市场资讯及洞察

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​上周美股表现平稳，道指继续上行了1.78%，纳指比较乏力仅上涨0.72%，标普则中规中矩涨了1.53%。澳股指数则更接近标普走势，上涨了1.51%。板块上下半年来的反弹热点原材料和能源近期上涨无力，特别是新能源锂电池相关的股票，这一点从特斯拉低迷的股价就可以看出来。继美国能源部补助整个锂电池产业链企业后，短期内大规模的股价上涨到了阶段性顶部，因此在中国碳酸锂价格出现小幅回落后各大锂矿商股价下跌明显，但目前供需问题依旧得不到解决，相信回调也是短暂的，2023年锂矿的牛尾巴依旧值得期待。

新的一周重磅消息蜂拥而至，足以左右美国12月股市走向，其核心问题还是对于美国通涨状况的直接预判。周二美联储官员们陆续会发表讲话，这和上周公布的会议纪要有很大不同，因为会议纪要是加息是严谨探讨的记录概要，由于之前CPI回落超过预期加上更主要的核心CPI首次回落，市场从会议纪要中看到了些许鸽派的信号，这也是美联储真实的心理状态。但周二以及周四的官员表态，从布拉德到鲍威尔，无一例外是来强硬表达鹰派立场的，这是美联储的职责，也是美联储的传统。从之前加息周期中为防止市场过热的经验来看，美联储不到通涨确定性可控的情况下，是不会贸然松口的。毕竟通涨还在7.7%的高位，离2%的目标位置相距甚远，市场热度取决于心态，因此从舆论上是必须压制住过早的乐观情绪的。

周三美国将连续公布ADP就业人数，本次预测值又仅有20.3万，远低于前值23.9万，小非农的数据每每都能作为周五大非农数据的前瞻。同样周五的非农数据预估也是仅20万，远远低于前值26.1万，这两个数据很可能是要远高于预期的，因此对股市很大可能是离空的。除去就业数据，周五和非农同时公布的失业率却显得十分合理，上月失业率3.7%超过了预期值，本次预期提高到了3.8%，该数据也是周五最后决定后期美股走向的重磅数据，如果美联储控制了通涨却让失业率失控了，也是严重失职的表现。因此一旦失业率继续上升，美联储将不得不减缓加息节奏，并且对即将上调的加息上限也有很大的影响。

周三紧跟着小非农出炉的，还有美国三季度年化GDP，这将直接指引美元的走势，也是衡量美国经济是否已经进入衰退的关键。预测值增长2.8%超过了前值2.6%，但我们不能忘了上次的2.6%正值是出乎意料的，有很多声音表示是因为计算方式的改变导致数据那么好看。美国再倒推到前两次都是负值，甚至当时已经符合了经济学定义上的经济衰退：连续两季度GDP负值。另外我们从2年期国债收益率和10年期收益率倒挂破纪录的75个点也值得去担心经济衰退或将不可避免。一般以3个月和10年国债收益率倒挂去预判经济衰退，而美国已经进入倒挂状态许久了。周四晚上美国即将公布10月PCE物价指数以及核心PCE物价指数，这也是预测之后公布CPI能否延续大幅回落和核心CPI继续降低的重要前瞻指标。10月PCE物价指数预测值6%，低于前值6.2%达到0.2个百分点，而核心PCE仅预测回落0.1个百分点至5%。无论是否超预期降低，只要两者都有所回落，也将是对股市较大的利好，因为数据公布后几个小时，鲍威尔就要上台发言，其言论力度很大程度上会左右股市走向，也将是市场推测美联储后期动向的关键。

综合上述信息，我深感本周消息对股市影响之大，足以改变未来几个月直到加息达到上限前的市场走势。从个人的一般性预测来看，PCE和核心PCE基本能够符合预期甚至好于预期；GDP有一定的风险，达到2.8%的数据有一些不确定性；ADP和大非农基本不会符合预期，数据大概率会高于预期值较多的比例；而失业率预测值3.8%也变得有较大不确定性。因此本周股市的走向必将变得十分动荡，不仅震幅会远大过上周，方向也会变得扑朔迷离。有大行情就有大机会，如何去把握行情大家就需要做功课了，随着消息的不断出炉，短线顺势小波段机会将非常多，中线单子则不适合盲目入场，控制好整体仓位会显得越发重要。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

The USDCHF has just reached a significant support zone providing a potential entry for a low-risk high return trade. In recent weeks the USD has an aggressive pulled back on the back of weaker then expected inflation figures. This has benefited the CHF and most other non-USD currencies as expectations of a potential pivot grow and money moves away from the Greenback.

From a technical perspective the price of the USDCHF has fallen to its lowest price since August 2022. The price has also largely been in a ranging pattern since 2010 between 1.03436 0.8741. In addition, besides the Covid years, the price has been in a tighter range between 0.94 and 1.03.

The current price zone has been a really important area of support and in the most recent test of this area, in August the price bounced quite strongly. Interestingly, during times of higher market volatility the price extends its lower bound of the range from 0.94 to 0.87. For example, the prices extended its range during the GFC and the Covid pandemic.

However, generally, the pair trades in the tighter range. Therefore, as it is arguable if the current market conditions represent volatility as sinister as the GFC or the Pandemic this current price action lends itself to a potential bounce over a further sell off. The bounce is also supported by the RSI which is not just oversold but showing the potential for a divergence.

With the price at an ideal entry point, it allows for a high potential risk reward trade. The trade’s target is 1.0075 as seen on the price chart.

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相信大家都有过和客服斗智斗勇的经历。那么以前是和人斗智斗勇，现在变成了和机器，情况如何呢？

前段时间发生一件很“有趣”的事情，就是我在邮局寄了一个包裹，但是很久过去了，网络上还是查不到有用信息，只是现实在某天寄出，就没有了下文。那么针对这个情况，我比较担心包裹是否有丢失的情况，但是有没有时间亲自跑去邮局一趟，于是我就打电话给邮局，想找个人工客服来问问情况。但是当我打电话过去的时候让我大受震撼，对面的客服是一个纯AI的客服，也就是人工智能客服，于是本着好奇的原则，就和AI交流了下，看看能不能帮我解决问题，但是在一番对话后我发现，绕了半天，对方只会做一些重复性并且机械的回答，于是在焦急战胜了兴趣后，我还是选择和AI客服书说，我想找个活人聊聊。之后就转人工客服了。然而这个事还没完，转人工客服让我等待了接近半个小时，才说上话，然后进行交涉后，才解决了问题。

和周围人吐槽这个事情后才发现，并不只是我一个人遇到AI客服的时候感觉到有些浪费时间，而且这个问题，也已经存在了好几年了。其实非人工客服已经存在很久了，但是真正开始大量实行是在2018年前后。在那个时期开始，大数据分析，Al算法，也是芯片正式进入7nm工艺的时间点。突如起来的科技进步，大量的新型技术氤氲而生。从那时起，AI客服开始大量进入人们的视野。不仅仅是我，应该有不少人都遭受过人工智能客服的摧残。通常来说，我们打电话找客服的目的有两个，第一个就是查询问题，第二个就是解决问题。对于第一个来说，查询问题，AI客服可以很好的帮助到消费者，很大程度上也可以提升效率节约时间，减少成本。但是对于第二个问题，AI客服在目前就很难帮助到大家，反而容易像打太极一样来回绕，有时候不能理解客户问题，有时候本身算法也不支持其帮忙解决这个问题。因此，在现阶段来说，人工客服还是在一定程度上优于AI客服的。但是为什么现在很多公司都在大力使用AI客服呢？其原因有如下几个:第一就是削减成本。培养一个客服，或者是一个客服团队，将会耗费巨大的人力，金钱，时间。在这种情况下，公司的客户服务部门也是最难看到效益的部门，虽然其是必不可少的。在前些年，很多公司未了削减成本，就使用了外包客服团队，虽然减少了成本，但是也造成后很多不好的后果。所以在AI客服出现之后，很多公司就发现，AI客服，可以很大程度上削减成本，更重要的是，可以轻易的做到24小时为客户服务。

第二个原因就是，现在的很多客服越来越模式化。首先礼貌问答，遇到问题，帮您反馈。最后解决方法，给您一个折扣。这样的流程化，逐渐的使得客服逐渐变化为：人工-人工流程-人工智能。因此，不少公司就想到，既然都是流程化的解决问题，那么为什么需要高成本的聘用活人呢？但是，对于消费者来说，AI客服并不一定是个很好的选择。2022年，TechSee一项调查的受访者表示，“43%的人因为糟糕的客户服务而更换产品或取消合同。” 这比 2019 年高出 4%。考虑到人们对聊天机器人的复杂体验，赌注太高了。如果不想和AI客服交流，那就需要花费大量时间进行等待，这也变相增加了客户的时间成本。因此，在进行简单服务的时候，AI客服的确可以增加效率。但是复杂性问题，或者是需要沟通才能解决的问题上，还是人工更胜一筹。

人工智能客服的初衷是增加效率，提高客户满意度的，但是滥用AI客服却会使得客户体验下降，反向提升满意度。综合来说，目前AI客服并不能完全代替人工，希望AI客服可以更进一步，在人工和AI的结合下，可以让客户体验加强的同时，还可以节约成本。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师

Shares of Deere rise as financial results exceed expectations Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced financial results on Wednesday for the fourth quarter that ended on October 30, 2022. The US manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment reported revenue of $15.536 billion for the quarter, which was above analyst forecast of $13.443 billion. Earnings per share reported at $7.44 per share vs. $7.112 per share expected. ''Deere’s strong performance for both the fourth quarter and full year is a tribute to our dedicated team of employees, dealers, and suppliers throughout the world,'' John C.

May, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We’re proud of their extraordinary efforts to overcome supply-chain constraints, increase factory production, and deliver products to our customers,'' he added. The stock was up by around 5% on Wednesday, trading at $441.33. Stock performance 1 month: +12.79% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +67% 1 year: +94% Deere & Company price targets Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Argus Research: $420 Citigroup: $425 Morgan Stanley: $424 Credit Suisse: $447 Wells Fargo: $423 Oppenheimer: $365 Jefferies: $400 JP Morgan: $325 Deere & Company is the 84 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $132.90 billion.

You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Medtronic posts mixed results Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) reported latest financial results for its second quarter of fiscal year 2023, which ended October 28, 2022 on Tuesday. The medical technology company posted mixed results for the quarter. Revenue reported at $7.585 billion (down 3% year-over-year) vs. $7.698 billion expected.

Earnings per share reported at $1.30 per share (down by 2% year-over-year) vs. $1.277 per share estimate. "Slower than predicted procedure and supply recovery drove revenue below our expectations this quarter. We continue to take decisive actions to improve the overall performance of the company, including streamlining our organizational structure, strengthening our supply chain, driving a performance culture, and strategically allocating capital to support our best growth opportunities with the investments they deserve," Geoff Martha, CEO of the company said in press release. "We're seeing the benefit of these changes – along with new incentives and strong execution – in certain businesses, and we're focused on ensuring these efforts translate into improved performance across the company. Looking ahead, we're confident we have a clear path to delivering durable growth and increased shareholder value," Martha concluded.

The stock was down by around 5% on Tuesday at $77.74 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.62% 3 month: -8.79% Year-to-date: -20.45% 1 year: -27.42% Medtronic price targets Barclays: $90 Truist Securities: $89 Mizuho: $100 Jefferies: $87 Morgan Stanley: $97 RBC Capital: $110 Wells Fargo: $96 Stifel: $105 Medtronic is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $109.37 billion. You can trade Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Medtronic Plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The market in recent months has created exceptionally difficult conditions to trade. Low volatility and obscure price action has reduced the volatility available for traders to capitalise on. These conditions have affected FOREX, Equity, and Index trading.

It has been specifically difficult for momentum and trend following traders as a certain level of volatility is needed for trader to return profitable trades. How to spot low volatility The Average True range or ATR range can be an important indicator in determining the level of volatility in a market or asset. It measures the average trading range of a particular asset’s price over a period.

It can exceptionally be helpful in determining how volatile the asset is at a certain point in time, or how volatile an asset is compared to another one. For instance, looking at the ATR for the Dow Jones, it has been getting progressively lower and is at its lowest level since August indicating a reduction in volatility. The Market Volatility Index or the VIX measures volatility across the S&P 500 is also an important indicator to not just gauge market volatility, but also general market sentiment and emotion.

When fear and greed are prominent in the market volatility tends to increase and when they dissipate, they tend to decrease. As the chart shows, volatility has been reducing to levels not seen since the rally in August 2022. The characteristics of the chart are also interesting as the VIX acts much more in waves then other indices do.

How can you optimise your trading during periods of low volatility? Tips for trading in low volatility markets Understand that breakouts will fail. Specifically for traders who like to use strategies based on momentum breakouts, during times of low volatility the price means to stay close to moving averages and mean price points both on an intra and inter day level.

Wait for confirmation before a momentum move. Although breakouts are less common in low volatility markets, they do still occur. In this instance, it is ideal to wait for a confirmation or retest of an important level before entering trades.

Confirmation can be supported by strong candle in support or increased volume. Being patient is essentially in times of low volatility. Opportunities that may have otherwise eventuated.

Utilising volume and strong candlesticks as secondary Price tends to stay close its mean. This means that if a price does break out or break down, the price often swings back to the mean. The mean may be a simple moving average, Volume Weighted Average, or some other measure.

In essence it does not really matter what is used, rather than the price tends to retrace back to the mean in some manner. Therefore, these conditions lend themselves to mean reversion systems or strategies. As seen on the chart below, the price has reverted to the 20-period moving average on multiple occasions.

Using multiple time frame analysis for identifying support and resistance. As previously stated, when there is low volatility, finding real breakouts that will last becomes more difficult. By ensuring that the breakouts or breakdowns in price are occurring across multiple timeframes a trader can enhance their chance of it being sustained as their will likely be a higher level being traded at longer term levels.

Trading can be difficult during periods of low volatility. However, this does not mean traders should not trade. Rather, traders should be aware of potential obstacles and difficulties that may arise and the strategies that can help work though these difficulties.