市场资讯及洞察

热门话题

大家都知道，美国时间本周二，澳洲时间周三上午，将会迎来美国大选以及直播投票结果。而截至今天，也就是周一下午，目前世界财经网站彭博社依然给出了几乎50%对50%的预测结果，也就是说，目前任何一方都没有完全胜算的把握。

当然其实我们都知道，过去2次的大选，其实结果都和当初预测的相差很远：特朗普第一次获胜当时媒体普遍猜测希拉里将会当选。而4年前特朗普和拜登的对决里，媒体也预测特朗普会连任，因此经历了两次失败的预测后，现在美国媒体也被打怕了，干脆出一个50：50的预测。但是50：50的比例也意味着，美国民间选民已经被严重撕裂和相互对立。并且几乎已经达到了疯狂的阶段。不论是最流行的歌手Tyler还是好莱坞明星Tom Hanks或者特斯拉的马斯克，都选择了自己支持的阵营，这不算什么。关键是他们的发言，实在是太夸张了，在我看来完全就是极端化。应该说，在整个西方国家里，美国的总统选举过程，是最招摇，最极端，最让民间产生对立情绪的。

当然我们今天并不是要来评判美国的选举制度。我们今天马后炮一下，随便瞎说一下，为什么美国民间的选民会这么撕裂？1. 过度的政治正确最终导致了选民内心的崩溃：我们知道早在多年前，当中东叙利亚战争和阿富汗战争后，就有大量难民前往了欧洲和美国，澳洲也有。而这些国家也从一开始的欢迎和热情接待，到之后不断的硬着头皮处理大量社会治安事件。但是在公开场合，没有人敢于表达任何对于接收战争地区移民的不满。但是实际上，大量西方民间选民的真实思想，其实已经可以从他们的投票里看到：当初特朗普为什么可以出人意料的战胜希拉里，就是因为大量美国底层百姓不再信任所谓的精英政府。而是希望借助完全没有政治经验的特朗普，来打破之前那种虚伪，但是又看似非常得体的高大上美国政治。2. 过去几年疫情导致贫富差距进一步拉大：其实不仅仅在美国，包括澳洲，欧洲和世界几乎所有地区，在过去几年，由于物价飞涨，导致大部分普通民众的收入大量缩水，可用资金的减少直接导致了生活质量的下降。而另一方面，有资金投资的阶层则继续在股市里风生水起，美股澳股日本欧洲，都是不断在创下新高。这种巨大的差异还在不断拉大，最终导致了大量矛盾的爆发。以上说到的原因，任何人都无力短期内改变，就算是美国总统也无能为力。那我们普通百姓，还是生活在美国以外的百姓，在这次选举中需要做什么准备吗？我们分成不会改变的，和会改变的两种情况来看：

不论选举结果如何都不会改变的：1. 继续降息。美国不论谁当选，继续降息是板上钉钉的，但是相比于现任拜登，特朗普之前有过很多直接尝试影响美联储决定的言论和推特，但是总的来说，美联储有着很大的政策独立性，因此不论谁当选，都不太会改变目前的降息计划。2. 美国股市长期趋势上涨不变。和降息所对应的，就是对经济和股市的刺激。因此只要降息没有停止，对于股市的刺激作用就不会停。虽然不能说100%，但是大概率，股市将会在未来12个月内继续保持上涨。任何短期的回调，都是长期持仓的进场机会。3. 美国对中国的政策：这一点不论是那个当选都不会改变。而且未来可能在政策限制上会越来越多。4. 美国的美元地位：通常来说，美元地位都和美国在全球的军事参与和实力成正比，相反在和平时期，欧洲发展快速时期，美元的地位则会被削弱。而今我们知道哪哪都不太平，因此这时美元的地位将会非常稳定牢固。

会因为选举结果而改变的：1. 美国的对外贸易政策：目前两个候选人在主要贸易政策，例如关税问题上差别很大，而征收关税的多少，短期内将会直接导致美国国内通胀的变化，进而间接影响到降息的间隔时间。2. 美国在联邦层面对于债务的态度。我们知道美国是永远还不清美元债了，所以我们讨论的就是每年新增的债务数字是多，还是很多的差别。这个债务数字，和大政府开支或小政府开支有关，民主党讲究的是大政府，大开支，共和党则相反。最终美债也会影响到股市和美元阶段性的强弱。以上，只是我们基于目前掌握的信息给出的猜测和判断，最终谁也不知道这次谁会获胜。但是不论是谁，上面给大家总结的很多观点，尤其是有关降息和股市的部分，是一个大概率的结果。我们投资永远要记住一点：世上无绝对会成功的项目，但是只要有大百分比成功率的，我们就应该去尝试，去坚持。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题

在经历完GDP，核心PCE和非农集中考验后的美股，正式结束10月行情，迎来11月契机。原本过去几年逢9月10月必大跌的魔咒在今年被破除，但9月的稳定并未持续到10月结束。今年财报季股指均回调的规律依然成立，过去半个月标普已经连收两周阴线，技术面与4月7月行情极为相似，财报季还未过去，新的一周继续回撤的可能性很大。在消息面，本周是降息开启后美联储预计连续第二次降息的一周，由于大选影响，利率决议将在澳洲时间周五清晨公布，届时鲍威尔新闻发布会依然是投资者关注的焦点。然而那时候美国大选结果已经出炉，新总统的决定是否会对美联储产生影响尚且不得而知。毕竟特朗普曾公开宣称总统应该有干预美联储的权利，若他当选或许是对鲍威尔施压的开始。

新的一周焦点无疑是美国大选和利率决议的碰撞。美国大选直接关系着股市热点板块的变化，毕竟政策风往哪边吹还得跟谁当总统有直接关系，在特朗普和哈里斯的竞选宣言中便可知一二。目前根据市场解读，哈里斯将秉承拜登一贯政策，其上台会进一步加速强化对新能源的开发和使用，对高科技特别是芯片公司的压力不会加大，对微软和META等支撑其竞选的巨头或更为友好，其经济路线或许更为迷茫，对国际形式的武力干预可能性会加大，对地缘政治的影响更为直接，中东战争或拉长时间线，对中国的态度尽管依然保持敌意，但经济层面的压力不会太大。如果是特朗普上台，首先受益的是其坚实好友马斯克，那么特斯拉也将直接受益。特朗普认为传统能源很难在未来5到10年内被替代，为了保持减缓对海外传统能源的依赖，其政策将更为注重本土传统能源行业的发展。另外特朗普一直不满美国芯片行业被台系企业控制，想要台湾缴纳保护费，其上台对英伟达台积电等台系公司的压力会加大。特朗普认为日本和中国的货币宽松低汇率政策导致美国本土产品失去了国际竞争力，其上台后第一件事就是要降低美元对日元的汇率以及美元对人民币的汇率，从疫情前美日仅100出头到现在的150以上，从整个加息周期后美元人民币汇率从6.3涨到一度冲破7.3，目前还在7.1以上，这都是特朗普无法接受的。还有更关键的一点是特朗普一直以其任内美国没有发动对外战争为自豪，也保证其上台后第一件事就是让中东和俄乌停战。因此特朗普的上台有利于国际局势的缓和，地缘政治直接武装冲突的可能会降低，有利于避险资金的流动。特朗普一贯擅长经济治国，其上任也能进一步助推美国经济活跃度，当然对中国政策方面或许会进一步加大贸易战力度，其曾经宣称的额外征收关税也会令中美经济合作更为艰难。

整体上看，美联储本周降息25个基点板上钉钉，并且基本已经被市场消化，鲍威尔先前透露的今年降息100个基点也越发变得清晰明朗，因此利率决议全看鲍威尔新闻发布会用词对市场的影响，而不是降息程度。由于离谱的非农数据和不及预期的三季度GDP，美联储明年进一步降息的力度将增加不少。而大选方面，目前特朗普获胜的概率更高一些，以今年特朗普所经历的离谱经验，他当选新一届美国总统的可能性也更高一些。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

热门话题

近期，美元在全球外汇市场中持续走强，美元指数创出新高，这一走势引发了广泛关注。通常情况下，美元和黄金价格呈反向波动关系，但近期两者却双双上涨，这与一贯的市场规律不符。究其原因，不仅是美国大选前的避险情绪增强，还受到最新经济数据的推动。我们将结合第三季度GDP、核心PCE和ADP就业数据等关键指标，分析美元和黄金走势的背后原因。

一、GDP与核心PCE指数：经济增速低于预期，通胀依然存在美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得2.8%，低于市场预期的3%。尽管GDP低于预期，但核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.2%，高于预期的2.1%，表明通胀压力依旧存在。这种经济增速放缓但通胀压力未消的现象，让市场对美联储的加息前景更加关注。经济增速低于预期削弱了市场的信心，但通胀上升使得市场对美联储进一步紧缩政策的预期增加，支撑了美元的需求。避险需求加上通胀压力，形成了美元和黄金同涨的局面。二、10月ADP就业数据超预期：就业市场的韧性10月ADP就业人数录得23.3万人，创下2024年3月以来最大增幅，远超预期的11.4万人。这表明美国就业市场韧性十足，为美元提供了进一步的支撑。就业数据表现强劲为美联储继续保持紧缩政策提供了基础，也让市场对未来利率上升持乐观态度。然而，就业市场的强势与经济增速放缓之间存在矛盾，显示出美国经济在面临通胀和劳动力成本上升的双重压力下，可能会出现滞胀风险。美联储面临更为复杂的决策环境，而这种不确定性也提高了美元的避险需求。

三、美元与黄金的非传统联动现象：背后的原因美元和黄金通常呈反向关系，但近期却双双上涨，黄金价格甚至创下历史新高。出现这一现象的原因包括以下几点：全球避险情绪叠加：在大选前夕，市场对未来美国政策的不确定性加剧。投资者倾向于同时持有美元和黄金以对冲风险。这种避险情绪在大选前尤为强烈，使得两者同涨的现象较为明显。通胀压力支撑黄金需求：前文我们提到过，尽管美元走强，但核心PCE上升反映出通胀依然存在。黄金作为对抗通胀的工具，其避险和抗通胀属性吸引了大量资金涌入。市场对全球经济不确定性和通胀预期的双重担忧，使黄金继续受到追捧。美元的全球性需求增加：尽管美元走强，许多新兴市场国家和企业对美元的需求仍在增加，尤其是在本币贬值的情况下。美元的强势带动了黄金的资金流入，形成了美元和黄金的同步上涨。四、美元和黄金的未来走势展望未来，美元和黄金的联动关系是否会持续取决于多个因素。首先，美国大选的不确定性依然是推动美元和黄金双双走高的重要因素。但是，未来美元和黄金的走势一定是有面临分化的可能性。若经济增速放缓和通胀压力持续共存，可能会形成“滞胀”局面，促使投资者更多地转向黄金。若就业数据和GDP增速继续稳健，则会加大美联储收紧货币政策的预期，利好美元，但对黄金的需求可能会有所下降。

那么既然大选的结果也会影响到美元和黄金的未来走势，如果我们简单的分类讨论一下的话特朗普上任：美元强势与黄金走弱的可能性。如果特朗普当选，他可能会推行更激进的经济刺激政策，比如减税和放松企业监管，以刺激国内经济增长。这可能会提升市场对美国经济的信心，进一步支撑美元。与此同时，财政赤字的上升和政府对“美国优先”的经济立场，可能减少市场对避险资产的需求，从而压低黄金价格。哈里斯上任：美元疲软与黄金上涨的趋势。哈里斯当选后，可能会倾向于增加社会福利、推行绿色经济政策，这些政策可能带来较高的财政支出，进而加重赤字负担。这可能导致美元走弱，尤其在美国债务风险增加的情况下。此外，她的政策可能增加对黄金的需求，投资者会视黄金为对冲通胀和经济不确定性的工具，因此黄金价格可能会上涨。结语近期美元与黄金的同步上涨反映出市场对美国经济前景的不确定性和全球避险需求的增加。在美国大选和通胀风险的双重影响下，美元和黄金的“非传统联动”可能会持续一段时间。然而，随着未来更多经济数据的公布和政策走向的明朗，美元和黄金的联动趋势可能逐渐分化，投资者需密切关注以应对潜在风险。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

For years we have been told that ‘value’ will have its day again. The reasoning is vast, deep value in value versus overpriced growth, pricing in risk is stretched, the ‘free money decade is over, and growth will be left holding the bag. You can take your pick as to what reasoning you use regarding this market conundrum, but the conclusion is this.

Growth is still monstering value. Thus let’s review the ASX 200, one of the clearest ‘value’ plays out there with its high exposure to defensive, value and cycle sectors versus some of it global peers. May saw the ASX 200 index rising by just +0.9% compare this to the +4.8% rebound observed in US equities or European equities that saw gains of between 2% and 6%.

Yes, parts of Europe are more ‘value’ than the US but in the main the ASX’s underperformance is something of a continuing trend of the past decade. The drivers of the global rebound were largely influenced by weaker economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve, which indicated a lower probability of imminent interest rate hikes. Countering that for Asia (and thus Australia) was a weaker than expected rebound in China, an easing in iron ore and overall concern that Asian growth is starting to drag.

Thing is – if you look at the sectors inside the ASX the growth versus value trade is playing out here: Sector Performance Technology (+4.5%): The biggest “growth” area - Technology led the ASX gains, buoyed by the big lead player in the likes of Xero (XRO, +10.6%) and Technology One (TNE, +9.7%) which both release strong earnings numbers in the month. These results underscored the sector's potential for substantial earnings growth despite the pressure from high bond yields, which flies in the face to the macro view that growth is facing a funding issue. Furthermore - The majority of the sector's rise was attributed to actual earnings improvements rather than just price-to-earnings (PE) expansion, which has been seen in places like Staples and Discretionary.

Banks (+3.6%): Each year May is sometime renamed - Bank earning month. The lead up expectations to the release from NAB, ANZ, WBC and Macquarie were mixed. The fears from the market included: the ‘mortgage cliff’, lower new loans and margin risk.

The results even surprised the CEOs with all suggesting they were pleasantly surprise by the ‘resilience’ of banking customers this saw a positive earnings season characterised by lower-than-expected impairments and margins that were not a low as expected. Communications (-2.8%): This sector was the laggard, with a notable -4.6% decline in telecom stocks. The negative performance was driven by Telstra (TLS, -5.4%), which announced a shift away from CPI-linked post-paid mobile pricing, causing market concerns.

If there was ever a stock that highlights ‘value’ that isn’t value TLS, is it. Low project pipeline and the prospect of flat earnings and a high payout ratio makes TLS that stock that is siting no-mans-land. Key Stock Performances Aristocrat Leisure (ALL, +13.5%): ALL was the standout performer in the ASX 50, following a strong first-half 2024 earnings beat and the announcement of a strategic review of its subsidiaries BigFish and Plarium.

Negative Surprises: Several stocks experienced significant declines due to disappointing earnings. These included James Hardie Industries (JHX, -13.7%) and Sonic Healthcare (SHL, -9.1%) among large caps, and Bapcor (BAP, -26.5%), Eagers Automotive (APE, -19.9%), and Fletcher Building (FBU, -18.2%) among smaller caps. All had structural reasons for there declines – but in the main these are players are exposed to cyclical issues and either can’t grow or are areas of economic slowdown.

Getting back to market momentum Looking at the market action and momentum in May there was something of note. Buying ‘speed’ – that being a measure of positive equity market sentiment, increased to 1.21 in May from 0.68 in April, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm despite the underperformance versus global peers. Historically, when buying speed exceeds 1, ASX forward returns tend to fall below average over the following year, suggesting a potential risk of a market correction.

Additionally, June is traditionally a weaker month for ASX equity returns, often impacted by tax loss selling and other end of financial year movements. Other influences Despite a higher-than-expected CPI print in May, rate expectation interestingly enough moved into a slight dovish position (if only just). ASX Cash Futures are currently indicating a 5% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in June.

This might not seem relevant but it i a shift from a previously expected 3% chance of a rate hike. This fluctuating expectation reflects ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook is creating a risk level in bond and fixed income markets that hasn’t been seen for months. The conclusion from this is the RBA’s job is far from over and that market is clearly confused about when a rate movement in either direction will occur.

This makes the ASX momentum that much hard to gauge as it is now competing with markets that are facing definite cuts in 2024. This can explain Europe’s outperformance as during the month of May the ECB has all but declared that it will cut rates in the coming meetings even as soon as the month. While the Riksbank cut rates for the first time in over half a decade seeing the Swedish bank being the second central bank in the G10 to cut rates in 2024 behind the SNB.

The take outs? While May saw a positive, albeit modest, performance for ASX equities, driven primarily by strong earnings in the technology sector, there are several indicators suggesting caution in the coming period. The significant increase in buying euphoria points to a possible weaker June performance highlight the potential for a near-term market correction.

Then there is the cash allocation between global markets. With the slowing Chinese economy being a persistent issue, the “higher for longer” position from the RBA and then Europe and the US facing recharged economic conditions funds are likely to shift once again to the areas of growth seeing the ASX once again underperforming. Thus investors should be mindful of these risks, particularly with upcoming earnings reports and central bank decisions on the horizon.

We have been scratching our heads as to what exactly drove some of the strong price action in pairs, equities and bonds off the back of a further hawkish turn from the Fed at its June meeting. So, what exactly has promoted the moves on markets and what else should we as traders acknowledge from the Fed meeting First Powell has pointed to a positive change in the latest CPI inflation report. The 3.3% year on year rate was better than expected and is finally moving back in the right direction after the first quarter saw raises rather than declines.

Chair Powell's comments at the press conference leaned more dovish, emphasising "broad" labour market data indicating that the labour market had returned to a pre-pandemic balance. He noted that further loosening might be seen as unnecessary and expressed no concern about an overly strong labour market despite recent robust payroll readings. Here is a decent chunk of his message: "If the economy remains solid and inflation persists we're prepared to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate as long as appropriate.

If the labour market were to weaken unexpectedly or if inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we're prepared to respond. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate. We'll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks," However, he cautioned that there are clearly big areas of concern namely, owner's equivalent rent (OER) did not decelerate (again) and with an 5.3% annual rate in the latest release it is eons away from where the board needs it to be.

If OER continues at this pace, it will be challenging for the FOMC to bring inflation sustainably back to 2% or gain confidence that it is heading there. Chair Powell emphasised the need for consistent structural data reasoning to move – clear in this quote "One reading isn't enough. You don't want to be too motivated by any single data point." This is pretty clearly reflected in the latest Dot Plot, which is now signalling only cut in 2024 down from 3 at the March meeting.

We have highlighted that in the orange and blue lines that shows the marked difference between the two. The critical question now is whether there is sufficient data for the September FOMC meeting to justify starting the rate cut cycle in 2024. You only have to look at the record highs in US indices and the collapse in US yields to think September is near enough to a certainty.

Is this the view of the FOMC? The Committee will receive three more employment reports and three more CPI reports before the September meeting. Given their preference for communicating actions ahead of time, the timing of the first-rate cut will be significant and well flagged.

If you look back at the dot plots there is something clearly communicated there. Currently, 11 out of 19 board members expect to hold rates until December or even into 2025. Thus, as the majority see a holding pattern you could even argue that waiting for the fourth CPI and employment report plus 2 quarterly GDP reports if the board was to wait until November would be a more likely outcome.

Of the eight participants who favour two rate cuts this year, it's estimated that this includes three to five regional Fed Presidents that are non-voting members and have minimal influence on policy. All things being equal and judging by his public comments and history Powell is likely among those favouring a single cut, he will need to build consensus among the board members that are voting members and that appears easier said than done considering several of these players are hawks and will sit in the group that is holding rates out to 2025. To realistically consider a rate cut in September, a significant shift in data is needed in the next two months.

This is why we are asking the market – is less more? Less cuts, less clarity on inflation but clear drive into bullish positions? We know not to ‘fight momentum and the trend’.

But it is also prudent to stop and ask if a swing back is likely. Unless there is a substantial weakening in growth and employment the prospects of a September cut look poor. And, given the FOMC's cautious approach over the past 18 months and substantial lead time required for such decisions.

The consensus forecast in the labour market, sees moderation not a rapid decline, which does not support a rate cut in September. Thus mind the blow back as this concept builds momentum and shoves markets back the other way. So, what exactly has moved the dial in markets to be so positive?

We think it’s the comments he made during his press conference that somewhat poured cold water on what have traditionally been seen as bedrock data. First - Powell downplayed the importance of the Fed's summary of economic projections (SEP) and the "dots," describing them as mere possibilities. This feels like the good old days of the Yellen era where she too would remind everyone that forecasts are just that forecasts not actuals.

Will point to something that might have been missed – he also stated that officials could revise forecasts and dots after the release of CPI data, though " most don’t." Here are some of the key revisions in the SEP - an expected increase in core PCE inflation from 2.6% to 2.8%, reflecting higher-than-expected inflation in Q1 remembering that this is the measure the Fed needs to at or around 2%. The unemployment rate and GDP growth were left unchanged at 4.0% and 2.1%, respectively. Second – The dot plot projections showed an upward revision of 25 basis points for 2025.

Really this is just a push back of the rate expectation for this year. But and it is a large and consistent but – The dot plots suggest once the cuts begin the path of quarterly rate cuts once they begin cuts will be rather consistent. This view has not changed since reaching the peak of the hike cycle.

So if this is indeed the case – market positioning is banking on this time next year being the ‘middle’ of a significant rate cutting cycle.

The consensus for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is for a rise to 3.8% annually in May, the range being 3.6% to 4.0%. This would be the fourth consecutive rise in yearly inflation and would show that not only is inflation ‘sticky’ it could be considered ‘entrenched’ Monthly CPI indicator YoY% This headline will cause large initial reactions from both the FX and bond markets. Considering the hawkishness in which the governor has spoken about getting inflation back to target inside its 18-month timeframe the market will see this as another confirmation that the August meeting is more than just live but a very probable moving event.

You only have to look here at the 30-day interbank market to see long calls are being made although not at a large scale (yet). Since breaking out in late May on signs inflation has become sticky and rate rises rather than cuts are the more likely RBA response in the near term. The pair has become range bound between $0.658 and $0.672.

AUD/USD Which brings us as to why May might be the last CPI rise before it begins a long slow decline into the target range. Notable Influences on May Inflation Fuel: Prices declined significantly in May, more than offsetting April’s increase. However, they rose again during June to over 200c/l.

Food: Inflation eased modestly over the year, with restaurant meals and takeaway food prices moderating on weak demand. Rents: Returned to the average 0.7% monthly after the temporary rent assistance indexation. Clothing & Footwear: April’s unexpected price increase is expected to reverse in May amid ongoing weak retail conditions and the onset of end-of-financial-year sales.

Electricity: Victoria’s rebates expire, with significant price drops anticipated from July due to new federal and state rebates. Firstly, we need to point out that May 2023 has several factors come into play that will create an artificial upside. For example, the expiration of electricity rebates in Melbourne there are several other similar government interventions that also impact in the same way.

Then there is the persistent high inflation in sectors like insurance, which will obscure the declining progress being made in market services inflation. Now we need to highlight that the consensus view is the downward trend will resume in June, consensus forecasting (remembering that there is a lot of data that can shift this ahead of the July 31 release) for Q2 2024 headline CPI sits a 3.6% annually the RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) is at 3.8%. Prices were unusually weak in May last year, due to significant drops in domestic travel (-15.5% monthly) and fuel (-6.7% monthly), which together account for approximately 7% of the CPI basket.

Large declines of this nature are not expected to repeat this year. Additionally, rebates and changes to electricity prices as energy rebates in Victoria expire, contrasting with the quarterly payments in other states this explains why consensus has CPI falling post May. On electricity pricing expectations are for prices to fall by around 20% in July as new rebates are introduced.

Consensus also anticipates a significant drop in clothing and footwear prices, reversing the April increase. The growth in average monthly spending on clothing and footwear shown in the latest credit card data was the lowest for May since the pandemic. Then you have the seasonal decline in holiday travel and accommodation prices post-school holidays.

Put this all together and it should make plain that Wednesday’s CPI monthly read could be a trap for traders. Why? Yes continued rise in the monthly CPI indicator will be unwelcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

However, the RBA has emphasised that the quarterly CPI release remains the benchmark inflation figure in Australia. With that being the case – watch for snap back in any bullish moves in the currency. Because although its challenging to predict the trimmed mean CPI based on monthly CPI indicators.

Expectations are that core CPI (which can vary significantly from the quarterly trimmed) comes between 0.8% and 0.9% quarterly. This will be refined post the May CPI but all the same it is likely to be lower quarter on quarter. If we use the RBA’s latest forecasts the headline rate 1.0% on a quarterly basis (3.8% annually).

Trimmed mean CPI is sitting at 0.8% on a quarterly basis (3.8% annually). These are the keys to trading CPI going forward as the underlying detail will be key. First break out market services.

Watch meals out and takeaway, hairdressing services, insurance, sporting and cultural services, and sports participation. Then we need to see modest consumer spending growth for discretionary items and an easing in wages growth this would result in further disinflation for market services, which is paramount to getting inflation back into the target band. CPI Breakdown for May Category April Weight Annual % Change Monthly % Change Expected Annual % Change Food and non-alcoholic beverages 17% 3.8 0.4 3.1 Alcohol and tobacco 7% 6.5 0.0 6.4 Clothing and footwear 3% 2.4 -2.2 2.1 Housing 22% 4.9 0.5 5.3 Furnishings, household equipment & services 8% -0.8 0.3 -0.8 Health 6% 6.1 0.0 6.1 Transport 11% 4.2 -0.7 5.6 Communications 2% 2.0 0.5 1.7 Recreation & culture 13% -1.3 -3.3 -0.1 Education 4% 5.2 0.0 5.2 Insurance & financial services 5% 8.2 0.6 7.6 CPI Indicator - 3.6 -0.3 3.7