市场资讯及洞察

On Thursday last week, the US Federal Reserve met general market expectations by hiking rates by 25bps, taking interest rates in the US to 5.00%. While there was some speculation over a possible slowdown in the rate hikes due to the banking crisis, the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hike rates for the ninth consecutive time saw the DXY spike down to test the round number support level of 102. During the press conference, Chair Powell indicated that the FOMC was committed to bringing inflation down to its target level of 2-3% but also warned that there was still significant downside risk to growth.

The DXY consolidated briefly along the 102 key support level but saw a strong correction to the upside toward the end of the week. Currently, the momentum to the upside on the DXY has been halted by the 103.50 resistance level which coincides with a confluence of Fibonacci Retracement levels of 50% in the shorter term and 38.2% from the longer term downtrend. With the US Final GDP q/q and the Core PCE Price index, due to be released this week, with the data expected to signal a slowdown in inflation growth which could reignite the speculation of a slowdown in future rate hikes.

Therefore, if the price maintains below the 103.50 resistance level, the DXY could reverse and continue with the downtrend, to retest the 102 key support level. If the price breaks below 102 the next key support level is at 100.80.

Bank of England Headline February inflation in the UK came at a hotter than expected 10.4%, well above the consensus of a drop to 9.9% and indicating that Januarys dip to 10.1% seems to have been temporary. Unwelcome news for the BoE who have a rate meeting today, before this figure the decision seemed to be on a knife edge, with the markets pricing in a 50-50 chance of a 25bp hike or a hold, those odds have since blown out to make a hike pretty much a done deal with the market pricing in a 90% chance that the BoE will keep the tightening process going. The big change in hike expectations can be seen below, in the Pre CPI vs the Post CPI figures This unsurprisingly saw the GBPUSD rally sharply as the markets repriced the BoE’s actions today, interestingly we can see that the reaction, though a decent move was dwarfed by the volatility seen during and post the FOMC rate decision in this pair.

The UK being a world financial hub means the GBP is especially risk sensitive to financial conditions, whether that is global interest rates, banking stress or threats of global growth slowdowns, the actions of the BoE, while still important have taken a seat to these more macro drivers. With all this in mind the probable 25bp rate hike today will more than likely have a muted first effect on the GBP, the accompanying statement and the voting pattern of the MPC member will be what GBP traders are looking at to get some direction for the session. With the shock of the inflation beat fresh in their minds it’s hard to see the BoE being too dovish but against the current uncertainty in the financial markets I don’t think we’ll see any sustained rally of the GBP after the fact unless there is a real hawkish surprise from the BoE members.

Swiss National Bank Up until recently the SNB meetings have been almost as boring as the Bank of Japan meetings, this has all changed as BoJ the meetings have thrown up surprises and todays SNB against the backdrop of the collapse of Credit Suisse could actually be interesting. The markets are pricing in a 50bp hike from the SNB, despite Swiss banking woes it would be a big surprise if they didn’t go through with this, inflation is rising in Switzerland (jumping unexpectedly to 3.4% last month) and they are a long way behind the curve in respects to other Central Banks with their official rate only sitting at 1%, far behind their peers in Europe and the US. Again the interesting part will be the statement and press conference, where the focus will likely remain on interest rate policy and the banking sector.

CHF may strengthen on the decision but with major support on the USDCHF around the 0.9094 level, any downside on this pair should be limited. The SNB decision is due out at 08:30 GMT with the BoE following at 12:00 GMT

The NZDUSD has been on a decline since the start of February 2023, with the price reversing strongly from the high of 0.6540 ending the previous week bouncing off the 200-day moving average and previous swing low price level of 0.6190. This week, we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) due to release their interest rate decision. Current annual inflation in New Zealand stands at a three-decade high of 7.2%, while the quarter-on-quarter data released in January signaled slightly higher than expected CPI growth at 1.4% (Forecast: 1.3%).

This has led the market to anticipate that the RBNZ is likely to hike rates by 50bps, taking rates from 4.25% to 4.75%. If the RBNZ does increase rates by 50bps as expected, this is likely to further strengthen the New Zealand dollar, especially as the NZDUSD had found strong support along the 200-day moving average on Friday. In addition to the interest rate decision possibly driving prices higher, price action on the NZDUSD has also formed a Bullish Regular Divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the support level, indicating a further likelihood for the NZDUSD to stage a reversal, to trade higher.

However, for a sustained move to the upside, the price of the NZDUSD would have to break above the near-term resistance area at 0.6270, which also aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Look for the NZDUSD to rise toward the key resistance and round number level of 0.64, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

After 10 hikes on the trot and what will no doubt be a relief for mortgage holders the RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. The rate decision was fully priced in by the futures markets, so no great surprise on the actual decision, it’s the accompanying statement where investors look for clues as to future RBA actions that will set the short to mid-term tone of the FX and Equity markets. The statement did leave the door open for further rate hikes with the line “further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target” indicating to the market to not take for granted that Australian rates have peaked just yet.

Though there was a subtle word change from the previous March statement which traders saw as a dovish sign. Tha March statement said “ will be needed” which has change to “ may well be needed” A small difference, but a huge clue in the arcane skill of deciphering Central Bank communications. The AUDUSD behaved fairly predictably, a knee jerk drop on the actual rate announcement, followed by a step retrace as the machines and humans took few seconds to decide whether the statement was hawkish or not, before deciding on the “not” and seeing the AUDUSD resume its downtrend.

The ASX 200 index saw a mirror reaction to the AUD with the difference being the initial spike was not retraced, showing that equity traders were happy with the RBA taking their foot off the accelerator, even if it just temporary. One thing to remember that the AUD normally trades as a proxy for global growth risk, ebbing and flowing on risk sentiment any moves from this decision could be short lived as other market forces take over.

World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.

EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.

Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.

The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.

Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.