市场资讯及洞察

昨日（3月25日），市场情绪受到美联储降息预期升温的推动，全球主要股指普遍上涨，市场表现出了一系列值得关注的动态，涵盖股市、外汇、大宗商品等多个领域。1. 美联储政策预期与市场反应近期，美联储官员的讲话释放了更多偏鸽派信号，暗示今年内仍有降息的可能性。市场普遍预计，美联储可能在第三季度开始下调利率，年内或进行2-3次降息。这一预期使得风险资产受到提振，尤其是股票和贵金属市场。与此同时，美元指数在连续上涨后有所回落，非美货币相对走强。美债收益率方面，10年期美债收益率小幅回落，但仍维持在4.2%左右。市场仍在评估美国经济的韧性，以及降息是否会影响通胀预期的稳定。后续的经济数据，包括非农就业报告、核心PCE通胀数据等，将成为影响市场情绪的关键因素。值得注意的是，部分美联储官员仍持谨慎态度，认为通胀虽然有所缓解，但仍未达到可以大规模降息的程度。因此，市场对降息的预期可能会随着数据的变化而调整，短期内仍可能出现波动。2. 美股走势：科技股继续吸引资金流入美股市场在昨日整体走强，标普500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数涨幅接近1%。在市场对降息的预期推动下，成长型股票表现突出，尤其是人工智能和半导体板块。芯片巨头英伟达（NVDA）昨日上涨2.1%，连续多日稳步上行，而微软（MSFT）和谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOGL）也分别上涨1.5%和1.2%。市场对人工智能的长期前景仍持乐观态度，这使得科技股整体表现较为强劲。不过，也有部分分析师指出，科技股短期估值较高，市场可能在未来几个交易日内出现震荡。投资者需要关注美联储的进一步表态以及美国科技公司即将发布的财报，以评估未来走势。此外，标普500指数的市盈率已经达到了相对较高的水平，市场对企业盈利增长的预期较高，但如果企业财报不及预期，可能会导致股价回调。

3. 黄金市场：高位震荡，关注美元走势黄金价格近期维持强势，昨日一度接近每盎司2200美元。市场对美联储降息的预期，使得美元走软，同时也降低了持有黄金的机会成本。若美元指数继续回落，黄金有望延续上涨趋势。不过，短期来看，市场对降息路径仍存分歧，黄金价格可能会在高位震荡整理。若美国经济数据强于预期，黄金可能面临一定回调压力。交易者需要关注美元走势以及全球避险情绪的变化。除了黄金之外，白银近期表现也较为强势，银价同步上涨，市场对贵金属的需求仍然旺盛。此外，部分投资者关注的原油市场同样值得关注，油价近期在每桶80美元附近震荡。供应链的不确定性以及主要产油国的政策变化，可能成为未来油价波动的关键因素。4. 外汇市场：美元回调，非美货币获得支撑外汇市场方面，美元指数昨日回落至103.5附近，主要非美货币普遍上涨。欧元/美元短线突破1.08，英镑/美元在1.26上方震荡，日元兑美元则有所企稳。未来，市场将关注美联储官员的进一步表态，以及美国经济数据的表现。如果数据持续显示通胀放缓，美联储的降息预期将更加明确，可能推动美元继续走弱。相反，若数据强劲，美元可能企稳回升。在亚洲市场方面，人民币兑美元汇率在6.95至7.00区间波动，市场关注中国央行的货币政策导向。如果美联储进入降息周期，可能会对人民币带来一定的支撑。此外，日本央行的政策变化也受到市场关注，日元在经历长期贬值后，未来可能出现更大的波动。

5. 全球市场风险与未来展望 除了美联储政策，市场还关注地缘政治风险、全球供应链状况以及各国央行的政策协调。近期，全球经济增长预期有所上调，但通胀压力依然存在，各国央行在政策制定上仍保持谨慎。当前市场仍然围绕美联储政策变化展开交易。未来几周，市场将重点关注美国核心PCE数据、美联储官员讲话以及各大企业的财报表现。这些因素将直接影响投资者对市场的判断，并可能引发资产价格的进一步波动。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903 作者：Sylvia Qin | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

Introduction in the constant pursuit of market edge, traders often find themselves crowded into the same analytical spaces, watching identical indicators and acting on similar signals. This collective attention of market participants potentially creates a paradox: the more traders follow conventional signals, the less effective these signals become. While price action, volume, moving averages, and oscillators dominate trading screens worldwide, beneath the visible surface of market activity lies a rich ecosystem of "silent indicators" that often telegraph significant moves long before they materialize in price.

The financial markets do not exist as isolated entities for specific assets but rather as an interconnected web where currencies influence commodities, bonds telegraph equity movements as obvious examples. Understanding these cross-market relationships enables traders to assemble a more complete market picture and recognise the early warning signs that often precede major moves. This is not an exhaustive list but aims to cover some of the key factors that also offer an opportunity of accessibility for the retail trader.

I have suggested some sources that may be useful. This article explores these potentially overlooked signals across multiple asset classes, providing traders with a framework to identify market shifts before they become apparent to the majority. Section 1: Institutional Footprints Volume Profile Analysis Core Concept: Volume profile analysis examines how trading volume distributes across price levels rather than just time periods, revealing where significant transactions occurred and potentially where institutional interest exists.

Point of Control Significance: The price level with the highest trading volume (Point of Control) often acts as a magnet during future trading sessions, as this represents the price where most transactions were agreed upon. Volume Nodes and Gaps: Areas with sparse trading volume often become "vacuum zones" where price can move rapidly when entered, while high-volume nodes frequently act as support/resistance. Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView Volume Profile indicator (free/premium) Sierra Chart volume profile tools (subscription) Tradovate volume profile tools (subscription) Open Interest Changes in Futures and Options Core Concept: Open interest represents the total number of outstanding contracts in derivatives markets.

Changes in open interest, when combined with price movement, provide insights into whether new money is entering a trend or positions are being closed. Confirmation Signals: Rising prices with rising open interest confirms bullish momentum (new buyers entering); falling prices with rising open interest confirms bearish momentum (new sellers entering). Warning Signals: Rising prices with falling open interest suggests a weakening trend (shorts covering); falling prices with falling open interest suggests a weakening downtrend (longs liquidating).

Options Open Interest Concentration: Unusual accumulation of open interest at specific strike prices often indicates institutional positioning and can create price magnets or barriers. Retail-Accessible Sources: CME Group open interest data (free) TradingView futures open interest indicators (free/premium) Barchart.com options open interest data (free/premium) CBOE options volume and open interest (free) Commitment of Traders Analysis Core Concept: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report breaks down the holdings of different trader categories (commercial, non-commercial, small speculators) in futures markets, revealing how different market participants are positioned. Commercial vs.

Speculator Divergence: When commercial hedgers (smart money) and speculators (often trend-followers) show extreme position differences, it often signals potential market turning points. Historically Significant Extremes: Comparing current positioning to historical extremes provides context—when any group reaches unusual net long or short positions, mean reversion often follows. Multi-Market Applications: COT data covers currencies, commodities, bonds, and equity index futures, allowing for cross-market analysis and early warning of sentiment shifts.

Retail-Accessible Sources: CFTC COT reports (free, weekly) Investing.com COT data visualizations (free) BarcChart.com COT charts (free/premium) TradingView COT indicators (community scripts, free) Section 2: Sentiment Indicators Beyond the Headlines Market Internals Across Asset Classes Core Concept: Market internals measure the underlying strength or weakness of a market beyond just the headline index price. These include advance-decline lines, new highs vs. new lows, and percentage of assets above moving averages. Breadth Divergences: When market indices make new highs while internals weaken (fewer stocks participating in the advance), it often signals deteriorating market health before price confirms.

Confirming Strength: Strong internals during consolidations or minor pullbacks often indicate underlying buying pressure and increase the probability of continuation. Cross-Asset Applications: This concept applies beyond stocks—measuring the percentage of commodities in uptrends, currencies strengthening against the dollar, or global markets above their moving averages provides comprehensive market health metrics. Retail-Accessible Sources: StockCharts.com market breadth indicators (free/subscription) TradingView breadth indicators (free/premium) Investors.com market pulse data (subscription) DecisionPoint breadth charts (StockCharts subscription) Retail vs.

Institutional Sentiment Divergence Core Concept: When retail traders' sentiment significantly diverges from institutional positioning, the smart money view typically prevails. This divergence creates opportunities for contrarian traders. Retail Sentiment Gauges: Social media sentiment, trading app popularity rankings, and retail-focused brokerage positioning data reveal retail trader enthusiasm.

Institutional Positioning Clues: Fund flow data, professional survey results, and positioning metrics from prime brokers indicate institutional sentiment. Warning Signs: Extreme retail enthusiasm combined with institutional caution often precedes corrections; retail pessimism with institutional accumulation frequently precedes rallies. Retail-Accessible Sources: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (free) TradingView Social Sentiment indicator (free) CNN Fear & Greed Index (free) Volatility Term Structure Core Concept: The volatility term structure shows expected volatility across different time frames.

The relationship between near-term and longer-term volatility expectations provides insights into market stability. Contango vs. Backwardation: Normal markets show higher volatility expectations for longer time frames (contango); inverted term structure (backwardation) signals immediate market stress and often precedes significant moves.

Term Structure Shifts: Sudden changes in the volatility curve often precede major market regime changes, even when the headline volatility index appears stable. Cross-Asset Volatility Comparison: Comparing volatility in related markets (e.g., currency volatility vs. equity volatility) can reveal building stress in one market before it impacts others. Retail-Accessible Sources: CBOE VIX term structure (free) VIX futures curve data on futures exchanges (free) TradingView VIX futures spread indicators (free/premium) LiveVol (CBOE) volatility data (free/subscription) Section 3: Cross-Asset Correlations Currency/Commodity Relationships Core Concept: Specific currency pairs often move in tandem with related commodities due to economic linkages—AUD with iron ore and coal, CAD with oil, NOK with natural gas, etc.

Divergences between the two can signal changing fundamentals. Leading Indicators: Currency moves frequently lead commodity price movements due to currency markets' greater liquidity and sensitivity to changing economic conditions and capital flows. Correlation Breakdowns: When previously correlated assets decouple, it often signals a fundamental shift in market dynamics or the emergence of a new driving factor.

Practical Trading Applications: Monitoring currency moves can provide early warning for commodity traders; likewise, significant commodity price changes may predict currency movements before they occur. Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView correlation indicator (free/premium) Investing.com currency and commodity charts (free) MacroMicro correlation tables (free/subscription) FXStreet correlation tables (free) Real-World Example: A clear illustration occurred in February 2025 when the Australian dollar (AUD) began weakening against major currencies despite stable iron ore prices. Traditionally, these two assets move in tandem due to Australia's position as a major iron ore exporter.

Traders monitoring this relationship noticed the divergence—the currency was signalling weakness while the commodity remained strong. Within three weeks, iron ore prices began a significant decline that the currency had "predicted" through its earlier weakness. Commodity traders who observed this currency leading indicator had already reduced exposure before the commodity price drop materialized.

Bond Market Leading Indicators Core Concept: Fixed income markets often signal economic changes before they appear in other asset classes. Key relationships like yield curve steepness, credit spreads, and bond market volatility frequently lead equity, commodity, and currency moves. Yield Curve Analysis: The relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates reflects economic expectations—flattening/inverting curves often precede economic slowdowns, while steepening curves frequently signal growth and inflation.

Credit Spread Warnings: Widening spreads between government bonds and corporate debt indicate increasing risk aversion; sector-specific spread widening often precedes industry-specific equity weakness. Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): The break-even inflation rate derived from conventional Treasuries and TIPS reveals market inflation expectations, often leading commodity price trends. Retail-Accessible Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) yield curve data (free) Bond charts and indicators (most CFD trading platforms) Investing.com bond market data (free) Koyfin yield curve visualization (free/subscription) Real-World Example: In mid-2024, while most equity markets were still rallying, high-yield corporate bond spreads began widening subtly against Treasury bonds.

This credit spread expansion wasn't making headlines, but traders monitoring these relationships noted the growing risk aversion in fixed income markets. Within six weeks, this "silent indicator" from the bond market manifested in equity markets as increased volatility and sector rotation away from higher-risk growth stocks. Traders who recognized this early warning sign had already adjusted their equity exposure and positioned defensively before the shift became obvious in stock prices.

Dollar Index Correlations Core Concept: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strong inverse relationships with many asset classes. Understanding dollar strength or weakness provides context for moves in commodities, emerging markets, and multinational companies.

Commodity Price Impacts: Most commodities are priced in dollars, creating an inherent inverse relationship—dollar strength typically pressures commodity prices, while dollar weakness often supports them. Global Risk Sentiment Indicator: In risk-off environments, the dollar frequently strengthens as capital seeks safety; in risk-on periods, it often weakens as capital flows to higher-yielding assets. Correlation Phases: The dollar's correlation with other assets isn't static—it shifts based on market regimes and dominant narratives.

Identifying the current correlation regime is essential for proper interpretation. Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView dollar index charts (free/premium) Finviz.com correlation matrix (free) Investing.com currency correlation tables (free) MarketWatch dollar index data (free) Section 4: Time-Based Indicators Trading Session Patterns and Handoffs Core Concept: Global markets operate in a continuous cycle as trading activity moves from Asia to Europe to North America. How markets behave during these handoffs and how one region responds to another's moves provides valuable context.

Overnight Price Action Significance: Gaps between sessions often reveal institutional positioning; consistent patterns of overnight strength or weakness can identify the dominant trading region driving a trend. Regional Divergences: When markets in different regions begin showing different directional biases (e.g., Asian markets weak while European markets strengthen), it often signals changing global capital flows and potential trend shifts. Volume Distribution Changes: Shifts in when the bulk of trading volume occurs during 24-hour markets (FX, futures) often indicate changing participant behaviour and potential trend exhaustion.

Retail-Accessible Sources: Investing.com global indices charts (free) FXStreet session times indicator (free) Electronic market hours gap analysis on any charting platform Market Range Development Core Concept: Markets typically establish daily, weekly, and monthly trading ranges. How price behaves within these ranges, how it tests boundaries, and how ranges evolve over time reveals underlying market dynamics. Opening Range Theory: The initial trading range established in the first 30-60 minutes often defines the day's battleground; breakouts or failures from this range frequently determine session direction.

Weekly Range Analysis: Weekly opening gaps and the market's response to the previous week's high/low levels provide context for likely price behaviour; persistent testing of the same levels indicates important price zones. Range Expansion/Contraction Cycles: Markets cycle between periods of range expansion (trending) and range contraction (consolidation); identifying these patterns helps anticipate transitions between trading strategies. Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView range tools and indicators (free/premium) Trading session opening range indicators (available on most platforms) Average True Range (ATR) studies (available on all platforms) Session high/low markers (available on most platforms) Seasonal and Calendar Effects Core Concept: Despite market evolution, certain calendar-based patterns maintain statistical significance when viewed over long timeframes.

These patterns create probabilistic edges for specific time periods when combined with confirming indicators. Monthly Patterns: Many markets show persistent strength or weakness in certain months due to fiscal year timing, commodity production cycles, and institutional fund flows. Day-of-Week Tendencies: Statistical analysis reveals certain days consistently show different characteristics—some favor trend continuation while others show mean reversion tendencies.

Market-Specific Cycles: Each market has unique seasonal patterns—agricultural commodities follow growing seasons, energy markets follow consumption patterns, currencies reflect trade flow timing, etc. Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView seasonality indicators (community scripts, free) Equity Clock seasonal charts (free) Moore Research seasonal patterns (free/subscription) Seasonal Charts website (free) Time-Based Divergences Core Concept: Comparing market behaviour across different timeframes reveals momentum shifts before they become obvious. When shorter timeframes begin showing different behaviour than longer timeframes, it often signals changing sentiment.

Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Systematically comparing price action, momentum, and volume across different time periods (daily/weekly/monthly or hourly/4-hour/daily) provides context and early warning of trend changes. Period-to-Period Momentum: Tracking how momentum builds or fades across consecutive time periods reveals the strength or weakness of underlying trends before price confirms. Cycle Analysis: Markets move in overlapping cycles of different durations; identifying when multiple cycles align in the same direction or conflict provides insight into potential market turning points.

Retail-Accessible Sources: TradingView multi-timeframe indicators (free/premium) Multiple timeframe RSI divergence tools (available on most platforms) Multi-timeframe comparison templates (available in most trading platforms) Section 5: Integration Framework Building a Cross-Asset Dashboard Core Concept: Creating a systematic approach to monitoring multiple signals across different markets prevents information overload and reveals interconnections between seemingly unrelated indicators. Core Components: An effective dashboard should include: 1) Market regime indicators, 2) Cross-asset correlation monitors, 3) Sentiment gauges, 4) Leading indicators for each asset class, and 5) Anomaly alerts. Visual Organization: Arranging indicators by function rather than by asset class helps identify relationships—group all breadth measures together, all momentum indicators together, etc., across different markets.

Alert Parameters: Establish threshold levels for each indicator based on historical analysis, creating a system that flags only statistically significant deviations rather than normal market noise. Retail-Accessible Sources: MetaEditor development of custom indicators (free/premium but requires programming skills – although these can be accessed) Excel/Google Sheets dashboards with imported data MultiCharts custom workspaces (subscription) Signal Weighting and Contextual Analysis Core Concept: Not all indicators work equally well in all market environments. Adapting signal importance based on prevailing conditions—trending vs. ranging, high vs. low volatility, risk-on vs. risk-off—improves accuracy.

Market Regime Classification: Develop a systematic method to identify the current market regime using volatility metrics, correlation patterns, and trend strength measures. Conditional Signal Weighting: Assign different importance to indicators based on the current regime—momentum signals matter more in trending markets, while overbought/oversold indicators work better in ranging markets. Confidence Scoring System: Create a weighted scoring system that combines multiple indicators, giving greater weight to those with proven effectiveness in the current market environment.

Retail-Accessible Sources: Excel/Google Sheets for scoring models Trading journal software or “script” code development to track signal effectiveness Time Horizon Alignment Core Concept: Different indicators provide signals for different time horizons. Aligning indicator selection with your trading timeframe prevents conflicting signals and improves decision-making clarity. Signal Categorization: Classify each indicator by its typical lead time—some provide immediate tactical signals, others medium-term directional bias, and others long-term strategic positioning information.

Timeframe Congruence: Look for situations where signals align across multiple timeframes, creating higher-probability trade opportunities with defined short and long-term objectives. Conflicting Signal Resolution: Develop a framework for resolving conflicting signals between timeframes—typically by giving priority to the timeframe that matches your trading horizon. Retail-Accessible Sources: Trading journal to track signal effectiveness by timeframe Strategy backtesting tools to verify signal efficacy for specific timeframes Develop Custom multi-timeframe indicators (e,g, in MetaEditor) Conclusion and Your Potential Next Steps The key message throughout this article is that markets communicate through multiple channels simultaneously.

No single indicator provides a complete picture, but when disparate signals begin to align across different asset classes and timeframes, they create a compelling narrative about possible market direction. The trader who recognizes these patterns may gain the ability to position ahead of the crowd rather than simply reacting to price movements after they've occurred. As a suggestion, begin by selecting just two or three indicators from different categories that complement your existing strategy and time availability.

For example, a stock trader might add bond market signals and currency relationships to provide context for equity positions. A commodity trader could benefit from monitoring related currency pairs and institutional positioning through COT reports. Above all, remember that these indicators exist within a complex market ecosystem.

Interpreting them requires context—understanding the prevailing market regime, volatility environment, and broader narrative driving asset prices. An edge in trading has always belonged to those who can interpret what the market is saying before it becomes obvious to everyone else. By listening to the market's quieter signals, you position yourself to hear tomorrow's news today.

The biggest move in 80 years We need to start with what is probably the biggest structural change Europe has seen since the formation of the European Union to its biggest member – Germany. For the first time in 80 years Germany’s Bundestag has voted to lift the country's “debt brake” to allow the expansion of major defence and infrastructure spending under new leadership of incoming Chancellor Frederick Merz. We need to illustrate how much spending Germany is going to do in defence it is up to €1 trillion over the forward estimates. 5 billion of which is to support Ukraine for this year and to continue to put European pressure on Russia.

It's also a country it has been highly sceptical of stimulating itself having suffered through the Weimar government of the 1920s and 30s that led to hideous hyperinflation and drove the country to political extremism. It is also clearly in response to Washington’s change of tact regarding Europe and the war in Ukraine. As it is now clear that Europe who need to defend itself and that NATO is becoming a dead weight that can no longer be relied upon.

Couple this with what the EU is doing itself. Last week we saw the head of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, delivered a speech that stated the continent needed to: “rearm and develop the capabilities to have credible deterrence.” This came off the back of the EU endorsing a commission plan aimed at mobilising up to €800 billion in investments specifically around infrastructure and in turn defence. The plan also proposes to ease the blocs fiscal rules to allow states to spend much more on defence.

If you want to see direct market reactions to this change in the continent’s commitments – look no further than the performance of the CAC40 and DAX30. Both are outperforming in 2025 and considering how far back they are coming compared to their US counterparts over the past 5 years – the switch trade may only be just beginning. What is also interesting it’s the limited reactions in debt markets.

The 10-year Bund finished marginally higher, though overall European bond markets saw limited movement. Bonds rallied slightly following confirmation of the German stimulus package. Inflation swap rates were little changed, while EUR swaps dipped, particularly in the belly of the curve.

EUR/USD ticked up 0.2% to $1.0960. Hopes for a potential Russia-Ukraine cease-fire also offered some support to the euro but has eased to start the weeks as Russia looks to break the deal before it even begins. Staying with currency impactors – The US saw a range of second-tier U.S. economic data releases last week all came in stronger than expected.

Housing starts jumped, likely benefiting from improved February weather. Industrial production rose 0.7% month-over-month big beat considering consensus was for a 0.2% gain while manufacturing jumped 0.9%. Import and export prices also exceeded forecasts, prompting a slight upward revision to core PCE inflation estimates, mainly due to higher-than-expected foreign airfares.

These upside surprises led to a brief sell-off in treasury bills but yields soon drifted lower as equities struggled. Looking ahead to the FOMC decision, expectations remain for the Fed to hold steady. Chair Powell has emphasised that the U.S. economy is in a "good place" despite ongoing uncertainties and has signalled there’s no rush to cut rates.

The Fed’s updated projections are expected to show a slight downward revision to growth, a more cautious view on GDP risks, and slightly higher inflation forecasts. As for rate cuts, the median expectation remains two 25bps cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026, with markets currently pricing around 56bps of easing next year. All this saw the U.S. dollar trade mixed against G10 currencies as local factors took centre stage.

Despite a weaker risk tone in equities, the DXY USD Index edged down 0.1%. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars softened (AUD/USD -0.3%, NZD/USD -0.4%) as risk sentiment deteriorated. The AUD will be interesting this week as we look to the budget that was never meant to happen on Tuesday.

Considering that we are within 10 weeks of a certain election, the budget really is not worth the paper its written on as it will likely change with an ‘election’ likely to be enacted straight after the new government is sworn in. That said, the budget is likely to show once again that Canberra is messing at the edges and not taking the steps needed to address structural issues. The AUD is likely to fluctuate on the release and then find a direction (more likely to the downside) over the week as the budget shows the soft set of numbers with little or no change in the interim.

Finally, the rally of the yen appears to be over as it continues to weaken. USD/JPY climbed from Y149.20 in early Tokyo trade to around Y149.90 as the London session got underway. With CFTC data showing significant long yen positioning, some traders likely unwound short USD/JPY bets ahead of the BoJ decision.

Other JPY pairs moved in tandem with USD/JPY. But whatever is at play out of Japan – the rally of the past 6-7 months looks to be ending and with USD/JPY facing the magic Y150 mark – will the BoJ step in like it did last year? Will the market look straight past it again?

Or will we see a completely different trend?

近期，黄金价格不断刷新历史高点，让全球投资者既兴奋又忐忑。从美联储的货币政策转向到俄乌局势的微妙变化，从华尔街巨头的“淘金热”到黄金ETF的资金大举流入，多重因素交织下，黄金的下一步是继续冲顶，还是面临高位回调？投资者又该如何把握机遇与风险？美联储3月最新议息会议释放了复杂信号：降息预期降温，缩表速度放缓。尽管本次决议维持利率不变，但 2025年仍保留两次降息预期。同时，美联储宣布自4月1日起放缓缩表步伐，每月减持国债规模从600亿美元降至250亿美元。这一“鹰中带鸽”的操作，既表明对经济韧性的认可，也透露出对通胀反复的担忧。政策落地后，黄金市场反应迅速。周三金价从3030美元/盎司附近一路冲高至3056美元，创下历史新高，虽有小幅回调，但始终稳守3050美元关键支撑位。技术面上，金价已突破200日（2619美元）和100日（2756美元）两大移动均线，释放出“上涨趋势延续”的强烈信号。若欧盘时段未出现大幅回落，金价有望蓄力冲击3080美元高位，下方支撑则位于3040-3045美元区间。操作上应顺势而为，警惕波动，以下点位仅供参考：-回调做多：若价格回落至3047-3054美元区间，可布局多单，止损3040，目标看向3065-3080美元。-反弹高空：若冲高至3077-3082美元阻力区，可尝试短空，止损3088，目标3065-3050美元。

自去年底以来，机构就集体唱多，黄金ETF资金狂飙。摩根大通、高盛等投行近期纷纷喊出“继续持有黄金”，贝莱德更将黄金作为分散投资的核心资产。市场信心推动下，黄金期货价格首次突破3000美元/盎司心理关口，黄金ETF（如SPDR Gold Shares）规模飙升至824亿美元，单月净流入68亿美元。法国巴黎银行甚至预测，2025年金价将站上3100美元，较当前水平再涨5%。下面是2月份黄金ETF的资金流动数据：北美：净流入68亿美元，龙头SPDR Gold Shares独占38亿美元。欧洲：净流入1.5亿美元，iShares Physical Gold ETC规模达192亿美元。亚洲：净流入23亿美元，华安黄金ETF以47亿美元领跑。黄金ETF的资金流入与金价呈现高度正相关。建议投资者重点关注SPDR等头部产品的持仓变化，若资金持续涌入，上涨趋势大概率延续；若出现大规模赎回，则需警惕拐点临近。

但是，金价上涨的狂欢中仍需要冷思考：其一是估值争议，自2022年9月黄金牛市启动，金价累计涨幅超40%，部份分析师认为已透支利好，技术性回调概率上升。其二是经济复苏隐忧，若特朗普政府推动的“政府裁员增效”政策成功刺激经济增长，资金或从黄金转向风险资产。其三是政策黑天鹅，美国政府若调整黄金储备估值方式（当前法定价42.22美元/盎司），可能引发市场剧烈波动。其四是俄乌局势不甚明朗，黄金仍有战争溢价。3月18日，普京与特朗普通电话，双方原则性同意“30天临时停火”，但对于库尔斯克控制权和去军事化条件关键分歧犹存。我们普通投资者如何应对这一上涨趋势呢？以下策略请您参考：-中长线配置：将黄金作为资产组合的“压舱石”（建议占比5-10%）。-短线谨慎：避免追高，关注3040-3080美元区间的突破方向。-多元对冲：搭配原油、美元指数等关联资产分散风险。黄金的狂飙既是经济不确定性的镜子，也是人性贪婪与恐惧的放大器。在追逐利润的同时，投资者需牢记：没有永远上涨的市场，只有永远变化的风险。或许正如中方对俄乌局势的呼吁——“对话谈判才是实现和平的必要一步”，黄金投资的真谛，亦在于理性权衡机遇与风险的“动态平衡”。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

热门话题

3月18日，小米集团（1810.HK）公布了2024年度财报，表现远超市场预期，推动股价大涨至57.65港元，年内涨幅接近70%。财报显示，小米集团2024年总收入达到3659亿元，同比增长35%；经调整净利润为272亿元，同比增长41.3%，均创下历史新高。

智能手机业务：高端化布局成效初现，但竞争压力加大2024年，小米智能手机业务收入达1918亿元，同比增长21.8%，全球出货量1.69亿台，同比增长15.7%，根据Canalys数据显示，小米全球智能手机市场份额为13.8%，在2024年稳居全球前三，成为2024年全球前三厂商中唯一实现正增长的品牌。在国内市场，小米的高端化战略正在发挥作用。小米14系列的销量远超上一代机型，带动了高端机型（4000元以上）的销量增长，部分缩小了与苹果、华为的差距。然而，小米要在高端市场站稳脚跟，仍面临着挑战：首先就是华为的强势回归，Mate 60系列销量火爆，已经抢占了部分原属于小米的市场份额。其次就是苹果的持续降价策略，面对中国市场的竞争，苹果加大了促销力度，压制安卓阵营的增长空间。所以虽然小米在高端市场的突破值得肯定，但目前的增长依然依赖中低端市场的支撑。我们可以拭目以待小米未来是继续在中低端市场稳扎稳打还是继续“进攻”高端市场，不同的决策都可能给小米带来不同的影响。IoT业务：智能家居迎来爆发，生态模式成关键2024年，小米IoT与生活消费产品业务收入达1041亿元，同比增长30%，首次突破千亿大关，成为公司增长的第二大动力来源。这一增长主要得益于小米的智能家居产品销量大幅增长，空调、冰箱、洗衣机等产品开始进入更多家庭，尤其是空调销售突破500万台，同比增长超过50%。除此之外可穿戴设备与智能电视的也在市场热销，手环、耳机、智能手表等产品在国内外市场也因为质量和加个优势持续受到欢迎。

不过，小米IoT业务的未来增长仍然依赖两个关键点：生态系统的稳固性：相比苹果、华为的封闭生态系统，小米的IoT生态更加开放，但这也意味着用户忠诚度可能与苹果华为比相对较低。供应链成本与盈利能力：尽管IoT业务规模增长迅速，但其毛利率并不算高。如果未来原材料成本上升，IoT业务的利润空间可能受到挤压。小米汽车：市场表现亮眼，但盈利仍是挑战2024年，小米汽车业务实现328亿元收入，占总营收的9%，其中智能电动汽车销售收入321亿元，全年交付13.69万辆，订单量突破24.8万辆。这些数据都能反映出小米汽车的表现超出了市场预期，甚至带动了港股市场上相关概念股的上涨。

当然市场也依旧抱有审视的态度：首先就是盈利能力仍不明确：目前小米汽车仍处于“烧钱”阶段，尽管销量增长强劲，但何时实现盈利仍是一个未知数。市场竞争加剧：比亚迪、理想、特斯拉等厂商已经深耕电动汽车市场多年，小米想要从中突围，并非易事。小米计划在2025年交付35万辆，比之前的目标（30万辆）提升了16%。不过，市场仍然在观望，小米能否在不牺牲利润率的情况下，继续保持高增长。资本市场反应：股价暴涨，但是否已透支未来？受财报利好影响，小米股价自2024年以来大幅上涨近70%，最新市值达到1.45万亿港元。在投资者看来，小米的多元化增长战略——高端手机、IoT生态、电动车业务，都展现出极大的增长潜力。但市场也有疑虑：小米估值是不是过高了？ 目前小米的市盈率已处于较高水平，一旦后续业绩不及预期，可能面临较大的股价回调风险。未来几个季度的增长是否可持续？ 目前的业绩增长更多来自销量的增加，而不是利润率的提升。如果小米无法提升毛利率，未来增长空间可能受到限制。就比如瑞银在3月10日下调了对于小米的评级，因为现在的股价已经接近目标价60，进一步上涨空间有限，所以评级从买入下调至中性。这并不代表瑞银不看好小米，他们依旧认为小米未来仍有多个“催化剂”，只是所执行条件极为苛刻，比如产能扩张如果不充分就会在激烈的市场竞争中失去份额，又或者中国对于小米智能手机和IoT的政策支持逐渐退出，那么刺激效应减弱，小米的核心业务增长就有可能会开始面临压力。总而言之，对于投资者而言，小米仍是一个具有潜力的长期标的，但短期股价的高估值可能带来一定的波动风险，还是要考虑后期的持续发展，盈利能力等情况做出判断。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418

中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903

作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

热门话题

本周三（3月19日），腾讯（0700.HK）、美团（3690.HK）和拼多多（PDD.US）将陆续发布2024年第四季度财报。这三家互联网巨头的业绩不仅将影响各自股价走势，也将对港股和中概股市场情绪产生重要影响。在宏观经济复苏不确定性仍存的背景下，市场最关注的核心问题是：这三家公司是否能延续增长势头？

市场预期与财报前情绪

近期，市场对中概科技股的态度趋于谨慎。随着经济复苏的节奏缓慢，消费需求的变化、行业竞争加剧、政策环境等因素都可能影响业绩表现。从股价走势来看，腾讯、美团和拼多多在财报前都经历了一定程度的震荡，这表明市场对财报持谨慎乐观的态度，投资者在等待更多业绩数据来判断企业的增长质量和前景。

虽然机构普遍预期三家公司能够交出稳健的财报，但关键在于业绩是否能超出市场预期，以及管理层对于2024年的指引是否乐观。如果财报数据只是符合预期，市场可能不会给予额外溢价；而如果指引低于预期，股价可能面临调整压力。

财报关键看点

腾讯：广告复苏+游戏增长，云业务是关键

腾讯的业绩表现主要受到广告业务复苏、游戏收入增长以及云计算业务盈利能力的影响。过去几个季度，腾讯的广告业务因消费市场回暖而有所恢复，市场将关注该业务的持续性。此外，游戏业务方面，《王者荣耀》《DNF手游》等产品的表现如何，能否带动游戏收入增长，也是投资者关注的重点。

更值得关注的是云业务。虽然腾讯云过去一段时间专注于优化盈利能力，但市场仍然关心该业务是否能重新加快增长，并为整体业绩提供新的支撑点。如果云业务收入增长超预期，可能会成为腾讯股价的重要催化剂。

市场风险：短视频平台竞争加剧可能影响广告收入增长；云业务盈利能力改善能否持续仍需验证。

美团：本地生活复苏，新业务挑战仍存

美团的核心业务仍然是本地生活服务，其中外卖业务的增长情况将直接影响市场预期。在消费复苏的大环境下，外卖订单量是否继续增长？客单价是否提升？这些数据都将决定市场对美团未来的信心。

此外，到店酒旅业务是另一个值得关注的板块。随着旅游行业回暖，该业务可能继续受益于消费升级，但市场仍需观察复苏力度是否足够强劲。与此同时，美团近年来大力投资的新业务（如无人配送、零售、出行等）仍处于投入阶段，盈利能力仍然是市场关注的焦点。如果新业务亏损扩大，可能会影响整体利润表现。

市场风险：本地生活竞争加剧，外卖业务增长空间是否已见顶？新业务短期内能否减少亏损？

拼多多：电商增长稳健，Temu海外扩张是最大变量

拼多多近年来凭借低价策略和下沉市场渗透，在国内电商竞争中占据了一席之地。本季度财报的核心看点仍然是GMV（商品交易总额）增长情况，以及用户活跃度数据。市场将关注拼多多在低价促销策略下，利润率是否受到影响，是否能继续保持高增长。

此外，Temu的全球扩张成为市场最为关注的焦点。作为拼多多的海外业务，Temu的市场拓展速度惊人，但是否具备长期盈利能力仍是一个关键问题。如果管理层能给出清晰的盈利路径，市场情绪可能进一步改善；但如果Temu的投入仍然较大，可能会影响整体盈利表现。

市场风险：Temu海外扩张的盈利压力仍存，国内电商市场竞争激烈。

市场交易策略：如何应对财报前后波动？

短线交易者

• 如果财报数据远超预期但股价未涨反跌，可能是“利好兑现”，短期内存在调整压力。
• 如果财报逊于预期，股价出现大幅回调，则需要观察市场情绪，寻找短线支撑位进行反弹交易。

长期投资者

• 关注核心业务的增长趋势。如果腾讯的广告业务、云计算，美团的本地生活服务，拼多多的电商增长仍然稳健，则长期逻辑未变，短期波动反而可能提供逢低布局的机会。
• 观察技术面，关注50日/100日均线的支撑情况，结合基本面和市场情绪判断买入时机。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Sylvia Qin | GO Markets 悉尼中文部