市场资讯及洞察
The longest government shutdown in US history has finally ended after 42 long days.
After a month and a half of political theatre, seven Democrats and one independent broke ranks and voted with Republicans to pass a stopgap measure. The Senate went 60-40, the House followed 222-209, and Trump signed it hours later.
The legislation includes three-year appropriations for the Agriculture Department, FDA, military construction, veterans affairs, and congressional operations, along with restoration of pay for federal workers and reversal of Trump administration layoffs through January.
However, the most contentious issue, healthcare subsidies, has been kicked down the road to a December Senate vote.
COVID-era ACA subsidies expire at year-end. When they do, premiums for the average subsidised household will more than double from $888 to $1,904 per year, with an estimated 3.8 million people losing coverage entirely.
If the December vote fails, which is likely considering how far apart the two parties are on the topic, we could see a new shutdown begin in January.
What Happens Next?
This Week:
- Federal employees return to work.
- Paychecks start flowing again.
- SNAP benefits get restored for 42 million people, though heating assistance won't come back for weeks.
- National parks reopen.
- Airports start to go back to normal.
December:
- Senate votes on healthcare subsidies. It will probably fail.
- Premium notices continue to be sent showing 2026 costs doubling.
January 30:
- Government funding expires.
- We do this whole thing over, except now the healthcare subsidies have already expired.
- If Republicans and Democrats remain divided on budget priorities, another shutdown will likely begin.
By the Numbers:
Over the past 42 days, approximately 750,000 federal workers have been furloughed. Another two million worked without pay. Over 42 million had their food assistance delayed. And the FAA cut flights by 10% because air traffic controllers stopped showing up to work.
Further concern is the "data blackout" that has hampered Federal Reserve decision-making. Key economic indicators, including jobs reports, were suspended, leaving the Fed blind during an active rate-cutting cycle.
Meanwhile, separate analyses from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed layoffs surged 183% in October, which would make it the worst October for jobs since 2003.
The Bottom Line
Today’s deal ended the shutdown, but it didn’t actually solve anything. The deal essentially kicks the can down the road to January while leaving the healthcare crisis unresolved.
With both parties divided on healthcare and spending priorities, and Trump lacking a comprehensive plan to address rising premiums and high deductibles, a resolution in the December vote seems unlikely.
If no compromise is accepted by the time Government funding expires on January 30, another shutdown is almost inevitable.
Impact of Australian Jobs Reports and U.S. Shutdown End on the Aussie
On the 9th of March 2023, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its monetary policy decision to keep rates at 4.50%. In the accompanying statement, the BoC indicated that it expected pressures in product and labour markets to ease as inflation growth signaled a slowdown. It also highlighted that while the BoC was assessing the impact of past interest rate hikes, it would be ready to hike rates again if required to bring inflation down to the 2% target level.
The Candian Median CPI y/y is expected to be released at 4.8% (Previous 5.0%) while Trimmed CPI y/y is expected at 4.9% (Previous 5.1%). If the inflation data is released as expected or lower, this could see the Canadian dollar weaken briefly as the likelihood of future rate hikes from the BoC diminishes. However, the directional bias of the USDCAD would be heavily dependent on the volatility of the DXY.
As the USDCAD trades within a symmetrical triangle pattern, the release of the CPI data could see breakout potential in either direction. If the price trades higher beyond 1.3750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level could see the USDCAD resume with the uptrend to retest the key resistance level of 1.3860. Alternatively, if the CPI data signals increasing inflation growth, the USDCAD could break the support level of 1.3660 and trade significantly lower, down toward the 1.35 key support level, especially if the DXY continues to weaken.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) announced its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2022 before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The American software company reported revenue of $4.433 billion, falling slightly short of Wall Street forecast of $4.438 billion. Earnings per share reported at $3.40 per share for the quarter, above analyst estimate of $3.345 per share. ''Fueled by our ground-breaking technology, track record of creating and leading categories and consistent execution, Adobe delivered another record quarter,'' Shantanu Narayen, chairman and CEO of Adobe said in a press release. ''Adobe achieved record revenue and strong profitability in the quarter, demonstrating that our products are mission-critical to individuals, small businesses and the world’s largest enterprises,'' said Dan Durn, executive vice president and CFO of the company. ''Our operational rigor combined with our strong engine of innovation are driving growth across our platforms and will fuel future growth as the digital economy continues to expand,'' Durn added.
The company repurchased approximately 5.1 million shares during the quarter. Adobe also announced that it has entered into final stages to acquire Figma, a web-first collaborative design platform for around $20 billion in cash and stock. ''Adobe’s greatness has been rooted in our ability to create new categories and deliver cutting-edge technologies through organic innovation and inorganic acquisitions,'' ''The combination of Adobe and Figma is transformational and will accelerate our vision for collaborative creativity,'' Shantanu Narayen commented on the acquisition of Figma. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) chart Shares of Adobe were down by around 15% on Thursday, trading at $313.35 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -29.45% 3 months -15.16% Year-to-date -45.38% 1 year -53.43% Adobe price targets UBS $415 Stifel $500 Baird $450 Deutsche Bank $500 Wells Fargo $425 Mizuho $480 Citigroup $388 Barclays: $440 Adobe is the 70 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $144.34 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
热门话题三星的新旗舰手机S23来了，是不是能给我们一些惊喜呢？
有一说一，近年来，我发现周围用三星手机的朋友可是越来越少了，其中不乏发生了很多负面的消息。其中包括：爆炸门事件：2016年，三星Galaxy Note 7智能手机因电池过热引发爆炸事件，引起全球关注。此次事件对三星的声誉造成了很大的损失，不仅造成了巨额的经济损失，还导致三星在智能手机市场上的竞争地位受损。市场份额下降：随着苹果、华为等品牌的崛起，三星的市场份额逐渐下降。尤其是在中国市场，三星的市场份额一度被华为、小米等本土品牌所超越。领导层危机：2017年，三星电子前副会长李在镕因受贿罪被判入狱，引起了公司领导层的危机。环境污染：2019年，三星被曝出在中国的生产工厂存在环境污染问题，引起了社会的广泛关注。三星随后表示将采取措施加强环境保护。这些负面消息不断的使得三星出现不好的声誉，再加上其生产的芯片的芯片一直以高发热和拉胯的功耗著称，也不断遭到了竞争对手台积电的打压，在2022年，大部分的大厂都选择使用台积电的工艺而放弃让三星代工，无疑也是对其有很大的影响。再者，三星的服务近年来也是被消费者诟病，维修售后也曾遭遇过集体诉讼。还有就是在近几年，手机竞争力不强的情况下，还都保持了很高的价格，性价比问题也是较为突出的问题。到了S23了，2023年了，三星这代，是不是会给我们一些惊喜呢？首先就是相机部分，近些年来大家手机相机都很卷啊，这次配置1200万像素超广角、两个1000万像素长焦镜头以及最重磅的2亿像素广角主摄的四摄组合。那么体现在在相片上也是表现不错的，对比Iphone 14 pro来说在相片水平是各有千秋，但是视屏方面，比起苹果阵营来说还是有不小的差距。然后通话质量其实也是一个亮点，在吵闹的环境中，仍然发挥了不俗的降噪功能，然而人声又不是非常的不真实，是我很喜欢的一个点。接下来就是重头戏了，芯片。这次三星S23搭载的定制的骁龙8gen2 for Galaxy，是用的台积电的4nm技术，哎？感觉这代的功耗稳了。其实不使用自家的生产的芯片也是有迹可循的，在今年四月，三星直接公开将要削减其NAND 和 DRAM 内存芯片的产量。这就对了嘛，以其花费时间资源不讨好，还不如直接用台积电技术来的快。那么骁龙8gen2 for Galaxy 定制版和原版有什么区别呢，之前笔者有文章写过，骁龙8 gen2 这个怪兽无限缩小了安卓和苹果在手机端处理器的差距。而这个定制版其实也就是有一些超频，实测下来其实跑分和测试差距和原版差距其实不大。用多一点点的功耗，换多一点点的性能。最后就是大家关注的散热问题，测试下来，虽然号称这次S23系列散热着巨大的改良（好吧对标以前的机型的确是散热进步不少），但是对标其他用了骁龙8gen2的机器来说，还是有些差距的，希望三星之后多多努力啦。虽然三星近年来被诟病问题不小，但是其财报显示销售额和净利润都在逐年上涨，近三年的净利润增长更是达到了21.32%，50.41%，39.46%。和国内百花齐放的情况不同，其中三星在波兰的市场渗透率已经接近了30%。
（Source：Factset）从手机市场份额图我们也可以看出，三星近年来基本上维持在20%左右，基本上还是稳居市场份额的前2，不容忽视。特别是欧洲地区，其实对于手机的选择，苹果和三星加起来占据了半壁江山。这也不难理解，三星虽然性价比不高，但是销售额和净利润还是在蹭蹭蹭的上涨。其次就是手机或者平板电脑只是占三星收入占比的20左右，其中还有半导体业务（包括DRAM和NAND闪存芯片），显示器和数字媒体业务，，消费电子业务（包括电视、家用电器、笔记本电脑等），IT和移动通信设备业务（包括笔记本电脑和网络设备），其他业务（包括金融、生命科学、化学等），因此，多路开花的情况下，也造就了三星“异常”漂亮的财报。
（Source：Counterpoint）从股价来看，目前三星的股价也是处于一个上升通道当中，目前处于上升通道的上沿，下方均线有明显的支撑力。入场的话，可以参考均线位置入场，整体表现强劲。
（Source：Tradingview）从财报和技术面来看，目前三星是属于一个很健康，很强劲的状态。评级的话，买入和持有评级也占据了大部分。多名分析师的平均目标价位估计在78247.4左右，是属于一个非常乐观的情绪。
（Source：Factset）虽然在市面上三星的风评不是很好，但是从财报数据和股价上来说充满了机会，也希望三星在未来可以给客户提供更多高性价比的产品。如果您有其他想法，欢迎和我们进行沟通交流。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 分析师
热门话题4月11日，澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤和贸易部长唐·法雷尔日宣布，同意暂停就中国对澳大利亚大麦征收关税向世界贸易组织提出的申诉，中国政府同意在未来三到四个月快速评估这一关税问题。这标志着中澳这两个曾经的主要贸易合作伙伴关系开始改善。澳大利亚和中国之间从2020年新冠疫情以来贸易和外交关系紧张。在澳大利亚要求对新冠病毒的起源进行调差后，北京方面对澳大利亚开展贸易制裁，对澳大利亚葡萄酒和大麦征收反倾销税。2020年下半年以来，中国对澳大利亚七种产品实施禁运，包括葡萄酒、大麦、木材、龙虾等，涉及的商品总价值高达60亿澳元。前总理莫里森领导的上一届联邦政府在2021年向WTO提起申诉。按照原定计划，WTO将在未来几天对这一争端做出裁决。此外，备注关注的红酒市场也迎来希望，澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤进一步表示，预计在葡萄酒关税争端中也有望取得利好的商谈结果。
大麦市场2020年5月，中国决定向澳大利亚大麦征收近80%的关税，征收期间为5年，这导致价值15亿澳元的大麦贸易产业陷入瘫痪。澳大利亚是大麦的主要出口国，它供应了全球30%-40%的酿造大麦出口，和20%的饲料大麦出口。澳大利亚每年生产略高于 900 万吨的大麦1，其中约 70% 用于出口。自2015至2018年，中国一直是澳大利亚最大的大麦出口市场，这些大麦大多被用于啤酒酿造。自从中国对澳大利亚大麦征收高额关税后，进口量就急转直下。到了2022财年，澳大利亚大麦几乎已经“退出”了中国市场。澳大利亚目前主要向沙特阿拉伯、日本、越南、泰国、科威特、菲律宾、阿拉伯联合酋长国。对澳大利亚大麦征收80.5%的关税也将迫使中国买家转向其他来源的啤酒大麦。目前中国主要从加拿大进口大麦，与使用澳大利亚大麦获得的回报相比产品回报率较低。
红酒市场自2021年3月以来，中国对澳大利亚进口的瓶装葡萄酒，征收116%至218%的关税，征收期限五年。征收关税后的2021年，根据澳大利亚葡萄酒协会的数据，澳大利亚出口中国的葡萄酒销售额暴跌了97%，仅有2400万澳元。在征收关税之前，澳大利亚葡萄酒的年销售额曾达到13亿的高峰， 2022年则只有1240万。本次贸易缓和信号，为澳大利亚价值455亿澳元的葡萄酒行业带来了希望，该行业涵盖了从葡萄种植、葡萄酒酿造到销售、酒庄接待和旅游等各个方面。
中澳双方利益去年底，中国结束了长达三年的新冠“清零”政策，但经济增速仍然未能回归疫情前水平。而中国作为澳洲最大的贸易伙伴，即便澳洲寻求向其他国出口，但其地位也难以被替代。无需WTO仲裁而达成双方利益，这是中国与澳大利亚都希望看到的结局。而在取消贸易限制方面，肯定也不会一蹴而就。北京政府方面表示会“缓慢”且“分阶段”进行。实质上自从澳大利亚中左翼工党去年在澳大利亚获胜以来，中澳紧张关系局势就有所缓和的迹象。去年12月，澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤在北京会见了中国外交部长王毅，这是自2019年以来澳大利亚外交部长首次访问中国。投资面消息公布当日，在中国消费者中大受欢迎的高端豪华葡萄酒品牌奔富葡萄酒母公司澳洲主要酿酒商富邑葡萄酒集团（Treasury Wine Estates）的股价涨4.76%，澳大利亚最大的谷物生产商Graincorp涨1.31%，农药制造商Nufarm涨幅1.05%，农业综合企业Elders涨1.32%。
本次贸易协商传达了积极的信号，进一步来看，未来价值141亿的澳大利亚的煤炭贸易，价值超过7.5亿澳元的龙虾贸易等都有希望迎来转机，从而利好相关投资机会。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师
热门话题近期，黄金价格再次上涨，现货黄金价格在本月5日的交易中上涨至每盎司2032美元，接近其在2020年达到的历史最高价2073美元，随后又在6日的交易中小幅回落，而市场预期该贵金属将保持其吸引力。黄金不仅拥有贵金属的商品属性，还具有金融属性（包括货币属性、投资属性和避险属性等）。本文来盘点一下为何黄金价格上行以及影响未来走势的因素在哪里？黄金上涨原因首先，最大的因素便是市场的避险情绪，黄金作为金融属性极强的金属，由于美欧银行业危机尚未解决，避险情绪逐渐加强。美联储抬高利率可能对商业银行的资产端和负债端造成损失，其中包括存款流失。继硅谷银行、签名银行陆续破产后，瑞信也出现了危机，推高了市场的避险情绪，也进一步推高了黄金价格。此外，像俄乌战争等国际政治地缘事件也是推升恐慌情绪的因素之一。
其次，全球央行的持续购入黄金也给黄金在需求端一定的价格增长动力，世界黄金协会公布的最新数据显示，在去年净购入黄金1136吨，创下1950年以来的最高年度购金规模后，今年1月全球央行继续净买入77吨黄金，较去年12月环比大涨192%。保值外汇储备资产、规避金融市场波动风险、避免地缘政治风险、金融制裁风险，以及稳定本国货币汇率等成为全球央行购入黄金的主要原因。此外，美元的走弱也成为助推黄金价格的因素之一。在我们前几期关于黄金的文章中提到过，长期来看，黄金价格与美国十年期国债收益率以及美元指数呈反向关系，而与恐慌指数呈现正向关系。黄金以美元计价，美元走弱，黄金便相对走强。美联储为了稳定通胀一直在加息，造成了一些银行的破产，这也进一步影响了美联储原定的加息节奏，市场认为美国将暂缓加息甚至开启降息时代，美元指数的下跌便会推升黄金价格的上涨。
回顾近期美国宏观数据最近美国的宏观数据表现不佳。3月份，美国ISM制造业和服务业PMI分别下降至46.3和51.2，均低于预期和前值。制造业PMI创下2020年5月以来的最低水平，服务业需求也出现下降，这导致物价压力缓解。然而，服务业仍处于扩张区间。在就业市场方面，2月职位空缺数量超预期回落至993万人，企业招聘需求也减少。3月ADP新增就业14.5万，低于预期，3月非农新增就业23.6万，与预期相差不大。新增就业主要集中在休闲与住宿、专业及商业服务、教育与医疗行业和政府部门。随着就业市场需求的降温，非农新增就业均值呈现下行趋势。本周关注重点重点关注本周公布的美国CPI和零售销售数据。美联储永久票委威廉姆斯将参加经济讨论会，周三早晨还将有三位美联储23年票委发表讲话。此外，本周美联储将公布3月货币政策会议纪要。短期内，美元指数和美债收益率面临反弹压力，可能对黄金施加下行压力，但市场的回调买盘心态将限制黄金的下跌空间，叠加对美联储货币政策的预期以及市场恐慌情绪，黄金仍有上涨潜力。
免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yiduo Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师
Salesforce financial results announced Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its latest financial results for its fiscal second quarter on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.72 billion (up 22% year-over-year) vs. $7.692 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $1.19 per share for the quarter vs. $1.03 per share expected. ''We had another strong quarter, with revenue of $7.7B growing 22% year-over-year and 26% in constant currency, showing yet again the durability of our business model,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''And, we’re thrilled to initiate our first-ever share repurchase program to continue to deliver incredible value to our shareholders on our path to $50 billion in revenue in FY26,'' Benioff added. ''Our results demonstrate the strength and diversity of our product portfolio across regions, industries and segments,'' said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. ''In this more measured buying environment, our Customer 360 portfolio is even more strategic and relevant as our customers focus on productivity, efficiency and time to value,'' Taylor concluded.
The company expects revenue of $7.82 to $7.83 billion for the fiscal third quarter Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) chart The stock was up by 2.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $180.19 a share. The stock fell by around 5% in the after-hours due to future outlook. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -0.16% 3 months +12.75% Year-to-date -29.17% 1 year -30.99% Salesforce price targets Citigroup $189 BMO Capital $223 Mizuho $245 Morgan Stanley $273 Piper Sandler $220 Deutsche Bank $260 JP Morgan $275 Barclays $218 Wells Fargo $235 Salesforce.com Inc. is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $179.10 billion.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap