been the effect on the GBP after the Bank of England announced a rate hike of 0.5% to lift current interest rates from 1.75% to 2.25%, the biggest since 2008. It is compounded by the U.S Dollar recent record heights, it comes as the greenback surged to a fresh 20-year high against its peers after the Federal Open Market Committee lifted its key rate by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row and projected further increases in borrowing costs in an effort to tame inflation. America’s strategy is different by the fact they want to keep unemployment low, at the same time of attacking inflation, this is different from the BoJ, Bank of England whose sole purpose is to keep inflation at around the 2% level.

The cost of UK government borrowing rose by the most in a single day for at least a decade, while the currency meltdown fueled speculation the Bank of England would be forced to launch an emergency rate rise to mend the UK’s battered credibility with global investors. The UK government borrowed £11.8bn last month, almost twice as much as the Treasury’s independent forecaster had expected, as high inflation pushed interest payments to an August record. Below is a snapshot of the currency at the time of writing 3:07pm on Monday 26 th of September 2022.

And they aren’t many who believe the UK’s crisis is going to improve. Big banks such as The US investment bank JPMorgan said it exposed “a broader loss of investor confidence in the government’s approach,” while Citi said the chancellor’s tax giveaway, the biggest since 1972, risked “a confidence crisis in sterling”. To conclude, it seems that the BoJ strategy in hiking interest rates its going through the rough slow growth which central bankers advised about at the Jackson Hole meeting a few weeks back and it wont be a smooth ride back up as investors are pretty spooked by the effect the hikes have had in the market and sell off of the pound has increased as the Dollar seems like a better buy given its recent rise.

Trading opportunities such as the GBP FX pairs are in focus add to this the USD who has also provided CFD traders with many opportunities the last few weeks. To create access to a Metatrader trading platform please visit us on here and activate your trading account or call us on the Melbourne office-based number 03 8566 7680. As always please do your own research and trade responsibly.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Guardian

GO Markets
August 22, 2023
股票和指数
万众瞩目等待英伟达财报

热门话题自去年11月份ChatGPT引爆AI潮以来已经过去9个月,不仅扭转了上半年纳指走向,更使得纳指调权重,因为受AI火爆影响,相关高科技权重股持续高涨,市值越来越高,在纳指100中的权重也越来越高,前7大市值股一度占据纳指100总市值48%,使得纳指100的参考意义越来越走样。目前美国政府正在抓紧拟定AI监管法案,在初步监管和限制框架推出之前,AI股整体无法继续上冲。加上近期美国疯狂发行国债,美股已经连跌三周,AI相关应用层股票跌幅很大,甚至连苹果和特斯拉都跌幅巨大,当然这其中有它们自己消息面利空影响,但是英伟达作为AI基础层霸主,其股价虽然有回落,幅度却不是很大,在刚刚过去的一周中甚至出现了反弹。而本周三盘后英伟达的二季度财报也是目前万众瞩目的,分析师普遍看好并给予厚望,如果不能达成预期目标,可能对AI狂热潮构成严重阻碍,对微软,谷歌,Meta以及AMD等科技巨头带来冲击。

过去一周英伟达股价上涨2.80%,年初至今涨幅累计达198%,这样的涨势令人心生忧虑,英伟达能否延续股价暴涨呢?目前,众多科技公司纷纷排队订购英伟达芯片,据称订单已经排到了2024年,其中包括马斯克以及沙特的大企业,也在不断争取获得更多英伟达芯片的机会。媒体估计,仅今年一年,英伟达有望销售约55万块价值数百亿美元的高端人工智能GPU H100芯片。按美元计算,英伟达的每个高性能计算加速器市场价格约为25000至30000美元,相较其每个芯片和外设成本3320美元高出10倍。这种需求激增促使英伟达上一季度业绩超预期,分析师先前预计营收为72亿美元,但英伟达宣布该季度将实现约110亿美元的营收,同比增长64%。华尔街分析师现预计下周财报能达到这一目标。预计每股收益为2.07美元,同比增长306%。英伟达已逐渐习惯于这种巨额数字,但这些数据给下周的报告设置了极高的期望,因此也是极其危险的。分析师普遍已经认为今后英伟达财报将成为整个人工智能热潮的晴雨表,由于需求极高,英伟达的业绩预期将非常出色,这意味着其利润率有望大幅超越以往。由此产生的结果是华尔街不断看好,对冲基金抓紧赶着财报前布局。Rosenblatt Securities分析师将英伟达目标价上调至惊人的800美元,较现价涨幅达80%。毫无疑问,英伟达正如箭在弦上,领跑人工智能领域,竞争对手已被甩在身后。英伟达凭借无与伦比的编译器和软件工具优势,能够应对硬件行业的挑战,自然也能推动其软件收入的巨幅增长。富国银行将英伟达目标股价从450美元上调至500美元,贝莱德分析师则将目标价从475美元调高至570美元。摩根士丹利同样持乐观态度,认为大量资金正在流向人工智能领域,英伟达仍是首选。瑞银也上调英伟达目标价,认为其是行业王者,新一轮资本和融资工具追随着人工智能软件和专业云基础设施。一些大型对冲基金纷纷持股英伟达,尽管股价已大幅上涨,但Lone Pine、Third Point、Viking和D1 Capital等基金依然在第二季度首次购入英伟达的股票。

目前英伟达的隐忧也十分显而易见,那就是供应不足,后来者带来的竞争会越来越激烈。随着需求进一步增长,英伟达面临供应短缺问题,无法满足客户的芯片需求。英伟达芯片制造的主要供应商中芯国际也陷入困境,无法满足英伟达的订单需求。根据瑞银集团分析师的说法,需求激增已导致英伟达关键H100芯片的交付周期推迟半年以上。此外,英伟达还需应对激烈的半导体行业竞争。尽管英伟达凭借在人工智能领域的早期投资建立了领先优势,但行业环境中没有绝对的安全。英特尔就是一个警示,任何行业的领先地位要保持住都是相当困难的。这也迫使本周英伟达的财报只许满足外界的高预期而容不得有瑕疵,让我们拭目以待。免责声明:GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Xavier Zhang
August 21, 2023
Forex
GO Markets wins in the Global Forex Awards - Retail

GO Markets has won three awards in this year’s Global Forex Awards; Best Forex Fintech Broker - Global Best Forex Trading Support - Asia Most Trusted Broker - Europe The Global Forex Awards recognise forex and related businesses from around the world, “who are pushing the boundaries of innovation in retail forex trading solutions.” GO Markets COO & Director Khim Khor said, “We are very pleased to receive these 3 awards, which recognise the efforts our business is making to constantly improve our services globally. At GO Markets, we are committed to providing outstanding trading experience and customer service to all our clients globally. Being recognized as the Best Forex Fintech Broker also highlights our dedication to innovation and progression.

We hope these awards will help to solidify our market position as the most trusted global broker." Hosted by Holiston Media, the awards are now in their fifth year. With 58 categories, the awards highlight those businesses at the forefront of cutting-edge technology, low-cost trading, comprehensive market research tools, advanced educational programs and world-class customer service for direct to consumer/trader businesses. “Well done to each and every one of this year’s winners. They have proven they are at the very top of their game in the global forex retail industry.

The Global Forex Awards 2022 - Retail are a true benchmark for success that will not only impress potential new customers, but will also boost existing client comfort and loyalty, ” said Mike Boydell, Director of Holiston Media. GO Markets Global Head of Operations, Yaazdee Jaunbocus, accepted the awards at a celebration in Cyprus last week. “It’s fantastic to see GO Markets recognised on a global stage, with acknowledgement of our customer support and trustworthiness as a business; two areas in particular that we focus a lot of our attention on. It was a pleasure to attend the awards ceremony last week and accept these awards on GO Markets’ behalf,” said Yaazdee.

Learn more about the Global Forex Awards here.

GO Markets
August 21, 2023
经济动态
巴菲特的选择,是否意味着这是房地产的好年?

热门话题相信看新闻的朋友,最近应该都注意到了,伯克希尔公司在本年二季度新建了3只地产建筑商的股票,其中主要是对全美市场份额最大的霍顿公司(D.R. Horton, 股票代码:DHI)加仓了600万股,持股市值达7.26亿美元。这是一家在加息年涨幅达35%的地产股!大众的通常理解是,在加息周期下,高杠杆的房地产公司要承受融资成本的增加,会导致连环的对企业销售盈利不利的情况。比如,高贷款利率增加购房者的利息支出,将减少购房需求,影响房屋销售;同时有库存积压风险;还可能导致项目开发成本上升,项目被推迟或中止,降低投资回报率。看起来都是利空地产建筑商的,但是为何巴菲特却在这时投资该行业和霍顿呢?

直接先告诉你答案,供需关系才是决定因素。新屋市场销售逆势上升,美国的住宅建筑商公司随着利率上升,今年股价却持续创新高。巴菲特这是对美国房地产的押注!首先,我们要了解下美国住房贷款市场的特殊性,和澳洲最多3年的固定利率相比,美国最长可以做到长达30年的固定利率房贷。之所以这样,是自2008年金融危机后政策改革的结果,而现在绝大多数居民选择的贷款类型就是这种30年的固定期限的低利率贷款。根据房地美公布,截至8月,此类房贷评级利率升至6.9%,远高于去年同期的4.99%。另外有机构统计数据显示,目前市场超过1/4的房贷都是在2021年以平均2.8%的利率水平发放的,超过4%利率水平的人群也不超过30%。因此,已经买了房的业主,在目前的高利率环境下是不会轻易出售成屋的,下图的近5年二手房市场销量可以反应这一现象,尤其是2022年开始的数量急剧下跌特别明显。

与旧房市场冰火两重天的是新屋市场。如开头所述,高利率环境下,房企开发项目的借贷成本本来就高,加上原材料涨价,疫情后就开始持续的劳动力短缺,都导致了新屋供应不足的情况。此时,新屋的销售数据就很有说服力,下图可以看到,自2020年9月左右开始,成本上升导致新屋价格不断攀升,在有旧屋供应支持下,新屋销量下跌。但是等到去年加息周期开启,需求不变情况下,旧屋市场急冻,新屋市场转为上行。在通胀今年以来逐步下降,劳动力相对缓解后,新屋供给增加,新屋价格也开始回落一部分,销量也得到提升。所以,这些因素都在利好开发新屋的房地产建筑商,尤其是2022年的8-10月价格和销量拐点到来后。你说巧不巧,霍顿公司的股价就是在去年的6-10月触底的,后面就是一轮暴力的拉升,今年至今涨幅超35%。

DHI股价周图

文章结尾,我们可以从宏观上总结下。那就是,高利率加息对美国的住宅市场冲击有限,地产建筑商发展前景向好。与脆弱的商业地产相比,本轮住宅市场价格下跌仅为个位数,新屋销量创近两年新高,楼市表现好于预期。需求面,劳动力市场火热,居民收入增加,住房负担能力提升。长期供应面,相关数据显示,2015-2021年,美国住房增加了约630万套,但美国家庭数量共增加了790万户,该国长期存在住房供应不足现象。所以,预计供求关系将继续支撑房地产市场,也会限制房价的下行空间。另外,历史表明,以1995年、2000年和2018年为例,房价往往会在一个加息周期结束后上涨,房产建筑商的股价表现也会再上一个阶梯。免责声明:GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Jack Lin | GO Markets 新锐分析师

Jack Lin
August 18, 2023
Trading strategies
Psychology
Market responses to actual versus consensus numbers in data releases

As traders and investors one of the important facts you need to get to grips with is the difference between Consensus (sometimes termed “expected”) and actual data. Variations in these can have a profound impact on asset prices and so are often part of your decision-making. In financial markets, the "consensus" refers to the average or median expectation of market analysts, economists, or other experts regarding a specific economic indicator or financial metric, such as corporate earnings, or market data that is indicative of economic growth or contraction.

The "actual data" refers to the real value of that indicator or metric as it is released by the relevant source, such as a government agency or a company. The market response to the difference between consensus and actual data can vary significantly and depends on several factors: Surprise Factor: The extent to which the actual data differs from the consensus is often referred to as the "surprise." If the actual data is significantly different from the consensus, it can lead to a stronger market response. A larger surprise could result in more pronounced market movements.

Direction of Surprise: Whether the actual data is better or worse than the consensus also matters. For example, if economic data is better than expected it might lead to positive share market reactions, as it indicates a healthier economy. Conversely, worse-than-expected data could lead to negative market reactions.

However, it is worth pointing out that this is a little simplistic, as it is the reality that different asset classes may respond in contrary directions. A prime example of this would be data that impacts positively on the USD (e.g. higher than expected interest rate decision), is likely to have the opposite impact on gold price. Importance of the Indicator: Some economic indicators have a more significant impact on market sentiment and investor behaviour than others.

For example, employment numbers, GDP growth, and central bank interest rate decisions are typically closely watched and can trigger significant market movements. Conversely, auto sales numbers as an example. are less likely to impact on the market overall but may impact primary on car manufacturers. Most economic calendars have a grading of market sensitivity to data to help the trader.

Underlying Market Sentiment: Market sentiment, which includes factors like investor psychology, risk appetite, and current trends, can influence how traders and investors react to economic data releases. Positive sentiment might mitigate negative reactions to negative surprises, or vice versa. You may hear some market commentators refer to ‘good news’ really being ‘bad news’ for the market.

For example, in an interest rate sensitive environment, strong jobs data, although logically one would assume is good news may mean it is more likely that a central bank is in a more favourable position to raise rates and therefore may have a negative impact on the stock market. Economic Context: Related to the above the broader economic and geopolitical context also plays a role. Market participants might interpret data differently based on prevailing economic conditions, global events, or the current stage of the business cycle.

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Impact: The immediate market response to data releases can be volatile and short-lived. However, if the data implies a shift in the underlying economic trajectory, it might have longer-term effects on market trends.

Therefore, if a longer-term investor rather than short term trader you will view economic data releases very differently. Sector and Asset Class: Different sectors and asset classes can react differently to economic data releases. For example, currency markets will be particularly sensitive to central bank decisions and interest rate expectations (or those data points which may influence such decisions e,g, jobs data), while equity markets although may fluctuate significantly to the same data are likely to react more strongly to corporate earnings reports.

In summary, the actual market response can include fluctuations in stock prices, bond yields, currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and more. Rapid and significant market movements can occur within seconds of a data release, but these may be short lived. As a trader/investor, recognising that data is unpredictable, there is two key tactics to employ, namely: Ensure you have access to and use an economic data calendar and know earnings dates of stocks you are in, so you have awareness of significant data releases prior to these happening.

This means you are able to make judgments about any potential risk management actions you should take. As part of your decision-making process make a judgment as to the potential degree to which data may have on your open positions and take remedial action as required, including portfolio balancing and appropriate position adjustment. We always discuss the potential and actual impact of economic data both before and after release at our daily LIVE update webinar sessions.

You are very welcome to join us every lunchtime (AEST) to get the latest events that may impact on your decision making. Check out our Education Hub for more information. (Keywords: Market data, economic data.)

Mike Smith
August 18, 2023