市场资讯及洞察
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上周我们看到美联储在十月的利率决议一如市场预期的进行了25个基点的降息操作,在决议公布后全球的金融市场波动较为平淡;但是重点集中在鲍威尔和记者在一些尖锐问题上的看法和一些话外音当中。利率决议重要信息总结:预期管理方面:
- 全面否认12月必定降息的预期,美联储官员内部存在分歧
- 利率已经接近中性利率,在这个观点上相较于九月来说有所提升
- 在风险平衡方面表示通胀问题暂时比就业问题影响要大
就业数据方面:
- 就是市场放缓,但是病危显著恶化
- 将主要因素归功于劳动力供给下降
通胀
- 9月CPI表现温和,剔除关税核心PCE 2.3-2.4%
- 服务通胀(除住房)“横盘”,将逐步回落
资产负债表
- 将在12月1日起停止缩表,已达“充裕储备”
- 未来再投资短期美债,缩短久期
- 准备金将随现金增长自然下降,但“不会太久”
其他方面答记者问:
- AI投资对利率不敏感,对AI泡沫化表示不是工作重点
- 车贷和商业地产的次级贷违约局部、可控,未系统性蔓延
- 银行资本十分充足,整体金融体系稳健,压力测试并无风险
对鲍威尔讲话的数据交叉验证尽管从鲍威尔本次的利率决议中我们发现市场并没有过度敏感,甚至在鲍威尔口中一切欣欣向荣,数据空窗期只给美联储的决策带来了小部分影响,但是并不会对整体经济走势带来大的逆转,所以全球市场并未表现出任何的过度恐慌和逆向交易,在短暂波动中便产生了震荡的收敛,但是事实也许并无那么乐观。就业方面:根据已知数据,美国现阶段就业“稳固”:失业4.3%(BLS数据),随后陷入了数据真空期,而我们也可以从图表中看到,失业率数据在2025年整体上呈现上升态势,也许现在的真空隐藏了数据中最会促使市场衰退恐慌的一面,而鲍威尔通过一句整体稳健维持市场对美联储决策方向的信心;恰巧利用了该真空期对市场进行议论新的预期管理。

通胀方面:如果对美国通胀进行长期的观测会看到实际上美国通胀水平已从疫情期间回归常态,而逐渐在现水平出现下行放缓的迹象,尽管鲍威尔提及了关税可能带来的影响,但是随后中美会谈对关税带来的通胀影响实际上是多方利好,从通胀角度看,美联储的压力将会逐步缩减,但是也从长期中可以关注为何鲍威尔会重点强调中性利率的攀升,而这也会对市场对长期的利率预期产生一定程度的影响。

美国现在的次级贷问题:近期市场十分关注的二手车暴雷事件在两周前引起了一波小范围的恐慌,本次利率决议记者也就该问题对鲍威尔进行了相关问答,美联储主席在该话题上表现得非常含糊粉饰太平,基本上话语中处处透露本次事件影响范围较小,不会带来较大范围的扩散和金融市场的整体压力,但是实际数据并非如此支持。

从真实数据上看多重数据显示房地产由于受到了08年的教训影响,整体违约率水平处于低位看起来并不存在大范围暴雷的潜在危机,但是二手车和商业地产确实实打实的在数据上已经亮起了黄灯。如果接下来出现中等银行的挤兑和暴雷那将是对金融系统带来真正意义上的考验。结论来看:从近期中美更新合作协议,降低关税来看,美国的通胀压力或将不会过度挤压美联储后续的政策空间,但是美国的失业率真空也许会在公布后给美国带来一定程度的惊吓,而鲍威尔尽管言辞已经极其谨慎仍然在次级贷近期的问题上表态过于乐观,各类型数据并不支持该市场不存在隐患的定论,对于风险偏好类的投资,也许赛道的拥挤或将拱火危机进行进一步发酵,所以在投资偏好和风险均摊上投资者应进行更进一步的风险管理。
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - S Scalp "Scalping" is the process of opening and closing a position very quickly, with the goal of profiting from small price movements. SEC The SEC is the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It is the government agency which regulates markets United States to protect investors.
It also oversees mergers and acquisitions of companies. Sectors A sectors is a division within an economy or market, used for analysing and comparing companies with activities and interests. Share buyback A share buyback is when a company buys back its own shares back from private investors.
Once shares are bought back by the company they are considered cancelled, but can be redistribution in the future. Share buybacks are sometimes done as a tax-efficient way to return money to shareholders. Learn more about Share Buybacks Share price The share or stock price is the amount it costs to buy a single share of a company.
This price is determined by the market and fluctuates. Share prices typically increase when a company is regarded as having a promising future, or when it reports better than expected earnings, and will fall when reporting missed expectations. Share prices may also fall following news or events expected to impact the company negatively.
Shares (stocks, cash equities) A shares is a unit of ownership in a company, usually traded on the stock market. They are also referred to as cash equities or stocks. Short Short describes a trade that will incur profit if the asset being traded decreases in price.
This is also referred to as going short, shorting or short-selling. Learn more about Short Trading Short squeeze When an asset starts to move up in price, this can cause traders holding short positions to rush to cover their positions and minimize potential losses. Learn more about Short Squeeze Short-selling The act of selling an asset that you do not currently own.
The hope of short-selling is that the asset will decrease in value, at which point the trader can close their trade for a profit. In contrast to this, if a shorted asset rises in value, closing the position results in a loss for the trader. Slippage Slippage is when the price an order is executes at does not match the price at which it was made.
Smart order router (Smart order routing) Smart order routing is an automated online trading process that looks for trading liquidity, and is used as an indicator in certain trading strategies. SNB Abbreviation for the Swiss National Bank, the central bank for Switzerland. Spot Price The spot price refers to the price of an asset at any given time, available for immediate purchase/delivery at that moment.
Spread Spread refers to the difference in price between the bid(buy) and offer(sell) price for a tradable asset. Stock exchange A stock exchange is a centralised location where a publicly traded companies shares are traded. Stock exchanges tradable assets are limited to stocks, bonds and exchange traded products.
There are many major stock exchanges operating in different countries, e.g. the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq in the United States, the Japan Exchange Group, Honk Kong Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Swiss Exchange, and more. Stock index A stock index is a group of shares used to paint a general picture of a particular sector, exchange or economy. Stock indexes are typically made from a certain number of the top shares from a given exchange, e.g. the ASX200 is based on the 200 largest stocks listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.
Stock symbol A stock symbol is an abbreviation used to identify the shares of a publicly traded companies. e.g. the stock symbol of Apple Inc. on the Nasdaq is NASDAQ:AAPL. Stop Loss Order A stop loss is a limit order which triggers a trade at a predetermined price. Stop loss orders are useful for closing positions in response to a sudden unfavorable market movement, e.g. in the event the value of an asset suddenly crashes, a stop loss order can automatically sell the asset when it reaches a specified price to limit losses, rather than continuing to hold the asset while it continues to fall in value.
Strike Price The strike price is the agreed price for an underlying asset, this price forms the basis of an options contract. Support level Support level refers to a price price which a given asset may have difficulty falling below, due to a majority of traders looking to buy around this price. Swaps Learn more about Swaps.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - R Rally A rally refers to the price of an asset undergoing sustained upward momentum over a period of time. Range Range is the difference between a market’s lowest and highest point over a specified period of time. If a market has a wide range during a given period this is an indication of high volatility, and may be utilized in certain trading strategies.
Rate-of-return ROR, Rate-of-return, is the profit or loss of an investment over a given period. ROR is expressed as a percentage, with a positive ROR reflecting that an investment has returned a profit, while a negative ROR means a loss. Ratio spread Ratio spread options trading strategy where a trader will hold an unequal number of buy and sell positions on a single underlying asset at the same time.
Reserves Reserves are the liquid assets set aside for future use by a trader. Reserves can be held in the form of commodities, such as gold, but usually traders will keep cash as it is more immediately accessible. Resistance level Resistance level is the price at which an assets upward price trajectory is hindered by an overwhelming demand to sell the asset.
When an asset appears to be nearing a resistance level, traders may close their position in order to take profit, rather than risk the price falling to a lower price. Reversal (Trend reversal) A reversal is a change of direction in the price movement of an asset, e.g. when an upward trend becomes a downward trend, or vice versa. Rights issue When a company offers existing shareholders the opportunity to buy additional shares for a discounted price, this is referred to as a Rights issue.
The discounted price will usually only be available for a brief period, before returning to the normal price. Learn more about Rights issues Risk management Risk management refers to a variety of processes or strategies, the ultimate goal of which is to identify the potential risk of investments and mitigate potential losses. Risks In trading, "risk" refers to any potential event or circumstance in which and investment can lose money.
Regulatory News Service (UK) The RNS is responsible for disseminating information on behalf of UK publicly listed companies. The RNS operates as part of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and provides companies with information to help them to meet their regulatory disclosure obligations. ROCE (Return on capital employed) ROCE refers to a long-term profitability ratio which measures how effectively capital is used by a company, e.g. profit generated for each each dollar used.
Rollover A rollover refers to keeping a position open beyond its expiry date. Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI is a tool used in technical analysis to gauge whether an asset is potentially overbought or oversold, and to predict if a rally or correction may be imminent. Learn more about RSI.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Q Quantitative easing An economic monetary policy intended to lower interest rates and increase money supply can be defined as Quantitative easing (QE). It saw an increase in profile and use after the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession. Quote currency The second currency listed in a forex pair is termed as the quote currency.
It is also known as the counter currency. Quote The price at which an asset was last traded, or the price at which it can be currently bought or sold is defined as Quote

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - O OCO (one cancels the other) OCO allows many orders to be placed at once. Whichever order is filled first will cancel the other automatically. OCO can be used to close an existing position or take advantage of market volatility.
Learn more about OCO Off book trades An "off-book" trade refers to trading shares outside of an exchange or regulated body. Off-book traders are usually executed via the over-the-counter (OTC) market, and made directly between two parties. Offer The term "offer" describes when one trader expresses an intention to buy a financial instrument or asset from another trader.
On exchange On exchange refers to a trade is taking place directly on an order book. On-balance volume (OBV) On-balance volume is a method of technical analysis where traders make predictions about an asset's future price movements based on its previous trading volume. OBV is regularly used in shares trading as volume has a large influence how a share price moves.
OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, Venezuela. Other countries that have since joined OPEC since include the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of the Congo and Ecuador. Learn more about OPEC Open (Market) The market "open" can refer to the daily opening of an exchange Open (order/position) An open order refers to an outstanding trading order/position that has not yet been filled/closed.
When a trade is executed, or a position closed, the profits and losses a are realised and the trade is no longer open. Option Options are a type of derivative specifically linked to an underlying asset. The Buyer of an option has the choice of whether or not to receive futures relating to an asset at a predetermined price, volume and expiry date.
Order An "order" is a request sent to a broker or trading platform instructing them to execute a particular trade. OTC trade (Over the Counter) An OTC trade is an agreement between two parties, not executed through an exchange. This allows increased flexibility compared to trading on the market, as contractual terms can be negotiated directly between the two parties.
Overexposure Overexposure refers to a trader taking on too much risk. A typical instance of this is when a trader invests too much capital in a single position or market; putting the trader in the position where an unfavorable movement of a single instrument can result in dramatic losses.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - P Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) A company's P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the company’s market value per share by its earnings per share, and is a method for measuring a company’s value. Learn more about P/E ratios Learn more about P/E red flags Parent company Parent company refers to the entity which has a majority or controlling interest in another company, giving it the right to control the subsidiary’s operations. Pip A 'pip' is a measurement of movement in Forex trading; it is the smallest amount that a currency can change.
Pip value The pip value is the value attributed to a single pip move in a Forex (FX) trade. Purchasing managers index (PMI) PMI is an indicator of the health of a particular sector within an economy. Learn more about PMI Portfolio (Investment portfolio) Portfolio refers to the collection of assets held by a trader or trading entity, this can include shares, commodities, bonds, derivatives etc.
Position "Position" refers to an open trade, held by a trader, that is able to incur a profit or loss. Once a trade has been closer or canceled, the trader no longer holds that position. The actual profit or loss of a trade is not realised until the position has been closed.
Position Sizing Learn more about Position Sizing. Power of attorney (POA) Power of attorney gives another person or entity legal authority to act on your behalf. In trading, this means access to financial resources, trading accounts, the ability to open or close trading positions etc.
If POA is given to a legal entity, representatives within that entity authorized to act on your behalf will be listed specifically. Profit and loss (P&L) A profit and loss statement is a financial report summarizing a company’s gross revenue, expenses and profit. It provides traders and investors with a snapshot of how well a company is operating and it's potential to generate profit.
Pullback A pullback is a temporary dip an asset’s otherwise current trend. Not to be confused with a reversal, which is a longer term switch in an assets (previously) trending direction. Put Option A 'Put Options' is a contract giving a trader the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific amount of an underlying contract, at a specific price, at a specific time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - N Net change Net change refers to the difference between the closing price of the current trading session and the closing price of the previous trading session. This can be positive or negative, and simply represents whether a market is up or down compared to the previous day. Net income Net income is the total amount of profit made by an organization after all expenses, depreciation, amortization, interest, taxes etc. are deducted from it's gross income.
NIKKEI The NIKKEI index is the leading 225 stocks traded on Tokyo's Stock Exchange. Non-current assets Non-current assets are company’s long-term investments of which the full value will not be realized during the current accounting year, such as land holdings. Non-farm payrolls Non-farm payrolls gives monthly statistics describing number of people who are employed in construction, manufacturing and goods companies in the US.
Also referred to as NFP's. Learn more about Non-farm payrolls