市场资讯及洞察

Introduction – Are Risk Management Rules Changing?Whether you’re trading FX, index CFDs, commodities, or stocks, today's market environment is arguably at its most risky, but also, of course, with increased risk, some would suggest comes increased opportunity.Whichever way you look at it, the most challenging time in attempting to have a positive trading outcome is when markets become increasingly headline-driven and with that increasingly volatile.Such markets demand decision-making which must be more rapid and flexible, as in minutes things can change with a planned news release that strays away from expectations, policy decisions made and then unmade within days or even hours adding to uncertainty, or a single unexpected social media post from those in power, can and often are sending markets surging or collapsing in a heartbeat.Old-school risk models that aim to protect capital and retain profit have always been an essential part of the trader’s toolbox. However, it could be suggested that these are built around more stable correlations, more gradual price shifts with at least some degree of certainty about what could happen in days or even weeks.With that traditional scenario appearing increasingly obsolete for right now, it merits questioning whether this is a market that traders who still rely on static stop distances, fixed-size positions, or set-and-forget strategies will thrive in. The reality is that they will often find themselves on the wrong side of violent whipsaw moves.Of course, it is worth emphasising that any risk management is far better than ad-hoc or, even worse, an absence of clear and unambiguous actions, irrespective of underlying market conditions. However, being able to achieve positive trading outcomes in all market conditions sometimes needs more than just having some rules in place and the discipline to follow them. It is often not just about being a smarter trader but about being the most adaptable.This article aims to offer some suggestions as to how to review what you are doing now with risks associated with capital protection, profit retention and missing opportunity.What could new market conditions mean for traditional risk management?Having given context for why exploring this in more detail, let’s examine the potential challenges that current market pressures may put upon more traditional risk management approaches that, as a reference, may not have been developed to be as effective as the trader may hope for.There are 3 factors that seem very relevant:

1. Predictable market reactions to data, relatively stable spreads, and modest price swings are all based on some degree of certainty, with relatively speaking, little deviation, if you look at week-by-week changes in expectation beyond an occasional shift. Today, that world appears to be gone. We all know markets become uncomfortable in uncertain environments, You would only need look at the VIX index to see levels of uncertainty, not seen at such high levels recently since the early days of the COVID pandemic, Static stop placements that ignore volatility levels are increasingly ineffective, often triggering a trade closure unnecessarily in erratic price action.

It is clear that what is expected to happen next may all change tomorrow, and then again, the day after.

2. Historical asset relationships, such as safe-haven flows into instruments such as the USD, have broken down when market discomfort becomes panic. Although some assets, such as the obvious example of gold, have flourished, arguably even this has had significant intraday movements. A breakdown of such relationships can not only impact on direct trading of such instruments but also the potential for effective exposure balancing.
3. Sudden liquidity shocks that can occur around planned (and unplanned) news events are commonplace, it seems for right now, as is often the case in headline-driven markets. Price moves, either way, are often exaggerated as sentiment shifts rapidly and dramatically. Few traders want to be on top of the market and spend a whole day in front of a screen, but even being away for a few hours before checking in again can result in significant profits given back to the market without the ability to trail stops in a timely way. It is crucial that profit risks, i.e. giving back significant potential profit, are viewed with equal vigour as capital risk, i.e. a losing trade.

7 New Rules You Need to Know#1 Dynamic Position Sizing and Exposure Based on Volatility:Rather than applying a uniform lot size or number of contracts across all conditions, an adjustment in exposure, not only for individual trades but also across your account, would seem prudent.In high-volatility environments, typical of headline-driven markets, stop placement and position sizing should adjust:

1. To account for wider ranges in price. Tools like ATR (Average True Range) or real-time implied volatility readings can be used to scale positions appropriately or move stops so that market noise is less likely to result in premature exit.
2. To account for not only market conditions now but also the uncertainty created by potential new headlines. As previously referenced, the frequency of unplanned market-shifting news, outside of economic data release, is massively increased. Expecting the unexpected is always a massive challenge in practical terms, but approaches such as reduction of position sizing as well as reducing the number of positions open, e.g. if you have a maximum number of six positions as your norm, then considering reducing this to three positions may be worth contemplating as an approach.

#2 Scenario-Based Risk Planning:Perhaps current risk planning merits that traders think in possibilities, not certainties. For each trade, maybe traders should be asking the question, “What happens if this trading idea doesn’t work? “What happens if there is a significant change in tariff policy once the US wakes up?” Can I trust previous significant key price levels to hold?Planning responses for different outcomes can mean the difference between a controlled exit and a catastrophic loss.#3 Exposure Risk Awareness Over Single Trade Focus:It’s easy to focus risk management on a single trade. However, if you’re long AUDUSD and EURJPY, short the VIX, long copper futures CFD, and long mining stocks due to technical entries, your real exposure is heavily tied to a continuation of a “risk on” sentiment. If there is a sudden change in this sentiment, you potentially have portfolio exposure that could result in losses across five positions simultaneously.See your risk as this and perhaps not only, as suggested before, both setting a maximum number of trades but also being aware of “risk on” of ‘risk-off’ exposure.#4 Watch Stop Placement where others will be looking for them (and take advantage of this too!):Stop-losses placed at obvious technical levels (previous highs, lows, round numbers) are increasingly vulnerable in fast-moving markets. Experienced and institutional, as well as “stop hunters”, can and will exploit this, particularly in markets as they are now. Be extra vigilant to not only stay away from such levels, but also perhaps give a little more space away from them to account for increased volatility, potentially wider spreads and slippage.#5 Accessibility, Notifications, and Rapid Response:It is prudent that traders make sure they use the system tools that are available. These may include alerts on price levels, automated system trailing stops, as well as what you would normally use with stops and take profits.With pending orders, it may well be worth considering just giving a little more space to where you place orders to account for greater volatility, and perhaps it is worth giving up a few pips to be more certain of a price breakout, for example (as well as having time limits on these).Be aware that times such as these merit perhaps a few more frequent visits to your computer screen than may be your normal access. If this is not possible, then again, perhaps look at what and how you are trading, and not only be aware of the risks but temper your positions accordingly.#6 Flexibility in Strategy Selection:In hyper-volatile periods, not all strategies remain valid.Traditionally, in such times, breakout systems are thought to have a better chance of thriving (although false breakouts may be common – see above for pending order placement), while mean-reversion systems may often produce fewer desirable outcomes.However, there are often choppy periods of range-bound consolidation where, in reality, breakout strategies can suffer.Today's trader must constantly assess, sometimes multiple times during the trading day, whether the current market conditions align with their strategy style and if not, either adapt, step back from markets, or switch approach.Getting that overall big picture through looking at longer timeframes is arguably always important, but even more so in the current market state.#7 Psychological Capital Protection:It would be amiss to discuss these sorts of markets without referencing the potential psychological toll.Every trader has a breaking point where emotional control falters. Protecting financial capital has obviously been a major theme of this article, but protecting psychological capital, i.e. the ability to make rational decisions after a loss, is just as critical AND of course, the point at which you recognise that such a level has been reached.Establishing maximum daily or weekly loss limits, having mandatory time-outs after big losses (and arguably big wins too), and owning that you are straying from emotional discipline are all practical steps that can be taken.The risk is that market risk spirals, a failure to adjust and set such levels can be very damaging as the market sucks you in and poor decision take aver, don’t put yourself at risk destroy months of progress in a few days of undisciplined, emotionally driven trading.Conclusion: The REAL Trader’s Edge in a Volatile WorldIn a market state where we can see dramatic price shifts within seconds, rigid risk management approaches need to be reviewed.Flexibility, awareness, and using the system tools to have access to assist in monitoring and taking actions are not a luxury but arguably a necessity.Protecting your capital and reducing profit risk today isn't simply about setting a stop and a take profit, then hoping for the best; it’s about building dynamic, responsive systems that take into account increased uncertainty and volatility in headline-driven price moves.Making adjustments in your behaviour, your trading systems and of course keeping an eye on your own decisions are all paramount to not only survive but to give yourself to thrive in markets such as these.Many of the approaches referenced throughout this article are not particularly complex, most are very simple in fact.As always, you have choices to make.

进入4月下旬，全球金融市场情绪发生明显变化。其中，比特币也成为了最引人注目的资产之一。截至2025年4月22日，比特币价格已突破90,900美元大关，当日涨幅超过3.95%，创下近六周新高。这一轮快速反弹打破了3月以来的震荡格局，引发市场对加密资产走势的高度关注。美元回落与市场预期变化比特币的强势上涨与美元走弱密切相关。近期，美元指数从年内高点一路回落甚至一度到100以下，反映出投资者对美国经济前景和政策不确定性的担忧上升。特别是在特朗普宣布近期的“极端”加征高额关税后，市场担忧全球贸易摩擦升级，尤其是过去一周特朗普又开始对鲍威尔猛烈抨击，指责他的降息速度过慢，更加剧了投资者的不安，引发对避险资产或者说“去美元化”比如比特币的再配置。此外，尽管美联储目前处于暂停降息阶段，但投资者普遍预期年中前后将重启宽松周期。根据CME FedWatch工具，截至4月22日，市场对2025年7月降息的概率为64%。利率预期的回调对非收益类资产（如黄金与比特币）形成支持。机构回归，资金面助攻根据Bitcoin Magazine报道，美国比特币现货ETF在4月21日录得3.81亿美元单日净流入，为自1月以来的最高水平，显示机构投资者正在回补头寸。与此同时，链上分析平台CryptoQuant数据显示，过去7天内“鲸鱼账户”（单次交易超过1000 BTC）交易活跃度显著提升。部分对冲基金和资管机构认为当前价格仍处于“中枢区间”，具备中期配置价值。Fidelity分析师指出：“在黄金创出历史新高后，部分资金选择以比特币作为平行配置，以实现高波动下的避险与投机双重目标。”技术信号确认，多头信心回归从技术图形上看，比特币在突破88,000美元后快速站稳90,000美元上方，完成20日与50日均线的“金叉”，并站上中期支撑位。这一结构性突破增强了市场的多头信心。情绪指数方面，Crypto Fear & Greed Index 已回升至“Greed”区域（当前为76），表明市场情绪正转向积极。根据Coinglass数据显示，目前多空比为1.68：1，空头持仓减少，市场出现明显逼空行情。多头背后的隐忧：短期波动仍存尽管比特币在技术面和资金面形成共振，但也存在不少潜在隐忧。链上追踪平台Lookonchain指出，4月22日前48小时内有超过4.3万枚BTC流入交易所，创本月新高。部分分析人士认为这可能是早期投资者选择在高位套现，增加了短期回调风险。此外，随着市场对美联储降息路径的博弈愈演愈烈，一旦未来公布的PCE、非农等关键经济数据超出预期，或引发再次鹰派预期回升，比特币可能面临调整。数字资产的新“避险锚”？这波比特币上涨并非孤立事件。本周以来，美国科技股亦表现稳健，纳指周初上涨1.9%，标普500指数站稳5200点关口。港股市场方面，科技板块回暖也同步反映出全球风险偏好回升。值得关注的是，黄金在年内此前也突破每盎司3,000美元大关，创下历史新高。部分资金从贵金属转入加密资产，用以提升组合的β弹性，显示数字资产正在与传统避险资产形成“互补竞争”格局。比特币不仅作为投机品，更逐渐承担起反映全球货币政策变化、风险情绪演化的金融资产角色。展望：结构性上行，短期仍需谨慎中长期来看，比特币本轮上涨由宏观逻辑驱动（利率预期、地缘政治）和微观行为（机构配置、ETF流入）共同推动，具备一定持续性。但也应关注以下三点风险：政策风险：若美联储态度转鹰，或再次释放紧缩信号，将打压非收益类资产。技术回调压力：市场已连涨5日，部分技术指标处于超买区间，需防范“获利了结”。地缘事件演变：若全球贸易紧张或地区冲突升级，对市场流动性或造成干扰。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

It has been over 21 days since ‘Liberation Day’ – since then, the forest of chaos ensued as lead investors, traders, and the full gamut of financial participants lost sight of where we stand.Not surprising when you look at the reporting versus the market. The chaos has led to mass loss of confidence from both the consumer and business side, spending intentions have plummeted and ‘American Exceptionalism’ is ‘ending’ depending on your point of view – this is what’s being reported.The market, however, has had other ideas – since Liberation Day, most have gone a full 360-degree round trip and moreAUD/USD

NZD/USD

Equities, too, have done some staggering reversals of fortune. Outside of China and the US markets, most major indices are either at or near breakeven. We are talking about the likes of Canada, the UK, Australia, most of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and take Mexico, one of the hardest hit nations in the new tariff order – it's up 6.4% since Liberation Day.So, can we see the forest from the trees? Or should that be the trees from the forest?We need to drill down to one player, and for that, we want to concentrate on Australia, as the chaos from Washington has clearly consumed everything and led to a loss of reality.So, where does Australia sit? Well, it entered 2025 with solid economic momentum. Fourth-quarter GDP figures surprised to the upside, inflation appeared to be bending back toward the RBA’s target band, and consumer sentiment was on the mend until Liberation Day. Domestically, the data painted a picture of a soft landing: one where inflation was moderating without significantly damaging the labour market or derailing growth. Happy days if you are running the RBA.And despite Liberation Day’s disruptions, Australia’s fundamentals overall remain largely intact.Capacity utilisation has begun to ease, labour markets are still tight, though the participation rate has slipped, and headline inflation pressures have eased thanks to falling import costs and policy-driven subsidies (which is not a good thing but has helped). Core inflation, too, is easing thanks to lower inputs from the likes of rents, household and personal services and financial services, but as yet has not cracked the RBA’s target band.Overall, the economy continues to expand, although modestly and forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been downgraded as the outlook is becoming more finely balanced.One thing to keep in mind, too, is that Australia may even benefit from some aspects of the shifting global trade environment, particularly if supply chains are redirected away from the U.S., leading to cheaper goods and a further softening of import-driven inflation that Australia is heavily exposed to.A Deliberate Easing Cycle We background all this to give colour to an interesting trade development that has been lost in the chaos. RBA rate pricing.First things first – the consensus for the RBA cash rate is that by Christmas this year, the cash rate will fall to 3.1% - previous consensus was 3.6% - that’s a full 100 basis points (bps) out of the cash rate from this point in time.What significantly differs is the timing and size of cuts to reach the 3.1%.The RBA has already taken the first step with a February cut, which it framed “not as the beginning of a cycle but rather as a reversal of its precautionary hike in November 2023”.So, February was just a ‘righting’ of the ship. Where now? With inflation continuing to moderate and global uncertainty mounting, the case for additional easing is building—albeit cautiously.Inflation data supports this slower, data-dependent approach and having now seen and heard Michele Bullock in action for over 18 months, this is likely to be the most probable course of action.Real-time estimates for the first quarter trimmed-mean CPI due on the 30^th of April sit at 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter and 2.8% for the year-on-year figure, which would mark the first time core inflation has been in the RBA’s target band since 2021.Housing inflation has continued to decelerate—likely a sustained trend through 2025—and extended electricity bill subsidies are expected to further soften headline numbers. At the current trajectory, consensus has inflation ending 2026 around 2.6%, firmly within the RBA’s target range. All positive news for an RBA cutting cycle.However, this is where the divergence is building – the inflation story is leading to a large front-loading of rate cuts. We know the RBA is prepared to act, but it remains wary of providing strong forward guidance. The minutes from the April meeting reaffirmed the Board’s concern over sticky unit labour costs—an issue exacerbated by weak productivity. Subsequent public remarks from the Governor and Deputy Governor stressed a cautious, reactive stance, as well as keeping some powder dry if the uncertainty leads to even larger issues. But a 50bps cut at the 20 May meeting looks to be an upside move.This will be interesting for the likes of the AUD, although it has rallied hard against the USD, like all other major currencies have. Against the likes of the EUR and GBP, it has clearly been priced on global risk, yes, but also the prospect of a large cut on 20 May.We caution this view. Why? The upcoming May 3 election has added another layer of complexity. Both major political parties have pledged significant increases in public spending across sectors such as healthcare, housing, aged care, and defence. The most recent pre-election Budget included modest tax cuts and extensions to electricity subsidies. The opposition has flagged further tax relief, including a potential cut to fuel excise as well as major support for home ownership through subsidies.These promises imply wider deficits and a rising debt load regardless of who forms the government. With no meaningful supply-side reforms on the table, Australia's fiscal trajectory is skewing looser.That ‘assistance’ is likely to stay the hand of the RBA from a shock cut for a more restrained 25bps cut. This is in keeping with the ‘narrow path’ it still uses for justification, balancing the need to support domestic sentiment and inflation targeting with caution around external volatility and fiscal expansion.Thus, we believe a more measured path is likely – this being 4 25bps cut meetings. Most likely being May, August, September and November. This is likely to see the AUD jumping from time to time due to overly bearish rate-cutting viewpoints.The forest is there – we just need to look in the right places and ignore the blowing breeze through the trees.

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2025年4月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥发表讲话，回应了市场关心的几个核心问题：通胀怎么了？美国经济能撑住吗？美联储会不会降息？这番讲话虽然语气温和，但释放的信息却让市场不敢掉以轻心。通胀还没彻底“搞定”鲍威尔指出，美国通胀虽然比前几年回落，但仍然高于美联储设定的2%目标。本来他预期物价会继续稳定下来，但近期特朗普政府提高关税，可能推高进口商品价格，让通胀再起波澜。更麻烦的是，这些关税还可能拖累经济和就业。也就是说，物价在涨，经济却在慢，这是一种类似“滞胀”的局面，对美联储来说是最难处理的。就业依然强，但增长在放缓鲍威尔承认，美国的就业市场仍然强劲，失业率低，大多数人能找到工作。但另一方面，第一季度经济增长放缓，企业和消费者信心也受到关税不确定性的影响。换句话说，美国经济目前还算健康，但面临“感冒”风险。

美联储不会“急着降息”面对这种复杂局面，鲍威尔的态度是：不急、不动、继续观察。他说，美联储当前的利率水平合适，不需要马上调整。他也没有像市场希望的那样暗示“即将降息”。鲍威尔强调，如果通胀只是暂时上升，联储不会贸然收紧政策；但如果通胀长期偏高，也不能坐视不管。总之，美联储目前的策略是“观望”，不为市场涨跌所动，也不会因为政治或股市压力就改口。市场反应：股市跌，黄金涨鲍威尔讲话后，市场立刻有反应。美股下跌，因为投资者原本希望鲍威尔会释放更鸽派（也就是支持降息）的信号，但他态度偏谨慎，让人有些失望。标准普尔500指数当天跌了约2%，科技股更是领跌。债券市场方面，由于担心经济放缓，资金涌入美债，导致收益率下滑。市场仍在押注，美联储可能在下半年降息。美元下跌，黄金上涨。因为鲍威尔没释放支持美元的利好信息，而黄金则因为避险需求上升而走强。这反映了市场的一个共识：经济存在下行压力，但美联储短期内不会出手。

讲话基调：偏“鹰派”整体来看，鲍威尔的讲话偏“鹰派”——他更关心通胀，没有明确表示会快速降息，也不打算“救市”。对于投资者来说，这意味着不能再指望美联储一出手市场就反弹的“魔法”。他也直接回应了是否会因为股市下跌就采取行动的问题，回答是“不会”。这等于告诉市场：我们现在不急，先看情况发展。总结：市场需做好“走钢丝”的准备鲍威尔这次讲话释放出一个清晰信号：美联储将更加谨慎，不会轻易被市场波动带节奏。在通胀未彻底缓解之前，降息不会轻易到来。而如果经济下行压力持续增强，美联储也可能在下半年调整立场。对普通人来说，这场讲话告诉我们：美联储在关键时刻会选择稳住物价，即使经济增速放缓。接下来，市场将高度关注未来几个月的通胀和就业数据。是否降息，仍取决于现实的数据，而不是市场的愿望。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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复活节过完了，美股却没有“复活”，昨晚又遭遇股债汇“三杀”。在关税政策执行时按下暂停键后，90天缓冲期带来的是无尽“谈判”，世界的焦点只有一个人——特朗普。然而市场大幅回撤消化利空后，短暂走稳没几天，周末解雇鲍威尔又上了头条新闻。白宫传特朗普正在制定解雇鲍威尔提案，特朗普也在媒体渠道大肆批判这位不紧不慢的美联储主席。尽管美联储主席的动作可以被吐槽，但美联储独立性不容干预，因此特朗普此举又引发了市场抛售。这几个月接二连三的巨大市场利空，让我们不得不抛开市场基本情况，转而思考下特朗普的动机。正是他一次次“搅局”，不断搞事，才让市场看上去刻意自我“摧毁”。然而这位精明的商人不会蠢到一上台就“自废武功”，看着刚刚达到新低的总统支持率，这么下去中期选举共和党地位不稳。

特朗普接手“瞌睡”登的时候股指正在震荡冲历史新高，而美国债务问题一直得不到很好的解决，每次两党都为提高债务上限吵得不可开交。很明显，股市再连涨四年不现实，特朗普明白若顺其自然很可能在其任期的后半程会遇到市场泡沫破裂，特别是等待美联储这种为了不衰退而慢悠悠降息的节奏，转眼两年就过去了，届时若没有达到目标，换个政策甚至掌舵人就行，而特朗普若本届得不到“善终”，很可能会跟上次离开一样，面临被彻查甚至牢狱之灾，所以特朗普务必要让下一届保持共和党连任，不是自己就是共和党接班人掌权，这是逻辑基础，是特朗普不可退却的底线。了解特朗普的出发点，我们就可以推测他“搅局”的动机。从经济上来看，先刻意让市场暴跌，彻底颠覆原有稳定格局，重塑金融体系，不仅可以彻底挤掉过去两年大涨的泡沫，又可以让家族在布空中疯狂赚钱，最重要的一点是能够满足自己永远处于聚光灯焦点的成就感。当市场经济转变成政治干预经济，进一步发展成政治命令经济，我们似乎看到了资本主义下的共产主义，多么荒诞的混合体制。美元霸权首先与美国全球贸易顺差就是无法兼容的，特朗普不会不明白这一点，所以所谓的制造业回流和反腐减债全是乱贴“狗皮膏药”，包括对外关税政策和对内集权的最终目的，都是让全世界和本土金融机构乖乖买美国国债，无限给美国政府续命。国债不仅得买，还得买长期债为主，还不能给高利息。这样就可以更清晰理解特朗普为何着急施压美联储，叫嚣解雇鲍威尔，乱搞关税战又突然按下暂停键，就算这两件事情得以了解，还会有第三件第四件影响市场的大事出来，今年应该是没完没了的。个人认为关税战之所以没有进展，就算90天到了还会继续延期，这也是两党拖延债务上限又得避免政府关门的同样手法。

回到市场本身，本周特斯拉和谷歌出财报，机构已经预言本周出财报算是挑了个烂日子，本来财报季股市就不乐观，现在更是雪上加霜。基于以上分析，衡量暂时清掉美股还是购入黄金股和对冲型ETF哪个划算成为必要的计划。标普今年下跌了12.3%，纳指下跌了17.8%，而黄金上涨了31.1%，恐慌指数上涨了94.9%。因此从数据上看，对冲似乎是可以操作的，但实际上大部分人持有的并非股指本身，七巨头或者成长股，很多跌幅超过了股指，而对冲现在才开始入局的话，黄金和恐慌是否还能以这样的涨幅上冲呢？所以这就需要根据个人自己实际持仓情况“对症下药”了。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Why Is Gold in Focus Right Now?Throughout early 2025, gold has surged to record highs, breaching $3,400 an ounce for the first time in history. For newer traders, this may seem like a “blue-sky” breakout without precedent. For experienced market participants, it raises a more practical and important question, i.e. what is driving this rally, and is it sustainable?Understanding the fundamental and technical context behind such moves helps us not only trade the present but plan for what may come next, which can guide us in the decisions we make with our trading action.This article aims to build upon recent outlook webinars that we have delivered recently, which have waved the bullish flag throughout. However, I must admit to having been surprised at the velocity of the rally.We will try to unpick key drivers as well as analyse what could be next and why.What’s Driving the Gold Rally in 2025?Let’s take a look at the main contributing factors that are currently supporting the upward momentum in gold prices:1. Rising Global Uncertainty and Geopolitical RiskPolitical instability, as it has historically, remains a strong macro backdrop for gold. Recent flare-ups in geopolitical conflict — particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East — have returned “safe haven” flows back into focus. This is typical during periods when traditional risk assets like equities face greater downside volatility.Additionally, the somewhat turbulent start (even more so than many predicted) to the new U.S. administration has introduced an element of policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, inflation and the impact of economic growth. The possibility of further tariffs or fiscal tightening reinforces gold’s appeal as a form of protection.Key Point: Traders need to monitor not just existing conflicts, but also the market perception of risk. Gold often responds not to what is happening, but to what investors fear might happen.2. US V China – trade war brewing?Tariff dramas have been the major market chatter and sentiment changer over the last few weeks. On top of general broad international tariffs, and to pause or not to pause decisions, the major attention is, and likely to continue to be, the escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China has pushed inflation expectations higher. While inflation has generally cooled since its 2022–2023 peaks, cost-push factors such as tariffs can reintroduce price pressures, particularly on imports.Central banks globally are including tariffs within a rate decision narrative, but no central bank is more in focus, of course, than the Federal Reserve. In Trump's last presidency, the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell came under fire for rate policy, and already, it was noteworthy that the current president aimed a shot at him once again. The market is aware that inflationary shocks are not off the table once tariff impact starts to bite at importer costs in the US, and the “priced in” rate cut that is likely to occur in June is still some time away, and the certainty that this may happen may start to waver. Gold has historically performed well when real yields (interest rates adjusted for inflation) fall or remain negative.Key Point: Watch CPI data closely. If inflation expectations start to climb again due to trade-related costs, gold may continue to benefit.3. U.S. Dollar WeaknessThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) has declined to multi-year lows, making gold more attractive to non-U.S. investors. This is a classic inverse relationship — as the dollar falls, gold often rises.A weaker dollar could potentially indicating that the market could be pricing in a more dovish Federal Reserve, with rate cuts potentially on the table later in the year, However, more likely in this case, the dramatic drop in the USD, which this week hit 3 year lows, is more likely due to concerns about growth and even the perceived chance of recession.At the time of writing, the earnings season is ramping up, and despite Q1 results so far being relatively positive, we are already seeing concerns expressed (as is often the case with uncertainty) relating to forward guidance. This, of course, plays into the slowdown narrative. This week's PMI data feels as though it may have even more importance than usual.Key Point: Gold traders should always include USD direction in their macro framework. It often amplifies or suppresses broader trends in the metal.4. Central Bank and Institutional DemandAnother major support for gold is the persistent demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets such as China and Turkey. These institutions are increasingly shifting reserves into gold as part of long-term diversification away from USD assets.Evidence suggests ETF flows have also picked up, showing increasing but not outrageous levels, suggesting the move is still institutional in nature rather than purely speculative.Key Point: As long as institutional and central bank demand remains steady or rising, gold has a structural reason to be supported underneath current price levels.What the Technical Picture Is Telling UsWhile fundamental drivers continue to support gold, the technical setup also tells an important story — one that can help traders decide whether to stay in, take partial profits, or prepare for tactical re-entries after any price pullback. Let’s explore the technical picture in a bit more detail.

• Gold’s Long-Term Trend Structure Remains Intact

Gold has been making a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows since mid-2023. This trend has been confirmed across multiple timeframes, including the daily and weekly charts — an important feature for position traders.Currently, price is well above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which have now turned upward and widened — a classic sign of trend strength and directional bias. When prices pull back in strong trends, these EMAs often serve as dynamic support levels.

• Momentum: The weekly RSI is elevated (above 75), which suggests gold may be in overbought territory in the short term.

What About RSI Being Overbought?One of the most common misunderstandings among newer traders is how to interpret an elevated RSI (Relative Strength Index), particularly when it crosses above the traditional 70 level.RSI above 70 does not automatically mean 'sell' — especially in strong trends, so this merits a little further discussion.Here’s why a high RSI may not be a problem:

1. Context matters: In trending markets, RSI can remain elevated (above 70 or even 80) for extended periods without any meaningful pullback. This is often referred to as a 'momentum breakout' condition.
2. Confirmation from volume: If rising RSI is accompanied by increased volume, it suggests that momentum is being supported by participation, not exhaustion. Currently, weekly volume has expanded on breakout weeks, supporting the move.
3. New highs with RSI > 70 are actually bullish: A strong market making new highs and registering overbought readings usually reflects strength, not vulnerability — unless divergence begins to appear.

Key Point: Use RSI as a momentum gauge, not a reversal trigger in isolation. In this case, RSI supports the idea that gold is strong, not yet stretched to the point of reversal.

• Next Targets: Many technical analysts are watching $3,500 and $3,650 as key psychological and Fibonacci extension levels. A sustained break above $3,400 would likely bring these into view.
• Support Levels: If price retraces, $3,200 and $3,050 are likely areas where buyers may step back in, especially if the macro story remains intact.Key Point: Momentum remains strong, but even in trending markets, corrections are normal. Having a plan for where to re-engage is just as important as knowing when to stay out.
• What Would a Healthy Pullback Look Like?

Even the strongest trends pause. If gold does retrace in the short term, the nature of the pullback is more important than whether it happens.Signs of a healthy pullback include:- Controlled decline in decreasing volume- Price respecting prior breakout zones — e.g., $3,250–$3,280- Holding dynamic support like the 20-day or 50-day EMA- Reversal candle patterns near support (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing)Key Point: In strong markets, pullbacks are often shallow and short-lived. They can be opportunities to scale in, provided the structure remains intact.Sentiment and Positioning: Are Traders Too Bullish?It’s important not to get swept up in price action alone. The COT (Commitments of Traders) report can provide valuable insight into whether markets are approaching overly crowded levels.

• Large Speculators have increased their net long positions, but not yet at levels seen in major historical peaks.
• Retail traders have only recently started to increase exposure, which suggests the move is not fully mature.
• ETF inflows, while rising, are still below the aggressive flows seen in 2020.Key Point: Current positioning suggests there may still be room to run, especially if new catalysts emerge. However, if positioning becomes too lopsided, be ready for faster and sharper corrections.

What Could Change the Narrative….Risks to Watch?Even with a strong bull case, traders must stay aware of what could derail gold’s momentum:Risk Event #1: Sudden USD reboundImpact on Gold: Could trigger a sharp pullbackRisk Event #2: Hawkish Fed surpriseImpact on Gold: Logically higher real yields = bearish gold due to USD impact – however, gold’s role as an inflation risk is likely to offset this.Risk Event #3: De-escalation of trade/geopolitical tensionsImpact on Gold: Safe-haven demand may soften if this is part of the reason for the current price rise. However, with other factors predominating price moves for right now, again, this may not be critical.Risk Event #4: Profit-taking and reversal in momentumImpact on Gold: Could create a short-term topKey Point: Risk doesn’t always mean reversal — but it does mean adjusting trade size, stops, and expectations when conditions change.Summary: Stay Informed, Stay DisciplinedGold’s rise in 2025 has been impressive, but it hasn’t been irrational. The macro backdrop, institutional support, and technical structure all support the trend.However, markets rarely move in straight lines, and traders should stay ready for both continuation and correction scenarios.Success is likely to lie in applying consistency in the management of profit and capital risks, as well as having a clear method to re-enter as appropriate. consistently while remaining adaptable to changing conditions.Traders should view the current gold move as a reflection of persistent macro themes and technical support rather than any sort of “bubble”. Whether you’re already long or waiting for a retracement, your decision-making should be rooted in having a clear and unambiguous trading plan and, of course, the discipline of follow-through in the actions you take.